Topics in this edition of the mailbag include the types of moves Utah should look to make, the top fourth lines in the NHL, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in one of our last two mailbag columns.
bottlesup: With what the Avalanche are doing right now and with Vegas acquiring Rasmus Andersson, is there a world in which my Stars can possibly make the Stanley Cup Final?
At this point, I wouldn’t be as concerned about Vegas. Yes, they’re better, but they’re a third-round opponent (Dallas isn’t dropping to a Wild Card spot and lining up with the Pacific Division) and with shaky goaltending this season, they’re beatable in a seven-game series. Not saying the Stars would for sure win but they’d have a solid chance.
Now, assuming they get past Minnesota in the first round, Colorado is its own unique test. Yes, they slumped before the break but let’s face it, teams that have a runaway first half tend to take their foot of the gas a little, so to speak. That doesn’t worry me. The Avs would be the favorites in that series but they’re also not unbeatable. I’d say that Jake Oettinger would need to be sharper than he has been this season for them to have a chance.
For Dallas to get the best chance to make it through to the Cup Final, they need to add defensive help. They have a strong top three but then are piecing it together from there with iffier options that you might not want to rely on for 16-plus minutes per game in the postseason. A solid defensive second-pairing blueliner that can help the penalty kill and take some pressure off the third pairing would help. A bit more firepower in the bottom six would help their chances as well. Once they get a better sense of whether Tyler Seguin can return (keeping their LTIR pool intact) or not (an SELTIR placement would add nearly $6MM to that pool), they’ll see how feasible those acquisitions could be.
Long story short, there’s definitely a world in which Dallas gets there. They’re one of the top teams in the league for a reason. They have a strong, experienced core group that has had some playoff success before. They’re not the favorite to come out of the West today but someone has to survive the gauntlet and it could very well be them.
Cla23: The Winnipeg Jets always claimed to be a draft-and-develop team. Meanwhile, they are one of the oldest teams, the Moose are not very good, and a lot of young players want out as they feel they are not getting a chance with the big club; their drafting is poor as well.
Do you think it is time to shake up the management and scouting staff? Scott Arniel should be safe as he doesn’t have much to work with.
It’s fair to say that Winnipeg’s drafting and development hasn’t been great as of late. Part of that is not having some of their better picks as a result of making win-now trades. Losing a first-round pick to retirement at 21 due to a hereditary tissue disorder was something out of their control. But, in general, if you look at their draft history (HockeyDB has a quick snapshot), the results aren’t pretty. And the end result is a system that’s certainly toward the bottom of the league.
As to whether an overhaul is needed, that’s a little harder to answer. We know the Jets are one of the stricter-budget teams in the league and their scouting group is on the smaller side. So is their player development group. Is this a case of simply needing more eyes that could aid on the drafting side and a bigger development team to help those prospects? It’s definitely possible. I’d like to think that could fix at least some of the problem without overhauling things.
I think the only way that an overhaul would be considered is if ownership decided that the current core has gone as far as they can and that it’s time to commit to a multi-year rebuild. At that time, maybe you bring in some new decision makers in management and scouting. I’m not sure the market could survive any sort of extended rebuild from an attendance and revenue standpoint and the fact they’ve re-signed all the veteran players they have suggests that’s not even being considered. So, for now, the more realistic hope would be that the front office gets a bigger budget to work with to rectify some of the drafting and development issues and hope that over time, that gets things back in the right direction.
GBear: The Mammoth seem to be a legit threat to make the playoffs, what move(s) do you foresee them making near the trade deadline? I’ll hang up and listen for the answer. ☎️
I’ll start with a question of my own. Where does GM Bill Armstrong feel his team is within the rebuilding cycle? Are they in the ‘happy to be here’ phase or aiming higher? The answer to that dictates the answer to your question.
I have them in the former. They’re not a top-three team in the loaded Central Division and I don’t think they beat Vegas or Edmonton if they wind up crossing over. I suspect Armstrong feels the same way so it’s probably not the time to swing big.
However, he should also want to reward his roster with some reinforcements, albeit more of the depth variety. An upgrade over Nick DeSimone and Olli Maatta is a small move that can give the back end a bit of help. There should be several of those players on the move that would only cost the Mammoth one of their previously-acquired selections. Up front, getting Logan Cooley back should be enough of an upgrade down the middle so I’d look at the wing. Someone like Michael Bunting makes a lot of sense. With the right fit, he can play basically on any line, allowing them to deepen the lineup. He plays with some jam which should appeal to Andre Tourigny. And he’s only 30; it’s plausible that they’d want to give him a multi-year deal if things went well so he feels like a fit on that front as well. And, again, their surplus picks should cover a big chunk of the acquisition cost.
