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Milan Lucic

Edmonton Oilers Trying To Rid Themselves Of Milan Lucic

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When the Edmonton Oilers signed Milan Lucic to a seven-year, $42MM contract in the summer of 2016, he was expected to bring a big, tough presence to a team that had lacked it in the past. The power forward had been a 30-goal scorer in the past, and was still in his late-twenties and expected to be effective for several years. Today, as Lucic celebrates his 30th birthday, speculation has risen about his future in Edmonton.

On Edmonton radio today, Frank Seravalli of TSN reported that the Oilers are talking to other teams to try and trade Lucic and get rid of his contract:

My understanding, and the reason that Milan Lucic is on our [TSN Trade Bait] list, is from my understanding they’re trying and talking to teams about potentially taking another contract back—even if that means sweetening the pot with a pick or some other roster player in order to make it happen—they’re pushing, or at least doing their due diligence and working to move on from Milan Lucic if they can. I just don’t know if it’s going to happen with that much term left, it’s going to be a really tough one to do.

Lucic is coming off the worst full season of his career, with just 10 goals and 34 points in 82 games. Though still able to protect the puck and help his team out through the neutral zone, Lucic looked a step behind the play at times and unable to really assert himself in the offensive zone. His minutes were reduced in the latter part of the season, averaging just 13:41 in his final 15 games.

The Oilers could perhaps have an ace up their sleeve if they are truly trying to trade the big winger. On July 1st, Lucic is owed a $3.5MM signing bonus on what was a front-loaded contract, meaning any acquiring team will only need to pay him $22.5MM over the last five years of the contract. Though his cap hit of $6MM is still troublesome for several clubs in the league, a team with ample space might be more amenable to a player earning an average of just $4.5MM over the next several years. If the Oilers were to retain salary in the transaction, they could reduce that number even more.

There is of course the chance that Lucic bounces back from his terrible season. He hadn’t posted a full season without at least 42 points since his rookie year in 2007-08, and had scored 23 goals as recently as 2016-17. Though he may not be the high-end scoring player he once was, an effective third-line player for less than $4.5MM doesn’t seem so bad. If Edmonton can find a team that is willing to take on the money in exchange for that “sweetened pot,” perhaps there is a deal to be made. Otherwise, they’ll have to hope for that bounce back season on their own, and try to fit Lucic into a roster that desperately needs to get back to the playoffs in 2018-19.

Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?

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Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.

However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:

Total Flexibility

Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.

Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo’s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville’s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.

Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.

Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.

Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.

New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames

New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.

Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.

Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson’s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.

Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.

Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.

Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little’s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.

Some Flexibility

Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.

Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.

Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.

Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.

Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn’s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.

Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.

Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.

Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.

Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.

Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.

San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.

St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan’s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.

Little Flexibility

Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.

Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford’s contract expiring prior.

Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.

Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.

New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.

Peter Chiarelli Talks About Direction Of Edmonton Oilers

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The Edmonton Oilers’ season hasn’t gone as expected. After taking the Anaheim Ducks to Game 7 of the second round last year, the Oilers were expected to be a Stanley Cup contender and steamroll over the Pacific Division with a dynamic offense led by Connor McDavid. Instead, Edmonton has just 118 goals on the season and sits 13th in the Western Conference standings with just 39 points through 43 games.

Peter ChiarelliBecause of their struggles, head coach Todd McLellan’s name has been thrown around as a potential scapegoat, while GM Peter Chiarelli has felt some of that heat himself. Chiarelli said as much when speaking with TSN’s Ryan Rishaug today in a long interview that goes in detail on several topics.

Chiarelli once again stated that he would not be firing McLellan this season despite the struggles, and refuses to pin all of the blame on him or his coaching staff. Instead, the GM believes there has been a confluence of issues that have resulted in a poor record and the front office is still working out what exactly has gone wrong. With that, he wouldn’t reveal which direction the team will take at the trade deadline but admitted that a decision would have to be made soon.

