Colorado Has Room To Fill Out Organization, Take Risks
The Colorado Avalanche are at a bit of a crossroads, one that could play out in a number of different ways. As of this date in late July, the Avs only have 35 players locked into organizational contracts, with only 3 RFAs left to sign. Those players are Matt Nieto (who filed for arbitration, scheduled on July 31), Nikita Zadorov, and Rocco Grimaldi. Assuming they do sign all three, they are 12 players beneath the maximum 50 allowable contracts. For a team that completely lost the rails last season in the worst post-lockout season yet, this might be a cause for alarm. But it’s also an opportunity.
GM Joe Sakic has drawn lots of fire from around the league on his handling of the Matt Duchene trade sweepstakes. Many believe he has asked for too much in return or has been unrealistic about the player’s worth. That said, he still has a highly dynamic center on a reasonable contract who has every possibility of recouping some of his value come September. Ultimately, however, we might judge Sakic by his reluctance to re-sign aging players and to move on from veteran names. Although scoring will almost certainly take a hit, when in the midst of a dismal rebuild, it’s generally unwise to block roster positions from prospects.
Sakic let Francois Beauchemin (37), Rene Bourque (35), Fedor Tyutin (34), and John Mitchell (32) all walk, in addition to 8 other players. He unloaded Jarome Iginla (40) at the trade deadline for a pick, and sniped up David Warsofsky, Jonathan Bernier, and Nail Yakupov to relatively cheap deals this off-season. While none of these moves is particularly shocking, it shows that management is on the correct page when it comes to getting younger and embracing the inevitable tank. It will undoubtedly be a tough season again in Denver, but there does seem to be a plan starting to finally coalesce.
Perhaps what is most imperative from here forward, is that after figuratively clearing the deck, the organization fills the gaps with players that make long-term sense. Sakic should make a serious endeavor to fill remaining roster contracts to players on the right side of 30, preferably those who will provide solid production at the AHL level, who might have some chance of eventually becoming contributors. If he’s particularly sensible, Sakic would seek out as many young, undrafted college and overseas players with upside as he can. Conor Sheary type players are difficult to find, but every season it seems one or two players comes out of nowhere. Sakic should be beating the bushes for unknown quantities to fill out San Antonio. The Rampage finished with only 27 wins last season, which only made the defeated fanbase’s outlook bleaker. With the Avalanche looking primed to find themselves in the Central’s basement once again, it would be wise to build a competent squad down in the minors and hope that a winning mindset floats upward.
Notably, the Avalanche are thin on defense. They’ll need to rely upon unproven youngsters on the bottom pairing, as Zadorov, Erik Johnson, Tyson Barrie, and Mark Barberio, and Warsofsky are the only players with over 100 NHL games played. None inspires a ton of confidence. Anton Lindholm has 12 games experience, Duncan Siemens has 4, and Chris Bigras has 31. Andrei Mironov, 22 and coming over from Dynamo Moscow, will have a solid crack at a spot, but it’s too early to tell how well he’ll adapt to the North American game. If Sakic were to add another NHL body, it would almost surely be on the left side.
An important component of any franchise which can go unnoticed is the depth signings at the AHL level, in addition to drafting and scouting. Sakic has given himself the leeway to build a supporting cast as he sees fit, and now we will merely need to wait and see what path he decides to take.
Free Agent Profile: Johnny Oduya
Johnny Oduya is a name that has fallen off most hockey fanatics’ radar this off-season, and perhaps there is good reason for that. Oduya is 35 years old and came off a brutal playoff performance in their sweep against Nashville. The league is certainly trending in the “what have you done for me lately” direction, so no one should be entirely shocked that he remains unclaimed this deep into July.
