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William Karlsson

Snapshots: Karlsson, Haula, Lightning, Stolarz

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While there has been plenty of talk recently about players potentially signing contract extensions, don’t expect that to be the case between the Golden Knights and center William Karlsson.  In an appearance on Fox Sports Las Vegas (audio link), GM George McPhee indicated that there is no push to get a deal done with his top pivot.  He noted that both sides came into the season looking for clarity and that they will re-assess the situation over the summer.  Karlsson signed a one-year, $5.25MM last summer following a breakout year that saw him collect 78 points, well above his previous career best of 25 so there were plenty of questions regarding whether or not he could duplicate that.  The 26-year-old has slowed down a bit with 30 points in 47 games and will once again be a restricted free agent this summer with arbitration rights.

McPhee also commented on center Erik Haula’s status.  He noted that his rehab is going well but there is no timetable for his return and they remain unsure if he’ll be able to return this season.  Haula sustained what McPhee called a rare injury for hockey players (the exact details are unknown but it pertains to his knee) and has been out of the Golden Knights lineup since early November.

More from around the league:

  • The Lightning hope to have forward J.T. Miller back in their lineup sometime during their upcoming three-game road trip, notes Diana C. Nearhos of the Tampa Bay Times. He has missed the last six games due to an upper-body injury.  Meanwhile, winger Ryan Callahan is also expected to return during this trip.  Head coach Jon Cooper indicated that the veteran re-aggravated something in his upper body (he has missed time with back and shoulder issues) which has caused him to miss the last two games.
  • Flyers goaltender Anthony Stolarz took part in a full practice today, reports Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer and Daily News (Twitter link). He appears to be on track to return following the All-Star break.  Stolarz has struggled this season, posting a 3.90 GAA and a .880 SV% in nine appearances but he will give Philadelphia another option between the pipes.  They could then opt to waive the recently-acquired Mike McKenna or perhaps return Carter Hart to the minors although that scenario seems unlikely at this point given how the youngster has fared so far.  The Flyers carried three goalies earlier in the season and could do that again although they’d need to free up a roster spot first to do so.

Poll: Who Are The Best Centers In The NHL?

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The NHL Network lit up the hockey world recently when they revealed their list of the Top 20 Centers in the league, ranking Connor McDavid as the best in the league ahead of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The number four slot was occupied by Auston Matthews, which ruffled some feathers, while the reigning Stanley Cup champions Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom were down at 13 and 14 respectively.

The Penguins (Croby, Malkin), Maple Leafs (Matthews, John Tavares), Capitals (Kuznetsov, Backstrom) and Oilers (McDavid, Draisaitl) all had two names on the list, while other potential options like Eric Staal, Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Toews, Brayden Schenn, Brayden Point, Ryan O’Reilly, Sean Monahan and Dylan Larkin were all absent.

Since the NHL Network’s fan vote was so different—Jay Beagle ranked 20th on the list—we thought we’d do our own tally here at PHR. In the poll below we’ve listed many options and are asking you to vote for your top group by selecting 10 names. Does Matthews stay in the top five? Can defensive wizards like Anze Kopitar and Patrice Bergeron climb up the rankings? Does the PHR community believe in William Karlsson? Cast your vote for the top 10 centers in the league and make sure to leave a comment explaining your choices.

[Mobile users click here to vote]

*Though Claude Giroux has played center for much of his career, his absence from the NHL Network list means he was likely left off the ballot. We’ve similarly left him out of the poll, along with other part-time centers like Joe Pavelski, Blake Wheeler and Logan Couture. If you feel as though any of them should be included in this group, make sure to leave a comment down below.

Golden Knights, William Karlsson Agree To Terms On A One-Year Contract

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While Golden Knights center William Karlsson was slated to go to arbitration this morning, the hearing didn’t go ahead. Instead, the team announced that they have agreed to a one-year, $5.25MM contract with their top scorer. The deal includes just $500K in signing bonuses.

