Perhaps the biggest move of the off-season was completed earlier today, when Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Erik Karlsson was traded by the Ottawa Senators to the San Jose Sharks. The return: two-way NHL forward Chris Tierney, rookie forward Rudolfs Balcers, collegiate center and 2017 first-round pick Josh Norris, young depth defenseman Dylan DeMelo, and four draft picks. While the Senators don’t know for sure how the likes of Norris and Balcers will pan out, the players acquired in this deal are somewhat identifiable assets with ascertainable ceilings. The picks carry far more potential; however they also each carry conditions. The earliest possible pick chronologically would be a 2019 first-round pick. The Sharks owe the Buffalo Sabres their first round pick in the next NHL Draft as a condition for re-signing winger Evander Kane, but with the additional condition that they make the playoffs. Should they miss the playoffs – a catastrophic result for a team that now has meteoric expectations – the team could opt to send that pick to Ottawa and their 2020 first-rounder to Buffalo if they so choose. If not, and the Sharks make the playoffs as expected, the Senators will land that 2020 first-round pick.
Ottawa will still have an early pick from San Jose in June though, perhaps even earlier than expected. The condition on that pick is that it is the highest of the second-round picks owned by the Sharks: their own and the Florida Panthers’, which ironically was part of the return from the Sharks’ flip of former Ottawa forward Mike Hoffman earlier this year. Florida is expected to improve this season, but playing in the Atlantic Division with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Toronto Maple Leafs means the Panthers face an uphill battle to make the playoffs and could easily end up with a draft slot in the first half of the second round. Whereas, the Sharks should by all accounts be a playoff team and more in the coming season.
Speaking of Hoffman, the Senators learned from that experience with Sharks GM Doug Wilson. As Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston notes, Ottawa threw in what may as well be a “Mike Hoffman Clause”. After San Jose traded for Hoffman only to trade him hours later to one of the Senators’ division rivals, GM Pierre Dorion added a conditional future first-round pick if Karlsson is traded back to the Eastern Conference this season. The pick must be exchanged by 2022 at the latest.
Finally, the Sharks sent a 2021 second-round pick to the Senators that carries two conditions. The pick itself is conditional upon San Jose re-signing Karlsson, whose current contract expires at the end of the season. If the Sharks both appear in the Stanley Cup Final this year and extend Karlsson, that pick becomes a first-rounder. In summary, at worst the Senators will receive a second-rounder in 2019 and the Sharks’ first-rounder in 2020 and at best they receive three first-round picks between now and 2022 and potentially a first-round and early second-round pick next year.
- One condition that is already looking good for the Senators is the one that hinges on Karlsson re-signing in San Jose. Although there has been no word from the star defenseman’s camp on his future or thoughts on a contract extension, Wilson already has the future in mind. Although the relatively underwhelming return for a player of Karlsson’s caliber reflects the risk of just one year remaining on his salary, Wilson made the deal with hopes of keeping him around for much longer. Wilson told the gathered media this afternoon that “It’s a long-term approach and we think Erik fits for now and for a long time.” While Karlsson has been clear that he wants to be the highest paid defenseman in the NHL and that would be best served on the open market, the Sharks have the salary cap composition moving forward to meet his contract demands. If the season goes according to plan and the Sharks win or come close to winning the Stanley Cup, with Karlsson playing a key role for what on paper looks like the best defense in the league, he could be tempted to skip free agency and re-sign in San Jose.
- Although the Karlsson trade was between just two teams, there is no way to truly evaluate the reverberations of this trade without discussing the Colorado Avalanche. The Senators have changed the tone of their public relations approach following this trade, being clear that they have entered a rebuild. However, the fact remains that the Senators don’t own their first-round pick next season. That selection belongs to the Avs as part of the Matt Duchene trade. With Karlsson’s departure, the team that many pegged to be the worst in the league has now lost their best player and have an even better chance of finishing the season in 31st place. This would also give them the best odds in the NHL Draft Lottery and the best odds of drafting projected franchise center Jack Hughes. However, that fate belongs to Colorado, who now stand a very high chance of seeing an already lopsided return for Duchene reach its maximum value. The 2018-19 Senators season will now likely matter more to Avalanche fans than it does to their own. To make matters worse, publicly committing to a rebuild could mean that Duchene, an impending unrestricted free agent, doesn’t even last the season on the Ottawa roster.