That said, it’s still conceivable that he has a bounce back year. For a bargain bin price, he’s worth taking a shot on. Although his dreadful 2016-17 outing had him finish with only 9 points and an uninspiring 46.8% Corsi For, he’d been above the 50% mark the prior 5 seasons. He can lo longer handle a ton of minutes, and he will need sheltering from top competition, as many bottom-pairing defensemen do. He only averaged 18:16 of ice-time through the year, but considering that 59.3% of his zone starts were in the defensive end, he managed to hold his own. As a veteran 6th or 7th defenseman, he may still have something to offer.
Potential Suitors
The Blackhawks are seemingly always looking to re-unite with names from their past glories, but the fit may not be one Stan Bowman is willing to try again. He looked sluggish and out of sorts, and got blown by on numerous occasion by the depth players of Nashville. That said, the team will likely need at least another defenseman on the roster, so it’s not impossible. But with Duncan Keith (34), Brent Seabrook (32), and Michal Rozsival (38) already making up half the defense, do they really want to get older still?
Oduya hasn’t been definitively linked to practically anyone. It’s quite possible he’s holding on to see what opens up as teams enter training camp. Teams like the Washington Capitals, Philadelphia Flyers, and Los Angeles Kings could use another 6/7, and would be on the hunt for a bargain. The New Jersey Devils of course completely lacking on the back-end, and might want a mentor for 22 year olds Mirco Mueller, Damon Severson, and Michael Kapla. In truth, a good 50% of the league that could afford to take a chance on him for a single season, but the question remains, who will?
Ultimately, we aren’t likely to hear much chatter on this front until the arbitration period has passed. Teams want to have their organizational contracts set in stone before offering a contract to what will ultimately amount to a stop-gap defender solution.
Projected Contract
Last month, we projected a one-year, $2.5MM deal for Oduya back with Chicago, but they certainly no longer have him in their plans. We had him ranked at a respectable 32nd in a weak UFA class, but even that may have been overestimating his remaining value around the league. Oduya will likely have to settle for a one-year deal to prove he still “has it”, and the monetary value of that contract will be far less. He could always decide to play in Europe, but at the bare minimum he’ll attract at PTO, much like Cody Franson. If he does sign before the end of summer, it will likely be for under $1 MM, quite the paycut from his 2016-17 AAV of $3.75 MM.
Free Agent Profile: The Goalie Market
More than three weeks into free agency, there are still several big names available on the market. Among PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents, you can still find Thomas Vanek (#8), Jaromir Jagr (#13), Andrei Markov (#14), Drew Stafford (#21), Cody Franson (#22), and many more without NHL homes. What you can’t find is a single goalie on that list left unsigned. In fact, you would be hard pressed to find a single free agent goaltender that the casual hockey fan would recognize.
The following is list of available keepers who were on NHL contracts in 2016-17: Daniel Altshuller, Mantas Armalis, Sam Brittain, Mac Carruth, Ryan Faragher, Michael Garteig, Jonas Gunnarsson, Matt Hackett, Jake Paterson, Mackenzie Skapski, Colin Stevens, and Stephon Williams. Are none of those names standing out? They shouldn’t. Not one of those 13 players made a single NHL appearance last season and only Altshuller, Brittain, and Garteig even sat on an NHL bench. Of the group, only Hackett and Skapski have ever played in the NHL and neither one has suited up since 2014-15. The group leaves little to be desired.
This could explain why many other teams have decided to reach overseas for goalie depth this off-season, with the Nashville Predators bringing back Anders Lindback, the Minnesota Wild signing Niklas Svedberg, the Vegas Golden Knights signing Oscar Dansk, the Florida Panthers signing Harri Sateri and, most recently, the New York Rangers bringing in young Alexander Georgiev. Yet, even the foreign market is drying up. The top leagues in Sweden and Switzerland have nothing to offer net-needy NHL team, while the best remaining free agent goalies in the KHL and Finnish Liiga are 37-year-old Alexander Yeryomenko and 34-year-old Pekka Tuokkola respectively. Other KHL free agents like Riku Helenius, Drew MacIntyre, Justin Pogge, and Kevin Poulin are all former NHL wash-outs themselves who have done little to improve their stock overseas and don’t present much of an upgrade over many of the North American options.
