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P.K. Subban

Central Notes: Subban, Josi, Ellis, Steen, Fabbri

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Proving that defense is the key to a Stanley Cup Finals run, the NHL Network released its list of top 20 defensemen in the NHL and the Nashville Predators were stocked full of them. They had the most blueliners on the list, including P.K. Subban (#6), Roman Josi (#7) and Ryan Ellis (#19).

Subban, coming off his first year with the Predators after being traded from Montreal, had a solid season even though his numbers dropped from his previous three years with the Canadiens. Subban finished with 10 goals and 30 assists for the year, but made the all-star team and proved to be a pest to every team’s top scorers.

Josi’s season was also down from previous years, but his numbers also stood out with 12 goals and 37 assists, giving him three straight years with 49 points or more. Ellis leaped into the spotlight this year as he took his game to another level this year with a career high in goals with 16. He also had 11 power play points, three game-winning goals and led the team with 137 blocked shots.

Of course, Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson was first on the list, but only a couple other teams had more than one player on the top-20 list. With the addition of Kevin Shattenkirk (#15), the New York Rangers had two defensemen on the list with Ryan McDonagh at #17. The Calgary Flames also boasted two blueliners in the top 20, Dougie Hamilton (#16) and Mark Giordano (#18).

  • In his final column, the St. Louis Post Dispatch’s Jim Rutherford writes that while the talk is that Alex Steen has regressed over the past couple of years, he believes that the 33-year-old wing has been cast in the wrong role. He believes that Steen’s 33-goal season in 2013-14 was an anomaly and he should not be considered as a 30-goal scorer. If looked at from a 20-goal scoring point of view, Steen’s numbers (33 goals in the last two seasons) make more sense.
  • Rutherford in the same piece adds that he does not believe any of the Blues top prospects, Klim Kostin, Jordan Kyrou or Tage Thompson, have much of a chance of breaking with the Blues after training camp. He said Kostin is still recovering from an injury and just moved to the U.S. a couple of months ago. Kyrou is ticketed to go back to his junior team, while Thompson struggled adjusting to the AHL.
  • Rutherford adds that Robby Fabbri is expected to be ready for training camp after tearing his ACL. He believes he will start the season off as the team’s center, but if the team is not scoring enough, he could easily see Fabbri forced to move back to the wing position.

Winnipeg Might Have Contract Issues With Trouba Again

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Less than a year ago, the Winnipeg Jets dealt with dragout negotiations with restricted free agent Jacob Trouba. The young blueliner and his agent Kurt Overhardt attempted to force the Jets’ hand, requesting a trade and holding out. The team finally managed to get the former ninth-overall pick in 2012 to agree to a two-year bridge deal worth $6MM. Once signed, Trouba withdrew his trade request and everything seemed fine. The 23-year-old had career highs in assists and points, finishing the season with eight goals and 25 assists for 33 points, but he played in 21 fewer games than the year before.

With one year remaining on his deal signed a year ago, however, no extension was agreed to yet this offseason and James O’Brien of NBC Sports writes that the team could have similar problems with Trouba coming up in the future. With that restricted status preventing him from getting the contract that he really wanted and forcing him to sign a team-friendly deal, the scribe writes that Trouba and his agent may force the Jets’ hands this time around with either a high-paying extension or forcing a trade elsewhere.

Many short-bridge, team-friendly deals (especially messy contract disputes) have later forced teams to pay up big-time. Although Trouba will remain an RFA in a year, O’Brien compares these negotiations to that of other players who were later traded, including P.K. Subban (formerly of Montreal), Ryan O’Reilly (formerly of Colorado), Ryan Johansen (formerly of Columbus) and Kyle Turris (formerly of Arizona). Several of those players were Overhardt clients, who is known to be aggressive.

Could that mean that Trouba could find himself on the trade wire at the trade deadline this year? O’Brien suggests that while he may not be a top defenseman yet, he could command more than Seth Jones money ($5.4MM AAV) on his next contract and the young defenseman has another year to prove his worth on the ice. Either Winnipeg will have to pay up or move him to a team that will.

A Quiet 2017 Off-Season

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By the time August rolls around each year, it seems like the off-season is dragging on. The July 1st free agent frenzy is long behind us and it’s been weeks since the last major signing. Fans are struggling to get their hockey fill and counting the days until the puck drops on preseason hockey. In 2017, fans have all the more reason to be sick of the off-season. When compared with the summer of 2016, this off-season has simply been boring. It was expected to be as such, but no one could have predicted just how quiet this summer could be.

