Kris Letang

Arbitration Breakdown: Brian Dumoulin

July 22, 2017 at 7:20 pm CDT | by Seth Lawrence 1 Comment

With the reports of a huge financial gap between the two parties, it seems quite likely that Brian Dumoulin will reach his arbitration date. Whether the team can hammer out a deal before needing to accept that decision remains to be seen. They are still far apart in terms of value according to Elliotte Friedman, as the team only offered $1.95 MM compared to his agent’s number of $4.35 MM. Dumoulin has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh for their two Stanley Cup runs, but he has a difficult quantitative case to make to earn the money he is seeking.

The Numbers

Dumoulin was huge in the absence of Kris Letang. When the Penguins’ top defender was again sidelined to injury, Dumoulin’s ice-time skyrocketed to first-pairing usage. He finished the season with an average ice time of 20:33, but often saw far more down the stretch. In the playoffs, he averaged 21:59. Those are the numbers of an upper echelon second-pairing defenseman, but when you consider that he almost never sees powerplay time, and the defensive situations he is trusted in, he’s a borderline top-pairing player.

Dumoulin isn’t an offensive force in any regard. He’s only tallied 33 points through his 163 regular season games played, and 3 of his 5 career goals come from post-season action. Still, he can move the puck with relative efficiency and can be relied on to tally a little under 20 assists a season.

Dumoulin faces tough quality-of-competition, and that will be his biggest argument for the compensation he is seeking. However, his Corsi and Fenwick, the most utilized advanced statistics, don’t show improvement for the player last year. When these stats are taken without context, Dumoulin’s 2016-17 playoffs was his worst outing to date. He had a brutal 41.2% Corsi For through 25 post-season contests, down from his 2015-16 run’s 52.8%. His regular season totals showed a less drastic ’decline’, but the tougher minutes and far greater shots allowed team-wide brought his advanced statistics back down to merely average. He has shots blocked (99) and penalty killing prowess to turn to, but those are difficult figures to primarily base a case for a raise upon.

Potential Comparables

Here are some comparable players and their contracts.

Travis Hamonic (Calgary) – Although it may seem an odd comparison to some, the underlying numbers for these players aren’t dissimilar. Both have never broken 5 goals in a season and neither scores a particularly impressive amount of points. They are physical without being intimaditing and can skate well enough to survive in today’s NHL. They both block shots with consistency and contribute over 20 minutes of icetime a night. Hamonic signed his long-term deal worth $3.86 MM all the way back in 2013, which was a bit of an overpayment at the time in hopes of keeping the AAV down as he progressed. This seems a little under what most players with the skillset are looking for in 2017, but it’s an interesting parallel.

Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders) – Dumoulin’s contract will be a bit of a barometer for the Isles’ de Haan, as it will show the direction the arbiters are leaning on not-so-flashy defenders. As the only other RFA defenseman other than Vegas’ Nate Schmidt likely to earn more than $2 MM, de Haan and the Islanders will be watching the outcome of this case to determine who has greater leverage. De Haan still has great upside, but has played in a far more sheltered role on a deep defense.

Cody Ceci (Ottawa) – Ceci is not considered to be quite the asset that Dumoulin is, but seeing as his contract was awarded merely a year ago, this sort of bargain is what the Penguins are likely aiming toward. Ceci signed a two-year deal worth only $2.8 MM a season, after a 10 goal, 26 point season where he averaged nearly 19 minutes a night. Dumoulin has never seen that kind of production, but up until last season comparatively played against greater competition. Ceci is due for another arbitration hearing at the conclusion of the 2017-18 campaign, as his past contract was a sort of bridge deal.

Jacob Trouba (Winnipeg) – Again, another bargain for a defenseman that was handed out last season. Trouba’s negotiations dragged on into the regular season, before he finally accepted a two-year agreement, with the first year at $3.31 MM and the second year at $2.81 MM. Trouba is much more offensive than Dumoulin, but has generally seen more icetime and a similar difficulty of competition. Just like the Penguins, there was a large degree of disagreement in the financial value of the player between the organization and the agent. Dumoulin has championship pedigree to tout at his hearing, however, whereas Trouba was largely banking on his potential as a former first-rounder.

