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RFAs Headed For Payday In Arbitration

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As the list of the players who have filed for arbitration was released earlier today by the NHLPA, a few names stick out as those due a meaningful raise. Arbitration is a tricky process to reliably predict, but it’s a safe bet these names will see their cap hit rise substantially.

 

Brian Dumoulin – D – Pittsburgh Penguins

There was a time when the young Dumoulin was a well-kept secret in the league, overshadowed by the far flashier play of Kris Letang. Dumoulin’s accolades this last playoff year certainly didn’t go unnoticed, and as the lone defensive defenseman in their core group, he probably holds the greatest job security on the team’s blueline. He doesn’t put up points – only one goal in the last two seasons, but he blocks shots and drives possession while eating a ton of minutes against top competition. As analytics are utilized more and more, his case only gets stronger. A contract well over $4 MM is certainly looking possible.

Colton Parayko – D – St. Louis Blues

This is the name seen most commonly associated with offer-sheets this summer, and with good reason. Parayko plays with the mentality of an old-time defenseman, but he can skate quite well for a large (6’6) man. He’s only had two seasons in the NHL, but he’s impressed since he first took the ice. Again, he isn’t a massive offensive force (he scored 3 goals last season), but he’s already averaging over 21 minutes a night with near equal starts in both the offensive and defensive zone. He’ll be hurt by the quantifiable stats factor, but he’s a big body with a rare right-handed shot to boot. This contract could look relatively cheap compared to his next, if he continues along this course. He should cost around $5.5 MM.

Ondrej Palat – F – Tampa Bay Lightning

Others will look to the undersized center Tyler Johnson as most likely to get a payday. But don’t over look Palat’s consistency – it may give him an edge with arbiters. Johnson does have his 72 point campaign to lean on, but that was now two full seasons ago. The fact that both players couldn’t break 20 goals in the last two seasons will bring their prices back down to Earth. Palat has grown into his role on the team and back-checks with a ferocity not often seen in younger stars. Johnson is no slouch either – they’ve both accumulated Selke votes over the years. These are two pivotal pieces of the Lightning, and their upcoming contracts were a big reason Jonathan Drouin was traded away to Montreal. GM Steve Yzerman will happily lock both up, but he will be hoping for figures under the $6 MM mark.

Viktor Arvidsson – F – Nashville Predators

This would have been an unlikely name on such a list even last December, when you consider how truly meteoric Arvidsson’s rise was. His value in arbitration will be deeply interesting – the shifty winger has played himself into the core of the team within a season. He really only has 2016-17 and the long playoff run to hang his hat on, as he scored only 16 points through 56 games in 2015-16. This year was a remarkable offensive explosion, with 30 goals and 31 assists. At only 5’9, Arvidsson has really shocked many onlookers by how easily he’s adapted to the physicality of the NHL game. His talent has never been in question, and with his production now well-established, it’s safe to believe he’s going to get a cushy award. How bad the damage will be is going to affect Nashville’s cap going forward – I suspect over $5 MM, but there are few comparables.

Mikael Granlund – F – Minnesota Wild

Granlund is perhaps slightly more enticing league wide than fellow Wild RFA Nino Niederreiter. He’s a marginally more cerebral player, and he plays the valuable center position. Neiderreiter is the more natural goal-scorer and larger frame, but Granlund has better PPG and has broken 30 assists thrice. Both players will get paid, as they both broke 25 goals last season and will be important pieces in the State of Hockey for some time. I think the more interesting thing to watch here is whether the Wild play it safe with Granlund and take a one year deal, or attempt to lock him up for longer. This was the first season he really scored with any consistency, but the Wild have shown their faith in the player by continually giving him over 17 minutes of icetime even when he struggled to produce. A one-year would easily command over $5 MM, whereas a longer deal could bring cost down.

 

Snapshots: Franson, Cheveldayoff, Marleau

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We’re still all quiet on the Cody Franson front, which has many analysts stumped. Franson is a decent possession player when you look at career Corsi and Fenwick. He’s the youngest “big name” defenseman left un-signed in unrestricted free agency. He played 68 games for the Buffalo Sabres, who were admittedly porous defensively, but finished with a minus 5 on a team where no one broke a plus 3. What’s most intriguing is his ability to skate combined with his overall size – 6’5 and 224 pounds. Franson also has a right-handed shot from the point, something many teams are lacking and actively seeking. He’s the prototype for a #4 defenseman in today’s NHL, and at only 30, has more hockey left in him. There’s been nearly no smoke around this player as we finish the third day of free agency, and that alone is befuddling.

