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Andreas Athanasiou

A Recent History Of Late-Summer RFA Signings

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The hockey world has been swirling around David Pastrnak for the past few days, as negotiations with the Boston Bruins drag on late into the summer. Fans of the team are beginning to get nervous that there might be something standing in the way of a long-term deal, even while the Bruins’ front office assures everyone that they won’t be moving on from their young star. It’s not just Pastrnak though, as this summer seems to have a disproportional amount of high-level restricted free agents still unsigned into the middle of August. Leon Draisaitl, Alexander Wennberg, Bo Horvat, Connor Brown, Damon Severson and Andreas Athanasiou and many more are waiting for their next contracts and inching closer and closer to missing some of training camp.

Naturally, anyone’s instinct is to think that the longer the negotiation goes on, the more animosity can be built between the two sides. This is simply not true, and it’s been shown time and again that some RFAs—especially those who are coming off exceptional seasons—are in for long negotiations. It’s hard to remember how many players make it late in the summer without contracts once the season begins, so here is some of the history of some high profile late-summer RFA signings the last few years:

2016

Sean Monahan signs on August 19th. Seven years, $44.6MM.

Cody Ceci signs on August 23rd. Two years, $5.6MM.

Ryan Strome signs on September 20th. Two years, $5.0MM.

Johnny Gaudreau signs on October 10th. Six years, $40.5MM.

Nikita Kucherov signs on October 11th. Three years, $14.3MM.

Rasmus Ristolainen signs on October 11th. Six years, $32.4MM.

2015

Jonathan Bernier signs on August 2nd. Two years, $8.3MM.

Brock Nelson signs on September 16th. Three years, $7.5MM.

2014

P.K. Subban signs on August 2nd. Eight years, $72MM.

Tyson Barrie signs on September 7th. Two years, $5.2MM.

Danny DeKeyser signs on September 20th. Two years, $4.4MM.

Nino Niederreiter signs on September 20th. Three years, $8MM.

Ryan Ellis signs on October 5th. Five years, $12.5MM.

Jaden Schwartz signs on October 5th. Two years, $4.7MM.

Ryan Johansen signs on October 6th. Three years, $12MM.

2013

Adam Henrique signs on August 27th. Six years, $24MM.

Mikkel Boedker signs on September 7th. Two years, $5.1MM.

Marcus Johansson signs on September 8th. Two years, $4MM.

Nazem Kadri signs on September 10th. Two years, $5.8MM.

Alex Pietrangelo signs on September 14th. Seven years, $45.5MM.

Derek Stepan signs on September 26th. Two years, $6.2MM.

Detroit’s Contract Pitfalls

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Detroit is currently dealing with one of the more contentious RFA negotiations in recent memory, as Tomas Tatar has refused a multi-year deal and is not happy with the franchise’s perception of him. The team also needs to negotiate a new contract for Andreas Athanasiou, a speedy center with flashy hands and a lot of upside. The major problem, however, is the cap space with which GM Ken Holland has to operate.

Detroit’s perilous situation is bizarre primarily because it has been largely self-inflicted, and unnecessarily so. The team already has an under-performing and vastly overpaid defensive group, but decided to bring in declining veteran Trevor Daley to a $3.17 MM, three-year deal. This places the team with $2.28 MM left in cap space while still needing to lock up Athanasiou and Tatar. It should be noted that 37 year-old Johan Franzen has been on long-term injured reserve since 2015, so they should be able to allocate his $3.95 MM salary to that reserve upon resumption of the season. Considering the apparently lax interpretation of the off-season rules, this effectively allows Holland $6.23 MM left to sign his two players. Theoretically, it could be enough, but in reality money will need to move out.

Tatar turned down a 5-year deal worth $5 MM per season, according to Michigan Live’s Ansar Khan. If that AAV isn’t enough, which it appears not to be, Holland is in a bit of a bind. Tatar was their only player to break 20 goals (25), and finished third on the team in points behind only Henrik Zetterberg and Gustav Nyquist. His offensive capabilities are pretty essential to a team hurting so badly for consistent production. Tatar wants his $6 MM, and there’s a good chance he’ll get it. Holland could try to deal Tatar before his arbitration date, but the return might not be as productive as Holland would like. If the parties do go to arbitration, Tatar will only need to sign for one season, which would almost assure his eventual departure.