Projection

Dumoulin is an interesting case because he is undoubtedly an integral piece of the Pittsburgh blueline, but has little outside of truly advanced statistics to prove his case. How much will their championship runs inflate his value? How much is a stay-at-home defender worth, especially when his possession numbers have taken a hit?

Ultimately, if Dumoulin were a UFA rather than a RFA, he’d easily attract contract offers around $5 MM. As an RFA however, his predecessors haven’t seen a whole lot of success in proving their case. Shots blocked and plus minus are nice, but considering the trend of the league, they are not going to benefit his standing all that much. A lot of Dumoulin’s value is hard to quantify, and there’s the very real possibility that his bargaining position suffers as a result. Ultimately, his exposure in two long playoff runs will bring his value back to a fairer mark, and he will earn far more than the team’s ask of $1.9 MM. Somewhere in the range of $3 MM seems the likely award if the arbitration decision is actually needed. However, it’s unlikely that the parties don’t come to a longer-term agreement before that time. The Penguins need to lock him down as part of their defense, and a multi-year contract at around $4 MM is probable. GM Jim Rutherford will likely posture til the last conceivable minute, but his internal value is far too great to risk him walking in summer free agency in the next two years.

Penguins Sign Defenseman Kevin Czuczman

July 11, 2017 at 10:57 am CDT | by Zach Leach 1 Comment

Last off-season, the Pittsburgh Penguins went on a signing spree, inking a whole bunch of defenseman with even the slightest NHL experience to two-way deals in hopes that bolstering their defensive depth would pay off. The 2016 names included Chad Ruhwedel, Cameron Gaunce, Steve Oleksy, David Warsofsky, Stuart Percy, and Tim Erixon. After a season where their NHL defensive corps suffered injury after injury and the AHL depth was constantly called upon, even earning Ruhwedel a new contract, the Penguins are back at it again this summer. New additions already include Zach Trotman, Jarred Tinordi, Chris Summers, and an extension for Trade Deadline acquisition Frank Corrado as well.

Add another name to the list, as the Penguins announced today that they have signed Kevin Czuczman to a one-year, two-way deal worth the $650K minimum at the NHL level. Czuczman spent the 2016-17 season with the AHL’s Manitoba Moose on a minor league contract, but posted the best scoring numbers of his entire hockey career, with 32 points in 76 games. The former Lake Superior State standout has NHL experience as well, as he signed with the New York Islanders out of college in 2014 and played in 13 games down the stretch with the team, recording two points. Since, Czuczman bounced around the Islanders’ minor league affiliates and then moved to Manitoba, establishing himself as a good defensive defenseman and a locker room leader along the way. Czuczman will provide some solid stay-at-home depth for a team that often lacks that type of player.

Will Czuczman see any NHL action in 2017-18 though? Probably not. The Penguins’ top six of Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, Olli Maatta, Ian Cole, and newcomer Matt Hunwick is well-established and Ruhwedel has likely earned the #7 spot. Down in Wilkes-Barre, Corrado and Derrick Pouliot will push for roster spots and, assuming they fall short, will certainly be the first call-ups. Trotman, who played in large chunks of the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons with the Boston Bruins, and Tinordi, who was a spot starter for the Montreal Canadiens for years, are then next up on the depth chart. That would make Czuczman approximately 12th on the Pittsburgh organizational depth chart. With all that said, if any team is gonna blow through eleven defenders this season, it’s the injury-prone Penguins. Czuczman chose his new home wisely.

Leafs’ Cap Woes Not Yet Fatal

July 9, 2017 at 6:12 pm CDT | by Seth Lawrence 2 Comments

Much has been made by the Toronto media in recent months regarding the team’s future cap situation. Currently, they sit at $3.929 MM over the cap ceiling. That issue is relatively unimportant considering the players that will end up on long-term injured reserve, but the sudden pressure of being “in the red” has started to make analysts nervous about the team’s future. The man source of concern surrounds the three star youngsters, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, who will all need contracts before 2019-20. The 21 year-old Nylander’s RFA year is 2018-19 so his contract will be the first domino to fall.

