Trade Candidates: Nick Holden
With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.
The New York Rangers are selling. That much is well-established. While the main focus of the media is on big names like Ryan McDonagh and Mats Zuccarello, the reality is the only deals that are more likely than not include the team’s impending unrestricted free agents. One such player, and the only Rangers defenseman that fits that description, is Nick Holden. While Holden is not the swift, puck-moving defenseman emphasized by today’s NHL, he still holds value in many facets of the game. In fact, it’s fair to say that Holden has been routinely under-rated throughout his career (at least Patrick Roy thought so). New York knows this too, after acquiring him from Colorado for just a fourth-round pick back in the 2016 off-season only to watch him play a key role on the blue line the past two seasons. Now that they’re on the other side of the table looking to trade him away, they’ll try not to make the same mistake. However, with a “fire sale” potentially about to begin for the Rangers, Holden seems destined to be shipped out for the best offer.
Contract
Holden is in the final season of a three-year, 4.95MM contract extension signed with the Colorado Avalanche in 2014. His cap hit in 2017-18 is $1.65MM, but will count for under $500K at the deadline.
2017-18
Nothing that Holden does on the ice jumps out, though for a defenseman, that can be a good thing. In no way does Holden play a flashy, offensive possession game and his numbers this season prove that. He has just a few goals and a handful of assists on the year, below average Corsi numbers, and almost no role on the power play. Perhaps the most telling detail of his playing style is that the casual hockey fan likely has never heard of him, as his play rarely garners attention. Why then is he playing top-four minutes for the Rangers this year and playing top-pair minutes last year? Holden simply has a solid, no-nonsense game. He plays a safe, dependable style in his own end and can thus be relied on for major minutes without risking a breakdown on defense. Holden is also a physical, but clean player. He has led the Rangers in hits in back-to-back seasons, but does so while taking few detrimental penalties. When given the chance, Holden also has quite the shot and led all Blueshirt blue liners in goal-scoring in 2016-17. It’s easy to say that Holden has taken a step back this season. His offensive totals are way off his pace set last year and his plus/minus and ice time are down as a result. However, as for the hallmarks of his game, Holden is playing just as physical, is blocking more shots, and has improved greatly in turnovers, with fewer giveaways and more takeaways. Holden’s 2017-18 season would give no team any reason to think that he is a game-changer or the answer to all of their problems, but could he be a reliable asset to a contender? Absolutely.
Season Stats
51 GP, 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points, +4 rating, 12 PIM, 48 shots, 19:00 ATOI, 45.0 CF%
Potential Suitors
Holden fits the bill of a player who gets traded every deadline season – a responsible depth defenseman who can play reliable hockey when called upon. Every season contenders seems to add a player like this simply out of convenience rather than necessity. Holden is not the type of player who will radically change the fortunes of a contender, but – especially at that cap hit – he is one worth the asset investment as he can provide reliable defense if necessary. Look for the top teams in the league to take a look at Holden in the next two weeks. The Atlantic trio of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Toronto Maple Leafs could all use depth on the blue line and while at times they have all been connected to bigger targets, surely one or more will decide to settle for a lesser addition. In the Metro, the Washington Capitals could really use some defensive depth and experience and the New Jersey Devils could particularly use a more safe, reliable defender given their current goal-tending crisis. In the Pacific, the Los Angeles Kings would make a nice fit, so long as their playoff position is a little firmer by the deadline.
However, the best fit for Holden seems to be the Central’s Dallas Stars. The Stars have little cap space to work with and have admitted that they won’t be major buyers, but the affordable contract of Holden paired with the responsible, hard-nosed game that head coach Ken Hitchcock appreciates makes for a nice match. Dallas is in good position to at least clinch a wild card spot this season and perhaps play spoiler in the postseason, but regardless of the status of Marc Methot, the team is known to be looking for a defenseman and Holden fits the bill for the type of guy they want and can afford to acquire.
Likelihood of a Trade
If the Rangers are serious about their fire sale, then a Holden trade is nearly a certainty. There has been no word on any extension talks, meaning Holden’s days in New York are numbered; no point in keeping him around just to fade away into free agency at the end of the season. The Rangers got Holden for a fourth-rounder in the off-season two years ago and now, two solid campaigns later and at deadline prices, they should be able to get at least that back. If the fire sale is on, they should take what they can get and move on.