Rishaug was quick to mention that McDavid’s entry-level contract is up after this season, at which point his cap hit will balloon to $12.5MM for the next eight years. With Leon Draisaitl already making $8.5MM this season, the Oilers will have trouble adding much in terms of free agency over the coming years. There simply won’t be much money to go around if they’re going to continue to lock up their homegrown talent while paying $21MM to their top two offensive talents.

The Oilers do have expiring assets that could be used as bait as the deadline approaches. Patrick Maroon, Mark Letestu and Mike Cammalleri are all unrestricted free agents at the end of the year and could be interesting additions for various clubs around the league. Beyond that, Ryan Strome, the player acquired in exchange for Jordan Eberle in the offseason (a topic that is broached by Rishaug in the interview) is a restricted free agent that could be viewed as another buy-low candidate for a rebuilding team. Strome is due a $3MM qualifying offer this summer and is arbitration eligible, making it possible that Edmonton can’t even afford him depending on how they view his value going forward.

Looking forward there is quite a number of unknowns in Edmonton. Cam Talbot is only signed through the 2018-19 season and has seen his play drop off this year, while is a trio of veterans with full no-move clauses and big cap hits. Milan Lucic, Andrei Sekera and Kris Russell are all on deals that take them through at least the 2020-21 season, and combine for a $15.5MM cap hit. Though each brings some value to the team, they can only be relied upon as complimentary players at this point in there careers.

It’s unclear which path Chiarelli will take at the deadline, and whether any core pieces will be moved out to try and send the team in a different direction next season. It does seem likely that if there isn’t a marked improvement at this point next year, Chiarelli’s seat might not just be hot, it might be gone.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

NHL Snapshots: MacDonald, Haula, Marchessault, Bennett

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The Philadelphia Flyers announced today that defenseman Andrew MacDonald will miss four to six weeks with a lower body injury. According to NHL.com’s Bill Meltzer, MacDonald stepped into a path of a slap shot from Edmonton’s Milan Lucic during a penalty killing shift of Saturday’s 2-1 victory over the Edmonton Oilers. It hit his knee and MacDonald suffered a deep bone bruise, according to CSN’s Tim Panaccio.

Despite the injury, MacDonald stayed in the game. In fact, after taking the hit and going down, he still forced himself to get up and help clear the puck. The 31-year-old blueliner had a dominant performance against the Oilers, as he recorded three shots on goal, six blocked shots and played the second-most minutes on the team at 22:03.

No corresponding moves have been made, although its possible the Flyers will promote defenseman Samuel Morin, who made the team out of training camp, but was a healthy scratch for four games before he was sent down to Lehigh Valley. In five games with the AHL team, he has put up a goal, three assists, 10 penalty minutes and a plus/minus of +3.

  • While the Vegas Golden Knights await the injury status of goaltender Malcolm Subban, Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Steve Carp tweets out that Erik Haula, who was put on injured reserve eight days ago, practiced with the team today and told Carp he is ready to return to the team, but wouldn’t say when. David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal tweets that Jon Marchessault, who was placed on injured reserve on Oct. 15, also says he is ready to return to the Golden Knights lineup and said he expects to be activated for Tuesday’s game against the Chicago Blackhawks after practicing today. The team may reverse their transactions from last week and send Vadim Shipachyov and Alex Tuch back to the AHL. Both Shipachyov and Tuch tallied no points and neither had any shots on goal in Saturday’s game against the St. Louis Blues. Shipachyov received only 10:22 of ice time, while Tuch had 8:49.
  • Kent Wilson of The Athletic (subscription required) answers mailbag questions about Calgary Flames center Sam Bennett, who has zero points after eight games. Wilson writes the lack of offense would be acceptable if he was impacting the game in other ways, but that isn’t the case. Bennett, whose first full season showed a lot of promise two years ago when he finished with 18 goals and 18 assists, took a step down last year when he only had 13 goals and 13 assists. Now his numbers look even more bleak. Wilson suggests the team move the 2014 fourth-overall pick to the wing in hopes of helping the 21-year-old’s success and promoting Mark Jankowski, who is tearing up the AHL right now with five goals and four assists in six games.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $65,647,000 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Matt Benning (One year remaining, $925K)
F Drake Caggiula (One year remaining, $925K)
F Connor McDavid (One year remaining, $925K)
F Jesse Puljujarvi (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Anton Slepyshev (One year remaining, $925K)
F Kailer Yamamoto (Three years remaining, $925K)
D Darnell Nurse (One year remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