Recently, Howard Berger penned an article proposing the necessity of moving on from one of Marner or Nylander due to impending budget restraints, and he ultimately advocated for the movement of the latter. The Toronto Star’s Damien Cox takes a more comprehensive look at the situation, but ultimately comes down with a fatalistic view of the situation – that it can only be rectified by abandoning one of these players in their primes. The author postulates that an approximate “37 percent of Toronto’s payroll” could be sacrificed to just that trio, estimating that the cap will rise only moderately (likely true).

There’s a very solid possibility that Toronto is overvaluing their own players’ worth a tad. There is also the incredible probability that one of the three may have a setback year, at least points-wise, which will bring a contract back down into reasonable territory. Matthews may not even make $10 MM on his first deal, and Marner and Nylander look to be only slightly more valuable collectively contract wise than say, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat. Will the contracts be expensive? Absolutely. But will the three earn $30 MM combined? Not likely.

Ultimately, Toronto has difficult decisions ahead. Cox was correct in his assessment that Toronto is “going for it” now – the Patrick Marleau and depth player signings confirm that the team wants to compete in the short-term. But the long-term prospects probably don’t include sacrificing any of these players. With a combined cap devotion of slightly above 30%, the situation is entirely manageable. The go-to example for star-power, of course, should be the Pittsburgh Penguins who have successfully shuffled accessory pieces out as they begin to become overpaid. Their big three – Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang account for $25.45 MM of the team’s salary, a solid 34.8% of the allowable cap last season. Toronto fans shouldn’t start hitting the panic button, and internally the course ahead financially is likely already plotted. The team will need to find players on cheap contracts and hunt for bargains, while moving out older expensive pieces as the core group matures. Adding Marleau for a third season also wasn’t particularly helpful as 2019-20 will be the tightest fit. That said, Marner and Nylander shouldn’t start packing their bags just yet.

RFAs Headed For Payday In Arbitration

July 5, 2017 at 8:09 pm CDT | by Seth Lawrence 2 Comments

As the list of the players who have filed for arbitration was released earlier today by the NHLPA, a few names stick out as those due a meaningful raise. Arbitration is a tricky process to reliably predict, but it’s a safe bet these names will see their cap hit rise substantially.

Brian Dumoulin – D – Pittsburgh Penguins

There was a time when the young Dumoulin was a well-kept secret in the league, overshadowed by the far flashier play of Kris Letang. Dumoulin’s accolades this last playoff year certainly didn’t go unnoticed, and as the lone defensive defenseman in their core group, he probably holds the greatest job security on the team’s blueline. He doesn’t put up points – only one goal in the last two seasons, but he blocks shots and drives possession while eating a ton of minutes against top competition. As analytics are utilized more and more, his case only gets stronger. A contract well over $4 MM is certainly looking possible.

Colton Parayko – D – St. Louis Blues

This is the name seen most commonly associated with offer-sheets this summer, and with good reason. Parayko plays with the mentality of an old-time defenseman, but he can skate quite well for a large (6’6) man. He’s only had two seasons in the NHL, but he’s impressed since he first took the ice. Again, he isn’t a massive offensive force (he scored 3 goals last season), but he’s already averaging over 21 minutes a night with near equal starts in both the offensive and defensive zone. He’ll be hurt by the quantifiable stats factor, but he’s a big body with a rare right-handed shot to boot. This contract could look relatively cheap compared to his next, if he continues along this course. He should cost around $5.5 MM.

Ondrej Palat – F – Tampa Bay Lightning

Others will look to the undersized center Tyler Johnson as most likely to get a payday. But don’t over look Palat’s consistency – it may give him an edge with arbiters. Johnson does have his 72 point campaign to lean on, but that was now two full seasons ago. The fact that both players couldn’t break 20 goals in the last two seasons will bring their prices back down to Earth. Palat has grown into his role on the team and back-checks with a ferocity not often seen in younger stars. Johnson is no slouch either – they’ve both accumulated Selke votes over the years. These are two pivotal pieces of the Lightning, and their upcoming contracts were a big reason Jonathan Drouin was traded away to Montreal. GM Steve Yzerman will happily lock both up, but he will be hoping for figures under the $6 MM mark.

