Tortorella, Blue Jackets Discuss Extension
Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch reports that Jackets’ head coach John Tortorella has spoken with Columbus management about an extension. The Blue Jackets’ 108 point season in 2016-17 shocked nearly everyone, setting the franchise record for most points in a season. They also had the second longest winning streak in NHL history, at 14-0-0, before settling back into a more pedestrian clip. They were felled by the eventual champions from Pittsburgh in an incredibly disadvantageous divisional matchup in the first round. Still, Tortorella turned the team around to see 16 more wins overall while guiding the growth of many standouts, such as rookie Zach Werenski and sudden goal-scoring force Cam Atkinson.
Tortorella coached the 2003-04 Tampa Bay Lightning to a Game 7 victory over the Calgary Flames in the Stanley Cup Final to earn his only championship behind the bench. He coached for 4 seasons with the New York Rangers and 1 disappointing season in Vancouver before landing in Columbus. Tortorella is league-renowned for his abrasive demeanor in press conferences and preaching a hard-nosed style of play. There is a solid chance Tortorella takes home the Jack Adams at the NHL Awards – he is nominated alongside Toronto’s Mike Babcock and Edmonton’s Todd McLellan.
If Tortorella were extended, it is unclear for how many years the contract would be. His current deal expires at the end of the 2017-18 season, and he is still being compensated by the Canucks after his termination there. Portzline suggests that a contract could be in excess of $2 MM.
Metropolitan Division Offers Vegas Multiple Goalies, Project Players
The Metropolitan Division was undoubtedly the most competitive last season, with 3 of the league’s top 5 points finishers within it, including the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Penguins. Some teams in the Metro have prepared poorly, while others look to take a minor hit and move on from expansion relatively unscathed. No major surprises exist outside of Brooklyn, where the Islanders took the crown for the most unorthodox and confounding strategy.
The Penguins seem to have known for quite some time that Marc-Andre Fleury was Vegas bound. GM Jim Rutherford balked at trade offers last off-season despite the goalie’s no-movement clause potentially complicating matters further down the line. The organization finally asked him to waive his clause in February, and both parties seem willing to move on. Rutherford did seem to be leaning toward the 7-3-1 model originally, but eventually opted to go with the 4-4 route to protect both Olli Maatta and Justin Schultz. If for whatever reason Fleury is not chosen, playoff performer Bryan Rust is almost certainly the claim. Columbus’ list is about what we expected, but it still seems strange to see Josh Anderson and Jack Johnson are left exposed. If there is a deal in place for a 1st round pick, as reported earlier by the Columbus Dispatch, Johnson is the likely selection. He’s still got a lot of talent, and with all his international experience, he could be a great leader for younger players in Vegas.
The Philadelphia Flyers made one of the smarter (if unexpected) decisions of the day and opted to protect Scott Laughton over assistant captain Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and the streaky Michael Raffl. Jordan Weal is still left exposed, and theoretically any of the three could be headed to Vegas. The Washington Capitals are absolutely going to lose a solid player, and it’s destined to be either the very promising defenseman Nate Schmidt or standout goalie Philipp Grubauer. The Capitals knew this was coming for a long time, but it can’t hurt any less to lose assets in this fashion. A possible scenario to watch out for is whether Vegas will pursue T.J. Oshie as a free agent in the short-term. They have first dibs on negotiations if they want to open that conversation, and he’s considered by many to be the top available UFA. The team doesn’t really need another goaltender, and their defense would survive without Schmidt, even with his incredible talent.
