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July 1st Free Agent Frenzy Reflection

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The National Football League officially opened the 2017-18 league year yesterday at 4:00pm ET, and the annual onslaught of massive free agent signings has been ongoing ever since, keeping our friends over at Pro Football Rumors pretty busy. The NHL has a similar ritual, as flurry of free agent activity is common each and every July 1st, when a new hockey season officially begins. Last summer, a handful of huge contracts were handed out on July 1st. With the season winding down, how have those players performed in their first seasons? (Hint: mostly really bad)

Milan Lucic

Signed: Seven-year, $42MM deal with the Edmonton Oilers

2016-17 stats: 66 games, 14 goals, 22 assists, 36 points, -7 rating, 134 shots, 17:13 ATOI

Of all six players who received the biggest contracts on July 1st, Lucic is the only one on a team that appears to be a lock for the postseason in 2016-17. Now, that may say more about the effectiveness of hastily giving out money to the best players on the market, but Lucic at least deserves some credit. His offensive production doesn’t quite match up with his $6MM yearly price tag, but Lucic has added the same degree of grit and toughness that made him a fan favorite and Stanley Cup champion with the Boston Bruins. Lucic is always a physical threat on the ice and can make plays through his ability to crash the net and win battles along the boards. He’s never been able to score much more than 60 points per season, with just one 30-goal campaign in his career, but he earns his money through protecting the talented players on the ice while also having the ability to skate alongside them. Lucic is also spending an abnormal amount of time not in the penalty box, with just 41 penalty minutes as opposed to a career average closer to one hundred. Lucic is spending more time on the ice, most recently with his new line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle, than he is in the box, and as long as that continues, this contract will pay off for the Edmonton Oilers.

Kyle Okposo

Signed: Seven-year, $42MM deal with the Buffalo Sabres

2016-17 stats: 63 games, 19 goals, 24 assists, 43 points, -6 rating, 151 shots, 19:04 ATOI

Okposo may have been named an All-Star in his first season in Buffalo, but the Sabres were likely expecting more from their major 2016 investment. The Sabres were likely expecting more from the 2016-17 season overall, but Okposo’s lack of production doesn’t help the matter. As it stands, Okposo is on pace to have his worst scoring season since 2012-13 unless he picks up the pace over Buffalo’s final 15 games. At $6MM a year for six more seasons to come, the Sabres can only hope that Okposo hasn’t already begun his decline at just 28 years old. Okposo has looked good alongside Ryan O’Reilly for stretches this season, but there hasn’t been enough consistency. He is still a safer asset than many of the other older players on this list, but we’ll have to wait until next year to know for sure whether this was a bad call by Buffalo.

Andrew Ladd

Signed: Seven-year, $38.5MM deal with the New York Islanders

2016-17 stats: 62 games, 19 goals, 6 assists, 25 points, -11 rating, 112 shots, 15:56 ATOI

The Islanders have made an impressive comeback from a dismal beginning to 2016-17, but even if they find a way into the playoffs, that won’t be enough to make them feel good about the deal they gave Ladd this summer. At just 31 years old, no one could have predicted that the veteran winger would fall off a cliff this quickly. After scoring 46 or more points in each of the past six seasons, Ladd will be lucky to reach 3o this year. His $5.5MM cap hit over six more seasons could be yet another big mistake by a team with a long history of issues with long-term contracts. John Tavares and the Islanders can only hope that 2016-17 was a fluke and that they’ll get the real Ladd next season, but don’t count on it.

Loui Eriksson

Signed: Six-year, $36MM deal with the Vancouver Canucks

2016-17 stats: 65 games, 11 goals, 13 assists, 24 points, -9 rating, 132 shots, 18:41 ATOI

From bad to worse, we move from Ladd to Eriksson, who may be the worst signing of the summer at this point in time. After a stellar 63-point season with the Bruins in 2015-16, Eriksson signed a long-term deal worth $6MM annually in Vancouver, and the Canucks brass expected that his addition would keep the championship window opened a bit longer. Instead, the team has faltered and appears headed toward a rebuild. One of the main factors to this collapse has been an utter lack of production out of Eriksson. The Swedish winger supposed to put up huge numbers alongside Daniel and Henrik Sedin, but with a month to go, he has been off the top line for a while now has has less than half the points as he did at this time last year. Whether it is a poor fit or simply poor play, this signing could end up being a long-term headache for the Canucks if Eriksson can’t turn it around in 2017-18.