Viktor Arvidsson – F – Nashville Predators

This would have been an unlikely name on such a list even last December, when you consider how truly meteoric Arvidsson’s rise was. His value in arbitration will be deeply interesting – the shifty winger has played himself into the core of the team within a season. He really only has 2016-17 and the long playoff run to hang his hat on, as he scored only 16 points through 56 games in 2015-16. This year was a remarkable offensive explosion, with 30 goals and 31 assists. At only 5’9, Arvidsson has really shocked many onlookers by how easily he’s adapted to the physicality of the NHL game. His talent has never been in question, and with his production now well-established, it’s safe to believe he’s going to get a cushy award. How bad the damage will be is going to affect Nashville’s cap going forward – I suspect over $5 MM, but there are few comparables.

Mikael Granlund – F – Minnesota Wild

Granlund is perhaps slightly more enticing league wide than fellow Wild RFA Nino Niederreiter. He’s a marginally more cerebral player, and he plays the valuable center position. Neiderreiter is the more natural goal-scorer and larger frame, but Granlund has better PPG and has broken 30 assists thrice. Both players will get paid, as they both broke 25 goals last season and will be important pieces in the State of Hockey for some time. I think the more interesting thing to watch here is whether the Wild play it safe with Granlund and take a one year deal, or attempt to lock him up for longer. This was the first season he really scored with any consistency, but the Wild have shown their faith in the player by continually giving him over 17 minutes of icetime even when he struggled to produce. A one-year would easily command over $5 MM, whereas a longer deal could bring cost down.

Pittsburgh Penguins Re-Sign Justin Schultz

July 1, 2017 at 4:35 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

The Pittsburgh Penguins have re-signed one of their most important pieces, inking Justin Schultz to a three-year, $16.5MM contract. The deal runs through 2019-20, after which Schultz will become an unrestricted free agent.

Schultz has had his career completely resuscitated since joining the high-flying Penguins last season. Signing as a big-name college free agent, he struggled for parts of four seasons in Edmonton before being shipped for a third-round pick at the 2016 deadline. Schultz went on to win the Stanley Cup in back-to-back seasons, and was especially important this last post-season, helping fill the void left by the injury to Kris Letang.

Schultz is known primarily as an offensive defenseman. His isn’t overly physical and generally isn’t played in shutdown situations. However, he was far from sheltered last season in Pittsburgh, playing over 20 minutes a night in the regular season against quality competition, generally being slotted alongside the stay-at-home Ian Cole on the second pairing. Schultz finished the season with 51 points, good for 7th among all NHL defenseman. Notably, he finished within 5 points of household names like Duncan Keith, Kevin Shattenkirk, and Dustin Byfuglien. He was a solid shooting option on the powerplay and truly flourished once May rolled around, adding 4 goals and 9 assists as he utilized a solid first-pass to spring the more threatening Pittsburgh forwards.

His $5.5 MM cap hit is likely more than what GM Jim Rutherford had expected to set aside for him when acquired just over a season ago. Fellow restricted free-agent Brian Dumoulin is also looking to get a payday this summer, so it remains to be seen whether some money may be moving out from the defense corps. A possible target could be Olli Maatta who is coming off a sluggish year, and is earning $4.083 MM for the next 5 seasons. Dumoulin and Schultz have definitively passed Maatta on the depth chart, and this sort of financial commitment will only add fuel to the fire that Maatta is the odd man out.

Deadline Approaches To Ask Players To Waive No-Movement Clauses

June 12, 2017 at 11:57 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 2 Comments

On the heels of yesterday’s report that both Keith Yandle and Dion Phaneuf had been asked to waive their no-movement clauses in order to be exposed for the upcoming expansion draft, speculation is running rampant around the league on who else will be asked. Below is the full list of players who currently require protection due to their clauses. The deadline to submit a request to a player is 4pm CDT today, while the player must inform the team of his decision by the same time on Friday June 16th. Because the Stanley Cup Finals ended last night, Nashville and Pittsburgh will not receive an extension and will need to submit their requests at the same time as every other team.