The New Jersey Devils arguably have the weakest roster on paper at the moment, and it shows with the potential selections Vegas need to consider. Mike Cammalleri is unproductive and overpaid, Beau Bennett has all but busted when he isn’t injured, Jacob Josefson scored one goal last season, and Devante Smith-Pelly is with his third club in as many years. The New York Rangers couldn’t move Antti Raanta and now it seems probable that Vegas will take advantage. Other options would include Jesper Fast and the very productive (27 goals) Michael Grabner, neither of whom is good enough to justify passing on the solid Raanta. No surprises here, but management certainly waited until the final hour to buyout Dan Girardi – which allowed them to utilize that 7-3-1 strategy effectively. Carolina will offer up one of the worst prizes to the Golden Knights, and Lee Stempniak is the only name that truly jumps out. Long-time goalie Cam Ward finds himself on the outs, as does Eddie Lack, but when the team moved for Scott Darling this fate was very foreseeable. Perhaps management will try to entice Vegas to claim one of the keepers and help their logjam along.
The New York Islanders seem to have botched their efforts today, but there may be machinations behind the scenes which could justify such a bizarre strategy. GM Garth Snow opted to protect only 3 forwards and 5 defensemen – the only team to do so. Even worse, one of the defenseman left unprotected was Calvin de Haan. Assuming there is no deal to take a blueliner in the works, Vegas could choose de Haan or their favorite from a large selection of intriguing forwards. Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson, and Ryan Strome are all available, and each provides a different skillset. McPhee could even take one of the league’s toughest bottom sixers in Casey Cizikas or a crafty, veteran Nikolai Kulemin. He has loads of options, and none of them are any good for an Islanders team who survive off their depth. Why Adam Pelech, with his 12 career points and 46.6% Corsi For in 2016-17, was worth protection over any of those names will surely be one of the draft’s greatest quandaries.
Vegas will get an opportunity to draft their starting two goaltenders from the Metro, and will have a wide assortment of options elsewhere. The Washington situation should be fun to speculate on, and trying to find a worthwhile pick in New Jersey could be an adventure for the Knights. Snow’s Islanders are just an incredible anomaly, and that list may draw some serious criticism.
Pacific Expansion Options Offer Weak Value To Vegas
When looking at the massive lists that were released today, the Pacific Division might have produced one of the weaker set of options for the Las Vegas Golden Knights. Again, while many of these names may be intriguing to hockey fans, that doesn’t mean that Las Vegas will take all of them. The team has been active on the trade market and continues to work hard to acquire as many draft picks that can build the franchise’s future over the next five years. So, there are many side deals that will dissuade the Golden Knights from taking certain people. On top of that, the team may also look to draft several players with the hopes of flipping them to another pick for even more picks.
The Anaheim Ducks list stands out the most. They have two obvious names that stand out in defensemen Josh Manson and Sami Vatanen. Manson had a breakout year with his physical play and Vatanen is a top defenseman despite an off year. While both would be perfect pieces to a brand-new franchise as they are both high-quality and young defenders, most people believe that there is a side deal already in place that will prevent the Golden Knights from taking either one. The Edmonton Oilers, on the other hand, has little of value as the Oilers were able to protect most of what they needed to keep their core intact as well as several key players were exempt from the expansion draft.
The San Jose Sharks also didn’t have expose too much, although defenseman David Schlemko might be a solid veteran who has three years left at a reasonably priced $2.1MM per year. However, Las Vegas may attempt to kick the tires on star free agents Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau instead. The Calgary Flames have a few options available that could intrigue Las Vegas. The team could go after veteran forward Troy Brouwer, but he still has three years remaining at $4.5MM. Another option would be 23-year-old blueliner Brett Kulak, who is an emerging young defenseman. Again, Las Vegas might be better off going after one of their unrestricted free agents instead, either defenseman Michael Stone or veteran winger Kris Versteeg.
The Los Angeles Kings also are a team that didn’t have to expose too much. Perhaps their most interesting option is defenseman Brayden McNabb, who is an excellent physical defenseman. However, a collarbone injury derailed much of his season this past year and he wasn’t the same upon his return. The Arizona Coyotes are another team that didn’t have to protect too much. Forwards Jamie McGinn and Brad Richardson might be the best two options unless Las Vegas can convince veteran forward Radim Vrbata to sign with them. The Vancouver Canucks exposed center Brendan Gaunce, who has a lot of promise, but has never been able to put up numbers at the NHL level. Gaunce, a former first-round pick in 2012, had just five assists in 57 games.