Before the hearing, the two sides had filed their salary requests.  Karlsson was seeking $6.5MM while the team came in at $3.5MM so the settlement comes in beyond the $5MM midpoint.

The 25-year-old had a breakout season in 2017-18, one that no one could have reasonably expected.  After putting up 25 points in 81 games in 2016-17, the Blue Jackets reached a deal with Vegas for them to take Karlsson instead of winger Josh Anderson or goalie Joonas Korpisalo in the Expansion Draft.  It’s safe to say that the deal worked out extremely well for the Golden Knights.

While he started out in a bottom-six role, that didn’t last long and Karlsson took off after that.  He wound up scoring a whopping 43 goals which ranked third overall in the league while adding 35 assists while becoming their top line pivot.  He also led the league in plus/minus with a +49 rating.  However, he also led the league with a 23.4 shooting percentage, a number that many view as unsustainable and use that as an argument that he is due to regress in 2018-19.

Although he cooled off a little bit in the Stanley Cup Final, Karlsson also had a productive postseason, notching seven goals and eight assists in 20 games which certainly helped to bolster his case and helped him earn a $4.25MM raise in salary compared to what he made last season.

Karlsson will be eligible for restricted free agency with arbitration rights once again next season.  His $5.25MM salary for next season will also represent his qualifying offer at that time.

With the signing, Vegas has all but one of their players signed for 2018-19 with nearly $8MM in salary cap room to work with; RFA defenseman Shea Theodore is still in need of a new deal.

Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston was the first to report (Twitter link) that the two sides reached a settlement before the hearing.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was the first to note via Twitter the value of the deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights Exchange Arbitration Figures

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The very last arbitration hearing on the books, scheduled for Saturday, is with William Karlsson of the Vegas Golden Knights. Almost an impossible to predict contract given his absolute offensive explosion last season, Karlsson and the Golden Knights have exchanged figures today. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports that Karlsson filed for a $6.5MM salary, while the team has offered $3.5MM.

Karlsson, 25, was originally drafted by the Anaheim Ducks in 2011, but was eventually sent to Columbus as part of a package for James Wisniewski. Despite his obvious potential as a defensive center, there wasn’t a ton of opportunity for him to show what he could do on the offensive side of the puck for the Blue Jackets. In 165 games for Columbus he scored just 47 points. Well, after heading to the Golden Knights in the expansion draft he nearly matched that total in just goals, scoring 43 on the season and registering 78 points. He would take home a Lady Byng trophy, and finish in the top-10 for both the Hart and Selke trophies, while also helping the team to a Stanley Cup Finals appearance.

It’s that lack of offensive history that could hurt Karlsson in arbitration, as the team will argue it was an outlier and he poses a real risk of regression next season. Karlsson did shoot an incredibly high 23.4% in 2017-18, a number that is almost certain to go down in the future. If that number dropped to something like 15%, which is still well above league average, Karlsson would have scored fewer than 30 goals had his shot creation stayed the same. Obviously no one knows what will happen down the line for him, but after earning just $1MM last season it’s tough to justify a $5.5MM raise.

There is obviously also the chance that the two sides will come together on a long-term deal that could buy out some of Karlsson’s unrestricted free agent years, but as of yesterday nothing was imminent. Since he is two years away from UFA status, you can bet the Golden Knights will choose for a one-year arbitration award should it get that far. That way he’ll still be a restricted free agent next summer, giving the team more time to negotiate with him.

Snapshots: Offer Sheets, Hall, O’Gara

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With a limited pool of quality unrestricted free agents this year and quite a few impressive names among restricted free agents available, one has to wonder whether this might be the year that a team makes an attempt to pry away one of them with an offer sheet.

Sure, no team has used an offer sheet since 2013 when the Calgary Flames attempted to sign center Ryan O’Reilly away from the Colorado Avalanche. It didn’t work and since then, there hasn’t been one. Yet with names like Noah Hanifin, Dylan Larkin and William Nylander still available, you would think a team might attempt to go the offer-sheet route.

However, Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that won’t be happening this year, if again. The scribe informally polled nine general managers, who all collectively said there would be no offer sheets handed out this summer. One reason is that general managers see it as a way to drive up salaries, which they don’t want, and since almost all offer sheets are matched, then what would be the point? Custance adds that the compensation for offer sheets must be changed, so teams might be more willing to let a player go.

  • Chris Ryan of nj.com analyzes the success of Hart Trophy winners the following year they won, as he wonders how New Jersey Devils Taylor Hall will respond next season after winning the Hart Trophy with a 39-goal and 93-point season. While most of the previous winners (going all the way back to the 2006 season) saw a decline in their play the following year, most of them still put up solid numbers and still were in the voting for the Hart Trophy the following year, even if they didn’t win it. Edmonton’s Connor McDavid finished fifth in the voting the following year, while 2016 Hart Trophy winner Patrick Kane finished sixth the next season.
  • Fluto Shinzawa of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that former Boston Bruins defenseman Rob O’Gara, who was traded at the trade deadline to the New York Rangers as part of the Nick Holden trade felt the trade was bittersweet. The 25-year-old blueliner was still on his entry-level contract and had only played 11 NHL games before the trade, but the four-year Yale University product had already lost some faith in him. In a league where youth thrives, O’Gara had already run out of time as he failed to crack Boston’s rotation and was often passed over for promotion by younger defenseman. In New York, however, he got a legitimate chance to take on a more permanent role, as he played in 22 games, a role he hopes to hold onto this season.

Vegas Golden Knights Sign Colin Miller To Four-Year Deal

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The Vegas Golden Knights have signed restricted free agent Colin Miller to a four-year, $15.5MM contract worth an AAV of $3.875MM, according the Associated Press’ Stephen Whyno. The deal makes him the highest paid defenseman with the Golden Knights.

Miller was one of the key components for Vegas during an impressive run in its inaugural season that took them all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. The 25-year-old had his best year as a pro player with the Golden Knights. He led all defenseman with 41 points, including 10 goals and 31 assists and was a key contributor in the team’s playoff run, where he tallied three goals and seven points in 20 games. He was also a critical part of the team’s power play unit. For Miller, it marks a big raise as he played the last two seasons for $1MM per year.

Acquired through the expansion draft from the Boston Bruins, Miller has quickly taken the reigns as the top defenseman along with Nate Schmidt in Vegas. His average ice time for the year increased from over 15 minutes a game last year in Boston to 19:21 this year with the Golden Knights. Considered to have an elite-level slapshot as he had a record-breaking shot back in the 2015 AHL Hardest Shot competition, clocking in at 105.5 mph, Vegas has asked him to shoot more, which he did all season. However, more importantly, Miller’s defensive game has rounded out this year, which has been key to the blueliner’s success.

The four-year deal means the team opted to offer him a long-term deal that ate into two future unrestricted years. At $3.875MM, the Golden Knights got solid value again from a young, emerging player. The team still has quite a few restricted free agents it must deal with including No. 1 center William Karlsson, as well as Shea Theodore, Tomas Nosek, William Carrier, Philip Holm and Teemu Pulkkinen. Vegas remains in a good situation cap-wise as the team still has a little under $15MM in salary cap space left after the Miller signing and that doesn’t include the money they will get back for David Clarkson, who’s $5.25MM contract can be put onto LTIR when the season starts.

 

West Notes: Blackhawks, Karlsson, Canucks

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The Blackhawks have expressed an interest in moving up from the eighth spot in Friday’s NHL Entry Draft, reports Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times.  However, GM Stan Bowman admitted that given the uncertainty of who will be picked starting at the number three selection, teams thus far have been hesitant to move down.  He also acknowledged that the team is “looking at our options” when it comes to possibly trading the contract of winger Marian Hossa.  While his career is over, he isn’t filing his retirement papers yet so he remains on the salary cap.  While Chicago can just put him back on LTIR for next season (and beyond), a team looking to stay at the cap floor while spending less in actual dollars may have some interest, similar to what Arizona did a couple of years ago with the additions of Pavel Datsyuk and Dave Bolland.

