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Arizona Coyotes Could Be Early Players On Trade Market

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The regular season is about to begin and with it comes the regular season trade market, which can be both a continuation of long-term team building or more reactionary measures to combat injuries or a slow start. One team that seems likely to be included in early trade conversations are the Arizona Coyotes. The ’Yotes have the pieces, the motivation, and most importantly, the roster crunch that should make them a prime candidate to acquire one of the first major pieces to hit the trade block.

Entering the 2018-19 season, Arizona is the only NHL team that is at the league’s 50-contract limit. A handful of other teams sit at 48 or 49 players signed, but the Coyotes are the only club right up against it. In fact, the Coyotes actually have 52 players under contract, according to CapFriendly. The contracts of recent first-round picks Barrett Hayton and Pierre-Olivier Joseph won’t count against the limit, once both are returned to their respective junior teams, but as of now Hayton remains on the roster. Presumably, Hayton must be returned to juniors. The fact that the Coyotes cannot even make such a simple roster decision exemplifies the inflexibility that the team struggles with. Solving this dilemma ahead of NHL Trade Deadline or college free agent rush later in the season will be a task on the forefront for GM John Chayka and company.

[RELATED: ARIZONA COYOTES ROSTER]

Fortunately, Arizona is set up well to make an “all-for-one”-type deal. The Coyotes have one of the youngest rosters in the league, specifically up front, where the depth of talent in 25-and-under forwards runs well into the minor league ranks. Regardless of who makes the Opening Night roster for Arizona, the team will have two or three well-regarded forward prospects playing for their AHL team in Tuscon seemingly for much of the year. It’s a simple fact of life that not every promising player can see substantial NHL minutes, but can the Coyotes really afford to be wasting talent?

Arizona has not qualified for the playoffs since they went by the name “Phoenix”. The team last saw postseason action in 2011-12, the third-longest drought in the league. The Coyotes have only made the playoffs three times total in the post-lockout salary cap era. Fans are clamoring for a change in fortunes and while the ’Yotes have been considered an up-and-coming team for years now, the rebuild simply hasn’t panned out. The administration has shown more of a willingness to make changes recently, investing in contender-caliber tandem of Antti Raanta and Darcy Kuemper, trading for veterans like Niklas Hjalmarsson, Jason Demers, and Derek Stepan and even signing sought-after hired gun Michael Grabner. The Coyotes are starting to build a roster that structurally looks more like a contender than the past few seasons, while maintaining a low salary cap hit. However, they need to get out from under this roster limit issue and an easy way of doing so would be to package several of their minor league forwards for a veteran name on the rumor mill.

Some may still want to take the slow, cautious approach and see the rebuild through, but after seven years without a playoff game and a Chayka administration that has seen too few top prospects pan out, the pressure is on in the desert. A slow start, even if it caused by an Alex Galchenyuk injury absence or adjusting to game speed for players like Jakob Chychrun, Christian Dvorak, and several new faces, could be enough to pull the trigger on such a deal. Considering all the variables in favor of making a trade, it would be no surprise to see the Coyotes active on the trade market early this season.

Injury Notes: Red Wings, Bogosian, Beleskey, Peca

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The Detroit Red Wings’ defense could look much different to begin the season than many expected. With top pair defenseman Mike Green already shut down and confirmed to be out for at least the team’s opener due to a viral infection, coach Jeff Blashill revealed today that banged-up blue liners Danny DeKeyser, Jonathan Ericsson, and Trevor Daley are all considered questionable to begin the season. As Ansar Khan of MLive.com points out, it could be a very young, inexperienced defensive corps to start the year in Detroit. Niklas Kronwall and Nick Jensen could be the only regulars healthy enough to play, joined perhaps by a veteran like Brian Lashoff or Dylan McIlrath. Outside of those options, rookies will likely make up the rest of the top six. 5’8″ Joe Hicketts, who got a brief look last season, leads the way, with 2016 first-rounder Dennis Cholowski, second-rounder the same year Filip Hronek, and Czech import Libor Sulak in the mix as well.