So which keepers are the best of this rag-tag bunch? The short answer is that none are ready to make NHL starts any time soon. Every NHL free agent either spent time in the ECHL in 2016-17 or should have because of unsightly AHL numbers, whereas none of the KHL free agents were particularly impressive this past season either.
Poulin is the most likely of any to earn an NHL contract for next season, as he has more NHL experience than everyone else on this list put together – with just 50 appearances. The 27-year-old went back and forth between the New York Islanders, who drafted him in 2008, and their AHL affiliate, the Bridgeport Sound Tigers, from 2010 to 2015. In that time, Poulin had an 18-25-3 record with an .899 save percentage and 3.07 GAA. While it isn’t the best NHL stat line, it isn’t the worst either. Outside of the NHL, Poulin has always posted a save percentage of .909 or better, including a .909 exact and 2.66 GAA with Barys Astana of the KHL last year. For a team in need of a goalie, even just for AHL depth, Poulin isn’t a terrible option.
Hackett would be next on the list and also has the second-most NHL games played. Once considered the “goalie of the future” for the Minnesota Wild after a spectacular rookie season in 2011-12, the now 27-year-old’s career has gone in the opposite direction. Pedestrian play in the AHL and inconsistency in his NHL efforts took Hackett out of the running as an NHL starter, but he’s still been able to find work as a third-string backup after Minnesota with the Buffalo Sabres and Anaheim Ducks. Even after an AHL season where he was passed up on the depth chart, saw only seven games of action, and posted poor numbers, Hackett still seems like a safe bet to find a new deal somewhere.
Beyond Poulin and Hackett, a contract for any of the other free agent goalies would come as a surprise. At 23 years old, Paterson is the youngest of the free agents and has put up strong numbers in each of his first two pro seasons. However, those numbers have come in the ECHL rather than the AHL. Paterson’s junior numbers in the OHL aren’t spectacular, so the competition level of the ECHL may simply be where he’s best suited. Nevertheless, he has the most room to grow of anyone available. On the flip side, the 37-year-old Russian keeper Yeryomenko is by far the most talented goalie available statistically. The KHL veteran was arguably the best goalie in the league last year, posting a .950 save percentage and 1.29 GAA in 37 starts. There is no reason to think that Yeryomenko is eyeing a move overseas at this point in his career nor that he could adjust to the NHL’s pace of play at his age, but if he is open to it, he could be a low-risk gamble as a stop-gap veteran backup in the AHL for some team.
Potential Suitors
Luckily, most NHL teams are not in dire straits in net that they should have to be taking a long look at the current free agent market. Nearly every viable name has already been scooped up and few teams have a pressing need. However, it never hurts to have several fallback options in net, and even teams with three or four solid players can end up scooping up that one extra keeper as the off-season goes on.
The one team that really must make a move is the Columbus Blue Jackets. Yes, they have the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, Sergei Bobrovsky, and promising young backup Joonas Korpisalo, but after trading Anton Forsberg away this summer, the Blue Jackets are lacking in depth. The only other goalie under contract is Matiss Kivlenieks, who is entering his first pro season out of the USHL. Kivlenieks is probably not suited to even start at the AHL level yet, nevertheless be the next man up for Columbus. The Blue Jackets could stand to add two goalie even, though their need is great enough that they could be scouring the trade market instead for their third-stringer.
Even after replacing Ryan Miller with Anders Nilsson in free agency, the Vancouver Canucks could still use another goalie. Thatcher Demko is a stud prospect and ready to carry the bulk of AHL starts, and Richard Bachman is a good veteran AHL option capable of making an NHL spot start too. However, should Jacob Markstrom or Nilsson, both injury-prone and relatively new to their 2017-18 roles, struggle or be sidelined, Demko or possibly Bachman will be ready to go, but without much reliable backup depth in Utica. Vancouver could simply re-sign Garteig, who was in the system last year, but may want to go with a superior talent given the unproven nature of their top three goalies at the NHL level.
