Snapshots: Tavares, Schmaltz, Hall
As we close out January, we’re still waiting for the rush of trade deadline moves to start. It’s been awfully quite on the market for some time, and as Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) writes, that might be because of John Tavares. It’s not so much that Tavares is available in trade, but that if he is really going to hit the open market in July, teams want to make sure they have enough cap space to take a run at him.
Custance mentions the San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues and Montreal Canadiens as potential players in free agency for Tavares, though those are all speculative at this point. All three could turn into big factors at the trade deadline—in different ways—and could be delaying their decisions as long as possible. For now, we’ll just have to hold tight and wait for the first real foot to drop in the rental market.
- Speaking of the St. Louis Blues, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet included a note about Jordan Schmaltz in his latest 31 Thoughts column, writing that the AHL All-Star is basically blocked from making an impact at the NHL level. That’s because of the Blues’ impressive depth on the right side, and it could lead to him being a trade chip in the next few weeks. Again, that’s just speculation, but Schmaltz certainly would hold substantial value. A first-round pick of the Blues in 2012, Schmaltz has found nothing but success in the collegiate and minor pro ranks, but has received just 13 games of NHL experience to this point. He’s also heading into restricted free agency this summer as he finishes his entry-level contract, and holds arbitration rights.
- Taylor Hall has been fined $5,000 for his hit on Kyle Okposo last night, avoiding suspension. Hall hit Okposo into the boards from behind, resulting in a minor penalty and will have this incident added to his record with the Department of Player Safety. While Okposo suffered no apparent injury on the play and was back at Sabres’ practice today, it easily could have resulted in more serious damage. Now, only Hall’s wallet will feel that pain.
Cap Casualty: Washington’s Deadline Play
The Washington Capitals have surprised a lot of people this season. After getting bounced out of the playoffs by the Pittsburgh Penguins once again, many looked at a roster which was losing the likes of Karl Alzner, Justin Williams, Kevin Shattenkirk, Nate Schmidt and others, and thought they’d take a drastic step backwards in 2017-18. Instead, led by a resurgent Alex Ovechkin the team has 63 points in the standings and leads the Metropolitan Division once again.
Now as the trade deadline looms, many are trying to find ways in which the roster may be supported. The Capitals are buyers once again, knowing that the longer they go without a Stanley Cup appearance for Ovechkin, the less likely he’ll ever get one.
In a specific example, a return home for Mike Green of the Detroit Red Wings has been written about extensively over the past few days after the defenseman took part in the All-Star festivities on the weekend. There’s no doubt that the puck-moving defender would be a nice fit for the Capitals, but he comes with a large, snarling caveat.
The Capitals don’t have any money.
Not in terms of actual dollars available to give out, the Capitals are among the most financially stable teams in the league and could certainly afford to pay Green what’s remaining on the final year of current contract. But the league wouldn’t allow it, as Washington is already carrying a heft cap hit.
Smartly, in preparation for the trade deadline the Capitals have been trying to bank cap space all season. Madison Bowey and Jakub Vrana have each been sent down at least six times, usually just for a single day to spare their cap charge between games. The team, which started the season with very little room to operate, now has a little flexibility for the trade deadline. Just not nearly enough for Green.
The Red Wings defenseman comes with a $6MM cap hit, three times more than the projected salary the Capitals could take on at the deadline. They’d need to clear some real salary to bring someone like him on board, and there aren’t many obvious options to get rid of.
Lars Eller could be one, but he’s been a key part of their forward group since coming over from Montreal in 2016. He’s even on pace to set a new career-high in points as he heads towards unrestricted free agency. Moving his $3.5MM cap hit would certainly give them some extra room, but would blow a hole wide open in their center depth and force Jay Beagle or someone even less experienced into tough minutes.
There’s Brooks Orpik, the much maligned defensive defenseman who was a buyout candidate last summer. His $5.5MM cap hit for this season and next is likely almost immovable, even if he is still logging more than 20 minutes a night. That role is another reason why it would be tough to part with him, especially just to bring in another defenseman. The Capitals are trying to get deeper, not just replace spare parts.
Of course in any deal, Green included, the trading team could retain salary. Up to 50% of the remaining contract, that might have to be case for any acquisition the Capitals make. Whether it is a big name like Green, or even just a minor tweak, Washington is in a weak negotiating position. After sending several assets for Shattenkirk last season, will they really sacrifice more of the future to get a half-priced rental at the deadline?
