Snapshots: Johnson, Nash, Green
The Columbus Blue Jackets are looking for a landing spot for Jack Johnson, after he requested a trade earlier this season and wants a chance to play a bigger role somewhere before hitting free agency. In tonight’s edition of Insider Trading on TSN with panel members Pierre LeBrun, Darren Dreger and Bob McKenzie, they discuss where Johnson could land.
LeBrun even reports that Columbus is “comfortable they can go out and get a low first-round draft pick,” but that they’d still rather get a forward back for a playoff run of their own. That at least seems to increase the likelihood of Johnson being dealt by the deadline, as even a late first is very valuable for clubs on draft day.
- Rick Nash is clearly on the market, now that the New York Rangers have effectively signaled a rebuild and asked for his no-trade list. Dreger lists the Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars as the top two contenders for Nash, but that as many as ten teams have been in contact with his representatives. Nash is likely going to be one of the top prizes on deadline day, if he even lasts the next few weeks.
- McKenzie chimes in with some news on Mike Green of the Detroit Red Wings, once again linking him to the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Lightning are after a defenseman for their Stanley Cup run, but McKenzie reports that the Red Wings are after a return somewhere between the one they received for Brendan Smith last season (2018 second-round pick, 2017 third-round pick) and the one St. Louis received for Kevin Shattenkirk (effectively 2017 first-round pick, prospect Zach Sanford). Whether Tampa Bay wants to pay that much is unclear, but they do have quite the prospect pipeline already built up if they do start to sacrifice futures.
Ilya Kovalchuk To Again Test NHL Market
Around this time last year, word got out that former NHL superstar Ilya Kovalchuk was considering a comeback. The big, Russian sniper retired from the league in 2013, before even his 30th birthday and just three years into a massive (and now patently illegal) 15-year, $100MM contract with the New Jersey Devils. Kovalchuk returned home to Russia and had played with the KHL’s powerhouse club, SKA Saint Petersburg, every year since. However, his NHL ambitions had him thinking about a return trip across the Atlantic last summer. For much of the latter half of the season and into the off-season, Kovalchuk’s potential return was one of the hottest topics in hockey circles. Then, on July 4th, mere days into unrestricted free agency, Kovalchuk re-signed with SKA and his triumphant return was no more.
Now, a year later, it seems Kovalchuk is up for round two. The veteran scorer has shown no signs of slowing down in the KHL, already racking up 63 points through 53 games this season, and with the Olympics about to begin, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman believes talk of a potential return is about to heat back up (Thought 27). As Friedman alludes to, Kovalchuk’s re-entry into the NHL will be much simpler this summer as the Devils will no longer possess his rights. Last off-season, Kovalchuk’s only chance of a return – outside of signing with the Devils – was to find a team both willing to sign him to an expensive contract and then trade for his rights from New Jersey. Devils GM Ray Shero remarked after Kovalchuk decided to stay in Russia that Kovalchuk never came to him with a contract offer and no team came to him with a trade proposal, so clearly the interest was low in having to acquire a free agent via trade, especially an older one who had been out of the NHL for several years. This time around, that risk will be much less painless as the Devils will no longer hold his rights. Once he turns 35 on April 15th, Kovalchuk will be removed from the “Voluntary Retirement” list and will be made an unrestricted free agent, capable of negotiating a deal with any team in the league.
So where will he end up? The Hockey News clearly expects him to draw a lot of attention, as they ranked him ninth on their 2018 free agent board. Here at PHR, Kovalchuk was an afterthought in our Mid-Season UFA Rankings, not cracking the top 20. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle with certain teams having specific interest in his skill set and others unwilling to take the risk on an aging player with a notoriously selfish playing style. As for Kovalchuk himself, Friedman believes that he would prefer to land in New York City. You can cross the Devils off that list; they’re paying $250K in recapture penalties every year until 2025, so they’re not giving Kovalchuk another dime. Plus, if New Jersey really wanted him, the two sides would have struck a deal last year. So that leaves the Rangers and Islanders as Kovalchuk’s Big Apple options. With John Tavares and possibly Josh Bailey and Calvin de Haan to re-sign, the Isles are not likely suitors. The Rangers on the other hand tend to be a team that’s often interested in the headline-making acquisition and, with Rick Nash coming off the books, have the cap space to add some salary. Kovalchuk and the Rangers could be a pairing to watch for this summer.