As of today, August 6th, 2017, there have only been two unrestricted free agents signed to contracts worth more than $6MM per year: Kevin Shattenkirk to the New York Rangers (as predicted) and Alexander Radulov to the Dallas Stars. In contrast, there were four such deals signed on July 1st, 2016 alone. Drop that mark down to contracts worth more than $4MM annually, and you get uninspiring names this year like Evgeni Dadonov, Dmitry Kulikov, Nick Bonino, Karl Alzner, Martin Hanzal, and Steve Mason added to the list; hardly a superstar among them. 2016 saw high-profile players like Milan Lucic, David Backes, Loui Eriksson, Kyle Okposo, and Andrew Ladd all find new homes. Those signings came on the heels of the P.K. Subban – Shea Weber and Taylor Hall – Adam Larsson trades as well. The best swaps 2017 has to offer so far are Travis Hamonic or Marcus Johansson being dealt for draft picks. There have simply been a lack of franchise-altering moves made this summer.

Then you have the timeline of when deals got done. By August last year, the best unsigned free agents were Antoine Vermette, Jiri Hudler, and Jhonas Enroth. The year before, Cody Franson and David Schlemko highlighted the August market. In both cases, NHL teams got their deals done in July, filling the month with exciting signing news. This year? Not so much. Legendary players like Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla, and Shane Doan remain available, alongside other able-bodied contributors like Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, and Daniel Winnik. That’s in addition to Franson and Hudler as well. Teams are simply waiting around on this market for reasons unknown. Could it end up as an exciting run of signing in August? Maybe, but don’t count on it.

The weak 2017 free agent market coupled with the challenge of preparing for June’s Expansion Draft has simply resulted in one of quietest off-seasons in recent memory. Several teams still have needs and spots to fill and signings and trades remain possible, but at this point the summer is a lost cause. Time to look forward to next season and even next summer when we *hope* to see the likes of John Tavares, Rick Nash, Evander Kane, James Neal, James van Riemsdyk, Paul Stastny, Mikko Koivu, Cam Atkinson, Jonathan Marchessault, Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Mike Green, Jack Johnson, Calvin de Haan, and Antti Raanta all hit the open market. Hopefully that list is enough excitement to get you through the rest of this one.

Predators To Carry Eight Defenseman In 2017-18

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When the Nashville Predators acquired former Montreal Canadiens defenseman Alexei Emelin at the NHL Draft from the Vegas Golden Knights, who had just selected him in the Expansion Draft days earlier, it was clear that the team would have a logjam on the blue line entering 2017-18. The roster already boasts a top four that can rival any in the league in Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm, and adding yet another prominent name to the mix meant another regular for the Western Conference champs could be pushed out.

Instead, GM David Poile told Adam Vignan of The Tennessean that the Predators will carry eight defenseman, at least to start the year. With Josi, Subban, Ellis, Ekholm, and Emelin locked into regular roles – and making up only a modest $22MM of cap space – the final spot in the starting six will belong to one of Yannick Weber, Matt Irwin, or Anthony Bitetto. Weber and Irwin were the team’s bottom pair for much of the 2016-17 season and each signed an extension during the year, while the younger Bitetto skated in 29 games and helped to make up for the loss of Subban while he was sidelined. There’s no clear choice between the three, but by carrying the entire trio, Poile and coach Peter Laviolette have the flexibility to mix and match until they find the best fit.

Making this decision easier are the cap hits for Weber, Irwin, and Bitetto. Despite being regular contributors to a team that nearly won the Stanley Cup, Weber and Irwin are both journeyman veterans who have had up-and-down careers and thus settled for one-year extensions worth the league minimum of $650K. Bitetto, who had only just completed his first real NHL season in 2016, signed a two-year, 1.225MM contract, which will pay him $612.5K in 2017-18, even less than Weber and Irwin. Thus, the entire trio will cost Nashville under $2MM, making the decision to keep a fourth pair all the more simple. How everything shakes out on the Predators’ blue line remains to be seen, but their eight-man group will surely be the envy of most teams in the NHL this season.

