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More On Erik Karlsson Trade: Pick Conditions, Extension, Colorado

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Perhaps the biggest move of the off-season was completed earlier today, when Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Erik Karlsson was traded by the Ottawa Senators to the San Jose Sharks. The return: two-way NHL forward Chris Tierney, rookie forward Rudolfs Balcers, collegiate center and 2017 first-round pick Josh Norris, young depth defenseman Dylan DeMelo, and four draft picks. While the Senators don’t know for sure how the likes of Norris and Balcers will pan out, the players acquired in this deal are somewhat identifiable assets with ascertainable ceilings. The picks carry far more potential; however they also each carry conditions. The earliest possible pick chronologically would be a 2019 first-round pick. The Sharks owe the Buffalo Sabres their first round pick in the next NHL Draft as a condition for re-signing winger Evander Kane, but with the additional condition that they make the playoffs. Should they miss the playoffs – a catastrophic result for a team that now has meteoric expectations – the team could opt to send that pick to Ottawa and their 2020 first-rounder to Buffalo if they so choose. If not, and the Sharks make the playoffs as expected, the Senators will land that 2020 first-round pick.

Ottawa will still have an early pick from San Jose in June though, perhaps even earlier than expected. The condition on that pick is that it is the highest of the second-round picks owned by the Sharks: their own and the Florida Panthers’, which ironically was part of the return from the Sharks’ flip of former Ottawa forward Mike Hoffman earlier this year. Florida is expected to improve this season, but playing in the Atlantic Division with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Toronto Maple Leafs means the Panthers face an uphill battle to make the playoffs and could easily end up with a draft slot in the first half of the second round. Whereas, the Sharks should by all accounts be a playoff team and more in the coming season.

Speaking of Hoffman, the Senators learned from that experience with Sharks GM Doug Wilson. As Sportsnet’s  Chris Johnston notes, Ottawa threw in what may as well be a “Mike Hoffman Clause”. After San Jose traded for Hoffman only to trade him hours later to one of the Senators’ division rivals, GM Pierre Dorion added a conditional future first-round pick if Karlsson is traded back to the Eastern Conference this season. The pick must be exchanged by 2022 at the latest.

Finally, the Sharks sent a 2021 second-round pick to the Senators that carries two conditions. The pick itself is conditional upon San Jose re-signing Karlsson, whose current contract expires at the end of the season. If the Sharks both appear in the Stanley Cup Final this year and extend Karlsson, that pick becomes a first-rounder. In summary, at worst the Senators will receive a second-rounder in 2019 and the Sharks’ first-rounder in 2020 and at best they receive three first-round picks between now and 2022 and potentially a first-round and early second-round pick next year.

  • One condition that is already looking good for the Senators is the one that hinges on Karlsson re-signing in San Jose. Although there has been no word from the star defenseman’s camp on his future or thoughts on a contract extension, Wilson already has the future in mind. Although the relatively underwhelming return for a player of Karlsson’s caliber reflects the risk of just one year remaining on his salary, Wilson made the deal with hopes of keeping him around for much longer. Wilson told the gathered media this afternoon that “It’s a long-term approach and we think Erik fits for now and for a long time.” While Karlsson has been clear that he wants to be the highest paid defenseman in the NHL and that would be best served on the open market, the Sharks have the salary cap composition moving forward to meet his contract demands. If the season goes according to plan and the Sharks win or come close to winning the Stanley Cup, with Karlsson playing a key role for what on paper looks like the best defense in the league, he could be tempted to skip free agency and re-sign in San Jose.
  • Although the Karlsson trade was between just two teams, there is no way to truly evaluate the reverberations of this trade without discussing the Colorado Avalanche. The Senators have changed the tone of their public relations approach following this trade, being clear that they have entered a rebuild. However, the fact remains that the Senators don’t own their first-round pick next season. That selection belongs to the Avs as part of the Matt Duchene trade. With Karlsson’s departure, the team that many pegged to be the worst in the league has now lost their best player and have an even better chance of finishing the season in 31st place. This would also give them the best odds in the NHL Draft Lottery and the best odds of drafting projected franchise center Jack Hughes. However, that fate belongs to Colorado, who now stand a very high chance of seeing an already lopsided return for Duchene reach its maximum value. The 2018-19 Senators season will now likely matter more to Avalanche fans than it does to their own. To make matters worse, publicly committing to a rebuild could mean that Duchene, an impending unrestricted free agent, doesn’t even last the season on the Ottawa roster.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: San Jose Sharks

