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Florida Panthers’ Potential Targets

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The Florida Panthers were expected to do far better this past season than they ultimately did. Not unlike their Floridian rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, many were looking to this franchise to dominate a week Atlantic division. Looking back on a season with a coaching change, losing streaks, an lots of turmoil, how does the team recover and adjust their roster going forward?

Florida’s offensive core as of this moment consists of Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Vincent Trocheck, with Nick Bjugstad, Reilly Smith, and the surprising Jonathan Marchessault feeling content in their roles. Their defensive core is essentially just Aaron Ekblad, with a decent if unremarkable group surrounding him. Keith Yandle has looked adequate but nowhere near worth his $6.35 MM contract, locked in until 2023. Unfortunately, that contract looks like an albatross that is there to stay. Jason Demers was solid if unremarkable, and the group as a whole struggled with consistency. With Thomas Vanek likely to look for a payday elsewhere, a declining Jaromir Jagr, and a brutal internal cap, it bodes questioning whether Florida will be able to compete for a playoff spot next season. Their youngsters performed above offensive expectations, with the notable exception of Huberdeau. Barkov, Trocheck, and Marchessault all broke 50 points. Yet the team still finished 14 points out of the playoffs, giving up .46 more goals than they scored in an average 60 minute game.

Florida needs to spend a moderate amount of money to acquire solid 3rd-line point producers. Minor league callups can fill the gaps on the fourth line to an extent, but rolling with only two viable offensive forward groups is a recipe for disaster in today’s NHL. They absolutely need a game-changer up front to provide run support for the young core. They might also look to bolster their D. Here are some potential targets the Panthers should consider for 2017-18, instead of spending precious dollars on the fading Jagr:

F – Ilya Kovalchuk – UFA/KHL

As mentioned by colleague Holger Stolzenberg, Ilya Kovalchuk is a definite possibility for Florida. They have the cap space to accomodate the sort of money he will be looking for, and they have a talented young group that could easily compete for a playoff run given the right moves. There are few players more dynamic with the puck on their stick than Kovalchuk. His savvy and remarkably consistent point production would be tailor made for the Panthers team in need of a true #1 threat as Barkov continues to progress. Jagr is that no longer, but replacing his insight and experience would be difficult to do. Kovalchuk hits all the checks in terms of need for Florida, and would help launch them back into the playoff conversation single-handedly.

D – Dmitry Kulikov – UFA

Kulikov had an absolutely awful season for the Buffalo Sabres, but he would be a very cheap reclamation project for his old stomping ground. He didn’t exit the Panthers with a good performance, either, posting only 17 points in 2015-16 and a terrible 46.8 Corsi For Percentage. Kulikov had one year remaining with the Sabres at $4.3 MMl, and posted a 5 points and a -26 through 47 games. And yet, he was part of the group that propelled the team into the post-season and a Game 7 that could’ve gone either way. He’s a smooth skating 26 year-old defenseman who moves the puck with a decent offensive hockey IQ. He makes mistakes in his own zone, but he pushed the pace of the game in a way that is difficult to replace. His contract would be dirt-cheap and there is always the possibility he finds his groove back in the Sunshine State.

F – Matt Duchene – Colorado Avalanche

Matt Duchene is another talented player who had a truly down year. Duchene was rumored to be moved for months, but come deadline, GM Joe Sakic didn’t find the pieces he was looking for. In Florida, there is a definite fit if the Panthers are willing to take the risk. They have the defensive pieces the Avalanche would want in return, and Duchene would provide another dynamic offensive force to a struggling offense. Sakic is almost certain to pull the trigger eventually, so the Panthers GM will simply need to be persistent. Duchene can set up plays with the best of them when he is on his game. His speed and infectious energy would also fit in well with the group of youngsters down south.

F – Justin WIlliams – UFA

WIlliams is almost certain to be a top commodity in a weak UFA class. However, his wealth of playoff experience would come in quite handy for this team and hasn’t showed signs of slowing down. He would add an element of grit to the lineup, as well, rounding out their offense. He would be a wonderful mentor for the likes of Barkov, Trochec, and oothers. He can slot up and down the roster and is practically a lock to score at least 20 goals as a 35 year-old. If the Panthers find their way into the first round, a player of his mold would be certainly welcome in close contests. The main obstacle to this getting done is of course the price, which may prove too steep for a team in rebuild, low-cost mode. He also could want term at this stage of his playing career, and that could be a risky proposal if longer than 2 or 3 years.