Expected Contract
It might be a stretch to assume that any of the goalies remaining on the free agent market, NHL or international, will sign an NHL deal this summer. If they do, it will surely be a one-year, two-way deal worth the minimum $650K or simply a minor league AHL deal. There’s not much left to offer on the market, but with some holes still in need of filling across the league, understanding the strengths and many, many weaknesses of the goalie market could help to make sense of any upcoming deals.
Snapshots: Schmidt, Saad, Hossa
The Vegas Golden Knights have had a busy off-season in the lead-up to their first NHL season, and Gary Lawless laid out some of what still lies ahead for the fledgling franchise. Most notably, the team has to sign RFA Nate Schmidt, the former Washington defenseman who showed great promise as a productive player. PHR’s Gavin Lee touched on the reportedly productive manner of the talks a few days back, but he is one of the more intriguing names left on the arbitration docket. Schmidt will likely be a pivotal piece of their defense for years, as the team resisted trading him away to teams desperate for defensive help, opting instead to move older names.
Schmidt shouldn’t be too expensive in arbitration, as he only has 43 points through 200 career games. Still, Vegas seems intent to lock him up on a longer deal, and considering that they’ve cleared their focus of other distractions, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a deal get done soon. If the parties come to an agreement, it would likely be above the $3 MM mark.
- Sports Illustrated ran an interesting piece highlighting the Blackhawks’ strategy of re-acquiring old players. Brandon Saad in particular sounds thrilled to be back in Chicago with Coach Joel Quenneville. Saad had two 53-point seasons in Columbus, but at only 24, he still has room to improve. It sounds like the plan is to re-unite him with captain Jonathan Toews, to try to spark the captain with a familiar linemate. Toews ended the season with a respectable 21 goals and 58 points, but struggled mightily to score for long stretches of time before a stellar home stretch. Saad will have big shoes to fill to replace the incredibly dynamic Artemi Panarin, however, and Patrick Kane‘s line will likely see a huge hit in production in order to achieve greater balance in the lineup.
- After the announcement that Marian Hossa is indefinitely sidelined due to a degenerate skin disorder, Blackhawks players unsurprisingly see the situation as “heartbreaking”. Hossa will not skate in 2017-18 due his medical need to discontinue NHL play. Hossa has a solid case for the Hall of Fame when he decides to retire, and being an important part of three Cup-winning teams, his loss is hard to calculate prior to the start of the season. Saad’s return may help fill some of that void, especially with Toews, but his production still will be near impossible to replace internally. More than that, however, he was arguably Blackhawks’ best defensive forward, backchecking consistently and with purpose. It will be interesting to see how the stretched-thin defense, minus Niklas Hjalmarsson, copes with one less Selke-caliber forward assisting their efforts.
Arbitration Breakdown: Brian Dumoulin
With the reports of a huge financial gap between the two parties, it seems quite likely that Brian Dumoulin will reach his arbitration date. Whether the team can hammer out a deal before needing to accept that decision remains to be seen. They are still far apart in terms of value according to Elliotte Friedman, as the team only offered $1.95 MM compared to his agent’s number of $4.35 MM. Dumoulin has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh for their two Stanley Cup runs, but he has a difficult quantitative case to make to earn the money he is seeking.
The Numbers
Dumoulin was huge in the absence of Kris Letang. When the Penguins’ top defender was again sidelined to injury, Dumoulin’s ice-time skyrocketed to first-pairing usage. He finished the season with an average ice time of 20:33, but often saw far more down the stretch. In the playoffs, he averaged 21:59. Those are the numbers of an upper echelon second-pairing defenseman, but when you consider that he almost never sees powerplay time, and the defensive situations he is trusted in, he’s a borderline top-pairing player.