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

San Jose Sharks

Current Cap Hit: $75,119,584 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Dylan Gambrell (one year, $925K)
F Timo Meier (one year, $894K)
F Maxim Letunov (one year, $833K)
F Kevin Labanc (one year, $718K)

Potential Bonuses

Meier: $850K
Gambrell: $425K
Labanc: $183K

Total: $1.46MM

The team has gotten great play from their youth in the last couple of years as several players have taken that next step and become regular contributors to the Sharks’ lineup. Meier may be one of the best as the 21-year-old broke out with a 21-goal season last year. The ninth-overall pick in the 2015 draft looks ready to continue a top-six role and perhaps become a key contributor there for many more years. Meier is also playing for a big payday, so if he can take that next step and develop into a 30-goal winger, he would be heading in the right direction.

Gambrell only managed to appear in three games for the playoff-bound Sharks after he signed out of the University of Denver. The 22-year-old center is likely to force his way into a forward role in the bottom-six after he posted three straight 40-point seasons in college. Labanc, who had struggled with consistency in previous years with San Jose, finally broke into a full-time role with San Jose and produced 11 goals and 40 points. He could be primed for an even bigger year, just in time as his entry-level deal will run out.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Joe Pavelski ($6MM, UFA)
F Joe Thornton ($5MM, UFA)
F Joonas Donskoi ($1.9MM, UFA)
F Marcus Sorensen ($700K, UFA)
F Barclay Goodrow ($650K, RFA)
D Joakim Ryan ($650K, RFA)
D Tim Heed ($650K, UFA)

Much of the Sharks success in the next few years will come down to the play of Thornton and Pavelski, two players that have helped carry the team during their years of success. Both players are on their final year of their deal. Thornton signed a one-year deal and only time will tell whether he will continue that career at age 39. Despite suffering a torn MCL in January, he still posted solid numbers, scoring 13 goals and 36 points in 47 games. His days of posting 80 points are likely over, but if he can prove he can still produce, he could be back for several more one-year deals. Pavelski is another matter. The 34-year-old is starting to decline, but likely wants to ink one last long-term deal. While it makes sense that both sides will eventually come to an agreement, much is depending on the success that Pavelski has this season as well.

Donskoi shows improvement as well, posting a career-high 14 goals last season. His play improved to the point that he got some playing time on the first line as he generates shots as the team attempted 53.73 percent of five-on-five shots, while the team shot just 49 percent without him on the ice.Read more

San Jose Sharks Sign Dylan DeMelo To Two-Year Deal

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5:25: The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz reports it’s actually a two-year deal. The Associated Press’ Stephen Whyno adds that it’s two years for $1.8MM with a $900K AAV.

4:48: The San Jose Sharks have signed defenseman Dylan DeMelo to a one-year, $900K deal to stay with the Sharks after the team did not offer him a qualifying offer two weeks ago, according to TVA’s Renaud Lavoie. It is a one-way deal.

“Dylan proved last season that he’s ready to be a full time NHL player and really blossomed towards the end of the year and into the playoffs,” said San Jose general manager Doug Wilson. “His skating ability and strong play in both ends make him a valuable part of our blue line. He’s extremely popular with his teammates and we’re excited to have him back with our team.”