McDavid: $2.85MM
Puljujarvi: $2.5MM
Nurse: $850K
Slepyshev: $600K
Caggiula: $425K
Benning: $300K
Yamamoto: $230K

Total: $7.755MM

Believe it or not, McDavid is still on the list as the Art Ross Trophy winner, Hart Memorial Trophy winner, and Ted Lindsay Award winner is on the last year of his entry-level deal. McDavid will also be listed later in the story under four year and more as McDavid signed his eight year, $100MM extension this summer and will be locked up long term regardless. More on him later …

The Oilers have high expectations for both Benning and Nurse to take that next step. With injuries mounting, both should be vaulted into bigger roles than they were last year. The 23-year-old Benning played in 62 games last year and played solidly while filling in for injured players. The 22-year-old Nurse also had a solid showing in 44 games this year. Both may be asked to jump onto top-four pairings on defense throughout the year.

Slepyshev, who suffered an ankle injury in the offseason looks close to being ready. He had 10 points in 41 games a year ago, but also scored three goals in the playoffs for Edmonton last year and many feel the 23-year-old is ready to take that next step. Caggiula, a big college player from the University of North Dakota, had seven goals and 18 points in 60 games a year ago in his first year with Edmonton and is also thought to be a player ready to make a jump.

Both Yamamoto and Puljujarvi (Edmonton’s 2017 and 2016 first-round picks, respectively) went head-to-head and battled it out for a final roster spot this training camp with Yamamoto getting the edge and Puljujarvi getting sent to Bakersfield, but don’t be surprised if Puljujarvi is back up at some point during the season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Mark Fayne ($2.6MM, UFA – team saved $1.025MM in cap relief by sending him to AHL)
F Ryan Strome ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Mark Letestu ($1.8MM, UFA)
F Patrick Maroon ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Jussi Jokinen ($1.1MM, UFA)
G Laurent Brossoit ($750K, RFA)
F Iiro Pakarinen ($725K, RFA)

Connor McDavidPerhaps the most interesting player the team must focus on will be Maroon, who had a breakout year playing next to McDavid. The 29-year-old wing scored 27 goals and has proven to be one guy who seems to play well next to McDavid. He is a presence in front of the net and a physical force for the team.

Letestu, is another player the team will have to consider. Likely to be the team’s fourth-line center, Letestu put up 16 goals last year, although that was a career high and he’s already 32 years old. Jokinen, who signed a one-year deal this offseason, put up 11 goals last year in Florida, but at 34 years old is likely not a priority to the team.

As for restricted free agents, the team will take a long look at Strome, who the team acquired in the Jordan Eberle deal. The 24-year-old center has had an inconsistent career with the New York Islanders, but put up 13 goals and 30 points last year. The Oilers hope he can keep improving on those numbers. Brossoit will get his first chance to be Talbot’s backup. The 24-year-old looked promising in eight appearances last year.

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Bruins Notes: Pastrnak, Beleskey, PTO Candidates

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The negotiations between the Boston Bruins and 21-year-old superstar David Pastrnak have dominated the headlines in recent weeks, despite the fact that there has been little substance to the actual news. Pastrnak is a restricted free agent coming off of a break-out 70-point campaign and is looking for a long-term contract. The Bruins would like to provide him with one and reportedly made an offer of six or seven years worth $6MM per season earlier this summer, after which there has not been much of a response. While that does seem to be somewhat below market value, especially in light of Leon Draisaitl’s new deal in Edmonton, any report that Pastrnak’s side is unhappy with the offer or unwilling to deal with GM Don Sweeney or President Cam Neely is nothing more than speculation.

