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The Latest On Tomas Tatar’s Negotiations

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One of the bigger names still waiting on a deal is the Detroit Red Wings’ Tomas Tatar, who is due a huge raise. All has been quiet in Detroit outside of the fact that Tatar filed for arbitration, which was suspected. But George Malik, of Kuklas Korner, found this interview that shed some light on what’s going on between Detroit and Tatar:

“Arbitration is the last option, I have to sign off, it’s just a mandatory contract. Unless I agree with Detroit, I’ll go to the court, where they’ll give me a year’s contract. That would probably be my last season in Detroit. We’ll see in a few days or weeks before it all comes together,” said Tatar.

The Athletic’s Craig Custance looks further into the issue, pointing out that should Detroit only sign Tatar to a year, it would certainly help the rebuilding process in terms of what Tatar could rein in at the deadline. At the same time, he wonders why the Red Wings, who already have an overabundance of bad contracts, would want to extend Tatar for a long time when the team is clearly not going to be anywhere near contender status in the near future.  But Custance, after getting a “no comment” from general manager Ken Holland, makes a very astute point:

Put another way, only 30 NHL players have scored more goals in that three-year span than Tatar. That comes with a cost, and for an organization that was willing to pay Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm and Gustav Nyquist market value, this would be the odd one in which to take a hard line on.

Apr 17, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning goalie <a rel=

The money owed to Helm and Abdelkader alone makes this perplexing to any Red Wings fan. Both received generous offers in comparison to their ho-hum production. Tatar is a slam dunk. If the Red Wings are truly “rebuilding on the fly,” as Holland as said for has nearly been five seasons, he finds a way to extend Tatar for multiple years. But this team isn’t set up to do much. Though the Athletic’s Sean Tierney shows that the Red Wings made slight gains in goal scoring, it’s just that: slight. Detroit has the fourth oldest roster in hockey, which only pushes the notion that they should be looking to get younger.

The Red Wings, whether or not the front office wants to admit it, are a shell of what they once were. Though Holland’s goal is to make the playoffs next season, he’s returning a roster that is nearly identical to the same squad who mustered just 79 points. That seems like a farfetched goal. But if the playoffs are truly in their crosshairs, Tatar’s signing is a critical piece to returning.

 

Is The Window Closing For The Chicago Blackhawks?

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FanRag’s Carolyn Wilke outlines a few questions Chicago may have as they catch their breath following a head-spinning offseason. One such question Wilke revolves around general manager Stan Bowman who vowed changes following the Hawks’ four game sweep at the hands of the Nashville Predators. She points out that Bowman has been made to be the architect of the modern day dynasty, but trading away first round picks may be burning the Hawks. To be fair, Bowman’s deal with Arizona in 2015 to acquire Antoine Vermette netted a Stanley Cup–while yielding a first round pick.

But the past two exits, Wilke writes, may cast some doubt on Bowman’s abilities should they get bounced early again. The depth pieces he’s drafted or signed have not provided the help they need to sustain contender status. While Bowman has done a masterful job of keeping the team together, it’s often overlooked that a lot of the heavy lifting, and drafting was done by his predecessor, Dale Tallon, who was unceremoniously dumped in 2009. Worse, it’s well known that Bowman, and not Tallon, might have been more responsible for the qualifying offer deadline fiasco that ultimately cost Tallon his job.

To be sure, Tallon made his fair share of mistakes that didn’t help his case. But Bowman, who has offered some  questionable contracts that have gummed up the cap situation, is facing what is most likely his most telling season since taking over as GM. From a purely numerical standpoint, it doesn’t look promising.

Mar 14, 2017; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Chicago Blackhawks forward <a rel=

The Athletic’s Sean Tierney uses quantitative analysis to measure how Bowman did in his trades this offseason. Though they got younger and cheaper, Tierney uses Goals Above Replacement to illustrate just how much talent and production Chicago lost in the trade. When measuring the current roster versus its previous one, Tierney finds that there’s a steep drop off in production. Though Brandon Saad rises to the top of the GAR list,

The more startling metrics, using a model created by Dom Galamini. reveal that the Hawks playoff probability pre-trade (sans Marian Hossa) was 49%  Following Bowman’s moves, it dips to 37%.