The Sharks surprised a few when they opted not to offer a qualifying offer to the 25-year-old blueliner, making him an unrestricted free agent. He showed promise this past year when he played in a career-high 63 games and more than doubled his points total on the season when he tallied 20 assists. He was a regular in the team’s 10 playoff games as well. Regardless, his playing time actually dropped as he averaged just 14:12 of ATOI this season playing on the team’s third defensive pairing. He will likely battle Tim Heed for the final defensive spot in the rotation. However, The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz suggests this could be the end for Heed as the team may opt to trade him as he will be an unrestricted free agent in the 2019-20 season.

When San Jose chose not to offer DeMelo a qualifying offer, it was believed the team didn’t want to pay him the $735K that the offer was worth. By not qualifying him and making him an unrestricted free agent, the Sharks could sign him for less, but instead offered him more in the end. With the new contract in place, San Jose has less than $8MM in salary cap space to make more deals. The team still has one remaining restricted free agent in forward Chris Tierney.

Poll: Biggest Surprise Among Non-Qualified Free Agents?

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When the deadline to issue qualifying offers to restricted free agents comes and goes each year, there are always a few surprises on the list of those who did not receive an offer. For both those players and teams across the league, it can often be a shock that those players are suddenly unrestricted free agents able to sign with whoever they like. Oftentimes, not receiving a qualifying offer does not automatically mean that the player and his team are through. Already this year, defensemen Derrick Pouliot, Ryan Murphy, and Joe Morrow and forwards Riley Sheahan and Phil Di Giuseppe were not tendered an offer, but soon after signed with their respective squads. Yet, this year has also left more notable names than usual to be scooped up by another team come July 1st.

Robin Lehner, the 26-year-old starting goaltender for the Buffalo Sabres, was one of the earliest known players to not be qualified. Whenever a starter hits the open market it can draw attention, but it’s much more surprising when that starter is both young and experienced. Lehner has seen regular NHL action for the past five years, some as a backup or “1B” with the Ottawa Senators and others as the “1A” for Buffalo. Granted, Lehner has had his fair share of difficulties, both staying healthy and performing when he is on the ice, but it came as surprise that the rebuilding Sabres were so willing to move on from their young keeper. In each of his first two seasons in Buffalo, Lehner posted a save percentage of .920 or better and a majority of his appearances were quality starts. Only this season did those numbers drop off, but apparently that was enough for Buffalo to cut him loose. With Chad Johnson also a free agent, the Sabres head into the off-season lacking any true NHL-caliber goalies on the roster.

Anthony Duclair, just 22 and a former 20-goal scorer, was another surprise that many did not see coming. In his sophomore season in the NHL in 2015-16, the 20-year-old Duclair played in 81 games for the Arizona Coyotes and registered 44 points, good enough for fourth on the team. The young winger even garnered Calder Trophy votes. However, last season his play fell off substantially and this year was only marginally better, prompting a mid-season trade to the Chicago Blackhawks. Many opined that a change of scenery would be good for Duclair, who has shown great talent but needs to put it all together on a more consistent basis. Yet, Chicago gave the experiment 23 games before deciding to move on. A team with major cap problems who is always in need of affordable scoring let a young goal-scorer with years left of team control remaining walk in free agency after less than half a season.

Tobias Rieder, a 25-year-old two-way forward, found himself in a similar situation. Rieder was traded to the Los Angeles Kings ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline and played well in his limited role down the stretch for the Kings. However, it wasn’t enough as Rieder was curiously non-qualified after just 20 regular season games in L.A. Before that, the well-rounded forward had played a major role in the forward corps of the Arizona Coyotes. Rieder has recorded more than 20 points in each of his four NHL seasons and has been a double-digit scorer in each year as well. The young German winger plays a smart, physical style and has an innate ability to crash the net and light the lamp. At 25, he still has room to grow and has 20-goal potential in the right situation. The Kings passed up a chance to take a longer look at what Rieder can do and, of course, have scoring winger as their biggest need this summer.