Monster return for a player one year from free agency…they better re-sign him otherwise this will be an ugly trade.
Are you high? the potential draft picks are whatever but of the players they gave up none of them are top 4 players. at best they get a second line prospect and third line centre and maybe 5/6 d man for arguably the best d man in the league when healthy.
Three potential first round picks is a lot more significant than “whatever”
@theeterps…you hit the nail right on the head
every player has the potential to be Wayne Gretzky if you want to play that card.
let’s be honest, if the sharks suck do we really expect them to go “well we are losing our first this year and our first next year so let’s trade karlsson to the eastern conference and lose another”. That’s naive.
plus the sens conditions are based on making a team stronger but actually have them be worse than last year. That’s some really smart logic there.
Epic failure on the Sens part in their handling the draft pick compensation to the Avs and not just giving up this years 1st. That trade went from bad to absolutely horrible.
They are really high on Tkachuk. Also the draft lottery is usuall unforgiving to the bottom 3 teams. No guarantees they would win the lottery
yes but they lost this year with the second worst record in the league. assuming they finish last, they couldn’t fall any further than where they were.
plus if you knew you were rebuilding and trading karlsson and had traded hoffman, why in the world would you not take the chance you win next year’s lottery. this front office says one thing but acts completely differently.
I’d agree with that. If they knew they’d be trading Karlsson and Hoffman from the crap team they had last year, odds are pretty good they’ll have a worse record this year. Dorion has really made a mess of this team and he needs to be fired before it gets worse.
won’t because he’s just Eugenes puppet. but yes they claim they knew in Feb they were trading karlsson and rebuilding.
1. so why was he not dealt prior to this years draft.
2. why was trading Hoffman out of the division a priority when you plan to suck anyway.
3. why did you keep thos years pick after you fell from 2nd best chance to 4.
all questions that should be raised and clear reasons why thos team is doomed. The rebuild is the right call, but clearly they have buffoons making the decisions. don’t expect the sens to be in the playoffs till minimum 2023.
The key this year is Andy. The goalies were awful last year and if he bounces back, they are going to stay out of last.
maybe but losing your workhorse defenceman and one of your better penalty killers is not going to help on the defensive side.
Ceci in your top blueline pairing doesn’t bode well for Andy’s success this year.
Epic win in hindsight lol if you ever see this
Zach, I’m a little confused by the wording.
I know the Sabres condition was lottery protected. But you state the Sharks could opt to send Ottawa the pick if it SJ missed the playoffs. Could they choose to still send it to Buffalo then too?
Is the condition of the Kane trade the end all be all, or does SJ get to decide then who gets this years and who gets next years?
I know the odds of that happening are low now, just shear curiosity.
And if the Sharks get to chose, can Buffalo or Ottawa offer SJ something to choose them?
no the 1st buffalo gets is lottery protected. so basically if SJ makes the playoffs, it’s buffalos pick. if they don’t, it’s not lottery protected for Ottawa.
Thanks. Like I mentioned, his wording in the article got me
Balcers is a pretty good prospect. He has the chance to be good. DeMelo isn’t a bad piece either. He’s a serviceable d-man. I’m a little surprised that the Sens didn’t get a defenseman prospect in the deal. I though they’d get a d prospect & a forward prospect.
balcers before lsst season was barely on anyones radar. one ahl season and hes now a good prospect? and demelo likely was theor 6th dman this year st best. he might be 3 or 4 in Ottawa but that shouldn’t mean he’s worth Erik Karlsson.
I still can’t figure out how Ottawa could end up with three first round picks in any scenario. It seems like SJ trading Karlsson back to the east and SJ extending Karlsson and making the final are mutually exclusive.
I guess it’s possible SJ could trade Karlsson at the deadline, somehow make the final without him, then reacquire him and extend him before end of June, but c’mon!
It a fair Trade as long as he re-signs
I think it is ridiculous that a team can dictate where a player is traded after they have parted with him. The Sharks travel to Ottawa December 1. Do the Senators feel they should be compensated if Karlsson plays against them in that game?