2018 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: 11-20
With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, it’s time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2018. Here is the first half of our top-20 rankings, based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Nate Brown, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. We’ll run numbers 1-10 tomorrow, and release an honorable mention group on Friday.
11. David Perron, F, Vegas Golden Knights — When Perron was scoring 20 goals as a 21-year old in St. Louis, he likely wouldn’t have believed that he’d be joining his sixth NHL team just a few days after his 30th birthday. That’s what could happen this summer if Perron isn’t re-signed by the Vegas Golden Knights, and he hits the open market as one of the most consistent forwards available. The winger has 34 points in 37 games and could realistically set a new career-high should he stay healthy down the stretch. For teams looking for secondary scoring from a do-it-all forward, Perron is the easy answer.
12. Joe Thornton, C, San Jose Sharks — Thornton ranked #3 on our midseason list last season, and ended up taking a one-year, $8MM deal to stay in San Jose. This summer could be much of the same, after he proves his seven-goal 2016-17 was just a fluke. Thornton is still one of the great setup men in the league, and has 32 points in 43 games on the year. After playing through torn knee ligaments in the playoffs, he’s shown off inexplicable health once again by suiting up for all 43 games. At 39 next year there is still time for him to bring home that elusive Stanley Cup.
13. Patric Hornqvist, F, Pittsburgh Penguins — We’ve seen the Penguins lose key players to free agency in the past, and if they can’t find the salary room to fit Hornqvist in there won’t be a shortage of teams calling his agent on July 1st. The 31-year old has never scored fewer than 21 goals in a season in which he played at least 64 games, and it doesn’t look like that streak will end this year. A weapon in front of the net on the powerplay and still capable at both ends of the rink, Hornqvist comes with the added bonus of some recent Stanley Cup experience.
14. Tyler Bozak, C, Toronto Maple Leafs — There’s a lot to like in Bozak’s profile, as an elite faceoff man with solid offensive upside, but he does come with some risk. No one would ever claim he’s a defensive specialist, and his game has slowed considerably over the past few seasons. He also will hit the open market at 32, and has seen his minutes diminished this season. Still, a 40-50 point center with plenty of powerplay experience will be an exciting prospect for a team looking to upgrade their depth down the middle.
15. Rick Nash, F, New York Rangers — Nash has certainly not lived up to his $7.8MM cap hit this season (or the last few), but there will surely be some teams convinced they can bring out some of the greatness that was once so apparent. The 427-goal man has just 11 this season, but can still skate well and kill penalties. Like fellow 33-year old Eric Staal, who has found a career renaissance after a stint in New York (albeit a much shorter one), Nash could be a sneaky bargain on the open market for a team willing to take a chance.
16. Thomas Vanek, F, Vancouver Canucks — Vanek was actually #8 on this list last season, but had to settle for a one-year deal with Vancouver after waiting until September to sign. This year, he’s done what he’s always done and continued to find a way to put up points despite obvious red flags in his game. With 32 points in 45 games and nice chemistry building with Brock Boeser, the Canucks could decide to keep him on for another few seasons as they continue their rebuild. If not, his market is about as easy to predict as the lottery numbers.
17. Patrick Maroon, F, Edmonton Oilers — After last year’s breakout playing mostly with Connor McDavid, Maroon looked like a key piece to the Oilers success going forward. Just a few months into the 2017-18 season though, and he looks like a sure-fire deadline rental with an unclear future. Save for the 27-goal output Maroon had last season, he has scored just 45 goals in 264 career games. If those point totals can creep back up in the second half, maybe someone believes he can be a real top-six option on a multi-year deal.
18. Zdeno Chara, D, Boston Bruins — He’ll be 41. He’s lost much of his mobility. He’s on pace for one of the worst offensive seasons of his career. But he’s still 6’9″ and logging more than 23 minutes a night for the Bruins. Chara isn’t the perennial Norris candidate of a decade ago, but there’s no reason why he can’t be an effective option going forward. He’s still a capable defenseman at even strength and one of the top penalty killing options in the league. With a reduced role he could be even more effective. It would be shocking to see him make it to the open market, but stranger things have happened.