Dylan DeMelo, the 25-year-old defenseman most recently of the San Jose Sharks, is a hard one to understand as well. DeMelo seemingly did everything he was asked of in San Jose, but found himself a free agent anyway. DeMelo had worked to carve out a role for himself with the Sharks in his first two seasons with the team, but in 2017-18 seemed to have found his place. The young defender skated in 63 games and set a new career high in points by a wide margin with 20. While DeMelo is not an offensive juggernaut by any means, he is solid defensively and was a nice complement on the blue line to the many other talented defenders in San Jose. Even if the Sharks were worried about committing too much money to defense or wanted to give some more time to other even younger options, it is hard to imagine that they couldn’t have found a taker for DeMelo on the trade market.

What do you think? Who is the biggest surprise among the RFA’s that did not receive qualifying offers this year and now find themselves looking for a new team this summer as a UFA?

Mobile users, click here to vote.

San Jose Sharks Could Look Very Similar Next Season

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Many have felt for some time now that the San Jose Sharks could be a team to watch in the upcoming off-season. It’s not often that a team can have the depth and talent of a contender with almost all of their key players locked up and also have an immense amount of cap space, but that is the exact situation that the Sharks are facing this summer. Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture, Brent Burns, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic are all elite players under contract, while reliable pieces like Mikkel Boedker, Justin Braun, and Brenden Dillon have term remaining as well. Yet, the Sharks will still enter the off-season with nearly $15MM in cap space and few holes to fill. For that reason, some have speculated that John Tavares or John Carlson could be headed for San Jose or that the team could load up on other second-tier top free agents.

However, the Sharks are actually somewhat limited in what they can do this summer. A side effect of having so many players locked up is that San Jose actually has little flexibility in terms of straightforward roster management on the free agent market. The Sharks have just nine free agents total, unrestricted and restricted, far and away the fewest in the league as most teams generally have about twenty. Entering the off-season, they will already have 38 of their 50 maximum contracts already in place for next season. Assuming that key restricted free agents like Tomas Hertl, Chris Tierney, and Dylan DeMelo return, that number is already up to 41. It is almost fortunate that top prospects Josh Norris, Scott Reedy, and Mario Ferraro all chose to return to their college teams or that number would be even higher.

Regardless, the Sharks will be left with less than ten slots to add new players unless they start to trade away or buyout existing contracts. If long-time leader and fan favorite Joe Thornton re-signs, there is one less. If deadline addition Evander Kane, who has fit in very well in San Jose, decides to stay put, there’s another one. If the Sharks land a player worth immediate ice time at #21 in the first round of the NHL Draft, that’s yet another spot filled up. No team wants to enter the season with so few contract slots that their hands are tied when the opportunity to make a trade to improve the roster comes around. San Jose also doesn’t want to sign too many multi-year deals with players like Couture, Pavelski, Timo Meier, and Joakim Ryan in need of extensions next season as well.

As such, the Sharks actually seem likely to make only one or two free agent additions this summer – as they did last summer – unless major trades open up some more space in the organization. Could one of those additions be a Tavares or a Carlson? Sure, but if those players choose to go elsewhere, San Jose instead seems far likely to stick with what they have and go into next season with flexibility. Don’t expect the drastically different Sharks roster that some have predicted – it may only lead to a letdown of expectations this summer.

San Jose Sharks Have Looked Into Erik Karlsson

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This is not a match many would have seen coming, but TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the San Jose Sharks are among the teams that have had talks with the Ottawa Senators about all-world defenseman Erik Karlsson. The rumors are growing that Karlsson could be moved ahead of Monday’s trade deadline or, at least, this off-season. Could the Sharks be a dark horse destination?