Snapshots: Johnson, Nash, Green
The Columbus Blue Jackets are looking for a landing spot for Jack Johnson, after he requested a trade earlier this season and wants a chance to play a bigger role somewhere before hitting free agency. In tonight’s edition of Insider Trading on TSN with panel members Pierre LeBrun, Darren Dreger and Bob McKenzie, they discuss where Johnson could land.
LeBrun even reports that Columbus is “comfortable they can go out and get a low first-round draft pick,” but that they’d still rather get a forward back for a playoff run of their own. That at least seems to increase the likelihood of Johnson being dealt by the deadline, as even a late first is very valuable for clubs on draft day.
- Rick Nash is clearly on the market, now that the New York Rangers have effectively signaled a rebuild and asked for his no-trade list. Dreger lists the Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars as the top two contenders for Nash, but that as many as ten teams have been in contact with his representatives. Nash is likely going to be one of the top prizes on deadline day, if he even lasts the next few weeks.
- McKenzie chimes in with some news on Mike Green of the Detroit Red Wings, once again linking him to the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Lightning are after a defenseman for their Stanley Cup run, but McKenzie reports that the Red Wings are after a return somewhere between the one they received for Brendan Smith last season (2018 second-round pick, 2017 third-round pick) and the one St. Louis received for Kevin Shattenkirk (effectively 2017 first-round pick, prospect Zach Sanford). Whether Tampa Bay wants to pay that much is unclear, but they do have quite the prospect pipeline already built up if they do start to sacrifice futures.
Ilya Kovalchuk To Again Test NHL Market
Around this time last year, word got out that former NHL superstar Ilya Kovalchuk was considering a comeback. The big, Russian sniper retired from the league in 2013, before even his 30th birthday and just three years into a massive (and now patently illegal) 15-year, $100MM contract with the New Jersey Devils. Kovalchuk returned home to Russia and had played with the KHL’s powerhouse club, SKA Saint Petersburg, every year since. However, his NHL ambitions had him thinking about a return trip across the Atlantic last summer. For much of the latter half of the season and into the off-season, Kovalchuk’s potential return was one of the hottest topics in hockey circles. Then, on July 4th, mere days into unrestricted free agency, Kovalchuk re-signed with SKA and his triumphant return was no more.
Now, a year later, it seems Kovalchuk is up for round two. The veteran scorer has shown no signs of slowing down in the KHL, already racking up 63 points through 53 games this season, and with the Olympics about to begin, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman believes talk of a potential return is about to heat back up (Thought 27). As Friedman alludes to, Kovalchuk’s re-entry into the NHL will be much simpler this summer as the Devils will no longer possess his rights. Last off-season, Kovalchuk’s only chance of a return – outside of signing with the Devils – was to find a team both willing to sign him to an expensive contract and then trade for his rights from New Jersey. Devils GM Ray Shero remarked after Kovalchuk decided to stay in Russia that Kovalchuk never came to him with a contract offer and no team came to him with a trade proposal, so clearly the interest was low in having to acquire a free agent via trade, especially an older one who had been out of the NHL for several years. This time around, that risk will be much less painless as the Devils will no longer hold his rights. Once he turns 35 on April 15th, Kovalchuk will be removed from the “Voluntary Retirement” list and will be made an unrestricted free agent, capable of negotiating a deal with any team in the league.
So where will he end up? The Hockey News clearly expects him to draw a lot of attention, as they ranked him ninth on their 2018 free agent board. Here at PHR, Kovalchuk was an afterthought in our Mid-Season UFA Rankings, not cracking the top 20. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle with certain teams having specific interest in his skill set and others unwilling to take the risk on an aging player with a notoriously selfish playing style. As for Kovalchuk himself, Friedman believes that he would prefer to land in New York City. You can cross the Devils off that list; they’re paying $250K in recapture penalties every year until 2025, so they’re not giving Kovalchuk another dime. Plus, if New Jersey really wanted him, the two sides would have struck a deal last year. So that leaves the Rangers and Islanders as Kovalchuk’s Big Apple options. With John Tavares and possibly Josh Bailey and Calvin de Haan to re-sign, the Isles are not likely suitors. The Rangers on the other hand tend to be a team that’s often interested in the headline-making acquisition and, with Rick Nash coming off the books, have the cap space to add some salary. Kovalchuk and the Rangers could be a pairing to watch for this summer.