Is this to say the Blackhawks are doomed? Hardly.

But what it does show is just how difficult it is to win in the National Hockey League. Bowman has done a good enough job with the cap, and yet, like every other general manager, has struggled with a few deals that have come back to haunt him. The Brent Seabrook deal immediately comes to mind.

His tightrope act following the 2010 Stanley Cup championship allowed the Hawks to keep key parts, and astutely pick new talent to fill it.  Saad was one of those pieces, selected in the 2011 draft.

So is the window really closing?  Numbers can’t certainly predict everything, especially since the metrics used to predict playoff probability didn’t include some players that may see time. Phenom Alex DeBrincat falls into that category, especially if his goal scoring prowess from juniors carries over to the pros. He may not score buckets of goals, but consistent contribution is what the Hawks need for the future, especially as the core ages.

Last year’s team was tops in the Western Conference, winning 50 games and potting 109 points. It’s hardly time to write their epitaph.

But there certainly are signs that their dominance won’t be what it once was.

Red Wings Notes: Tatar, Athanasiou, DeKeyser, Nelson

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With Tomas Tatar and Andreas Athanasiou still waiting on contracts, the Athletic’s Craig Custance projects what they could earn once they sign on the dotted line. Tatar has been one of the few Red Wings scoring at a regular clip and his deal should be around $4.3MM per year. Term and dollars will be important to both parties, and Custance calls this the “tricky” notion of Tatar’s deal. Tatar potted 25 goals last season and is deserving of a significant raise. Meanwhile, Athanasiou is still relatively young, though many can already see how his devastating speed and scoring prowess could quickly translate into multiple 20 goal seasons, and possibly, 30. The Wings, according to Custance, could get him around a $1.9MM AAV because of his lesser time in the NHL. But if the trends continue, Athanasiou will come at a bridge bargain now, while getting a significant pay raise later.

  • Defenseman Danny DeKeyser has become somewhat of a pariah for some Red Wings fans, but The Athletic’s Jack Han takes a closer look at the somewhat predictable decline in DeKeyser’s play and numbers. Signed by Detroit as an unrestricted free agent in 2013, DeKeyser flourished in the top six under Mike Babcock and earned the nickname “the human eraser” for his staunch commitment to his end of the ice while keeping opposing scorers in check. All of this changed, according to Han, when new coach Jeff Blashill took over and the defensive corps weakened.Apr 15, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Detroit Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser (65) during the first period of the game two of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Detroit Red Wings at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY SportsDeKeyser was given top pair minutes, which exposed him against the better players on opposing squads. Worse, the generous contract from general manager Ken Holland only increased the scrutiny on his play, especially after a disastrous season in 2016-17. Is DeKeyser truly as bad as some think? Han doesn’t think so. He takes a look at Corsi and Scoring Chances to quantify DeKeyser’s value and after a thorough job, notes that DeKeyser certainly isn’t deserving of high end minutes. Regardless of where he does end up, it’s destined to be a rough road with a Red Wings blue line that isn’t exactly top tier.
  • With the hiring of Rick Tocchet in Arizona, Calder Cup Champion and current Grand Rapids bench boss Todd Nelson will remain with the Griffins. Nelson, hired back in 2015, has guided the Griffins to a second round showing in 2015-16, and a championship in 2016-17. The Red Wings are looking at infusing more youth into the lineup and Nelson steered much of that young talent with a steady hand. Having Nelson in Grand Rapids gives the organization peace of mind knowing that the development of several critical players, notably Evgeny Svechnikov, will be overseen by one of the best in the AHL.

RFAs Headed For Payday In Arbitration

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As the list of the players who have filed for arbitration was released earlier today by the NHLPA, a few names stick out as those due a meaningful raise. Arbitration is a tricky process to reliably predict, but it’s a safe bet these names will see their cap hit rise substantially.

