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Milan Lucic

Nugent-Hopkins Watch Might Start Early

August 19, 2017 at 5:03 pm CDT | by Seth Lawrence 4 Comments

With the recent signings of Leon Draisaitl ($8.5 MM AAV), and Connor McDavid ($12.5 MM), there are those around the league who are anxious to see how GM Peter Chiarelli will deal with the inevitable cap crunch on the horizon. David Staples of the Edmonton Journal contends that the possibility of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins being moved in the short-term is overblown. That said, it stands to reason that Nugent-Hopkins will be a focus of trade speculation for a long while. Milan Lucic is the only other forward with as heavy a cap hit, also at $6 MM AAV, but he has a no-movement clause to accompany his deal. If money is moving out, Nugent-Hopkins could be the man in the cross-hairs.

Staples provides a useful breakdown of salary for the next three seasons, and shows how minimal that cap crunch might end up being. Still, it’s expected that Edmonton will attempt to build on its successful season and attempt to compete this year. If they want to add this season, they can certainly do so at the deadline. With their current $8.33 MM in space they’ll have over $30 MM in deadline space, so it seems reasonable to anticipate short-term buys. That said, any additions will complicate the cap picture in 2018-19.  They’ve already moved multiple pieces who initially had great value, notably Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov, and Justin Schultz, and received little in return, with the exception of Adam Larsson (for Hall). It seems unlikely that Chiarelli would risk having another top pick and valuable asset thrive elsewhere just in the name of saving a few dollars.

The trade of Jordan Eberle certainly alleviated some of the pressure that Nugent-Hopkins is bound to face, but that may only be temporary. His 18 goals and 25 assists in a full season are a sharp decline from even his rookie totals. For Nugent-Hopkins to cement his place on a team with two momentous contracts, his production will need to improve dramatically. He’ll certainly see more scrutiny this campaign if he struggles for long stretches, as the concern over money will only make fans and reporters more critical. If the 24 year-old were to be traded, it would most certainly be next summer, when the crunch really starts to surface as McDavid’s hit kicks in. Even after another season under 50 points, Nugent-Hopkins would likely bring in a sizable haul via trade, which might fill out the rest of the forward corps at a cheaper price in Edmonton. Thankfully for the Oil, the organization has multiple players who can slot in at center if necessary – Draisaitl, Mark Letestu, Jussi Jokinen, and Ryan Strome all have experience up the middle and could slot in after McDavid. Nugent-Hopkins will have to stand well above his competition at camp and throughout the year to prove his long-term value to the organization. If it’s another season of being outclassed by the likes of Letestu, he could find himself in the midst of intense speculation.

Edmonton Oilers| Players| RFA Adam Larsson| Connor McDavid| Jordan Eberle| Jussi Jokinen| Justin Schultz| Leon Draisaitl| Mark Letestu| Milan Lucic| Nail Yakupov| Peter Chiarelli

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The Signing Bonus: Rise Of The Buyout-Proof Contract (A Reprise)

August 11, 2017 at 3:26 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

This article was originally published in July of 2016, but seems extremely relevant a year later. Most of the players discussed inside underachieved in their first season, and again we saw signing bonuses handed out like candy this summer. Included at the bottom is an update with new contracts from this offseason.

The life of an NHL agent is tough. As the league continues to tweak (or totally overhaul) their CBA each few seasons, changing contract regulations and offering teams different ways of structuring deals, agents are always trying to find ways to circumvent them and get the best offers for their clients.

With teams becoming more and more willing to use buyouts to rid themselves of the horrible contracts that they sign on July 1st – famously a day of simultaneous excitement and regret – agents around the league needed to find a way to protect their clients from losing out on a third (or sometimes two-thirds) of the salary the sides agreed on.

The most recent buyout window, which lasted from June 15th to 30th, saw a dozen NHL players bought out, including household names like Thomas Vanek and Dennis Seidenberg. While some fans may see this as an opportunity for a player to earn two contracts at the same time – Vanek was signed on by Detroit for $2.6MM on July 1st, more than the $1.5MM he surrendered in his buyout – most take it as a personal slight, an indictment of their play or character. Regardless, agents continue to try and secure guarantees for their clients, instead of leaving the power in the hands of the league’s general managers.

"<strongEnter the signing bonus, this summer’s contract-du-jour. All across the league, big name free agents have inked deals that will see them paid almost entirely in signing bonuses, with very little actual salary being given out each season.  Take Loui Eriksson for instance:

2016-17 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2017-18 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2018-19 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $6MM
2019-20 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $4MM
2020-21 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $3MM
2021-22 – Salary: $3MM, Bonus: $1MM

While Eriksson’s cap-hit sits at $6MM per year, he’ll make more than that in bonuses alone each of the next three seasons. There are a couple of reasons why this would benefit the player.