Frans Nielsen

Signed: Six-year, $31.5MM deal with the Detroit Red Wings

2016-17 stats: 62 games, 13 goals, 17 assists, 30 points, -17 rating, 125 shots, 17:09 ATOI

Though the streak of failures was over? Not yet. Nielsen left the Islanders this summer, like Okposo, to help keep the postseason hopes of the Detroit Red Wings alive, like Eriksson in Vancouver, and like Okposo and Eriksson he has struggled. Because of this, the Red Wings’ historic playoff streak is all but snapped and they are left scratching their heads with a roster full of veterans on long-term contracts who didn’t perform up to snuff in 2016-17. Nielsen may be the worst of the bunch, as his 30 points teeters on the edge of being the worst full season of his career. Beyond just the lack of production, Nielsen’s -17 rating is atrocious, especially compared with his numbers in New York, where he was considered a good two-way center. No one on the Red Wings has exceeded expectations this season – now that Thomas Vanek has been traded – but that’s no excuse for Nielsen. He finally got the big pay day he had always wanted, but if really wants to earn that yearly $5.25MM and stay in Detroit for the remaining five years, his play will need to pick up next season.

David Backes

Signed: Five-year, $30MM deal with the Boston Bruins

2016-17 stats: 59 games, 13 goals, 18 assists, 31 points, even rating, 140 shots, 17:21 ATOI

Finally we get to Backes, who despite scoring less than Okposo and not much more than the other two, can count his first season in Boston as a success. Backes has taken his fair share of criticism in 2016-17, but at the end of the day he has always been a two-way threat more than an offensive threat and has done well in that role this season. Backes’ 31 points is well behind his 45 points in St. Louis last year and 58 the year before, but the 32-year-old has also been asked to move from his old first-line center role to a top-six winger role this season, on a team that hasn’t been great at scoring goals. Despite all that, Backes may still end up with about 40 points, as he has been playing his best hockey of the year of late, now a member of the team’s top line with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand since the Bruins’ coaching change. Like the role Lucic once played in Boston, Backes has provided a dominant physical presence wherever he has played in the lineup this season and has contributed some offense along the way. Might the Bruins regret this contract in year four or five? Possibly, but for now Backes is a good fit and will continue to be this season, postseason, and beyond.

Vancouver Canucks Recall Alexandre Grenier From Utica

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The Canucks are getting some scoring help from the minor leagues. The team announced today that they’ve recalled Alexandre Grenier from the Utica Comets. The team missed Nikolay Goldobin last night with the flu and had to dress seven defensemen. The call-up is likely insurance against having to do that again in case Goldobin can’t go tomorrow night against Pittsburgh.

Grenier is 25 now, but has still not received a decent shot at an NHL job despite his size and proven scoring ability in the minor leagues. The 6’5″ forward has four straight AHL seasons of at least 16 goals and 39 points, yet has played just eight contests in with the Canucks. He was selected in the third round of the 2011 draft, and is perhaps now ready to take the next step in his professional career.

For the Canucks, giving Grenier an extended look as they continue to fight for the playoffs doesn’t seem like a bad idea. After the team sold assets at the deadline, and resigned themselves to a short rebuild, they’ve gone 2-1-2 and acquired six of a possible ten points. Just six points out of a playoff spot, the Canucks still at least have a reason to sell tickets down the stretch and giving players this time to see what they can bring to the table is expected. We’ll see if Grenier gets a chance in the lineup, or if he’s just up for insurance reasons.

Playoff Puzzle: Western Goaltending Experience

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Corey Crawford must feel like an old man these days. When the Chicago Blackhawks goaltender looks around at the creases of his main rivals in the Western Conference, one thing is constant: inexperience. He knows it well, from when he took on the Vancouver Canucks in 2011 as a rookie. At the other end of the rink was a 31-year old Roberto Luongo, who had already been through three playoff runs and was about to win the Jennings trophy for dominating in the regular season.

Crawford and the Hawks would lose in seven games, but it was an important step towards their cup win in 2013 when he would post a .932 save percentage—still the best mark of his career. It’s not easy to backstop a team to the Stanley Cup, even if you do have an excellent group in front of you. Just ask Martin Jones, who actually played his best hockey last year in the Finals against Pittsburgh, despite losing. It took a while for him to really find his groove and even then it wasn’t enough.