 

Brian Dumoulin – D – Pittsburgh Penguins

There was a time when the young Dumoulin was a well-kept secret in the league, overshadowed by the far flashier play of Kris Letang. Dumoulin’s accolades this last playoff year certainly didn’t go unnoticed, and as the lone defensive defenseman in their core group, he probably holds the greatest job security on the team’s blueline. He doesn’t put up points – only one goal in the last two seasons, but he blocks shots and drives possession while eating a ton of minutes against top competition. As analytics are utilized more and more, his case only gets stronger. A contract well over $4 MM is certainly looking possible.

Colton Parayko – D – St. Louis Blues

This is the name seen most commonly associated with offer-sheets this summer, and with good reason. Parayko plays with the mentality of an old-time defenseman, but he can skate quite well for a large (6’6) man. He’s only had two seasons in the NHL, but he’s impressed since he first took the ice. Again, he isn’t a massive offensive force (he scored 3 goals last season), but he’s already averaging over 21 minutes a night with near equal starts in both the offensive and defensive zone. He’ll be hurt by the quantifiable stats factor, but he’s a big body with a rare right-handed shot to boot. This contract could look relatively cheap compared to his next, if he continues along this course. He should cost around $5.5 MM.

Ondrej Palat – F – Tampa Bay Lightning

Others will look to the undersized center Tyler Johnson as most likely to get a payday. But don’t over look Palat’s consistency – it may give him an edge with arbiters. Johnson does have his 72 point campaign to lean on, but that was now two full seasons ago. The fact that both players couldn’t break 20 goals in the last two seasons will bring their prices back down to Earth. Palat has grown into his role on the team and back-checks with a ferocity not often seen in younger stars. Johnson is no slouch either – they’ve both accumulated Selke votes over the years. These are two pivotal pieces of the Lightning, and their upcoming contracts were a big reason Jonathan Drouin was traded away to Montreal. GM Steve Yzerman will happily lock both up, but he will be hoping for figures under the $6 MM mark.

Viktor Arvidsson – F – Nashville Predators

This would have been an unlikely name on such a list even last December, when you consider how truly meteoric Arvidsson’s rise was. His value in arbitration will be deeply interesting – the shifty winger has played himself into the core of the team within a season. He really only has 2016-17 and the long playoff run to hang his hat on, as he scored only 16 points through 56 games in 2015-16. This year was a remarkable offensive explosion, with 30 goals and 31 assists. At only 5’9, Arvidsson has really shocked many onlookers by how easily he’s adapted to the physicality of the NHL game. His talent has never been in question, and with his production now well-established, it’s safe to believe he’s going to get a cushy award. How bad the damage will be is going to affect Nashville’s cap going forward – I suspect over $5 MM, but there are few comparables.

Mikael Granlund – F – Minnesota Wild

Granlund is perhaps slightly more enticing league wide than fellow Wild RFA Nino Niederreiter. He’s a marginally more cerebral player, and he plays the valuable center position. Neiderreiter is the more natural goal-scorer and larger frame, but Granlund has better PPG and has broken 30 assists thrice. Both players will get paid, as they both broke 25 goals last season and will be important pieces in the State of Hockey for some time. I think the more interesting thing to watch here is whether the Wild play it safe with Granlund and take a one year deal, or attempt to lock him up for longer. This was the first season he really scored with any consistency, but the Wild have shown their faith in the player by continually giving him over 17 minutes of icetime even when he struggled to produce. A one-year would easily command over $5 MM, whereas a longer deal could bring cost down.

 

Snapshots: Franson, Cheveldayoff, Marleau

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We’re still all quiet on the Cody Franson front, which has many analysts stumped. Franson is a decent possession player when you look at career Corsi and Fenwick. He’s the youngest “big name” defenseman left un-signed in unrestricted free agency. He played 68 games for the Buffalo Sabres, who were admittedly porous defensively, but finished with a minus 5 on a team where no one broke a plus 3. What’s most intriguing is his ability to skate combined with his overall size – 6’5 and 224 pounds. Franson also has a right-handed shot from the point, something many teams are lacking and actively seeking. He’s the prototype for a #4 defenseman in today’s NHL, and at only 30, has more hockey left in him. There’s been nearly no smoke around this player as we finish the third day of free agency, and that alone is befuddling.

