What Your Team Is Thankful For: Dallas Stars
With the holiday season in full swing, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for so far this year. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first few months and what could improve as the season rolls on. So far we’ve covered the following teams:
Atlantic: BOS, BUF, DET, FLA, TOR, MTL, OTT
Metropolitan: CAR, CBJ, NJD, NYI, NYR, PHI, PIT, WSH
Central: CHI, COL, MIN, NSH, STL
Pacific: ANA, ARZ, CGY, EDM, LAK, SJS, VAN, VGK
What are the Dallas Stars most thankful for?
The draft lottery.
2016-17 was a huge disappointment for the Stars. After finishing first in the Western Conference and advancing to the second round a year earlier, Dallas got off to a brutal start last season and couldn’t overcome it to sneak their way into the playoffs. Finishing with 79 points and third-last in the West, it cost head coach Lindy Ruff his job and several players their role on the club.
Still, it wasn’t all bad. After the season, the Stars lost Cody Eakin to the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion draft, and couldn’t have been that upset about it. The centerman has put up a better season for Vegas than he had in 2016-17, but is still not the 20-goal, 50-point man many had hoped he would develop into. The fact that the Stars no longer have to worry about the two years at $3.85MM that Eakin is still owed on his current deal is actually probably worth more than having him on the team.
Then came the draft, where Dallas won the right to select third-overall and were able to take home exactly what they were after. Though some casual North American observers may have forgotten about Miro Heiskanen as he continues to develop in Finland, the Stars sure haven’t. Heiskanen is playing excellent in the Finnish Liiga, scoring nine goals and 14 points in 20 games while controlling games from the blueline. He is an absolute prototype when it comes to the new era of NHL defensemen, able to play well at both ends of the rink.
Fans should get a good look at his potential when he skates for Finland at the upcoming World Junior Championships, where he’ll remind everyone why he was taken third-overall. The idea of the Finnish duo of Julius Honka and Heiskanen playing long-term together should have Dallas fans salivating.
Who are the Stars most thankful for?
Benn continues to be one of the greatest stories in the NHL, going from a fifth-round pick out of the BCHL to a legitimate All-World captain and winger. His 30 points lead the Stars again this season, while his possession numbers and all-around play remain high. He’s the type of player every team around the league would be after if there was a chance, but as he starts his new contract extension it looks like he’ll be in Dallas for a long time.
With a $9.5MM cap hit for another seven years, there is definitely some risk involved in Benn’s deal. Who can know what kind of player he’ll be in his mid-thirties, but at this point he’s still the best chance the team has to compete for the Stanley Cup. With Tyler Seguin set to hit free agency in the summer of 2019, it will be interesting if the team decides to keep the dynamic duo together long-term, for what would be a huge chunk of the salary cap.
What would the Stars be even more thankful for?
Healthy and effective goaltending.
The Stars went out and got the starting goaltender they wanted in the offseason, buying out Antti Niemi and bringing in Ben Bishop to handle the load. Unfortunately, Bishop has battled a sore back this season and looked average even when he is in the net. Kari Lehtonen has bounced back from a dreadful 2016-17, but only to about the same level Bishop is playing, which is not good enough.
Bishop and Lehtonen have .908 and .907 save percentages respectively, and the Stars need more than that to get back to being a contender in the league. Especially when you factor in that Ken Hitchcock’s system usually increases save percentages in the first few years, the goaltending simply hasn’t been good enough. There are several issues with this team, but getting Bishop—who signed a six-year, $29.5MM contract with the team—back to playing like the Vezina contender he’s been in the past, could make up for them all.
What should be on the Stars’ Holiday Wish List?
Some more help up front.
Beyond the trio of Benn, Seguin and Alexander Radulov (who’ve been spread out recently to try and spark some more offense) the Stars don’t have enough firepower at forward. Young forward Radek Faksa has done his part, but veterans like Martin Hanzal, Jason Spezza and Antoine Roussel have been almost invisible when in the lineup.
The Stars are still 18-14-3 on the season and within striking distance of the top teams in the Central Division, but to really compete they’ll need a deeper offensive attack. The depth of their forwards pales in comparison to clubs like Nashville, Winnipeg and St. Louis, something that would become even more prominent in a seven-game series.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Snapshots: Tavares, Vegas, Gudbranson
The New York Islanders announced their plan for a brand new arena at the Belmont Park location today, and front and center at the ceremony was none other than John Tavares. The team captain spoke very highly of the decision, something he’s supported since the beginning.