So when Crawford sees the standings and notices a trend among the biggest contenders, it might make him even more confident heading into this year’s tournament. Perhaps even if he is a bit older, that experience will pay off in the toughest two months of any sport.

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Canucks Non-Committal On Willie Desjardins’ Future

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The job security of Canucks head coach Willie Desjardins has been in question dating back to last season and it appears those questions will last for a little while yet.  In a recent interview on TSN 1040 in Vancouver (audio link), team president Trevor Linden didn’t exactly give Desjardins a glowing vote of confidence but certainly didn’t rule him out from returning either:

“I think we’re going to take our time and look at our options at the end of the season. I’ll have to do a full assessment of our organization, as I always do, and we’ll move forward from that point.”

It’s worth noting that around this time last year, Linden was unequivocal when answering a similar question about Desjardins, clearly stating that the decision had already been made to bring him back at that time.

The 59 year old is in his third season behind the Vancouver bench and has a 107-97-26 record through his first 230 games.  He’s been tasked with guiding a Canucks team that is at the end of their window of legitimate contention and are likely headed towards a rebuilding (or at least a retooling) process.

However, some of his decisions have been called into question and there is some cause for criticism for the way some of the young players have been handled, even though the likes of Bo Horvat and Troy Stecher, among other youngsters, have progressed this season.  If Linden has concerns about the way some young players are being deployed, the time may be right in the offseason to make a move.  That said, Desjardins has spent plenty of time working with young players at the junior level (plus one year in the AHL) so he should have a good handle on the situation the team is heading for.

If he were to be let go, TSN’s Darren Dreger suggested on TSN 1040 that there would likely be a market for him, going as far as noting that at least one team has already asked him about what he thinks will happen (transcription via Fan Rag’s Chris Nichols):

“But you know what’s interesting about that is I’ve actually had other teams – and I can’t be specific to the team or teams who have asked me – but I have been asked about Willie’s future and whether or not the sense is that Vancouver will go in a different direction. And the reason I’ve been asked is there are teams out there who see him as a prime candidate. He’s a respected coach from an NHL perspective.”

Given Linden’s statements about waiting until the end of the season before making a decision, it’s safe to say that Desjardins should be around through to mid-April so the questions about his future should get a short reprieve though only for a few weeks.

Snapshots: Canadiens, Ducks, Flames

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The Montreal Canadiens are cruising, winners of six straight games and leading the Atlantic by six points. They’ll have to continue to play short handed for a while though, as Alexander Radulov, Tomas Plekanec and Brian Flynn are all likely out for tomorrow’s matchup against the Calgary Flames. None of the three practiced this morning due to varying injuries, but the Canadiens are carrying enough players to fill their role should they be held out.

Radulov and Plekanec were both absent yesterday when the team slipped by the Vancouver Canucks in overtime, and Flynn was injured during the first period and did not return. In their absence, Andrew Shaw led the forwards in ice time with over 22 minutes, seven more than his average this season. They’ll likely ask Shaw to step up again tomorrow if all three are out, though perhaps Micheal McCarron will draw back in and take some of that weight.

  • John Gibson has been out since February 20th for the Anaheim Ducks, but Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register reports that he is with the team on their current road trip. The Ducks will face the Chicago Blackhawks and St. Louis Blues on back to back nights starting tomorrow, and could definitely use Gibson in one of the games. In his absence Jonathan Bernier has shouldered the load admirably, but saw a slip last night against Nashville. Asking him to play back to backs would be extreme, and would likely turn to Jhonas Enroth against the Blues if Gibson isn’t ready.
  • The Calgary Flames have seen a rejuvenated Micheal Ferland since moving him onto a line with Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau and now they’ll insert him periodically onto the first powerplay unit as well according to Pat Steinberg of Sportsnet. The young winger has continued to compete physically all over the ice and has five goals in his last seven games. Trailing only Troy Brouwer in hits on the club despite playing more than five minutes less a game than him, Ferland can create space for skilled players just by being on the ice with them.
  • Jannik Hansen finally showed up in San Jose after dealing with visa issues since his trade from the Vancouver Canucks. He was immediately rewarded with time on the first line according to Curtis Pashelka of the Mercury News. It looks like he’ll skate alongside Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski for his first game tomorrow night. With Kevin Labanc sent down, an opening was created beside the Sharks top duo and Hansen will get a crack at it to begin his San Jose career.