Elliotte Friedman was on Sportsnet radio today and mentioned that the Anaheim Ducks have spoken with Kevin Bieksa about possibly waiving his clause, something examined at length in our recent Ducks Expansion Primer.

Anaheim (4)
Kevin Bieksa — Expected to be asked.
Ryan Getzlaf
Ryan Kesler
Corey Perry

Arizona (1)
Alex Goligoski

Boston (4)
David Backes
Patrice Bergeron
Zdeno Chara
David Krejci

Pittsburgh Penguins Win The 2017 Stanley Cup

June 11, 2017 at 10:01 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 37 Comments

After a back-and-forth battle and a goaltending showcase for the ages, the Pittsburgh Penguins finally broke a 0-0 tie with the Nashville Predators with 1:35 remaining in the third period of Game Six on Sunday night and added a empty netter with seconds left to take a 2-0 win and capture the 2017 Stanley Cup title. The Penguins successfully defended their 2016 championship to become the first team since the Detroit Red Wings in 1997 and 1998 to win back-to-back titles. It is the first time in the salary cap era of NHL hockey that any team has won consecutive Stanley Cups.

On their road to another championship, the Penguins entered as the #2 seed out of the Atlantic Division and wiped out the upstart Columbus Blue Jackets in just five games. Pittsburgh then took on the top-seeded Washington Capitals, knocking out the President’s Trophy-winners for the second straight season, in a hard-fought seven-game series. The Ottawa Senators, out of the Atlantic Division, also took the Penguins to a Game Seven in the Eastern Conference final, but again the Penguins were victorious. The Stanley Cup Final was a face-off against an unexpected opponent, a Nashville Predators team that had entered as the second wild card team in the Western Conference and the 16th-seed overall, but swept the powerhouse Chicago Blackhawks and beat both the St. Louis Blues and Anaheim Ducks in six games. The performance of the Predators and the enthusiasm of the city of Nashville should not be understated and will likely be how many remember the 2017 playoffs. However, the Penguins were too much for the Predators, outscoring Nashville 17-4 in their four wins, including a shutout in the series-clinching win on the road.

The Conn Smythe Trophy, awarded to the MVP of the Stanley Cup playoffs, was given to Sidney Crosby. The captain of the team and the NHL’s leading scorer, Crosby notched 8 goals and 19 assists on his way to the title. Crosby became just the third player to ever win back-to-back Conn Smythe Trophy’s, joining Bernie Parent and Penguins owner Mario Lemieux. Other standouts of the playoff run include Crosby’s partner in crime, Evgeni Malkin, who outscored the captain by one point to lead all postseason scorers with ten goals and 18 assists. Both goalies, veteran Marc-Andre Fleury and rookie Matt Murray were phenomenal, with Fleury winning nine games while Murray was sidelined, and the youngster taking over to win the final seven and take home his second Stanley Cup despite still being a rookie. Murray posted a .931 save percentage and 1.87 goals against average in 10 appearance as he continues to develop a legacy as a clutch performer. Chris Kunitz lifted the Stanley Cup for the fourth time, the most among active players, while on the flip side trade deadline acquisition Ron Hainsey, who at 35 years old had never even played in the postseason, made the most of his first appearance. Justin Schultz was incredible as the surrogate leader of the defense for the sidelined Kris Letang, as he fought through injuries himself and posted 12 points during the Cup run. And who could forget rookie Jake Guentzel, who led the team with 13 goals, including an amazing five game-winners. In an ironic twist, Patric Hornqvist the final pick of the NHL Draft by the Nashville Predators in the same year that Crosby went #1, got the game winning goal to deny his former franchise their first ever Stanley Cup.