Potential Buyout Options

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NHL fans are looking ahead to an offseason which will likely see a lot of movement, but will also feature teams tight up against a stagnant cap ceiling. Buyouts are always an option teams will weigh, although certainly an avenue of last resort. Dumping a contract isn’t as simple as taking the player’s salary off the books. They will count as 1/3 or 2/3 of the original cap hit, for twice the remaining years on that contract. So if a 26 year old player has two years remaining at $3 MM, he will cost $1 MM for four years against the team’s cap total. That means a substantial savings of $2 MM, but is a habit GMs will not want to fall into. For players over 26, the 2/3 rule applies, and that same player would count for $2 MM each of the next four seasons. In such a scenario, the savings are rarely worth it. However, teams can be backed into this corner when trade options completely vanish.

For the 2017 offseason, there is an extra component at play – the expansion draft. Players with full No-Movement Clauses must be protected by their team, exposing potentially better, younger, cheaper options to selection by the Vegas Golden Knights. Prior to the expansion draft, on June 15-17th, there will be a buyout window. Consequently, there will most likely be at least one case where a player who otherwise would not have been bought out will be due to a team’s long-term prospects. This certainly isn’t what the NHLPA had hoped for when they agreed to another 20+ players in the league with the expansion of Vegas, but is an unfortunate unforeseen consequence. Here are just some of the players who could be facing the buyout option this summer:

 

Antti Niemi – Dallas Stars

Both Niemi and fellow goalie Kari Lehtonen should be expecting this fate. With Ben Bishop signing a massive six-year contract with Dallas, their time as starters in this league look all but complete. Both are paid an asburd amount of money, but Niemi’s $4.5 MM is the more unpalatable total. His .892 save percentage through 37 games this year was only edged in ineptitude by Michal Neuvirth among tenders who got more than 15 starts. At his pricetag he is virtually unmoveable, and with only one year remaining on his contract, the hit would be worth it for 2 seasons to keep him away from the team.

Kevin Bieksa – Anaheim Ducks

Bieksa might seem an odd inclusion on this list, considering his age, but it should be remembered that he has a No-Movement Clause, meaning he would need to be protected by the Ducks. Needing to also protect Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, and Hampus Lindholm, even under the 8 player protection model, this would likely expose Josh Manson. Considering his play in this post-season, and Bieksa’s complete inability to remain healthy, this is a darkhorse candidate for a last-minute buyout. Bieksa’s Corsi is the worst on the backend for his team and his skating has looked quite problematic of late. The flare of his Vancouver days seems long past and with only one year remaining at $4 MM, he seems an easy target to eliminate.

Scott Hartnell – Columbus Blue Jackets

Hartnell is considered a gutsy character player, a net-front presence, and a veteran leader. However, he has seen his production shift from being that of a decent offensive threat (28 G, 32 A in 2014-15) to an average third liner (13 goals, 24 A in 2016-17). His problems run deeper, though, as his brand of physical hockey has taken its toll on his play. No longer quite the intimidating wrecking-ball of his Philadelphia days, Hartnell is not as effective on the forecheck as he once was. The reason he is included on this list, however, is because Columbus has a lot of young, promising players they will wish to protect in the expansion draft, and Hartnell has a No-Movement Clause. At 34 years old and in a quickly diminishing role, it will be difficult for GM Jarmo Kekalainen to save a space for Hartnell. With toughness adequately filled by hard-nosed forwards in Brandon Dubinsky, Boone Jenner, Nick Foligno, and Brandon Saad, he seems even more superfluous. Assuming Dubinsky (NMC), Brandon Saad, Jenner, Foligno (NMC), Cam Atkinson, and Matt Calvert are protected, Hartnell’s inclusion would sacrifice the 24 year-old William Karlsson. That’s a difficult concession for the Jackets to make, even if the youngster took a step back offensively this season. If they would opt to buy out Hartnell’s contract at $4.75 MM, it would mean $3.16 MM in dead space for 4 more seasons, a hefty pill to swallow.

 
There are certain to be other candidates for buyouts as well, but these are three that could easily find themselves looking for a new contract come June 18th.

Finding Room For Oshie And Alzner

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T.J. Oshie has pretty clearly expressed his desire to remain in Washington, culminating in his most recent statement this Friday where he stated “I’m a Capital, and I feel that’s where I’ll be.” The difficulty for GM Brian McClellan obviously lies in fitting him under the team’s cap ceiling while affording other free agents, notably including RFA Evgeny Kuznetsov. Looking forward to next season, and barring any major trades, the Capitals will likely need to let go of the clutch Justin Williams in light of his impressive outing these playoffs. He will easily command $3 MM or more, and things are tight enough as is. Assuming the Capitals lose a defenseman in expansion, perhaps Dmitry Orlov, and the seemingly inevitable departure of Kevin Shattenkirk, their D-corps will look very different. Because of these losses, they will be pressed to find room for their shutdown defender Karl Alzner, also impending UFA.