Canucks Notes: Goldobin, Markstrom, Tryamkin

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The Vancouver Canucks will welcome the Montreal Canadiens to town tonight as they look to stay relevant in the playoff race. The team currently sits six points back of St. Louis and though it is a very outside possibility, they want to stay in it as long as possible. They’ll have to shake up their lineup tonight, as Loui Eriksson will be out for “a week to two weeks” according to Willie Desjardins. In his place, the newly acquired Nikolay Goldobin will get a chance to skate with Bo Horvat and Sven Baertschi on the team’s second line. He’s excited about the prospect, and amazed at the amount of media talking to him prior to the game; “It wasn’t like this in San Jose!” he said before going on to say how happy he was to be in Vancouver.

  • The team also relayed the news that Jacob Markstrom is still “at least a week away”, but did skate before the practice by himself. Markstrom hasn’t played since February 16th but would be a big help to the Canucks down the stretch if he can get back. The 27-year old goaltender looks like he’ll get a shot at the starting job next year as Ryan Miller is a free agent this summer. Markstrom’s extension will come into play next year, which will see him paid $3.67MM per year for the next three seasons.
  • 22-year old Nikita Tryamkin has been a revelation for the Canucks this season, as he’s shown his capability to be a part of their defense going forward and showcased his big-hit ability early in the season. He has been out since February 19th though, and still isn’t quite ready to return. Despite skating earlier this morning with the team, he’ll miss his sixth straight game.

Snapshots: McQuaid, Goldobin, Koules

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Adam McQuaid is one lucky man. When Boston Bruins’ forward David Backes was upended last night against the New Jersey Devils, his skate nicked the throat of McQuaid. As the big defender dropped his gloves and skated off immediately, there were images of Clint Malarchuk and Richard Zednik flashing through the minds of many onlookers. It didn’t seem as bad as those two though and as it turns out, it wasn’t.

McQuaid received 25 stitches to close the laceration on his throat, and expects to be in the lineup tomorrow against the Ottawa Senators. Head coach Bruce Cassidy called him a “tough customer,” and he’s proving just that. McQuaid has been given extra ice time and responsibility of late, including breaking the 20-minute mark twice in his last five games.

  • Nikolay Goldobin is already making an impact in Vancouver, after scoring his second NHL goal in his Canucks debut on Saturday night. It came on a breakaway, something the Canucks hope Goldobin will see often in his time with the team. The talented forward came over in the Jannik Hansen deal, and as Ben Kuzma of The Province reports, will help lead a youth movement in the next few years. With Brock Boeser, Olli Juolevi, Adam Gaudette and Jonathan Dahlen all set to make an impact sooner than later, the Canucks may have kick-started a rebuild of their own when they chose to sell off two expiring veteran contracts at the deadline. Goldobin is just the first of many in Vancouver, and he puts it best when talking about the style he’ll bring: “there are no words, just let me show you and that will be easier.”
  • The Columbus Blue Jackets have brought in Miles Koules, signing him to a tryout with their AHL squad today according to Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch . The 22-year old forward is the son of former Tampa Bay Lightning owner Oren Koules, who you may recognize from the credits of the Saw movie franchise or Two and a Half Men. Koules had played in the ECHL this season, scoring 20 points in 36 games. He also played two contests for the Ontario Reign, in which he was held scoreless.

Snapshots: MacEwen, Tynan, Vermette

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The Vancouver Canucks have dipped their toes into the 20-year old free agent waters, signing undrafted center Zack MacEwen to a three-year entry-level contract. MacEwen is playing for the Gatineau Olympiques of the QMJHL where he often skates with Blue Jackets’ third-round pick Vitaly Abramov, one of the league’s top scorers.

Elliotte Friedman reports that both Ottawa and Tampa Bay had been in on MacEwen recently, before the Canucks eventually signed him. MacEwen is a point-per-game player for the first time in his junior career, scoring 62 in 59 games this season. He’ll join Matthew Highmore and many others as teams around the league start snapping up any talent that has slipped through the cracks.

Forgotten Futures: Checking In On Picks 3-5

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While Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine have dominated many of the headlines around the NHL since the moment they put on their respective sweaters on June 24th, 2016 there were other names picked that day that have received much less attention. Matthew Tkachuk has burst onto the scene in Calgary, recording an incredible 41 points in his rookie season (including more assists than either of the top 2) while Jakob Chychrun has steadily improved in the desert and is now logging 20 minutes a night as an 18-year old.