  • Injury news about Zach Bogosian usually isn’t good and unfortunately, this could be trending in that direction as well. Bogosian has been taking it easy in training camp, working his way back from major hip surgery, but the Athletic’s Joe Yerndon reports that he has still managed to get injured. According to head coach Phil Housley, Bogosian is day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Even worse, Yerndon notes that it is a new injury, unrelated to his hip issues. Bogosian’s career has been marred by frequent injuries and an inability to bounce back quickly. The Sabres have to hope that this case is different, as Bogosian and Marco Scandella will be needed to lead a young defensive unit and groom top overall pick Rasmus Dahlin.
  • It didn’t take long for the New York Rangers to get clarification on Matt Beleskey’s status. After head coach David Quinn said yesterday that it was “too early to tell” the extent of Beleskey’s injury, suffered during a fight on Monday night, the Rangers released an update today. Beleskey will be out two to four weeks with a separated shoulder, the team determined. Since Beleskey was a likely training camp casualty anyway, the only change for the Rangers is that he cannot be placed on waiver while injured. Instead, he will be placed on the injured reserve with only a minor salary cap charge.
  • Montreal Canadiens’ free agent addition Matthew Peca is currently sidelined. The team revealed that he is dealing with a minor groin injury. No timeline has been established for his return. Peca’s NHL ability and role for the Habs is still unclear, so missing preseason action and potentially the start of the season is unfortunate. The former Tampa Bay Lightning prospect will have to hit the ground running upon his return.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Hit: $79,915,155 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Robert Thomas (three years, $894K)
F Zachary Sanford (one year, $875K)
G Ville Husso (one year, $848K)
F Jordan Kyrou (three years, $758K)
F Ivan Barbashev (one year, $742K)
D Vince Dunn (one year, $723K)
F Samuel Blais (one year, $673K)

Potential Bonuses:

Kyrou: $183K
Dunn: $183K
Sanford: $50K
Blais: $3K

Total: $419K

Considering the amount of veterans this team has, its surprising to see so many young players on the team as the Blues have done a nice job over the years of drafting quality players and developing them. Perhaps the most interesting of the lot will be Thomas, the team’s first-round pick in the 2017 draft. The 19-year-old dominated his junior league last season and many people believe he has a great shot at winning a roster spot this season as the team feels that there is no reason to return him back to his junior team. The team also has Kyrou, another top-rated prospect, but the team is more likely to send him to their AHL affiliate as he no longer needs to be returned to juniors. Regardless, however, if he fares well, he could see time with the Blues throughout the season.

Dunn has been a major revelation after surprising a few when he made the Blues out of training camp last season. He had a remarkable season, playing solid defense, producing five goals and 21 points and eventually quarterbacked the team’s top power play line. The team may also start seeing more of Husso, who is their goalie of the future, but needs more seasoning in the AHL. The 23-year-old had a .922 save percentage in 38 games in the AHL last year.

Other interesting prospects include Sanford, Barbashev and Blais who will have to fight for playing time, but all have the skill to work their way in at some point this season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Jay Bouwmeester ($5.4MM, UFA)
D Joel Edmundson ($3MM, RFA)
D Carl Gunnarsson ($2.9MM, UFA)
F Patrick Maroon ($1.75MM, UFA)
G Chad Johnson ($1.75MM, UFA)
D Robert Bortuzzo ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Dmitrij Jaskin ($1.1MM, RFA)
F Robby Fabbri ($925K, RFA)
F Chris Thorburn ($900K, UFA)
F Nikita Soshnikov ($800K, RFA)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($700K, RFA)
F Jordan Nolan ($650K, UFA)

The team should find themselves with extra money next season as the contracts of several defenseman expire, including Bouwmeester’s $5.4MM deal and Gunnarsson’s $2.9MM. Both have been excellent players in the past, but the with emergence of younger defensemen, the team is likely to move on from them or look for them to return at a significantly reduced rate. Some of that available money could end up in the hands of Edmundson who has done an excellent job of replacing Bouwmeester on the top defensive line.

The team also will be keeping a close eye on Fabbri, who has spent much of last year training and conditioning his knee for the upcoming season after undergoing two procedures on his knee. If the scoring winger can stay healthy, he could provide the Blues with an extra dose of offense they weren’t counting on. The team also has high hopes for Maroon, who opted to take less to return home to St. Louis this year. There are rumors that the team will reward him next season for being willing to accept much less than he was worth.

Johnson has been working on one-year deals for a little while, but the veteran backup could be needed if Allen falters in goal this year. While his numbers in Buffalo were horrible, many believe that he could easily bounce back considering the quality defense he’ll have in front of him in St. Louis.

Two Years Remaining

D Alex Pietrangelo ($6.5MM, UFA)
F Brayden Schenn ($5.13MM, UFA)
D Jordan Schmaltz ($700K, RFA)

The team has been thrilled with the play of Pietrangelo, who continues to improve offensively as the team’s No. 1 defender. He is used that way too as he averaged 25:44 of ice time last year, ranking him sixth in the NHL. The 28-year-old has now posted double-digit goals for the second straight years and posted a career-high 54 points this season. He’s finally receiving that respect around the league as he was voted to the all-star game as well as got some consideration for the Norris Trophy this past season.