Mark Stone, Patrick Maroon Interested In Signing Extensions
While many players are worried about which team they’ll be suiting up for in just a few weeks, two are already thinking about inking extensions in the summer. Mark Stone and Patrick Maroon both spoke about wanting to stay in their respective cities, though they may find different outcomes as the deadline approaches.
First Stone, who told Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia that he wants to stay with the Ottawa Senators long-term and has little doubt the two sides will come to an agreement when he hits restricted free agency this summer. Stone is in the last season of his three-year, $10.5MM contract and has developed into the Senators best forward on most nights. Despite missing the last seven games due to injury, Stone leads the Senators in scoring with 44 points in 44 games and is arguably the league’s best takeaway artist.
Stone will deserve a huge raise if the Senators want to sign him long-term, as he has just a single season left before being eligible for unrestricted free agency. Turning 26 in May, he could demand a contract along the lines of some of the game’s elite wingers. Depending on how Ottawa feels about their finances as they move towards Erik Karlsson‘s 2019 unrestricted free agency, Stone’s contract could come with some substantial hurdles. Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf remain on the books with huge cap hits, and owner Eugene Melnyk has hinted in the past that the Senators would need to cut salary.
Then there is Maroon, who is headed towards unrestricted free agency this summer. According to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required), Maroon’s representatives have already touched base with the Edmonton Oilers to discuss an extension, though if things can’t be completed in the next few weeks one would have to believe a trade could be the result. Even with the Oilers’ recent surge they remain more than ten points out of a playoff spot and have to be looking towards next season and beyond.
Maroon has found his game in Edmonton and developed into an effective player, but with the Oilers heading into Connor McDavid‘s eight-year $100MM contract and Leon Draisaitl already earning $8.5MM per season, they have to be very careful with how they divide the rest of their salary cap. Even though Maroon is on pace to come short of his career-high of 27 goals set last season, he should still get a raise on the $2MM cap hit he currently carries.
The fact that Maroon is relatively inexpensive this season—he would come with only a prorated $1.5MM cap hit since Anaheim is still retaining part of his salary—also increases his trade value. Edmonton could potentially use him as a rental at the deadline, only to try and re-sign him in the summer months. That’s a tricky game to play though, as things can change quickly in the NHL, especially if Maroon were to go to a team with a good chance at the Stanley Cup. There’s no telling what could change his mind and cause him to sign elsewhere after hitting the open market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
David Pope Still “100 Percent Set” On Signing With Detroit Red Wings
Every spring, rumors and speculation start to come out about the top collegiate seniors in the country. Will they sign with the team who drafted them, or will they wait until August and become free agents? Every year we hear about players who could make an impact right away, whether it is Tyler Bozak, Justin Schultz, Kevin Hayes, Jimmy Vesey, Alexander Kerfoot or Will Butcher. Some were never drafted, others never signed.
This year is quite the same, and one name that will immediately pop out is that of David Pope. Pope is in his final season at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, where he has 38 points in 28 games and looks like he’s finally coming into his own physically. The Detroit Red Wings drafted him in the fourth round in 2013, and it seems like he’s destined to stay there.
Speaking with Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required), Pope was quite clear on his intention to sign with the Red Wings.
As of right now, I’m 100 percent set on going to Detroit.
Pope would have the same opportunity that Kerfoot, Butcher and others did last season and could wait until the middle of August to become an unrestricted free agent. If he’s to sign with Detroit though, there are a pair of options.
One, he could sign an entry-level contract with the Red Wings starting in 2018-19 and then appear in some AHL contests down the stretch this season on an amateur tryout contract. Many prospects go this way, including Northeastern’s Zachary Aston-Reese, who signed his two-year entry-level deal with the Penguins on March 17th but played 10 games for the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at the end of the season on an ATO. Now up in Pittsburgh, Aston-Reese’s ELC actually kicked in this season will still be effective next year.