For one, everyone loves getting a big check rather than a weekly salary – who would turn down a piece of paper with six zeros?  As any economist will tell you, money in hand is worth more than money promised to come, and just as teams in other sports are deferring payments for this reason long into the future, having money up front is actually more valuable for the player in question.

It’s in the buyout rules that the contract really holds value though, as – hinted at by the title – these contracts are basically buyout-proof.  Under the current CBA, buyouts are calculated by taking two-thirds of the remaining salary owed, not including signing bonuses, and spreading it out over twice the remaining contract length. The new cap hit is determined by subtracting the savings from the average annual value of the deal which includes signing bonuses.

This means that if the Canucks were to want to buy out Eriksson after say, the third year of his new deal, they’ll only be saving $333K of cap hit in 2020-21, an insignificant portion of the $6MM number. That last season of $3MM is a bit better for the Canucks (they would save $2MM of his cap hit), but structuring it this way almost guarantees that Eriksson will collect at least $35MM of his deal – more than 97%. It’s just not worth it to buy him out any sooner than his final year.

"<strongAndrew Ladd, Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo all signed deals heavily impacted by signing bonuses, protecting them against a buyout through all but the very end of their agreements.  Even Matt Martin, a career fourth liner secured a $10MM deal that is 65% bonus.  He’ll only be collecting $750K in salary in years three and four of the deal.

While this doesn’t necessarily mean trouble for clubs around the league, you can bet the owners and NHLPA will take a look at it when negotiations begin on the new CBA.  The current agreement expires in 2022, though the two sides have the option to end it a year earlier.

Just as the league has used cap recapture and contract limits to close loopholes in the past, be sure that if they want to continue to have the option to buyout bad contracts they’ll remove this option from the equation.  Creating a rule that would make signing bonuses only be able to hit a certain percentage of each season’s salary would be the easy fix, but expect push-back from the NHLPA.

Even if they do end up closing it, agents will work on another way to get their clients the best possible guarantee; they always seem to be one step ahead of the league.

This summer, signing bonuses have taken off even further. Carey Price’s eight-year extension with the Montreal Canadiens is over 80% signing bonuses, with the goaltender making a maximum of $2MM in salary per year. A $10.5MM cap hit through age-38 will be impossible to buy out, offering almost no cap savings. The Blackhawks face a similar situation with Brent Seabrook, whose 2015 contract is looking worse and worse, and provides little incentive for a buyout.

Interestingly, the Nashville Predators have continued in their practice of avoiding signing bonuses altogether. After signing Filip Forsberg to a bonus-free deal last summer, both Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson have taken similar structures in their long-term extensions this year. GM David Poile has taken much of the risk off the table even as he allocated many of his resources to his trio of young forwards. Though they pose little risk of age-decline, all three carry large enough cap hits to really hurt the Predators if they were to take a step backwards in their development. It’s hard to see any deserving a buyout, but the option is still there.

Alexander Radulov may be the biggest example among 2017 unrestricted free agents, as his contract with the Dallas Stars is both front-loaded and filled with signing bonuses. Radulov will earn just $13.25MM in salary over the next five seasons, making it difficult to buy out even as he enters his mid-thirties. For a player who has a relatively short track record of success in the NHL, it may quickly turn into a problem if he starts to feel the draw of father time.

Chicago Blackhawks| Dallas Stars| David Poile| Montreal Canadiens| NHLPA| Nashville Predators Alexander Radulov| Brent Seabrook| Carey Price| Filip Forsberg| Kyle Okposo| Loui Eriksson| Matt Martin| Milan Lucic

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A Quiet 2017 Off-Season

August 6, 2017 at 2:21 pm CDT | by Zach Leach Leave a Comment

By the time August rolls around each year, it seems like the off-season is dragging on. The July 1st free agent frenzy is long behind us and it’s been weeks since the last major signing. Fans are struggling to get their hockey fill and counting the days until the puck drops on preseason hockey. In 2017, fans have all the more reason to be sick of the off-season. When compared with the summer of 2016, this off-season has simply been boring. It was expected to be as such, but no one could have predicted just how quiet this summer could be.

As of today, August 6th, 2017, there have only been two unrestricted free agents signed to contracts worth more than $6MM per year: Kevin Shattenkirk to the New York Rangers (as predicted) and Alexander Radulov to the Dallas Stars. In contrast, there were four such deals signed on July 1st, 2016 alone. Drop that mark down to contracts worth more than $4MM annually, and you get uninspiring names this year like Evgeni Dadonov, Dmitry Kulikov, Nick Bonino, Karl Alzner, Martin Hanzal, and Steve Mason added to the list; hardly a superstar among them. 2016 saw high-profile players like Milan Lucic, David Backes, Loui Eriksson, Kyle Okposo, and Andrew Ladd all find new homes. Those signings came on the heels of the P.K. Subban – Shea Weber and Taylor Hall – Adam Larsson trades as well. The best swaps 2017 has to offer so far are Travis Hamonic or Marcus Johansson being dealt for draft picks. There have simply been a lack of franchise-altering moves made this summer.