Schenn is another key player that the team got a tremendous amount of production from this year after acquiring him from Philadelphia in the offseason. Schenn, who likely will move to the second line this year, posted career-highs in goals (28) and points (70) and was a big hit in St. Louis. Read more

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $77,729,424 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Luke Kunin (two years, $925K)
F Jordan Greenway (two years, $917K)
F Joel Eriksson Ek (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses:

Kunin: $500K
Eriksson Ek: $425K
Greenway: $400K

Total: $1.35MM

The team has just three entry-level players and all three will be critical to the team over the next couple of years. Their 2016 first-rounder, Kunin, suffered an ACL injury in April that required surgery. While he is close to be ready to return, he’s still being held out to allow his knee to fully heal. Regardless, the team has high expectations for him. He struggled to capture a full-time role with Minnesota last year, but scored 10 goals in the AHL in just 36 appearances there, while getting 19 games in with the NHL club. The team will need him to step into a full-time role as soon as he’s healthy. Eriksson Ek, the team’s 2015 first-rounder, got himself a full-time role, but struggled to put up points in the bottom-six, posting six goals in 75 games. A bigger role could allow him to take that next step.

The team also has big hopes for Greenway, who the team pried away from Boston University this spring. The 6-foot-6, 226-pound winger should provide the team with a solid power forward, who could jump into the team’s top-six immediately.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Eric Staal ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Eric Fehr ($1MM, UFA)
D Gustav Olofsson ($725K, RFA)
F Matt Hendricks ($700K, UFA)
F Matt Read ($650K, UFA)
D Nate Prosser ($650K, UFA)
G Alex Stalock ($650K, UFA)
G Andrew Hammond ($650K, UFA)

The team will have an interesting decision to make on Staal at the end of this season. Staal, who was coming off a disappointing 13-goal season a few years ago, signed a three-year, $10.5MM deal, which has been one of the team’s best signings in their history. Staal, who many thought might be slowing down, responded with 28 goals in 2016-17 and followed that up with a 42-goal season last year. Now at age 33, what will Minnesota do in a year when he’s 34 and in need of another deal? If he posts another impressive season, the Wild will have to pay up to keep his services. A disappointing year could mean the end of a thrilling ride.

The rest of the group are full of one-year deals in which the players must prove their worth. The team brought in Fehr, Hendricks and Read to shore up their fourth line, which struggled at times last year, while the team also has a pair of veteran netminders fighting for the backup goalie spot in Stalock and Hammond.

Two Years Remaining

F Mikael Granlund ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Mikko Koivu ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Jared Spurgeon ($5.18MM, UFA)
F Charlie Coyle ($3.2MM, UFA)
F J.T. Brown ($688K, UFA)

The team gave Koivu a two-year extension a year ago, but the 35-year-old is starting to fade after a 14-goal, 31-point performance last season and could be moved down a line, especially if Eriksson Ek continues to improve. Koivu still remains the all-time leader in both games played and points, however, but this could very likely be his last contract.

Granlund could also be an interesting situation. The 26-year-old has improved his game over the last two season, posting a combined 47 goals and he had a career-high in assists last year with 46. His second half was also a big success as he posted 45 points in 46 games, almost a point a game. If he can keep that production up, the Wild should look good. Fortunately, the team has two more years to monitor his success before they have to offer him a new contract. Coyle is another player, who has the ability to put up big points, yet Coyle has struggled more recently, posting just 11 goals and 37 points in 66 games. However, a broken fibula could have been a cause of his on-ice struggles. The team hopes that he can bounce back and prove he belongs in the team’s top-six.

Spurgeon has been perhaps the team’s best defenseman this season. The 28-year-old missed 21 games with a partially torn hamstring and rushed back for the playoffs, but wasn’t 100 percent. Already injury-prone, the team still has the veteran for another couple of years before they have to decide on another long-term contract.Read more

Free Agency Notes: Blue Jackets, Islanders, Edler

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Even if the Columbus Blue Jackets are the best team in the NHL this season – something some analytics pundits don’t think is outside the realm of possibility – the recurring story line all season will be the impending free agency of stars Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky. Much has been made about the futures of these two all-world players, but now that training camp has arrived, the question is whether their fates have already been decided.