  • Winnipeg GM Kevin Cheveldayoff believes his Jets “are a cap team now”, and he’s willing to spend accordingly per Postmedia’s Ken Weibe. Cheveldayoff has been infamous league-wide for his reluctance to make too many roster moves – it took him the better part of three seasons to even make a trade. That said, he seems to be embracing a more proactive role in management. On July 1st he signed defensemen Dimitri Kulikov and goaltender Steve Mason to expensive contracts, and moved on from veterans Chris Thorburn and Mark Stuart. With his core players entering their primes, the time to compete is apparently now.
  • Patrick Marleau had a quality radio interview with TSN 1050 Toronto earlier this evening. There were a few good quotes that resulted, but nothing out of the ordinary. Perhaps the most humorous moment in the segment was when Marleau insisted that he’s still “full of (pee) and vinegar…just like these kids”. Marleau apparently mulled over the decision for more than a week, weighing the pros and cons of the decision to move on from San Jose, the only franchise he’s ever played for. Ultimately, he cited his confidence in the management team, the exciting younger players in Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, and the aggressiveness of the team to compete right away as reasons which tilted the scales in favor of the Leafs. The third year on the contract offer, which will take him to age 40, probably provided him lots of incentive, as well.

Galchenyuk Negotiations Intensify

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Alex Galchenyuk has suddenly gone from pariah to absolute necessity. In the wake of losing top scoring threat Alexander Radulov via free agency to the Dallas Stars, Galchenyuk, a restricted free agent, has seen his internal value skyrocket. Radulov, of course, signed with the Stars earlier today for 5 seasons, and the Montreal offense was already severely lacking. Galchenyuk had a respectable 44 points in only 61 games last season, but that was a marginal drop from his 30-goal, 56-point campaign the year prior.

One of the largest issues for Galchenyuk this last season was consistency in his production, and many link that to his constant switching between the center and left wing roles. Galchenyuk is a more natural center, and has stated as such on numerous occasions. His defensive play has left many fans wanting, however. Two separate coaching staffs placed him on the wing at different points, and the organization has stated pretty clearly that he isn’t ready for top-line center duties. The problem for Montreal of course, is that they don’t have anyone else nearly as capable to fill that role. Tomas Plekanec is another year older and Galchenyuk is already arguably the better player. With Radulov (a right-wing) out of the picture, it might be wise to keep Galchenyuk content and comfortable.

According to Darren Dreger, Galchenyuk’s agent Pat Brisson has been in contact with GM Marc Bergevin, who will now turn his attention primarily to this contract. If they can’t come to an agreement, arbitration is always an option that can be utilized. That said, arbitration would probably only serve to fan the flames that have surrounded this player since he was supposedly placed on the block a year ago. Those flames are still not going out until that contract has been signed, and there will always be a market for young, talented centers.

When Jonathan Drouin was acquired for the left side, it seemed as though the writing was on the wall. But now, with Radulov out of the picture, losing Galchenyuk’s top-six offensive abilities would be a massive blow to the team. Montreal finished 13th in Goals For, but only two players hit the 20 goal mark – Max Pacioretty (35) and Paul Byron (22). Losing their top assist man and second-leading point getter in Radulov, it would be entirely devastating to draw the Galchenyuk negotiations out into the season, or worse, to trade him following a down year. Galchenyuk and his agent know they have the leverage in negotiations, and there’s a strong possibility they’ll use every ounce of it to get a better deal for the 23-year-old talent. Considering his production and league wide comparisons, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see him make well above $5 MM.

Joe Thornton Re-Signs With San Jose Sharks

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July 2: The Sharks have officially announced the signing.  His agency, Top Shelf Hockey, reports via Twitter that Thornton will earn $8MM in 2017-18.  TSN’s Pierre LeBrun adds (Twitter link) that the base salary is $6.75MM while he gets a $1.25MM signing bonus as well.