Even if they wind up shoring up their group for an early playoff exit, a team can learn a lot from that short series by getting that taste. That’s worth using some assets to try to help solidify while also being restrained knowing that the bigger moves (that we know Armstrong will sniff around on) will likely come in the offseason.
Unclemike1526: With Frondell and Kantserov coming late this year in all likelihood, and Murphy and maybe Dickinson too being moved, Name the one guy (under 30) the Hawks could get in a trade that can put the puck in the net? A flat-out scorer. They need that more than anything. Frondell can take Dickinson’s spot eventually and Del Mastro can take Murphy’s; there has to be somebody out there, right? I don’t want to move Mikheyev or Grzelcyk and would rather re-sign them. Grzelcyk is solid and Mikheyev is too valuable as a PK guy. They need a scorer, right? The time for draft picks is over. Thanks.
Unfortunately, this isn’t the time of year when a lot of under-30 impact scorers tend to be moved. But if St. Louis is ready to shake things up, making a run at Jordan Kyrou makes sense. He’s not having a great year this season but before that, he had three straight 30-plus-goal seasons so that should fit the bill for what you’re looking for. He’s 27 and signed for five more years after this one at $8.125MM, a price tag and term the Blackhawks can afford. It’d take parting with a key youngster and a quality pick or prospect but if the goal is to get an upgrade to help take the next step, he might be it. Admittedly, I’m not sure he’s a great fit with Connor Bedard but talent is talent and he’d be a big upgrade.
On a smaller scale, they’re the type of team I could see wanting to take a look at Patrik Laine. It’s starting to sound like Montreal is willing to retain money to move him and take a negligible at best return for him to open up cap space for themselves. Chicago has loads of cap space and a six-week flyer to see how the 27-year-old might fare with a fresh start and if he might be a short-term solution for a couple of years after this. It runs counter to them being a seller but if the cost is next to nothing (or nothing), it’s a dart throw that might be worth making.
Daniel M: Blake Lizotte’s recent re-signing has me wondering if the Penguins have the best 4th line in the NHL right now. Their underlying numbers look really good, even though they start a ton of their shifts in the defensive zone. They contribute offensively too. What are some of the NHL’s best 4th lines?
Pittsburgh’s trio would be right up there. They’ve really impressed and have been together enough to show that it’s not just short-term good luck. Right now, they may very well be the best.
I pushed this question to the last mailbag so I could watch some games with this question in the back of my mind. Two fourth lines, in particular, stood out. One was Buffalo’s with Jordan Greenway and Beck Malenstyn being centered by Peyton Krebs. It’s a line with a lot of size and physicality but some solid defensive play and a bit of offensive upside to go along with a cycle game. Greenway’s continuing injury woes are certainly a concern moving forward, however.
The other one that caught my eye was Boston’s trio of Tanner Jeannot, Sean Kuraly, and Mark Kastelic. A little penalty-prone, sure, but that’s an energy line with some defensive acumen, a bit of offensive touch, and an ability to cycle a team to death in the attacking zone. That type of line can do some damage as the checking gets a little tighter down the stretch and into the playoffs and I could see it being more successful in the coming weeks.
One of the challenges in evaluating fourth lines is that they’re forever fluid. It’s rare to find a combination that works for an extended period of time. Players get hurt, shuffled in and out of the lineup, or moved up if things are going well. Per MoneyPuck, Pittsburgh’s fourth line of Connor Dewar, Noel Acciari, and Lizotte, is the 18th-most-used line in the league. Not just among fourth lines, that’s all lines. That type of consistency is extremely rare for a fourth line and probably gives it a leg up on the rest overall.
Duke II: After a brief hiatus, let’s get to it: Who are your under-the-radar, pre-playoff fantasy hockey players (scoring & GAA only); two D and G + four skaters, please. Thanks, Crystal Ball!
The Crystal Ball assumes you’re looking ahead to the playoffs and are asking it to forecast based on its predictions of who gets to the final 16. So, with that in mind, here goes:
Defense: Let’s start with Thomas Harley. This season hasn’t been pretty from an offensive perspective, making that early extension sting a bit. However, a refresh with the Olympics should help. 23 points at this point of the season isn’t exactly near the top of the list so he’s someone that would qualify as a little under the radar. If you’re a believer in Utah doing some damage from a Wild Card spot, Sean Durzi puts up solid numbers when he’s healthy and is someone who probably wouldn’t be picked much in a pool. But you’d have to be confident they could pull off an upset to justify picking him.