For us as players and our fan base to have somewhere you know it’s written in stone that we’re going to have a home built for the Islanders on Long Island is pretty special.
The Islanders are called the Islanders for a reason. This is really where the team belongs.
Still, Tavares isn’t willing to announce that he’s re-signing with the team now that it has a long-term future ahead of it. In speaking with Arthur Staple of Newsday at the event, he calmly said that while a positive outcome, it’s not “going to change or ultimately make my decision.”
- The Vegas Golden Knights are in an extremely interesting position as they continue their inaugural season, and one that GM George McPhee likely didn’t expect when he selected a team heavy on pending free agents. Though they’re one of the top teams in the league, they might still have to decide whether the long-term future of the club is more important as they head towards the trade deadline, something Gary Lawless of NHL.com discussed in an informal Q&A on Twitter. Lawless explained that though they obviously have assets that could be valuable at the deadline, he doesn’t expect management to break up the core while they’re experiencing so much success, instead pointing at the cap space that Vegas possesses as potential bait. That’s something we’ve discussed about at length in the past, and an obvious avenue for the Golden Knights to add to the future while maintaining the present.
- In Elliotte Friedman’s latest 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet, he speaks about several players who might need a fresh start as we head toward the trade deadline. One of those, Erik Gudbranson, has been rumored available in the past and Friedman believes that he’ll price himself out of the Vancouver Canucks market when he hits free agency after this season. Though Gudbranson certainly doesn’t make the impact that some hoped he would when he went third-overall to the Florida Panthers, he can still be a helpful player for a team with defensive depth issues. The fact that he only makes $3.5MM will make him an affordable piece at the deadline, if a team believes they can get good shutdown minutes from him down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Belmont Park Decision Expected Wednesday Morning
Jim Baumbach of Newsday reports that the decision regarding a potential new home for the New York Islanders at Belmont Park is expected on Wednesday morning. The Islanders are competing with MLS franchise New York City FC for rights to build a new facility in the area.
Fans of the hockey team have been following the story closely, as the future home is expected to be an influencing factor in the decision of John Tavares this summer. Tavares is a pending unrestricted free agent, and has said that he’d wait to see what kind of plan the team had for a new building before making any decision. The 27-year old superstar would be arguably the biggest name ever to hit free agency, and could potentially break Connor McDavid‘s $12.5MM cap hit as the league’s highest-paid player.
A new arena would go a long way for the Islanders, who admitted they don’t have a “Plan B” behind the Belmont proposal. While that demonstrates the confidence they have that the city will award them the site, NYCFC has a strong proposal of their own. When the decision is made, we’ll know more about how the Islanders plan to go about construction, and whether they’ll use the upcoming Janurary deadline to opt out of the current lease at Barclays Center.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Minnesota Wild
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for as the season nears the quarter point of completion. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first month and what could improve as the season rolls on. So far we’ve covered the following teams: ANA, ARZ, BOS, BUF, CGY, CAR, CBJ, COL, DET, EDM, FLA, LAK, NSH, NJD, NYI, NYR, PHI, PIT, SJS, STL, TOR, VAN, VGK and WSH.
What are the Minnesota Wild most thankful for?
A deep prospect pool.
When the Wild approached the expansion draft last year, they were in trouble. They had too many assets that needed protection, and were destined to lose an excellent player. In order to sway the Vegas Golden Knights’ decision in a certain direction, they gave up prized prospect Alex Tuch. Though the team had drafted Tuch in the first round just a few years prior, his upside and potential impact wasn’t seen to be as high as some of their other prospects.
Well, six months later and Tuch is starring alongside Erik Haula (the other player lost in the expansion process) in Vegas, and the Wild are struggling to stay relevant in the playoff picture. Surely they’d like to have Tuch back, but luckily those other high-end prospects still remain.
Though the relationship with Kirill Kaprizov—or lack thereof—makes the Russian a complete wildcard, there are others who should have Minnesota fans excited for the next few years. Joel Eriksson Ek and Luke Kunin have both played roles in the NHL this season, while Jordan Greenway continues to dominate players even older than him in the college ranks. Ivan Lodnia was just signed after a blistering start in Erie, and the team has four picks in the top three rounds this upcoming draft.
Who are the Wild most thankful for?