July 1: After all of the rumor and intrigue surrounding “Jumbo” Joe Thornton seeking a three-year deal and speaking with many teams other than the San Jose Sharks, NBC Sports’ California correspondent Kevin Kurz is reporting that Thornton has actually re-signed in San Jose for just one year. According to Bob McKenzie, the deal is worth more than $6 MM, and Fox Sports Northwest’s Andy Strickland has the exact total at $6.5 MM. This is nowhere near the paycut many experts expected from his previous $6.75 MM. In a weak UFA class, however, he ended up getting more AAV than many of the larger names out there.

The probable future Hall-of-Fame center has 1007 career assists, good for 13th all time. He only had 7 goals last season make up his 50 points in 2016-17, however, his lowest total in a full season. It was anticipated by many that perhaps fellow long-time shark Patrick Marleau would sign first, but the offer from San Jose and the allure of home was too much to keep Thornton from signing on the dotted line.

Thornton is obviously slowing down a step, but he is still one of the best playmakers in the game. His work on the powerplay is masterful and he has jump-started many younger players’ careers. On a one-year deal, there seems to be little downside to the Sharks, as he can still be a productive member of a top-9 offensive unit while providing solid defensive play. The price is a bit high, and it remains to be seen whether that will affect any potential negotiations with Marleau.

Sabres Sign Jacob Josefson

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The Buffalo Sabres have signed 26-year old center and former Devil Jacob Josefson to  a one-year deal, according to TSN’s Ryan Rishaug. The contract is worth $700,000 and is a one-way contract.

Josefson struggled to find his place on a floundering New Jersey Devils squad, only playing for 38 total games and netting only 1 goal to accompany 9 assists. Josefson is a former first round pick from 2009, and has played his entire career in Jersey. His career offensive totals are very unimpressive, but he can provide solid two-way depth to a fourth line. He generally finds himself starting in the defensive zone and until last year had always been a positive Corsi asset.

Buffalo is looking to fill out their lineup with players who are appealing in terms of advanced stats. Josefson is not going to be a negative influence on the ice and comes cheaply. Newly appointed GM Jason Botterill has been quite busy today with sneaky good signings, loading up his AHL affiliate Rochester Americans with  a number of players. Josefson will likely find a home as a 13 or 14th forward and will need to fight yet again for his icetime. Last season, he averaged only 12:15. His versatility will be a plus, as he can shift from center to wing with little difficulty.

Flyers Re-Sign Mike Vecchione

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If this headline seems familiar, that is because the Philadelphia Flyers did just sign major college free agent Mike Vecchione to his entry-level deal back in March. However, it was just a one-year contract with a promise attached to burn the year with play time in the NHL this past season. Now a restricted free agent, Vecchione is on to his second contract already, inking a two-year, $1.8MM deal with the Flyers. It is also a one-way contract, so Vecchione will be looked on to carve out a role in Philadelphia and could prove to be a major bargain at $900K.

Vecchione played in two NHL games in 2016-17, but saw only minimal ice time and did not record a point. A prolific scorer at Union College, Vecchione is expected to play a much greater role going forward. Scoring at a clip of nearly two points per game in the NCAA last year, if Vecchione’s small, speedy game translates, he could be dangerous for the Flyers right away.

In other small moves, the Flyers re-signed Corban Knight and brought in Ottawa Senators minor leaguer Phil Varone on two-year, two-way contracts this morning as well. Both Knight and Varone are veteran AHLers who add depth and experience to the Flyer’s group of call-up ready players.

Several Buyouts Before Deadline

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The deadline to buy out players is today, and several teams have taken advantage of the option before free agency starts. The following players have been placed on waivers for the purposes of a buyout: Mike Cammalleri (NJD), Devante Smith-Pelly (NJD), Mark Stuart (WIN), Lance Bouma (CGY), Ryan Murphy (CGY), Jimmy Hayes (BOS), Jussi Jokinen (FLA). The new cap hits of each player will be as follows:

Cammalleri:

2017-18: $1.67MM
2018-19: $1.67MM
2019-20: $1.67MM
2020-21: $1.67MM

Smith-Pelly:

2017-18: $175K
2018-19: $225K

Stuart:

2017-18: $1.46MM
2018-19: $583K

Bouma:

2017-18: $667K
2018-19: $767K

Murphy:

2017-18: $100K
2018-19: $138K

Hayes:

2017-18: $567K
2018-19: $867K

Jokinen:

2017-18: $1.33MM
2018-19: $1.33MM

Prospect Notes: Liljegren, Hischier, Makar

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The Athletic’s Sunaya Sapurji reports that defenseman Timothy Liljegren, Toronto’s 17th overall pick, will continue to play in the Swedish league and not join the Ontario Hockey League’s Niagara IceDogs, who selected him 12th in the CHL Import Draft. His North American agent, Peter Wallen, said that Liljegren’s camp felt that time with Niagara wouldn’t be the “perfect spot” to develop his talent. Wallen doubles down, saying that his client will “never play for Niagara.” Stating that the Leafs are “100 percent” in Liljegren’s plan to stay in Sweden, Wallen adds:

“He’s not coming to play for Niagara. It’s not even a question. And even if it was a question we would still need Toronto to sign him and then for Rogle to release him for him to play for anyone else but the Maple Leafs.”

Should the 18-year-old defenseman sign with the Leafs, he would be able to play for the AHL affiliate Marlies midseason due to the fact that he played in the Swedish Hockey League and not the junior leagues. Playing junior hockey would have restricted him from seeing time in the AHL or NHL due to an agreement between the NHL and CHL regarding the “jump” to the pros. Sapurji points out that Liljegren expressed his desire to stay in Sweden–regardless of where he was taken–prior to the draft.

June 23, 2017; Chicago, IL, USA; Timothy Liljegren poses for photos after being selected as the number seventeen overall pick to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round of the 2017 NHL Draft at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

  • First overall pick Nico Hischier was featured in a New York Times article yesterday, chronicling his journey to the NHL. The Times’ Dave Caldwell reports that the Swiss native saw his stock skyrocket after a strong world juniors performance while quietly sneaking up the ranks throughout the season. His strong play continued in the QMJHL with the Halifax Mooseheads. Described as being “very grounded,” by New Jersey Devils general manager Ray Shero, Hischier could very well take the NHL by storm as quietly–and quickly–as he did in juniors and on the world stage.
  • Some had Cale Makar as a possibility to go first overall, but he ended up going fourth to the Colorado Avalanche, which could be considered a steal down the road. Next on the list for the 18-year-old defenseman is time at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, where he will continue to hone his skills for a shot at the NHL. Makar calls it a “reality check” when speaking with NHL.com’s Rick Sadowski, and adds that it doesn’t matter what happened before in terms of his career. Saying that he wants to “round out” his game, Makar is confident that he is an eventual NHL product and that belief is shared by the Colorado brass. Alan Hepple, the Director of Amateur Scouting for Colorado, goes as far to say that Makar is the “generational player” teams seek in a defenseman.

All photographs courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Girardi Drawing Interest After Buy-Out

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Although he was just bought out by the New York Rangers due to meager performance relative to his pay, multiple NHL teams have shown interest in signing the 33 year-old. Detroit, who is supposedly in the middle of a rebuild, seem compelled to inquire, according to The Athletic’s Craig Custance. The Grand Rapids Griffins championship run will provide an infusion of youth who have won at the professional level, and yet the defense remains a primary concern for GM Ken Holland. Missing the playoffs for multiple seasons may not be palatable to an organization so accustomed to success. It’s uncertain as to where Girardi would slot if he did sign in Detroit. The Wings have 7 defenseman on the roster (when you include RFA Xavier Ouellet), and 4 of those have no-trade clauses.

Also heavily rumored are the Tampa Bay Lightning. Elliotte Friedman stated that the team reached out to the defender, and that it is unknown how that conversation went. Newsday’s Steve Zipay made the connection to current Bolt Ryan Callahan, himself an ex-New York Ranger, with whom Girardi has close ties. Tampa GM Steve Yzerman does seem to like the old-school defensemen, and the team does have only 4 blueliners under contract while they negotiate terms with Slater Koekkoek. The team was already linked to Kevin Shattenkirk via the Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith, and players such Brendan Smith and Karl Alzner could find a decent fit on a second pairing. There are certainly more marquee names available out there, but perhaps the prices will become too steep for Yzerman’s liking. Girardi would almost certainly come cheap, and Tampa seems destined to make a push in the Atlantic after a down season – so it’s not an undesirable location.

