Snapshots: Islanders, Prospects, Recruitment
The New York Islanders will be opening the doors on their new arena at Belmont Park in a few years, but for the time being they needed to find a place to play. Today, the team announced that they would play 12 games at Nassau Coliseum next season, and split time evenly between there and the Barclays Center again in 2019-20.
During the press conference, the Islanders executive group spoke about John Tavares and his pending free agency, saying that it is completely in his hands and that they want him to spend the rest of his career with the club. As Tavares focuses on getting the Islanders back into the playoffs, rumors will continue to bubble up about him going to another city—it certainly won’t be because they don’t want him back as an Islander.
- Corey Pronman of The Athletic (subscription required) has released his midseason draft rankings, and they will definitely raise an eyebrow or two. Pronman has long been a proponent of ranking potential stars over depth players, despite the risk that may be involved. That might explain his ranking of Ryan Merkley at #6 and Brady Tkachuk down at #15. Pronman’s rankings are just another example of how difficult this draft will be to project, as players fall in wildly different categories on various lists. It could lead to more trading on the draft floor, as teams try to acquire “their guy.”
- NHL players don’t turn down an opportunity to help improve their club, and the All-Star weekend was no different. Several reports, including Craig Custance of The Athletic, listed examples of players trying to recruit others that might be heading to free agency soon. Mike Green, Drew Doughty and Erik Karlsson all heard it from players like Auston Matthews, while apparently Steven Stamkos was selling Tampa Bay to everyone who would listen.
Western Notes: Sedins, Doughty, Golden Knights, Hyka
Recent comments from Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin suggest the twin brothers are hoping for another year in Vancouver. Already 37 and trending downwards in their career, the struggling Canucks were considered to be sellers at the trade deadline. However, the Sedin twins return also might throw a wrench into general manager Jim Benning‘s deadline plans.
While the team has several key trade chips to move, including veteran scorer Thomas Vanek and defenseman Erik Gudbranson, Benning might be more likely to retain or extend them to surround the Sedin twins with veteran players, according to J.D. Burke of The Athletic (subscription required). The scribe begins by pointing out that the Sedin’s decision will have major implications to the salary cap and the look of the team. The cost to retain both soon-to-be 38-year-old forwards will be about $10MM, estimates Burke, who adds the team would have to make a decision whether to keep Vanek with the team.
If the Sedin’s stay, will Benning look for assets that might benefit the veteran Sedins, rather than focus on the team’s need to rebuild. Benning has often preferred to acquire players, rather than trade for picks. The team has a lot of prospects coming through the system already, but not trading their assets at the deadline could hurt the future of the team down the road as well. No one is saying the Sedin twins shouldn’t come back. They have been with the franchise since they started their careers and should be welcomed, but not at the expense of the team’s future.
- Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty spoke to the media today at the all-star’s media day. According to Los Angeles’ Times writer Helene Elliott, Doughty said that money and term aren’t the only factor in the way he will approach free agency in 2018-19. “I don’t know if a lot of people think our future looks bright but I think our future does as the L.A. Kings organization,” Doughty said. “We’ve got some young guys that aren’t with us yet that will make a difference in a couple years. We still have that core group of guys. I think we’re trending in the right direction and getting back to hopefully where we were a few years back.”
- Yahoo Sports’ Ryan Lambert writes that while the praise that goes towards Vegas Golden Knights general manager George McPhee is well earned, he believes that Vegas’ unbelievable success should fall on the shoulder of all the other teams’ general managers. The scribe writes that if other general managers had done a better job managing their own rosters, the Golden Knights wouldn’t have been able to get better quality players and picks in order to pad their roster in the initial first year. The expansion draft should net expansion team with back-end forwards and defensemen and No. 2 goalies. However, Florida Panther general manager Dave Talon just handed two top-six forwards to Vegas to get rid of the contract of Reilly Smith, while they opted to move on from Jonathan Marchessault because they didn’t believe he could repeat his 30-goal season from last year. The same can be said for the Minnesota Wild, who gave Vegas forward Alex Tuch and Erik Haula in exchange for draft considerations. There were so many draft considerations from plenty of other teams such as the New York Islanders, the Columbus Blue Jackets and Tampa Bay Lightning. Had general managers made better decisions, perhaps the Golden Knights wouldn’t be the top team in the West. Lambert also adds that the team still has 10 draft picks that will fall in the first two rounds over the next three years. Doesn’t look like Vegas is going anywhere.