Elsewhere out West:

  • The Golden Knights have not yet started contract discussions with pending RFA center William Karlsson, reports David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. The Lady Byng winner is coming off of a career year where he tallied 43 goals and 35 assists; for perspective, his previous career-best in points was 25.  Accordingly, he figures to be one of the more fascinating RFA cases in recent memory.  Karlsson stated that his preference is to get a long-term deal done this summer.
  • If the Canucks decide to move the seventh selection tomorrow night (something they are open to doing), they’re expected to covet a 20-23-year-old player in return, notes Jason Botchford of the Vancouver Province. That player wouldn’t necessarily need to already be established in the NHL but it seems to be clear that they’re targeting that particular age bracket to line up with their younger core.  If they decide to keep the pick, GM Jim Benning admitted that he’s leaning towards picking a defenseman.

NHL Announces Lady Byng Trophy Finalists

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The Lady Byng Memorial Trophy often doesn’t get the credit it deserves, but in 2018 the high-profile nominees should turn some heads. The three finalists, as voted by the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association, were announced by the league tonight as the Florida Panthers’ Aleksander Barkov, the Vegas Golden Knights’ William Karlsson, and the Buffalo Sabres’ Ryan O’Reilly. Whoever of the three is judged to have “exhibited the best type of sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct combined with a high standard of playing ability” will take home the hardware at the NHL Awards in June.

In many ways, this Lady Byng race is almost a runner-up competition to the Selke Trophy. All three of Barkov, Karlsson, and O’Reilly could have been a finalist for the best defensive player award this season. Barkov is a two-way wizard, Karlsson led the NHL in plus/minus, and O’Reilly continues to be one of the best face-off specialists of his generation. There was no lack of offense either, as Barkov and Karlsson each set career-highs with 78 points, while O’Reilly notched his fifth-straight season of 55+ points. However, they all have shown an adept ability to avoid penalties as well – a major criteria for the Lady Byng. O’Reilly in particular was a shockingly clean competitor in 2017-18, taking just one two-minute minor penalty in 81 games for an average of just one second worth of penalty minutes per game. This was far and away the most impressive mark on the year. Karlsson played in all 82 games, accumulating only six minor penalties for 12 PIM. Barkov was guilty of just seven minors, a total of 14 minutes in the box, all season.

The gentlemanly conduct is apparent among the finalists, as is the high standard of ability at both ends of the rink. All three played nearly game this season as well, showing the most important ability of all – availability. So what could decide the race? Sportsmanship, which is where O’Reilly’s recent remarks could hurt him. The Sabres center recently went on record as saying that he has lost his love for the game while playing in Buffalo. Compare that attitude to those of Karlsson, arguably the best skater on the team who has been the biggest story in hockey in their inaugural season, and Barkov, who has grown into a leader in Florida and led his team to an unlikely late-season surge, and you can see how O’Reilly could lose some votes. We’ll know for sure how it turns out at the NHL Awards on June 20th in Karlsson’s new home town.

Extension Perception: William Karlsson & Shooting Percentages

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The Vegas Golden Knights have been an incredible story for the better part of a year. On March 6th, 2017 the team signed Reid Duke, the first player under contract with the expansion franchise and a symbol for what would transpire in the upcoming months. Duke had been a top pick by the Lethbridge Hurricanes of the WHL, fifth overall in the 2011 bantam draft. He came in with huge expectations for the junior club, only to underwhelm through his first few seasons. He was good, but not great, in those first two years with Lethbridge and fell to the sixth round in the NHL draft.