19. Jack Johnson, D, Columbus Blue Jackets — The fact that Johnson wasn’t even in the top-20 of two ballots shows just how far he’s fallen in recent years. Once seen as an integral part of the Blue Jackets blueline, with the ability to quarterback a powerplay and log huge minutes, he’s now asked for a trade out of Columbus to get a bigger role somewhere else. At 31, there’s a real chance that his game may have taken a drastic negative turn and teams could stay away from giving him a long-term contract.
20. Daniel Sedin, F, Vancouver Canucks — Interestingly it’s Daniel, not Henrik Sedin that finds himself in the final spot on our rankings despite the latter having more points this season. Though his twin only missed the cut by a few spots, it’s likely Daniel’s better goal total (ten, to Henrik’s two) that makes up the difference. They won’t be going anywhere separately, but it would be a real shame to see them as part of a franchise other than Vancouver at this point in their careers. At 38 to start the 2018-19 season, it might be Canucks or bust.
Vegas Golden Knights Sign Jon Merrill To Two-Year Extension
The Vegas Golden Knights continue to lock up their pending free agents, this time issuing a two-year extension to Jon Merrill. The deal will pay Merrill $1.375MM per season, and take him to unrestricted free agency after the 2019-20 season. He becomes the fourth such extension handed out by the Golden Knights this season, after Jonathan Marchessault, Brayden McNabb and Deryk Engelland.
Merrill, 25, was the expansion selection from the New Jersey Devils at the draft last year, but has actually played just 14 games for the team this season. That’s because of a combination of injuries and the Golden Knights having too many defensemen on the roster, but when he has been in the lineup he’s done quite well. The former Michigan Wolverine has just two points on the season, but is a positive possession player and can be relied upon in his own end.
Selected in the second round, 38th-overall in 2010, the Devils hoped that Merrill would develop into a sort of shutdown defender that could be played against top competition on a nightly basis. There’s never been a ton of offense there, but he carries penalty killing experience and a big enough body to compete physically when needed (though, that’s still a part of his game that is underdeveloped.)
The Golden Knights still have too many defensemen in the organization, but going forward they’re going to need relatively cheap options to fill in the gaps. If Nate Schmidt gets a big extension, or Shea Theodore wants a long-term deal, relatively small commitments like the $2.75MM given to Merrill will help maintain long-term success. In each of their extensions so far, the Golden Knights have made sure to not go overboard rewarding this season’s production. Even Marchessault, who received a $30MM deal, will look like a bargain if he continues to put up 30-goal seasons.
Even with these moves, the question still remains in Vegas on what will be done with James Neal, David Perron and Luca Sbisa. All three are unrestricted free agents in the summer, and could be used as trade bait closer to the deadline. If the Golden Knights feel like they could replace their production internally without jeopardizing a playoff run, there is still a chance they could sell some assets this season. Otherwise, we may have to get used to these extensions being handed out.
Frank Seravalli of TSN was first to report the deal was done.
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Snapshots: van Riemsdyk, Hutchinson, Dal Colle
Expect James van Riemsdyk to stay with the Toronto Maple Leafs all season. That’s what TSN’s Darren Dreger writes in his latest column, positing that he and fellow pending unrestricted free agents Tyler Bozak and Leo Komarov, are best used as “own rentals” for the playoff push.
While there are some big numbers floating around for any potential van Riemsdyk extension, he’s continued to play an important role on the Maple Leafs, tying Auston Matthews for first on the team in goals with 19.
- The Winnipeg Jets have recalled Michael Hutchinson from the AHL for tonight’s game, explaining that Steve Mason has fallen ill and can’t back up Connor Hellebuyck. To make room, the team has placed Adam Lowry on injured reserve. Hutchinson is an extremely interesting goaltender to keep an eye on this year, as he’s headed for unrestricted free agency in the summer. Though he’s stuck in the minor leagues this season due to Mason’s signing, the 27-year old has dominated the AHL with a .942 save percentage and could land an NHL job in the summer. In 99 career NHL games he does hold a .910 save percentage, and could be an excellent backup option.
