Will The 2017 Draft Class Be Better Than People Think?
FanRag Sports’ Hannah Stuart pens an article wondering if the 2017 NHL Draft class is actually not as bad as many think it will be. Coming off two drafts with all-world talents–Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel in 2015 and Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016–anything less of that type of talent would be considered “worse” by definition. Clouding judgement has been the lack of what many analysts believe to be at least one generational player, and a muddled class after the first seven-eight players in most mock drafts. But is it a fair assessment?
Stuart cites ESPN’s Corey Pronman, who put together his ranking of the prospects and even wrote in his opening paragraph that its one of the weakest drafts in the cap era. He goes as far as to say it’s in the same category of the 2011 and 2012 drafts, which in his opinion, didn’t yield much in the way of top tier talent. Pronman lists Halifax’s Nico Hischier as his top prospect, with Brandon Wheat Kings center Nolan Patrick second and Mississauga’s Owen Tippett third. Pronman does write that it’s essentially a toss-up as to who can be the #1 overall pick in the draft–Hischier or Patrick, and that whoever is taken first will be a benefit to his new team.
Looking at the two drafts that Pronman mentioned, the 2011 did feature a slew of players chosen in the top 10 who have been productive in the NHL. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins went first overall, and while he hasn’t produced in the way that Matthews or McDavid have, many analysts (and fans) blame his development by the Oilers as a culprit for his stunted growth. Other notables in the 2011 draft–by draft order–are Gabriel Landeskog (#2), Jonathan Huberdeau (#3), Adam Larsson (#4), Ryan Strome (#5), Mika Zibanejad (#6), Mark Scheifele (#7) Sean Couturier (#8), Dougie Hamilton (#9), and Jonas Brodin (#10). There are a number of strong players in the ten, and while viewed as a “weaker” draft, it at least paid dividends for those teams that drafted them–or acquired them later via trade.
It thins out from there, but there were certainly notables later in the first round or later in the draft. Brandon Saad was taken in the second round by the Blackhawks and he was clutch for Chicago until they were forced to deal him away due to cap issues.
2012’s draft was somewhat weaker one-through-ten, but saw some return in the middle of the first round, namely with Filip Forsberg being taken 11th by the Capitals. Nail Yakupov was taken first by the Oilers, and he certainly hasn’t been the players the Oilers envisioned–but again, that may go back to development questions. Hampus Lindholm (#6) and Jacob Trouba (#9) are the headliners of a defensive heavy top ten. But a look through the rounds and it’s pretty telling that the 2012 edition was not only weaker than 2011, but possibly one of the weakest in the salary cap era.
Stuart makes an extremely important point about drafting: it’s a crapshoot.
A player can make a bad first impression or be a weak skater and be completely written off by certain scouts. However, maybe that player has an excellent hockey IQ, and a team recognizes that and drafts them in a later round. If the team works with them to fix the deficiencies in their skating, there’s every chance they could develop into an effective NHLer. On the other hand, let’s take what we’ll call the Oilers model. A team might consistently draft high, taking players who show elite skill and throwing those players into the NHL before they’re ready rather than taking time to develop weaknesses in their game.
Stuart continues to argue that since the drumbeat has been steady in saying this draft class will be weak, it’s been all but believed by those on the internet. But as she points out, it isn’t so much the drafting as much as it is the development and scouting staff that every team employs.
Snapshots: Konecny, Duclair, Oilers-Red Wings
After missing nine games with an injured knee and ankle, Philadelphia Flyers rookie Travis Konecny will return to the lineup on Saturday night. That’s according to Tim Panaccio of CSN Philly.
It’s an early-than-expected return for Konecny, who was expected to miss 4-6 weeks when he was placed on IR three weeks ago. The rookie has seven goals and 22 points in 51 games so far this season, while averaging almost 15 minutes per night with solid possession numbers. His 22 points were good for fourteenth in rookie scoring when he was injured back in February. He’s now dropped to twentieth, having been passed by fellow Flyers rookie Ivan Provorov among others.
It’s not yet known who Konecny will line up with in Washington this evening. Forward Jordan Weal was called up to replace Konecny, and though he has just one goal in six games, he’s been lining up on the Flyers’ top line with Claude Giroux and Wayne Simmonds. The Flyers also added center Valtteri Filppula at the trade deadline, so the forward core looks slightly different than the one Konecny left last month.