As The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline writes, Paranin did set a deadline of September 13th for all contract negotiations to be completed, stating that he would not continue negotiations in-season. That deadline has now passed. However, Portzline also notes that this ultimatum was issued not long after Panarin rejected an extension offer from the Blue Jackets. Perhaps Panarin’s deadline was more about pressuring Columbus to trade him prior to the beginning of the season than it was to come together on a new contract. Yet, GM Jarmo Kekalainen does not see it that way: “There’s no such deadline in my book. It’s July 1, 2019″.” The team clearly believes that their best plan of action is to enter the season with Panarin and see how things go, continually pushing for an extension up to or through the trade deadline.

Meanwhile, Portzline notes that Bobrovsky has spent much of his off-season alongside Panarin and there is a chance that he has rubbed off on the veteran goaltender. Negotiations with Bobrovsky have reportedly been ongoing and there is no reason to think that they won’t continue. Of course, the Blue Jackets have no plans to trade Bobrovsky and may not all year. However, Portzline also writes that Bobrovsky’s mood when speaking with the media yesterday implied that he may also be ready to walk at season’s end. Bobrovsky said “After last season, I told the situation to the management of the Blue Jackets, so they know everything. They know my plans for the season. They know my plans for the future. They know everything.” When asked if that meant that this season would be his last in Columbus, he added “We’ll see. You have to ask them.” Portzline even says that Bobrovsky briefly spoke in the past tense about his time with the team and seemed like a person whose mind was made up. It wasn’t exactly the positive note that the team and its fans wanted to begin the season with, but then again success can be the solution to many problems. A strong start to the season, and especially a strong end to the season, could convince either player to re-sign and keep the Blue Jackets trending toward being Stanley Cup contenders.

  • Anders Lee and Jordan Eberle don’t foresee their impending free agency as a similar situation to that of former teammate John Tavares. Rather, both players expressed their happiness with playing for the New York Islanders when speaking with Newsday’s Andrew Gross. They also agreed that they didn’t want their contracts to be a distraction to them or the team and only hoped for a strong start to the season. Lee, 28, is a career Islander coming of the best season of his career and may be a player that new GM Lou Lamoriello and company see as a core piece moving forward. The same could go for Eberle, 28, who excelled last season after coming over from the Edmonton Oilers. Given the Islanders’ enviable salary cap flexibility and prospect depth, the team can afford to give both Lee and Eberle the contracts they want, likely long-term at $6.5MM+ AAV, if they are happy in New York. The same can’t be said for fellow impending UFA Brock Nelson, who also talked with Gross. Nelson has a long way to go to prove he is worthy of a long-term commitment from the Isles and will be given a chance to prove that. Short of a career year for the two-way center, he is likely a trade casualty in the coming season.
  • Despite being included in trade rumors for the past two or three seasons now, Vancouver Canucks defenseman Alex Edler might not be going anywhere. The Athletic’s Jason Brough reports that Edler would like to re-sign with the team this season before the final year of his contract expires. He tells Brough that, were it up to him, he would never play for another NHL team. “If something can be worked out, I would love to stay here,” Edler said, “Even though we’ve had some tough years, this is kind of an exciting thing to go through. There’s change and a lot of young guys are coming in. You see how they are developing. There’s nothing now, but we’ll see. We’ll see what happens.” The veteran seems more than happy to go through the rebuild process with the Canucks and continue to be a leader in the locker room and on the blue line. In that same vein, Brough doubts that Edler will be willing to waive his full No-Trade Clause if Vancouver does look to move him for picks and prospects this year. Edler dodged a question on the subject and continued on about how much he would like to remain with the team. The 32-year-old still has plenty of gas left in the tank and perhaps refusing a trade would really prove his loyalty and earn him a short-term extension. That remains to be seen, but the status of Edler, like any prominent impending free agent, is not a story line that is going to go away this season.

Snapshots: Orpik, Ennis, Bruins-Flames

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While the irony of the situation was clear all along, the assumption was that there was no issue with the Washington Capitals’ trade of Brooks Orpik to Colorado earlier this off-season, the Avalanche’s subsequent buyout of Orpik’s contract, and then the veteran defenseman re-signing with the Caps. However, GM Brian MacLellan told The Associated Press’ Stephen Whyno that the team actually underwent a thorough investigation from the NHL. The league questioned Washington executives about the team’s trade and later signing of Orpik to a lesser salary than the one bought out. It is illegal for a team to re-sign any player they themselves initially bought out, but Orpik was bought out by Colorado. As such, the investigation did not uncover any conspiracy; the league found that the Capitals conducted themselves “above board”, as MacLellan put it. He stated that there would be no further repercussions from what seems to just be an honest coincidence. Whyno reached out to NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly, who confirmed that the Capitals were cleared of any alleged wrongdoing. The Capitals are now set to save significant cap space on the same services. Had they held on to Orpik this summer, he would be making $5.5MM against the cap. Instead, they were able to sign him to a $1MM deal with incentives that is much kinder to their salary cap crunch. It’s fair to be skeptical of that circumvention, but MacLellan affirms that the team “did everything by the book”, making it simply shrewd business management on their part.