There were three other names taken between Laine and Tkachuk, and though their respective fan bases surely haven’t forgotten about their prized assets, drooling over the potential they bring while combing through box scores—that is if anyone combs through box scores anymore—the rest of the league might have. As we head past the trade deadline many teams look towards the future, hoping for a brighter sunrise next season and looking at comparables for their expected draft position this summer.

5th Overall Pick – Olli Juolevi (VAN)

The first defenseman picked in the draft was Olli Juolevi from the London Knights. The smooth skating defender that was heralded as a future #1 who could play in any situation has had an excellent, if a little underwhelming season for the Knights in 2016-17. Playing on a great team in front of a great goaltender, Juolevi has continued to rack up assists while being a main part of one of the stingiest defensive teams in the OHL. The Knights have allowed just 165 goals this season and Juolevi is one of the reasons why.

With 39 points in 49 games, he continues to produce in junior hockey, though a little less can be said about his performance at the World Juniors. Captaining a Finnish squad that was without almost all of their key players—including one we will speak of later—Juolevi didn’t impress much through the preliminary round. After his coach got fired midway through the tournament, Juolevi stepped up a bit but still finished with just two points in six games.

It’s hardly enough to judge him on, but Vancouver Canucks fans were likely hoping to see him take over the tournament all by himself and drag the Finnish team to the medal round. They should however be excited about the prospect that London will be in the OHL playoffs starting later this month, where Juolevi will try for a second crack at the Memorial Cup.

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The Day After: Racing To The Bottom

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The NHL trade deadline came and went yesterday with little excitement. Yes, some (but not all) of the rentals that were expected to move went to interesting destinations, but we didn’t have a single blockbuster move or real hockey trade. So now the quest begins for the Stanley Cup with much of the teams and players that we had a week ago, with a Steve Ott here and a Lauri Korpikoski there.

Now for many fans of teams who have been holding out hope for a late playoff push; those who sold many of their assets yesterday in a waving of the white flag for the 2016-17 season, a new journey begins. The quest for the first overall draft pick.

There is no fight, some might say, because of the Colorado Avalanche’s death-grip on last place in the NHL. They have just 37 points through 61 games and have a legitimate shot at becoming the first team to compile fewer than 50 points in a full season since the 1999-00 Atlanta Thrashers, an expansion team that won just 14 games. Colorado will finish last in the league, of that there is no doubt. But that by no means guarantees them the first overall pick

This year, with the addition of the Vegas Golden Knights the last place team will have just a 17.9% chance to select first, not a very good chance at all. The Arizona Coyotes are likely going to finish with the second worst record. With just 51 points they have an eight point “lead” on the Vancouver Canucks and have traded away several pieces. Auston Matthews

But that’s where it gets interesting. From the current third last team—those Canucks, who may have had the best deadline out of anyone—to the tenth worst is just six points. Beyond that the playoffs are just another handful of points away. The race for that third last spot is alive and well, and it could come with a big prize.

The 2017 draft class has been called weak, shallow and lacking impact talent. While it does in comparison to the past two—which featured generational talents not just first overall but second as well—it may be. But to think that it doesn’t house some incredible future NHL talent is ludicrous. It’s not like there are only third-line players available this season, and the battle for the top five should be as fierce as ever.

For teams that lack center depth (which is most of the NHL), this year gives you a choice of at least three phenomenal talents at the top of the board. Nolan Patrick, Nico Hischier and Gabe Vilardi all play very different styles, but will all likely have long and prosperous NHL careers. The rest of the first round is littered with talent down the middle: Michael Rasmussen, Casey Middelstadt, Cody Glass and Ryan Poehling all will likely go somewhere in the top half of the draft and all play mostly center.

While Vegas has thinned the odds slightly for everyone after that top pick, coming 28th in the league would still give you a 10% chance at drafting first, and even better odds at landing in that top three. Make no mistake, all the teams that sold yesterday—Vancouver, Detroit, and New Jersey in particular—are after that spot. They’ll say the right things, and the players won’t take a single second of any shift off, but in the back of the GMs mind he’s hoping that Bill Daly opens that card on lottery day and they see their logo emblazoned in gold.

The day after the deadline, and the race for the bottom has begun.

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