Then you have the timeline of when deals got done. By August last year, the best unsigned free agents were Antoine Vermette, Jiri Hudler, and Jhonas Enroth. The year before, Cody Franson and David Schlemko highlighted the August market. In both cases, NHL teams got their deals done in July, filling the month with exciting signing news. This year? Not so much. Legendary players like Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla, and Shane Doan remain available, alongside other able-bodied contributors like Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, and Daniel Winnik. That’s in addition to Franson and Hudler as well. Teams are simply waiting around on this market for reasons unknown. Could it end up as an exciting run of signing in August? Maybe, but don’t count on it.

The weak 2017 free agent market coupled with the challenge of preparing for June’s Expansion Draft has simply resulted in one of quietest off-seasons in recent memory. Several teams still have needs and spots to fill and signings and trades remain possible, but at this point the summer is a lost cause. Time to look forward to next season and even next summer when we *hope* to see the likes of John Tavares, Rick Nash, Evander Kane, James Neal, James van Riemsdyk, Paul Stastny, Mikko Koivu, Cam Atkinson, Jonathan Marchessault, Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Mike Green, Jack Johnson, Calvin de Haan, and Antti Raanta all hit the open market. Hopefully that list is enough excitement to get you through the rest of this one.

Dallas Stars| Expansion| New York Rangers| Transactions Adam Larsson| Alexander Radulov| Andrew Ladd| Antoine Vermette| Antti Raanta| Calvin de Haan| Cam Atkinson| Cody Franson| Daniel Winnik| David Backes| David Schlemko| Dmitry Kulikov| Drew Stafford| Evander Kane| Evgeni Dadonov| Henrik Sedin| Jack Johnson| James Neal| James van Riemsdyk| Jarome Iginla| Jaromir Jagr| Jhonas Enroth| Jiri Hudler| John Tavares| Jonathan Marchessault| Karl Alzner| Kevin Shattenkirk| Kyle Okposo| Loui Eriksson| Marcus Johansson| Martin Hanzal| Mike Green| Mikko Koivu| Milan Lucic| Nick Bonino| P.K. Subban| Paul Stastny

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Pressure On The Strome Brothers In 2017-18

August 5, 2017 at 10:49 am CDT | by Zach Leach Leave a Comment

If Philadelphia Flyers prospect Matthew Strome somehow makes the roster out of camp this fall, it will come as a pleasant surprise to the team and the fans. Strome fell to the fourth round, 106th overall, in the NHL Draft this past June after many believed he would be a first or second-round prospect. Yet, Strome does possess great size and compete level for his age and has the vision and finishing ability to have an outside shot at a bottom-six winger slot for Philly. However, if Strome is simply returned to the OHL’s Hamilton Bulldogs for another year, maybe two, no one will be upset. There are no expectations for the youngest Strome at this point in time.

The same cannot be said for his older brothers. New Edmonton Oiler Ryan Strome and Arizona Coyotes prospect Dylan Strome face some serious stakes in 2017-18. Both are still young at 24 and 20 respectively, but neither has lived up to expectations thus far. With each facing the daunting task of playing a key offensive role for their teams this season, the time is now to show that they have what it takes.

In many ways, the Oilers’ recent trade of Jordan Eberle to the New York Islanders for Ryan Strome was a salary cap dump. Eberle was set to make $6MM this year and next, while Strome will be paid just $2.5MM this season. Eberle is also twice the player that Strome is, both subjectively in the minds of most hockey pundits and objectively given the pairs scoring stats in each of the past two seasons. The fact of the matter is that the Oilers were facing a cap crunch with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in need of super-expensive long-term extensions and with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Milan Lucic, and their top-four defenseman all already signed to big-money deals. Someone had to go and the choice was Eberle. However, Edmonton has now lost the only player that has been a consistent scorer for them through many dark years and a crucial member of the top six. Strome may not hold up in comparison, but it is no secret that he is expected to contribute this season and vastly improve from his numbers with the Islanders. After a 50-point campaign and +23 rating in his first full pro season in 2014-15, many thought Strome was on his way to stardom. Two years later, he’s scored just 58 points over two seasons and is a -17 in that span. Strome hit a wall in New York and looked lost in the Isles’ lineup. Edmonton presents a brand new opportunity for him to show that his 5th overall pick status in 2011 and early NHL returns were no fluke. While Strome is a natural center, the Oilers are sorely lacking a right-shot offensive threat in the top six with Eberle gone. Rather than bury Strome on the third line, it seems very likely that he could instead move from center to right wing, where he spent some time in New York, and skate alongside the likes of McDavid, Draisaitl, or Nugent-Hopkins next season. With that role will come the pressure to produce alongside such high-quality players. Strome must improve on his 30 points from 2016-17 and has to become a better even strength player. If he doesn’t, the Oilers may regret this deal as they struggle to find secondary scoring and Strome’s future may be in doubt this time next year as he faces restricted free agency.