Early Expansion Protection News: Capitals, Kings, Flames, Predators, And More

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The 2017 NHL Expansion Draft is an exciting process. If you’re too riled up to wait until the lists are officially submitted in the morning, you’re in luck. As could be expected, information leaks are flooding in on who was and wasn’t protected by their teams ahead of the deadline this afternoon. This list will be updated all night long as more news comes in:

  • One not so obvious choice has been made in Nashville. Adam Vingan of The Tennessean answered a question on the minds of many, reporting that the Predators did in fact protect forward Calle Jarnkrok. With the rest of the eight-skater list all but set in stone with goalie Pekka Rinne, defensemen Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm, and star forwards Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson, the final forward spot came down to Jarnkrok, signed long-term, or James Neal, an elite scorer with just one year remaining on his contract. It seems that Neal will be open for selection, alongside names like Colton Sissons, Colin Wilson, and Craig Smith. Vignan adds that no deal has been struck between Vegas and the Predators to protect any of those players, with Nashville especially liking to retain Neal and Sissons.
  • Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that, interestingly enough, young Detroit Red Wings defenseman Xavier Ouellet was not protected by his team. This is the first real surprise of the expansion process and the first protection news that doesn’t match up with PHR’s Expansion Primer projections. The 23-year-old skated in 66 games this season for Detroit, third most among defenseman, and his 12 points tied that of top-pair man Danny DeKeyser. Yet, Ouellett will not join DeKeyser and Mike Green in protection, instead beaten out by another teammate. GM Ken Holland, who has gotten the reputation of perhaps being too loyal, possibly chose aging veteran Niklas Kronwall over Ouellet. Hopefully that doesn’t come back to bite the rebuilding Red Wings.
  • Another name confirmed to be unprotected is young Vancouver Canucks center Brendan Gaunce. Vancouver sports anchor Rick Dhaliwal was told that that Gaunce, a 2012 first-round pick, did not make the protection list for the Canucks, expected to be a 7/3 format, meaning that the team saw him as outside the top seven forwards on the team. The 23-year-old two-way specialist has upside, but after registering just five points in 57 games last season, no one will blame Vancouver for that choice.

Nashville’s Ryan Ellis, Questionable For Game Six, Will Play

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UPDATE (6/11): Despite concerns over his health and a lack of any information at all leading up to the game, Ryan Ellis will indeed play in Game Six in Nashville. Not only will he play, but Ellis is expected to start the game and skate with pair mate Roman Josi. Ellis skated alone earlier this morning, but skipped the Predators’ voluntary team skate this afternoon, but was out on the ice for warm-ups looking ready to go. It’s doubtful that Ellis will be playing at full strength, but with the Stanley Cup on the line, Nashville wouldn’t want anyone else taking his place.

6/10: The Nashville Predators face playoff elimination for the first time in 2017 when they host the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game Six of the Stanley Cup final tomorrow night. Thursday night’s 6-0 Game Five blowout put the Predators’ Stanley Cup hopes in doubt, after miraculously sweeping the Chicago Blackhawks and defeating the St. Louis Blues and Anaheim Ducks each in six games as the #8 seed out west. Now, they face a do or die scenario with the franchise’s first title on the line.

Unfortunately, they may have to play the most important game of the season (and in team history to date) without talented defenseman Ryan Ellis. While his absence has not been confirmed, the team has been tight-lipped about his availability over the past few days. Ellis sustained an undisclosed injury in Game Five that caused him to leave the game, missing most of the second and all of the third periods. Coach Peter Laviolette nor any other Nashville representative has commented on the nature and severity of Ellis’ injury to this point, but he did not skate at the Predator’s optional practice today. “For what it’s worth”, TSN’s Darren Dreger spotted Ellis leaving the Nashville locker room following Game Five and did not notice any obvious ailment. As of now, that is the only piece of evidence available about Ellis’ status heading into game day tomorrow.

Should Ellis miss the game, the Predators would be dealt a major blow. No team in the NHL operates through their blue line to the extent that Nashville does and losing one of their “big four” at this point in the season could be disastrous. Ellis most often skates alongside Roman Josi, who would have skate alongside Yannick Weber as his right-side partner and the pairing of P.K. Subban and Mattias Ekholm would have the pressure of being a true first pair rather than Nashville’s 1A-1B dynamic. The Predators would also have to bring a cold defenseman into the mix, as all six starters have played in each of the team’s 21 playoff games so far. Anthony Bitetto would likely get the call to man the bottom pair with Matt Irwin, and did skate in 29 games this season, but hasn’t played since April 8th.

More than anything, the Predators would simply miss Ellis’ production should he be sidelined by injury. The quick-skating 26-year-old scored 16 goals and added 22 assists in 71 regular season games in 2016-17, but has been even more effective in the postseason. Through 21 playoff games, Ellis has five goals and eight assists for 13 points, behind only Josi and Filip Forsberg. Ellis has been playing especially confident on the power play this postseason, and the Predators need that clutch factor if they want to capitalize on any Penguin mistakes. Hopefully, what could be the final game of the season or at least the second-to-last match-up of a highly entertaining postseason, will not be cheapened by a key piece missing out due to injury. Stay tuned for any updates on Ellis ahead of the 7:00 pm CT puck drop tomorrow night.