"<strongMinnesota was the team who finally took a chance on him, selecting him 169th overall. That year in junior he would be traded to the Brandon Wheat Kings, where he would again play well, but never come to an agreement on a professional contract with the Wild. Instead, he would head back to junior as an overage free agent, now adrift from the only NHL organization he’d ever been a part of. That feeling is one known by the rest of the Golden Knights squad, after they were left exposed in the expansion draft or sent to Vegas in order to protect a more valuable player.

William Karlsson may be the best example. The Columbus Blue Jackets needed to protect some of their other, more prized players—specifically Josh Anderson, who was left technically unprotected—and ended up trading first and second round picks (and the contract of David Clarkson) to do so. As GM Jarmo Kekalainen said at the time, they did it to “try to keep the core of our team intact.” Karlsson, a good player who had scored 20 and 25 points in his first two NHL seasons was selected by Vegas instead.

If you’ve been following the NHL at all this season, it’s obvious that Karlsson had more to give. He currently ranks only behind Alex Ovechkin in goals with 27, only one fewer than he had scored in his entire North American professional career (NHL and AHL combined) before this season. He sits second on the Golden Knights in points behind only Jonathan Marchessault, eight points ahead of the team’s All-Star forward James Neal.

He also is a restricted free agent this summer.

The Golden Knights have already anointed Marchessault as part of the core moving forward, signing him to a six-year $30MM contract extension at the beginning of the month. The Florida Panthers cast-off is the most dangerous forward on the ice more often than not, and is proving that his 30-goal season in 2016-17 was no fluke. For Karlsson, that question still exists.

There was never an expectation that Karlsson would turn into a potential 40-goal scorer, not even when he was selected 53rd overall by the Anaheim Ducks in 2011. He’d never shown skill like that before, and though if you watch him on a nightly basis you can certainly see where it’s coming from now, there is still some doubt in his ability to replicate this season in the future. Karlsson is shooting a whopping 26.7% this season, which leads Anders Lee by 4% for the league lead. He’s directed just 101 shots on net, the fewest amount by anyone that has scored more than 17 goals. He trails the leaders in that category, Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko, by more than 100.

Karlsson had a 7.7% shooting percentage coming into this season, and though some of the boost could be explained away by playing with some exceptional linemates, his current pace is almost impossible to maintain long-term. Whether that means it will fall back to his career average isn’t a guarantee, but somewhere closer to the league average of around 9% is much more likely. That brings out the question, of what to do in terms of an extension.

The 25-year old Karlsson is earning just $1MM this season, and isn’t scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent until the summer of 2020. That means any extension will be buying out two years of restricted free agency, unlike Marchessault’s deal or a potential contract for Neal, who is also a UFA this summer. That helps keep it low, but there is a way to perhaps keep it even lower if the Golden Knights believe in statistical regression more than Karlsson’s ability to shoot better than everyone else in the league.

Paying long-term for him at this point would likely mean handing him a very expensive extension. After all, he’s among the candidates for the Rocket Richard trophy and will be a key part of the first playoff appearance (and perhaps Presidents Trophy) in franchise history. But if they were to sign him to a shorter bridge deal, while still an obvious raise on his current salary, it would force him to prove once again he can be among the league’s best goal scorers before receiving out any long-term deal. The Golden Knights have to be careful not to overpay for production that isn’t likely to repeat—unless of course they think it will, and that this is the new Karlsson.

The contract negotiations for Karlsson will be one of the most interesting parts of the offseason, as he also has arbitration rights. His case will be one that will show the hand of the Golden Knights in terms of traditional or analytical negotiating, and how hard they’ll work to—if we can borrow a line from Karlsson’s old GM—try to keep the core of their team intact.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vegas Golden Knights

Current Cap Hit: $69,375,832 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Alex Tuch (Two years remaining, $925K)
D Shea Theodore (One year remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Tuch: $425K

While the brand-new franchise is focused on building up a powerhouse team over the next five years, which means draft picks and more draft picks, which will create a revolving door at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, there should be at least one constant who is already locked in for the future in Theodore. The just-turned 22-year-old is considered to be a long-term piece and despite the team’s overwhelming defensive logjam, the hope is Theodore is on the team’s opening day roster. Theodore shined last year during Anaheim’s playoff run when he along with several other defenseman had to step in for injured players and fared well. Theodore, a offensive defenseman, was a first-round pick of the Ducks in 2013 and despite having just nine points in 39 regular season games last year, he put up eight goals in 14 playoff games.