- New York Islanders head coach Doug Weight has confirmed that Michael Dal Colle will make his NHL debut tomorrow, the second-last player to do so from the first round of the 2014 draft. Only Connor Bleackley, who never signed with the Colorado Avalanche and re-entered the draft in 2016 (going in the fifth round), is left. Dal Colle was selected fifth overall, and still has some real upside to his game, but will have to quickly prove that he’s ready to take the next step.
Midseason Poll: Will John Tavares Re-Sign In New York?
In July, we asked out readers to take a look ahead at the free agent class of 2018 and determine who would be the very best option available. The instructions were to decide who was the best player, among those who would actually make it to free agency.
At that point, just a few weeks after the 2017 free agent frenzy had occurred, almost 66% of our readers picked John Tavares, believing he’d make it to the open market.
Has that changed with the knowledge that the Islanders will have a new home at Belmont Park within the next few years? Is Tavares going to re-sign with the only franchise he’s ever known?
Obviously, none of us can know for sure until Tavares signs a contract making him one of the highest paid players in the league, or July 1st rolls around. But, where does your confidence lie at this point? Vote below and explain what you think will play out over the next few months.
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Help Wanted: Islanders’ Defense Corps
In his most recent 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet, Elliotte Friedman notes that the New York Islanders need help on defense as they deal with injuries to Calvin de Haan and Johnny Boychuk. Brock Nelson, a pending restricted free agent, is listed as a possible trade chip whose name is “starting to creep out there” though Friedman provides no further details other than noting that the Islanders are in a desperate win-now mode.
That’s mostly because of the continued intrigue around John Tavares and his potential free agency, but it’s not just him that could walk this summer. Josh Bailey, Thomas Hickey, Jaroslav Halak and de Haan are all set to become unrestricted free agents, which could result in a very different Islanders team taking the ice next season. If they’re to compete with this group, it has to happen now.
If the Islanders are to put Nelson up for sale, he would certainly garner interest despite his down year. Coming off three consecutive 20+ goal, 40+ point seasons, Nelson has just 14 points on the season this year playing reduced minutes behind Tavares and Mathew Barzal. His ability and size are still attractive attributes for teams looking to upgrade down the middle, especially when they come with just a $2.5MM cap hit. Most teams in the league could afford to add a contract like that, especially if a defenseman is headed back the other way.
Defense isn’t the only thing Friedman mentions in regards to the Islanders, as he sneaks in a thought about their goaltending situation and a potential interest in Robin Lehner of the Buffalo Sabres. This doesn’t seem to be based on any inside information, but just seems like a logical fit from his point of view—for what it’s worth, Joe Yerdon of NHL.com has considered this idea before as well.
The Islanders could use an upgrade in net, and with Lehner heading towards restricted free agency once again this summer with an increasing price tag, the Sabres might consider moving him for the right price. After all, they do have Linus Ullmark waiting in the minor leagues for his chance in the NHL and a team that has holes all over the roster.
The biggest takeaway perhaps from Friedman’s notes is that the Islanders are indeed a team to watch as the trade deadline approaches next month. With a lot riding on this season to show Tavares where their future lies, and their current position in last place in the Metropolitan Division, we could see some fireworks before long.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
James Van Riemsdyk Looking For $36MM Extension
After James van Riemsdyk scored once again for the Toronto Maple Leafs last night, several members of the media speculated on his upcoming free agent value. van Riemsdyk is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, and is having another solid season in terms of goal scoring. Bob McKenzie relayed during the broadcast on TSN that he believed a five-year deal worth $6MM per season was possible, while Darren Dreger was on TSN radio this morning suggesting a six-year, $36MM deal is more accurate.
The money is right. I think that van Riemsdyk would take $6MM. $6MM frankly on the open market could be considered a hometown discount based on the goals he provides to the Toronto Maple Leafs. In a perfect world, I think JVR would prefer a 6×6 scenario to stay in Toronto.
Dreger suggests that van Riemsdyk does want to stay in Toronto if possible, but that his camp would believe that $6MM number is actually leaving money on the table. That’s the number suggested back in September as well, but the 28-year old winger could be earning himself even more every day.
With 18 goals already, van Riemsdyk is on pace for what would be a career-high 34 goals on the year and a potential spot among the absolute top of the free agent charts. Since Toronto has several other contracts to worry about in the next couple of seasons—most notably, Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner—anything more than $6MM per season (and perhaps even that) could be out of the question.