Well, it seems that some clarity – and perhaps a conclusion – could soon be on the way. Pastrnak’s agent, J.P. Barry, arrived in Boston yesterday to meet with the Bruins’ brass to discuss the situation. By all accounts, this is the first in-person discussion that the two sides have had this summer, perhaps lending to the idea that the delay in the new contract could be due more to scheduling than anything else. The Bruins still appear certain that they will be able to come to terms on a new deal with Pastrnak, with Neely telling Steve Conroy of the Boston Herald that “David has expressed that he loves it here and wants to play here. We want him here for as long as it makes sense for us.” If Pastrnak continues to produce like he did in 2016-17, what “makes sense” for the Bruins is to keep him as long as possible. With that in mind, they should be flexible to an extent on the salary demands. On the other hand, Neely points out that, outside of the deals signed by former Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli in Edmonton, the market has not changed all that much and their offer to Pastrnak is within reason compared to contracts signed by similar players in recent years. There seems to be a mutual interest between both sides on getting a new deal done and a resolution could be reached in the coming days, finally putting to end a news cycle of fear mongering regarding Boston and their top young scorer.

  • Once Pastrnak is signed, Bruins fans can turn their frustration and anxiety to a new target, which will more than likely be Matt Beleskey. With Jimmy Hayes gone, Beleksey will now face the full ire of the Boston fan base some training camp. Admittedly, Beleksey is fresh off of a very disappointing season. The veteran winger was plagued by injury and ineffectiveness in 2016-17, playing in just 49 games and recording only eight points. While his $3.8MM cap hit is manageable, more is expected at that price tag. However, many are quick to forget that Beleskey’s first season in Boston, 2015-16, was the best of his career. The big forward set a career high with 22 assists and 37 points and skated in a career best 15:51 minutes per game. Beleskey’s 260 hits were also tops on the team, helping to make up for the loss of Milan Lucic, a fan-favorite. In fact, Beleskey had “new fan-favorite” written all over him heading into last season, but that has surely changed. Yet, Beleskey told CSNNE’s Joe Haggerty that he plans to stick to his game this season. Beleskey has spent much of the off-season training in Boston and working to improve his speed, but has no intention of cutting back on any of his trademark physicality. If he is fully healthy and re-focused, as Haggerty sited a “touch of complacency” last season, then bringing that physical edge back to the Boston lineup would be a welcome addition. Yes, Beleskey faces stiff competition this fall for a top-nine spot from Frank Vatrano, UFA add Kenny Agostino, and promising prospects Anders Bjork, Jake DeBrusk, Peter Cehlarik, and Danton Heinen, but his size and strength match up with the historical preference in line mates of second-line center David Krejci, who played his best hockey alongside Lucic and Nathan Horton years ago. If Beleskey really can return to form, he will certainly be given a shot at a scoring role and could find a good fit alongside Krejci and David Backes. 
  • The two themes of the Bruins’ summer have been 1) the team wants to give the kids a chance to make the team this season and 2) the off-season priority is an extension for Pastrnak. That combination has led to speculation that the Bruins would have interest in a late-summer signing or PTO for veteran wingers, after Pastrnak had signed and the up-and-coming forwards had gotten a look. Until recently, Drew Stafford, who performed well in Boston at the end of last season and kept in touch with the team all summer, and Thomas Vanek, whose career has pitted him against Boston many times, were considered two of the top candidates. Now, both have signed with other teams for the coming season and the Bruins’ options are getting thin. Between the aforementioned Bjork, DeBrusk, Cehlark, and Heinen on the left side and top forward prospect Zach Senyshyn on the right, as well as center Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson potentially pushing Ryan Spooner to the wing or sliding outside himself, the Bruins could easily plug their holes internally. However, if they think that those young players need more seasoning, Beleskey, Vatrano, Agostino, Spooner, and Riley Nash are a group that could use some more competition for top-nine spots. The last thing the team needs is to push natural checking line players, like Noel Acciari and Tim Schaller, into the top nine like they did last year.  Depth on the right side is more concerning and the likes of Alex Chiasson or Teddy Purcell could be intriguing PTO candidates, while a high-ceiling scorer like P.A. Parenteau or Jiri Hudler may also be worth a look. With the recent influx of PTO agreements, the Bruins may need to enter the fray before the Pastrnak negotions are over, or else risk missing out on a closer look at one of these options.