In a way, it makes sense. Ever since it was revealed that Senators GM Pierre Dorion was seeking a team to take the contract of Bobby Ryan – $7.25MM over four more years – as part of any deal for Eriksson, it narrowed the field considerably of who could possibly even afford to acquire such players, without bringing in a third team. One such team that is a contender and could afford to bring in both Karlsson and Ryan are the Sharks, who will have over $18MM in salary cap space entering the off-season. LeBrun also notes that it is not out of the ordinary for Sharks GM Doug Wilson to inquire into every available player. LeBrun calls San Jose “big-game hunters”, citing their trades for Joe Thornton and Brent Burns over the years and their push to sign Steven Stamkos two years ago. The Sharks have also been mentioned as a possible destination for John Tavares, should he decide not to re-sign with the New York Islanders.

However, one has to wonder if this rumor is more fiction than fact. While the Sharks may have the cap space and the big splash history, the fit doesn’t make much sense. The reason the team has had interest in Stamkos and Tavares is because they need another major piece up front, especially with 38-year-old Thornton unlikely to return. There is no similar concern on the blue line. Burns is fresh off a Norris Trophy last season and right up there with Karlsson as one of the best defenseman in the league. He’s also signed for seven more years to the tune of $56MM. Marc-Edouard Vlasic is one of the league’s top defensive rearguards and begins his own eight-year, $56MM extension next season. Justin Braun and Brenden Dillon are both in their primes and signed for two more years at reasonable rates, while youngsters Dylan DeMelo and Joakim Ryan have taken a step forward this season. Even the system is well-stocked, with promising blue liners like Jeremy Roy, currently in the AHL, and Mario Ferraro of UMass. The Sharks are a top-ten team in goals against and shots against and arguably the best penalty kill unit in the NHL. Defense is the least of their worries, so why then would they sell off multiple high-value assets and take on a terrible contract to acquire, of all things, another defenseman? The answer is they wouldn’t. No one can blame Wilson for checking in, if he did, but more likely this is the Senators exaggerating interest to drive up the price on Karlsson. Don’t expect a top pairing of Norris Trophy winners in San Jose any time soon, unless Vlasic is ever rewarded for his stellar two-way play.

Pacific Notes: Cogliano, Martin, Dell, Bellemare

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The Department of Player Safety announced they will have a hearing today for Anaheim Ducks forward Andrew Cogliano for his illegal check to the head on Los Angeles Kings forward Adrian Kempe during the first period of Saturday night’s game between the two teams.

A possible suspension for the iron man Cogliano in jeopardy. The veteran has not missed a game since 2007 and has played 830 consecutive games, ranking fourth highest in NHL history, according to NHL.com’s Tom Gulitti. Elliotte Friedman added that he is just 134 games behind Doug Jarvis, who played with Montreal, Washington and Hartford between 1975 to 1988.

  • On his Headlines segment on Hockey Night in Canada, Friedman reports the San Jose Sharks are trying to trade defenseman Paul Martin. The veteran defenseman, in his third season with San Jose, was injured in the second game of the season and has only appeared in one game since then on Dec. 7. He played a four-game stretch of games in the AHL on a conditioning loan, but has been called up and has been a healthy scratch since. With the emergence of defensemen Tim Heed and Joakim Ryan on San Jose’s blueline, there is no place for Martin. With defenseman Dylan DeMelo about ready to be activated off of injured reserve, the team hopes to send Martin elsewhere. Martin played 159 games in his first two seasons with the Sharks. The problem is Martin is owed $4.85MM both this year and next, which might make moving the veteran much more difficult than it looks.
  • Paul Gackle of the Mercury News writes that while the Sharks are likely to move goaltender Aaron Dell before he hits unrestricted free agency this summer, the team cannot consider moving their backup goaltender until the last possible moment as the team finds itself fighting for a playoff spot. The Sharks are currently one point out of a playoff spot in a highly competitive race. “We need great goaltending in the second half,” head coach Peter DeBoer said. Due to the recent struggles of starter Martin Jones, the team doesn’t want to lose Dell too quickly in case Martin, who has struggled since the beginning of December, fails to bounce back. Gackle adds that in a perfect world, the team would try to send Dell off as soon as possible to get a fourth-line center or a wing.
  • The Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Steve Carp writes the Vegas Golden Knights avoided a possible injury Saturday in their game against Edmonton when forward Pierre-Eduoard Bellemare took a puck to the face off a shot from defenseman Darnell Nurse. The veteran tough-guy took three stitches and only missed one shift.