Dylan Strome has always been property of the Arizona Coyotes, but playing with the team this season may feel like new scenario. The former Erie Otters superstar has played in just seven NHL games since being drafted third overall in 2015 and has just one assist to show for it. Once considered the Coyotes #1 center of the future, Strome will enter the mix this year as somewhat of an afterthought. The team went out and acquired Derek Stepan from the New York Rangers, who should be the team’s top center and offensive leader for the time being. There is also Calder speculation surrounding young center Clayton Keller who, despite being drafted a year after and four spots later than Strome, has seemingly passed him up on the organizational depth chart. With promising young players like Max Domi, Anthony Duclair Brendan Perlini, Christian Fischer, Christian Dvorak, Lawson Crouse, and Nick Merkley also in the mix, not to mention solid veterans like Jordan Martinook, Tobias Rieder, and Jamie McGinn,  it may be hard for Strome to find a top-nine role, nevertheless be a featured forward. Yet, the rebuild in Arizona cannot last forever and “promise” will only hold up for so long on a Coyotes team that should be taking the next step soon. If the ’Yotes don’t improve in 2017-18 and Strome’s rookie season is underwhelming, many may point to his lack of development as the reason why the rebuild has shown few results. While it is asking a lot to compare Strome to the two picks ahead of him in 2015 – Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel – the early success of those after him, like Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, Pavel Zacha, Travis Konecny, Anthony Beauvillier, Sebastian Aho, and more, is likely already frustrating both Arizona fans and executives. Another season without results could be disastrous for his tenure in the desert. The pressure is officially on.

If Ryan and Dylan Strome live up to their draft hype and ample ability this year, the Strome family could be the talk of the hockey town in 2017-18. However, if neither can take advantage of their opportunities this year, there could be some serious doubt cast upon the career prospects of both. Then again, at least there’s always Matthew to watch for.

Edmonton Oilers| Erie Otters| Free Agency| New York Islanders| OHL| Philadelphia Flyers| Prospects| Utah Mammoth Anthony Duclair| Brendan Perlini| Clayton Keller| Connor McDavid| Derek Stepan| Dylan Strome| Jamie McGinn| Jordan Eberle| Jordan Martinook| Lawson Crouse| Leon Draisaitl| Max Domi| Milan Lucic

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Deadline Approaches To Ask Players To Waive No-Movement Clauses

June 12, 2017 at 11:57 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 2 Comments

On the heels of yesterday’s report that both Keith Yandle and Dion Phaneuf had been asked to waive their no-movement clauses in order to be exposed for the upcoming expansion draft, speculation is running rampant around the league on who else will be asked. Below is the full list of players who currently require protection due to their clauses. The deadline to submit a request to a player is 4pm CDT today, while the player must inform the team of his decision by the same time on Friday June 16th. Because the Stanley Cup Finals ended last night, Nashville and Pittsburgh will not receive an extension and will need to submit their requests at the same time as every other team.

Elliotte Friedman was on Sportsnet radio today and mentioned that the Anaheim Ducks have spoken with Kevin Bieksa about possibly waiving his clause, something examined at length in our recent Ducks Expansion Primer.

Anaheim (4)
Kevin Bieksa — Expected to be asked.
Ryan Getzlaf
Ryan Kesler
Corey Perry

Arizona (1)
Alex Goligoski

Boston (4)
David Backes
Patrice Bergeron
Zdeno Chara
David Krejci

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Buffalo (1)
Kyle Okposo

Carolina (1)
Jordan Staal

Columbus (4)
Sergei Bobrovsky
Brandon Dubinsky
Nick Foligno
Scott Hartnell — Was not asked to waive.

Chicago (8)
Artem Anisimov
Corey Crawford
Niklas Hjalmarsson
Marian Hossa
Patrick Kane
Duncan Keith
Brent Seabrook
Jonathan Toews

Colorado (2)
Francois Beauchemin
Erik Johnson

Dallas (3)
Jamie Benn
Jason Spezza
Ben Bishop

Detroit (1)
Frans Nielsen

Edmonton (3)
Milan Lucic
Andrej Sekera
Cam Talbot

Florida (1)
Keith Yandle — Conflicting reports. George Richards of Miami Herald reports that he has not been asked.

Los Angeles (1)
Anze Kopitar

Minnesota (4)
Mikko Koivu
Zach Parise
Jason Pominville
Ryan Suter

Montreal (2)
Jeff Petry
Carey Price

Nashville (1)
Pekka Rinne

N.Y. Islanders (3)
Johnny Boychuk
Andrew Ladd
John Tavares

N.Y. Rangers (4)
Dan Girardi
Henrik Lundqvist
Rick Nash
Marc Staal

Ottawa (1)
Dion Phaneuf — Asked to waive.