General managers around the league must be hitting themselves over not pursuing Staal in the summer of 2016. Coming off a horrible season, in which he was traded from the team he’d been drafted by and captained for seven years, Minnesota happily scooped him up on July 1st. Much was said about how Staal might be on the way out of the game, until he immediately found success in Minnesota to the tune of 28 goals and 65 points.
The three-year, $10.5MM contract that he signed was just $1MM more in total than he’d earned in 2015-16 alone. Minnesota got a legitimate number one center, and borderline Hall of Fame candidate for the price of a third or fourth-line player. You can still hear Chuck Fletcher laughing to himself somewhere in St. Paul.
Staal has been everything for the club this year, leading the team in points with 26 through their first 30 games and coming through with one of the best possession seasons of his career. Playing nearly 19 minutes a night and hitting the ice in all circumstances, Staal’s contract is one of the best in the entire league. While now 33 years old, he’ll still be exceptionally valuable in the final year of his deal next season.
What would the Wild be even more thankful for?
Some “puck luck” for Mikko Koivu.
Despite still being an excellent possession player, used in all situations, Koivu can’t seem to get much going offensively this season. Coming off another one of his patented solid-if-not-spectacular seasons with 58 points, he only has 15 in his first 30 games and eight of those are on the powerplay. He’s now been held pointless in his last eight games despite being on the ice for more than 147 minutes, and hasn’t found the back of the net himself since October.
Amazingly, a lot of that has to do with pure bad luck. Koivu is carrying a pathetic 5.1% shooting percentage this season, far below his career average. Though he’s never been a sniper that carries a high percentage, he’s due for some luck going his way at some point. During his 21-game goalless streak he’s fired 58 shots on net without a single one trickling through.
He’s not only used for his offense, but a bounce here or there would be a big help for the Wild as they try to claw their way back into the playoff picture.
What should be on the Wild’s Holiday Wish List?
Another center.
When the Wild lost Haula and let Martin Hanzal walk in free agency, their center depth was tested. Though they brought in Matt Cullen, who has done a fine job for them so far, their unyielding ability to throw an effective center over the boards every single shift has left them. Charlie Coyle can play the position but the team likes him better on the wing, and Kunin isn’t quite ready for a full-time role.
There is the possibility that when Zach Parise eventually returns from injury they’ll move Coyle back to the middle, but an addition would be the best option. It’ll be tough, as the Wild are pressed right up against the cap thanks the the hefty cap hits of Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno, both who’ve been healthy scratches at times this year. That fact may force them to go with what they have right now, but it will be interesting to see if they find a way to get involved as the deadline approaches.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
The Worst Case Scenario In Ottawa
While the result is not yet final, the Ottawa Senators are in the midst tonight of what will likely end as a big loss to the Buffalo Sabres, the only team in the Eastern Conference with a worse record (for now). The team is in free fall, losing four straight games and eleven of their past twelve, not including tonight’s result. At 9-12-7, the Senators hold the third worst record in the NHL and rumors are swirling that no one on the roster is safe.
Back on November 5th, things seemed to be trending upward for Ottawa as GM Pierre Dorion was finally able to swing a trade to bring in coveted center Matt Duchene. In the process, the Senators gave up another legitimate top six center in Kyle Turris, goalie Andrew Hammond, 2016 first-rounder Shane Bowers, a 2019 third-round pick and a conditional 2018 first-round pick. Duchene has just four points and a -11 rating in 14 games with Ottawa so far and it’s already safe to say that the trade hasn’t worked out as planned.
So what’s next? With the Senators struggling, the conditional first-round pick sent to the Avalanche becomes very interesting. The 2018 pick is “top-ten protected”, meaning – as is likely – if Ottawa finished in the bottom third of the league, they retain their first round pick. Colorado would then get the Senators’ 2019 first-rounder. However, there is significant risk associated with that scenario. While the 2017-18 Sens have been underwhelming, there is enough talent on the roster to avoid falling apart entirely. The 2018-19 Senators though are another story. Ottawa just recently requested no-trade lists from ten key players and a fire sale could begin this season. The result could be an even worse squad next season and an even better pick heading to Colorado, perhaps even a top pick like center Jack Hughes or defenseman Bowen Byram.
So what is the worst case scenario in Ottawa? The team continues to struggle this year and is even worse next season, missing out on a potential franchise-altering prospect. After two years of failure, the team loses, via trade or free agency, Duchene, Erik Karlsson, Derick Brassard, and more. It may seem like a stretch, but it is in fact very possible. These are dark days in Ottawa, but the truth is that this could just be the beginning.