Mark Stone, Patrick Maroon Interested In Signing Extensions
While many players are worried about which team they’ll be suiting up for in just a few weeks, two are already thinking about inking extensions in the summer. Mark Stone and Patrick Maroon both spoke about wanting to stay in their respective cities, though they may find different outcomes as the deadline approaches.
First Stone, who told Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia that he wants to stay with the Ottawa Senators long-term and has little doubt the two sides will come to an agreement when he hits restricted free agency this summer. Stone is in the last season of his three-year, $10.5MM contract and has developed into the Senators best forward on most nights. Despite missing the last seven games due to injury, Stone leads the Senators in scoring with 44 points in 44 games and is arguably the league’s best takeaway artist.
Stone will deserve a huge raise if the Senators want to sign him long-term, as he has just a single season left before being eligible for unrestricted free agency. Turning 26 in May, he could demand a contract along the lines of some of the game’s elite wingers. Depending on how Ottawa feels about their finances as they move towards Erik Karlsson‘s 2019 unrestricted free agency, Stone’s contract could come with some substantial hurdles. Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf remain on the books with huge cap hits, and owner Eugene Melnyk has hinted in the past that the Senators would need to cut salary.
Then there is Maroon, who is headed towards unrestricted free agency this summer. According to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required), Maroon’s representatives have already touched base with the Edmonton Oilers to discuss an extension, though if things can’t be completed in the next few weeks one would have to believe a trade could be the result. Even with the Oilers’ recent surge they remain more than ten points out of a playoff spot and have to be looking towards next season and beyond.
Maroon has found his game in Edmonton and developed into an effective player, but with the Oilers heading into Connor McDavid‘s eight-year $100MM contract and Leon Draisaitl already earning $8.5MM per season, they have to be very careful with how they divide the rest of their salary cap. Even though Maroon is on pace to come short of his career-high of 27 goals set last season, he should still get a raise on the $2MM cap hit he currently carries.
The fact that Maroon is relatively inexpensive this season—he would come with only a prorated $1.5MM cap hit since Anaheim is still retaining part of his salary—also increases his trade value. Edmonton could potentially use him as a rental at the deadline, only to try and re-sign him in the summer months. That’s a tricky game to play though, as things can change quickly in the NHL, especially if Maroon were to go to a team with a good chance at the Stanley Cup. There’s no telling what could change his mind and cause him to sign elsewhere after hitting the open market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
David Pope Still “100 Percent Set” On Signing With Detroit Red Wings
Every spring, rumors and speculation start to come out about the top collegiate seniors in the country. Will they sign with the team who drafted them, or will they wait until August and become free agents? Every year we hear about players who could make an impact right away, whether it is Tyler Bozak, Justin Schultz, Kevin Hayes, Jimmy Vesey, Alexander Kerfoot or Will Butcher. Some were never drafted, others never signed.
This year is quite the same, and one name that will immediately pop out is that of David Pope. Pope is in his final season at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, where he has 38 points in 28 games and looks like he’s finally coming into his own physically. The Detroit Red Wings drafted him in the fourth round in 2013, and it seems like he’s destined to stay there.
Speaking with Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required), Pope was quite clear on his intention to sign with the Red Wings.
As of right now, I’m 100 percent set on going to Detroit.
Pope would have the same opportunity that Kerfoot, Butcher and others did last season and could wait until the middle of August to become an unrestricted free agent. If he’s to sign with Detroit though, there are a pair of options.
One, he could sign an entry-level contract with the Red Wings starting in 2018-19 and then appear in some AHL contests down the stretch this season on an amateur tryout contract. Many prospects go this way, including Northeastern’s Zachary Aston-Reese, who signed his two-year entry-level deal with the Penguins on March 17th but played 10 games for the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at the end of the season on an ATO. Now up in Pittsburgh, Aston-Reese’s ELC actually kicked in this season will still be effective next year.