Philadelphia (2)
Claude Giroux
Valtteri Filppula

Pittsburgh (5)
Sidney Crosby
Marc-Andre Fleury — Waived.
Phil Kessel
Kris Letang
Evgeni Malkin

Tampa Bay (3)
Ryan Callahan — Not expected to be asked.
Victor Hedman
Steven Stamkos

Vancouver (3)
Loui Eriksson
Daniel Sedin
Henrik Sedin

Winnipeg (2)
Dustin Byfuglien
Toby Enstrom

Expansion Alex Goligoski| Andrej Sekera| Andrew Ladd| Anze Kopitar| Artem Anisimov| Brandon Dubinsky| Brent Seabrook| Cam Talbot| Carey Price| Claude Giroux| Corey Crawford| Corey Perry| Dan Girardi| Daniel Sedin| David Backes| David Krejci| Dion Phaneuf| Duncan Keith| Dustin Byfuglien| Elliotte Friedman| Erik Johnson| Evgeni Malkin| Francois Beauchemin| Frans Nielsen| Henrik Lundqvist| Henrik Sedin| Jamie Benn| Jason Pominville| Jason Spezza| Jeff Petry| John Tavares| Johnny Boychuk| Jonathan Toews| Jordan Staal| Keith Yandle| Kevin Bieksa| Kris Letang| Kyle Okposo| Loui Eriksson| Marc Staal| Marc-Andre Fleury| Marian Hossa| Mikko Koivu| Milan Lucic| Niklas Hjalmarsson| Patrice Bergeron| Patrick Kane| Pekka Rinne| Phil Kessel

2 comments

Snapshots: Bruins, World Championships, Oilers – Ducks

May 5, 2017 at 6:28 pm CDT | by natebrown 3 Comments

CSNNE’s Joe Haggerty cautions the Boston Bruins brass to stay away from free agency this offseason. He reports that Cam Neely doesn’t plan to make any signings, as he indicates that he doesn’t foresee the Bruins making any significant splashes in free agency. Haggerty sees this as a good thing, recalling the signings of both David Backes and Matt Beleskey, who he writes have struggled to live up to the pricey expectations.  Though Neely defends both signings, he admits that both players have not played as the Bruins envisioned they would. Backes, according to Neely, struggled to acclimate at first in Boston while Beleskey has struggled to stay healthy. Both signings, Haggerty reports, should be reminders to approach the offseason with caution.

  • It was a rough day for the American squad in the World Championship as they dropped their opener 2-1 to Germany. USA Today’s Kevin Allen writes that Thomas Greiss bacstopped the German victory, and only Connor Murphy managed to get a puck past him. Head coach Jeff Blashill didn’t seem too concerned, believing that a lack of familiarity with one another also played a role in the Americans’ struggles.
  • TSN’s Frank Seravalli previews the Oilers-Ducks matchup tonight, reporting that Oilers forward Milan Lucic believes that it’s about “taking the play” to the Ducks. After dropping the first two games at home, Anaheim rallied back from a 2-0 series deficit to force the series into a best of three. Seravalli writes that Ryan Getzlaf has been the series’ most dominant “force,” notching 13 points in eight playoff games, including four points in the Ducks’ series tying victory on Wednesday. Also playing a role in the shift in series momentum? The Ducks’ smooth, puck moving defensemen. Oilers head coach Todd McLellan had this to say: I don’t think there’s a team that throws six skaters out there like that. It’s as good as there is in the [NHL] in my opinion. It’s not like you’re running up against somebody that’s a little slow in the retrieval or doesn’t have the ability to maneuver. All six do. Our work is cut out for us.

Anaheim Ducks| Boston Bruins| Edmonton Oilers| Free Agency| Jeff Blashill| NHL| Players| Snapshots| Todd McLellan| Uncategorized Connor Murphy| David Backes| Matt Beleskey| Milan Lucic

3 comments

The Best Deal Of The Offseason: Brad Marchand

March 14, 2017 at 11:05 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

When you think back on any signing season, your mind immediately goes to the big deals handed out to free agents. This season saw over $600MM dollars handed out on the first day of free agency, and was followed by a lucrative summer for tons of players. Because of the lack of a superstar name—thanks Steven, you couldn’t just wait another couple of days?—second-tier all-stars were given incredibly lucrative contracts. Recently, our Zach Leach took a look back at July 1st and the mistakes teams made, handing out term and money to players who were perhaps already over the hill.

Brad MarchandBut this offseason’s best deal may not have come until much later in the summer. In fact it didn’t happen in the summer at all, but on September 26th just a few weeks before the Boston Bruins would start their season. The Bruins were getting ready for their preseason debut against the Columbus Blue Jackets—a game they would lose in a shootout—while two thirds of their top line was prepping for the World Cup of Hockey final in Toronto.