Nugent-Hopkins Watch Might Start Early

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With the recent signings of Leon Draisaitl ($8.5 MM AAV), and Connor McDavid ($12.5 MM), there are those around the league who are anxious to see how GM Peter Chiarelli will deal with the inevitable cap crunch on the horizon. David Staples of the Edmonton Journal contends that the possibility of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins being moved in the short-term is overblown. That said, it stands to reason that Nugent-Hopkins will be a focus of trade speculation for a long while. Milan Lucic is the only other forward with as heavy a cap hit, also at $6 MM AAV, but he has a no-movement clause to accompany his deal. If money is moving out, Nugent-Hopkins could be the man in the cross-hairs.

Staples provides a useful breakdown of salary for the next three seasons, and shows how minimal that cap crunch might end up being. Still, it’s expected that Edmonton will attempt to build on its successful season and attempt to compete this year. If they want to add this season, they can certainly do so at the deadline. With their current $8.33 MM in space they’ll have over $30 MM in deadline space, so it seems reasonable to anticipate short-term buys. That said, any additions will complicate the cap picture in 2018-19.  They’ve already moved multiple pieces who initially had great value, notably Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov, and Justin Schultz, and received little in return, with the exception of Adam Larsson (for Hall). It seems unlikely that Chiarelli would risk having another top pick and valuable asset thrive elsewhere just in the name of saving a few dollars.

The trade of Jordan Eberle certainly alleviated some of the pressure that Nugent-Hopkins is bound to face, but that may only be temporary. His 18 goals and 25 assists in a full season are a sharp decline from even his rookie totals. For Nugent-Hopkins to cement his place on a team with two momentous contracts, his production will need to improve dramatically. He’ll certainly see more scrutiny this campaign if he struggles for long stretches, as the concern over money will only make fans and reporters more critical. If the 24 year-old were to be traded, it would most certainly be next summer, when the crunch really starts to surface as McDavid’s hit kicks in. Even after another season under 50 points, Nugent-Hopkins would likely bring in a sizable haul via trade, which might fill out the rest of the forward corps at a cheaper price in Edmonton. Thankfully for the Oil, the organization has multiple players who can slot in at center if necessary – Draisaitl, Mark Letestu, Jussi Jokinen, and Ryan Strome all have experience up the middle and could slot in after McDavid. Nugent-Hopkins will have to stand well above his competition at camp and throughout the year to prove his long-term value to the organization. If it’s another season of being outclassed by the likes of Letestu, he could find himself in the midst of intense speculation.

The Signing Bonus: Rise Of The Buyout-Proof Contract (A Reprise)

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This article was originally published in July of 2016, but seems extremely relevant a year later. Most of the players discussed inside underachieved in their first season, and again we saw signing bonuses handed out like candy this summer. Included at the bottom is an update with new contracts from this offseason.

The life of an NHL agent is tough. As the league continues to tweak (or totally overhaul) their CBA each few seasons, changing contract regulations and offering teams different ways of structuring deals, agents are always trying to find ways to circumvent them and get the best offers for their clients.

With teams becoming more and more willing to use buyouts to rid themselves of the horrible contracts that they sign on July 1st – famously a day of simultaneous excitement and regret – agents around the league needed to find a way to protect their clients from losing out on a third (or sometimes two-thirds) of the salary the sides agreed on.