- Much-maligned sophomore Anthony Duclair played his first NHL game in six weeks last night. He had been sent to the AHL in mid-January to find his scoring touch, which had been missing all season. Duclair scored 20 goals and 44 points in his rookie year, but has just three goals and nine points in 42 games this season. The main culprit appears to be his shooting percentage, which has gone from 19% down to 5.2%. It’s not as if Duclair lit up the AHL either, with just one goal and eight points in 16 games. However, it appears he’s back with the NHL club for the rest of the season. Sarah McLellan of AZ Central quoted Coyotes bench boss Dave Tippett as saying the rest of this season is Duclair’s chance to “re-establish himself as an NHL player.” The Coyotes clearly want to take a closer look at Duclair before making a decision on him this summer when he’s an RFA.
- It will be a tale of two teams heading in completely different directions when the Detroit Red Wings visit the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday night. The Oilers are comfortably in a playoff spot for the first time in a very long time, and the Red Wings are about to miss the playoffs for the first time since 1989-90. The last time the Oilers finished ahead of the Red Wings was the following year; twelve members of tonight’s Oilers were not yet born. In addition, this will be David Desharnais‘ first appearance in blue and orange since being acquired before the trade deadline, and he’ll line up Anton Slepyshev and Zack Kassian.
Forgotten Futures: Checking In On Picks 3-5
While Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine have dominated many of the headlines around the NHL since the moment they put on their respective sweaters on June 24th, 2016 there were other names picked that day that have received much less attention. Matthew Tkachuk has burst onto the scene in Calgary, recording an incredible 41 points in his rookie season (including more assists than either of the top 2) while Jakob Chychrun has steadily improved in the desert and is now logging 20 minutes a night as an 18-year old.
There were three other names taken between Laine and Tkachuk, and though their respective fan bases surely haven’t forgotten about their prized assets, drooling over the potential they bring while combing through box scores—that is if anyone combs through box scores anymore—the rest of the league might have. As we head past the trade deadline many teams look towards the future, hoping for a brighter sunrise next season and looking at comparables for their expected draft position this summer.
5th Overall Pick – Olli Juolevi (VAN)
The first defenseman picked in the draft was Olli Juolevi from the London Knights. The smooth skating defender that was heralded as a future #1 who could play in any situation has had an excellent, if a little underwhelming season for the Knights in 2016-17. Playing on a great team in front of a great goaltender, Juolevi has continued to rack up assists while being a main part of one of the stingiest defensive teams in the OHL. The Knights have allowed just 165 goals this season and Juolevi is one of the reasons why.
With 39 points in 49 games, he continues to produce in junior hockey, though a little less can be said about his performance at the World Juniors. Captaining a Finnish squad that was without almost all of their key players—including one we will speak of later—Juolevi didn’t impress much through the preliminary round. After his coach got fired midway through the tournament, Juolevi stepped up a bit but still finished with just two points in six games.
It’s hardly enough to judge him on, but Vancouver Canucks fans were likely hoping to see him take over the tournament all by himself and drag the Finnish team to the medal round. They should however be excited about the prospect that London will be in the OHL playoffs starting later this month, where Juolevi will try for a second crack at the Memorial Cup.
Trade Deadline Summary: Winners & Losers Of The Pacific Division
The NHL Trade Deadline has come and gone, and while it wasn’t the most exciting deadline day in recent memory, there were quite a few notable moves. Here are the winners and losers of the upstart Pacific Division:
Winners
Anaheim Ducks:
- Acquired Patrick Eaves from Dallas Stars for conditional second-round pick
The Ducks had one real need at the deadline and that was another top six winger. By getting ahead of the market and making the deal for Eaves earlier this week, Anaheim was already a winner at the deadline. The conditional second-rounder, which can become a first, is a steep price. However, given that Eaves is having a career year, the market value had yet to be set, and the Ducks desperation had grown due to the Antoine Vermette suspension, they were right to swing a deal when they had the chance. It was a quiet deadline day in Anaheim, but this is still a team that could make a lot of noise down the stretch.