Dumoulin isn’t an offensive force in any regard. He’s only tallied 33 points through his 163 regular season games played, and 3 of his 5 career goals come from post-season action. Still, he can move the puck with relative efficiency and can be relied on to tally a little under 20 assists a season.
Dumoulin faces tough quality-of-competition, and that will be his biggest argument for the compensation he is seeking. However, his Corsi and Fenwick, the most utilized advanced statistics, don’t show improvement for the player last year. When these stats are taken without context, Dumoulin’s 2016-17 playoffs was his worst outing to date. He had a brutal 41.2% Corsi For through 25 post-season contests, down from his 2015-16 run’s 52.8%. His regular season totals showed a less drastic ‘decline’, but the tougher minutes and far greater shots allowed team-wide brought his advanced statistics back down to merely average. He has shots blocked (99) and penalty killing prowess to turn to, but those are difficult figures to primarily base a case for a raise upon.
Potential Comparables
Here are some comparable players and their contracts.
Travis Hamonic (Calgary) – Although it may seem an odd comparison to some, the underlying numbers for these players aren’t dissimilar. Both have never broken 5 goals in a season and neither scores a particularly impressive amount of points. They are physical without being intimaditing and can skate well enough to survive in today’s NHL. They both block shots with consistency and contribute over 20 minutes of icetime a night. Hamonic signed his long-term deal worth $3.86 MM all the way back in 2013, which was a bit of an overpayment at the time in hopes of keeping the AAV down as he progressed. This seems a little under what most players with the skillset are looking for in 2017, but it’s an interesting parallel.
Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders) – Dumoulin’s contract will be a bit of a barometer for the Isles’ de Haan, as it will show the direction the arbiters are leaning on not-so-flashy defenders. As the only other RFA defenseman other than Vegas’ Nate Schmidt likely to earn more than $2 MM, de Haan and the Islanders will be watching the outcome of this case to determine who has greater leverage. De Haan still has great upside, but has played in a far more sheltered role on a deep defense.
Cody Ceci (Ottawa) – Ceci is not considered to be quite the asset that Dumoulin is, but seeing as his contract was awarded merely a year ago, this sort of bargain is what the Penguins are likely aiming toward. Ceci signed a two-year deal worth only $2.8 MM a season, after a 10 goal, 26 point season where he averaged nearly 19 minutes a night. Dumoulin has never seen that kind of production, but up until last season comparatively played against greater competition. Ceci is due for another arbitration hearing at the conclusion of the 2017-18 campaign, as his past contract was a sort of bridge deal.
Jacob Trouba (Winnipeg) – Again, another bargain for a defenseman that was handed out last season. Trouba’s negotiations dragged on into the regular season, before he finally accepted a two-year agreement, with the first year at $3.31 MM and the second year at $2.81 MM. Trouba is much more offensive than Dumoulin, but has generally seen more icetime and a similar difficulty of competition. Just like the Penguins, there was a large degree of disagreement in the financial value of the player between the organization and the agent. Dumoulin has championship pedigree to tout at his hearing, however, whereas Trouba was largely banking on his potential as a former first-rounder.
Projection
Dumoulin is an interesting case because he is undoubtedly an integral piece of the Pittsburgh blueline, but has little outside of truly advanced statistics to prove his case. How much will their championship runs inflate his value? How much is a stay-at-home defender worth, especially when his possession numbers have taken a hit?
Ultimately, if Dumoulin were a UFA rather than a RFA, he’d easily attract contract offers around $5 MM. As an RFA however, his predecessors haven’t seen a whole lot of success in proving their case. Shots blocked and plus minus are nice, but considering the trend of the league, they are not going to benefit his standing all that much. A lot of Dumoulin’s value is hard to quantify, and there’s the very real possibility that his bargaining position suffers as a result. Ultimately, his exposure in two long playoff runs will bring his value back to a fairer mark, and he will earn far more than the team’s ask of $1.9 MM. Somewhere in the range of $3 MM seems the likely award if the arbitration decision is actually needed. However, it’s unlikely that the parties don’t come to a longer-term agreement before that time. The Penguins need to lock him down as part of their defense, and a multi-year contract at around $4 MM is probable. GM Jim Rutherford will likely posture til the last conceivable minute, but his internal value is far too great to risk him walking in summer free agency in the next two years.
