As we move into the final month of the season, it has become quite clear which moves from last summer paid off and which ones did not. While long-term effects of summer trades and signings are always part of the picture, it’s interesting to look back and assess the best free-agent signings to see which teams got value for their money and which did not.
Players don’t always succeed immediately with their new teams; sometimes there’s a settling-in period. However, many moves made last summer in free agency have significantly impacted playoff races this year.
For this exercise, we will focus specifically on players who were unrestricted free agents and moved to new teams. This excludes players like Brad Marchand or John Tavares, who re-signed with their respective teams before July 1.
The first player that comes to mind is the Penguins’ top goal scorer, Anthony Mantha, who signed a one-year, $2.5MM contract (plus $2MM in performance bonuses) with the Penguins after missing most of last season with the Flames due to an ACL tear. Many believed that Mantha would have a chance to improve his free-agent stock in Pittsburgh by playing top-six minutes before cashing in during the summer of 2026.
Last summer, the Penguins seemed like a team that would be selling at the trade deadline, so it made sense that they would give Mantha a one-year deal and then trade him for future assets in February or March. However, that outlook couldn’t have been further from the truth, as Mantha has become a key part of a Pittsburgh team that has surprised the NHL this season and remains competitive in the Eastern Conference. With 30 goals and 28 assists in 75 games, Mantha has provided considerable surplus value to the Penguins and is likely to secure a major contract this summer, particularly among one of the thinnest free-agent fields in the salary cap era.
Last year, much of the talk during free agency was that the goaltending market was incredibly thin, and on paper, it certainly looked that way. But that didn’t stop the Buffalo Sabres from exploring the free agency waters, signing Alex Lyon to a two-year, $3MM contract that has proven to be an absolute steal.
Lyon has split duties with his goalie partner, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and has appeared in 35 games this season, posting a record of 20-9-4 with a 2.69 GAA and a .909 SV%. While those stats are solid, the standout figure in Lyon’s line is his goals saved above expected, which currently sits at 14.8 (according to MoneyPuck). Lyon won’t be winning any awards this year, but considering how much money teams are spending on ineffective goaltending, Lyon has been a real boon for Buffalo.
Sticking with the goalies, another underrated signing that has paid off is Daniel Vladař of the Philadelphia Flyers. The 28-year-old was mainly a backup before this season but has become the Flyers’ starting goaltender, dressing in 45 games while posting a 24-13-7 record, a 2.50 GAA, and a .904 SV%.
Vladař has been excellent value on a two-year deal with a $3.35MM AAV. Not only is Vladař’s save percentage above average, but his goals saved above expected is up to 9.6, suggesting that his underlying numbers indicate a goaltender who has stolen some games for Philadelphia.
A signing that didn’t happen until the fall was forward Jack Roslovic, who again had to accept an under-market one-year deal. Roslovic signed a one-year, $1.5MM contract with the Oilers on Oct. 8 after his second straight unsuccessful free agency run, where he failed to secure a multi-year deal that suited him.
In Edmonton, the 29-year-old has already achieved his second straight 20-goal season and has been a reliable playmaker for the Oilers. Given his consistent production over the past two seasons, it’s unlikely he’s willing to settle for another one-year deal, especially in a tight free agent market.
Moving to the backend, veteran Brent Burns was a free agent for the first time in his career at age 40. Burns signed a one-year deal with the Avalanche that included a potential $4MM in bonuses, of which he will likely earn $3MM this season.
Burns is no longer an elite offensive defenseman, but he has still scored 10 goals and 19 assists in 73 games this year while playing in every game and averaging almost 19 minutes per game. Burns has benefited from playing on a top team and from a high PDO, but for a veteran right-shot defenseman or a bargain one-year deal, he’s worked out as well as the Avs could have hoped for.
Finally, we return to the Penguins and the skillful work of general manager Kyle Dubas accomplished in the early days of free agency last year. Not only did Dubas sign 30-goal scorer Mantha, but he also secured Justin Brazeau with a two-year deal worth just $3MM, as well as defenseman Parker Wotherspoon on a two-year, $2MM deal. The contracts gave Dubas a top-nine forward in Brazeau and a top-pairing defenseman to play alongside Erik Karlsson, all at a total cost of $2.5MM per season for this year and the next.
Dubas and Penguins Director of Player Personnel Wes Clark did excellent work last summer, finding players with lots of potential who hadn’t been given the chance to succeed. By betting on low-risk, high-upside free agents, Dubas effectively accelerated the Penguins’ retooling plans, which seemed unlikely just a year ago, when the team had missed the playoffs for a third consecutive year.
Earlier this season, there was talk that Penguins captain Sidney Crosby should request a trade because he might not make the playoffs again. However, thanks to Dubas’s bargain shopping, the Penguins now seem to be on track for the playoffs and have plenty of cap space this summer to strengthen their already impressive lineup.