Athanasiou will come cheaper and likely on a shorter term. If Holland can secure the player for under $2 MM, it would be a boon. The wiser move would be to try to extend the player on a longer deal in hopes that he becomes a bargain in the near future. Unfortunately, with the Tatar situation taking precedence, it seems an unlikely scenario. Even still, his measly $2 MM would put the Wings over the cap ceiling, even with Franzen on LTIR. So who would be on the outs?

Petr Mrazek was almost lost to the Vegas Golden Knights through the expansion draft, and with Jared Coreau playing stellar in the Grand Rapids, he seems the most likely candidate to move. He only costs $4 MM and after his down season, Holland would like to give Jimmy Howard the reigns back. Unfortunately, the Mrazek “attitude” rumors may have lessened his trade value. Perhaps even more importantly, the goaltending carousel has ground to a halt, with essentially every team securing a starter for the coming year.

Justin Abdelkader is on a really poor contract, complete with a no-trade clause, worth $4.25 MM AAV for the next six seasons. After a seven goal season, however, there won’t be many teams chomping at the bit for his services. Darren Helm didn’t fare much better offensively, but with a $3.85 MM contract and only four years on his deal, he’s not entirely unmovable. Again, he has a no-trade clause to complicate matters. There are the defensemen, such as Jonathan Ericsson, but with three years left and already declining at 33, he would also net little in return. Luke Glendening is an interesting option, as he is the cheapest of this group. Despite his two-way prowess, a forward with 3 goals in a season, even at a mere $1.8 MM, will still be a tough sell.

Ultimately, the Wings have overpaid a number of players and the contracts are for far too long. The amount of no-trade clauses handed out is an absurd hindrance when a team is trying to rebuild or retool. With 8 players on the roster with some sort of movement-limiting clause, Holland has few options to give himself relief. The worst case scenario would be to lose Tatar, but the team has truly painted itself into a corner regardless of who is shipped out. With an aging defense and an uninspiring offense, the Wings’ return to relevance will only be delayed from here on in.

Penguins’ 3rd-Line Center Options

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With the loss of Nick Bonino to Nashville via free agency, the reigning champion Pittsburgh Penguins have a gaping hole down the middle. For the first time in over a decade, the center position is now one of relative weakness. It’s always a possibility that Matt Cullen decides to re-sign for one more year, but he will not be able to carry the load of a typical 3rd-line center. Cullen showed signs of slowing down toward the tail-end of the team’s playoff run, and he was only averaging 13:55 a game through the regular season. At 41 years old, he simply won’t be a viable long-term option. The Penguins likely have high hopes for Zach Aston-Reese to make a push in training camp, but he is an unknown quantity at the NHL level. GM Jim Rutherford had 5 potential trade options in the works prior to July 1st, according to the very reliable Josh Yohe of DKPittsburghSports. Talks either fizzled or were put on the back-burner, but one might imagine the number of available targets is far fewer now. With Dallas’ three-year signing of Radek Faksa, there is one fewer name left for consideration. Vegas seems to be content with merely flipping defensemen from here on in, although names such as Cody Eakin and William Karlsson shouldn’t be thrown out entirely. Erik Haula is likely a pipe-dream, but he’s another possible target. Matt Duchene was linked for a time, but between the high cost and the stubbornness of Colorado GM Joe Sakic to make a move, he seems incredibly unlikely.

Who are the safest bets for an off-season move? Or will Pittsburgh enter the season with someone unproven slotting behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin?

Tyler Bozak

Bozak has made tons of sense since his name was first mentioned. A lot has been made of his relationship with Phil Kessel. When they played on a line together in Toronto, Kessel saw some of his best career production. More than that however – the Leafs are in a bit of cap pinch as they will look to free up dollars for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in the next two seasons. They certainly aren’t in any hurry to drop underneath the ceiling due to LTIR intricacies, but moving out Bozak’s $4.2 MM for this next season would be a forward looking move. If he’s due a raise, it’s likely they’ll lose him for far less, as his contract expires at the end of 2017-18. The move makes sense for Pittsburgh because of the Kessel relationship, but also because he fits the mold of the Pittsburgh squad. He’s a solid skater, sees the ice well, and hustles back into his own zone. His playmaking abilities would be a wonderful fit on the cheap to aid the high-powered offense, and the player would be a positive possession asset to remove the stress from the bigger guns. Bozak does have a modified no-trade clause, but it’s hard to see Pittsburgh being included on his list of non-tradeable teams.