Nashville Predators Sign Yannick Weber, Anthony Bitetto, Matt Irwin
The Nashville Predators have given themselves some cost certainty among their depth defensemen, signing Yannick Weber to a two-year extension worth a total of $1.35MM. Weber was set to hit unrestricted free agency this summer, but will now be with the club through the 2019-20 season. The team also announced a one-year extension for Anthony Bitetto, worth $650K. Bitetto was in the final season of a two-year deal, and would have also been eligible for unrestricted free agency this summer.
Additionally, a few minutes later, the team announced a two-year deal for Matt Irwin also worth $1.25MM. Irwin was on a one-year deal that was set to expire in the summer, and thus had to wait (like Weber) for January 1st to sign an extension.
Because the Predators have always put a hefty amount of responsibility on their top four, getting depth defensemen locked up for the minimum salary is a key part of their salary structure. Even with P.K. Subban eating a huge chunk of the cap, the team can feel now confident trying to extend Ryan Ellis before he becomes a free agent in the summer of 2019.
Weber, Irwin and Bitetto certainly don’t play huge roles on the team, but their presence as the third-pairing or extra man is still valuable. Until the Predators acquired Alexei Emelin to help cover for Ellis’ long-term injury, Irwin and Weber were the go-to pairing for around 11-13 minutes a night. The two played in all 22 games in last season’s Stanley Cup run, and can be relied upon in at least a limited capacity.
The Predators now have seven defensemen and eleven forwards signed and penciled into the NHL roster for next season, meaning that their remaining ~$12MM (depending on where the cap lands) can be used for landing a big fish on the open market or bringing in more salary in trade. GM David Poile has done a masterful job of retaining the core pieces of his team while adding through trade when necessary, and has built what looks like a sustainable winner at this point. Getting three depth pieces under contract for the league minimum is only the latest example.
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Peter Chiarelli Talks About Direction Of Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers’ season hasn’t gone as expected. After taking the Anaheim Ducks to Game 7 of the second round last year, the Oilers were expected to be a Stanley Cup contender and steamroll over the Pacific Division with a dynamic offense led by Connor McDavid. Instead, Edmonton has just 118 goals on the season and sits 13th in the Western Conference standings with just 39 points through 43 games.
Because of their struggles, head coach Todd McLellan‘s name has been thrown around as a potential scapegoat, while GM Peter Chiarelli has felt some of that heat himself. Chiarelli said as much when speaking with TSN’s Ryan Rishaug today in a long interview that goes in detail on several topics.
Chiarelli once again stated that he would not be firing McLellan this season despite the struggles, and refuses to pin all of the blame on him or his coaching staff. Instead, the GM believes there has been a confluence of issues that have resulted in a poor record and the front office is still working out what exactly has gone wrong. With that, he wouldn’t reveal which direction the team will take at the trade deadline but admitted that a decision would have to be made soon.
Rishaug was quick to mention that McDavid’s entry-level contract is up after this season, at which point his cap hit will balloon to $12.5MM for the next eight years. With Leon Draisaitl already making $8.5MM this season, the Oilers will have trouble adding much in terms of free agency over the coming years. There simply won’t be much money to go around if they’re going to continue to lock up their homegrown talent while paying $21MM to their top two offensive talents.
The Oilers do have expiring assets that could be used as bait as the deadline approaches. Patrick Maroon, Mark Letestu and Mike Cammalleri are all unrestricted free agents at the end of the year and could be interesting additions for various clubs around the league. Beyond that, Ryan Strome, the player acquired in exchange for Jordan Eberle in the offseason (a topic that is broached by Rishaug in the interview) is a restricted free agent that could be viewed as another buy-low candidate for a rebuilding team. Strome is due a $3MM qualifying offer this summer and is arbitration eligible, making it possible that Edmonton can’t even afford him depending on how they view his value going forward.
Looking forward there is quite a number of unknowns in Edmonton. Cam Talbot is only signed through the 2018-19 season and has seen his play drop off this year, while is a trio of veterans with full no-move clauses and big cap hits. Milan Lucic, Andrei Sekera and Kris Russell are all on deals that take them through at least the 2020-21 season, and combine for a $15.5MM cap hit. Though each brings some value to the team, they can only be relied upon as complimentary players at this point in there careers.