- Still with the Golden Knights, SinBinVegas tweets that prospect Tomas Hyka, who was scheduled to play in the AHL All-Star game on Jan. 29, has been replaced with T.J. Tynan as Hyka is now listed as “unavailable for the game.” Vegas plays its first game after the all-star break on Jan. 30, suggesting Hyka might get called up instead. The 24-year-old wing, who signed out of the Czech. Republic, has 12 goals and 31 points in 32 games with the AHL’s Chicago Wolves.
Trade Candidates: Derek Ryan
With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.
In 2016-17, Derek Ryan made headlines as a 30-year-old playing in his first full NHL season after working his way to the highest level through levels like the Canadian University system and pro leagues in Hungary and Austria. The Carolina Hurricanes forward was even nominated for the Masterton Trophy to recognize the perseverance and dedication in took to stick with his NHL dreams much longer than most. In 2017-18, the narrative has changed from Ryan, the feel-good story, to Ryan, the legitimate NHL asset. If you thought Ryan’s 29 points in 67 games as an unheralded, aging rookie was impressive, take a look at his 26 points through 20 fewer games so far this year. Ryan has quietly established himself as a capable, versatile forward and with the Carolina Hurricanes again looking like the odd man out in the Metropolitan Division, the next chapter in Ryan’s story could be that of a key Trade Deadline acquisition.
Contract
Ryan re-signed with the Hurricanes this past summer on a one-year, one-way deal worth $1.425MM. By the Trade Deadline, Ryan will count for less than $500K against the salary cap. He will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.
2017-18
In 47 games, Ryan has nearly matched his offensive totals from last season, and then some. Ryan has already tied his 11 goals and is only three assists shy of his 18 and has done so in 20 fewer games. Ryan is on pace for 19 goals and 26 assists if he stays with the Hurricanes, though even the smallest hot streak, or perhaps a change of scenery, could push him over 20 goals or 30 assists. This season, Ryan has also been a superior five-on-five player, earning the trust of head coach Bill Peters and, in turn, more ice time. Even with a greater role and more exposure this season, Ryan has elite Corsi numbers and has been the best possession player on the roster. Ryan continues to be an asset at the face-off dot too, with a team-leading 56.3% success rate on nearly 600 draws thus far. He’s seen a slight uptick in hits and takeaways without an increase in penalty minutes as, despite a -13 rating that isn’t a true reflection of his game, he continues to be a two-way force who suppresses the opposition better than most of his fellow Carolina forwards. He often takes the ice against the best the other team has to offer and, compared to the team’s -17 goal differential, does well for himself. By all accounts, Ryan has taken another step forward in all facets in 2017-18.
Season Stats
47 GP, 11 goals, 15 assists, 26 points, -13 rating, 10 PIM, 92 shots, 16:18 ATOI, 56.9 CF%
Potential Suitors
While most teams did not even his know his name a few short years ago, Ryan will now be a sought-after depth addition at the Trade Deadline. A responsible, well-rounded forward, Ryan is the type of player that nearly any team could use for the stretch run. With the versatility to play all three forward positions, the depth to his game to line up on the second, third, or fourth line depending on fit and need, and a cap hit that is a total non-factor, there is spot on every contender’s roster for Ryan this season. Who could use him the most? The league’s top team, the Tampa Bay Lightning, are a bit top-heavy on offense and could use a player like Ryan to add balance to their forward corps. The San Jose Sharks and Philadelphia Flyers are in a similar boat. Neither of those three teams have a specific, identifiable need that Ryan could fill, but could greatly use the flexibility he provides as a depth asset.
More specifically, Ryan could be another option for the Pittsburgh Penguins in their continued search for a third-line center. However, the Hurricanes may want to avoid trading Ryan to one of the teams they would need to leapfrog to make the playoffs – especially one with back-to-back Stanley Cup titles. Two other top contenders, the Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals, could really use Ryan as an anchor on their fourth lines. Both teams could use an injection of talent on their energy line, as well as another forward who could fill in throughout the lineup, as they march toward the postseason. The Bruins’ responsible, two-way, possession-heavy game especially seems to fit Ryan.
