Poll: Which Top Name Would You Rather Spend Free Agent Money On?
John Tavares is still a pending unrestricted free agent. Every team in the NHL is keeping an eye on that situation, eager to know whether free agency will get its biggest star in quite some time (perhaps ever) when the calendar turns to July 1st. Chatter has already begun about the superstar class of 2019, headlined by Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Tyler Seguin, Logan Couture, Jeff Skinner and many, many more. Those discussions won’t stop anytime soon, as there are sure to be at least a few names that aren’t re-signed early.
Still, after some of the initial dreaming dies down teams have to start realistically figuring out if they can afford a superstar at the UFA premium. Not every team can pay Connor McDavid $12.5MM per season, even if he’s worth every penny. That question has been asked recently about Ottawa in particular, as the team has historically needed to keep player salaries relatively low. If Karlsson pushes the very limit of his value, Ottawa might not be able to afford him.
So, let’s try a hypothetical. If the trio of Tavares, Doughty and Karlsson all hit the market at the same time and were commanding around the same money/term, which one would you go after? Where would you want your money tied up? Vote for the player you’d most want to sign, but then also explain in the comments below the answer to another question. Would you rather spend big (big) money on forwards or defense in free agency?
Who would you want to sign in free agency?
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John Tavares 41% (369)
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Erik Karlsson 36% (330)
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Drew Doughty 18% (164)
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None of them 5% (44)
Total votes: 907
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Ottawa Senators Plummet While Trade Speculation Heats Up
The Ottawa Senators were within a goal of the Stanley Cup Final last season. On the backs of heroic performances by Erik Karlsson and Craig Anderson, a trapping, defensive team pushed the Pittsburgh Penguins to the brink of elimination before bowing out in double overtime of game seven. That had fans of the team excited about this season, and pushing for GM Pierre Dorion to add to a team that was close to the Stanley Cup.
As former NHL executive Frank Provenzano notes for The Athletic though, thinking your team is close to winning it all after one unexpected playoff run can be dangerous. Provenzano is among the first (of what is sure to be many) to suggest what had previously been unthinkable: perhaps it’s time to consider trading Karlsson.
Just a few weeks ago the Senators went out and added Matt Duchene, bringing in a former Olympian who was expected to kick-start their offense. The fact that he had just a year and a half left on his deal (coincidentally the same length as Karlsson) didn’t matter, as they were close enough that he could push them over the edge right away. They needed to move out Kyle Turris (and several other pieces) to do so, but he seemed unlikely to re-sign with the team after this season when he became an unrestricted free agent. The problem there is, as Craig Button screamed into the radio airwaves yesterday on TSN 1050, “they traded a better player for a lesser player.” Button believes Turris is better than Duchene right now, and the early returns would back him up.
Turris has 12 points in 13 games for the Nashville Predators since the deal, while Duchene has just two. The Senators meanwhile have gone 3-8-1 with Duchene in the lineup, including losing seven of their last eight in regulation. That has seen them tumble down in the standings, even as they play in arguably the weakest division in the NHL. As of Thursday, they find themselves ahead of only Buffalo in the Atlantic Division and tied with the Florida Panthers with 24 points. Not good enough for a team that expected to compete.
While the NHL season is far from over, and a rebound from the team is more than just possible, it may be time to start thinking about drastic changes to their core group. As noted above, Karlsson is only signed until the summer of 2019 and has made it clear that he’ll cost a boatload on the open market. Derick Brassard and Mike Hoffman are signed for one and two years respectively after this season, and are both no longer young players with years of improvement ahead of them. Mark Stone, the team’s best forward will hit restricted free agency this summer and should expect a big deal, but it’s not clear how long-term he’ll want to go with the club. Stone will turn 26 before the summer hits, and could get to unrestricted free agency himself with just a one-year deal.
It’s not over for the Senators just yet, but Provenzano’s article won’t be the first written about the possibility of a Karlsson trade. After July 1st hits, and an extension is possible, every passing day will fuel speculation on whether the team should move him before he hits the open market. As one of the most valuable players in the league, it’s not clear who would even have the guts to give up the kind of package Ottawa would need in return. But it’s an interesting possibility if the season continues to progress as it has so far for the Senators.
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Erik Karlsson Unwilling To Take Hometown Discount
Erik Karlsson‘s contract doesn’t expire until the end of the 2018-19 season and he isn’t even eligible to sign an extension yet, but when you’re the best defenseman in the NHL, everyone is focused on your future and (potential) availability. So, it’s no surprise that a question of his future was posed at practice Thursday. However, the surprise, at least for many Senators fans, was his answer, as retold by the Ottawa Citizen’s Ken Warren:
“When I go to market, I’m going to get what I’m worth, and it’s going to be no less, no matter where I’m going… That’s the business part of it. That’s the way every player has been treated ever since this league has started, and I think the players have been a little bit on the other side of things when it comes to negotiations. I think it’s time to realize that when we go to the table, it’s business on both parts, not just (owners)… “I like it here, I’m comfortable here, I’ve been here my whole career… but at the end of the day, when it comes down to it, if it’s not the right fit and it’s not going to work out business-wise, then you’re going to have to look elsewhere because that’s what (owners) are going to do, as well.”