All cap numbers provided by CapFriendly.
Canucks Prefer To Re-Sign Erik Gudbranson
The Vancouver Canucks were in a strange situation this past summer when it came to extending restricted free agent defenseman Erik Gudbranson. After trading away Jared McCann and a pair of draft picks to the Florida Panthers to acquire Gudbranson the off-season prior, the big rearguard was held to just 30 games in 2016-17 due to injury. Still unsure of what kind of player Gudbranson could be in Vancouver but cognizant of what it took to get him, the Canucks gave the 2010 #3 overall pick an identical contract to the one inherited from Florida: one year and $3.5MM. Fast-forward to today, and the situation is still unclear for the Canucks. Gudbranson will now be an unrestricted free agent this off-season and the struggling squad faces pressure to get what they can for him by the trade deadline. However, even in another limited season – having missed 17 games due to injury and suspension – Gudbranson has shown his capable defensive game and, at 26, still has room to grow. So what do they do?
Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre has an idea. MacIntyre spoke to GM Jim Benning, who made it clear that they would like to extend Gudbranson if possible. “I know he’s had some ups and downs, but until he got hurt he was playing well for us. As long as a player can play in today’s game, you’re always going to need a defencemen who can play physical, especially in our division. There’s always going to be room for a guy like that”, Benning stated, summing up the value that Gudbranson brings.
However, an extension is not done yet and the clock is ticking toward the February 26th NHL Trade Deadline. If a deal cannot be struck, the rebuilding Canucks have no choice but to trade Gudbranson and hope that they get a good return for him. Gudbranson’s agent, Mark Guy, said as much in talking to Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal, ackowledging that the season will likely either end with an extension or with a trade. Benning knows that his job may be on the line and needs to get whatever he can for Vancouver’s impending UFA’s. A trade also wouldn’t rule out the team simply bringing Gudbranson back in free agency too, perhaps adding to the intrigue of shipping him out in the next month. Benning may prefer to re-sign Gudbranson, but it still seems like all signs point to a trade.
Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?
Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.
However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:
Total Flexibility
Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.
Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo‘s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville‘s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.
Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.
Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.
Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.
New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames
New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.
Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.
Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson‘s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.
Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.
Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.
Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little‘s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.
Some Flexibility
Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.
Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.
Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.
Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.
Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn‘s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.
Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.
Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.
Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.
Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.
Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.
San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.
St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.
Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan‘s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.
Little Flexibility
Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.
Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford‘s contract expiring prior.
Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.
Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.
New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.
Snapshots: Islanders, Prospects, Recruitment
The New York Islanders will be opening the doors on their new arena at Belmont Park in a few years, but for the time being they needed to find a place to play. Today, the team announced that they would play 12 games at Nassau Coliseum next season, and split time evenly between there and the Barclays Center again in 2019-20.
During the press conference, the Islanders executive group spoke about John Tavares and his pending free agency, saying that it is completely in his hands and that they want him to spend the rest of his career with the club. As Tavares focuses on getting the Islanders back into the playoffs, rumors will continue to bubble up about him going to another city—it certainly won’t be because they don’t want him back as an Islander.
- Corey Pronman of The Athletic (subscription required) has released his midseason draft rankings, and they will definitely raise an eyebrow or two. Pronman has long been a proponent of ranking potential stars over depth players, despite the risk that may be involved. That might explain his ranking of Ryan Merkley at #6 and Brady Tkachuk down at #15. Pronman’s rankings are just another example of how difficult this draft will be to project, as players fall in wildly different categories on various lists. It could lead to more trading on the draft floor, as teams try to acquire “their guy.”
- NHL players don’t turn down an opportunity to help improve their club, and the All-Star weekend was no different. Several reports, including Craig Custance of The Athletic, listed examples of players trying to recruit others that might be heading to free agency soon. Mike Green, Drew Doughty and Erik Karlsson all heard it from players like Auston Matthews, while apparently Steven Stamkos was selling Tampa Bay to everyone who would listen.
Western Notes: Sedins, Doughty, Golden Knights, Hyka
Recent comments from Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin suggest the twin brothers are hoping for another year in Vancouver. Already 37 and trending downwards in their career, the struggling Canucks were considered to be sellers at the trade deadline. However, the Sedin twins return also might throw a wrench into general manager Jim Benning‘s deadline plans.
