Star winger Matthew Tkachuk will be back in the lineup tonight, he told reporters this morning (including Jameson Olive of the Panthers’ website). Tkachuk is on long-term injured reserve, meaning Florida’s demotion of Noah Gregor today to open up a roster spot won’t be enough. Florida has just over $1MM in cap space, per PuckPedia, but needs to up that number to nearly $3.82MM to activate Tkachuk.
Nonetheless, all signs point toward the 28-year-old making his season debut at home this evening against the Sharks. His injury troubles date back to last February, when he tore an adductor muscle while playing for the United States at the 4 Nations Face-Off. He ended up missing the balance of the regular season to recover as much as possible without needing season-ending surgery. That permitted him to suit up in all 23 playoff games as Florida marched to the second of back-to-back Stanley Cups, still producing at a point-per-game rate and leading the league with five power play postseason goals despite being nowhere close to 100%.
Understandably, playing through the injury aggravated it. Tkachuk spent most of the offseason mulling his options before finally electing to undergo a wide-ranging surgery on the area in early August. There was a wide-spanning return timeline that was expected to see him make his 2025-26 debut around New Year’s Day, ideally in time for Florida’s hosting of the Winter Classic, but he ended up blowing through that target by a few weeks.
All that matters to the Cats is that he’s back now, especially with captain Aleksander Barkov likely lost for the regular season and top offensive threat Brad Marchand currently sidelined. He’s set to have his minutes limited in his return, taking third-line rushes this morning with Evan Rodrigues and Mackie Samoskevich, per Steve Goldstein of Scripps Sports. Historically, that hasn’t been an issue for him. In Game 1 of last year’s first-round win over the Lightning, his first appearance in over two months, he logged just 11:43 of ice time but was still good for a three-point game.
Tkachuk has been practicing for several weeks now, though. His return is far from rushed, so the diminished even-strength role from the hop likely has more to do with his game conditioning rather than his health being anything less than 100%. The 2023 Hart Trophy finalist now looks to extend his streak of four consecutive seasons above a point per game, with 35 games left on Florida’s schedule to do so.
Since the Panthers acquired Tkachuk from the Flames in the 2022 offseason’s blockbuster deal, he’s been the most productive Florida player on a per-game basis by a significant margin at 1.20 points/GP. That’s good for 10th in the league during that time – more than names like Jack Eichel, Jack Hughes, and Auston Matthews – and has even exceeded Pavel Bure as the Panthers’ all-time points-per-game leader, at least for now.
With Barkov and Tkachuk out all year to date, the Panthers have had to reach deep into their forward depth. That’s resulted in their offense, which has finished in the top half of the league every year since 2017-18, dipping to a 3.04 goals per game output that ranks 19th out of 32 teams and last in the competitive Atlantic Division. With Florida trailing the Sabres by four points for the last wild card spot with no games in hand, they need more firepower – now – to ensure they don’t miss the postseason cutoff following three straight trips to the Stanley Cup Final.
As for Florida’s salary cap problem, they have an easy short-term solution in moving defenseman Seth Jones from standard IR to LTIR to clear up the necessary space for Tkachuk’s activation. They can add $3.82MM of his $7MM cap hit to their LTIR pool by doing so, since he’s already missed seven games and 17 days – three and seven short of the LTIR minimums, respectively. Having the space to then activate Jones when he’s expected to return early next month remains a problem, though.
lfg!! much needed to help of this PP unit