If Oshie prices himself out, Alzner is a fantastic consolation prize. The ideal scenario for the team would be re-signing both, but contracts would absolutely need to be moved out. A realistic possibility the Capitals could consider is moving one of Brooks Orpik or Matt Niskanen. Both were signed in the summer of 2014, and both contracts would be difficult to move. Niskanen is undoubtedly the better hockey player at this juncture, but he also is under contract for another 4 seasons. At 30 years old, this is not too great of a risk, but his pricetag of $5.75 MM may prove too steep for a multitude of teams. He also has a limited No-Trade Clause, which would complicate any possible transaction.

The more preferable scenario would be to unload Orpik, but the 36 year old does not look long for the league, especially in this post-season. Although he is only under contract for 2 more seasons, his $5.5 MM would be quite the expense for many teams. Perhaps Vegas or a relatively young bottom dwelling team (Colorado, Buffalo) would be interested in his veteran savvy, but it would be a difficult sell. Orpik should not be considered a core piece, of the defense moving forward, especially with youngsters Dimitri Orlov and Nate Schmidt proving so valuable. His starts in the defensive zone have steadily declined over the past 6 seasons, and for a supposedly shutdown player, his quality of competition has also taken a nosedive. He contributes nearly nothing offensively for a team that thrives off of its offensive creativity, potting only 18 goals in over 1000 games played, including 0 this past season to go with 14 assists. His hitting ability is well-documented, but for a team that employs Tom Wilson, physicality will not be a problem. Finding a way before expansion to unload his contract would be a godsend, but it will take some maneuvering on the part of management.

Assuming the Capitals don’t move a contract out, they still will be left exposing one or both of Orlov and Schmidt. Up front, it’s obvious that Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, Kuznetsov, Wilson, and two of the Oshie (if re-signed), Andre Burakovsky(RFA), Lars Eller trio will be protected. (Eller himself could be an option in a move for cap relief) On the backend, Niskanen and John Carlson look like locks, and a decision will need to be made regarding the third protected player. The wildcard for Washington is that, considering his strong play in very limited action, backup goaltender Philipp Grubauer could instead be claimed by Vegas.

It’s difficult to foresee where the Capitals go from here, realizing there will be bidding wars for the two players they are likely to want to retain in Oshie and Alzner. Even in a best case scenario, this Capitals team will not have the strength it did in 2016-17.

Sabres Notes: Botterill, Head Coach Options

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With Jason Botterill officially leaving the Pittsburgh Penguins organization to assume the GM duties in Buffalo, the rookie manager faces the tall task of turning a Sabres team that has failed to qualify for the postseason since 2010-11 into a legitimate Stanley Cup threat. His job is a little easier given the presence of  franchise center Jack Eichel and a talented blue liner in Rasmus Ristolainen, who has the potential to be a top-pair defender for many years. However, the challenge that confronts Botterill is still daunting. Along those lines, Sportsnet’s Luke Fox identifies six high priority items he believes the new GM must tackle in his quest to build a winning organization.

First, and perhaps most obvious, the Sabres will have to hire a coach and given the reportedly tumultuous relationship former head coach Dan Bylsma had with many of his charges, getting the right guy behind the bench is critical to Buffalo’s future. Fox lists several names that have been floated in the media, with current Pittsburgh assistants Rich Tocchet and Jacques Martin standing out due to their prior working relationship with Botterill. Both men have prior head coaching experience and given the recent success each has enjoyed as members of the Penguins staff, either would be able to bring a winning mentality to Buffalo.

Additionally, Fox points out that Botterill will have to fix a defense corps that was a glaring weakness last season and is slated to see two regulars, Cody Franson and Dmitry Kulikov, depart as free agents. There will be options available this summer in free agency, Karl Alzner, Kevin Shattenkirk and Trevor Daley are among those specifically mentioned by the scribe, but likely won’t come cheap. Given the team’s salary cap situation – less than $23MM in projected space – and with Eichel and Sam Reinhart each needing new deals ahead of 2018-19, Botterill will have to be judicious with his cap dollars in the offseason.

All told, it’s an interesting take on Botterill’s situation with the Sabres, and well worth a full read.