Early Expansion Protection News: Capitals, Kings, Flames, Predators, And More
The 2017 NHL Expansion Draft is an exciting process. If you’re too riled up to wait until the lists are officially submitted in the morning, you’re in luck. As could be expected, information leaks are flooding in on who was and wasn’t protected by their teams ahead of the deadline this afternoon. This list will be updated all night long as more news comes in:
- Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post was the first reputable source to release her team’s protection list, as she confirmed the Washington Capitals’ names not long after the 5:00 PM ET deadline. The lists includes the expected names: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, Marcus Johansson, Lars Eller, Tom Wilson, Matt Niskanen, John Carlson, Dmitry Orlov, and Braden Holtby. While not surprising, the list does not include long-time Jay Beagle, promising young players Nate Schmidt and Brett Connolly, and a oft-rumored target of the Golden Knights, backup goaltender Philipp Grubauer.
- L.A.-based hockey writer John Hoven got the list of protected players for the Los Angeles Kings, which confirms that they will indeed protect eight-skaters, including four defenseman, rather than the 7/3 protection scheme. Among the safe are Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson, Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez, and the key decision, Derek Forbort. Star goalie Jonathan Quick was also obviously protected. While the Kings succeeded in protecting the most valuable players on the roster, they still have left defenseman Brayden McNabb and a large assortment of forwards including Trevor Lewis, Nic Dowd, and Nick Shore open to selection.
- Sportsnet’s Eric Francis, who covers the Calgary Flames, has some key names for his team as well. Francis confirmed that the Flames did not protect 2016 free agent acquisition Troy Brouwer, but did opt to save younger assets like Sam Bennett, Micheal Ferland, and Curtis Lazar. Although Francis stops there, the rest of Calgary’s list is somewhat self explanatory with newly-acquired goalie Mike Smith, defensive core of Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, and Dougie Hamilton, and cornerstone forwards Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Michael Frolik, and Mikael Backlund as obvious choices.
- One not so obvious choice has been made in Nashville. Adam Vingan of The Tennessean answered a question on the minds of many, reporting that the Predators did in fact protect forward Calle Jarnkrok. With the rest of the eight-skater list all but set in stone with goalie Pekka Rinne, defensemen Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm, and star forwards Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson, the final forward spot came down to Jarnkrok, signed long-term, or James Neal, an elite scorer with just one year remaining on his contract. It seems that Neal will be open for selection, alongside names like Colton Sissons, Colin Wilson, and Craig Smith. Vignan adds that no deal has been struck between Vegas and the Predators to protect any of those players, with Nashville especially liking to retain Neal and Sissons.
- Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that, interestingly enough, young Detroit Red Wings defenseman Xavier Ouellet was not protected by his team. This is the first real surprise of the expansion process and the first protection news that doesn’t match up with PHR’s Expansion Primer projections. The 23-year-old skated in 66 games this season for Detroit, third most among defenseman, and his 12 points tied that of top-pair man Danny DeKeyser. Yet, Ouellett will not join DeKeyser and Mike Green in protection, instead beaten out by another teammate. GM Ken Holland, who has gotten the reputation of perhaps being too loyal, possibly chose aging veteran Niklas Kronwall over Ouellet. Hopefully that doesn’t come back to bite the rebuilding Red Wings.
- Another name confirmed to be unprotected is young Vancouver Canucks center Brendan Gaunce. Vancouver sports anchor Rick Dhaliwal was told that that Gaunce, a 2012 first-round pick, did not make the protection list for the Canucks, expected to be a 7/3 format, meaning that the team saw him as outside the top seven forwards on the team. The 23-year-old two-way specialist has upside, but after registering just five points in 57 games last season, no one will blame Vancouver for that choice.
Vancouver Canucks Sign Erik Gudbranson
The Vancouver Canucks have re-signed restricted free agent Erik Gudbranson to a one-year contract. The deal will pay Gudbranson $3.5MM next season. That’s the same salary he was paid this season, after playing only 30 games before wrist surgery shut him down in December. 