Two, a route sometimes used by prized free agents coming out of college, is to leverage their pending league-wide availability into a contract right away, burning a year and getting closer to restricted free agency. That method was used by Mike Vecchione last season, who signed his entry-level deal, played just two games with Philadelphia and earned a two-year, one-way contract as a restricted free agent this summer. Vecchione was in a slightly different situation because he was undrafted, and therefore could immediately sign with anyone upon leaving college, whereas Pope will have to wait until August.
In Pope’s case, since his two-year entry-level deal will be signed as a 23-year old regardless of the date it is actually inked—ELC’s take your age as of September 15th of the calendar year it is signed in—he could technically burn a year off of it by forcing the Red Wings to sign him for this season like Vecchione. While there is no evidence he would attempt this, it’s certainly something to think about from the Red Wings point of view.
Either way, Pope will certainly be on Detroit’s radar in the coming months. The young forward is another talented winger who could help in a quick rebuild by the Red Wings, and certainly has a chance at being an NHL player before long. As Custance writes, a stint in the AHL is expected, the only question is whether that will be this season for the Red Wings, or next year for someone else.
Snapshots: Three Stars, Plekanec, Talbot
Evgeni Malkin took home the top honors among the NHL’s Three Stars of the Week, after scoring six goals and eight points in just three games. Malkin is turning it on at the right time for the Pittsburgh Penguins, who now find themselves in a Metropolitan playoff spot for the time being.
Amazingly, goaltender Harri Sateri garnered the second star of the week after stopping 88 of 93 shots in his three starts. For the Florida Panthers, who’ve dealt with injuries to Roberto Luongo and James Reimer all season, Sateri’s emergence has been a welcome sight. Not so is the third star, Reilly Smith, who the Panthers sent to the Vegas Golden Knights in the offseason only to see him come into his own offensively. Smith had five points in four games last week and needs just ten more to match his career-high of 51. The 26-year old is a whopping +25 on the season, trailing only teammate William Karlsson (+28) and Boston Bruins defenseman Zdeno Chara (+27) for the league lead.
- In Montreal, Tomas Plekanec remains one of the interesting players to watch for the Canadiens as he heads towards unrestricted free agency at the end of the year. In a frustrated column for Sportsnet, Eric Engels writes that Canadiens’ GM Marc Bergevin should be shown the door if he doesn’t trade Plekanec for something at the upcoming deadline. Engels doesn’t totally disagree with the idea of bringing Plekanec back next season, but posits that the team absolutely has to get an asset out of his expiring deal this year. Vegas, Tampa Bay, Columbus, and San Jose are all examined as potential landing spots for the 35-year old center, who has seen his offensive production fall off a cliff in recent years. Plekanec has also been linked to the Pittsburgh Penguins as an ideal fit for their third line.
- One veteran center with a more certain future than Plekanec is 11-year NHL veteran Max Talbot, who is now playing overseas with the KHL’s Lokomotiv Yaroslavl. Talbot isn’t making an NHL comeback, but he isn’t retiring either. Talbot has earned a one-year extension from Lokomotiv, the KHL announced today. Talbot has served as an alternate captain for Yaroslavl for two years now and had the best offensive season of his career – NHL or otherwise – last season and has shown no sign of slowing down. While the reliable two-way forward won’t be suiting up for Team Canada at the Olympics, he remains one of the best North American skaters not playing in the NHL and Lokomotiv was wise to retain the services of their experienced import.
Western Notes: Jagr, Domi, Blues, Golden Knights
It’s a shame that the Hockey Hall of Fame voted long ago to abolish the selection committee’s ability to waive the three-year post-retirement waiting period for candidates that are exceptional. Because if there is someone that shouldn’t have to wait three years to gain entry into the Hockey Hall of Fame, Jaromir Jagr would seem to be a good bet that person, according to Larry Brooks of the New York Post.
While Jagr is not retired yet, as he remains on loan from the Calgary Flames to Kladno in the Czech League, his career has been exceptional and would deserve that immediate honor of getting his wait time waived that only 10 players have ever earned such as Wayne Gretzky, Gordie Howe and Mario Lemieux. However, that rule was removed back in 1999. Regardless, Jagr has played in 1,733 career NHL games, with 766 goals and 1,921 points.