Pacific Notes: Shore, Lewis, Shipachyov, DeMelo, Boeser

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A change of coaches in Los Angeles has turned two defensive-first players under former coach Darryl Sutter into new scoring options under new head coach John Stevens. Nick Shore and Trevor Lewis have been showing off some of their offensive skills so far this season, which including a highlight reel pass and shoot goal from Shore to Lewis in Thursday’s victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The shift to Stevens’ offensive focused system was picked up quickly by the two forwards, according to Curtis Zupke of the Los Angeles Times. While the 25-year-old Shore only has one goal and two assists so far in 10 games, it’s still an improvement on last year’s six goals and 17 points that he had in 70 games. As for Lewis, the long-time King has never had more than 25 points in a season in all his years, but he might break that number this year as he already has four goals and three assists in 10 games. Both were at one time in their minor league careers considered to have some offensive talent and they feel they can show more.

“I think we’ve really put a focus on scoring more and offensive zone play,” Lewis said. “Obviously the new system we’re playing, I think starting off with Shoresy and [Kyle Clifford], we grasped it right away. I think that helps and it helps create more.”

  • With Vegas Golden Knights’ Vadim Shipachyov filing voluntary retirement paperwork rather than having his contract terminated, Sportsnet’s Eric Engels tweets that Vegas will still retain Shipachyov’s NHL rights until the veteran turns 35 years of age. Many believe, however, that the 30-year-old center has no interest in returning to the NHL.
  • Staying with the Golden Knights, the team picked up their ninth win of the season today, tying the 1980-81 expansion Winnipeg Jets, according to the Vegas Golden Knights. The team is just one win away from tying the inaugural Ottawa Senators.
  • Paul Gackle of The Mercury News writes that with the injury to veteran defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic, San Jose Sharks defenseman Dylan DeMelo will be given the opportunity to prove he belongs. After playing in the first two games of the season, the 24-year-old defenseman lost his job to Tim Heed and Joakim Ryan and has been a healthy scratch for the last 10 games. Now, the prospect who had already played 70 games with San Jose before the season even started, gets a second chance to prove he belongs.
  • Steve Ewen of the Vancouver Sun writes that the Vancouver Canucks have been working on their power play and have now moved rookie Brock Boeser to the left of the face circle on their first team in hopes to take advantage of his release. The move is supposed to unleash the talents of the highly-touted prospect who has two goals and seven assists so far this year in nine games.

Pacific Notes: DeMelo, Kings Injuries, Bieksa

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Sharks defenseman Dylan DeMelo came into the season with the expectation that he’d get some more playing time after the team lost David Schlemko in the Expansion Draft.  However, that hasn’t been the case as he has played in just two games so far this season and is set to be a healthy scratch for the tenth straight game tonight having been surpassed on the depth chart by call-ups Tim Heed and Joakim Ryan.

Despite the lack of playing time, DeMelo told Curtis Pashelka of the Mercury News that he still wants to remain with the Sharks: “I want to be here, plain and simple. I want to be here. I know the team, I know the guys here. I’ve worked hard since I was 18 to gain equity in this organization. For me, it’s not even in my mind to go anywhere else. This is where I want to be and I really want to make it work here.”

This is the second straight season where DeMelo has basically been the Sharks’ full-time seventh defender which has largely been dictated by being eligible for waivers.  With Paul Martin getting closer to returning to action, the 24-year-old may soon find playing time even harder to come by.