The market that has surfaced for Girardi is quite remarkable considering his circumstances. Girardi has had three consecutive poor possession seasons which crescendo-ed this year with an 8th-worst Corsi 5-0n-5 finish among all defenders. In a league which is heading in the direction of deeper, more encompassing analytics, Girardi seems to buck every trend out there. He is probably still an NHL defender, but his immobile brand of defense is losing effectiveness fast and his shot-blocking may be beginning to take a toll on his body. His skating is sub-par and his offensive capabilities are very limited. He’s a good penalty killer, but at even strength is generally a net-negative regardless of how sheltered his minutes are. Still, as a veteran on a cheap contract, he might be worth a flier to regain form on a short-term deal. With such a poor UFA offering, it seems he has some value left and should be able to find a new contract with little pain.

Free Agent Focus: Florida Panthers

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The free agent period is now less than one week away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of the Florida Panthers’ free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: D Alex Petrovic only had 1 goal and 13 assists last season, but his possession stats were remarkably solid among his peers at 50.8% Corsi For. He earned $1.05 MM on his last contract, and he is due at least a slight raise. His size (6’4″) and physicality is an important asset to round out the bottom pairings of the defensive corps, even if management isn’t expecting him to light the world on fire. D Mark Pysyk, also 25 years old, has shown a bit more potential. He has less of a shutdown presence, but makes up for it by contributing to the offense on occasion. He moves the puck well with a solid if unremarkable first pass – which in today’s possession-centric NHL tends to increase value. Pysyk still hasn’t put it all together, but he’ll be a useful cog for Florida going forward. Interestingly enough, Florida’s defense is so sparse that both Pysyk and Petrovic were protected.

Other RFA’s: G MacKenzie Weegar.

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Jaromir Jagr. Jagr is certainly on the downside of his career, but he still can produce points at a decent clip. He’s been a mainstay of the Panthers offense for the last two-and-a-half seasons. He only netted 16 goals, but added 30 assists to reach a reasonable 46 points. However, his contract was a tad overpriced for a 45 year old, at a $4 MM cap hit. Management apparently wants the veteran back on the squad next season according to a report by the Miami Herald’s George Richards. Richards states that the price would need to come down, but there is a solid chance he could get last year’s salary from another team desperate for production. If Florida truly wants to bring back the battle-tested winger (who sits 3rd in all-time goals), they will need to find room within their internal cap structure. His speed is certainly becoming an issue, and it remains to be seen how integral he is perceived internally.

F Thomas Vanek doesn’t look likely to make a return to the Sunshine State, as he is quite arguably the 4th best winger available after Alexander Radulov, Justin Williams, and Patrick Marleau. The chances of seeing Vanek seeing a contract similar to his $6.5 MM earned the last three seasons are almost completely non-existent, but he could easily fetch near $5 MM offer for multiple years from an offense-starved squad. Vanek did net 48 points last season, but he has the potential to do more. Vanek will almost surely find his kindest offers elsewhere. He only netted two goals in 20 games after being acquired from the Detroit Red Wings.

Other UFA’s: F Micheal Scarbossa, D Jakub Kindl, G Sam Brittain, F Kyle Rau, F Brody Sutter, G Adam Wilcox, F Chase Balisy, F Graham Black, F Paul Thompson, D Reece Scarlett, G Colin Stevens, F Steven Hodges, D Brent Regner.

Projected Cap Space: The Panthers do have slightly over $20 MM in cap space if they were to re-sign no one, but they are almost certain to re-sign Pysyck and Petrovic to short-term deals. Weegar has also been extended a qualifying offer, but it will likely be a two-way deal. Assuming they make a combined $4 MM, GM Dale Tallon will likely have about $16 MM in space with 16 roster players accounted for.  His main concern has to be solidifying the defense so a repeat of last year doesn’t happen. However, with Jon Marchessault and Reilly Smith inexplicably shipped to Vegas, and likely one of Jagr and Vanek headed to other destinations, Tallon needs to add solid secondary scoring. It’s expected that Florida will be active on July 1st and into the Summer, especially with so many expiring organizational contracts – they only have 26 of the allotted 50 as of today. The organization has tried to revamp on the fly, but they will need a remarkably successful summer to re-coup all that is being lost especially in light of the meager talent available in the UFA pool. The biggest money constraint is whatever ownership places the internal cap at, which is unbeknownst to the league at large.

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