  • One player who wasn’t as fortunate as Orpik following his buyout is forward Tyler Ennis. After injuries forced Ennis out of Buffalo last summer, with the Sabres trading him to the Wild, Minnesota also couldn’t get the former rising star going and bought out the remainder of his contract earlier this summer. Ennis’ value has plummeted so far over the past three seasons that it completely overshadowed the fact that he recorded 212 points in 345 games in the five seasons prior. Ennis could only manage to land a one-year deal worth the minimum salary, a $650K pact with the Toronto Maple Leafs, and that only came after a series of meetings with GM Kyle Dubas in which he had to sell himself to the young Toronto executive. Yet, TSN’s Kristen Shilton writes that this has done nothing but motivate Ennis. Speaking with determined veteran at the start of Leafs training camp, Ennis said “Absolutely, I have something to prove. There are a lot of people that doubt me, there are a lot of people that have written me off and I’m just here to show them I have a lot left to give… My goal is to show people that I can play, that I have a lot of talent still and I’m ready to work.” With William Nylander still unsigned and not in camp, Ennis has had the good fortune of filling his spot on a line with Matthews and Patrick Marleau thus far in camp, which is a good way for him to impress the Maple Leafs’ brass. Shilton notes that he has already impressed teammates and coaches alike thus far and could be well on his way to a key role in Toronto this season. It would be quite the rebound story for a player who is correct in his opinion that many people have counted him out, but those same people could soon be forced to change their minds.
  • Believe it or not, the NHL preseason kicks off in just over six hours. The Boston Bruins and Calgary Flames are set to square off in Shenzen, China at the Universiade Sports Center in the first of two match-ups of the 2018 O.R.G. NHL China Games. Despite the odd timing for fans in North America, both the NHL Network and Sportsnet will air the contest, which begins at 2:30 AM Boston time and 12:30 AM Calgary time. For those staying up for the first game of the 2018-19 season, both the Bruins and Flames have released their split squad rosters who have made the trip and will compete in the series. Tonight’s game marks the beginning of Boston’s evaluation of several young forwards fighting for a top-six right wing spot and third-line center spot, while Calgary must determine both who their primary backup goaltender and how the bottom-six will work out.

Shea Theodore, Golden Knights Far Apart In Negotiations

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Much like fellow Pacific Division restricted free agent Nick Ritchie and the Anaheim Ducks, promising young defenseman Shea Theodore and the Vegas Golden Knights remain far from a resolution in contract talks. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun writes that the two sides are currently not close to a deal. While he adds that the status quo can change quickly, he does not presently see an end to the impasse. This comes in conflict with GM George McPhee’s recent statement that a deal would be completed soon.

With Golden Knights training camp opening up today, Theodore’s absence becomes much more apparent. The team, entering just its second season, will begin preparations for the regular season without a player that was likely slotted to begin the season on the top pair. Following the revelation of Nate Schmidt’s 20-game suspension, Theodore would presumably be the best candidate start on the left side for the first quarter of the season, ahead of the likes of Brayden McNabb, Jon Merrill, Brad Hunt, and free agent addition Nick Holden. Until he is re-signed, one of that group will be forced into the top pair. Theodore’s continued absence also hurts Vegas’ blue line depth. Although they all remain unsigned, the team did lose considerable depth in the departures of Luca Sbisa, Jason Garrison, Clayton Stoner, and Philip Holm. With Schmidt on the sidelines and Theodore still unsigned, the team is slated to begin the year with just four defenseman who played in 50+ NHL games last season and only eight with any NHL experience at all.

As such, one would expect the team to do what it takes to get Theodore under contract before the puck drops on the new season. Theodore has not given the Golden Knights any reason to doubt his future effectiveness, as the 22-year-old scored 29 points in 61 games last year while skating in over 20 minutes per night. Theodore trailed only Schmidt in average time on ice and defensive scoring and led all Knights defenders in goals, assists, points, and shots in the postseason. On top of that, if Theodore’s shooting percentage regresses positively – as it should – in a full-season role, he should be even more productive moving forward. While the team can no longer treat the salary cap as a non-factor and thus don’t want to dramatically overpay their young defenseman, Vegas has too many reasons not to resolve these contract talks as soon as possible.