Elsewhere in the Pacific:

  • Kings head coach John Stevens told Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider that wingers Marian Gaborik and Kyle Clifford are progressing well from their injuries. The team is hopeful that Gaborik will be able to start participating in full practices in the next little while.  However, Clifford, despite being listed as week-to-week with his upper-body issue, is still not close to returning to the lineup.  Still with the Kings, first-round pick Gabriel Vilardi skated in full gear for the first time today since sustaining a back injury over the summer, notes Helene Elliott of the LA Times (Twitter link).
  • Ducks defenseman Kevin Bieksa could be available to return to the lineup as soon as Friday, head coach Randy Carlyle noted to Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register. The veteran rearguard is set to miss his fourth straight game due to a hand injury against Toronto.  Anaheim has been dealing with injuries on the back end all season; they’ve been without at least two of their regular defenders in every game so far.

The Best Fits For Matt Duchene

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Despite the tumultuous off-season for Matt Duchene and the Colorado Avalanche, GM Joe Sakic fully expects him to show up to training camp. At least, that’s what he told BSN Denver’s Adrian Dater. “He’s under contract and I expect him to be here” Sakic said, “Not everybody always comes to camp early. It’s not for me to (say), but I assume on the 14th, he’ll be here.” Sakic is referring to Duchene being one of only two Avs players under contract not to participate in captain’s practice last week. Holdouts may be rare in the NHL, but Duchene’s words and actions this summer have painted a pretty clear picture of a player who would like to leave Colorado.

If Duchene has reached his wit’s end with the trade rumors that have persisted since late 2016 and truly has no intention of suiting up for the Avalanche again, Sakic has just a few days left to trade him before this begins to enter holdout territory. The perceived problem all along is that Sakic has not dropped the asking price that has long been considered a young top-four defenseman, a first round pick, and one or two more young roster players or prospects. Not only do few (read: any) NHL teams have a young top-four blue liner to spare, but it’s hard to imagine anyone giving up such a package for Duchene, who has just two seasons remaining on his contract and is coming off a down 2016-17 season. Duchene had scored 55 or more points in five of his seven NHL seasons entering last year – and easily would have made it six had the the 2012-13 lockout-shorten seasoned been extended – yet, he ended up with only 41 points and an egregious -34 rating last season; a low point for both he and the Avalanche franchise.

Logic would seem to indicate that, holdout or not, Sakic has to continue listening to offers for Duchene and needs to lower an unreasonable asking price. TSN recently released their list  of the top nine NHL trade candidates this season, with Duchene obviously at the top. They list the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders, Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, and Pittsburgh Penguins as the mostly likely destinations for Duchene. The Carolina Hurricanes and San Jose Sharks have also been in the rumor mix this summer.

Right away, a few of those options can have their odds discounted. Having just traded away Travis Hamonic and traded for Jordan Eberle, the New York Islanders and their estimated $3MM in cap space likely lack the capacity and the desire to pony up for Duchene at this point. The Isles are still deep on defense, but with Thomas Hickey and Dennis Seidenberg approaching free agency next year, trading yet another young defenseman like Calvin de Haan, Adam Pelech or Ryan Pulock could put the team in hole. Without one of those three, it is hard to see New York making a suitable offer. The defending two-time Cup champs are in a similar situation. While many Pens fans would love to see the embarrassment of riches of Duchene as the third line center behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh too lacks the cap space, currently about $3.25MM, and the pieces to get the job done. That is, unless Sakic is keen on Olli Maatta or the Penguins offer up Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, or an overwhelming offer of picks and prospects including Derrick Pouliot and enough salary to offset Duchene. It’s a series of unlikely scenarios. Additionally, the Montreal Canadiens lack anything remotely close to a young top four defenseman. Duchene would be a great fit for the Habs, but they simply don’t have the pieces.

