The Maple Leafs will be without defenseman Brandon Carlo for a good chunk of the season. After telling reporters yesterday that Carlo had a setback in his recovery from a lower-body injury and was meeting a specialist, head coach Craig Berube said today that the righty will need surgery and will be out “an extended period of time” (via David Alter of The Hockey News).
Carlo has already missed seven games due to the injury he sustained against the Kings on Nov. 13. It’s still unclear what play caused it; he didn’t appear to miss a shift. It wouldn’t be shocking if Carlo had been playing through something and aggravated it. The 6’5″ shutdown rearguard has been noticeably less involved in the play than normal this season, averaging a career-low 0.67 hits per game. That’s a 56% decrease from his career average of 1.51.
Physicality and defensive smarts are where Carlo makes his money, and they’re why the Maple Leafs parted ways with a steep package – including Fraser Minten and this year’s first-round pick – to acquire him from the Bruins at last season’s trade deadline. Carlo’s contract situation was a significant factor as to why Toronto paid a premium. Not only was he not a rental – he remains under contract through 2026-27 – but Boston retained 15% of his cap hit to bring it down to $3.485MM for the Leafs. That’s a great price tag for someone Toronto imagined would be consistently deployed as a top-four defender as an anchor for Morgan Rielly.
Unfortunately, the Reilly-Carlo experiment has largely fallen flat. The duo was outscored 10-9 in last year’s postseason. This year, they’re allowing 3.11 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, the most of any Toronto defensive pair. Carlo’s -4.2% relative Corsi share is the third-worst figure of his career. And while he’s not known or relied upon for offense, his two assists through 18 games are also a slightly lower pace than what he usually posts.
With another year left on his contract at an already-reduced cap hit, the struggling Maple Leafs might have looked to flip Carlo as they look to retool their depth on the fly, particularly in the name of improving their defensive structure. Only the Sharks have allowed more shots per game this season than Toronto’s 31.4. With fellow top-four righty Chris Tanev also on the shelf as he rehabs a suspected concussion, keeping him out indefinitely, their depth has been tested.
If the Leafs’ focus is still on getting significantly ahead of the .500 mark for the first time this season and putting themselves back in the playoff conversation, finding a higher-profile stopgap on the right side than recent waiver claim Troy Stecher needs to be a priority – especially if Carlo’s return timeline is now months, not weeks.
Loss of draft picks is gonna kill the Leafs and any window that was already closing is gonna slam shut soon.
the Leafs have an uphill battle to make the playoffs, but the talk of blowing it up as some have said is insane. maybe they move a Domi for anything, maybe they try to rebuild the d by moving Rielly, maybe they finally pull the trigger on a Robertson deal and move on from the the moves of the summer which aren’t working, but even if they don’t get a first, simply being able to move the guys they picked up who aren’t working plus a Domi, jarnkrok, Robertson, etc. at least opens up spots and $$$.
the team hasn’t missed the playoffs in how long? took the cup finalists to 7. they have been injured and simply have underperformed. it happens, but blowing it up is insane. there’s too much $$$ invested in decent talent.
Was just starting to question if the Leafs might actually be sellers at this year’s deadline. I know they’re technically only 4 points out of a playoff spot now but they really seem to be struggling and injuries like this aren’t helping. Marner obviously would have helped but am guessing he’s not second guessing his decision at this point.
What a bum. Gave up Fraser Minten for him! Awful trade!!
Well, this should be the last knife in the coffin. Gotta start the fire sale sooner than later.
Should be able to get a solid return for both McCabe and the Ekman-Larsson given they both have some term left. If they can get something decent for Benoit then fine.
Doubt they’ll be able to move Rielly or Tanev given their contracts.
They are fine in the goaltending department and will need all three of Stolarz, Woll and Hildeby for the time being.
Up front, anyone outside of Tavares, Knies and Cowan should be and must be made available. Including Nylander who should be moved by the deadline. Matthews can be moved this summer. But both must be moved soon.
Certain guys they need to get rid of for whatever return: Domi, Roy, Jarnkrok, Robertson.
Joshua has no fit with this team and was a big mistake with the contract he got. The Macceli trade also makes no sense. As an RFA let him walk and not match his arbitration case which I am sure he will end up.
so a team made up mostly of players who have been to numerous playoffs is complete garbage now and should be blown up?
look I’m all for moving parts that are t fitting or pending FAs, but getting rid of basically everything is insane. this isn’t a bottom 5 TM when healthy. it’s a team that’s. even injured and has struggles sure, but they aren’t garbage.
Fraser Minten AND a 1st round pick!
Damn what a poor decision.
Only Delusional Torontonians “think” Leafs are some Legendary team! Half-A-Century of Futility!! But like Lieberal voters, they keep coming back no matter what Ballard/Teacher’s Union/Stavro/Kilmer/Rogers/MLSE do…it’s ALL the Same= they do NOT need to Win!
someone’s a sad conservative
Huh? Not a Conservative, but ok keep being delusional not recognizing that the Whole Planet doesn’t get how 10 Years of the same party has only turned Canada into a 2nd world country.