In other Sabres news:

  • Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News also has a suggestion for Botterill’s head coaching search, identifying Washington assistant coach Todd Reirden as “the perfect fit,” for the Sabres. Kennedy references that prior to joining the Capitals, Reirden served on Dan Bylsma’s coaching staff in Pittsburgh where Botterill would have had a chance to get to know the former NHL defenseman. Additionally, the first-time GM is on record as saying he wants Buffalo to play an up-tempo brand of hockey that focuses on puck possession. As Kennedy points out, Reirden’s former employer, Washington, has been one of the league’s top teams in terms of possession in recent seasons. Reirden also guided one of the NHL’s top defense corps, with the Capitals allowing the fewest goals in the league in 2016-17. Botterill also said he is looking for a teacher and as Kennedy points out, Reirden has earned rave reviews in Washington with his help developing Nate Schmidt and Dmitry Orlov into quality defenseman. It’s also worth noting that with Buffalo believed to be in the market for blue liners, hiring Reirden might give them a leg up on the competition should they pursue pending Washington UFA defenders Karl Alzner and/or Kevin Shattenkirk.
  • Lastly, Bill Hoppe of Buffalo Hockey Beat writes that Botterill intends to prioritize icing a competitive team in Rochester, believing that success in the AHL is a great tool in developing young talent. Botterill was a key figure for three seasons with Rochester and played with future Sabres Ryan Miller, Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy and Paul Gaustad with the Amerks. Those players would help guide the Sabres to back-to-back appearances in the Conference Final after the 2006-07 and 2007-08 campaigns. That was the last time Buffalo won even a playoff round, and they’ve made the postseason just twice in the 10 years since. Botterill also saw a strong feeder team payoff while in Pittsburgh, with young players like Conor Sheary, Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel, just to name a few, coming up from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton and making an immediate impact with the big club. Sheary and Rust won a Stanley Cup last season with Pittsburgh and the Penguins have a chance to repeat that feat as they begin their Eastern Conference final match against Ottawa later today.

Metro Division Notes: Capitals, Smith, Flyers, Shero

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With perhaps the most complete team top-to-bottom in franchise history, the Washington Capitals believed they had all the pieces to finally propel themselves past the arch-rival Pittsburgh Penguins and into the Eastern Conference Final for the first time in Alex Ovechkin’s 12-year NHL career. However, after yet another disappointing defeat at the hands of the Penguins, Washington must now once again go back to the drawing board in search of the right formula. Unlike in years past when the roster’s shortcomings were easy to identify, Capitals GM Brian McLellan will have a much tougher time this summer identifying an obvious solution to the team’s deficiencies, as Isabelle Khurshudyan of The Washington Post writes.

As Khurshudyan notes, since assuming the top job with the Caps, MacLellan has strategically set about filling holes on the roster as he attempted to construct a championship team. First he went to work to address the team’s defense corps, inking veteran blue liners Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik as free agents in the summer of 2014. The next year, the GM brought in Justin Williams and T.J. Oshie via free agency and trade respectively, to “bolster the top-six.” Last summer, MacLellan dealt two draft picks to Montreal for Lars Eller and signed Brett Connolly to add more speed and skill to the team’s third line. The cherry on top was acquiring prized, puck-moving defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk at the trade deadline, adding an impact player to an already stacked lineup while at the same time keeping him from going to a conference rival (it was believed Pittsburgh and the N.Y. Rangers were also in the Shattenkirk sweepstakes). While it all added up to perhaps the best team in the league on paper, in the end Washington couldn’t exorcise their postseason demons and once again are left wondering what could have been.

Clearly MacLellan will again try to construct a Stanley Cup-caliber club but with Oshie, Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner and Williams all scheduled to be UFA’s, and with less than $22MM available in projected cap space, it’s likely the team will lose at least two key contributors from that group. Complicating matters is the fact that Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky and Dmitry Orlov will be RFA’s and in line for significant raises over their 2017 salaries. Barring some savvy salary cap maneuverings this summer, it’s quite possible the Capitals best chance to win a Stanley Cup with Ovechkin on the roster just passed them by.

More from the Metro:

  • Though many suspected the New York Rangers would land the aforementioned Shattenkirk at the trade deadline, the team instead balked at paying the higher price and made a less expensive move for fellow blue liner Brendan Smith. Like many deadline acquisitions, Smith struggled at times while settling into a new organization and adapting to a different system but the veteran blue liner found his stride in the postseason, providing much needed bite and steady play on the back end for the Blueshirts. It’s common knowledge the Rangers will attempt to upgrade the puck-moving ability and mobility on the team’s blue line but Smith showed he may be part of that solution and the Rangers might be wise to consider re-signing the pending UFA. For his part, Smith would welcome a return to Manhattan, according to Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post, saying: “I really enjoyed being here. I like the guys, the group.” After making $2.75MM in 2016-17, Smith will undoubtedly be able to generate offers in the range of $4MM annually on the open market. But at just 28 years old, re-signing Smith to a three or four-year pact at that price point might prove to be more prudent than luring the top prospective UFA blue liner, Shattenkirk, to the Blueshirts.
  • While the 2016-17 campaign will go down as a disappointing one for the Philadelphia Flyers, Dave Scott, president and CEO of the club’s parent company, Comcast Spectacor, would rather focus on the successful development of the organization’s younger players, as Sam Carchidi of Philly.com writes. GM Ron Hextall has avoided quick fixes in the free agent and trade markets and instead patiently rebuilt the team, focusing on the draft-and-develop model. Even though the team failed to qualify for a postseason berth, the successful debut of prized defense prospect Ivan Provorov served notice that Hextall’s plan is beginning to bear fruit. Carchidi noted that Scott is also excited about the potential of prospects Oskar Lindblom and Mike Vecchione. It also doesn’t hurt the Flyers rebuild that Philadelphia jumped several spots in the draft lottery, snagging the #2 overall selection and the opportunity to select one of Nolan Patrick, the consensus top talent in this draft for much of the last year, or Nico Hischier to further bolster an impressive pool of young talent. If Hextall can find a competent starting goaltender, either in free agency or via trade, it wouldn’t be out of the question to see Philadelphia make a huge leap in the standings in 2017-18 and qualify for the postseason.
  • The New Jersey Devils may not have enjoyed much on-ice success in 2016-17 but those struggles were mitigated at least somewhat by overcoming the odds to win the NHL draft lottery. Now the Devils will have the chance to add an impact offensive talent to a roster that badly needs more skill. But lost in the shuffle of New Jersey’s good fortune is the fact the team also has two second-round choices, their own and Boston’s courtesy of the 2016 trade deadline trade of Lee Stempniak to the Bruins. While not nearly as valuable as the first overall selection, boasting two second-round picks will give the club a chance to add two more good young players to the system. However, as Chris Ryan of NJ.com notes, Devils GM Ray Shero does not have a particularly good track record of success in the second round. Going back to his days as GM in Pittsburgh, Shero and his teams have made a total of eight choices in the second round. Of that group, Scott Harrington (#54 overall in 2011) leads the way in NHL games played (47), goals (1) and points (4). Of course it is fair to point out that Shero’s recent selections are still young enough to carve out successful big league careers. In fact, goaltender Tristan Jarry (#44 overall in 2013) would be in line to assume the understudy role in Pittsburgh, assuming the team moves Marc-Andre Fleury after the season. Still, if New Jersey’s rise back to relevance is to happen sooner rather than later, Shero would do well to find quality players with the team’s two second-rounders in June.

Notes: Stalberg, Bieksa, Vegas

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Ottawa’s Viktor Stalberg could be seeing a quick return to playoff action. Coach Guy Boucher stated that the speedy winger is “hopeful” for Game 1 of the Conference Finals series against Pittsburgh tomorrow. When he left the lineup midway through Game 6 against the New York Rangers, it was uncertain how long he would be sidelined. Stalberg has proved a solid addition to an already deep forward corps since acquired by GM Pierre Dorion at the deadline. His flexibility has been a useful asset for Boucher, who has been able to slot him up and down the lineup.  Stalberg provides solid penalty killing and has added energy to the new second line alongside Derick Brassard and Bobby Ryan.

  • Kevin Bieksa did not take the ice tonight for the Anaheim Ducks in their first game against the Nashville Predators. Bieksa has been in and out of the lineup for coach Randy Carlyle. Bieksa is obviously nursing a substantial lower-body issue, although there have been plenty of options on the blueline to replace him. He’s missed the last six games and was a potential go for this evening. The Ducks have had many of their players quickly recover from short-term injuries and return to action, leaving the likes of Korbinian Holzer and Clayton Stoner in the press box. Winger Patrick Eaves is also out with an injury for the team, as is the mobile but fragile defenseman Simon Despres.
  • Mock drafts are all the rage with the fast-approaching Vegas Golden Knights expansion draft. Plenty of moves are sure to precede the events which will start on June 18th and conclude on the 21st. TSN’s Scott Cullen provided an interesting potential squad to add to consideration. It included the likes of Brian Dumoulin, Matt Dumba, and Trevor van Riemsdyk on D, as well as forwards Lee Stempniak, Vladislav Namestnikov, and Craig Smith. It seems like potent offensive talent will be the hardest role to fill in any hypothetical Golden Knights roster, but hopefully the addition of flashy center Vadim Shipachyov can alleviate some of that need. Defense should be easy to come by, especially considering that many teams will opt to only protect three of their own. Regardless, the concern franchises will have over losing valuable pieces for nothing at all will certainly spur movement of some kind.