Two, a route sometimes used by prized free agents coming out of college, is to leverage their pending league-wide availability into a contract right away, burning a year and getting closer to restricted free agency. That method was used by Mike Vecchione last season, who signed his entry-level deal, played just two games with Philadelphia and earned a two-year, one-way contract as a restricted free agent this summer. Vecchione was in a slightly different situation because he was undrafted, and therefore could immediately sign with anyone upon leaving college, whereas Pope will have to wait until August.
In Pope’s case, since his two-year entry-level deal will be signed as a 23-year old regardless of the date it is actually inked—ELC’s take your age as of September 15th of the calendar year it is signed in—he could technically burn a year off of it by forcing the Red Wings to sign him for this season like Vecchione. While there is no evidence he would attempt this, it’s certainly something to think about from the Red Wings point of view.
Either way, Pope will certainly be on Detroit’s radar in the coming months. The young forward is another talented winger who could help in a quick rebuild by the Red Wings, and certainly has a chance at being an NHL player before long. As Custance writes, a stint in the AHL is expected, the only question is whether that will be this season for the Red Wings, or next year for someone else.
Snapshots: Three Stars, Plekanec, Talbot
Evgeni Malkin took home the top honors among the NHL’s Three Stars of the Week, after scoring six goals and eight points in just three games. Malkin is turning it on at the right time for the Pittsburgh Penguins, who now find themselves in a Metropolitan playoff spot for the time being.
Amazingly, goaltender Harri Sateri garnered the second star of the week after stopping 88 of 93 shots in his three starts. For the Florida Panthers, who’ve dealt with injuries to Roberto Luongo and James Reimer all season, Sateri’s emergence has been a welcome sight. Not so is the third star, Reilly Smith, who the Panthers sent to the Vegas Golden Knights in the offseason only to see him come into his own offensively. Smith had five points in four games last week and needs just ten more to match his career-high of 51. The 26-year old is a whopping +25 on the season, trailing only teammate William Karlsson (+28) and Boston Bruins defenseman Zdeno Chara (+27) for the league lead.
- In Montreal, Tomas Plekanec remains one of the interesting players to watch for the Canadiens as he heads towards unrestricted free agency at the end of the year. In a frustrated column for Sportsnet, Eric Engels writes that Canadiens’ GM Marc Bergevin should be shown the door if he doesn’t trade Plekanec for something at the upcoming deadline. Engels doesn’t totally disagree with the idea of bringing Plekanec back next season, but posits that the team absolutely has to get an asset out of his expiring deal this year. Vegas, Tampa Bay, Columbus, and San Jose are all examined as potential landing spots for the 35-year old center, who has seen his offensive production fall off a cliff in recent years. Plekanec has also been linked to the Pittsburgh Penguins as an ideal fit for their third line.
- One veteran center with a more certain future than Plekanec is 11-year NHL veteran Max Talbot, who is now playing overseas with the KHL’s Lokomotiv Yaroslavl. Talbot isn’t making an NHL comeback, but he isn’t retiring either. Talbot has earned a one-year extension from Lokomotiv, the KHL announced today. Talbot has served as an alternate captain for Yaroslavl for two years now and had the best offensive season of his career – NHL or otherwise – last season and has shown no sign of slowing down. While the reliable two-way forward won’t be suiting up for Team Canada at the Olympics, he remains one of the best North American skaters not playing in the NHL and Lokomotiv was wise to retain the services of their experienced import.
Western Notes: Jagr, Domi, Blues, Golden Knights
It’s a shame that the Hockey Hall of Fame voted long ago to abolish the selection committee’s ability to waive the three-year post-retirement waiting period for candidates that are exceptional. Because if there is someone that shouldn’t have to wait three years to gain entry into the Hockey Hall of Fame, Jaromir Jagr would seem to be a good bet that person, according to Larry Brooks of the New York Post.
While Jagr is not retired yet, as he remains on loan from the Calgary Flames to Kladno in the Czech League, his career has been exceptional and would deserve that immediate honor of getting his wait time waived that only 10 players have ever earned such as Wayne Gretzky, Gordie Howe and Mario Lemieux. However, that rule was removed back in 1999. Regardless, Jagr has played in 1,733 career NHL games, with 766 goals and 1,921 points.