- In the same article, Brooks also writes that he’s heard the Arizona Coyotes are offering young center Max Domi to teams for the right price. The 22-year-old former first-round pick in 2013 has been struggling in his third season in the NHL. After a solid rookie year in which he put up 18 goals and 34 assists, his numbers have declined as he put up just 38 points in 59 games last year and currently has just three goals in 52 games. The team already moved on from winger Anthony Duclair a month ago as the Coyotes are trying to find the right balance of youth and veterans to start winning some games.
- The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford (subscription required) responds to mailbag questions and suggests that if New York Islanders center John Tavares reaches free agency this summer, he believes the St. Louis Blues will be aggressive suitors for the 27-year-old center. The scribe writes that the team is expecting to have about $13MM available and it should cost between $10 and $12MM to sign Tavares. That will likely make for a tight cap, especially since the team still has to sign several of their own free agents including restricted free agent defenseman Joel Edmundson. However, with the salary cap likely going up and the ability to move out a contract or two, it is very possible the team can afford Tavares. Add in that Tavares is friends with defenseman Alex Pietrangelo and the team is already a playoff team with young winger Vladimir Tarasenko needing a star center to take that next step, there is a good chance he will strongly consider St. Louis. It’s still a long shot, but not unrealistic.
- NHL.com’s Gary Lawless tweets part of an interview with Vegas Golden Knights general manager George McPhee about the trade deadline. The veteran GM says that its still too early to know whether the team will be buyers, sellers or plan to stand pat. “We still don’t know what we’re going to do at the deadline,” said McPhee. “We’re still three weeks away. We’ll know more when we get there. Every team in the league has needs… We’ll see. I like our group. I don’t know if we’re going to do a lot, if anything.”
Snapshots: Tavares, Schmaltz, Hall
As we close out January, we’re still waiting for the rush of trade deadline moves to start. It’s been awfully quite on the market for some time, and as Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) writes, that might be because of John Tavares. It’s not so much that Tavares is available in trade, but that if he is really going to hit the open market in July, teams want to make sure they have enough cap space to take a run at him.
Custance mentions the San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues and Montreal Canadiens as potential players in free agency for Tavares, though those are all speculative at this point. All three could turn into big factors at the trade deadline—in different ways—and could be delaying their decisions as long as possible. For now, we’ll just have to hold tight and wait for the first real foot to drop in the rental market.
- Speaking of the St. Louis Blues, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet included a note about Jordan Schmaltz in his latest 31 Thoughts column, writing that the AHL All-Star is basically blocked from making an impact at the NHL level. That’s because of the Blues’ impressive depth on the right side, and it could lead to him being a trade chip in the next few weeks. Again, that’s just speculation, but Schmaltz certainly would hold substantial value. A first-round pick of the Blues in 2012, Schmaltz has found nothing but success in the collegiate and minor pro ranks, but has received just 13 games of NHL experience to this point. He’s also heading into restricted free agency this summer as he finishes his entry-level contract, and holds arbitration rights.
- Taylor Hall has been fined $5,000 for his hit on Kyle Okposo last night, avoiding suspension. Hall hit Okposo into the boards from behind, resulting in a minor penalty and will have this incident added to his record with the Department of Player Safety. While Okposo suffered no apparent injury on the play and was back at Sabres’ practice today, it easily could have resulted in more serious damage. Now, only Hall’s wallet will feel that pain.
Cap Casualty: Washington’s Deadline Play
The Washington Capitals have surprised a lot of people this season. After getting bounced out of the playoffs by the Pittsburgh Penguins once again, many looked at a roster which was losing the likes of Karl Alzner, Justin Williams, Kevin Shattenkirk, Nate Schmidt and others, and thought they’d take a drastic step backwards in 2017-18. Instead, led by a resurgent Alex Ovechkin the team has 63 points in the standings and leads the Metropolitan Division once again.
Now as the trade deadline looms, many are trying to find ways in which the roster may be supported. The Capitals are buyers once again, knowing that the longer they go without a Stanley Cup appearance for Ovechkin, the less likely he’ll ever get one.
