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Western Notes: Oilers’ Offseason, Kane, Denver Players, Sikura

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The Edmonton Oilers are not heading to the playoffs and are currently looking at all their in-house options before the season ends. Then the team will embark on the next bunch of steps to fix the team that one year ago was the talk of the league. The Athletic’s Jonathan Willis (subscription required) comes up with an eight-point plan on how to fix the team this offseason, primary of which is to watch its spending, both on free agents as well as the possibility to send off some of their own contracts as well.

One of the first suggestions is that Edmonton should not overreact when it comes to some of their underperforming players. While several of their defensemen had tough seasons this year including Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera and Adam Larsson, Willis believes that it’s unlikely that they will struggle again and the team must preach patience. However, the team needs to unload expensive contracts of bottom-tier players, suggesting the team might want to see if they can trade off defenseman Kris Russell and forward Zach Kassian to free up some of their money.

As for free agency, the team should avoid big-name free agents and look to sign some of the more modestly-priced players that will be on the market even suggesting that they could consider bringing back Patrick Maroon if he will agree on a short-term deal.

  • The Chicago Blackhawks great Patrick Kane said he hasn’t decided yet whether he will play at the World Championships in Copenhagen in May, according to Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times. He said he’ll consider it after his season ends, but it’s “definitely an option. After I didn’t go last year, I was thinking that maybe I should have went.”
  • Although this note is about a Western collegiate team, The Athletic’s Corey Pronman (subscription required) had an interesting nugget in his prospect mailbag. Pronman was asked of the potential signings of the University of Denver’s three forward prospects in Henrik Borgstrom, Troy Terry and Dylan Gambrell, three of the team’s top players. Pronman’s response is that he believes all three will be signing with their respective teams the moment their college season is over. Denver is currently playing in the NCAA tournament. Borgstrom, the Florida Panthers’ 2016 first-rounder scored 22 goals in his sophomore season. Terry, the Anaheim Ducks’ 2015 fifth-rounder picked up 13 goals and 44 points in his junior campaign, while Gambrell, San Jose Sharks’ second-round pick in 2015, finished his junior year with 13 goals and 42 points. All three could be major contributors to their teams as soon as next season.
  • The Chicago Blackhawks also could benefit greatly soon as well as Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that if Northeastern University loses today or Sunday, expect prospect Dylan Sikura to be signed and in the Blackhawks lineup by Thursday. The Northeastern senior, who was the sixth-round pick in 2014, has had dominant season the past two years, combining for 42 goals and 110 points in two seasons. Northeastern is playing Michigan today.

Minor Transactions: 12/18/17

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A new week begins in the NHL and teams must make their final few roster moves before a freeze is put in effect tomorrow night. We’ll keep track of any last minute moves around the league right here. Make sure to refresh throughout the day.

  • As expected, Madison Bowey and Jakub Vrana have both been recalled today. Their assignment to Hershey yesterday was nothing more than a cap saving measure, and both players weren’t expected to miss any time. Vrana is skating with T.J. Oshie—back at Washington Capitals practice today after missing several games with a concussion—and Evgeny Kuznetsov, an impressive line for the young forward.
  • Ville Pokka is on his way back to the AHL without having played a game for the Chicago Blackhawks. Unfortunately, the 23-year old hasn’t been able to make an impact with the team since being acquired several years ago, and is still waiting to make his NHL debut. The Rockford IceHogs will welcome him back, but he’ll have to do more to crack the Blackhawks lineup down the road.
  • The St. Louis Blues have recalled Tage Thompson from the AHL, while moving Samuel Blais to injured reserve. Thompson, 20, is a top prospect for the Blues who has already played four games for the club this season. Selected in the first round of the 2016 draft, Thompson turned pro out of the University of Connecticut last spring and so far has 16 points in 24 games for the San Antonio Rampage of the AHL.
  • With Brock Boeser out with a foot injury for the time being, the Vancouver Canucks have recalled Reid Boucher to help up front. Because the extent of Boeser’s injury is unclear and he hasn’t been placed on injured reserve yet, the team sent down defensmean Ashton Sautner to make room for Boucher’s return.
  • Edmonton has activated Adam Larsson from injured reserve and sent Anton Slepyshev to the minor leagues to make room. Larsson will be welcomed back with open arms after the team has started to play better of late. While still several points out of playoff contention, the Oilers have started to turn around what was a dreadful start of the year. Getting Larsson back after missing nearly three weeks will be sure to help.
  • With Jacob Josefson returning to the lineup, the Buffalo Sabres have sent Hudson Fasching back to the minor leagues. Fasching has been held scoreless in five games for the Sabres this season, and has yet to make much of an impact on the organization since being acquired in 2014.
  • The Ottawa Senators have recalled Ben Harpur from the minor leagues, bringing them to just 22 players on the active roster. The Senators had been operating with just 21 players on the active roster for some time, likely connected with the recent comments of owner Eugene Melnyk about cutting payroll. Harpur has played 12 games for the Senators this season, recording one point. It’s unclear if he’ll get into the lineup right away, or if he’s just up for insurance as the team takes on the Minnesota Wild tomorrow night.