Poll: Which Pending UFA Is The Most Underrated?
When people break down the upcoming free agent class, most of the attention instantly goes to players like John Tavares, Joe Thornton, John Carlson, Evander Kane and James Neal. After all, these players are perennial offensive weapons that could be moved in-season if their teams fall out of the playoff picture.
But in every free agent class there are some very effective players who are less well known around the league. Players that will be heavily sought after even though they don’t bring the superstar brand or Stanley Cup history.
In this year’s group, that has such high-profile names available as we approach Christmas, there are also some excellent options in that second tier. Some of those may even be more valuable than the splashy names, especially if they come at a reasonable cost. Who do you think is the most underrated pending UFA? Who’s not talked about enough? We’ve listed some options, but make sure to point out who else you think is being overlooked.
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Contract Totals A Limiting Factor For Minnesota, Toronto
In the NHL, a team is allowed to have 50 Standard Player Contracts signed at any one time. That includes all players on the active roster, in the minor leagues or on long-term injured reserve. Players under the age of 20 who’ve been loaned back to their junior or European clubs are exempt, giving the team some flexibility on signing draft picks during the year.
Teams generally try to leave themselves a few open slots in case an opportunity arises—through waivers, trade or free agency—to add a useful player. Two teams don’t currently have this luxury as CapFriendly points out, as Minnesota and Toronto both have hit the 50-contract cap. They’ve come about it in different ways.
Minnesota was at 49 contracts for much of the season, until they claimed Nate Prosser off waivers from the St. Louis Blues at the end of last month. Prosser’s addition pushed them right up against the cap, likely a contributing factor in their search for a landing spot for Kyle Quincey. They could use the cap space from a Quincey trade—he’s still causing a $225K cap hit while in the minor leagues—but being at the 50-contract mark limits them in other ways.
As referenced above, they can still sign draft picks to entry-level deals, as they did recently with Ivan Lodnia. The bigger issue is that they can’t go after any other players on waivers, or negotiate a trade without sending bodies out the other way. Ridding yourself of contracts isn’t as easy as it sounds. Waiving or assigning players to the minor leagues doesn’t move them off the list, meaning you have to either agree to a mutual termination (very unlikely with the vast majority of players) or trade them away.
Toronto recently filled up in a different way. To start the season, Carl Grundstrom‘s contract didn’t count towards the limit because he was 19 and playing in Sweden. Earlier this month he celebrated his 20th birthday, and became ineligible for the SPC exemption. The fact that Toronto had already traded for Calvin Pickard earlier in the year had brought them closer to the limit, with Grundstrom pushing them right up against it.
The Maple Leafs have been cognizant of this situation in the past, even allowing Dominic Toninato to hit free agency after his college career because they didn’t have a contract slot for him. Toninato signed with the Colorado Avalanche and even made his NHL debut this season. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the team move out a contract before long to recapture some flexibility, though it’s not clear who that would be.
Either way, it’s something to watch out for when the Maple Leafs or Wild are involved in a transaction. The two teams have to carefully navigate their contract limits, or end up missing out on a possible opportunity.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Poll: Which Top Name Would You Rather Spend Free Agent Money On?
John Tavares is still a pending unrestricted free agent. Every team in the NHL is keeping an eye on that situation, eager to know whether free agency will get its biggest star in quite some time (perhaps ever) when the calendar turns to July 1st. Chatter has already begun about the superstar class of 2019, headlined by Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Tyler Seguin, Logan Couture, Jeff Skinner and many, many more. Those discussions won’t stop anytime soon, as there are sure to be at least a few names that aren’t re-signed early.
Still, after some of the initial dreaming dies down teams have to start realistically figuring out if they can afford a superstar at the UFA premium. Not every team can pay Connor McDavid $12.5MM per season, even if he’s worth every penny. That question has been asked recently about Ottawa in particular, as the team has historically needed to keep player salaries relatively low. If Karlsson pushes the very limit of his value, Ottawa might not be able to afford him.
So, let’s try a hypothetical. If the trio of Tavares, Doughty and Karlsson all hit the market at the same time and were commanding around the same money/term, which one would you go after? Where would you want your money tied up? Vote for the player you’d most want to sign, but then also explain in the comments below the answer to another question. Would you rather spend big (big) money on forwards or defense in free agency?