Karlsson isn’t incorrect – it is far more frequent in all pro sports to see a star athlete take a hometown discount to stay with a team than it is for a team executive to offer a premium contract to retain such an athlete. Karlsson clearly recognizes that he is one of the best in the game and is deserving of perhaps a record-setting contract, one that should at least erase P.K. Subban‘s $9MM mark as the highest AAV ever handed to a defenseman. A Norris-caliber defenseman hitting the open market at the age of 28 is beyond rare and Karlsson is ready to cash in. However, the big question – and one that could plague the team for the next year plus – is whether the Ottawa Senators will be the club that ponies up for Karlsson’s massive promotion.
Snapshots: Paquette, Kane, Malkin
Tampa Bay Lightning forward Cedric Paquette is having a hearing today with the Department of Player Safety regarding his hit from behind on Torey Krug last night. Paquette was assessed a two-minute boarding penalty on the play (along with a roughing minor for his scrap with Frank Vatrano a few seconds later) and could face additional discipline.
From the video, it looks like Paquette had ample time to avoid or minimize the contact after Krug turned his back to him instead of driving through his body and into the boards. Paquette has not been suspended previously by the DoPS, although he was the target of a hit that resulted in Zac Rinaldo being suspended for five games.
- Evander Kane is the big trade target, but Buffalo Sabres GM Jason Botterill hasn’t made up his mind on whether to move him or not. As Botterill told John Vogl of the Buffalo News, the Sabres are ecstatic with how Kane has played this season under new head coach Phil Housley, and could decide to keep him during his successful season. With the Sabres falling out of contention, the only real reasons to keep Kane around would be if you believe you can complete a dramatic comeback in the second half of the season, or have a shot at re-signing him before he bolts in free agency.
- Evgeni Malkin is set to get back into the Pittsburgh Penguins’ lineup after taking a full-contact practice today with his teammates. Malkin hasn’t played since November 18th, but was off to quite the start to the season. With the Penguins still floundering in the middle of the Metropolitan Division, Malkin’s return will be a welcome sight. As Phil Kessel put it to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “whenever you can get one of the best players in the world back in your lineup, it adds to your team.” You’ve got that right, Phil.
Poll: Which Defenseman Is Most Likely To Reach Free Agency In 2019?
When Craig Custance of The Athletic told Drew Doughty about the “Superclass” of defensemen scheduled to become unrestricted free agents in 2019—a group that includes the aformentioned Kings’ defender along with Erik Karlsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan McDonagh and Ryan Ellis among others—all he said was “I didn’t know any of that.”
To be sure, even if Doughty didn’t know about the long list, general managers around the league will have noticed long ago. Obviously, many of these players will be re-signed long before free agency even comes close. Each of them is eligible to sign a contract extension on July 1, 2018 and likely will as soon as they’re able. Others though may take some time with their decision. When you’re talking about contracts that could push eight years and $80MM (or even higher), players often want to know exactly where the team will be when the deal starts.
So which of the those five is most likely to make it to free agency? Each have been core players with their respective teams for many years, but each have different situations surrounding them. Ekman-Larson is in the midst of another disappointing season in the desert, while Ellis has been criminally underpaid for several years. Make sure to explain why in the comments below!
Which defenseman is most likely to make it to free agency in 2019?
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Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ARZ) 39% (258)
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Ryan McDonagh (NYR) 18% (118)
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Drew Doughty (LAK) 18% (117)
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Ryan Ellis (NSH) 13% (82)
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Erik Karlsson (OTT) 12% (80)
Total votes: 655
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Drew Doughty Pondering His Next Contract
If you look early enough, the 2019 unrestricted free agent class looks like it could be historical. Erik Karlsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan Ellis, Tyler Seguin, Jeff Skinner, Joe Pavelski, Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Cam Talbot and many, many more are all set to become UFAs. Obviously the majority of those names will likely be re-signed by their current clubs, and many aren’t likely even thinking about their next contract just yet. One that is however is Drew Doughty, who recently spoke with Craig Custance of The Athletic concerning his upcoming free agency.
Doughty, always unfiltered, speaks about what he thinks negotiations would start at for both him and Karlsson and explains how he’ll try to be in touch with the Ottawa defenseman throughout the process. One specific quote, on where he thinks his salary would sit is extremely telling:
Right now, I guess we’d be gauging off what P.K. [Subban] makes. I think both of us deserve quite a bit more than that.