The most recent buyout window, which lasted from June 15th to 30th, saw a dozen NHL players bought out, including household names like Thomas Vanek and Dennis Seidenberg. While some fans may see this as an opportunity for a player to earn two contracts at the same time – Vanek was signed on by Detroit for $2.6MM on July 1st, more than the $1.5MM he surrendered in his buyout – most take it as a personal slight, an indictment of their play or character. Regardless, agents continue to try and secure guarantees for their clients, instead of leaving the power in the hands of the league’s general managers.

"<strongEnter the signing bonus, this summer’s contract-du-jour. All across the league, big name free agents have inked deals that will see them paid almost entirely in signing bonuses, with very little actual salary being given out each season.  Take Loui Eriksson for instance:

2016-17 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2017-18 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2018-19 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $6MM
2019-20 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $4MM
2020-21 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $3MM
2021-22 – Salary: $3MM, Bonus: $1MM

While Eriksson’s cap-hit sits at $6MM per year, he’ll make more than that in bonuses alone each of the next three seasons. There are a couple of reasons why this would benefit the player.

For one, everyone loves getting a big check rather than a weekly salary – who would turn down a piece of paper with six zeros?  As any economist will tell you, money in hand is worth more than money promised to come, and just as teams in other sports are deferring payments for this reason long into the future, having money up front is actually more valuable for the player in question.

It’s in the buyout rules that the contract really holds value though, as – hinted at by the title – these contracts are basically buyout-proof.  Under the current CBA, buyouts are calculated by taking two-thirds of the remaining salary owed, not including signing bonuses, and spreading it out over twice the remaining contract length. The new cap hit is determined by subtracting the savings from the average annual value of the deal which includes signing bonuses.

This means that if the Canucks were to want to buy out Eriksson after say, the third year of his new deal, they’ll only be saving $333K of cap hit in 2020-21, an insignificant portion of the $6MM number. That last season of $3MM is a bit better for the Canucks (they would save $2MM of his cap hit), but structuring it this way almost guarantees that Eriksson will collect at least $35MM of his deal – more than 97%. It’s just not worth it to buy him out any sooner than his final year.

"<strongAndrew Ladd, Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo all signed deals heavily impacted by signing bonuses, protecting them against a buyout through all but the very end of their agreements.  Even Matt Martin, a career fourth liner secured a $10MM deal that is 65% bonus.  He’ll only be collecting $750K in salary in years three and four of the deal.

While this doesn’t necessarily mean trouble for clubs around the league, you can bet the owners and NHLPA will take a look at it when negotiations begin on the new CBA.  The current agreement expires in 2022, though the two sides have the option to end it a year earlier.

Just as the league has used cap recapture and contract limits to close loopholes in the past, be sure that if they want to continue to have the option to buyout bad contracts they’ll remove this option from the equation.  Creating a rule that would make signing bonuses only be able to hit a certain percentage of each season’s salary would be the easy fix, but expect push-back from the NHLPA.

Even if they do end up closing it, agents will work on another way to get their clients the best possible guarantee; they always seem to be one step ahead of the league.

This summer, signing bonuses have taken off even further. Carey Price’s eight-year extension with the Montreal Canadiens is over 80% signing bonuses, with the goaltender making a maximum of $2MM in salary per year. A $10.5MM cap hit through age-38 will be impossible to buy out, offering almost no cap savings. The Blackhawks face a similar situation with Brent Seabrook, whose 2015 contract is looking worse and worse, and provides little incentive for a buyout.

Interestingly, the Nashville Predators have continued in their practice of avoiding signing bonuses altogether. After signing Filip Forsberg to a bonus-free deal last summer, both Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson have taken similar structures in their long-term extensions this year. GM David Poile has taken much of the risk off the table even as he allocated many of his resources to his trio of young forwards. Though they pose little risk of age-decline, all three carry large enough cap hits to really hurt the Predators if they were to take a step backwards in their development. It’s hard to see any deserving a buyout, but the option is still there.