Should The Capitals Trade Alex Ovechkin?

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For many, the latest second-round dud in a long history of stinging defeats for the Washington Capitals was the final straw. Commentators and analysts from around the league and in the nation’s capital have openly contemplated whether the team’s captain and generational talent Alex Ovechkin should be traded. While there is a case to be made for considering the option, there is a long list of reasons Washington would get fleeced in such a deal and should avoid it at all costs.

Firstly, Ovechkin is not likely to bring back a player anywhere near his caliber. Granted, all 30 other franchises would be clamoring for a chance to bid on his services. However, these would almost certainly involve lesser players. The old adage of “never trade quality for quantity” would hold true in this scenario. Although the Capitals could completely restock their 3rd and 4th lines, their prospect pool, as well as add a difference maker – the bottom line is they lose the best player in the deal.

Second, Ovechkin is a pure goal scoring menace. He dictates the flow of play when he is on his game in a way few other players can. His hitting ability and aggressiveness only add dimensions to the offense he brings to a team. There are few players who can score with as much consistency and be relied upon to bury a puck. He has accumulated 558 goals in 921 games. Other than Steven Stamkos and Phil Kessel, no one is even in the same stratosphere. When a game is on the line, you need a player who can score – Ovechkin can, even if he didn’t this spring. And his playoff goals per game – well, he’s potted 44 in 46 games played – good for be 24th all time.

Third, nearly all historical examples of megastars being traded have turned into total backfires for the team. When 19 year-old Tyler Seguin was dealt to the Dallas Stars along with Rich Peverley from the Boston Bruins due to rumored conduct issues, the return was minimal. Loui Eriksson has ultimately contributed to his team after long slumps and Joe Morrow has just begun to crack the lineup. Reilly Smith has turned into a serviceable player, but Seguin’s 306 points in 305 games for Dallas easily dwarf Smith’s efforts. When Jaromir Jagr was dealt in his late prime to the Washington Capitals, the Penguins went 5 years without a Playoff appearance and suffered further heavy financial losses. Michal Sivek, and Ross Lupaschuk, both intriguing players at the time, went on to play a combined 41 games, and in 7 seasons Kris Beech only scored 25 goals. When dealing with prospect and pick returns, there is no sure thing.

Moving Ovechkin may seem to make sense in the aftermath of yet another playoff disappointment, but trading generational talents rarely works out well. Although changes are certainly coming Washington’s way, it would likely be a mistake to move on from the future hall-of-fame left wing. He is still earning his $9.5 MM contract, but a year removed from a Rocket Richard trophy.

Predators’ Draft Plummet

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If the Nashville Predators are ever to win a Stanley Cup, this seems the most likely year. Their window is far from closing, to be sure. But for a team that doesn’t often spend to the cap, their long-term finances may become complicated. They have a multitude of players performing well above their contract levels, are benefiting from Entry-Level Contracts (Viktor Arvidsson and Kevin Fiala), and the bulk of their team is in their late twenties. Nashville isn’t the most dynamic offensive force, but have gotten enough scoring  this outing to support the absurdly good top-four defense and brilliant goaltending from Pekka Rinne (.951 SV%).

That said, if they fail to win the glorious prize at the end of four series, will their draft plummet be seen as worth the hassle? They finished with the West’s lowest seeding in Wild Card 2, and the worst overall record in the playoffs at 94 points, edging out the Calgary Flames and Toronto Maple Leafs. Their draft plummet is quite the precarious one, similar to the 8th seeded 2011-12 Los Angeles Kings in the entry draft. Of course, that team went 16-4 in the postsesason to win the Stanley Cup, and certainly didn’t mind sacrificing a higher first-round pick to win their franchise’s first title.

But what if they hadn’t won? By advancing to the post-season’s final four, Los Angeles automatically shifted from drafting 16th to 30th. If the Predators were to lose in the Conference Finals, it would mean a drop from 17th to 28th. A Finals loss would mean 30th. Obviously, fans aren’t concerned with these sorts of trivialities when rooting on their team to glory, nor necessarily should they be. However, for management, this is quite the potential concern. Finding failure late in the playoffs and then also suffering the sting of a draft position dive is tough to stomach. After all, deals can sometimes hinge on whether a first or second round pick is early, mid, or late round.