Subban currently holds the highest cap hit for any defenseman in the league at $9MM, with Brent Burns‘ extension bringing him closest at $8MM next season. The idea that Doughty and Karlsson will command “quite a bit more” than that may be a tough thing for any team (especially an internal-budget team like Ottawa) to swallow, even if it is for a franchise defenseman.
Custance lists the Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings (two lead markets of The Athletic) as potential suitors for Doughty if he does hit free agency, though the defenseman is quick to point out that he loves the Los Angeles organization and is by no means saying he’ll be a free agent when his current contract ends. If he or any of the other franchise players do though, another interesting market to watch for will be the NHL’s newest landscape: Vegas.
We’ve examined the Golden Knights’ salary structure in the past, but it is important to once again note something in particular. Vegas has just four one-way contracts on the books for the 2019-20 season, one of which is David Clarkson who will continue to be on long-term injured reserve. The team has basically all but $10MM of the salary cap—which could be well in excess of $80MM by then—with which to spend the next few seasons, making them a dangerous player in free agency. While other teams are hampered by re-signing their own young players or dealing with the effects of bad contracts from the past, Vegas will have free rein to do what they please in the summer of 2019.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Snapshots: Three Stars, Josefson, Mason
The NHL has released their three stars of the week, and leading the list is Jon Marchessault. The Vegas Golden Knights forward had nine points in three games, helping his team takeover first place in the Pacific Division. The Golden Knights now sit at 15-6-1 this season, and rank third in the entire NHL in goal differential at +15. Marchessault, a 30-goal scorer last season, is once again turning out to be one of the biggest bargains in the entire league. At just $750K this season, he’s primed for quite the raise in free agency at the end of the year.
Sergei Bobrovsky and Alex Ovechkin round out the top three after impressive weeks of their own. Bobrovsky went 3-0 with a .950 save percentage with the Columbus Blue Jackets, while Ovechkin tallied five more goals including a hat trick against the Toronto Maple Leafs with a special guest looking on. Ovechkin, who many said was slowing down last season when he scored “just” 33 goals, is back on top of the NHL leaderboards with 18 this season. With the first goal of the hat trick, Ovechkin passed Mike Bossy for 21st all-time in NHL goal scoring, and has a legitimate shot at breaking 600 this season. He needs just 24 more to 20th member of the 600 club, and won’t turn 33 until next September.
- Jacob Josefson had only returned to the Buffalo Sabres lineup recently, but will be out another four to six weeks according to head coach Phil Housley. Josefson tweaked his ankle and is out until at least Christmas for the struggling Sabres, who are now just one point ahead of the Arizona Coyotes for last in the entire league. Obviously, Josefson isn’t a huge part of their lineup but any injury at this point pushes Buffalo further away from any rebound this season. The team has a dreadful schedule over the next week, playing the Tampa Bay Lightning tomorrow before taking on Pittsburgh in a home-and-home series this weekend.
- Steve Mason was removed from Saturday’s game with an upper-body injury, and today Winnipeg Jets head coach Paul Maurice confirmed the injury was a concussion. Mason had been placed on injured reserve earlier today after a recall of Eric Comrie. Signed in the offseason to a two-year, $8.2MM contract, Mason has provided below-average netminding so far for the Jets and had been all but replaced by Connor Hellebuyck as the starter. It’ll be tough to justify his $4.1MM contract next season if he remains a backup, especially given that Hellebuyck is a restricted free agent and looks primed for a long-term deal. If Mason doesn’t turn his play around after returning from this head injury, he could be an early candidate for a summer buyout. First off, he’ll have to get healthy enough to return.
Vancouver Canucks Earning Trade Deadline Capital
The Vancouver Canucks began their rebuild last season, when at the trade deadline they moved Alexandre Burrows and Jannik Hansen for a pair of interesting prospects. Jonathan Dahlen and Nikolay Goldobin were brought into the organization, to try and go along with other young players like Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser and Olli Juolevi as the next wave of NHL talent. At the draft, they passed on WHL star Cody Glass and British Columbia-native Michael Rasmussen to select Swedish forward Elias Pettersson, who is tearing up the SHL with a league-leading 28 points through 21 games.
In free agency, they added a trio of players in Thomas Vanek, Michael Del Zotto and Sam Gagner that could bridge the gap to that next wave. Now, even as the team finds more immediate success than expected they could find themselves in an enviable position at this year’s deadline. While Gagner hasn’t been as effective as last season, Del Zotto and Vanek are showing their worth. Vanek has 16 points through 24 games, and has shown once again he can help a powerplay anywhere in the league. His eight points with the man advantage trail only Boeser for the Canucks. Del Zotto on the other hand has logged the most ice time on the entire team, averaging more than 22 minutes a night. The smooth-skating defenseman has nine points on the season, and plays in all situations.