Nashville And The Win-Win Trade

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In these playoffs, there are quite a few players who are making their former teams look silly for ever moving on from them. Phil Kessel is one such example, Kyle Turris is another. There are also skaters who have been fantastic for their teams but the sight of whom doesn’t instill hatred in former team’s fans. Arizona faithful surely grimace every time Turris touches the pucks and drives up ice, but James Neal is still loved and adored by Pittsburgh fans. The primary reason being that the Penguins aren’t regretful. Neal was involved in a very important and team-altering trade that ended up benefited the Predators as much as it did the Penguins.

Rewind the clock  to the 2014 Draft. The Penguins have just been eliminated for the 5th straight postseason in disappointing fashion. The aging Jim Rutherford is brought in to right a ship that looks destined to take on more water. The Predators had completely missed the playoffs, tallying only 38 wins and relying upon a totally inept and anemic offense. Shea Weber had led the team in points on D and they had recently lost Ryan Suter to free agency, and after Hornqvist, Craig Smith, and Mike Fisher, there was practically nothing to push the pace offensively. Carter Hutton had to take the crease in the wake of Pekka Rinne having injury trouble and poor performance. Both teams needed a desperate shake up, and it wouldn’t come painlessly for either. GM David Poile spent the time with Rutherford to hammer out a deal that contained a fair bit of risk on both sides.

The ultimate deal resulted in the 61-point getting, former 40-goal scoring James Neal traded to Nashville for their leading scorer in Patrick Hornqvist, Nick Spaling, and a 2nd-round pick. Nashville lost two solid players on a defensive oriented team in hopes of shifting focus to a more offensive game. Pittsburgh isolated net-front presence and physicality as pieces they were lacking come playoff time. Both teams ended up reveling in the results of this gambit, but it is the sort of deal we see little of in today’s NHL – a win-win trade.

A recent example of an attempted high-risk win-win trade would be Shea Weber for P.K. Subban. One could make the case that GM Marc Bergevin was following a valid needs-based brand of logic, but for many reasons the move was short-sighted for the Canadiens. Montreal fans can claim hindsight, but Weber was always going to be due for decline and was arguably already lesser in value. Without delving further into that particular transaction, Nashville again made a prudent (but difficult) decision to move their captain, which paid dividends. Subban will be an integral part of their franchise for years.

Many teams are overly rigid in sticking to their core when it is obviously in need of change. Nashville not only shifted their core in a few short years, but adapted on the fly to a changing game. Poile acquired the necessary personnel to go deeper into the playoffs in an exceptionally talented Central division, and all GMs would be wise to look to his example. The blueprint for a win-win trade is to isolate what your team desperately needs, who can fill that need, and being willing to part with important players to acquire your man. Winning the value comparison on paper isn’t what should truly matter to GMs, Taking risks to make weaknesses strengths will never be a safe or easy move, but it is the sort of mentality that can win a franchise a Stanley Cup. This offseason, perhaps there will be more moves of this ilk.

Snapshots: Botterill, Subban, Colorado

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The Pittsburgh Penguins will decide their Stanley Cup playoff fate tonight against the Washington Capitals, and John Vogl of the Buffalo News believes the Sabres’ future may be along for the ride. Vogl writes that the hiring announcement of Jason Botterill, associate General Manager of the Penguins and leading candidate to take over as GM of the Sabres was likely delayed due to the ongoing series. The Sabres haven’t interviewed anyone since their second meeting with Botterill, and need to get someone in place with enough time to prepare for the expansion and entry drafts.

Though it was previously reported that Jeff Crisp, the Sabres head scout would handle the entry draft this season, it’s obviously important for the incoming GM to be involved in the operation. Botterill has a background in scouting, and will have been kept abreast of the incoming draft class during his Pittsburgh tenure. Whether the Penguins move on or not, Vogl expects the decision to come down before the beginning of the next series, perhaps even as early as Thursday. On Friday, owner Terry Pegula has a press conference scheduled to introduce Brandon Beane, the new GM of the Buffalo Bills.

  • P.K. Subban has been fined $2,000 for embellishment after being assessed a penalty on May 2nd. It was the second citation he had received from the league, following one given on January 22nd. Subban was unable to serve the penalty as he was being treated in the Nashville dressing room for an apparent injury, but it isn’t the first time he’s been hit with a fine for diving. In 2015, he received two fines from the league for a combined three embellishment citations. Fines for diving escalate on each occasion, capping at a $5,000 penalty for the player and head coach should a player be cited eight times in a single season.
  • Adrian Dater of BSN Denver reports that the Colorado Eagles are working to become a future AHL affiliate of the Avalanche. The Eagles are currently the team’s ECHL affiliate, but with some shuffling coming in the AHL due to Vegas entering the league they will try to gain standing in the next few years. According to Dater, the Eagles have plans to expand their current ~5,000-seat arena to try and accommodate the increased attendance that would come with a promotion to the AHL. This is the latest in a long line of teams that have worked to get their affiliates geographically closer to them, in order to move players back and forth quickly. It can also obviously provide fans that want to see the next generation of stars for their club before they graduate to the NHL, and the ticket prices that come with it.