Likelihood of a Trade
The Derek Ryan story has been a great one, but it’s time for the Carolina Hurricanes to move on. Ryan has been a major surprise and a great addition to the lineup the past two years, but the ‘Canes face an uphill battle to make the playoffs and should get what they can for all of their impending UFA’s. If they so choose, Carolina could bring Ryan back in free agency, but it’s no use holding onto him for this season. The 31-year-old second-year NHLer faces a limited window to win the ultimate prize, a Stanley Cup, and in the midst of an outstanding season, he deserves to join a contender. Despite his amazing climb from the bowels of the hockey world to the highest level, Ryan remains a name that few people really know. Yet, expect him to quietly garner a lot of attention over the next month.
Extension Perception: William Karlsson & Shooting Percentages
The Vegas Golden Knights have been an incredible story for the better part of a year. On March 6th, 2017 the team signed Reid Duke, the first player under contract with the expansion franchise and a symbol for what would transpire in the upcoming months. Duke had been a top pick by the Lethbridge Hurricanes of the WHL, fifth overall in the 2011 bantam draft. He came in with huge expectations for the junior club, only to underwhelm through his first few seasons. He was good, but not great, in those first two years with Lethbridge and fell to the sixth round in the NHL draft.
Minnesota was the team who finally took a chance on him, selecting him 169th overall. That year in junior he would be traded to the Brandon Wheat Kings, where he would again play well, but never come to an agreement on a professional contract with the Wild. Instead, he would head back to junior as an overage free agent, now adrift from the only NHL organization he’d ever been a part of. That feeling is one known by the rest of the Golden Knights squad, after they were left exposed in the expansion draft or sent to Vegas in order to protect a more valuable player.
William Karlsson may be the best example. The Columbus Blue Jackets needed to protect some of their other, more prized players—specifically Josh Anderson, who was left technically unprotected—and ended up trading first and second round picks (and the contract of David Clarkson) to do so. As GM Jarmo Kekalainen said at the time, they did it to “try to keep the core of our team intact.” Karlsson, a good player who had scored 20 and 25 points in his first two NHL seasons was selected by Vegas instead.
If you’ve been following the NHL at all this season, it’s obvious that Karlsson had more to give. He currently ranks only behind Alex Ovechkin in goals with 27, only one fewer than he had scored in his entire North American professional career (NHL and AHL combined) before this season. He sits second on the Golden Knights in points behind only Jonathan Marchessault, eight points ahead of the team’s All-Star forward James Neal.
He also is a restricted free agent this summer.
The Golden Knights have already anointed Marchessault as part of the core moving forward, signing him to a six-year $30MM contract extension at the beginning of the month. The Florida Panthers cast-off is the most dangerous forward on the ice more often than not, and is proving that his 30-goal season in 2016-17 was no fluke. For Karlsson, that question still exists.
There was never an expectation that Karlsson would turn into a potential 40-goal scorer, not even when he was selected 53rd overall by the Anaheim Ducks in 2011. He’d never shown skill like that before, and though if you watch him on a nightly basis you can certainly see where it’s coming from now, there is still some doubt in his ability to replicate this season in the future. Karlsson is shooting a whopping 26.7% this season, which leads Anders Lee by 4% for the league lead. He’s directed just 101 shots on net, the fewest amount by anyone that has scored more than 17 goals. He trails the leaders in that category, Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko, by more than 100.
Karlsson had a 7.7% shooting percentage coming into this season, and though some of the boost could be explained away by playing with some exceptional linemates, his current pace is almost impossible to maintain long-term. Whether that means it will fall back to his career average isn’t a guarantee, but somewhere closer to the league average of around 9% is much more likely. That brings out the question, of what to do in terms of an extension.
The 25-year old Karlsson is earning just $1MM this season, and isn’t scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent until the summer of 2020. That means any extension will be buying out two years of restricted free agency, unlike Marchessault’s deal or a potential contract for Neal, who is also a UFA this summer. That helps keep it low, but there is a way to perhaps keep it even lower if the Golden Knights believe in statistical regression more than Karlsson’s ability to shoot better than everyone else in the league.