It was that morning of the 26th that Bob McKenzie of TSN would report that the Bruins had completed a contract extension with Brad Marchand that would see him stay in Boston for another eight years. He would be paid $6.125MM each season with several different clauses attached. Even though he was starring at the World Cup alongside Sidney Crosby—and would score the tournament winning goal just a few days later, shorthanded with 44 seconds left—many people thought the deal was a huge overpay. In fact, the replies to McKenzie’s tweet are mixed at best, with it being hard to understand the value Marchand brought to the Bruins.

Read more

Marchand was coming off a breakout year which saw him score 37 goals and 61 points, but he still had a reputation of being a middle-six player that you use more to get under opponent’s skin than dominate them offensively. He clearly wasn’t that anymore, but the smell of his previous suspensions and mediocre assist totals still lingered. He could score, everyone knew that; he hadn’t been held under 20 goals in any full season of his career, and even scored 18 in the lockout shortened 2012-13 season. It wasn’t as clear if he could repeat the 37 goals or continue to grow into a player deserved of an eight-year commitment.

Likely, we should have known then it was a brilliant deal for the Bruins. The market had just given a 28-year old Milan Lucic a seven-year deal worth almost as much as the Marchand extension per season. Lucic—a former Bruin who had been jettisoned a few years prior—was six seasons removed from his only time cracking the 30 goal mark, though had other attributes that earned him the deal. Kyle Okposo had netted the same deal despite never eclipsing 27 goals in his career. Brad Marchand

Now though the move looks like the best of the offseason. Marchand’s point total has exploded while he continues to score goals at an incredible pace. His 35 markers this season have him tied with Crosby for the league lead, while he sits just one point behind Connor McDavid in the Art Ross race. With a hat-trick last night he has forced himself back into the Hart trophy discussion for league MVP, and why not? His influence is felt in all areas of the Boston game, as he skates on both special teams and has dominated both with the man advantage and on the penalty kill.

When his extension kicks in next year, Marchand will fall somewhere around 34-36 among the league’s highest paid forwards, depending on the deals that players like Alexander Radulov and Joe Thornton earn this summer. He’ll still be only third among the Bruins forwards behind Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, only a hair ahead of David Backes.

Many thought the Bruins had given out too much term to a player who had just one impact season under his belt and perhaps they did. The deal won’t expire until 2025, when Marchand turns 37. Paying a player into his late thirties is never a very good idea—one that Bruins fans will know all too well the next few years with Backes—but this contract still looks great for them. For the next few seasons at minimum they are getting one of the very best players in the league at an incredible discount on their cap, while the front-loaded nature of it means they won’t be paying much salary for his decline years. At just $4MM actual salary in his final year, he could get by as a role player for the team.

The Bruins find themselves in a fight for the Atlantic Division, just as close to first as fifth. During their tumultuous season that has seen the decline of Zdeno Chara, the firing of a long-time coach and several players speaking out publicly against the old regime, Marchand has been one of the best stories of the year. His emergence as a top-tier point producer is one that Bruins fans should be screaming from the rooftops, and thanking their lucky stars they have him under contract for next season already.

Boston Bruins| Columbus Blue Jackets| Dallas Stars| Free Agency| Suspensions Alexander Radulov| Bob McKenzie| Brad Marchand| Connor McDavid| David Backes| David Krejci| Joe Thornton| Kyle Okposo| Milan Lucic| Patrice Bergeron| World Cup

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July 1st Free Agent Frenzy Reflection

March 10, 2017 at 8:57 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 1 Comment

The National Football League officially opened the 2017-18 league year yesterday at 4:00pm ET, and the annual onslaught of massive free agent signings has been ongoing ever since, keeping our friends over at Pro Football Rumors pretty busy. The NHL has a similar ritual, as flurry of free agent activity is common each and every July 1st, when a new hockey season officially begins. Last summer, a handful of huge contracts were handed out on July 1st. With the season winding down, how have those players performed in their first seasons? (Hint: mostly really bad)

Milan Lucic

Signed: Seven-year, $42MM deal with the Edmonton Oilers

2016-17 stats: 66 games, 14 goals, 22 assists, 36 points, -7 rating, 134 shots, 17:13 ATOI

Of all six players who received the biggest contracts on July 1st, Lucic is the only one on a team that appears to be a lock for the postseason in 2016-17. Now, that may say more about the effectiveness of hastily giving out money to the best players on the market, but Lucic at least deserves some credit. His offensive production doesn’t quite match up with his $6MM yearly price tag, but Lucic has added the same degree of grit and toughness that made him a fan favorite and Stanley Cup champion with the Boston Bruins. Lucic is always a physical threat on the ice and can make plays through his ability to crash the net and win battles along the boards. He’s never been able to score much more than 60 points per season, with just one 30-goal campaign in his career, but he earns his money through protecting the talented players on the ice while also having the ability to skate alongside them. Lucic is also spending an abnormal amount of time not in the penalty box, with just 41 penalty minutes as opposed to a career average closer to one hundred. Lucic is spending more time on the ice, most recently with his new line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle, than he is in the box, and as long as that continues, this contract will pay off for the Edmonton Oilers.