Jordan Staal

Staal saw a lot of success in Pittsburgh before he was traded away to Carolina at the 2012 draft. Jordan was traded to that team in particular due to his desire to player with his older brother Eric Staal. Seeing as Eric is no longer in the picture, it would make sense that Staal might be open to a Pittsburgh reunion. Staal is one of the better defensive centers in the league, and has been forced to take a more uncomfortably offensive role in Carolina. Staal’s biggest downside is that he isn’t the most agile skater, but he’s not any slower than Nick Bonino was. That said, he can play the shutdown role and be a total nuisance for top opponents. Rutherford loves the player, as he was the GM of Carolina when they initially acquired the player, for a hefty sum of Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin, and a 1st-round pick (which became Derrick Pouilot). According to Yohe, Staal is apparently open to a return, and the nostalgic element of the team’s fanbase is clamoring for this to happen. Rutherford stated on a local radio segment with Ron Cook that “to his knowledge he (Staal) isn’t available”, but he’s played coy with the media in the past.

Out Of Left-Field

Rutherford has been known to throw the hockey world for a loop with some of his trades. The James Neal–Patric Hornqvist trade shocked just about everyone, and the Phil Kessel trade is still being discussed to this day. If there’s one thing we should expect from him, it’s the unexpected. There are a few lesser options out there for Rutherford to explore, and management may want to have the Conor Sheary and Brian Dumoulin contracts put to paper before making any sort of transaction. It seems unlikely that anything will happen until those deals get done. Rutherford told Jason Mackey of the Post-Gazette that there are “hundreds of names on (his list)”, and that it’s “a patient process”. Could Detroit be willing to move Andreas Athanasiou? Could Bryan Little be pried from Winnipeg for a young defenseman? It’s hard to speculate as to where exactly management have set their sights, but Rutherford is generally willing to overpay to “get his man”. There is the slight likelihood that they enter the season with that hole left unfilled, but it’s hard to imagine. Until more dominoes fall, Rutherford is likely to bide his team and search for the correct deal.

Red Wings Notes: Blashill, Rasmussen, Sadowy

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Detroit Red Wings head coach Jeff Blashill has a message for fans regarding summer hockey: temper your excitement. Blashill tells MLive’s Brendan Savage that summer hockey “isn’t real hockey” and goes to acknowledge that while it’s exciting to see hockey in July, it isn’t what it appears. From Savage:

“I used to recruit lots (as a college coach) and we’d go to tryout camps and watch them and you always had to temper it because it’s not real hockey. Again, for me, it’s just a good first glance, gives me a little better feel come main camp for most of these guys.”

Meanwhile, ninth overall pick Michael Rasmussen sat out a scrimmage due to a wrist injury from February. Savage reports that it was precautionary, and that he hasn’t indicated any issues with the injury after two days.

  • A number of Red Wings blogs are at development camp and have done detailed write ups on the prospects participating. Winging It In Motown writer SlapshotGoal featured Rasmussen, specifically writing about his skating ability that many scouts, analysts, and fans were quick to criticize. The article goes on to say that it’s “baffling” how so many critique his skating, and she goes on to write an in-depth piece (with video) that reveals a skating ability that may be very underrated. Drawing comparisons to speedsters Dylan Larkin, and Andreas Athanasiou, she writes that Rasmussen is able to make adjustments “on the fly” and noting that between his speed, effortless stride, and body control, it gives him a “fluid gracefulness.”  This type of analysis should quiet some critics, and give Rasmussen the benefit of the doubt in being a top ten pick.
  • With a roster that needs to younger, Detroit Free Press beat writer Helene St. James writes that prospect Dylan Sadowy has impressed Grand Rapids coach Todd Nelson, despite a season that seemed to show a step back for him as a goal scorer. Nelson cautions patience because Sadowy is so young and there is a jump from the OHL to the AHL. Sadowy was told by Detroit brass to work on his conditioning, believing it will go a long way in helping his game. Sadowy spent time with the Toledo Walleye of the ECHL in addition to the Griffins, registering 10 points (5-5) in 44 games between both squads.