  • Winnipeg GM Kevin Cheveldayoff believes his Jets “are a cap team now”, and he’s willing to spend accordingly per Postmedia’s Ken Weibe. Cheveldayoff has been infamous league-wide for his reluctance to make too many roster moves – it took him the better part of three seasons to even make a trade. That said, he seems to be embracing a more proactive role in management. On July 1st he signed defensemen Dimitri Kulikov and goaltender Steve Mason to expensive contracts, and moved on from veterans Chris Thorburn and Mark Stuart. With his core players entering their primes, the time to compete is apparently now.
  • Patrick Marleau had a quality radio interview with TSN 1050 Toronto earlier this evening. There were a few good quotes that resulted, but nothing out of the ordinary. Perhaps the most humorous moment in the segment was when Marleau insisted that he’s still “full of (pee) and vinegar…just like these kids”. Marleau apparently mulled over the decision for more than a week, weighing the pros and cons of the decision to move on from San Jose, the only franchise he’s ever played for. Ultimately, he cited his confidence in the management team, the exciting younger players in Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, and the aggressiveness of the team to compete right away as reasons which tilted the scales in favor of the Leafs. The third year on the contract offer, which will take him to age 40, probably provided him lots of incentive, as well.

Galchenyuk Negotiations Intensify

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Alex Galchenyuk has suddenly gone from pariah to absolute necessity. In the wake of losing top scoring threat Alexander Radulov via free agency to the Dallas Stars, Galchenyuk, a restricted free agent, has seen his internal value skyrocket. Radulov, of course, signed with the Stars earlier today for 5 seasons, and the Montreal offense was already severely lacking. Galchenyuk had a respectable 44 points in only 61 games last season, but that was a marginal drop from his 30-goal, 56-point campaign the year prior.

One of the largest issues for Galchenyuk this last season was consistency in his production, and many link that to his constant switching between the center and left wing roles. Galchenyuk is a more natural center, and has stated as such on numerous occasions. His defensive play has left many fans wanting, however. Two separate coaching staffs placed him on the wing at different points, and the organization has stated pretty clearly that he isn’t ready for top-line center duties. The problem for Montreal of course, is that they don’t have anyone else nearly as capable to fill that role. Tomas Plekanec is another year older and Galchenyuk is already arguably the better player. With Radulov (a right-wing) out of the picture, it might be wise to keep Galchenyuk content and comfortable.

According to Darren Dreger, Galchenyuk’s agent Pat Brisson has been in contact with GM Marc Bergevin, who will now turn his attention primarily to this contract. If they can’t come to an agreement, arbitration is always an option that can be utilized. That said, arbitration would probably only serve to fan the flames that have surrounded this player since he was supposedly placed on the block a year ago. Those flames are still not going out until that contract has been signed, and there will always be a market for young, talented centers.

When Jonathan Drouin was acquired for the left side, it seemed as though the writing was on the wall. But now, with Radulov out of the picture, losing Galchenyuk’s top-six offensive abilities would be a massive blow to the team. Montreal finished 13th in Goals For, but only two players hit the 20 goal mark – Max Pacioretty (35) and Paul Byron (22). Losing their top assist man and second-leading point getter in Radulov, it would be entirely devastating to draw the Galchenyuk negotiations out into the season, or worse, to trade him following a down year. Galchenyuk and his agent know they have the leverage in negotiations, and there’s a strong possibility they’ll use every ounce of it to get a better deal for the 23-year-old talent. Considering his production and league wide comparisons, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see him make well above $5 MM.

Joe Thornton Re-Signs With San Jose Sharks

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July 2: The Sharks have officially announced the signing.  His agency, Top Shelf Hockey, reports via Twitter that Thornton will earn $8MM in 2017-18.  TSN’s Pierre LeBrun adds (Twitter link) that the base salary is $6.75MM while he gets a $1.25MM signing bonus as well.

July 1: After all of the rumor and intrigue surrounding “Jumbo” Joe Thornton seeking a three-year deal and speaking with many teams other than the San Jose Sharks, NBC Sports’ California correspondent Kevin Kurz is reporting that Thornton has actually re-signed in San Jose for just one year. According to Bob McKenzie, the deal is worth more than $6 MM, and Fox Sports Northwest’s Andy Strickland has the exact total at $6.5 MM. This is nowhere near the paycut many experts expected from his previous $6.75 MM. In a weak UFA class, however, he ended up getting more AAV than many of the larger names out there.