- In the same article, Brooks also writes that he’s heard the Arizona Coyotes are offering young center Max Domi to teams for the right price. The 22-year-old former first-round pick in 2013 has been struggling in his third season in the NHL. After a solid rookie year in which he put up 18 goals and 34 assists, his numbers have declined as he put up just 38 points in 59 games last year and currently has just three goals in 52 games. The team already moved on from winger Anthony Duclair a month ago as the Coyotes are trying to find the right balance of youth and veterans to start winning some games.
- The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford (subscription required) responds to mailbag questions and suggests that if New York Islanders center John Tavares reaches free agency this summer, he believes the St. Louis Blues will be aggressive suitors for the 27-year-old center. The scribe writes that the team is expecting to have about $13MM available and it should cost between $10 and $12MM to sign Tavares. That will likely make for a tight cap, especially since the team still has to sign several of their own free agents including restricted free agent defenseman Joel Edmundson. However, with the salary cap likely going up and the ability to move out a contract or two, it is very possible the team can afford Tavares. Add in that Tavares is friends with defenseman Alex Pietrangelo and the team is already a playoff team with young winger Vladimir Tarasenko needing a star center to take that next step, there is a good chance he will strongly consider St. Louis. It’s still a long shot, but not unrealistic.
- NHL.com’s Gary Lawless tweets part of an interview with Vegas Golden Knights general manager George McPhee about the trade deadline. The veteran GM says that its still too early to know whether the team will be buyers, sellers or plan to stand pat. “We still don’t know what we’re going to do at the deadline,” said McPhee. “We’re still three weeks away. We’ll know more when we get there. Every team in the league has needs… We’ll see. I like our group. I don’t know if we’re going to do a lot, if anything.”
Snapshots: Tavares, Schmaltz, Hall
As we close out January, we’re still waiting for the rush of trade deadline moves to start. It’s been awfully quite on the market for some time, and as Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) writes, that might be because of John Tavares. It’s not so much that Tavares is available in trade, but that if he is really going to hit the open market in July, teams want to make sure they have enough cap space to take a run at him.
Custance mentions the San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues and Montreal Canadiens as potential players in free agency for Tavares, though those are all speculative at this point. All three could turn into big factors at the trade deadline—in different ways—and could be delaying their decisions as long as possible. For now, we’ll just have to hold tight and wait for the first real foot to drop in the rental market.
- Speaking of the St. Louis Blues, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet included a note about Jordan Schmaltz in his latest 31 Thoughts column, writing that the AHL All-Star is basically blocked from making an impact at the NHL level. That’s because of the Blues’ impressive depth on the right side, and it could lead to him being a trade chip in the next few weeks. Again, that’s just speculation, but Schmaltz certainly would hold substantial value. A first-round pick of the Blues in 2012, Schmaltz has found nothing but success in the collegiate and minor pro ranks, but has received just 13 games of NHL experience to this point. He’s also heading into restricted free agency this summer as he finishes his entry-level contract, and holds arbitration rights.
- Taylor Hall has been fined $5,000 for his hit on Kyle Okposo last night, avoiding suspension. Hall hit Okposo into the boards from behind, resulting in a minor penalty and will have this incident added to his record with the Department of Player Safety. While Okposo suffered no apparent injury on the play and was back at Sabres’ practice today, it easily could have resulted in more serious damage. Now, only Hall’s wallet will feel that pain.
Cap Casualty: Washington’s Deadline Play
The Washington Capitals have surprised a lot of people this season. After getting bounced out of the playoffs by the Pittsburgh Penguins once again, many looked at a roster which was losing the likes of Karl Alzner, Justin Williams, Kevin Shattenkirk, Nate Schmidt and others, and thought they’d take a drastic step backwards in 2017-18. Instead, led by a resurgent Alex Ovechkin the team has 63 points in the standings and leads the Metropolitan Division once again.
Now as the trade deadline looms, many are trying to find ways in which the roster may be supported. The Capitals are buyers once again, knowing that the longer they go without a Stanley Cup appearance for Ovechkin, the less likely he’ll ever get one.
In a specific example, a return home for Mike Green of the Detroit Red Wings has been written about extensively over the past few days after the defenseman took part in the All-Star festivities on the weekend. There’s no doubt that the puck-moving defender would be a nice fit for the Capitals, but he comes with a large, snarling caveat.
The Capitals don’t have any money.