While the team has several key trade chips to move, including veteran scorer Thomas Vanek and defenseman Erik Gudbranson, Benning might be more likely to retain or extend them to surround the Sedin twins with veteran players, according to J.D. Burke of The Athletic (subscription required). The scribe begins by pointing out that the Sedin’s decision will have major implications to the salary cap and the look of the team. The cost to retain both soon-to-be 38-year-old forwards will be about $10MM, estimates Burke, who adds the team would have to make a decision whether to keep Vanek with the team.
If the Sedin’s stay, will Benning look for assets that might benefit the veteran Sedins, rather than focus on the team’s need to rebuild. Benning has often preferred to acquire players, rather than trade for picks. The team has a lot of prospects coming through the system already, but not trading their assets at the deadline could hurt the future of the team down the road as well. No one is saying the Sedin twins shouldn’t come back. They have been with the franchise since they started their careers and should be welcomed, but not at the expense of the team’s future.
- Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty spoke to the media today at the all-star’s media day. According to Los Angeles’ Times writer Helene Elliott, Doughty said that money and term aren’t the only factor in the way he will approach free agency in 2018-19. “I don’t know if a lot of people think our future looks bright but I think our future does as the L.A. Kings organization,” Doughty said. “We’ve got some young guys that aren’t with us yet that will make a difference in a couple years. We still have that core group of guys. I think we’re trending in the right direction and getting back to hopefully where we were a few years back.”
- Yahoo Sports’ Ryan Lambert writes that while the praise that goes towards Vegas Golden Knights general manager George McPhee is well earned, he believes that Vegas’ unbelievable success should fall on the shoulder of all the other teams’ general managers. The scribe writes that if other general managers had done a better job managing their own rosters, the Golden Knights wouldn’t have been able to get better quality players and picks in order to pad their roster in the initial first year. The expansion draft should net expansion team with back-end forwards and defensemen and No. 2 goalies. However, Florida Panther general manager Dave Talon just handed two top-six forwards to Vegas to get rid of the contract of Reilly Smith, while they opted to move on from Jonathan Marchessault because they didn’t believe he could repeat his 30-goal season from last year. The same can be said for the Minnesota Wild, who gave Vegas forward Alex Tuch and Erik Haula in exchange for draft considerations. There were so many draft considerations from plenty of other teams such as the New York Islanders, the Columbus Blue Jackets and Tampa Bay Lightning. Had general managers made better decisions, perhaps the Golden Knights wouldn’t be the top team in the West. Lambert also adds that the team still has 10 draft picks that will fall in the first two rounds over the next three years. Doesn’t look like Vegas is going anywhere.
- Still with the Golden Knights, SinBinVegas tweets that prospect Tomas Hyka, who was scheduled to play in the AHL All-Star game on Jan. 29, has been replaced with T.J. Tynan as Hyka is now listed as “unavailable for the game.” Vegas plays its first game after the all-star break on Jan. 30, suggesting Hyka might get called up instead. The 24-year-old wing, who signed out of the Czech. Republic, has 12 goals and 31 points in 32 games with the AHL’s Chicago Wolves.
Trade Candidates: Derek Ryan
With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.
In 2016-17, Derek Ryan made headlines as a 30-year-old playing in his first full NHL season after working his way to the highest level through levels like the Canadian University system and pro leagues in Hungary and Austria. The Carolina Hurricanes forward was even nominated for the Masterton Trophy to recognize the perseverance and dedication in took to stick with his NHL dreams much longer than most. In 2017-18, the narrative has changed from Ryan, the feel-good story, to Ryan, the legitimate NHL asset. If you thought Ryan’s 29 points in 67 games as an unheralded, aging rookie was impressive, take a look at his 26 points through 20 fewer games so far this year. Ryan has quietly established himself as a capable, versatile forward and with the Carolina Hurricanes again looking like the odd man out in the Metropolitan Division, the next chapter in Ryan’s story could be that of a key Trade Deadline acquisition.
Contract
Ryan re-signed with the Hurricanes this past summer on a one-year, one-way deal worth $1.425MM. By the Trade Deadline, Ryan will count for less than $500K against the salary cap. He will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.