Edmonton Claims Davidson Off Waivers

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The Edmonton Oilers have claimed defenseman Brandon Davidson off waivers from the Montreal Canadiens today, according to Elliotte Friedman. This will mark Davidson’s second stint in Edmonton as the Oilers were the team to draft him back in 2010.

Davidson played 91 games for the Oilers until he was traded in February of last season to Montreal for David Desharnais. Davidson was considered a promising young defenseman a few years ago with excellent defensive skills, but never fully developed in Edmonton. After being traded to Montreal, however, he never seemed to be in the coaching staff’s plans too often as he only played 23 games for the Canadiens since February. This season, Davidson has one assist in 13 games.

Now reunited with his previous team, Davidson should immediately jump into their lineup with their injuries on the blueline to Adam Larsson and Andrej Sekera. However, Larsson is eligible to come off injured reserve on Wednesday, and if he does, the team will have to make another defensive decision then, as they will have eight players on the blueline. However, Davidson might be a preferred option to defenseman Yohann Auvito, who has a history of taking a lot of risks on offense.

Assuming he stays with Edmonton after that, he could get a matchup with his old team on Saturday in Montreal.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $65,647,000 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Matt Benning (One year remaining, $925K)
F Drake Caggiula (One year remaining, $925K)
F Connor McDavid (One year remaining, $925K)
F Jesse Puljujarvi (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Anton Slepyshev (One year remaining, $925K)
F Kailer Yamamoto (Three years remaining, $925K)
D Darnell Nurse (One year remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

McDavid: $2.85MM
Puljujarvi: $2.5MM
Nurse: $850K
Slepyshev: $600K
Caggiula: $425K
Benning: $300K
Yamamoto: $230K

Total: $7.755MM

Believe it or not, McDavid is still on the list as the Art Ross Trophy winner, Hart Memorial Trophy winner, and Ted Lindsay Award winner is on the last year of his entry-level deal. McDavid will also be listed later in the story under four year and more as McDavid signed his eight year, $100MM extension this summer and will be locked up long term regardless. More on him later …

The Oilers have high expectations for both Benning and Nurse to take that next step. With injuries mounting, both should be vaulted into bigger roles than they were last year. The 23-year-old Benning played in 62 games last year and played solidly while filling in for injured players. The 22-year-old Nurse also had a solid showing in 44 games this year. Both may be asked to jump onto top-four pairings on defense throughout the year.

Slepyshev, who suffered an ankle injury in the offseason looks close to being ready. He had 10 points in 41 games a year ago, but also scored three goals in the playoffs for Edmonton last year and many feel the 23-year-old is ready to take that next step. Caggiula, a big college player from the University of North Dakota, had seven goals and 18 points in 60 games a year ago in his first year with Edmonton and is also thought to be a player ready to make a jump.