The frightening part for NHL fans is that, unlike their dynastic rivals in Chicago among others, the Penguins should remain largely intact heading into 2017-18. Fleury will likely be gone, but is no longer the starter anyway. Several veteran defenseman and bottom-six forwards could go as well, but Pittsburgh will for the most part return at full strength in October as they look to keep this incredible streak going. Crosby is still just 29 years old and he and the Penguins are far from finished. Congratulations to the 2017 Stanley Cup champs from the staff at PHR.

Penguins Will Have Lots Of Offseason Decisions To Make On ‘D’

June 11, 2017 at 12:30 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 4 Comments

The Pittsburgh Penguins are just one win away from capturing their second straight Stanley Cup title with Game 6 tonight, but they’ve done it throughout the playoffs with one of the most unheralded defensive corps possible. With two-time all-star Kris Letang out for the season with neck surgery he underwent on Apr. 13, the team has played without a star defenseman and it showed early in this series when the Predators dominated in Games 1 and 2. However, the defense held together and took things a step further the other day in Game 5 when the defense dominated on both offense and defense. They got two goals and three assists during that victory.

That defense, made up of Olli Maatta, Ian Cole, Trevor Daley, Ron Hainsey, Brian Dumoulin and Justin Schultz, has held tough and just might be increasing their stock as the offseason approaches for them in the next few days. The Penguins may have a few offseason issues to deal with in the upcoming weeks when it comes to their defense. While Letang is locked up until 2021-22 ($7.5MM), only two others are officially under contract for next year. The 22-year-old Matta is also under contract until 2021-22 ($4.083MM) and Cole has one more year left at $2.1MM. The rest are all free agents with Daley and Hainsey listed as unrestricted free agents, while Dumoulin and Schultz are both restricted free agents who should command more than they made this past year.

Daley played a much stronger game in Game 5 and was able to move the puck much more quickly in that performance. He is completing a six-year deal ($3.3MM) and the Penguins must decide if they want to bring the 33-year old back next season. He played in just 56 games and had 5 goals and 14 assists for 19 points, but has had a goal and five assists in the playoffs, including a key assist in Game 5. Hainsey came over as a rental from Carolina at the trade deadline. The 36-year-old is finishing up a three-year deal in which he was getting $2.833MM per season. Hainsey finished the season with four goals and 13 assists, but has proven valuable in the playoffs which could net him a solid offer next year. The veteran has put up two goals and six assists during the playoffs despite struggling to keep up with the top line.

The Penguins must also make key decisions on the restricted front. Dumoulin is wrapping up his second full season with Pittsburgh. The 25-year-old has played solidly and should get quite an increase from the $800,000 he is currently making. Dumoulin, a gifted young defender, scored one goal and added 14 assists this season, while adding a goal and five assists in the playoffs this year. He’s even been mentioned as a possible expansion candidate if the team trades backup goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury. Finally, Schultz is coming off a breakout year. After taking a paycut last year from $3.9MM in 2015-16 to $1.4MM this year, the 26-year-old will be looking for a long term deal after putting up 12 goals and 39 assists this past year. His playoff performance should also improve his stock with four goals and eight assists so far.

The Penguins should have plenty of questions to answer once they reach the offseason.

Morning Notes: Letang, Knoblauch, Vegas

June 7, 2017 at 10:50 am CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

Though he’s already been ruled out for the remainder of the Stanley Cup Finals, Kris Letang was on the ice today before Penguins practice skating alone and without equipment. Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star provided some video evidence, but it’s safe to say he wasn’t going full out. Letang is just two months into his rehab following neck surgery, which originally came with a four to six month recovery timetable.

It’s a great sign to see Letang back on the ice after such a disastrous season. Missing time with various ailments, the 30-year old defender only played in 41 regular season games and has missed the entire Cup run. With five years remaining on his current contract, the Penguins need him to come back strong and healthy next season.