2017-18
In 47 games, Ryan has nearly matched his offensive totals from last season, and then some. Ryan has already tied his 11 goals and is only three assists shy of his 18 and has done so in 20 fewer games. Ryan is on pace for 19 goals and 26 assists if he stays with the Hurricanes, though even the smallest hot streak, or perhaps a change of scenery, could push him over 20 goals or 30 assists. This season, Ryan has also been a superior five-on-five player, earning the trust of head coach Bill Peters and, in turn, more ice time. Even with a greater role and more exposure this season, Ryan has elite Corsi numbers and has been the best possession player on the roster. Ryan continues to be an asset at the face-off dot too, with a team-leading 56.3% success rate on nearly 600 draws thus far. He’s seen a slight uptick in hits and takeaways without an increase in penalty minutes as, despite a -13 rating that isn’t a true reflection of his game, he continues to be a two-way force who suppresses the opposition better than most of his fellow Carolina forwards. He often takes the ice against the best the other team has to offer and, compared to the team’s -17 goal differential, does well for himself. By all accounts, Ryan has taken another step forward in all facets in 2017-18.
Season Stats
47 GP, 11 goals, 15 assists, 26 points, -13 rating, 10 PIM, 92 shots, 16:18 ATOI, 56.9 CF%
Potential Suitors
While most teams did not even his know his name a few short years ago, Ryan will now be a sought-after depth addition at the Trade Deadline. A responsible, well-rounded forward, Ryan is the type of player that nearly any team could use for the stretch run. With the versatility to play all three forward positions, the depth to his game to line up on the second, third, or fourth line depending on fit and need, and a cap hit that is a total non-factor, there is spot on every contender’s roster for Ryan this season. Who could use him the most? The league’s top team, the Tampa Bay Lightning, are a bit top-heavy on offense and could use a player like Ryan to add balance to their forward corps. The San Jose Sharks and Philadelphia Flyers are in a similar boat. Neither of those three teams have a specific, identifiable need that Ryan could fill, but could greatly use the flexibility he provides as a depth asset.
More specifically, Ryan could be another option for the Pittsburgh Penguins in their continued search for a third-line center. However, the Hurricanes may want to avoid trading Ryan to one of the teams they would need to leapfrog to make the playoffs – especially one with back-to-back Stanley Cup titles. Two other top contenders, the Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals, could really use Ryan as an anchor on their fourth lines. Both teams could use an injection of talent on their energy line, as well as another forward who could fill in throughout the lineup, as they march toward the postseason. The Bruins’ responsible, two-way, possession-heavy game especially seems to fit Ryan.
Likelihood of a Trade
The Derek Ryan story has been a great one, but it’s time for the Carolina Hurricanes to move on. Ryan has been a major surprise and a great addition to the lineup the past two years, but the ‘Canes face an uphill battle to make the playoffs and should get what they can for all of their impending UFA’s. If they so choose, Carolina could bring Ryan back in free agency, but it’s no use holding onto him for this season. The 31-year-old second-year NHLer faces a limited window to win the ultimate prize, a Stanley Cup, and in the midst of an outstanding season, he deserves to join a contender. Despite his amazing climb from the bowels of the hockey world to the highest level, Ryan remains a name that few people really know. Yet, expect him to quietly garner a lot of attention over the next month.
Extension Perception: William Karlsson & Shooting Percentages
The Vegas Golden Knights have been an incredible story for the better part of a year. On March 6th, 2017 the team signed Reid Duke, the first player under contract with the expansion franchise and a symbol for what would transpire in the upcoming months. Duke had been a top pick by the Lethbridge Hurricanes of the WHL, fifth overall in the 2011 bantam draft. He came in with huge expectations for the junior club, only to underwhelm through his first few seasons. He was good, but not great, in those first two years with Lethbridge and fell to the sixth round in the NHL draft.
Minnesota was the team who finally took a chance on him, selecting him 169th overall. That year in junior he would be traded to the Brandon Wheat Kings, where he would again play well, but never come to an agreement on a professional contract with the Wild. Instead, he would head back to junior as an overage free agent, now adrift from the only NHL organization he’d ever been a part of. That feeling is one known by the rest of the Golden Knights squad, after they were left exposed in the expansion draft or sent to Vegas in order to protect a more valuable player.
William Karlsson may be the best example. The Columbus Blue Jackets needed to protect some of their other, more prized players—specifically Josh Anderson, who was left technically unprotected—and ended up trading first and second round picks (and the contract of David Clarkson) to do so. As GM Jarmo Kekalainen said at the time, they did it to “try to keep the core of our team intact.” Karlsson, a good player who had scored 20 and 25 points in his first two NHL seasons was selected by Vegas instead.