Goalies: This is a little harder to find an under-the-radar candidate. I could see poolies shying away from Brandon Bussi’s inexperience but someone has to win for them and with Frederik Andersen scuffling at times, Bussi should get a long leash on a team that doesn’t allow a lot of goals. If you think the Islanders can get through a round, Ilya Sorokin also makes some sense. They’re a lower-event team which should keep the GAA down.
Forwards: When looking at Montreal, some may shy away from Ivan Demidov. Even though he’s one of the top rookie scorers this season, rookies generally are riskier in the playoffs. Since this would be his second stint, however, he’s not quite as risky but still under the radar from a likelihood to be picked standpoint. Oliver Bjorkstrand isn’t having a great year in Tampa Bay but fit in well in two rounds last season. An uptick in production wouldn’t be overly surprising, making him a sneaky back-roster selection. Jackson Blake wasn’t overly productive in his first playoff run last season but he’s playing a bigger role this year and is in a division that should allow for another long run this year. Like Bjorkstrand, an uptick from last year’s numbers would make sense and that should get him on the radar. A lot of what has been written about the last two players also applies to Vasily Podkolzin. He was pretty productive last postseason despite seeing time on the fourth line. He’s higher on the depth chart now so building off a career year already with a stronger playoff stat line could very well happen.
Nha Trang: What surprising team in each conference is, in your estimation, for real, and which one is overhyped and waiting for a fall?
I was not a big believer in the Islanders heading into the season. But Sorokin is back to elite form and is the type of goalie who can steal a series. They still have the remnants of a grind-it-out team that can win some 2-1 games in the playoffs. I wouldn’t have them as a contender by any stretch but there might be some staying power down the stretch. I’m honestly a little leery about both the Penguins and Red Wings. Despite so-so numbers, it feels like the goaltending is overachieving at the moment and I still have in the back of my mind that GM Kyle Dubas would probably rather sell in an ideal world. I’m not ready to fully trust them yet as a result. As for Detroit, I’ve seen some great games from them lately and some clunkers. They feel like a bubble team more than a for-real threat at this point.
In the West, it’s a little harder as most teams are where I thought they’d be. I had five teams from the Central making it, four are in right now with Winnipeg being the team that’s out. Those other four are where they’re supposed to be and aren’t really surprises. Meanwhile, Vegas and Edmonton being the top two in the Pacific also isn’t a surprise. Anaheim and Seattle are in the other two spots. Both of those are surprises but I think it’s more likely that both fall than hold on. The Ducks are a little too streaky to be trusted and can’t get consistently good goaltending. The Kraken can’t score enough to be a threat and while they’re stingy defensively, that’s not enough to be a threat even if they do land one of the last two spots. So I don’t really have a for-real surprise to give you for this one.
rayk: Besides McKenna and Stenberg, what three forward prospects are now in your top five forward prospects for the 2026 draft?
I always have to lead with this for these types of questions. I’m not a big draft guy in terms of watching film on incoming players so I always struggle a bit with these ones. I don’t have a personal ranking but I’ll try to give you who I think could be the next forwards picked.
Ethan Belchetz has power forward size and is already over a point-per-game in junior with 30 goals. Teams will see that and dream of an impactful top liner so he should be in that top-five forward group. Viggo Bjorck isn’t lighting it up in the SHL but has top-line skill and strong success against his age group. He should be a top-ten pick which, with the strong cohort of defensemen in this draft, likely lands him in the top five forwards. Given the need for centers, there are two I have in mind for the last slot. Tynan Lawrence has the higher rankings but has scuffled a bit to start his college career. Caleb Malhotra is the riser with the bigger frame and teams will gamble on that frame even if the ceiling isn’t as high. Right now, it’s probably Lawrence as the other forward but if he doesn’t finish strong and Malhotra does, I could see that being flipped.
Gmm8811: Thoughts on how the Hockey Canada scandal players are doing as they attempt to resurrect their careers?
Do I have thoughts on those players off-hand? Not really. I’m not really focused on them or give them any extra thought. But since you asked, I’ll do my best.
I am surprised that Carter Hart has struggled as much as he has. Yes, some inconsistency was to be expected but instead, he just was consistently poor to mediocre most nights before getting hurt. I thought Dillon Dube might have gotten a look but the backlash with Hart’s signing (and rumors before that) probably scared teams off. He’s doing well enough with Springfield that an NHL conversion could be justified but I’m not sure that happens this year. Michael McLeod staying in the KHL has worked out as he’s an impressive performer there but with a three-year deal overseas, he might not be looking for an NHL deal anymore. And Callan Foote was already on the fringes before the scandal so it’s not surprising that he’s on an AHL contract although he’s doing well in limited action in Chicago.
Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry-Imagn Images.