Paying long-term for him at this point would likely mean handing him a very expensive extension. After all, he’s among the candidates for the Rocket Richard trophy and will be a key part of the first playoff appearance (and perhaps Presidents Trophy) in franchise history. But if they were to sign him to a shorter bridge deal, while still an obvious raise on his current salary, it would force him to prove once again he can be among the league’s best goal scorers before receiving out any long-term deal. The Golden Knights have to be careful not to overpay for production that isn’t likely to repeat—unless of course they think it will, and that this is the new Karlsson.
The contract negotiations for Karlsson will be one of the most interesting parts of the offseason, as he also has arbitration rights. His case will be one that will show the hand of the Golden Knights in terms of traditional or analytical negotiating, and how hard they’ll work to—if we can borrow a line from Karlsson’s old GM—try to keep the core of their team intact.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Could Calgary Flames Make Pitch For Karlsson?
The Calgary Flames seem to be producing in all facets of the game despite a shootout loss today as they still haven’t had a regulation loss in eight straight games. Their top lines are producing, their defense seems to be beginning to develop the chemistry that everyone had hoped and goaltender Mike Smith has been a great acquisition. With everything going right for Calgary, it seems like the team isn’t likely to be too active at the trade deadline this year.
Yet, Sportsnet’s Eric Francis writes that despite all that, he wonders if the Flames should consider looking for an even bigger prize. With the recent rumblings about the possible availability of Ottawa Senators star defenseman Erik Karlsson, Francis wonders if Calgary should go for it all and trade for him now. While on the surface, a deal might seem unlikely as the Flames are already loaded with a group of solid defenders and have few draft picks to trade (just two picks in the first three rounds over the next two years).
The scribe writes that finding a spot for Karlsson would be the least of the team’s problems. He would be a welcome addition no matter how good their defense of Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, Dougie Hamilton, Travis Hamonic and Michael Stone is. He would immediately help an average power play and could offer the team a multi-dimensional player. With some cap room to play with, Calgary could afford most of Karlsson’s contract ($6.5MM AAV) already, although that could end the team’s bid to re-sign Mikael Backlund during the offseason this year.
What could they offer? Quite a bit. While the team might lack draft picks after going out and acquiring Hamonic in the offseason, the team has a number of quality prospects, including Harvard University defenseman Adam Fox, considered to be one of the top college blueliners. They have two quality goaltending prospects in Jon Gillies and Tyler Parsons as well as defensive prospects like Rasmus Andersson and Oliver Kylington as pieces they can offer Ottawa.
Fox, who many believe may choose to stay at Harvard for four years and take the unrestricted free agency route to avoid Calgary’s already crowded blueline, might be the perfect trade chip while he still has value. Add in Andersson, Kylington and last year’s 2016 first-rounder in Juuso Valamaki and the team has quite a bit of defensive depth — perhaps too much.
Francis believes that the team might want to consider making a big move like acquiring a future Hall of Famer, who could take the Flames to another level as they start climbing up the Pacific Division and get ready for the playoffs. General manager Brad Treliving already once this year went out and acquired Hamonic as a big defensive addition. Why not one more?
2018 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: Best Of The Rest
With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, it’s time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2018. We ranked the top 20 pending unrestricted free agents based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Nate Brown, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. You can find numbers 1-10 right here, and 11-20 here.
Today, we’ll look at those names that just missed the cut but will still be interesting options this summer. All of these players were included on at least one ballot, but did not accumulate enough points to crack the top 20.
Michael Grabner, F, New York Rangers — Included on three of five ballots, Grabner is a useful player that nevertheless doesn’t grab many headlines. Despite scoring 20 goals already this season and having a career-high of 34, there aren’t many teams who would slot Grabner into their top-six without hesitation. That’s because he’s best used as a straight speed threat and penalty killer, who counter-punches extremely well but has trouble creating opportunities for his linemates. In fact, Grabner has just 86 assists in 519 career games and has only once registered more helpers than goals in a full season. There’s no doubt he’ll be gobbled up quickly in free agency, but it’s hard to claim he’s one of the absolute top options.