Blackhawks Notes: Sharp, Saad, DeBrincat
The Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus (along with various Chicago media) tweeted quite a bit from the beginning of the Blackhawks Fan Convention as players and personnel were available to the media. It was a reunion of sorts as two former players returned to field questions. Patrick Sharp returns to the place where he saw much success, saying that he had some of his “best years” playing for Joel Quenneville in Chicago. Lazerus tweets that Quenneville could use Sharp with Jonathan Toews, and to expect the veteran winger to see top six minutes, which may not thrill some fans. Brandon Saad confirmed that he would be on a line with Toews, which was the belief of many after Stan Bowman swung a deal to re-acquire the forward. The Athletic’s Scott Powers tweeted video of different interviews which included Quenneville, Patrick Kane talking about the Panarin trade, and Sharp’s return to Chicago.
- Several hockey analysts are “tapping the brakes” when declaring Blackhawks prospect Alex DeBrincat as the next big thing. The Hockey News’ Jared Clinton and Chicago SportsNet’s Tracey Myers both covered this, with Clinton adding onto Myers’ analysis. First, the salary cap limits who the Hawks can add to the roster, and the only player as of now who can shuffle to the AHL without passing through waivers is Nick Schmaltz. Should Marian Hossa go onto the LTIR, more than enough money would be available for many in Rockford to go onto the roster. Second, head coach Joel Quenneville isn’t exactly one to hand out ice time to kids. Clinton notes that DeBrincat is only 19, and the only players under 21 to see significant ice time during Quenneville’s tenure were Kane and Toews. Of course, Clinton notes, Toews was the captain and Kane was a budding superstar. Further, Clinton writes that Schmaltz, considered one of Chicago’s best prospects, struggled to stay in the lineup last season, showing that cracking the NHL lineup and then staying on it is far more difficult than it appears. Realistically, Clinton believes that the Hawks have the luxury to “over-season” players and allow them time to grow into a role–something that DeBrincat may very well do.
Odd Defenseman Out In Vegas
Although some of this might be attributed to wishful thinking, the Edmonton Journal’s David Staples openly wonders whether Griffin Reinhart could find his way back to Edmonton. This comes only a day after Reinhart was signed to a reasonable $800,000 deal for two-years in Vegas. Staples wonders whether the excess of defense on the left side will force Vegas to place Reinhart on waivers in an attempt to send him to the AHL. He surmises, probably correctly, that GM Peter Chiarelli would take another gamble on the player if it were to get that far. It seems incredibly unlikely he would make it to Edmonton’s position in the waiver wire, however, as many worse franchises would likely place a claim. It’s even less likely that Vegas management would risk losing that sort of asset for nothing in the first place.
Reinhart is unlikely to make an Edmonton return, but it’s not totally inconceivable that he’d be the odd man out in Vegas. The team went heavy on defense in the expansion draft, and odds are that they will eventually lose someone to the waiver wire if they can’t maneuver more moves. Once Nate Schmidt is signed, they’ll have 11 defensemen on the NHL roster, and that’s if Erik Brannstrom doesn’t make the big squad. Even assuming the Golden Knights can trade two more players, they’re not likely to carry more than 8 defensemen. Someone will be sacrificed to waivers unless GM George McPhee can pull some magic before the start of the season.