The probable future Hall-of-Fame center has 1007 career assists, good for 13th all time. He only had 7 goals last season make up his 50 points in 2016-17, however, his lowest total in a full season. It was anticipated by many that perhaps fellow long-time shark Patrick Marleau would sign first, but the offer from San Jose and the allure of home was too much to keep Thornton from signing on the dotted line.

Thornton is obviously slowing down a step, but he is still one of the best playmakers in the game. His work on the powerplay is masterful and he has jump-started many younger players’ careers. On a one-year deal, there seems to be little downside to the Sharks, as he can still be a productive member of a top-9 offensive unit while providing solid defensive play. The price is a bit high, and it remains to be seen whether that will affect any potential negotiations with Marleau.

Sabres Sign Jacob Josefson

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The Buffalo Sabres have signed 26-year old center and former Devil Jacob Josefson to  a one-year deal, according to TSN’s Ryan Rishaug. The contract is worth $700,000 and is a one-way contract.

Josefson struggled to find his place on a floundering New Jersey Devils squad, only playing for 38 total games and netting only 1 goal to accompany 9 assists. Josefson is a former first round pick from 2009, and has played his entire career in Jersey. His career offensive totals are very unimpressive, but he can provide solid two-way depth to a fourth line. He generally finds himself starting in the defensive zone and until last year had always been a positive Corsi asset.

Buffalo is looking to fill out their lineup with players who are appealing in terms of advanced stats. Josefson is not going to be a negative influence on the ice and comes cheaply. Newly appointed GM Jason Botterill has been quite busy today with sneaky good signings, loading up his AHL affiliate Rochester Americans with  a number of players. Josefson will likely find a home as a 13 or 14th forward and will need to fight yet again for his icetime. Last season, he averaged only 12:15. His versatility will be a plus, as he can shift from center to wing with little difficulty.

Flyers Re-Sign Mike Vecchione

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If this headline seems familiar, that is because the Philadelphia Flyers did just sign major college free agent Mike Vecchione to his entry-level deal back in March. However, it was just a one-year contract with a promise attached to burn the year with play time in the NHL this past season. Now a restricted free agent, Vecchione is on to his second contract already, inking a two-year, $1.8MM deal with the Flyers. It is also a one-way contract, so Vecchione will be looked on to carve out a role in Philadelphia and could prove to be a major bargain at $900K.

Vecchione played in two NHL games in 2016-17, but saw only minimal ice time and did not record a point. A prolific scorer at Union College, Vecchione is expected to play a much greater role going forward. Scoring at a clip of nearly two points per game in the NCAA last year, if Vecchione’s small, speedy game translates, he could be dangerous for the Flyers right away.

In other small moves, the Flyers re-signed Corban Knight and brought in Ottawa Senators minor leaguer Phil Varone on two-year, two-way contracts this morning as well. Both Knight and Varone are veteran AHLers who add depth and experience to the Flyer’s group of call-up ready players.

Several Buyouts Before Deadline

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The deadline to buy out players is today, and several teams have taken advantage of the option before free agency starts. The following players have been placed on waivers for the purposes of a buyout: Mike Cammalleri (NJD), Devante Smith-Pelly (NJD), Mark Stuart (WIN), Lance Bouma (CGY), Ryan Murphy (CGY), Jimmy Hayes (BOS), Jussi Jokinen (FLA). The new cap hits of each player will be as follows:

Cammalleri:

2017-18: $1.67MM
2018-19: $1.67MM
2019-20: $1.67MM
2020-21: $1.67MM

Smith-Pelly:

2017-18: $175K
2018-19: $225K

Stuart:

2017-18: $1.46MM
2018-19: $583K

Bouma:

2017-18: $667K
2018-19: $767K

Murphy:

2017-18: $100K
2018-19: $138K

Hayes:

2017-18: $567K
2018-19: $867K

Jokinen:

2017-18: $1.33MM
2018-19: $1.33MM

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