Ian Cole, D, Pittsburgh Penguins — Included on two ballots, Cole is an interesting free agent case that may be clouded by his relationship with his coach this season. Despite being one of Pittsburgh’s more reliable defenders over the past few years, he’s clashed with head coach Mike Sullivan and spent time in the press box as a healthy scratch this season. Whether that plays a role in determining how much he can get on the open market is still to be seen, but there is certainly value in a two-time Stanley Cup defenseman that will be just 29 when he hits free agency.
Henrik Sedin, C, Vancouver Canucks — Amazingly, Sedin was included on just one ballot and was left out of the top 20 despite his twin brother Daniel making it in. He’ll be going wherever Daniel ends up, and you have to wonder whether it will be Vancouver or nothing. Today, agent J.P. Barry told Rick Dhaliwal of NEWS 1130 that he’ll have discussions with the Canucks on the future of the twins before the trade deadline, but there’s a real chance the club will decide to go in a different direction.
Lars Eller, C, Washington Capitals — Included on just one ballot, Eller is an example of how valuable centers are in the NHL. Though he’s never scored more than 30 points in a single season, his consistent effort at both ends of the rink will surely land him a multi-year contract around the league. Whether the Capitals are able to keep him around might be dependent on what happens with John Carlson, as the team doesn’t have a lot of money to give out on July 1st. If he’s able to convince people that he’s closer to Nick Bonino than Jay Beagle and not the other way around, he might be able to land himself a nice chunk of money for the next few years.
Erik Gudbranson, D, Vancouver Canucks — The fact that Gudbranson, the third-overall pick form 2010 was included on just one ballot shows how far he’s fallen. The rough defenseman doesn’t give you any offensive upside, but still could be sought after for his youth and physical play. He’s still logging lots of time in Vancouver, and has a really impressive pedigree to ride into at least one contract. What he does with it will determine his future in the league.
Luca Sbisa, D, Vegas Golden Knights — If Sbisa had been healthy all year and part of the Golden Knights run he may have been ranked higher, but his time on injured reserve has hurt his upside going into the summer. If he comes back and proves that he can still use his skating ability to help the team in the playoffs, teams will certainly add him as a depth defender with upside.
Leo Komarov, F, Toronto Maple Leafs — Komarov is still one of Mike Babcock’s favorites in Toronto, but the media and fans alike have started wondering why exactly that is. Though he’s physical, works hard and is one of the best penalty killers in the league, Komarov’s offensive game has fallen off a cliff with just 11 point on the season despite playing regularly with Patrick Marleau and Nazem Kadri. If those numbers don’t improve, he may find it hard to secure anything but fourth-line minutes (and money) on his next team, especially as he heads into free agency at 31.
Morning Notes: Seattle, Chabot, Brown
Seattle remains a likely destination for expansion in the coming years, and people have been keeping an eye on domain names for a potential hint at what the team could name themselves. Though this is extremely early in the process and means little, it is interesting that Christina Song, general counsel for the Oak View Group, registered 13 domain names according Chris Creamer at Sportslogos.net.
Cougars, Eagles, Emeralds, Evergreens, Firebirds, Kraken, Rainiers, Renegades, Sea Lions, Seals, Sockeyes, Totems and Whales are the potential nicknames, a wide-reaching group that is in no way guaranteed to include the eventual moniker. Still, it’s fun to think about what a Seattle Kraken uniform would look like, or what colors the Seattle Firebirds would wear.
- Thomas Chabot was told to “get a place” according to Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen, meaning his chances of staying with the Ottawa Senators for the rest of the year are quite good. While GM Pierre Dorion wouldn’t guarantee the young defenseman would be with them all season, it seems likely that they’ll continue to develop him in the NHL for the time being. The 20-year old Chabot has nine points in 24 games this season, and will get a year closer to free agency should he play in 16 more matches.
- Dustin Brown will have a disciplinary hearing today after slamming Penguins’ defender Justin Schultz into the boards last night. Schultz was already on his knees sliding towards the boards when Brown used his stick to push on the defenseman’s back, resulting in a five minute major and game misconduct. Brown was suspended two games in 2013 for elbowing Jason Pominville. The league did not specify whether the hearing would take place over the phone or in person, so it’s not clear how many games he will likely receive if the Department of Player Safety deems it worthy of a suspension.