Both Yamamoto and Puljujarvi (Edmonton’s 2017 and 2016 first-round picks, respectively) went head-to-head and battled it out for a final roster spot this training camp with Yamamoto getting the edge and Puljujarvi getting sent to Bakersfield, but don’t be surprised if Puljujarvi is back up at some point during the season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Mark Fayne ($2.6MM, UFA – team saved $1.025MM in cap relief by sending him to AHL)
F Ryan Strome ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Mark Letestu ($1.8MM, UFA)
F Patrick Maroon ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Jussi Jokinen ($1.1MM, UFA)
G Laurent Brossoit ($750K, RFA)
F Iiro Pakarinen ($725K, RFA)

Connor McDavidPerhaps the most interesting player the team must focus on will be Maroon, who had a breakout year playing next to McDavid. The 29-year-old wing scored 27 goals and has proven to be one guy who seems to play well next to McDavid. He is a presence in front of the net and a physical force for the team.

Letestu, is another player the team will have to consider. Likely to be the team’s fourth-line center, Letestu put up 16 goals last year, although that was a career high and he’s already 32 years old. Jokinen, who signed a one-year deal this offseason, put up 11 goals last year in Florida, but at 34 years old is likely not a priority to the team.

As for restricted free agents, the team will take a long look at Strome, who the team acquired in the Jordan Eberle deal. The 24-year-old center has had an inconsistent career with the New York Islanders, but put up 13 goals and 30 points last year. The Oilers hope he can keep improving on those numbers. Brossoit will get his first chance to be Talbot’s backup. The 24-year-old looked promising in eight appearances last year.

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Nugent-Hopkins Watch Might Start Early

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With the recent signings of Leon Draisaitl ($8.5 MM AAV), and Connor McDavid ($12.5 MM), there are those around the league who are anxious to see how GM Peter Chiarelli will deal with the inevitable cap crunch on the horizon. David Staples of the Edmonton Journal contends that the possibility of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins being moved in the short-term is overblown. That said, it stands to reason that Nugent-Hopkins will be a focus of trade speculation for a long while. Milan Lucic is the only other forward with as heavy a cap hit, also at $6 MM AAV, but he has a no-movement clause to accompany his deal. If money is moving out, Nugent-Hopkins could be the man in the cross-hairs.

Staples provides a useful breakdown of salary for the next three seasons, and shows how minimal that cap crunch might end up being. Still, it’s expected that Edmonton will attempt to build on its successful season and attempt to compete this year. If they want to add this season, they can certainly do so at the deadline. With their current $8.33 MM in space they’ll have over $30 MM in deadline space, so it seems reasonable to anticipate short-term buys. That said, any additions will complicate the cap picture in 2018-19.  They’ve already moved multiple pieces who initially had great value, notably Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov, and Justin Schultz, and received little in return, with the exception of Adam Larsson (for Hall). It seems unlikely that Chiarelli would risk having another top pick and valuable asset thrive elsewhere just in the name of saving a few dollars.

The trade of Jordan Eberle certainly alleviated some of the pressure that Nugent-Hopkins is bound to face, but that may only be temporary. His 18 goals and 25 assists in a full season are a sharp decline from even his rookie totals. For Nugent-Hopkins to cement his place on a team with two momentous contracts, his production will need to improve dramatically. He’ll certainly see more scrutiny this campaign if he struggles for long stretches, as the concern over money will only make fans and reporters more critical. If the 24 year-old were to be traded, it would most certainly be next summer, when the crunch really starts to surface as McDavid’s hit kicks in. Even after another season under 50 points, Nugent-Hopkins would likely bring in a sizable haul via trade, which might fill out the rest of the forward corps at a cheaper price in Edmonton. Thankfully for the Oil, the organization has multiple players who can slot in at center if necessary – Draisaitl, Mark Letestu, Jussi Jokinen, and Ryan Strome all have experience up the middle and could slot in after McDavid. Nugent-Hopkins will have to stand well above his competition at camp and throughout the year to prove his long-term value to the organization. If it’s another season of being outclassed by the likes of Letestu, he could find himself in the midst of intense speculation.