Tuch, a talented forward acquired near the expansion draft in a side deal with the Minnesota Wild, has a chance to immediately make the team out of training camp. The 21-year-old wing was a first-round pick in 2014 and scored 18 goals for the AHL’s Iowa Wild last year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F James Neal ($5MM, UFA)
F Mikhail Grabovski ($5MM, UFA)
D Jason Garrison ($4.6MM, UFA)
F David Perron ($3.75MM, UFA)
D Luca Sbisa ($3.6MM, UFA)
D Clayton Stoner ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Brayden McNabb ($1.7MM, UFA)
D Jonathon Merrill ($1.14MM, RFA)
F William Karlsson ($1MM, RFA)
D Colin Miller ($1MM, RFA)
D Deryk Engelland ($1MM, UFA)
G Calvin Pickard ($1MM, RFA)
F Jon Marchessault ($750K, UFA)
F Teemu Pulkkinen ($700K, RFA)

The Golden Knights will be looking to move as many of their players at the trade deadline as they can. Neal should be their biggest trade bait as many teams wouldn’t mind adding a goal-scorer right in time for the playoffs. The 30-year-old wing is coming off a 23-goal season in Nashville and has scored 165 goals in the last six seasons combined. The team hopes that playing on a top line should keep his scoring numbers up high so that his price increases at the perfect time, but a recent report that a wrist injury suffered during the playoffs last year is still affecting Neal and he will miss two to four weeks is concerning. The team also has high hopes it can move Perron. After putting up a career-high 28 goals in 2013-14, he has struggled with injuries but rebounded last year with an 18 goal season. If he can stay healthy and produce similar numbers, he might be worth a mid to late pick.

One key decision the team will have to make is what to do with Marchessault, who is coming off a 30-goal season a year ago in Florida. At $750K, he is a bargain for the next year, but if he can duplicate his numbers from last year, he would be in line for a big payday. Complicating the situation is that Vegas head coach Gerard Gallant is a big fan of the 26-year-old and was the head coach in Florida wlast year when Marchessault started his breakout season.

The team also has a number of restricted free agents who they will likely hold onto. While Pickard’s name is rarely mentioned in Vegas as he is the current backup, don’t be surprised if Pickard is penciled in as the goaltender of the future. The 25-year-old struggled with Colorado last year (although he did have one of the worst teams around him), but was a promising prospect before that. Miller is another who should be retained. The 24-year-old was a promising defender in Boston who was just beginning to get full-time work. He got into 61 games last year and showed quite a bit of promise. Karlsson should get a bottom line spot in the lineup. The 24-year-old is coming off a 25-point season and the team hopes he takes his game up a notch.

While Grabovski likely won’t see the ice ever in Las Vegas (freeing the team of his $5MM cap hit), Garrison is a defender who may prove to have some value if he can produce on one of the team’s top defensive lines. The 32-year-old struggled at times in Tampa Bay and his offensive numbers have declined in the past couple of years. McNabb is considered to be an excellent defender and should provide solid defense for Vegas. He missed a lot of time due to a broken collarbone injury he suffered last October, forcing the 26-year-old in and out of the lineup all season and he eventually lost his starting job at the end of the year, but should get regular minutes with the Golden Knights. Sbisa is another player who should get playing time in hopes the team can move him later this year. The 27-year-old blueliner was a solid defenseman, but few teams were interested in his $3.6MM pricetag.

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