Arizona Coyotes:
- Acquired 2017 third-round pick and conditional 2018 fifth-round pick from Calgary Flames for Michael Stone
- Acquired 2017 first-round pick, 2018 second-round pick, conditional 2019 fourth-round pick, and Grayson Downing from Minnesota Wild for Martin Hanzal, Ryan White, and 2017 fourth-round pick
- Acquired Teemu Pulkkinen from Minnesota Wild for “future considerations”
- Acquired Joe Whitney from Colorado Avalanche for Brandon Ranford
The Coyotes messed up by not trading Radim Vrbata (and might have been able to get more for Stone), but put that aside and what they were able to get from the Minnesota Wild is pretty extraordinary. The team wanted to re-sign Hanzal, but when talks fell apart, it became a foregone conclusion that he would be moved. Yet, that inevitability never drove the prices down and the Wild ended up offering an amazing deal for the career Coyote. The Avalanche should take note because this is how you work the trade deadline as one the league’s worst teams. In exchange for impending free agents who were not coming back in Hanzal and Stone, Arizona ends up with five picks and two prospects (assuming, as it often does, that “future considerations” means nothing) and the team has suffered almost no loss. If GM John Chayka has decided to deal Vrbata, he likely would have added another pair of good picks to that mix, but as it stands, the Coyotes still did pretty well.
Rangers, Oilers Swap AHL Veterans
In need of a winger with Jesper Fast out two to three weeks, the New York Rangers worked quickly, trading Justin Fontaine to the Edmonton Oilers for Taylor Beck. The 25-year-old Beck, who has now been traded four times in the last two years, is the right-shot scorer that the Rangers needed to make up for Fast’s absence. Beck has only played in three games in Edmonton in 2016-17, but has 50 points in 40 games with the AHL’s Bakersfield Condors, already topping his career-best AHL numbers. Beck played in 62 games with the Nashville Predators in 2014-15, recording 16 points, so he has shown that he can stick in the NHL. Although the Rangers likely have no long-term plans for the impending free agent, Beck gives them an option to help out with injuries up front down the stretch.
Fontaine, a 29-year-old Alberta native, played in 197 games with the Minnesota Wild over the past three seasons, but never got the call in New York. The small, high-energy forward was once a top scorer in the AHL, but his offense has fallen off and has been replaced with a more gritty game. A young Edmonton team may be able to use that veteran toughness at some point during the remainder of the season.
Oilers Acquire Desharnais From Canadiens For Brandon Davidson
Per TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie, the Montreal Canadiens have dealt David Desharnais to the Edmonton Oilers for Brandon Davidson. The Canadiens also retained 20% of Desharnais’ contract as well, according to ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun.
With the move, the Oilers grab a center they were seeking, who can slot in anywhere from second to third. In 31 games for the Habs, Desharnais had 10 points (4-6). Davidson has just one point in 28 games.
TSN’s Ryan Rishaug tweets that he’s been 47% in the circle, but injuries limited him this season. Additionally, he apparently fell out of favor with head coach Claude Julien. As for Davidson, the Edmonton Journal’s David Staples wrote an article last year praising the young defenseman. ESPN’s Scott Burnside agrees, writing that the Habs acquired “a promising defenseman”. Hockeybuzz’s Mike Augello argues that while the Canadiens have another depth defenseman, they are still in need of scoring.
Desharnais, though he fills a hole for the Oilers, has seen his performance steadily declined writes Spector Hockey’s Lyle Richardson. The move will ease the burden on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, making it flexible to flip-flop him between a second and third line center.
Renaud Lavoie was the first to report the trade. Pierre LeBrun was the first to report the contract details.
Pacific Notes: Kings, Miller, Oilers, Canucks
While the Kings could still stand to add some offense before tomorrow’s trade deadline, it appears likely that they’ll be quiet on the trade front, suggests Elliott Teaford of the Daily Breeze. He notes that one of the challenges for GM Dean Lombardi will be to find trade assets that teams will be interested in. It’s well-known that the team wouldn’t mind moving on from wingers Dustin Brown (who has five years left after this one) at a $5.875MM cap hit) and Marian Gaborik (four years at a $4.875 cap charge) but they won’t be able to get quality assets in return for either of them.