Gudbranson, 25, was acquired by the Canucks last summer from the Florida Panthers in exchange for Jared McCann a deal that was questioned by different sides of the hockey community for different reasons. On one side, Gudbranson has performed poorly by analytical metrics since entering the league as a 20-year old, and on the other were his physicality, pedigree and intangibles that were lauded in Florida as a young player. Gudbranson was selected third overall in the 2010 draft and has made good on the promise of a big, intimidating presence on the ice.
While his offensive game still lacks any real explosiveness, Gudbranson is still young enough to potentially refine his play in the defensive end to become a true shutdown defender. If he can do that, and prove that he fits into the top-4 on a team in the league, this short contract potentially sets him up as a 26-year old unrestricted free agent next summer. This will be Gudbranson’s seventh season, making him eligible to hit free agency a year earlier.
If the team had wanted to buy out any of those free agent years, the cap-hit likely would have moved up as Gudbranson believes he can earn more on the open market. That just isn’t acceptable for the club at this point, with him still unproven in the city as a part of their future.
With many rumors flying around about Chris Tanev possibly being on the move, Gudbranson has a chance to step into a big role with the Canucks and make himself a lot of money. Should he log over 20 minutes a night again this season, he could demand a very long deal as a young right-handed defenseman on the open market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Metropolitan Notes: Penguins, Mason, Number One Pick, Buchberger
Last offseason, the Penguins didn’t make any substantial changes to their roster while the biggest departure was defenseman Ben Lovejoy to New Jersey. Speaking with Dave Molinari of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, GM Jim Rutherford admitted that there will be a lot more changes this time around:
“If I could keep most of them together this year, I would do that. But the [salary] cap and the economics will dictate some decisions that we’re going to have to make that aren’t necessarily ones we would make if we didn’t have the cap.”
Pittsburgh currently has a little over $60MM committed to 16 players per CapFriendly. Restricted free agents Justin Schultz, Brian Dumoulin, and Conor Sheary are all in line to get raises from their current contracts while their list of unrestricted free agents is highlighted by veterans Trevor Daley, Nick Bonino, and Ron Hainsey. Even if they lose Marc-Andre Fleury’s $5.75MM, there’s still not going to be enough money to keep everyone around. Speaking of those pending UFAs, Rutherford noted that talks with some of those players will begin on Thursday.
Elsewhere in the Metropolitan:
- The Flyers have not engaged in contract discussions regarding pending unrestricted free agent goaltender Steve Mason, agent Anton Thun told Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Accordingly, Thun expects Mason to hit the open market on July 1st and head elsewhere. The 29 year old is coming off a tough season in Philly, posting just a .908 save percentage in 58 games. Mason was critical of his usage at the end of the year, calling into question the effectiveness of the platoon system that saw him and Michal Neuvirth splitting starts at times.
- New Jersey is not anticipating trading the first overall pick as things currently stand, GM Ray Shero noted to NHL.com’s Mike Morreale. Shero acknowledged that he has received inquiries regarding their willingness to move down as well as some specific offers but has yet to find the right fit yet. If New Jersey retains the pick, they’re expected to choose between a pair of centers in Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier.
- The Islanders are expected to wait until after next week’s Entry Draft before officially announcing the addition of Kelly Buchberger as an assistant coach, reports Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal. He had been Edmonton’s Vice President of Player Development but has spent time behind the bench as well, spending six seasons as an assistant with the Oilers. Buchberger will soon join Luke Richardson and Scott Gomez on a newly-revamped coaching staff in New York.
Pacific Notes: Foo, Tanev, Treliving
The Union College standout Spencer Foo looks to be closing in on a decision as to where he will sign in the NHL. The right-winger netted an impressed 62 points in 38 games as a junior. An Edmonton native, he appears to be closing in on signing with the Edmonton Oilers, per Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal. He has also been linked to the Flyers, where he would almost certainly see a more favorable landscape when it concerns openings in the top-12 forward group. Foo, leading scorer of the Dutchmen, was announced as one of the 10 semi-finalists for the Hobey Baker award. The forward plays a gritty, greasy game and already appears to have embraced the physicality of an adult game. He has enough offensive upside to easily grow into a top-9 role.