Not in terms of actual dollars available to give out, the Capitals are among the most financially stable teams in the league and could certainly afford to pay Green what’s remaining on the final year of current contract. But the league wouldn’t allow it, as Washington is already carrying a heft cap hit.
Smartly, in preparation for the trade deadline the Capitals have been trying to bank cap space all season. Madison Bowey and Jakub Vrana have each been sent down at least six times, usually just for a single day to spare their cap charge between games. The team, which started the season with very little room to operate, now has a little flexibility for the trade deadline. Just not nearly enough for Green.
The Red Wings defenseman comes with a $6MM cap hit, three times more than the projected salary the Capitals could take on at the deadline. They’d need to clear some real salary to bring someone like him on board, and there aren’t many obvious options to get rid of.
Lars Eller could be one, but he’s been a key part of their forward group since coming over from Montreal in 2016. He’s even on pace to set a new career-high in points as he heads towards unrestricted free agency. Moving his $3.5MM cap hit would certainly give them some extra room, but would blow a hole wide open in their center depth and force Jay Beagle or someone even less experienced into tough minutes.
There’s Brooks Orpik, the much maligned defensive defenseman who was a buyout candidate last summer. His $5.5MM cap hit for this season and next is likely almost immovable, even if he is still logging more than 20 minutes a night. That role is another reason why it would be tough to part with him, especially just to bring in another defenseman. The Capitals are trying to get deeper, not just replace spare parts.
Of course in any deal, Green included, the trading team could retain salary. Up to 50% of the remaining contract, that might have to be case for any acquisition the Capitals make. Whether it is a big name like Green, or even just a minor tweak, Washington is in a weak negotiating position. After sending several assets for Shattenkirk last season, will they really sacrifice more of the future to get a half-priced rental at the deadline?
All cap numbers provided by CapFriendly.
Canucks Prefer To Re-Sign Erik Gudbranson
The Vancouver Canucks were in a strange situation this past summer when it came to extending restricted free agent defenseman Erik Gudbranson. After trading away Jared McCann and a pair of draft picks to the Florida Panthers to acquire Gudbranson the off-season prior, the big rearguard was held to just 30 games in 2016-17 due to injury. Still unsure of what kind of player Gudbranson could be in Vancouver but cognizant of what it took to get him, the Canucks gave the 2010 #3 overall pick an identical contract to the one inherited from Florida: one year and $3.5MM. Fast-forward to today, and the situation is still unclear for the Canucks. Gudbranson will now be an unrestricted free agent this off-season and the struggling squad faces pressure to get what they can for him by the trade deadline. However, even in another limited season – having missed 17 games due to injury and suspension – Gudbranson has shown his capable defensive game and, at 26, still has room to grow. So what do they do?
Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre has an idea. MacIntyre spoke to GM Jim Benning, who made it clear that they would like to extend Gudbranson if possible. “I know he’s had some ups and downs, but until he got hurt he was playing well for us. As long as a player can play in today’s game, you’re always going to need a defencemen who can play physical, especially in our division. There’s always going to be room for a guy like that”, Benning stated, summing up the value that Gudbranson brings.
However, an extension is not done yet and the clock is ticking toward the February 26th NHL Trade Deadline. If a deal cannot be struck, the rebuilding Canucks have no choice but to trade Gudbranson and hope that they get a good return for him. Gudbranson’s agent, Mark Guy, said as much in talking to Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal, ackowledging that the season will likely either end with an extension or with a trade. Benning knows that his job may be on the line and needs to get whatever he can for Vancouver’s impending UFA’s. A trade also wouldn’t rule out the team simply bringing Gudbranson back in free agency too, perhaps adding to the intrigue of shipping him out in the next month. Benning may prefer to re-sign Gudbranson, but it still seems like all signs point to a trade.
Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?
Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.
However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:
Total Flexibility
Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.
Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo‘s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville‘s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.
Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.
Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.
Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.
New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames
New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.
Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.
Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson‘s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.
Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.
Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.
Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little‘s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.
Some Flexibility
Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.
Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.
Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.
Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.
Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn‘s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.
Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.
Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.
Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.
Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.
Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.
San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.
St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.
Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan‘s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.
Little Flexibility
Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.
Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford‘s contract expiring prior.
Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.
Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.
New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.