A Quiet 2017 Off-Season

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By the time August rolls around each year, it seems like the off-season is dragging on. The July 1st free agent frenzy is long behind us and it’s been weeks since the last major signing. Fans are struggling to get their hockey fill and counting the days until the puck drops on preseason hockey. In 2017, fans have all the more reason to be sick of the off-season. When compared with the summer of 2016, this off-season has simply been boring. It was expected to be as such, but no one could have predicted just how quiet this summer could be.

As of today, August 6th, 2017, there have only been two unrestricted free agents signed to contracts worth more than $6MM per year: Kevin Shattenkirk to the New York Rangers (as predicted) and Alexander Radulov to the Dallas Stars. In contrast, there were four such deals signed on July 1st, 2016 alone. Drop that mark down to contracts worth more than $4MM annually, and you get uninspiring names this year like Evgeni Dadonov, Dmitry Kulikov, Nick Bonino, Karl Alzner, Martin Hanzal, and Steve Mason added to the list; hardly a superstar among them. 2016 saw high-profile players like Milan Lucic, David Backes, Loui Eriksson, Kyle Okposo, and Andrew Ladd all find new homes. Those signings came on the heels of the P.K. Subban – Shea Weber and Taylor Hall – Adam Larsson trades as well. The best swaps 2017 has to offer so far are Travis Hamonic or Marcus Johansson being dealt for draft picks. There have simply been a lack of franchise-altering moves made this summer.

Then you have the timeline of when deals got done. By August last year, the best unsigned free agents were Antoine Vermette, Jiri Hudler, and Jhonas Enroth. The year before, Cody Franson and David Schlemko highlighted the August market. In both cases, NHL teams got their deals done in July, filling the month with exciting signing news. This year? Not so much. Legendary players like Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla, and Shane Doan remain available, alongside other able-bodied contributors like Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, and Daniel Winnik. That’s in addition to Franson and Hudler as well. Teams are simply waiting around on this market for reasons unknown. Could it end up as an exciting run of signing in August? Maybe, but don’t count on it.

The weak 2017 free agent market coupled with the challenge of preparing for June’s Expansion Draft has simply resulted in one of quietest off-seasons in recent memory. Several teams still have needs and spots to fill and signings and trades remain possible, but at this point the summer is a lost cause. Time to look forward to next season and even next summer when we *hope* to see the likes of John Tavares, Rick Nash, Evander Kane, James Neal, James van Riemsdyk, Paul Stastny, Mikko Koivu, Cam Atkinson, Jonathan Marchessault, Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Mike Green, Jack Johnson, Calvin de Haan, and Antti Raanta all hit the open market. Hopefully that list is enough excitement to get you through the rest of this one.

Klefbom Out For Oilers

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In a potentially devastating blow to their defense, Edmonton’s Oscar Klefbom will not participate in Game 6 in what is a must-win against Anaheim. He left warmups prior to puck-drop and did not return. Fellow defenseman Andrej Sekera was already ruled out earlier in the day. The defenseman has taken heavy assignments on the top pairing with Adam Larsson. Klefbom’s aggressive defending helps clear the slot and move the puck up ice. The swede’s offensive game had truly blossomed this year – he posted 12 goals and 26 assists during the regular season to lead the team from the blueline. Klefbom has been a workhorse for the young Oilers, and his loss will definitely alter matchups for coach Todd McLellan. For tonight however, McLellan has the benefit of last change at home.

Without Klefbom, Mark Fayne was initially slotted to take third pairing duties. Instead, Griffin Reinhart found his way back to the take the ice, after a late season call up. The once promising prospect has had his fair share of struggles in Alberta. His entry was a surprise to most, but Fayne’s rust likely became a factor. Fayne had not played an NHL contest since December and did not overly impress for the AHL Bakersfield Condors. Reinhart certainly has more upside, but also the potential to commit more egregious defensive errors. Edmonton will need to rely even more heavily upon Larsson, as well as ask Kris Russell and Darnell Nurse to substantially up their minutes and quality of play.