More On Erik Karlsson Trade: Pick Conditions, Extension, Colorado

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Perhaps the biggest move of the off-season was completed earlier today, when Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Erik Karlsson was traded by the Ottawa Senators to the San Jose Sharks. The return: two-way NHL forward Chris Tierney, rookie forward Rudolfs Balcers, collegiate center and 2017 first-round pick Josh Norris, young depth defenseman Dylan DeMelo, and four draft picks. While the Senators don’t know for sure how the likes of Norris and Balcers will pan out, the players acquired in this deal are somewhat identifiable assets with ascertainable ceilings. The picks carry far more potential; however they also each carry conditions. The earliest possible pick chronologically would be a 2019 first-round pick. The Sharks owe the Buffalo Sabres their first round pick in the next NHL Draft as a condition for re-signing winger Evander Kane, but with the additional condition that they make the playoffs. Should they miss the playoffs – a catastrophic result for a team that now has meteoric expectations – the team could opt to send that pick to Ottawa and their 2020 first-rounder to Buffalo if they so choose. If not, and the Sharks make the playoffs as expected, the Senators will land that 2020 first-round pick.

Ottawa will still have an early pick from San Jose in June though, perhaps even earlier than expected. The condition on that pick is that it is the highest of the second-round picks owned by the Sharks: their own and the Florida Panthers’, which ironically was part of the return from the Sharks’ flip of former Ottawa forward Mike Hoffman earlier this year. Florida is expected to improve this season, but playing in the Atlantic Division with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Toronto Maple Leafs means the Panthers face an uphill battle to make the playoffs and could easily end up with a draft slot in the first half of the second round. Whereas, the Sharks should by all accounts be a playoff team and more in the coming season.

Speaking of Hoffman, the Senators learned from that experience with Sharks GM Doug Wilson. As Sportsnet’s  Chris Johnston notes, Ottawa threw in what may as well be a “Mike Hoffman Clause”. After San Jose traded for Hoffman only to trade him hours later to one of the Senators’ division rivals, GM Pierre Dorion added a conditional future first-round pick if Karlsson is traded back to the Eastern Conference this season. The pick must be exchanged by 2022 at the latest.

Finally, the Sharks sent a 2021 second-round pick to the Senators that carries two conditions. The pick itself is conditional upon San Jose re-signing Karlsson, whose current contract expires at the end of the season. If the Sharks both appear in the Stanley Cup Final this year and extend Karlsson, that pick becomes a first-rounder. In summary, at worst the Senators will receive a second-rounder in 2019 and the Sharks’ first-rounder in 2020 and at best they receive three first-round picks between now and 2022 and potentially a first-round and early second-round pick next year.

  • One condition that is already looking good for the Senators is the one that hinges on Karlsson re-signing in San Jose. Although there has been no word from the star defenseman’s camp on his future or thoughts on a contract extension, Wilson already has the future in mind. Although the relatively underwhelming return for a player of Karlsson’s caliber reflects the risk of just one year remaining on his salary, Wilson made the deal with hopes of keeping him around for much longer. Wilson told the gathered media this afternoon that “It’s a long-term approach and we think Erik fits for now and for a long time.” While Karlsson has been clear that he wants to be the highest paid defenseman in the NHL and that would be best served on the open market, the Sharks have the salary cap composition moving forward to meet his contract demands. If the season goes according to plan and the Sharks win or come close to winning the Stanley Cup, with Karlsson playing a key role for what on paper looks like the best defense in the league, he could be tempted to skip free agency and re-sign in San Jose.
  • Although the Karlsson trade was between just two teams, there is no way to truly evaluate the reverberations of this trade without discussing the Colorado Avalanche. The Senators have changed the tone of their public relations approach following this trade, being clear that they have entered a rebuild. However, the fact remains that the Senators don’t own their first-round pick next season. That selection belongs to the Avs as part of the Matt Duchene trade. With Karlsson’s departure, the team that many pegged to be the worst in the league has now lost their best player and have an even better chance of finishing the season in 31st place. This would also give them the best odds in the NHL Draft Lottery and the best odds of drafting projected franchise center Jack Hughes. However, that fate belongs to Colorado, who now stand a very high chance of seeing an already lopsided return for Duchene reach its maximum value. The 2018-19 Senators season will now likely matter more to Avalanche fans than it does to their own. To make matters worse, publicly committing to a rebuild could mean that Duchene, an impending unrestricted free agent, doesn’t even last the season on the Ottawa roster.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Hit: $67,318,095 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Alexander Kerfoot (one year, $925K)
F Dominic Toninato (one year, $925K)
F J.T. Compher (one year, $925K)
F Mikko Rantanen (one year, $894K)
F Tyson Jost (two years, $886K)
F Vladislav Kamenev (one year, $833K)
F A.J. Greer (one year, $741K)
D Samuel Girard (two years, $728K)
D Anton Lindholm (one year, $718K)