If you’ve been following the NHL at all this season, it’s obvious that Karlsson had more to give. He currently ranks only behind Alex Ovechkin in goals with 27, only one fewer than he had scored in his entire North American professional career (NHL and AHL combined) before this season. He sits second on the Golden Knights in points behind only Jonathan Marchessault, eight points ahead of the team’s All-Star forward James Neal.
He also is a restricted free agent this summer.
The Golden Knights have already anointed Marchessault as part of the core moving forward, signing him to a six-year $30MM contract extension at the beginning of the month. The Florida Panthers cast-off is the most dangerous forward on the ice more often than not, and is proving that his 30-goal season in 2016-17 was no fluke. For Karlsson, that question still exists.
There was never an expectation that Karlsson would turn into a potential 40-goal scorer, not even when he was selected 53rd overall by the Anaheim Ducks in 2011. He’d never shown skill like that before, and though if you watch him on a nightly basis you can certainly see where it’s coming from now, there is still some doubt in his ability to replicate this season in the future. Karlsson is shooting a whopping 26.7% this season, which leads Anders Lee by 4% for the league lead. He’s directed just 101 shots on net, the fewest amount by anyone that has scored more than 17 goals. He trails the leaders in that category, Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko, by more than 100.
Karlsson had a 7.7% shooting percentage coming into this season, and though some of the boost could be explained away by playing with some exceptional linemates, his current pace is almost impossible to maintain long-term. Whether that means it will fall back to his career average isn’t a guarantee, but somewhere closer to the league average of around 9% is much more likely. That brings out the question, of what to do in terms of an extension.
The 25-year old Karlsson is earning just $1MM this season, and isn’t scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent until the summer of 2020. That means any extension will be buying out two years of restricted free agency, unlike Marchessault’s deal or a potential contract for Neal, who is also a UFA this summer. That helps keep it low, but there is a way to perhaps keep it even lower if the Golden Knights believe in statistical regression more than Karlsson’s ability to shoot better than everyone else in the league.
Paying long-term for him at this point would likely mean handing him a very expensive extension. After all, he’s among the candidates for the Rocket Richard trophy and will be a key part of the first playoff appearance (and perhaps Presidents Trophy) in franchise history. But if they were to sign him to a shorter bridge deal, while still an obvious raise on his current salary, it would force him to prove once again he can be among the league’s best goal scorers before receiving out any long-term deal. The Golden Knights have to be careful not to overpay for production that isn’t likely to repeat—unless of course they think it will, and that this is the new Karlsson.
The contract negotiations for Karlsson will be one of the most interesting parts of the offseason, as he also has arbitration rights. His case will be one that will show the hand of the Golden Knights in terms of traditional or analytical negotiating, and how hard they’ll work to—if we can borrow a line from Karlsson’s old GM—try to keep the core of their team intact.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Could Calgary Flames Make Pitch For Karlsson?
The Calgary Flames seem to be producing in all facets of the game despite a shootout loss today as they still haven’t had a regulation loss in eight straight games. Their top lines are producing, their defense seems to be beginning to develop the chemistry that everyone had hoped and goaltender Mike Smith has been a great acquisition. With everything going right for Calgary, it seems like the team isn’t likely to be too active at the trade deadline this year.
Yet, Sportsnet’s Eric Francis writes that despite all that, he wonders if the Flames should consider looking for an even bigger prize. With the recent rumblings about the possible availability of Ottawa Senators star defenseman Erik Karlsson, Francis wonders if Calgary should go for it all and trade for him now. While on the surface, a deal might seem unlikely as the Flames are already loaded with a group of solid defenders and have few draft picks to trade (just two picks in the first three rounds over the next two years).
The scribe writes that finding a spot for Karlsson would be the least of the team’s problems. He would be a welcome addition no matter how good their defense of Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, Dougie Hamilton, Travis Hamonic and Michael Stone is. He would immediately help an average power play and could offer the team a multi-dimensional player. With some cap room to play with, Calgary could afford most of Karlsson’s contract ($6.5MM AAV) already, although that could end the team’s bid to re-sign Mikael Backlund during the offseason this year.
What could they offer? Quite a bit. While the team might lack draft picks after going out and acquiring Hamonic in the offseason, the team has a number of quality prospects, including Harvard University defenseman Adam Fox, considered to be one of the top college blueliners. They have two quality goaltending prospects in Jon Gillies and Tyler Parsons as well as defensive prospects like Rasmus Andersson and Oliver Kylington as pieces they can offer Ottawa.