The Hurricanes and Bruins certainly have the pieces to acquire Duchene, but it seems unlikely that either will be the team to finally do it. Boston was in talks with Colorado last year, but balked at the ask of a package including Charlie McAvoy or Brandon Carlo and wouldn’t be willing to move Torey Krug either. If the price drops, the B’s have talented young defenders like Jakob Zboril, Jeremy Lauzon, Ryan Lindgren, and 2017 first rounder Uhro Vaakanainen waiting in the wings, but even if that was enough, the Bruins’ quiet off-season has indicated that they would like to move forward with their own young players this season. Carolina, on the other hand, is a Duchene-caliber player away from being a true contender and would love to add someone with his ability. However, GM Ron Francis has made it clear that he does not want to trade any of his defensemen. That hasn’t stopped TSN for listing “a Carolina defenseman” as one of their top trade candidates, but as of now there is no reason to think any of Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, or Noah Hanifin are going anywhere. Like Boston, Carolina still has solid pieces if the price drops, such as Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean, but another thought has been whispered this summer that may take Carolina out of the Duchene race altogether. Since acquiring Trevor van Riemsdyk from the Vegas Golden Knights back in June, a player who by all accounts they didn’t really need, many have speculated that Carolina is looking to make a run at 2018 premiere free agent James van Riemsdyk, to bring in the scoring power forward that they desperately desire.

The Blue Jackets and Sharks would be ideal landing spots for Duchene, but both teams would need to get creative with their offers. Both squads have a need for a scoring forward, the cap space to take him on and plenty of talented defensemen, but what they would be willing up on the blue line is not exactly what Colorado desires. There is no way that Columbus includes Zach Werenski or Seth Jones in a deal, but could be open to trading David Savard or Ryan Murray. However, each have a caveat. Savard, while a solid top-four talent, has had durability issues and difficulty with consistent production over the past couple of years. While he would be a great addition to any defense, that may not be what Sakic is looking to get back. Murray, while injury prone, is a highly-skilled young rearguard, but, amazingly, the 24-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. Any deal involving Murray would first have to include a long-term extension with the league’s worst team. Columbus’ best chance of getting Duchene likely involves a package with top defensive prospect Gabriel Carlsson and a young roster player like Josh Anderson or Oliver Bjorkstrand. San Jose also has a few untouchables on defense, namely superstars Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Colorado also wouldn’t be interested in veterans Paul Martin and Justin Braun. That leaves Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo as the top options. While both have shown top-four potential, they have largely played shutdown roles in their young careers and bring little offensive upside. Like Savard, one would think that Sakic has a little more in mind for the Duchene return than stay-at-home defenders like Dillon and DeMelo. If the Sharks package versatile puck-moving D-prospect Jeremy Roy with either though, then talks could really get started. A package that starts like that and ends with a first-round pick and one of San Jose’s many young forwards could be enough to seal the deal.

Yet, the top candidate to bring in Duchene is likely the reigning Western Conference champs. No, the Predators are not moving any of Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, or Mattias Ekholm, but the trick up their sleeve is top prospect Dante Fabbro. A junior teammate of Colorado top prospect Tyson Jost, Fabbro is considered one of the best prospects in hockey and should step into a top four role immediately when he leaves Boston University, much like Charlie McAvoy, who Sakic already targeted in Boston. Fabbro is not just a top-four defenseman, but a potential future #1 or at least a great option to pair with Cale Makar down the road. Sakic would be hard-pressed to find more upside up for grabs than Fabbro, but the Predators are set long-term on the blue line and desperately need to recoup the scoring lost in the Expansion Draft with the selection of James Neal. Fabbro, plus a young forward like Colton Sissons, Frederick Gaudreau, or Pontus Aberg, plus a first rounder and another pick or prospect, and Duchene could surely be on his way to Nashville.

Only time will tell where Duchene ends up, but the best case scenario for all parties is for that destination to not be Denver, Colorado for much longer. Sakic must and will eventually lower his asking price and someone will meet those demands. Could it be Nashville, Columbus, or San Jose? Definitely. Could it be Boston or Carolina? The Islanders or the Penguins? Possibly. Someone totally off the board? Of course. For such a talked-about topic, there is still so much uncertainty surrounding the situation. The next step will be to see if Duchene shows up to camp on Thursday. That decision could have a resounding effect on the trade process.

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