Potential Bonuses:

Rantanen: $850K
Jost: $850K
Kerfoot: $213K
Girard: $183K
Lindholm: $183K
Compher: $100K
Greer: $75K

Total: $2.47MM

For a successful team that made it into the playoffs and gave the Nashville Predators a run for their money, it’s a bit surprising that the team got quite a bit of contributions from entry-level players, with Rantanen probably at the top of the list of contributors. After a 20-goal season in his first full season on the team, the 21-year-old took that next step and benefitted from playing with Nathan MacKinnon on the first line, breaking out with a 29-goal, 84-point season. With the top line expected to return this season, don’t be surprised if the winger puts up another big season right before he becomes a restricted free agent and could get rewarded with a long-term contract.

The team expects similar success from Kerfoot, who arrived in Colorado as a four-year college free agent from Harvard University. The 24-year-old posted a 19-goal, 43-point rookie campaign last year as a member of the team’s third line and now is expected to move up a notch and battle Jost for the second-line center position, with the loser moving to right wing on the same line. Jost, scored 12 goals last season in his rookie season, but the 2016 first-rounder is expected to break out if he can earn a spot on that second line as well. Both are likely to have promising seasons.

The 23-year-old Compher is another young talent who will be given every chance to fight for a spot as the left wing on the second line. In his first full season, Compher posted 13 goals and could be in line for a bigger season next year. The team also has high expectations for Girard on the defense. One of the key pieces of the Matt Duchene trade, the then 19-year-old defenseman was able to stay in the NHL, averaging 17:39 ATOI once he was traded from Nashville and posted 20 points in his rookie season and should be able to improve on that as he will likely assume a top-four role already next season.

One interesting prospect is Kamenev, who also came over with Girard in the Duchene deal, but the 22-year-old center was injured one game into his Colorado career, and he missed most of the season. Now healthy, Kamenev has a good chance to earn a role on the team’s third line in hopes of putting up good numbers next year. Toninato may also be an interesting addition as he has a chance to pick up the fourth-line center spot after signing last season out of the University of Minnesota-Duluth.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Semyon Varlamov ($5.9MM, UFA)
F Colin Wilson ($3.94MM, UFA)
D Patrik Nemeth ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Nikita Zadorov ($2.15MM, RFA)
F Sven Andrighetto ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Gabriel Bourque ($950K, UFA)

With cap room at a premium, general manager Joe Sakic had the opportunity to use that to his advantage as he was able to acquire the bloated contract of Brooks Orpik from Washington to acquire their future goaltender in Grubauer, who has posted two straight seasons of .923 save percentages or higher. The Capitals’ backup goalie looks ready for a chance to take a starting role and while he might split time with Varlamov early on, the team’s hopes is that Grubauer steals the job away from him. Varlamov and his $5.9MM contract is set to expire next year, meaning the Avalanche are likely going to allow him to walk.

The team has a pair of defensive players in Zadorov and Nemeth, who will be fighting for contract extensions next season. Zadorov has been a key defensive player for the team, posting 278 hits as well as blocking 106 shots. He even posted a career high in both goals (7) and points (20). Nemeth came over to Colorado from Dallas and immediately jumped into the rotation and led the team with a plus-27 rating and was crucial to the team’s penalty kill and likely will take a third-pairing role once again.

Wilson could be pushed down to the team’s third line or provide a veteran presence on the second line depending if one of the youngsters fails to impress in camp. However, the 28-year-old is coming off of one of his worst-ever seasons as he posted just six goals and 18 points last season. Andrighetto will be another youngster who should get some time in the team’s bottom-six.

Two Years Remaining

D Tyson Barrie ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Carl Soderberg ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Matthew Nieto ($1.98MM, UFA)
D Mark Barberio ($1.45MM, UFA)
D Mark Alt ($725K, UFA)

The 27-year-old took that next step for the Avalanche, putting up career numbers in both goals and points as he posted 14 goals and 57 points last season as he’s proven to be a No. 1 defenseman that the franchise really needs. The team must find a way to lock him up to an extension in July next year.