- Dallas is still on the hunt for a defenseman to aid newly acquired Ben Bishop, and according to Matheson have interest in Vancouver’s Chris Tanev. He only played 53 games last season, and struggled a bit alongside the rest of his Canuck teammates. Matheson ponders whether Dallas would be willing to move the #3 pick if more pieces were added, but this is difficult to imagine unless the addition is a far bigger get, probably including the Canucks’ own #5 selection. Second pairing defenseman are generally worth 2nd or 3rd rounders, whereas Dallas will have the opportunity to draft a real difference maker at their current position, conceivably standout defensive prospect Cale Makar. Dallas wants to compete now but the decision ultimately lies in Vancouver’s court.
- Calgary has a large decision ahead of them, and it seems as though they could be the icebreaker on the goalie front. GM Brad Treliving has tough work ahead – the Flames seem intent on letting Brian Elliott go after his post-season struggles, and he’s arguably the best free agent goalie available. The team has been linked (with varying degrees of certainty) in trade talks to New York’s Antti Raanta and Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury, and Arizona’s Mike Smith is a name that has been widely mentioned as available. Treliving will likely want to sort the situation out before July 1st when the pickings will get far slimmer. Peter Budaj and Mike Condon are options, but there will be other teams lobbying for their services.
Vancouver Canucks Announce Full Coaching Staff
Following in the flurry of coaching news, the Vancouver Canucks have announced their full coaching staff for the 2017-18 season. New head coach Travis Green will be joined by Newell Brown, Nolan Baumgartner, Doug Jarvis and Manny Malhotra as assistant coaches, while Dan Cloutier will return as goalie coach. Glenn Carnegie and Ben Cooper will also be part of the staff in skills development and video respectively.
Green will attempt to take Canucks in a direction rarely seen in Vancouver as they begin to truly rebuild the franchise for the first time since the Sedin twins were drafted in 1999. He’ll be joined by a good mix of experienced and up-and-coming names, as the team tries to build a new identity behind some of their younger players. Brown was fired by the Arizona Coyotes recently after four years in the desert, but has 20 years as an NHL assistant to his name. Baumgartner will follow Green from Utica for the first NHL opportunity of his coaching career. The former Canucks defenseman actually had the best season of his playing career in Vancouver, when he registered 34 points in 70 games during 2005-06 for the club. He would only play 73 other NHL games and record 13 points over his career, making his stop in Vancouver a memorable one.
The announcement comes as something of a promotion for Malhotra, as he had previously been listed as a development coach in the organization. The long-time NHL center will still have to wait for a chance behind an NHL bench however, as only Brown and Baumgartner will be there during the game. Another former Canucks player, Malhotra was part of the team that went to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2011, but missed most of the playoffs after a scary eye injury that nearly ended his career. His return in game two of the finals is one of the most memorable moments for any Canucks fan of the last decade.
Vancouver’s Tanev Would Be Costly In Trade
With the rebuilding progress underway in Vancouver, there are many rumors the Canucks may be looking to trade off their two veteran defensemen, Alexander Edler and Chris Tanev for prospects and draft picks. While Edler has a no-trade clause and would have to be a willing participant in any deal away from the only franchise he’s ever played for, Tanev would be easier to move. The 27-year-old blueliner wouldn’t provide much offense to any team trading for him, but his defensive ability makes him a top-four defenseman that so many teams covet as the offseason officially approaches.
Reports are that the Canucks are listening to offers, but will only consider it if they are blown away by an offer. After all, Tanev’s presence would be hard to replace on the blueline of a team that has had two poor years in a row.
In fact, Cam Tucker of NBC Sports reports Elliotte Friedman said Saturday night on Sportsnet, “The one thing I’ve heard is other GMs who say they’ve reached out to Vancouver have been told that this is no guarantee. And if Chris Tanev is going anywhere, the price is going to be very high for him. He’s got three more years under contract. He’s a good player at a good price. I don’t think Vancouver is looking to do this unless it’s a great deal.”