Minor Transactions: 01/19/18
There will be plenty of minor moves again today as the NHL prepares for the weekend, and we’ll keep track of them right here. Keep checking back throughout the day to find out if your favorite team has tweaked their roster.
- The Winnipeg Jets are coming off their bye week, and have recalled Michael Hutchinson and Jack Roslovic. Hutchinson’s recall likely means that Steve Mason is still dealing with the concussion-like symptoms that took him out of the lineup last week, and provides an interesting opportunity for the younger netminder. Hutchinson has dominated the AHL this season and is set to hit unrestricted free agency in the summer. Showing that he’s capable at the NHL level, even in a limited sample, would go a long way to earning him a contract in a few months.
- Buffalo, fresh off another loss at the hands of the New York Rangers, have recalled Nicholas Baptiste from the Rochester Americans. Baptiste has played four games for the Sabres this season, and has 17 points in 34 games during his time in the AHL. The third-round pick had four points for Buffalo last season, but isn’t expected to make an immediate offensive impact.
- The New York Islanders have placed Casey Cizikas on injured reserve, recalling Ross Johnston from the minor leagues in the process. Johnston can fill a physical role on the Islanders, as the 6’5″ 236-lbs winger currently leads the AHL in penalty minutes with 113. He does have 11 points through 37 games, but won’t be used for his offensive ability in the NHL.
- The Calgary Flames are off their bye week, and with that they’ve recalled Marek Hrivik and Andrew Mangiapane from the AHL. The pair were sent down to continue playing, but were always expected to be brought back up when the week break ended. The Flames are back in action tomorrow afternoon against the Winnipeg Jets.
- Ken Appleby is back up with the New Jersey Devils, this time under emergency conditions. Appleby will likely serve as the backup for Keith Kinkaid tomorrow, while Corey Schneider continues to deal with an injury. Appleby, 22, has now spent time on an ECHL, AHL and NHL roster this season.
- The Minnesota Wild have recalled Kyle Rau from the AHL ahead of their game tomorrow against the Tampa Bay Lightning. It’s Rau’s first call up of the season, but he does have 33 NHL games under his belt with the Florida Panthers. Rau was signed to a one-year, two-way deal on July 1st, and has 21 points in 36 games for the Iowa Wild.
- With Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Nate Thompson dealing with injuries for the Ottawa Senators, the club has recalled forward Colin White from the AHL. The Senators take on the Maple Leafs tomorrow night, and needed a twelfth body to line up at forward. White has 16 points in 30 games for the Belleville Senators this season, but is a big part of the Ottawa plan going forward. The first-round pick could get a longer look down the stretch.
2018 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: 1-10
With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, it’s time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2018. Here is the first half of our top-20 rankings, based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Nate Brown, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. We ran numbers 11-20 yesterday, and will release an honorable mention group tomorrow.
1. John Tavares, C, New York Islanders — There was never any doubt that Tavares would hold the top spot on this list, and he was ranked #1 on all five ballots. The superstar Islanders center will only be 27 on July 1st, and could challenge Connor McDavid for the largest cap hit in the league if a bidding war starts over his services. Even with all of his career success, Tavares may have not experienced a season quite like this one, as he is currently tied for second in league scoring with 54 points in 46 games. There is very little negative that can be said about him, and teams could legitimately change their franchise direction by landing the biggest fish on the market.
2. John Carlson, D, Washington Capitals — Though it’s a steep drop off after Tavares, Carlson is an elite free agent in his own right. It’s rare that a defender of his caliber hits the open market, and the fact that he only just turned 28 makes him a target for 31 teams in the NHL. Logging more than 26 minutes a night this season on a depleted Washington blueline, Carlson trails only John Klingberg in terms of scoring from defensemen with 35 points through 45 games. Though it’ll be a tough case to make at the end of the season, Carlson should get some Norris consideration and could land a huge long-term contract.
3. Evander Kane, F, Buffalo Sabres — Everyone’s favorite trade rumor is headed to free agency after the season, as the Sabres haven’t even approached him to discuss an extension. Unless he’s so enamored with his next team and signs a contract right away, he should be able to pick a landing spot from a dozen or more suitors in the offseason. How many years teams will offer him has been disputed at times, but at just 26 he’s one of the youngest free agents to hit the market and should provide several years of prime performance.