Eric Gryba will replace the injured Sekera and play alongside Reinhart.

Will The 2017 Draft Class Be Better Than People Think?

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FanRag Sports’ Hannah Stuart pens an article wondering if the 2017 NHL Draft class is actually not as bad as many think it will be. Coming off two drafts with all-world talents–Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel in 2015 and Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016–anything less of that type of talent would be considered “worse” by definition. Clouding judgement has been the lack of what many analysts believe to be at least one generational player, and a muddled class after the first seven-eight players in most mock drafts. But is it a fair assessment?

Stuart cites ESPN’s Corey Pronman, who put together his ranking of the prospects and even wrote in his opening paragraph that its one of the weakest drafts in the cap era. He goes as far as to say it’s in the same category of the 2011 and 2012 drafts, which in his opinion, didn’t yield much in the way of top tier talent. Pronman lists Halifax’s Nico Hischier as his top prospect, with Brandon Wheat Kings center Nolan Patrick second and Mississauga’s Owen Tippett third. Pronman does write that it’s essentially a toss-up as to who can be the #1 overall pick in the draft–Hischier or Patrick, and that whoever is taken first will be a benefit to his new team.

Looking at the two drafts that Pronman mentioned, the 2011 did feature a slew of players chosen in the top 10 who have been productive in the NHL. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins went first overall, and while he hasn’t produced in the way that Matthews or McDavid have, many analysts (and fans) blame his development by the Oilers as a culprit for his stunted growth. Other notables in the 2011 draft–by draft order–are Gabriel Landeskog (#2), Jonathan Huberdeau (#3), Adam Larsson (#4), Ryan Strome (#5), Mika Zibanejad (#6), Mark Scheifele (#7) Sean Couturier (#8), Dougie Hamilton (#9), and Jonas Brodin (#10). There are a number of strong players in the ten, and while viewed as a “weaker” draft, it at least paid dividends for those teams that drafted them–or acquired them later via trade.

It thins out from there, but there were certainly notables later in the first round or later in the draft. Brandon Saad was taken in the second round by the Blackhawks and he was clutch for Chicago until they were forced to deal him away due to cap issues.

Mar 10, 2016; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Edmonton Oilers forward <a rel=2012’s draft was somewhat weaker one-through-ten, but saw some return in the middle of the first round, namely with Filip Forsberg being taken 11th by the Capitals. Nail Yakupov was taken first by the Oilers, and he certainly hasn’t been the players the Oilers envisioned–but again, that may go back to development questions. Hampus Lindholm (#6) and Jacob Trouba (#9) are the headliners of a defensive heavy top ten. But a look through the rounds and it’s pretty telling that the 2012 edition was not only weaker than 2011, but possibly one of the weakest in the salary cap era.

Stuart makes an extremely important point about drafting: it’s a crapshoot.

A player can make a bad first impression or be a weak skater and be completely written off by certain scouts. However, maybe that player has an excellent hockey IQ, and a team recognizes that and drafts them in a later round. If the team works with them to fix the deficiencies in their skating, there’s every chance they could develop into an effective NHLer. On the other hand, let’s take what we’ll call the Oilers model. A team might consistently draft high, taking players who show elite skill and throwing those players into the NHL before they’re ready rather than taking time to develop weaknesses in their game.

Stuart continues to argue that since the drumbeat has been steady in saying this draft class will be weak, it’s been all but believed by those on the internet. But as she points out, it isn’t so much the drafting as much as it is the development and scouting staff that every team employs.

Trade Candidate: Kevin Shattenkirk

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Perhaps no player has been mentioned in trade rumors and possible trade scenarios this season than St. Louis Blues defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk. After losing David Backes and Troy Brouwer for nothing as free agents last summer, the Blues were believed to be reluctant to see the same thing happen with Shattenkirk. And with $64MM already allocated towards the 2017-18 season, fitting in another big dollar contract is something the Blues probably would be wise to avoid.