Soderberg doesn’t post big offensive numbers, but is viewed as a critical shutdown defender, who the Avalanche put up against other teams’ top players. The 32-year-old did put up 16 goals and 37 points last year, but his main responsibility is to center the team’s third line. Nieto will likely end up there with him, who also produced at a career-high as he posted a 15-goal season last year.

Three Years Remaining

F Gabriel Landeskog ($5.57MM, UFA)
D Ian Cole ($4.25MM, UFA)
G Philipp Grubauer ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Matt Calvert ($2.85MM, UFA)

Landeskog has become an integral part of the Avalance’s top line as he posted numbers that are comparable to his best seasons of his career as he posted 25 goals and 62 points. The 25-year-old has added excellent balance to that top line since the team moved on from Duchene. The second-overall pick in 2011 might be able to start meeting the high expectations of his draft status if the chemistry between Rantanen and MacKinnon continue.

Cole, Grubauer and Calvert were all recent additions this offseason with Grubauer having already been discussed. However, the team hopes to get some solid value out of both Cole and Calvert at their respective positions. Cole should provide veteran depth to developing defense and if he plays well enough could beat out Girard or Zadorov for a top-four spot, but is more likely to settle into a third-line pairing. Calvert should be able to provide third or fourth-line depth since his lack of offensive skills would likely prevent him from earning a second-line role.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3MM through 2022-23)
D Erik Johnson ($6MM through 2022-23)

The amazing thing is that Colorado only has two players locked up long-term and considering that MacKinnon was one of the top vote-getters for the Hart Trophy last season after the 23-year-old posted 39 goals and 97 points, the team has a steal of a deal with him. With the rising salaries of star players, the fact that Colorado has MacKinnon locked up for five more years at just $6.3MM only makes their situation better and should allow the team to add even more talent over the next couple of years.

The team also has five more years of Johnson at $6MM, which isn’t as good. While Johnson is a solid defensive defenseman, the 30-year-old is injury-prone and hasn’t been able to play 80 games just once in his 10 NHL seasons. He managed nine goals and 25 points in 62 games last season and still remains the team’s second-best defenseman.

Buyouts

D Brooks Orpik ($2.5MM in 2018-19; $1.5MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: MacKinnon
Worst Value: Johnson

(Excluding entry-level contracts)

Looking Ahead

The Avalanche is a young team that just a year ago many considered to be one of the worst in the NHL. Thanks to the superb play of many of their young players, the team should be in good hands. Colorado has plenty of cap space to handle long-term deals that will need to be given to their many youngsters with Rantanen the most likely to be handed a long-term extension and the team may even have the ability to go after a big-name free agent in a year or two if they continue to improve and show they are the most intriguing team in the Central Division.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Wings Re-Sign Matt Puempel To Two-Year Deal

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There is one less restricted free agent remaining unsigned. With training camp opening up next week, the Detroit Red Wings have re-signed their lone remaining free agent, forward Matt Puempel. The team announced a two-year deal with Puempel, which will make the 25-year-old an unrestricted free agent when the contract expires after the 2019-20 season. No salary details have been disclosed.

Puempel came to Detroit early last season in a trade from the New York Rangers, a one-for-one swap for defenseman – and current free agent – Ryan Sproul. Although Puempel never suited up for Detroit in 2017-18, he still had an impressive season. The hard-working winger was an AHL All-Star and scored at nearly a point-per-game pace, with 57 points in 62 games. Among forwards with 60+ games played, Puempel had the sixth-best scoring rate in the league. The 2011 first-round pick of the Ottawa Senators has not panned out as expected, and likely won’t, but showed some impressive ability last year and can be a strong depth option for the Red Wings.

Of course, the question raised by any Detroit signing is how it impacts the salary cap. Most likely, Puempel has signed a two-way deal since he did not log and NHL game last season. The bigger question is his salary at the NHL level and whether or not it is a comfortable fit within the Red Wings’ cap crunch. Detroit’s payroll for a 22-man roster, which doesn’t include a seventh defenseman, is currently projected to be $82.77MM, almost $3.5MM over the salary cap. The team will gain cap space when Johan Franzen and likely Henrik Zetterberg are placed on long-term injured reserve, but after a defenseman and at least one replacement forward are added, much of that space will be used up. Whether or not Puempel can then fit into the roster remains to be seen.

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