Fox, who many believe may choose to stay at Harvard for four years and take the unrestricted free agency route to avoid Calgary’s already crowded blueline, might be the perfect trade chip while he still has value. Add in Andersson, Kylington and last year’s 2016 first-rounder in Juuso Valamaki and the team has quite a bit of defensive depth — perhaps too much.
Francis believes that the team might want to consider making a big move like acquiring a future Hall of Famer, who could take the Flames to another level as they start climbing up the Pacific Division and get ready for the playoffs. General manager Brad Treliving already once this year went out and acquired Hamonic as a big defensive addition. Why not one more?
2018 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: Best Of The Rest
With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, it’s time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2018. We ranked the top 20 pending unrestricted free agents based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Nate Brown, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. You can find numbers 1-10 right here, and 11-20 here.
Today, we’ll look at those names that just missed the cut but will still be interesting options this summer. All of these players were included on at least one ballot, but did not accumulate enough points to crack the top 20.
Michael Grabner, F, New York Rangers — Included on three of five ballots, Grabner is a useful player that nevertheless doesn’t grab many headlines. Despite scoring 20 goals already this season and having a career-high of 34, there aren’t many teams who would slot Grabner into their top-six without hesitation. That’s because he’s best used as a straight speed threat and penalty killer, who counter-punches extremely well but has trouble creating opportunities for his linemates. In fact, Grabner has just 86 assists in 519 career games and has only once registered more helpers than goals in a full season. There’s no doubt he’ll be gobbled up quickly in free agency, but it’s hard to claim he’s one of the absolute top options.
Ian Cole, D, Pittsburgh Penguins — Included on two ballots, Cole is an interesting free agent case that may be clouded by his relationship with his coach this season. Despite being one of Pittsburgh’s more reliable defenders over the past few years, he’s clashed with head coach Mike Sullivan and spent time in the press box as a healthy scratch this season. Whether that plays a role in determining how much he can get on the open market is still to be seen, but there is certainly value in a two-time Stanley Cup defenseman that will be just 29 when he hits free agency.
Henrik Sedin, C, Vancouver Canucks — Amazingly, Sedin was included on just one ballot and was left out of the top 20 despite his twin brother Daniel making it in. He’ll be going wherever Daniel ends up, and you have to wonder whether it will be Vancouver or nothing. Today, agent J.P. Barry told Rick Dhaliwal of NEWS 1130 that he’ll have discussions with the Canucks on the future of the twins before the trade deadline, but there’s a real chance the club will decide to go in a different direction.
Lars Eller, C, Washington Capitals — Included on just one ballot, Eller is an example of how valuable centers are in the NHL. Though he’s never scored more than 30 points in a single season, his consistent effort at both ends of the rink will surely land him a multi-year contract around the league. Whether the Capitals are able to keep him around might be dependent on what happens with John Carlson, as the team doesn’t have a lot of money to give out on July 1st. If he’s able to convince people that he’s closer to Nick Bonino than Jay Beagle and not the other way around, he might be able to land himself a nice chunk of money for the next few years.
Erik Gudbranson, D, Vancouver Canucks — The fact that Gudbranson, the third-overall pick form 2010 was included on just one ballot shows how far he’s fallen. The rough defenseman doesn’t give you any offensive upside, but still could be sought after for his youth and physical play. He’s still logging lots of time in Vancouver, and has a really impressive pedigree to ride into at least one contract. What he does with it will determine his future in the league.
Luca Sbisa, D, Vegas Golden Knights — If Sbisa had been healthy all year and part of the Golden Knights run he may have been ranked higher, but his time on injured reserve has hurt his upside going into the summer. If he comes back and proves that he can still use his skating ability to help the team in the playoffs, teams will certainly add him as a depth defender with upside.
Leo Komarov, F, Toronto Maple Leafs — Komarov is still one of Mike Babcock’s favorites in Toronto, but the media and fans alike have started wondering why exactly that is. Though he’s physical, works hard and is one of the best penalty killers in the league, Komarov’s offensive game has fallen off a cliff with just 11 point on the season despite playing regularly with Patrick Marleau and Nazem Kadri. If those numbers don’t improve, he may find it hard to secure anything but fourth-line minutes (and money) on his next team, especially as he heads into free agency at 31.