The Maple Leafs Are At A Crossroads

The Maple Leafs are on a heater at the moment, and while it’s made some fans forget about their awful stretch of play to start the season, it was clear that the team was going through something, and it’s hard to put a name to it. Some might call it an identity crisis: the team is full of offensive talent yet chooses to play low-risk, safe hockey.

Others might say it’s the apparent outcome of losing Mitch Marner and not replacing him with another offensive star. Or maybe it was the injuries, which have tested the team’s depth. Whatever it was, Toronto is facing a crossroads, and the future of the roster is murky.

The team struggled to get off to a good start, but has been much better as of late. Where they go from here is anyone’s guess, as the team has been unpredictable up to this point in the season.

Even though they are finally winning, many Leafs fans seem indifferent as the team sits outside of a playoff spot. Toronto fans could be fatigued by a team that always seems to let them down when games matter most, or many folks in Ontario who are Maple Leafs fans may have had their interests shift after the magical run MLB’s Toronto Blue Jays went on just a few months ago. Whatever it is, the Maple Leafs  – the organization and roster – likely won’t go on for the rest of the season the way they are, which means something has to give.

Toronto is 7-1-2 in its last 10 games and has a positive goal differential on the year. But the results of late have been more of the same. They are great at home and terrible on the road, play great offense and below-average defense, and don’t play fast or tough enough. The Maple Leafs are the perfect candidate to make a shake-up move to change their fortunes, but what would that kind of move even look like?

Many fans would have liked to see Craig Berube fired before their most recent hot streak, but he is a highly respected Stanley Cup-winning coach who knows how to win. Would that kind of move change the fortunes of the Maple Leafs?

It could. It has happened before to other talented teams lumbering through mediocre seasons despite gifted rosters. The 2009 and 2016 Penguins come to mind as two examples of teams that fired their coach midseason and went on to win the Stanley Cup. More recently, the Blues fired head coach Mike Yeo in 2018, only to go on and win the Stanley Cup in 2019 with a new coach behind the bench – Berube.

But is firing Berube really the right move? It probably never was, and it definitely isn’t after their most recent stretch of play, especially given that the coaching market isn’t exactly ripe with great options for Toronto, and they would most likely be recycling a less-than-desirable option through Toronto, which probably makes it the wrong move.

What about a big trade? Well, that’s another issue for Toronto. They don’t have much to trade to acquire a player who can help now. Their prospect system is among the worst in the league, and they have just three picks in this year’s draft, none of which are in the first two rounds. They also don’t have a first-round pick in 2027 or a third-rounder.

This is before we even get to cap space, which they have very little of. Toronto could do some cap gymnastics, but at the moment, they have less than $3.4MM available at the deadline (per PuckPedia), which likely makes any significant move out of the question. Plus, do you want to move out more futures for short-term rentals when you don’t even know if this group is a playoff team?

The following month will say a lot about the Maple Leafs. If they continue to hover outside of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, they are probably best off seeing if they can move their UFAs and punt on this season. But if they continue the current run they are on, that will change the calculus going forward and put any coaching change talk among the fanbase to bed.

How can Toronto turn the corner and make sure it remains a consistent team? Simply put, they need to figure out which style of play maximizes the talent on their roster. Scott Laughton has been a black hole offensively since arriving in Toronto late last season, with just six goals and two assists in 30 games this year.

The same could be said for Calle Jarnkrok, who was once a consistent 30-to-40-point player but has just six goals in 29 games this season. They also need to figure out how to manage injuries to key players, including defenseman Chris Tanev and goaltender Anthony Stolarz.

It’s never easy to replace top players; however, teams find ways to do it and tread water until their players return. The Penguins faced a stretch this season without their entire second line, yet they remained in the playoff hunt despite arguably having a worse roster than the Maple Leafs. Teams rely on structure, work ethic and a next-man-up philosophy to overcome injuries, and Toronto needs to dig deep to do the same.

Lastly, there is the Marner issue, and it is perhaps the biggest. Fans had a close-up last night of Marner in Vegas’ overtime win over the Maple Leafs. Toronto never replaced Marner, and to be honest, they never could.

Stars leave massive holes in rosters when they depart, but good management groups find ways to plug the gaps, and the Maple Leafs haven’t done that. Some fans and pundits have suggested Toronto make a move for Stars forward Jason Robertson, but that move doesn’t have legs for many of the reasons previously stated (lack of cap space, lack of assets, etc.). But there are players out there that Toronto could look at as potential assets to add before the trade deadline, should they be in the hunt for a playoff spot.

At this stage of their contention window, the Maple Leafs can ill afford to finish in the middle and miss the playoffs entirely, losing their first-round pick. The best course for them is to make the postseason this year and try to make a run, but if they are going to miss the playoffs, it would likely be better to finish low enough in the standings to get a top 5 pick, retain their first-round pick for this season, and retool in the summer. This situation would push them to give up first-round picks in 2027 and 2028, but the hope would be that they could get a top prospect this year who could make an immediate NHL impact.