Kris Knoblauch has been hired in Philadelphia as an assistant coach, joining Dave Hakstol’s team. Knoblauch has been the head coach of the Erie Otters for the past five seasons, coaching players like Connor McDavid, Connor Brown, Andre Burakovsky, Dylan Strome and many others. Before that, he was the bench boss for the Kootenay Ice for two seasons, and won a WHL championship as a first-year head coach. His squads qualified for the Memorial Cup twice (including this year), but weren’t able to capture the trophy. He’ll replace the outgoing Joey Mullen and could even provide the Flyers with some extra OHL insight for the upcoming draft. Though it’s unlikely the Flyers would take an OHL player at #2, they do have ten other picks in the draft this year.
Vegas is setting up to do some dealing this week, as George McPhee told Dan Marrazza of NHL.com. In all of his talks with the media, McPhee has seemed confident that several deals will be completed before the expansion draft. “We’ve had some real good discussions and I expect some things will start happening next week,” McPhee told Marrazza, a similar sentiment to the one he shared with Pierre LeBrun in their recent sit-down for TSN. There is even a mention of three-way deals that Vegas could facilitate, transactions that are rarely seen in the NHL. The Golden Knights could potentially sign free agents for teams ahead of time as well, during their exclusive negotiating window starting June 17th. There will be a freeze placed on any transactions around the league, except for the ones Vegas can make with UFAs or unprotected RFAs. It should make for an exciting week.

Expansion Primer: Pittsburgh Penguins

June 3, 2017 at 8:51 pm CDT | by Seth Lawrence 2 Comments

Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

With the Penguins up two games to zero in the Stanley Cup Finals, the team’s success under the guidance of GM Jim Rutherford cannot be understated. Potential back-to-back championships following a long list of playoff disappointments and identity crises would all but erase the sting of many poor management decisions under former GM Ray Shero.

After the acquisition of Phil Kessel, the team has not looked back in the slightest offensively. They sat out and relished their summer last off-season with minimal movement, but this year Rutherford has decisions to make. Although the makeup of the team will surely be different come October, there are many options to be considered.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Sidney Crosby (NMC), Evgeni Malkin (NMC), Phil Kessel (NMC), Patric Hornqvist, Carl Hagelin, Bryan Rust, Tom Kuhnhackl, Scott Wilson, Josh Archibald (RFA), Oskar Sundqvist (RFA), Jean-Sebastien Dea (RFA)

Defense:

Kris Letang (NMC), Olli Maatta, Ian Cole, Brian Dumoulin (RFA), Derrick Pouliot (RFA), Justin Schultz (RFA), Frank Corrado (RFA), Tim Erixon (RFA), Stuart Percy (RFA)

Goalies:

Marc-Andre Fleury (NMC), Matt Murray

Jake Guentzel, Conor Sheary, Daniel Sprong, Carter Rowney, Tristan Jarry, Zach Aston-Reese, Thomas DiPauli, Teddy Blueger, Dominik Simon, Jeff Taylor, Ethan Prow, Lukas Bengtsson, Sean Maguire

Key Decisions

To get the elephant in the room cleared aside, it seems a foregone conclusion that Marc-Andre Fleury will waive his No Movement Clause in order for the franchise to protect Matt Murray. This arrangement would suit him, as he performs far better statistically in a starting role, and it allows him to be “the guy” in a new city. If for some unforeseen reason Fleury opts against waiving his NMC, Rutherford will assuredly find a trade elsewhere prior to the expansion draft. At the end of the day, Murray, with two amazing playoff performances at only 23 years-old, is going nowhere.

The other four players who must be protected are those which will not give management any sleepless nights. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are both future hall of famers playing prime hockey, providing great value for their contracts. Kessel, at his reduced rate, has absolutely exceeded expectations when his contract was shipped from Toronto. Kris Letang is the only player who some fans have balked out, as he has missed substantial chunks of time, consistently hitting LTIR and wasting cap dollars. Letang, however, is easily a top-10 defenseman in the league,. Watching how these playoffs have been far less decisive than last for Pittsburgh, there is no doubt the entire organization is willing to take the risk to have him return to the blueline.

The major decision right off the start will be whether Rutherford will decide to go with the 7 forwards-3 defensemen-1 goalie model, or the 8 total protected alternative. It seems apparent that most teams will opt for the former, because it provides protection to two additional players. The Penguins, however, are facing truly unique circumstances, and it seems slightly more likely that they will opt for the latter.