Afternoon Notes: Canadiens, Alzner, Stalberg

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The Globe and Mail and TSN both contemplate what the future might hold for the vanquished Montreal Canadiens, following a disappointing first-round exit at the hands of the New York Rangers Saturday night. Marc Bergevin could conceivably be on the hot seat in spite of his team’s Atlantic division title, but the firing of former coach Michel Therrien likely extended his tenure. The P.K. Subban trade is quite the easy target for criticism, although the squad’s defensive stats took a large leap upward since Shea Weber’s acquisition. Even Carey Price appears not to be immune from fan criticism, though it hardly seems Price could have done much more to assist his floundering offense. Max Pacioretty is sure to draw ire as well, as his 0 goals and 1 assist through 6 games was incredibly underwhelming. The team has an awful lot of contracts coming off the books, and the organizational vision will now be more important then ever. Impending UFAs include Alexander Radulov, Dwight King, Brian Flynn, Steve Ott, and Andrei Markov. Assuming Radulov re-signs, there is still a glaring need for another potent offensive weapon to assist Pacioretty. With Tomas Plekanec having only one year remaining on his deal, and Alex Galchenyuk constantly receiving demotion, strength down the middle is an issue. A top-flight center has to be at the top of the wish list for a squad that struggled so mightily to find consistent offense. Whether they can actually acquire one via trade (or some other means) remains to be seen.

  • Washington defenseman Karl Alzner will miss his fourth straight game as his team faces off against Toronto in Game 6, although he did skate with the team. Alzner sustained an upper body injury prior to Game 3, and further details are unknown. Replacement Nate Schmidt has performed admirably in his absence, although Alzner’s defensive presence and ability to eat minutes is difficult to replace. Alzner is not particularly physically dominant, but he is adept at keeping scoring chances limited and to the outside. Holtby will need to be sharp in his absence with a desperate, offensively talented Toronto team looking to fire away this evening.
  • Ottawa defenseman Chris Wideman will be replaced tonight by Fredrik Claesson. Wideman has been barely noticeable in this series, but had tallid a goal and an assist from the backend. During the season, Claesson’s Corsi numbers were slightly better than Wideman’s, while Wideman had been a little more involved offensively. Ottawa’s injured left winger Viktor Stalberg may be able to return tonight, as he is a game-time decision. The big bodied winger is known for his blazing speed and penalty killing prowess. As a veteran with 48 playoff games under his belt, Stalberg would be a welcome return to bolster Ottawa’s already formidable forward depth. It is undetermined who would sit out in his place.

Snapshots: Subban, Roussel, Rust

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Bon retour P.K.! That’s what the Bell Centre’s video board read as the crowd jumped to their feet so salute a former star returning last night. P.K. Subban made his return to Montreal as a member of the Nashville Predators and received quite the ovation from Canadiens fans, standing and cheering him on throughout his video tribute as tears rolled down the defenseman’s face. Arpon Basu of NHL.com writes that those tears are all we saw from the former Norris winner all night, as the Predators fell 2-1 on a last second goal from Paul Byron.

At ESPN, the insiders—including Craig Custance, Scott Burnside and Pierre LeBrun—take a look at the short and long term ramifications of the Subban-Weber trade 60 games in. Weber is signed for another nine seasons in Montreal, while Subban is only under contract through 2021-22.

  • The hits just keep on coming for the Dallas Stars, who lost Antoine Roussel last night to injury and likely for the year. Mike Heika of SportsDay reports that head coach Lindy Ruff expects Roussel to be “a while; in all likelihood the rest of the year.” Though the Stars aren’t really competing for a playoff spot any longer, Roussel was having a career year. He was just three points shy of setting a career-high in points, and would likely have broken his goal and assist marks as well with 20 games remaining.
  • Dave Molinari of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has some good news for Penguins fans, as he spotted Bryan Rust skating before practice. A playoff hero last season, Rust has been a solid contributor to the Penguins run this year. With 25 points in 50 games, he’s giving the team some excellent secondary scoring and is a useful piece up and down the lineup. Molinari also adds that new defenseman Mark Streit will be wearing #32 for the Penguins when he suits up for a game.

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