Alexander Radulov may be the biggest example among 2017 unrestricted free agents, as his contract with the Dallas Stars is both front-loaded and filled with signing bonuses. Radulov will earn just $13.25MM in salary over the next five seasons, making it difficult to buy out even as he enters his mid-thirties. For a player who has a relatively short track record of success in the NHL, it may quickly turn into a problem if he starts to feel the draw of father time.

A Quiet 2017 Off-Season

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By the time August rolls around each year, it seems like the off-season is dragging on. The July 1st free agent frenzy is long behind us and it’s been weeks since the last major signing. Fans are struggling to get their hockey fill and counting the days until the puck drops on preseason hockey. In 2017, fans have all the more reason to be sick of the off-season. When compared with the summer of 2016, this off-season has simply been boring. It was expected to be as such, but no one could have predicted just how quiet this summer could be.

As of today, August 6th, 2017, there have only been two unrestricted free agents signed to contracts worth more than $6MM per year: Kevin Shattenkirk to the New York Rangers (as predicted) and Alexander Radulov to the Dallas Stars. In contrast, there were four such deals signed on July 1st, 2016 alone. Drop that mark down to contracts worth more than $4MM annually, and you get uninspiring names this year like Evgeni Dadonov, Dmitry Kulikov, Nick Bonino, Karl Alzner, Martin Hanzal, and Steve Mason added to the list; hardly a superstar among them. 2016 saw high-profile players like Milan Lucic, David Backes, Loui Eriksson, Kyle Okposo, and Andrew Ladd all find new homes. Those signings came on the heels of the P.K. Subban – Shea Weber and Taylor Hall – Adam Larsson trades as well. The best swaps 2017 has to offer so far are Travis Hamonic or Marcus Johansson being dealt for draft picks. There have simply been a lack of franchise-altering moves made this summer.

Then you have the timeline of when deals got done. By August last year, the best unsigned free agents were Antoine Vermette, Jiri Hudler, and Jhonas Enroth. The year before, Cody Franson and David Schlemko highlighted the August market. In both cases, NHL teams got their deals done in July, filling the month with exciting signing news. This year? Not so much. Legendary players like Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla, and Shane Doan remain available, alongside other able-bodied contributors like Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, and Daniel Winnik. That’s in addition to Franson and Hudler as well. Teams are simply waiting around on this market for reasons unknown. Could it end up as an exciting run of signing in August? Maybe, but don’t count on it.

The weak 2017 free agent market coupled with the challenge of preparing for June’s Expansion Draft has simply resulted in one of quietest off-seasons in recent memory. Several teams still have needs and spots to fill and signings and trades remain possible, but at this point the summer is a lost cause. Time to look forward to next season and even next summer when we *hope* to see the likes of John Tavares, Rick Nash, Evander Kane, James Neal, James van Riemsdyk, Paul Stastny, Mikko Koivu, Cam Atkinson, Jonathan Marchessault, Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Mike Green, Jack Johnson, Calvin de Haan, and Antti Raanta all hit the open market. Hopefully that list is enough excitement to get you through the rest of this one.

Pressure On The Strome Brothers In 2017-18

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If Philadelphia Flyers prospect Matthew Strome somehow makes the roster out of camp this fall, it will come as a pleasant surprise to the team and the fans. Strome fell to the fourth round, 106th overall, in the NHL Draft this past June after many believed he would be a first or second-round prospect. Yet, Strome does possess great size and compete level for his age and has the vision and finishing ability to have an outside shot at a bottom-six winger slot for Philly. However, if Strome is simply returned to the OHL’s Hamilton Bulldogs for another year, maybe two, no one will be upset. There are no expectations for the youngest Strome at this point in time.