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Ottawa Senators Plummet While Trade Speculation Heats Up
The Ottawa Senators were within a goal of the Stanley Cup Final last season. On the backs of heroic performances by Erik Karlsson and Craig Anderson, a trapping, defensive team pushed the Pittsburgh Penguins to the brink of elimination before bowing out in double overtime of game seven. That had fans of the team excited about this season, and pushing for GM Pierre Dorion to add to a team that was close to the Stanley Cup.
As former NHL executive Frank Provenzano notes for The Athletic though, thinking your team is close to winning it all after one unexpected playoff run can be dangerous. Provenzano is among the first (of what is sure to be many) to suggest what had previously been unthinkable: perhaps it’s time to consider trading Karlsson.
Just a few weeks ago the Senators went out and added Matt Duchene, bringing in a former Olympian who was expected to kick-start their offense. The fact that he had just a year and a half left on his deal (coincidentally the same length as Karlsson) didn’t matter, as they were close enough that he could push them over the edge right away. They needed to move out Kyle Turris (and several other pieces) to do so, but he seemed unlikely to re-sign with the team after this season when he became an unrestricted free agent. The problem there is, as Craig Button screamed into the radio airwaves yesterday on TSN 1050, “they traded a better player for a lesser player.” Button believes Turris is better than Duchene right now, and the early returns would back him up.
Turris has 12 points in 13 games for the Nashville Predators since the deal, while Duchene has just two. The Senators meanwhile have gone 3-8-1 with Duchene in the lineup, including losing seven of their last eight in regulation. That has seen them tumble down in the standings, even as they play in arguably the weakest division in the NHL. As of Thursday, they find themselves ahead of only Buffalo in the Atlantic Division and tied with the Florida Panthers with 24 points. Not good enough for a team that expected to compete.
While the NHL season is far from over, and a rebound from the team is more than just possible, it may be time to start thinking about drastic changes to their core group. As noted above, Karlsson is only signed until the summer of 2019 and has made it clear that he’ll cost a boatload on the open market. Derick Brassard and Mike Hoffman are signed for one and two years respectively after this season, and are both no longer young players with years of improvement ahead of them. Mark Stone, the team’s best forward will hit restricted free agency this summer and should expect a big deal, but it’s not clear how long-term he’ll want to go with the club. Stone will turn 26 before the summer hits, and could get to unrestricted free agency himself with just a one-year deal.
It’s not over for the Senators just yet, but Provenzano’s article won’t be the first written about the possibility of a Karlsson trade. After July 1st hits, and an extension is possible, every passing day will fuel speculation on whether the team should move him before he hits the open market. As one of the most valuable players in the league, it’s not clear who would even have the guts to give up the kind of package Ottawa would need in return. But it’s an interesting possibility if the season continues to progress as it has so far for the Senators.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Erik Karlsson Unwilling To Take Hometown Discount
Erik Karlsson‘s contract doesn’t expire until the end of the 2018-19 season and he isn’t even eligible to sign an extension yet, but when you’re the best defenseman in the NHL, everyone is focused on your future and (potential) availability. So, it’s no surprise that a question of his future was posed at practice Thursday. However, the surprise, at least for many Senators fans, was his answer, as retold by the Ottawa Citizen’s Ken Warren:
“When I go to market, I’m going to get what I’m worth, and it’s going to be no less, no matter where I’m going… That’s the business part of it. That’s the way every player has been treated ever since this league has started, and I think the players have been a little bit on the other side of things when it comes to negotiations. I think it’s time to realize that when we go to the table, it’s business on both parts, not just (owners)… “I like it here, I’m comfortable here, I’ve been here my whole career… but at the end of the day, when it comes down to it, if it’s not the right fit and it’s not going to work out business-wise, then you’re going to have to look elsewhere because that’s what (owners) are going to do, as well.”
Karlsson isn’t incorrect – it is far more frequent in all pro sports to see a star athlete take a hometown discount to stay with a team than it is for a team executive to offer a premium contract to retain such an athlete. Karlsson clearly recognizes that he is one of the best in the game and is deserving of perhaps a record-setting contract, one that should at least erase P.K. Subban‘s $9MM mark as the highest AAV ever handed to a defenseman. A Norris-caliber defenseman hitting the open market at the age of 28 is beyond rare and Karlsson is ready to cash in. However, the big question – and one that could plague the team for the next year plus – is whether the Ottawa Senators will be the club that ponies up for Karlsson’s massive promotion.