For reference, let us look at the last 10 years draft history with regard to the 17th and 28th selections to see the potential disparity:

2016: 17th D Dante Fabbro (NSH), 28th F Lucas Johannson (WSH)

2015: 17th F Kyle Connor (WPG), 28th F Anthony Beauvillier (NYI)

2014: 17th D Travis Sanheim (PHI), 28th Josh Ho-Sang (NYI)

2013: 17th F Curtis Lazar (OTT), 28th F Morgan Klimchuck (CGY)

2012: 17th F Tomas Hertl (SJ), 28th D Brady Skjei (NYR)

2011: 17th F Nathan Beaulieu (MTL), 28th F Zach Phillips (MIN)

2010: 17th F Joey Hison (COL), 28th F Charlie Coyle (MIN)

2009: 17th D David Rundblad (STL), 28th F Dylan Olsen (TBL)

2008: 17th D Jake Gardiner (ANA), 28th F Viktor Tikhonov (PHX)

2007: 17th F Alexei Cherepanov (NYR), 28th Nick Petrecki (SJ)

The jury is still completely out on last year’s draft class, but as you can see, the two prior years have worked out quite well for the New York Islanders at the 28th spot. Beauvillier and Ho-Sang have both developed into studs quite quickly, while Connor and Sanheim still have a lot to prove. As we look at the last decade of entry drafts, there seems to be no real discernible advantage in terms of NHL projection. So although 11 spots seems like an awful long way to drop, Nashville (and any other future conference finalists) can rest easy that their relative success will still hinge upon being able to scout and develop talent properly.

Snapshots: Ducks, Blues, Goalie Interference

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Anaheim could possibly see the return of two players this evening in their potentially series-deciding Game 6 against Edmonton. Forward Ondrej Kase has only played in two post-season games, but was a spark-plug for the Ducks when inserted. The 21 year-old had played parts of two seasons with the AHL affiliate San Diego Gulls before his call up and 53 games this season for Anaheim, tallying 5 goals and 10 assists. His quick ascension as a 205th overall pick has been impressive, if largely unheralded and under-the-radar. For a rookie, he has shown poise in his own end and adjusted well to the tempo of the playoffs. Although pointless, his possession metrics have been strong and he has skated well in his very sheltered ice time. It will be interesting to see if he will slot back in or if coach Randy Carlyle will opt for a more veteran presence.

Defenseman Kevin Bieksa is also an option on the backend, but with the emergence of Shea Theodore, it is difficult to justify his re-entry into the lineup. Although Bieksa boasts a wealth of playoff experience, his team is 3-0 in his absence this series. His skating has slowed to a crawl and he has been exploited repeatedly by the Oilers forward corps. Carlyle is known to like his veterans however, and it is possible he finds the ice tonight.  Sami Vatanen could find himself in the pressbox if that were the case.

  • TSN’s Frank Seravelli is predicting a huge discussion this offseason among general managers regarding the league’s goalie interference and coach’s challenge rules. Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli was obviously irritated in his post-game interview following yet another controversy in Game 5, as were numerous Edmonton players. Late in the third against Anaheim, Ryan Kesler appeared to hold goaltender Cam Talbot’s right pad as the tying goal was shot through his five hole. Although a review was instituted, it quickly upheld the call of a “good goal”, to much befuddlement among experts and players. Anaheim went on to win the game. This issue has come up consistently throughout the season and its application does seem very obscure. Some slight bumps have overturned goals and completely hindering a goaltender from making a save has been allowed. Clarity on the league’s part as to what constitutes goalie interference would go a long way in alleviating these sorts of issues going forward, but some GMs may opt to abandon the challenge altogether and revert to the former system. For all its faults, the challenge has been particularly useful in attempting to relieve pressure from on-ice officials during fast-paced gameplay. In the case of offsides, for instance, there has been little disagreement on the positive impact reviews have had. Some argue that the interruptions to play are too extensive, but it seems unlikely the challenge will be entirely scrapped, but rather, modified.
  • Folowing the St. Louis Blues’ playoff exit, attention will turn to off-season business. The team only has one UFA in forward Scottie Upshall, and three RFAs in forwards Nail Yakupov, Magnus Paajarvi, and defenseman Colton Parayko. Upshall is a good bet to head elsewhere, as his solid (if unremarkable) season will likely get him a spot on a team in more desperate need of role players. Yakupov could easily turn his sights to Russia if a larger contract offer comes his way and negotiations stall. There is no transfer agreement with the KHL however, so this will be an interesting case to watch. Parayko is absolutely deserving of a raise, as he has consistently contributed on the backend. In only his second NHL season, the 6’6″ tower has averaged over 23 minutes of ice per night and blocked shots with the best of them. He definitely has a bright future and it would be wise for St. Louis to lock him up long-term. It might be difficult to squeeze him under the cap at a higher, extended rate, however. Paajarvi will likely get a very marginal raise on a short-term contract extension. He only participated in 32 contests this season after being plagued by injury and splitting time with the Chicago Wolves of the AHL.