Of course Shattenkirk is an offensively-inclined defenseman who also happens to be right-handed. Those are two characteristics nearly every team in the league is always looking for and the veteran blue liner boasts both in one package. Whether Shattenkirk is traded will have nothing to do with interest, or lack thereof, from other teams; it will, however have everything to do with whether the Blues find a package of assets compelling enough for them to part with the gifted defender.

Contract

Shattenkirk is in the final year of a four-year, $17MM deal with an AAV of $4.25MM.

2016-17

The seven-year veteran hasn’t let his impending free agency and the uncertainty over whether he will finish the season in St. Louis or not affect his performance this season. He is just three points from establishing a new career-high in scoring and his 11 goals already represent the second-best total of his career. With roughly 1/4 of the season remaining to be played, there is a solid chance Shattenkirk bests both totals. He’s done a good chunk of his damage on the man-advantage, tallying seven of his 11 goals and 20 of his 42 points on the power play.

What may complicate both trade negotiations and potentially his earning potential as a UFA is the belief among many evaluators that Shattenkirk is best suited in a second-pairing role and power play specialist and isn’t a legitimate top-pairing blue liner. The Blues are marketing him as a difference-maker and it appears based on the extension terms he’s reportedly already passed on that his camp is expecting a pay day commensurate with some of the top blue liners in the game.

Season Stats

60GP, 11 goals, 31 assists, 42 points, -10 plus/minus, 37 PIM, 114 SOG

Suitors

Again, there is no shortage of teams that would be interested in adding Shattenkirk but will the Blues find a suitor willing to meet their asking price. Edmonton, on the verge of making the postseason after 10 straight non-playoff campaigns, was reportedly closing in on acquiring Shattenkirk last summer but extension talks hit a snag and the team pivoted to the infamous Taylor Hall-for-Adam Larsson swap.

The New York Rangers, Shattenkirk’s favorite team growing up, definitely need a blue line upgrade and would seem to have an excellent shot at extending the defender, but do they have the stomach to meet the high asking price when they might be able to wait until the summer to sign him as a free agent? As we discussed earlier, Rangers GM Jeff Gorton has been less inclined to move the organizations young assets than his predecessor, Glen Sather.

Boston was thought to have had interest but with the emergence of Brandon Carlo and the development of several other young defensemen, the Bruins might prefer to add up front instead of on the back end.

It recently came out that Tampa Bay was heavily involved in trade talks with the Blues for Shattenkirk’s services but again, his refusal to ink an extension scuttled the move. As they fight their way back into the playoff conversation in the East, would they be willing to again consider Shattenkirk as a rental?

Likelihood of a Trade

At this point it’s probably a coin toss. The Blues won’t trade him simply to avoid losing him for nothing this summer; they want a significant return in exchange. St. Louis also holds a playoff position meaning they will be less likely to accept a package consisting of only futures (i.e draft picks and/or prospects). Will a team pony up the required NHL-ready assets for a player that sounds as if he is headed to the open market in a few months and may have his heart set on a particular destination (New York Rangers)? It’s far from a certainty unless the Blues asking price comes down.

Injury Notes: Marner, Pouliot, Senators

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Mitch Marner is likely out again on Saturday night, but it doesn’t seem like that’s what his coach wants. Yesterday before Marner sat out against the New York Rangers, Mike Babcock told Kristen Shilton of TSN that it’s not up to him at this point.

Mitch and I had that little discussion today. We wondered how the science project was going…and we didn’t get any good answers.

I’ve said it before – that’s why coaches and players aren’t allowed to make those decisions.

Shilton again today reported that Marner had a vigorous on-ice workout on his own before Leafs practice, but didn’t skate with the team. Babcock would love to know when he gets his dynamic winger back, and so would Leafs fans. The team could have used him last night in a shootout loss against the Rangers, and it has now been nine days since he suffered his “day-to-day” upper-body injury.

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