The most aged players include Jason Garrison (32), who has a no-trade clause, Deryk Engelland (35), Luca Sbisa (27), and Clayton Stoner (32). Brayden McNabb, Colin Miller, Schmidt, and Shea Theodore will likely constitute the team’s future defense, and it might be difficult for Reinhart to crack that group. Brad Hunt and Jon Merrill are the least likely to attract any major attention if they were to be waived, so there is no necessity to start floundering yet. Hunt in particular would pass with almost no difficulty, as the 5’9, 28-year old defender hasn’t been overly impressive in his 33 career NHL games. Still, depending on who else is moved and whether Reinhart makes an impact at training camp, he could be seen as a non-core piece. McPhee will need to make a determination as to who will be getting major playing time, considering that at this moment things are far too crowded for the younger players to shine.
McNabb, Schmidt, and Miller seem the safest for the moment, but anything can happen. The right side has to be a concern, as only Engelland and Miller naturally play that position. As for now, we’ll have to wait and see who gets unloaded for picks and future assets, and whether they will be much difficulty in doing so. It seems unlikely that Vegas would move Reinhart, a young piece who they just re-signed, considering that if nothing else he can fill a 7th or 8th defensive position. Sbisa and Stoner seem to be the most likely to move out to a team starved for defensive depth, especially considering their contracts are each only good for one more season.
Wild Still Searching For Right Offensive Mix
Perhaps a bit buried in Elliotte Friedman’s always phenomenal 30 Thoughts for Sportsnet, the Minnesota Wild may not yet be done performing “roster surgery” up front. They added Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno while subtracting Jason Pominville and Marco Scandella, but that may merely be the beginning of a season-long search for more dynamic and hard-nosed offensive players. Pominville himself is no slouch in terms of playmaking, so with his subtraction the team could still be on the hunt for something more.
Like a lot of other teams who were heavy competitors last season, the Wild have little cap space to play with. With RFAs Mikael Granlund and Nino Niederreiter looking to consume much of that $15.79 MM the team currently has, they will likely end up with a $3 MM buffer, or slightly less to sign 4 roster players. It’s not a lot to add a huge name, but there are capable offensive players out there who could be acquired on the cheap. The organization prides itself on solid defensive play, but Thomas Vanek is a sure bet to pot quite a few goals. Jaromir Jagr is a still dynamic possession monster and could provide a boost if he were to take his seemingly inevitable paycut.
It looks probable that Minnesota will keep their options open on the trade market. If they didn’t like what July 1st offered, there are options available. Toronto’s James van Riemsdyk is supposedly available and could fit the mold of what the offense is trying to accomplish. Detroit’s Gustav Nyquist isn’t exactly a bruiser either but he would come cheap, or GM Chuck Fletcher could take a gamble on an older player in a struggles-for-struggles swap. There are plenty of teams that would be interested in Eric Staal, but it would be tough to fill that center hole internally. Their defense remains their greatest asset, and moving Jared Spurgeon is still a possibility, but do they trust Mike Reilly or Kyle Quincey to slot up if need be? The team could even opt to move Neiderreiter if another team is highly intrigued by his upside and they see a hockey deal.
Most likely, the Wild will resign themselves to simply adapting their offensive strategies after being absolutely shut down in the playoffs by St. Louis’ Jake Allen. 6 goals in 5 games while heavily out-shooting the opposition, cannot merely be blamed on poor luck and a hot goalie. The team will need its forwards to penetrate the tough areas of the ice more reliably and discourage perimeter play. Foligno is definitely a step in the right direction on that front, but look for Fletcher to add more grit and production up front, whether at the deadline or over the course of the year
Shero May Not Be Done Dealing
The New Jersey Devils have had a phenomenal off-season by every measure. They lucked into the 1st overall pick and locked up Nico Hischier. They acquired Marcus Johansson for pennies on the dollar. They’ve shed salaries and ditched older, under-performing players. They bought out Mike Cammalleri and Devante Smith-Pelly for measly penalties and are embracing a full rebuild. About the only thing that could have gone better is if Ilya Kovalchuk‘s rights were dealt for a king’s ransom.