Eastern Notes: Liljegren, Bozak, Athanasiou

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Toronto’s first round pick Timothy Liljegren has impressed in development camp with his size and skill, working with Stephane Robidas. At a healthy 6’4 and after being projected to go much earlier, some Leafs fans have hoped that they might get a glimpse of the young Swede on the backend. Outside of pre-season, that doesn’t seem to be the case. In all likelihood, it seems Liljegren will be headed back to Sweden or to the Ontario Hockey League, according to his own comments on NHL.com. The Leafs’ defense is particularly deep, so it was always a long-shot to see him crack the squad. Management won’t look to rush him into a roster spot, and that seems a wise decision. Regardless of his very apparent ability, further development at a lower level will only improve his staying power in the NHL.

  • As mentioned in an earlier PHR post, the New York Post’s Larry Brooks mentioned Tyler Bozak as a potential target for the Rangers. But it also seems probable he could land elsewhere. Many teams are on the hunt for cheap center help, and with Toronto looking towards their future contract obligations, Bozak seems rather expendable. Pittsburgh is absolutely in need, and he would be a phenomenal fit with Phil Kessel, considering their past chemistry. Another team who is very willing to make moves at the moment is Arizona. They already stole a valuable player in Derek Stepan, but GM John Chayka seems adept in transaction and eager to engage the trade market. Adding Bozak would add some two-way ability and allow other players, such as Christian Dvorak, to slot back into more natural roles. After apparently missing out on the Matt Duchene sweepstakes, Bozak could even be a decent option for 3rd pivot in Nashville. Bozak will draw lots of attention if and/or when he is shopped.
  • The Red Wings are not looking to make many moves at the moment, according to Michigan Live’s Ansar Khan. The Tomas Tatar negotiations are apparently not going well. Khan believes the team could look to move him later on, but both parties expect him to play the bulk of the season before that option is considered. Andreas Athanasiou would be another option to move, but again Khan believes the team will see how well it does in battling for a post-season berth before heading in that direction. GM Ken Holland seems to be relatively content with the group he has, and with few off-season moves it could be another rough year in Detroit if certain players don’t make incredible strides.

East Notes: Kuznetsov, Spooner, Athanasiou, Melanson

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Last weekend, the Capitals wasted little time locking up center Evgeny Kuznetsov to an eight year, $62.4MM deal and flipped Marcus Johansson to New Jersey to free up some cap space.  Newsday’s Arthur Staple reports that part of the reason that the Kuznetsov contract came together so quickly was the potential for an offer sheet.  Although there’s no word on which team may potentially have been sniffing around, it’s still interesting that even the possibility of one impacted the timetable for Kuznetsov.

Other notes from around the league:

  • Bruins forward Ryan Spooner was among the players to file for arbitration earlier this week. He’s coming off a contract that had a cap hit of just $950K and despite a bit of a down season compared to 2015-16, he still should be in line for a notable raise.  CSN New England’s Joe Haggerty suggests that a one year deal between $2-3MM seems to be a likely outcome given his 39 point season.  Spooner has long been the subject of trade speculation and if he is still in play, it may be more wise for GM Don Sweeney to try to move him before the hearing comes up.
  • Although Detroit is likely to be right up near the upper limit when they reach a new deal with winger Tomas Tatar, they’re not likely to move their other restricted free agent of note in winger Andreas Athanasiou, notes MLive’s Ansar Khan. While the 22 year old was in and out of the doghouse at times, he still has a combination of speed and finishing ability that would be hard to give up on unless he was part of a package for a top pairing defenseman which is highly unlikely.  Khan adds that the lack of cap space the Red Wings will have also plays a factor here as even if they decided to look at moving Athanasiou, they’d be restricted to trying to match money which would basically limit them to players on or near their entry-level contract, prospects, or picks.
  • The Devils announced the hiring of Roland Melanson as their new goaltending coach, replacing Chris Terreri. Melanson has previously served in that role with Montreal and Vancouver and will be reunited with one of his former netminders with the Canucks in Cory Schneider;  he was Schneider’s coach for three seasons.  The team also noted that Terreri will remain with the organization in a yet-to-be-determined capacity.