Kyle Okposo

Signed: Seven-year, $42MM deal with the Buffalo Sabres

2016-17 stats: 63 games, 19 goals, 24 assists, 43 points, -6 rating, 151 shots, 19:04 ATOI

Okposo may have been named an All-Star in his first season in Buffalo, but the Sabres were likely expecting more from their major 2016 investment. The Sabres were likely expecting more from the 2016-17 season overall, but Okposo’s lack of production doesn’t help the matter. As it stands, Okposo is on pace to have his worst scoring season since 2012-13 unless he picks up the pace over Buffalo’s final 15 games. At $6MM a year for six more seasons to come, the Sabres can only hope that Okposo hasn’t already begun his decline at just 28 years old. Okposo has looked good alongside Ryan O’Reilly for stretches this season, but there hasn’t been enough consistency. He is still a safer asset than many of the other older players on this list, but we’ll have to wait until next year to know for sure whether this was a bad call by Buffalo.

Andrew Ladd

Signed: Seven-year, $38.5MM deal with the New York Islanders

2016-17 stats: 62 games, 19 goals, 6 assists, 25 points, -11 rating, 112 shots, 15:56 ATOI

The Islanders have made an impressive comeback from a dismal beginning to 2016-17, but even if they find a way into the playoffs, that won’t be enough to make them feel good about the deal they gave Ladd this summer. At just 31 years old, no one could have predicted that the veteran winger would fall off a cliff this quickly. After scoring 46 or more points in each of the past six seasons, Ladd will be lucky to reach 3o this year. His $5.5MM cap hit over six more seasons could be yet another big mistake by a team with a long history of issues with long-term contracts. John Tavares and the Islanders can only hope that 2016-17 was a fluke and that they’ll get the real Ladd next season, but don’t count on it.

Loui Eriksson

Signed: Six-year, $36MM deal with the Vancouver Canucks

2016-17 stats: 65 games, 11 goals, 13 assists, 24 points, -9 rating, 132 shots, 18:41 ATOI

From bad to worse, we move from Ladd to Eriksson, who may be the worst signing of the summer at this point in time. After a stellar 63-point season with the Bruins in 2015-16, Eriksson signed a long-term deal worth $6MM annually in Vancouver, and the Canucks brass expected that his addition would keep the championship window opened a bit longer. Instead, the team has faltered and appears headed toward a rebuild. One of the main factors to this collapse has been an utter lack of production out of Eriksson. The Swedish winger supposed to put up huge numbers alongside Daniel and Henrik Sedin, but with a month to go, he has been off the top line for a while now has has less than half the points as he did at this time last year. Whether it is a poor fit or simply poor play, this signing could end up being a long-term headache for the Canucks if Eriksson can’t turn it around in 2017-18.

Frans Nielsen

Signed: Six-year, $31.5MM deal with the Detroit Red Wings

2016-17 stats: 62 games, 13 goals, 17 assists, 30 points, -17 rating, 125 shots, 17:09 ATOI

Though the streak of failures was over? Not yet. Nielsen left the Islanders this summer, like Okposo, to help keep the postseason hopes of the Detroit Red Wings alive, like Eriksson in Vancouver, and like Okposo and Eriksson he has struggled. Because of this, the Red Wings’ historic playoff streak is all but snapped and they are left scratching their heads with a roster full of veterans on long-term contracts who didn’t perform up to snuff in 2016-17. Nielsen may be the worst of the bunch, as his 30 points teeters on the edge of being the worst full season of his career. Beyond just the lack of production, Nielsen’s -17 rating is atrocious, especially compared with his numbers in New York, where he was considered a good two-way center. No one on the Red Wings has exceeded expectations this season – now that Thomas Vanek has been traded – but that’s no excuse for Nielsen. He finally got the big pay day he had always wanted, but if really wants to earn that yearly $5.25MM and stay in Detroit for the remaining five years, his play will need to pick up next season.

David Backes

Signed: Five-year, $30MM deal with the Boston Bruins

2016-17 stats: 59 games, 13 goals, 18 assists, 31 points, even rating, 140 shots, 17:21 ATOI

Finally we get to Backes, who despite scoring less than Okposo and not much more than the other two, can count his first season in Boston as a success. Backes has taken his fair share of criticism in 2016-17, but at the end of the day he has always been a two-way threat more than an offensive threat and has done well in that role this season. Backes’ 31 points is well behind his 45 points in St. Louis last year and 58 the year before, but the 32-year-old has also been asked to move from his old first-line center role to a top-six winger role this season, on a team that hasn’t been great at scoring goals. Despite all that, Backes may still end up with about 40 points, as he has been playing his best hockey of the year of late, now a member of the team’s top line with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand since the Bruins’ coaching change. Like the role Lucic once played in Boston, Backes has provided a dominant physical presence wherever he has played in the lineup this season and has contributed some offense along the way. Might the Bruins regret this contract in year four or five? Possibly, but for now Backes is a good fit and will continue to be this season, postseason, and beyond.