4. James van Riemsdyk, F, Toronto Maple Leafs — van Riemsdyk doesn’t carry the puck a ton, and doesn’t often score from far out, but might be the most dangerous scorer in the league within five feet of the net. He’s well on his way to another 30 goal season this year, even while playing the fewest average minutes since he was 21. Expected to ask for something around $36MM over six years, there will be no shortage of teams looking to add him to their powerplay.
5. James Neal, F, Vegas Golden Knights — Before this season, free agency or even the expansion draft, we looked at Neal’s incomparable consistency and how he was headed for a big contract on the open market. He’s never recorded fewer than 21 goals in a season, and already has 18 this year. Obviously a huge part of what the Vegas Golden Knights have done to start their franchise history, they’ll try to retain him on a reasonable deal. If they can’t, he might just end up scoring 20 for his fifth organization in 2018-19.
6. Josh Bailey, F, New York Islanders — It’s not just Tavares that the Islanders have to worry about leaving this summer, but Bailey (and de Haan below) too. He and Anders Lee have formed the perfect wing pair for Tavares this season, and Bailey is going to blow his career-high in points—set only last season—out of the water just at the right time. He’s 28, has 50 points in 42 games and is a lethal powerplay setup man. Who doesn’t want to add that on the open market?
7. Mikael Backlund, C, Calgary Flames — Maybe underrated because of his personality and lack of flash on the ice, Backlund is nevertheless one of the most valuable assets available this summer. Soon to be 29, he’s coming off back-to-back 20-goal seasons and is a legitimate long-term center option. Centers with 50-point upside and responsible defensive ability don’t hit the market that often, and Backlund should be able to cash in because of it.
8. Paul Stastny, C, St. Louis Blues — Speaking of centers, Stastny is in good position to cash in on one last multi-year contract. The 32-year old is still logging big minutes for the St. Louis Blues, and though he may not be the 70-point man of his youth is still an effective weapon at both ends of the rink. A decline is coming, but with 33 points through 47 games this season including 20 even-strength assists, he will still be able to command an audience on the first day of free agency.
9. Calvin de Haan, D, New York Islanders — That’s right, the third Islanders player in the top 10 is de Haan, who has steadily developed into an excellent all-around defenseman. While he doesn’t have the offensive upside of Carlson, his youth—he’ll turn 27 in May—and ability to plug into a top-4 will still have teams knocking down his door. Our writers had him placed everywhere from #7 to #16, but no one disagrees he’ll have plenty of options on the open market.
10. Mike Green, D, Detroit Red Wings — There was a time, nearly a decade ago, when Green was the shining example of an offensive defenseman. Two years in a row, starting in 2009, he finished second in Norris voting behind a more well-rounded player—first to Duncan Keith, then Zdeno Chara—despite point totals in the seventies. In 2008-09 he even recorded 31 goals, the highest total from a defenseman since Kevin Hatcher in 1992-93, and unmatched in the years since. At 32 years old he won’t be putting up 70 point seasons anymore, but is still an excellent puck mover and can quarterback a powerplay. He’ll likely be one of the stars of the trade deadline and free agent day.
2018 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: 11-20
With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, it’s time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2018. Here is the first half of our top-20 rankings, based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Nate Brown, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. We’ll run numbers 1-10 tomorrow, and release an honorable mention group on Friday.
11. David Perron, F, Vegas Golden Knights — When Perron was scoring 20 goals as a 21-year old in St. Louis, he likely wouldn’t have believed that he’d be joining his sixth NHL team just a few days after his 30th birthday. That’s what could happen this summer if Perron isn’t re-signed by the Vegas Golden Knights, and he hits the open market as one of the most consistent forwards available. The winger has 34 points in 37 games and could realistically set a new career-high should he stay healthy down the stretch. For teams looking for secondary scoring from a do-it-all forward, Perron is the easy answer.