Assuming they go that route to protect their defensive corps (one of Justin Schultz/Olli Maatta), the decision at forward will not be an easy one. Beyond the big three up front who must be protected, there are a few names which could intrigue Vegas. Considering the cost to acquire him (James Neal), and his absolutely pivotal net-front presence, Patrick Hornqvist seems the safest bet to secure protection. Rutherford is a big fan, and many in management have placed a lot of faith in him. The downside of this, of course, is that it would leave Bryan Rust exposed. Rust has already made a name for himself in big games, with multiple game-winning and series-clinching goals. He has the same net-front mentality that Hornqvist does, and is five years his junior. Hornqvist is the more proven offensive commodity, but Rust’s 15 goals and 28 points are nothing to look down upon. In the wake of a potential loss of the hard nosed but unrestricted Chris Kunitz, this would be a painful blow to the team’s physicality. Thankfully, both Conor Sheary and Jake Guentzel are exempt from selection, which helps solidify their top lines regardless of this decision.

The defense if the 4-4-1 model is adopted is quite easy to predict. Although Ian Cole has been a completely perfect shot-blocking minute muncher this playoff run, he is 28 years old and relatively ineffective at driving offense with speed. Assuming that Schultz re-signs and doesn’t command an absolute robbery of a contract, he will be protected. His playoff run has been mostly solid, if spotted with occasional mishap, and his 51 points last season was good for 6th among defenseman in the league, just behind the likes of Dustin Byfuglien and Duncan Keith. That sort of production isn’t easily replaced, and especially considering Letang’s precarious health situation, he is the go-to offensive defenseman in his absence.

Maatta could certainly find himself on the outs, but it’s difficult to imagine him being exposed in the expansion draft. The team showed a great deal of confidence in him by inking him to a 6 year contract after limited sophomore season action, and his contract at $4.083 is certainly manageable. The 23 year-old two-way defender will certainly need to improve his skating to keep up with the high-flying organizational mentality, and there is the possibility his sluggishness has landed him in serious disfavor. If Rutherford were intent on moving on from Maatta, however, it would not be via expansion – he is too valuable a piece to lose for nothing. A trade is certainly a possibility, but the smart money is on the front office praying for a healthy summer of training and improvement for the young Finn.

It is certainly conceivable that the Penguins do opt for the 7-3-1 option, if they truly value Rust more than Schultz or Maatta. This would result in Rust, Scott Wilson, and one of Tom Kuhnhackl, Josh Archibald, and Carl Hagelin to be the additional protect-ees. (Hagelin’s $4 MM contract would likely make him a prime target for sacrifice under this scenario.) Maatta would be the likely claim in this potentiality, as he is less favored internally for purely stylistic reasons when contrasted with Schultz.

However, it seems more likely that Pittsburgh has already worked out a scenario between Fleury, his agent, and Vegas management regarding Marc-Andre Fleury. Rutherford’s lack of panic around the draft last year has led many to believe that this situation has already been handled, and that perhaps a sweetener will be thrown in for not claiming Bryan Rust or a young defenseman.

Projected Protection List

F Sidney Crosby (NMC)
F Evgeni Malkin (NMC)
F Phil Kessel (NMC)
F Patrick Hornqvist

D Kris Letang (NMC)
D Brian Dumoulin
D Justin Schultz
D Olli Maatta

G Matt Murray

If for whatever reason one of Maatta and Schultz is left to dry in the place of this prediction, the re-signing of Trevor Daley and perhaps even Ron Hainsey would likely follow suit. The loss of Rust would be difficult to sustain on an emotional level, as he has been a leader for the younger Wilkes-Barre call-ups since last season. But with young players like Zach Aston-Reese and Daniel Sprong looking to claim a roster spot in training camp next season, his offensive production would likely be easy to absorb. Ultimately, however, it seems probable that Fleury will be Vegas’ selection. Following his impressive resurgence in the first two round of the playoffs, and his difficult situation in Pittsburgh behind the legendary Matt Murray, it seems a fit that would work for all parties involved.

« Previous Page

Load More Posts

Headlines