Boston Bruins| Buffalo Sabres| Detroit Red Wings| Edmonton Oilers| Free Agency| New York Islanders| Vancouver Canucks Andrew Ladd| David Backes| Frans Nielsen| Kyle Okposo| Loui Eriksson| Milan Lucic

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Snapshots: DeBrincat, Hansen, Eberle

March 5, 2017 at 4:25 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The Chicago Blackhawks have another one coming. For a team that has drafted near the end of the first round for the past decade, they have re-filled their prospect cupboards quite effectively. Even without a first round pick last season, the Blackhawks look like they’ve struck gold with their top selection. Alex DeBrincat scored twice again today for the Erie Otters and broke 60 goals for the first time in his junior career.

DeBrincat is currently on a 17-game goal streak, and is a lock to lead the OHL in scoring this season. This from a player who was cut from the Team USA World Junior squad late last year, and had to wait until 39th overall to hear his name last summer. While it’s not certain that he’ll be able to duplicate his scoring touch at higher levels, his skill, creativity and shot have dominated the OHL since the moment he stepped on the ice. In three seasons, DeBrincat has scored 324 points in 185 games including 119 (60G, 59A) this season.

  • While Nikolay Goldobin is scoring breakaway goals in Vancouver, the San Jose Sharks are still waiting for their big deadline acquisition to join them on the ice. Jannik Hansen has been held up by work visa issues since the deadline, and still won’t join the team in Minnesota tonight according to Kent Youngblood of the Mercury News. He’s also not expected to play tomorrow night against the Winnipeg Jets, but should be ready to go on Thursday when the Sharks return home.
  • Tim Campbell of NHL.com discusses the Edmonton Oilers and their new line of Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Milan Lucic in his latest column. The trio has found instant success, and Eberle is feeling like it has actually been an excellent season for him, despite the lack of goal scoring. As Campbell points out, the 26-year old winger has an extremely low shooting percentage this year at just 8.8% but still has 14 goals and 39 points this season. If it came up to a more regular percentage of 12.5%—which is still much lower than his career mark—he’d have his fourth straight 20-goal season already. The Oilers can’t wait to see what he has in store for the playoffs, as Eberle was once known as one of the most “clutch” performers in hockey from his time at the World Juniors. In 56 career international contests—which includes five appearances in the World Championships—Eberle has recorded 70 points.

Chicago Blackhawks| Edmonton Oilers| Erie Otters| OHL| San Jose Sharks| Snapshots| Team USA| Winnipeg Jets Jannik Hansen| Jordan Eberle| Milan Lucic| Nikolay Goldobin| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins| World Juniors

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Snapshots: Oilers, Eberle, Kaprizov

February 21, 2017 at 11:10 am CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The Edmonton Oilers are in a position to buy for the first time in several deadlines, but that doesn’t mean they should. Their core is still incredibly young, led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl along with a handful of defenders 25 and under. Spending prospect or draft pick capital on a high-priced rental isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but when you’re looking to build long-term success it’s not usually prudent. That’s what Peter Chiarelli thinks at least, in the latest piece from David Staples of the Edmonton Journal. Chiarelli admitted that the group that is winning for the first time in a while deserves some additions, but doesn’t think his front office will be busy on deadline day.

When Chiarelli mentions his offseason moves that are “coming around” he certainly is referring to Adam Larsson, who after a shaky start to the season is starting to turn into the minute-muncher that they’d hoped for. While plus-minus isn’t a perfect stat by any means, Larsson was a -3 through the end of 2016 and has been a +17 since. While a lot of that is dependent on linemates and situations, Larsson has by all accounts started to turn the corner into the excellent puck possession defender they had hoped for. Chiarelli doesn’t think rentals are on the table for his squad, and he might be right. A turned corner by Milan Lucic, another offseason acquisition, would give the Oilers everything they need to make a deep run in these playoffs.

  • Darren Dreger of TSN was on the radio this morning and mentioned that a while back teams were kicking the tires on Jordan Eberle, though discussions didn’t go very far. It will be interesting to see whether the Oilers shop him this summer, as they have to pay Draisaitl this summer and McDavid the year after. After moving Taylor Hall last summer, Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are likely targets this time ’round.
  • Igor Eronko of Sport-Express reports that Minnesota Wild prospect Kirill Kaprizov will move to CSKA Moscow in the KHL after this season, when his contract is up. Currently playing with Salavat Yulayev, Kaprizov has 42 points in 49 games. The 19-year old winger was selected in the fifth round of the 2015 draft, and would be a big addition if the team eventually convinces him to come to North America. For now, he’ll reportedly go to one of the KHL’s best teams and look to continue his development.

Edmonton Oilers| KHL| Minnesota Wild| Snapshots Adam Larsson| Connor McDavid| Jordan Eberle| Leon Draisaitl| Milan Lucic| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins| Taylor Hall

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