The Vancuver Sun’s Ben Kuzma wrote a story suggesting the team should use Tanev in a deal with the Dallas Stars with the hopes of acquiring the #3 pick in draft. Tanev and one of their fourth-rounders would be a solid package to net one of the top centers in the draft, whether it would be Gabriel Vilardi, Casey Mittelstadt or Cody Glass. They can then use their #5 overall pick to draft a young defenseman.
Dallas, who has made it clear that they are serious about moving the third overall pick, are looking for a top defenseman to solve their defensive issues. Tanev would be a perfect fit to their team, according to Kuzma.
Tanev, who like Edler has spent his entire career with the Canucks’ franchise, only put up two goals and eight assists this past year in 53 games. In fact, he’s never scored more than 20 points at any point in his career, but his defensive abilities make his 4.45MM deal over the next three years look reasonable.
Expansion Primer: Pittsburgh Penguins
Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
With the Penguins up two games to zero in the Stanley Cup Finals, the team’s success under the guidance of GM Jim Rutherford cannot be understated. Potential back-to-back championships following a long list of playoff disappointments and identity crises would all but erase the sting of many poor management decisions under former GM Ray Shero.
After the acquisition of Phil Kessel, the team has not looked back in the slightest offensively. They sat out and relished their summer last off-season with minimal movement, but this year Rutherford has decisions to make. Although the makeup of the team will surely be different come October, there are many options to be considered.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Sidney Crosby (NMC), Evgeni Malkin (NMC), Phil Kessel (NMC), Patric Hornqvist, Carl Hagelin, Bryan Rust, Tom Kuhnhackl, Scott Wilson, Josh Archibald (RFA), Oskar Sundqvist (RFA), Jean-Sebastien Dea (RFA)
Defense:
Kris Letang (NMC), Olli Maatta, Ian Cole, Brian Dumoulin (RFA), Derrick Pouliot (RFA), Justin Schultz (RFA), Frank Corrado (RFA), Tim Erixon (RFA), Stuart Percy (RFA)
Goalies:
Marc-Andre Fleury (NMC), Matt Murray
Jake Guentzel, Conor Sheary, Daniel Sprong, Carter Rowney, Tristan Jarry, Zach Aston-Reese, Thomas DiPauli, Teddy Blueger, Dominik Simon, Jeff Taylor, Ethan Prow, Lukas Bengtsson, Sean Maguire
Key Decisions
To get the elephant in the room cleared aside, it seems a foregone conclusion that Marc-Andre Fleury will waive his No Movement Clause in order for the franchise to protect Matt Murray. This arrangement would suit him, as he performs far better statistically in a starting role, and it allows him to be “the guy” in a new city. If for some unforeseen reason Fleury opts against waiving his NMC, Rutherford will assuredly find a trade elsewhere prior to the expansion draft. At the end of the day, Murray, with two amazing playoff performances at only 23 years-old, is going nowhere.
The other four players who must be protected are those which will not give management any sleepless nights. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are both future hall of famers playing prime hockey, providing great value for their contracts. Kessel, at his reduced rate, has absolutely exceeded expectations when his contract was shipped from Toronto. Kris Letang is the only player who some fans have balked out, as he has missed substantial chunks of time, consistently hitting LTIR and wasting cap dollars. Letang, however, is easily a top-10 defenseman in the league,. Watching how these playoffs have been far less decisive than last for Pittsburgh, there is no doubt the entire organization is willing to take the risk to have him return to the blueline.
The major decision right off the start will be whether Rutherford will decide to go with the 7 forwards-3 defensemen-1 goalie model, or the 8 total protected alternative. It seems apparent that most teams will opt for the former, because it provides protection to two additional players. The Penguins, however, are facing truly unique circumstances, and it seems slightly more likely that they will opt for the latter.