The same cannot be said for his older brothers. New Edmonton Oiler Ryan Strome and Arizona Coyotes prospect Dylan Strome face some serious stakes in 2017-18. Both are still young at 24 and 20 respectively, but neither has lived up to expectations thus far. With each facing the daunting task of playing a key offensive role for their teams this season, the time is now to show that they have what it takes.

In many ways, the Oilers’ recent trade of Jordan Eberle to the New York Islanders for Ryan Strome was a salary cap dump. Eberle was set to make $6MM this year and next, while Strome will be paid just $2.5MM this season. Eberle is also twice the player that Strome is, both subjectively in the minds of most hockey pundits and objectively given the pairs scoring stats in each of the past two seasons. The fact of the matter is that the Oilers were facing a cap crunch with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in need of super-expensive long-term extensions and with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Milan Lucic, and their top-four defenseman all already signed to big-money deals. Someone had to go and the choice was Eberle. However, Edmonton has now lost the only player that has been a consistent scorer for them through many dark years and a crucial member of the top six. Strome may not hold up in comparison, but it is no secret that he is expected to contribute this season and vastly improve from his numbers with the Islanders. After a 50-point campaign and +23 rating in his first full pro season in 2014-15, many thought Strome was on his way to stardom. Two years later, he’s scored just 58 points over two seasons and is a -17 in that span. Strome hit a wall in New York and looked lost in the Isles’ lineup. Edmonton presents a brand new opportunity for him to show that his 5th overall pick status in 2011 and early NHL returns were no fluke. While Strome is a natural center, the Oilers are sorely lacking a right-shot offensive threat in the top six with Eberle gone. Rather than bury Strome on the third line, it seems very likely that he could instead move from center to right wing, where he spent some time in New York, and skate alongside the likes of McDavid, Draisaitl, or Nugent-Hopkins next season. With that role will come the pressure to produce alongside such high-quality players. Strome must improve on his 30 points from 2016-17 and has to become a better even strength player. If he doesn’t, the Oilers may regret this deal as they struggle to find secondary scoring and Strome’s future may be in doubt this time next year as he faces restricted free agency.

Dylan Strome has always been property of the Arizona Coyotes, but playing with the team this season may feel like new scenario. The former Erie Otters superstar has played in just seven NHL games since being drafted third overall in 2015 and has just one assist to show for it. Once considered the Coyotes #1 center of the future, Strome will enter the mix this year as somewhat of an afterthought. The team went out and acquired Derek Stepan from the New York Rangers, who should be the team’s top center and offensive leader for the time being. There is also Calder speculation surrounding young center Clayton Keller who, despite being drafted a year after and four spots later than Strome, has seemingly passed him up on the organizational depth chart. With promising young players like Max Domi, Anthony Duclair Brendan Perlini, Christian Fischer, Christian Dvorak, Lawson Crouse, and Nick Merkley also in the mix, not to mention solid veterans like Jordan Martinook, Tobias Rieder, and Jamie McGinn,  it may be hard for Strome to find a top-nine role, nevertheless be a featured forward. Yet, the rebuild in Arizona cannot last forever and “promise” will only hold up for so long on a Coyotes team that should be taking the next step soon. If the ’Yotes don’t improve in 2017-18 and Strome’s rookie season is underwhelming, many may point to his lack of development as the reason why the rebuild has shown few results. While it is asking a lot to compare Strome to the two picks ahead of him in 2015 – Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel – the early success of those after him, like Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, Pavel Zacha, Travis Konecny, Anthony Beauvillier, Sebastian Aho, and more, is likely already frustrating both Arizona fans and executives. Another season without results could be disastrous for his tenure in the desert. The pressure is officially on.

If Ryan and Dylan Strome live up to their draft hype and ample ability this year, the Strome family could be the talk of the hockey town in 2017-18. However, if neither can take advantage of their opportunities this year, there could be some serious doubt cast upon the career prospects of both. Then again, at least there’s always Matthew to watch for.

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