12. Joe Thornton, C, San Jose Sharks — Thornton ranked #3 on our midseason list last season, and ended up taking a one-year, $8MM deal to stay in San Jose. This summer could be much of the same, after he proves his seven-goal 2016-17 was just a fluke. Thornton is still one of the great setup men in the league, and has 32 points in 43 games on the year. After playing through torn knee ligaments in the playoffs, he’s shown off inexplicable health once again by suiting up for all 43 games. At 39 next year there is still time for him to bring home that elusive Stanley Cup.
13. Patric Hornqvist, F, Pittsburgh Penguins — We’ve seen the Penguins lose key players to free agency in the past, and if they can’t find the salary room to fit Hornqvist in there won’t be a shortage of teams calling his agent on July 1st. The 31-year old has never scored fewer than 21 goals in a season in which he played at least 64 games, and it doesn’t look like that streak will end this year. A weapon in front of the net on the powerplay and still capable at both ends of the rink, Hornqvist comes with the added bonus of some recent Stanley Cup experience.
14. Tyler Bozak, C, Toronto Maple Leafs — There’s a lot to like in Bozak’s profile, as an elite faceoff man with solid offensive upside, but he does come with some risk. No one would ever claim he’s a defensive specialist, and his game has slowed considerably over the past few seasons. He also will hit the open market at 32, and has seen his minutes diminished this season. Still, a 40-50 point center with plenty of powerplay experience will be an exciting prospect for a team looking to upgrade their depth down the middle.
15. Rick Nash, F, New York Rangers — Nash has certainly not lived up to his $7.8MM cap hit this season (or the last few), but there will surely be some teams convinced they can bring out some of the greatness that was once so apparent. The 427-goal man has just 11 this season, but can still skate well and kill penalties. Like fellow 33-year old Eric Staal, who has found a career renaissance after a stint in New York (albeit a much shorter one), Nash could be a sneaky bargain on the open market for a team willing to take a chance.
16. Thomas Vanek, F, Vancouver Canucks — Vanek was actually #8 on this list last season, but had to settle for a one-year deal with Vancouver after waiting until September to sign. This year, he’s done what he’s always done and continued to find a way to put up points despite obvious red flags in his game. With 32 points in 45 games and nice chemistry building with Brock Boeser, the Canucks could decide to keep him on for another few seasons as they continue their rebuild. If not, his market is about as easy to predict as the lottery numbers.
17. Patrick Maroon, F, Edmonton Oilers — After last year’s breakout playing mostly with Connor McDavid, Maroon looked like a key piece to the Oilers success going forward. Just a few months into the 2017-18 season though, and he looks like a sure-fire deadline rental with an unclear future. Save for the 27-goal output Maroon had last season, he has scored just 45 goals in 264 career games. If those point totals can creep back up in the second half, maybe someone believes he can be a real top-six option on a multi-year deal.
18. Zdeno Chara, D, Boston Bruins — He’ll be 41. He’s lost much of his mobility. He’s on pace for one of the worst offensive seasons of his career. But he’s still 6’9″ and logging more than 23 minutes a night for the Bruins. Chara isn’t the perennial Norris candidate of a decade ago, but there’s no reason why he can’t be an effective option going forward. He’s still a capable defenseman at even strength and one of the top penalty killing options in the league. With a reduced role he could be even more effective. It would be shocking to see him make it to the open market, but stranger things have happened.
19. Jack Johnson, D, Columbus Blue Jackets — The fact that Johnson wasn’t even in the top-20 of two ballots shows just how far he’s fallen in recent years. Once seen as an integral part of the Blue Jackets blueline, with the ability to quarterback a powerplay and log huge minutes, he’s now asked for a trade out of Columbus to get a bigger role somewhere else. At 31, there’s a real chance that his game may have taken a drastic negative turn and teams could stay away from giving him a long-term contract.
20. Daniel Sedin, F, Vancouver Canucks — Interestingly it’s Daniel, not Henrik Sedin that finds himself in the final spot on our rankings despite the latter having more points this season. Though his twin only missed the cut by a few spots, it’s likely Daniel’s better goal total (ten, to Henrik’s two) that makes up the difference. They won’t be going anywhere separately, but it would be a real shame to see them as part of a franchise other than Vancouver at this point in their careers. At 38 to start the 2018-19 season, it might be Canucks or bust.