There’s a good chance that this played a factor into their decision to add Ben Bishop and basically double down on a strength even though it doesn’t address their scoring concerns (heading into Tuesday’s action, Los Angeles sits 11th in the West in goals). They do still have some cap space to play with though as they can add another $3.2MM in a full-season cap hit, per CapFriendly.
More from the Pacific:
- The Canucks are looking into the possibility of trading pending UFA goaltender Ryan Miller, TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie reports (Twitter link). With the team now in sell mode, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to give Jacob Markstrom some more starts down the stretch and moving the 36 year old veteran would be one way to do so. Lavoie suggests that the Flames and Sharks are among the teams looking at goaltending help. However, both teams are tight to the cap which could make it a challenge to find the right fit, even if the Canucks retain on Miller’s $6MM deal.
- The Oilers are also on the lookout for goaltending help behind Cam Talbot. It was reported earlier today that the team is interested in Islanders netminder Jaroslav Halak while Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal adds that Buffalo’s Anders Nilsson is someone they’ve kept tabs on lately. Nilsson wouldn’t be an overly expensive upgrade while his 2.69 GAA and .921 SV% would represent a considerable improvement over what they’ve received from Jonas Gustavsson (3.10, .878) and rookie Laurent Brossoit (2.89, .910). Matheson suggests a fourth round pick might be enough to get a deal done.
- A pair of Canucks who presented with mumps symptoms earlier have received the green light to play, notes Patrick Johnston of the Vancouver Province. Defenseman Ben Hutton and forward Markus Granlund both tested negative and are expected to play tonight against Detroit. However, forward Michael Chaput has tested positive and as a result, will be out indefinitely until the symptoms subside.
When Will The Buffalo Sabres Have Their Renaissance?
For Buffalo Sabres fans this season must be hell. They have seen their team rocked by injuries all season long, taking what is a talented squad and sapping them of their playoff potential. The consecutive losses over the weekend to bottom-dwelling Arizona and Colorado has all but assured that they are sellers at this week’s trade deadline instead of buyers.
The Sabres weren’t sellers last summer, when they went out and gave a big contract to Kyle Okposo and traded for Dmitry Kulikov to help their back end. They were a young team with a ton of potential, and decided to augment it with talented veterans. While Okposo was the team’s all-star representative, his scoring touch hasn’t been enough to help them out of the bottom of the Eastern conference. 
Meanwhile, they have to watch the Edmonton Oilers and (even more painfully) Toronto Maple Leafs experience huge gains from teenagers, turning into legitimate playoff contenders overnight. The teams that they’ve battled with for first overall picks are now surging to the top of the standings. Edmonton won a lottery that Buffalo had worked so hard for to get Connor McDavid, and Toronto tanked for Auston Matthews while the Sabres tried to compete a year ago.
But it’s not just the past two years that should have been building blocks for the Sabres. Like the Oilers, they’ve long had picks to help build a system—that just haven’t seemed to come together as a team. Since 2011 the Sabres have had eight picks in the top-16 of the draft, including four top-eights (Alex Nylander, Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart and Rasmus Ristolainen).
If you look at their track record, it’s actually quite good in these spots with all of them looking like solid if not excellent NHL players. So why hasn’t it come together for them yet? Is it just the injuries? Perhaps, but even the players who have been relatively healthy haven’t performed up to standards.
Ryan O’Reilly, he of the highest cap-hit on the team, has just 38 points in 52 games and hasn’t yet turned into the dominating elite centerman the Sabres had hoped for. Okposo has 39 and looks like he’ll end with his lowest total since the last lockout. Matt Moulson and Brian Gionta have shown their age and turned in a bottom-six production, and Marcus Foligno might not hit double-digits in goals this season.
So when will they experience their renaissance, like the Oilers and Leafs? Will it happen next season, when Eichel is healthy enough to lead their team all season, or are they doomed to sit in mediocrity while they pay off the long-term deals they’ve given to some of these veteran players. Fans should be wary of asking for any other high-priced additions this summer, and instead just rely on the internal development of all these highly drafted players. It looks like the Sabres will add another top pick to the stable this offseason, as long as they don’t do anything too crazy at the deadline.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Friday Trades Recap: Patrick Eaves, Tomas Jurco
Friday featured a couple trades as the trade deadline approaches. Here’s another look at what went down today, and what it could mean for both teams down the road.