According to Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe, GM Ray Shero may not be done in trying to improve his team. Obviously, he needs to round out his depth, as there are only 34 contracts locked up, and the bottom lines and AHL need filling out. He also needs to re-sign RFAs Damon Severson, Stefan Noesen, Joseph Blandisi, and 6 others. Still, his team will find itself in the bottom 5 teams in cap expenditure, with $19.42 MM in space before any of these lesser signings. That leaves the management plenty of room to manuever.
Shinzawa suggests that Shero may utilize his relationship with Nashville GM David Poile to secure some extra scoring, considering the hefty sums they will need to hand out to RFAs Viktor Arvidsson and Ryan Johansen. While this is a possibility, it’s hard to see which contract Nashville would be willing to move. It’s perhaps more likely that Shero pursues a young defenseman. Anaheim still has a wealth of talent, and if they wanted to go the more aged route, Detroit is in a financial bind on the backend. Another name which might confuse some but who has a long relationship with Shero is Penguins’ D Olli Maatta. Maatta has vastly underperformed since signing his contract extension in Pittsburgh, and for the right price could be available. Vegas is still very willing to negotiate hockey deals, and their promising defenseman include the likes of Colin Miller and Shea Theodore.
Shero’s best ally right now is the cap crunch other teams are feeling. A productive forward could be sniped from Toronto on the cheap, and Chicago still needs to shed money somewhere along the line if the Marian Hossa LTIR situation goes south. He’s known primarily for his trade prowess which helped solidify the 2009 championship team in Pittsburgh, and it wouldn’t be out of character for him to again heavily work the phones. Hischier will need some sort of support, as the roster as it stands, while better than last year, is still incredibly lean.
Oshie Contract A Huge Gamble
When the Washington Capitals opted to re-sign T.J. Oshie to a $5.75 MM AAV for the next seven years, the hockey world was rightfully befuddled. Most expected Karl Alzner, Justin Williams and Oshie to depart, while the team locked up Evgeny Kuznetsov and retained other important pieces. Some anticipated the possible exposure or dumping of Brooks Orpik and his $5.5 MM for the next two seasons. Instead, the Capitals decided to pay the 30 year old Oshie to an extraordinarily long deal.
Oshie has indeed been one of the best wingers in the game over the last few seasons. He’s broken 50 points each of the last four campaigns, and his production on the powerplay has been incredibly valuable in maintaining high-octane offense. He’s also performed admirably in the post-season on a team where quite a few other individuals have fallen short. 22 of his 31 post-season points have come with Washington in just the last two years. That said, he will be 37 at the conclusion of this deal. It’s almost unheard of to maintain the production or speed you had at 30 when you are 37. Oshie’s decline could come as soon as the next few seasons. Oshie easily could have gotten this term on the open market as the best available winger, but is it wise to invest so heavily in this particular player?
In an off-season where many teams opted to go with shorter-term on unrestricted free agents, Oshie’s contract stands out as a future potential albatross. But how much will it impact Washington’s window? Well, the short answer is that we won’t know until the team finds itself playing games next spring.
Oshie’s signing, in conjunction with the Kuznetzov signing, forced the movement of Marcus Johansson from the roster. Johansson actually scored more points than Oshie last year, and his game is more well-rounded. Oshie’s Corsi For % has consistently declined over the last two seasons in Washington, Johansson’s has increased. Although Oshie has greater creativity and flash, Johansson has been a consistent performer of late, and had two years remaining on a very reasonable $4.58 MM contract. Perhaps more importantly, Johansson is four years Oshie’s junior. On a team that will need to fill gaps internally, going with the younger player is not often the wrong decision. Especially with losing both Nate Schmidt and Alzner on the backend, they will need younger players to contribute at every position in relief this season.
Ultimately, this decision will be judged in terms of post-season success. Still, when the team has lost two top-six wingers and a top pairing defenseman, it’s hard not to question the management’s handling of the situation. Alex Ovechkin and crew are still looking for a conference finals berth, and taking such steps backwards in the Metropolitan Division can only draw fire from an increasingly frustrated fanbase.