Assuming they go that route to protect their defensive corps (one of Justin Schultz/Olli Maatta), the decision at forward will not be an easy one. Beyond the big three up front who must be protected, there are a few names which could intrigue Vegas. Considering the cost to acquire him (James Neal), and his absolutely pivotal net-front presence, Patrick Hornqvist seems the safest bet to secure protection. Rutherford is a big fan, and many in management have placed a lot of faith in him. The downside of this, of course, is that it would leave Bryan Rust exposed. Rust has already made a name for himself in big games, with multiple game-winning and series-clinching goals. He has the same net-front mentality that Hornqvist does, and is five years his junior. Hornqvist is the more proven offensive commodity, but Rust’s 15 goals and 28 points are nothing to look down upon. In the wake of a potential loss of the hard nosed but unrestricted Chris Kunitz, this would be a painful blow to the team’s physicality. Thankfully, both Conor Sheary and Jake Guentzel are exempt from selection, which helps solidify their top lines regardless of this decision.
The defense if the 4-4-1 model is adopted is quite easy to predict. Although Ian Cole has been a completely perfect shot-blocking minute muncher this playoff run, he is 28 years old and relatively ineffective at driving offense with speed. Assuming that Schultz re-signs and doesn’t command an absolute robbery of a contract, he will be protected. His playoff run has been mostly solid, if spotted with occasional mishap, and his 51 points last season was good for 6th among defenseman in the league, just behind the likes of Dustin Byfuglien and Duncan Keith. That sort of production isn’t easily replaced, and especially considering Letang’s precarious health situation, he is the go-to offensive defenseman in his absence.
Maatta could certainly find himself on the outs, but it’s difficult to imagine him being exposed in the expansion draft. The team showed a great deal of confidence in him by inking him to a 6 year contract after limited sophomore season action, and his contract at $4.083 is certainly manageable. The 23 year-old two-way defender will certainly need to improve his skating to keep up with the high-flying organizational mentality, and there is the possibility his sluggishness has landed him in serious disfavor. If Rutherford were intent on moving on from Maatta, however, it would not be via expansion – he is too valuable a piece to lose for nothing. A trade is certainly a possibility, but the smart money is on the front office praying for a healthy summer of training and improvement for the young Finn.
It is certainly conceivable that the Penguins do opt for the 7-3-1 option, if they truly value Rust more than Schultz or Maatta. This would result in Rust, Scott Wilson, and one of Tom Kuhnhackl, Josh Archibald, and Carl Hagelin to be the additional protect-ees. (Hagelin’s $4 MM contract would likely make him a prime target for sacrifice under this scenario.) Maatta would be the likely claim in this potentiality, as he is less favored internally for purely stylistic reasons when contrasted with Schultz.
However, it seems more likely that Pittsburgh has already worked out a scenario between Fleury, his agent, and Vegas management regarding Marc-Andre Fleury. Rutherford’s lack of panic around the draft last year has led many to believe that this situation has already been handled, and that perhaps a sweetener will be thrown in for not claiming Bryan Rust or a young defenseman.
Projected Protection List
F Sidney Crosby (NMC)
F Evgeni Malkin (NMC)
F Phil Kessel (NMC)
F Patrick Hornqvist
D Kris Letang (NMC)
D Brian Dumoulin
D Justin Schultz
D Olli Maatta
G Matt Murray
If for whatever reason one of Maatta and Schultz is left to dry in the place of this prediction, the re-signing of Trevor Daley and perhaps even Ron Hainsey would likely follow suit. The loss of Rust would be difficult to sustain on an emotional level, as he has been a leader for the younger Wilkes-Barre call-ups since last season. But with young players like Zach Aston-Reese and Daniel Sprong looking to claim a roster spot in training camp next season, his offensive production would likely be easy to absorb. Ultimately, however, it seems probable that Fleury will be Vegas’ selection. Following his impressive resurgence in the first two round of the playoffs, and his difficult situation in Pittsburgh behind the legendary Matt Murray, it seems a fit that would work for all parties involved.