Trade #1: Anaheim acquires Eaves
Ducks Receive: F Patrick Eaves
Stars Receive: 2017 2nd round pick (conditional)
The Details: This could be a huge win for both teams should the Ducks see the playoff success they hope for. Eaves has had a tremendous season, netting 37 points (21-16) for a Stars team that could never turn the corner. Eaves brings another dimension of scoring for the Ducks who are looking up at the Sharks and Oilers. The Stars did well, too, snaring a 2nd round pick at the very least for a player who only had one 20-goal season until this year. Should the Ducks advance to the Conference Finals, Eaves needs to play in at least 50% of those games for the 2nd rounder to turn into a first.
Who wins? It all depends on how far the Ducks advance. It’s a win-win should the Ducks go to the Conference Final or beyond since the Stars have a second round pick become a first. If Eaves bolsters their scoring or has a good playoff, it helps the Ducks case in dealing away a second round pick. Should they get bounced in the first round or Eaves not help out as anticipated, it would be a slight nod to the Stars.
Trade #2: Chicago acquire Jurco
Blackhawks receive: F Tomas Jurco
Red Wings receive: 2017 3rd round pick
The Details: The Red Wings and Tomas Jurco never worked together. A highly touted prospect, Jurco never gave the Wings what they sought while the Wings never gave Jurco the ice time or playing time he expected. Enter the Blackhawks. Chicago dealt a third round pick for the 24-year-old winger, who can slide in nicely on the third or fourth line that is less about grit (unlike Detroit) and more about goal scoring and puck possession. Two seasons ago, Jurco netted eight goals in 36 games. The Blackhawks boast a much stronger roster than the Red Wings, and it could be a steal if Jurco lives up to the potential many thought he had.
Who wins? If Jurco flourishes in Chicago, it’s an absolute win for the Hawks. Still young, Jurco never really broke into the lineup despite being known for his puck possession prowess. While Ken Holland is known for letting his prospects “over-ripen,” this seemed to be an “over-done” situation in Detroit. Regardless, they still got a third round pick for a player they would have most likely lost this summer. Another way of looking at it? The Wings weren’t playing him regardless, and getting a third round pick is an absolute win. Should Jurco be a regular contributor for Chicago, a third round pick suffices as a nice giveaway and pickup for both teams.
Injury Notes: Marner, Pouliot, Senators
Mitch Marner is likely out again on Saturday night, but it doesn’t seem like that’s what his coach wants. Yesterday before Marner sat out against the New York Rangers, Mike Babcock told Kristen Shilton of TSN that it’s not up to him at this point.
Mitch and I had that little discussion today. We wondered how the science project was going…and we didn’t get any good answers.
I’ve said it before – that’s why coaches and players aren’t allowed to make those decisions.
Shilton again today reported that Marner had a vigorous on-ice workout on his own before Leafs practice, but didn’t skate with the team. Babcock would love to know when he gets his dynamic winger back, and so would Leafs fans. The team could have used him last night in a shootout loss against the Rangers, and it has now been nine days since he suffered his “day-to-day” upper-body injury.
- Bob Stauffer of 630 CHED reports that the Edmonton Oilers got some good—or bad, depending on who you ask—news today on the injury front, as Benoit Pouliot rejoined the team in Washington. Andrej Sekera also was at practice though Adam Larsson, who missed Wednesday’s game with a lower-body injury, was still absent.
- Columbus has lost winger Matt Calvert on a week-to-week basis, according to the team. Calvery suffered an oblique injury just before their bye-week, but will be out on a longer term than expected. This is the reason for the Markus Hannikainen emergency recall this morning.
- Terry Frei of the Denver Post tells us that both Erik Johnson and Rene Bourque will be back in the lineup tomorrow, a good sign for a team heading into the trade deadline. Bourque could warrant a look from teams looking for depth up front if he can prove he’s healthy enough to contribute.
- Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Citizen is the bearer of bad news for Senators fans, as he reports that both Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone likely won’t play tomorrow night against the Carolina Hurricanes. Stone has a chance, but head coach Guy Boucher “wouldn’t bet on it”. If the pair remains out for any length of time, the Senators may be forced to make a move at the deadline, if they weren’t already planning one.