Vanek is on just a one-year $2MM deal, while Del Zotto carries just a $3MM cap hit for this year and next. If their play continues at this pace, they’ll both interest several buyers at the deadline if Vancouver chooses to start selling. They’re not the only two. Erik Gudbranson is dealing with an injury but has already been rumored to have several teams interested in him as he heads towards unrestricted free agency. The 25-year old comes with a $3.5MM cap hit, and can add physicality to any lineup. The Sedin twins are also pending UFAs, but seem unlikely to be traded because of their hefty cap hits.
The rest of the blueline could also draw interest from around the league. Both Alex Edler and Chris Tanev have faced injury this year and hold some form of no-trade protection, but would be valuable additions if a team could afford their contracts. Unfortunately the Canucks have already used two of their three retained salary transactions, eating some of Hansen and Roberto Luongo‘s contracts. As the deadline approaches and teams have less space to maneuver, that could prove costly.
Still, Vancouver has positioned themselves in a strong position this season. While Boeser leads the Calder Trophy race so far, and Pettersson lights up the European ranks they could add even more assets this spring. At 11-9-4 this season, it could be a quicker-than-expected rebuild.
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Eastern Notes: Cole, Vrana, Djoos, Lightning
Tight up against the salary cap for the next few years, Josh Yohe of The Athletic (subscription required) answers a number of mailbag questions about the Pittsburgh Penguins present and future. Among the tidbits of information is the scribe’s opinion that the team is likely to allow defenseman Ian Cole to depart via free agency this offseason.
Yohe writes that Cole, who is one of the team’s better defenseman is more likely of all their unrestricted free agents next year to be wearing a different sweater in the 2018-19 season. As Pittsburgh is already loaded with four defensemen making at least $4MM per year next season, Cole would likely be the odd man out for the Penguins, especially since there will likely be many teams offering big money to the blueliner. The 27-year-old has been a solid defender and likely could play a major position on another team’s top-four if given the opportunity.
- NBC Sports Tarik El-Bashir writes that Washington Capitals wing Jakub Vrana, who was a healthy scratch for the first time this year on Thursday, will return to the lineup today against the Minnesota Wild on the Capitals third line. He had just two points (both goals) in his previous 13 games. “I’m putting him back where he was … and I want to see him play really well tonight,” Capitals coach Barry Trotz said.
- El-Bashir adds that Washington Capitals defenseman Christian Djoos, who suffered an upper-body injury Tuesday against the Nashville Predators and missed Thursday’s game against the Colorado Avalanche, did not skate today. “I don’t know exactly when he’s going to skate yet,” Trotz said. “He’s still day-to-day with the trainers. Once they tell me he can skate, he’ll be out there.”
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Roger Mooney of the Tampa Bay Times writes that with the Tampa Bay Lightning off to their best start in team history as they lead the league with a 15-2-2 record and 32 points, the team has a number of players who are also leading the NHL, including Nikita Kucherov, who leads the NHL in goals scored with 17; Steven Stamkos, who leads the league in assists with 25 and points with 35; and goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy leads the NHL in wins with 14.
Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Josh Leivo To One-Year Extension
The Toronto Maple Leafs have signed forward Josh Leivo to a one-year extension worth $925K. Leivo was a candidate for Group VI free agency this summer if he didn’t play in another 34 games with the club this year. We examined his candidacy in a piece earlier this season, and it clearly looked like the team wasn’t ready to give him a full-time role this year. That could chance next season though, as both James van Riemsdyk and Leo Komarov are unrestricted free agents.
Leivo has an intriguing skill profile for the Maple Leafs, as a big-bodied forward that has a good shot and playmaking ability. While some have questioned his skating ability in the past, he provides good value on the powerplay and has historically never complained publicly about his disappointing situation with the Maple Leafs. Since making his debut in the 2013-14 season, Leivo has suited up for just 46 NHL games and no more than 13 in a single season. That’s in spite of the fact that he registered 10 points in that 13-game sample last year, and has performed well at the AHL level. The 86th-overall pick in 2011, Leivo is on the second year of a two-year minimum salary deal he signed in 2016. The $925K doesn’t seem like a lot, but will actually be a hefty raise for the 24-year old.
The question now becomes if this is in preparation for life without van Riemsdyk and/or Komarov, or just to protect an asset they believe is valuable as a 13th forward. There is always the chance that Toronto moves one of the aforementioned wingers to improve their defense corps, which would allow Leivo to jump into the lineup full time. The Maple Leafs need quite a bit of cap room to sign their big three of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner in the near future, meaning players on inexpensive deals like this one will need to be key contributors.
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