It’s unclear which path Chiarelli will take at the deadline, and whether any core pieces will be moved out to try and send the team in a different direction next season. It does seem likely that if there isn’t a marked improvement at this point next year, Chiarelli’s seat might not just be hot, it might be gone.
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Rick Nash Staying Put In New York?
The past few seasons have not been kind to Rick Nash. While Nash has been happy to make over $24MM for his services over the course of the past two seasons and 2017-18, he has done so without much fair value returning to the New York Rangers. The three-time 40-goal scorer, who inked an eight-year, $62.4MM deal with the Columbus Blue Jackets back in 2009 before being traded to New York in 2012, has never found much high-level success with the Rangers outside of a Hart Trophy-caliber campaign in 2014-15. Since then, however, Nash has seasons of 36 and 38 points respectively and is on pace for another sub-40 point campaign again this year, scoring even less frequently than the Boston Bruins’ Riley Nash for example. At a cap hit of $7.8MM, the veteran forward has been more of a drain on the Rangers’ cap space than an asset to the club. As an impending free agent, his future is very much up in the air.
Nash’s struggles have been magnified of late, as Larry Brooks of the New York Post writes, by an ongoing scoring drought and his demotion from the team’s top power play unit. Brooks opines that Nash’s declining production over the past few years has all but canceled out his value as a veteran and leader. Brooks doubts that the Rangers would get much in return should they make the impending UFA available at the coming trade deadline. If so, wouldn’t it make more sense for the Rangers to retain a familiar player for a playoff run rather than part with him for a cheap return?
Nash seems unlikely to move at the deadline and may even stay in New York beyond this season. As Brooks writes, “Nash has been a good player for the Rangers but not the game-breaker management anticipated in sending Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, a first-rounder and Tim Erixon to the Jackets over the summer of 2012. He was supposed to be the missing piece. Instead, he missed his chance…” Brooks complaint is not with the quality of Nash’s play, but his performance relative to the pieces given up to get him and, of course, the price the team pays to have him on the roster. Yet, with the opportunity to re-sign Nash this summer for a much lower price, that stigma will be gone; it would be a fresh start, but with the same team. It’s the same sentiment that TSN’s Darren Dreger echoed recently, when he said that Nash would prefer to stay in New York and the Rangers would like to keep him. Dreger adds that extension talks have not been started, but all signs point to Nash staying with the Blueshirts through 2017-18 and perhaps even beyond.
Snapshots: Extensions, Senators, Coyotes
As CapFriendly points out on Twitter, as of January 1st teams can sign extensions with players on one-year deals. While this immediately brings to mind some of the unrestricted free agents signed in the offseason that are having a strong impact on their team, it could have more of an impact with restricted free agents that settled on a short bridge deal.
One player in such a situation is Erik Gudbranson, who signed just a one-year deal with the Vancouver Canucks in the summer. That deal would bring him to unrestricted free agency this summer, and Rick Dhaliwal of NEWS 1130 caught up with Gudbranson’s agent Mark Guy. No discussions have been had between the two sides yet, but Guy expects they will come together soon to discuss a possible extension. That comes in the midst of trade rumors surrounding Gudbranson as a possible rental option for clubs looking to add some toughness to their defensive unit. The 25-year old brings just a $3.5MM cap hit on the season and has just two points this year.
- The Ottawa Senators continue to struggle, and will try a surprising coaching change to try and right the ship. Head coach Guy Boucher told TSN 1200 radio that assistant coaches Marc Crawford and Martin Raymond have swapped duties and now coach the powerplay and penalty kill respectively, a change that is almost never done in-season. Ottawa ranks near the bottom of the league in both categories, and improvement is necessary if they have any chance of climbing out of the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. They currently sit ahead of just Buffalo in the East, and have a -30 goal differential.
- The Arizona Coyotes will remain at Gila River Arena for another year according to Craig Morgan of AZSports. The team had a chance to opt out of their lease before the end of 2017, but as expected did not exercise the clause. Their lease will renew for another season, though their long-term arena plans are still unclear.