Course Adjustment For Colorado

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Colorado needs to determine the road ahead for its franchise. The unexpected plummet to the 4th overall pick in the draft lottery did not help matters, to be sure, but the Avalanche need more than a Nolan Patrick to catapult them back into contention. The team has lacked identity for years and a team philosophy is hard to isolate. The team finished a league worst 22 wins, good for an embarrassingly bad 48 points. They were not expected to be serious cup contenders coming into the year, but this is a team that had veteran scorers and a decent goaltending duo to back up their young forward core. Yet they finished in dead last in both offensive and defensive categories – 1.74 goals for per 60, and 2.93 goals against. With such an incredible disparity it’s actually impressive they won as many contests as they did.

GM Joe Sakic needs to determine which pieces of his core (if any) are worth keeping. It seems probable that the team could consider trading away its captain in Gabriel Landeskog, and the case for doing so is strong. He potted only 18 goals and 15 assists this season, his 5th full campaign – at the exorbitant price of $5.5 MM (which will become $6 MM next season). The center has never developed into the offensive threat the franchise had hoped when he was selected 2nd overall in 2011. His point totals have dropped for the second season in a row. However, his Corsi For % was actually his career best at 52.8, and on a team that bled goals and chances, he performed admirably in his own end. Whether he is worth his deal is certainly a less pressing issue than stopping the bleeding. Unless an over-payment comes along the Avalanche would be wise to stick out at least another season with the still-promising left wing.

Speedy forward Matt Duchene is two years older, and fared only marginally better, with 18 goals and 23 assists. Duchene is not physically imposing a 5’11”, and he is more effective on the rush. His speed and versatility are his greatest assets. Duchene’s skating can burn defenders and his skating is among the tops in the league. When considering that the quick and fleet-footed Nathan MacKinnon is also on the team, it seems that Colorado might want to double down on the speed aspect of their negligible identity. Duchene would almost certainly draw more interest than Landeskog, as the forward did pot 30 goals just the previous season. Although the talk seems distant now, there was considerable conversation following the 2009 draft that the Islanders would have done better to draft Duchene than John Tavares. This is a player who can make a meaningful difference on the playmaking side of things, but saw a drastic drop off in play. Trading Duchene seems the most logical option, but his departure will only leave the center ice position more lackluster.

The Avalanche could toy with moving RFA center Mikhail Grigorenko, or RFA defenseman Patrick Wiercioch, but the returns after last season would be marginal at best. One can only assume that Sakicc attempted to unload forwards like Blake Comeau ($2.5 MM), and now UFA defenseman Fedor Tyutin to no avail. Thankfully the well-worn Jarome Iginla was shipped off to Los Angeles and there are indeed older players coming off the books. The 35 year-old Rene Bourque and 32 year-old John Mitchell will both be UFAs and will have difficulty finding work next season in the league.

Ultimately, the problem for the Avalanche wasn’t that their stars didn’t produce, although that certainly didn’t help their goal totals. Their team was filled with washed-up veterans and outside of the big 3 on offense there was really no threat to score. On the backend, once Erik Johnson went down, the rest of the defense was not nearly good enough to keep up. Tyson Barrie is the only player who should feel remotely safe, and the young RFA Nikita Zadorov is likely to hang around. Francois Beauchemin is not the defender he was even two seasons ago, and if he could somehow be traded it would help performance substantially.

Trading away the #4 selection is usually an unthinkable notion with a team at this stage of a rebuild, but if they can move it for substantial help on defense or on the wing, it should be considered. Especially considering how mediocre this draft class is, it might turn out to be a prudent maneuver. One of Landeskog or Duchene seems likely to depart, but without a king’s ransom coming back, it’s not likely to alter long-term prospects for the franchise. Colorado simply needs to draft better, develop better, and find a coach with the structure that a young, struggling squad will need. If they could make a serious pitch to Karl Alzner this off-season, or perhaps even Thomas Vanek on the wing, they would be in a better position to compete on a nightly basis. Their offensive stars are unlikely to be quite as dreadful in points production yet again. Perhaps the most positive aspect of the upcoming season will be the infusion of youth from the minor leagues, and the ditching of dead weight up and down the lineup. Sakic will need to provide stability for the franchise and perhaps even display some patience rather than dumping a slumping offensive talent for a lackluster package. Although fans may wish for change at any cost, ditching their core players for scraps is not likely the best way forward. Whatever course Colorado decides to take, fans around the league will be watching with interest this summer.

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