In a specific example, a return home for Mike Green of the Detroit Red Wings has been written about extensively over the past few days after the defenseman took part in the All-Star festivities on the weekend. There’s no doubt that the puck-moving defender would be a nice fit for the Capitals, but he comes with a large, snarling caveat.
The Capitals don’t have any money.
Not in terms of actual dollars available to give out, the Capitals are among the most financially stable teams in the league and could certainly afford to pay Green what’s remaining on the final year of current contract. But the league wouldn’t allow it, as Washington is already carrying a heft cap hit.
Smartly, in preparation for the trade deadline the Capitals have been trying to bank cap space all season. Madison Bowey and Jakub Vrana have each been sent down at least six times, usually just for a single day to spare their cap charge between games. The team, which started the season with very little room to operate, now has a little flexibility for the trade deadline. Just not nearly enough for Green.
The Red Wings defenseman comes with a $6MM cap hit, three times more than the projected salary the Capitals could take on at the deadline. They’d need to clear some real salary to bring someone like him on board, and there aren’t many obvious options to get rid of.
Lars Eller could be one, but he’s been a key part of their forward group since coming over from Montreal in 2016. He’s even on pace to set a new career-high in points as he heads towards unrestricted free agency. Moving his $3.5MM cap hit would certainly give them some extra room, but would blow a hole wide open in their center depth and force Jay Beagle or someone even less experienced into tough minutes.
There’s Brooks Orpik, the much maligned defensive defenseman who was a buyout candidate last summer. His $5.5MM cap hit for this season and next is likely almost immovable, even if he is still logging more than 20 minutes a night. That role is another reason why it would be tough to part with him, especially just to bring in another defenseman. The Capitals are trying to get deeper, not just replace spare parts.
Of course in any deal, Green included, the trading team could retain salary. Up to 50% of the remaining contract, that might have to be case for any acquisition the Capitals make. Whether it is a big name like Green, or even just a minor tweak, Washington is in a weak negotiating position. After sending several assets for Shattenkirk last season, will they really sacrifice more of the future to get a half-priced rental at the deadline?
All cap numbers provided by CapFriendly.
Canucks Prefer To Re-Sign Erik Gudbranson
The Vancouver Canucks were in a strange situation this past summer when it came to extending restricted free agent defenseman Erik Gudbranson. After trading away Jared McCann and a pair of draft picks to the Florida Panthers to acquire Gudbranson the off-season prior, the big rearguard was held to just 30 games in 2016-17 due to injury. Still unsure of what kind of player Gudbranson could be in Vancouver but cognizant of what it took to get him, the Canucks gave the 2010 #3 overall pick an identical contract to the one inherited from Florida: one year and $3.5MM. Fast-forward to today, and the situation is still unclear for the Canucks. Gudbranson will now be an unrestricted free agent this off-season and the struggling squad faces pressure to get what they can for him by the trade deadline. However, even in another limited season – having missed 17 games due to injury and suspension – Gudbranson has shown his capable defensive game and, at 26, still has room to grow. So what do they do?
Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre has an idea. MacIntyre spoke to GM Jim Benning, who made it clear that they would like to extend Gudbranson if possible. “I know he’s had some ups and downs, but until he got hurt he was playing well for us. As long as a player can play in today’s game, you’re always going to need a defencemen who can play physical, especially in our division. There’s always going to be room for a guy like that”, Benning stated, summing up the value that Gudbranson brings.
However, an extension is not done yet and the clock is ticking toward the February 26th NHL Trade Deadline. If a deal cannot be struck, the rebuilding Canucks have no choice but to trade Gudbranson and hope that they get a good return for him. Gudbranson’s agent, Mark Guy, said as much in talking to Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal, ackowledging that the season will likely either end with an extension or with a trade. Benning knows that his job may be on the line and needs to get whatever he can for Vancouver’s impending UFA’s. A trade also wouldn’t rule out the team simply bringing Gudbranson back in free agency too, perhaps adding to the intrigue of shipping him out in the next month. Benning may prefer to re-sign Gudbranson, but it still seems like all signs point to a trade.