Red Wings Notes: Tatar, Athanasiou, DeKeyser, Nelson

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With Tomas Tatar and Andreas Athanasiou still waiting on contracts, the Athletic’s Craig Custance projects what they could earn once they sign on the dotted line. Tatar has been one of the few Red Wings scoring at a regular clip and his deal should be around $4.3MM per year. Term and dollars will be important to both parties, and Custance calls this the “tricky” notion of Tatar’s deal. Tatar potted 25 goals last season and is deserving of a significant raise. Meanwhile, Athanasiou is still relatively young, though many can already see how his devastating speed and scoring prowess could quickly translate into multiple 20 goal seasons, and possibly, 30. The Wings, according to Custance, could get him around a $1.9MM AAV because of his lesser time in the NHL. But if the trends continue, Athanasiou will come at a bridge bargain now, while getting a significant pay raise later.

  • Defenseman Danny DeKeyser has become somewhat of a pariah for some Red Wings fans, but The Athletic’s Jack Han takes a closer look at the somewhat predictable decline in DeKeyser’s play and numbers. Signed by Detroit as an unrestricted free agent in 2013, DeKeyser flourished in the top six under Mike Babcock and earned the nickname “the human eraser” for his staunch commitment to his end of the ice while keeping opposing scorers in check. All of this changed, according to Han, when new coach Jeff Blashill took over and the defensive corps weakened.Apr 15, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Detroit Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser (65) during the first period of the game two of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Detroit Red Wings at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY SportsDeKeyser was given top pair minutes, which exposed him against the better players on opposing squads. Worse, the generous contract from general manager Ken Holland only increased the scrutiny on his play, especially after a disastrous season in 2016-17. Is DeKeyser truly as bad as some think? Han doesn’t think so. He takes a look at Corsi and Scoring Chances to quantify DeKeyser’s value and after a thorough job, notes that DeKeyser certainly isn’t deserving of high end minutes. Regardless of where he does end up, it’s destined to be a rough road with a Red Wings blue line that isn’t exactly top tier.
  • With the hiring of Rick Tocchet in Arizona, Calder Cup Champion and current Grand Rapids bench boss Todd Nelson will remain with the Griffins. Nelson, hired back in 2015, has guided the Griffins to a second round showing in 2015-16, and a championship in 2016-17. The Red Wings are looking at infusing more youth into the lineup and Nelson steered much of that young talent with a steady hand. Having Nelson in Grand Rapids gives the organization peace of mind knowing that the development of several critical players, notably Evgeny Svechnikov, will be overseen by one of the best in the AHL.

Free Agent Focus: Detroit Red Wings

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The free agent period is now less than one week away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of Detroit’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: Winger Tomas Tatar has been the Red Wings most consistent scorer over the past couple seasons and is due for a large raise as a result. Though he played with a shoulder injury for much of the season, Tatar still managed to pot 25 goals. The wrinkle with Tatar is that he could still be used as a trade chip should Detroit general manager Ken Holland seek a defensive upgrade. But this seems unlikely. Holland rarely pulls the trigger on deals, despite being known to say that he’s “working the phones.” Expect Tatar to re-sign for somewhere around the money Gustav Nyquist received, possibly getting more.

C Andreas Athanasiou: Another player rumored to be used as a trade chip, Athanasiou is a dynamic, game breaking forward who uses his speed and hands to generate scoring chances while creating highlight reel goals. Despite this, the Red Wings brass and coaching staff have chided Athanasiou for his lack of defensive play and this could pull back some of the dollars he could see. The Red Wings are in somewhat of a strange flux with their roster, and Athanasiou is one of the bright spots on the roster. He’ll see a bump from his entry-level deal, especially since Detroit will need to be more reliant upon him this year.

Other RFA’s: Xavier Ouellet, Robbie Russo, Martin Frk, Jake Paterson, Brian Lashoff

Key Unrestricted free agents: LW Drew Miller – Miller isn’t so much a “key” UFA player as he is an indication of what the Red Wings brass truly values. Miller, at best, is  a fringe fourth liner in the NHL. Though a “penalty kill specialist,” numbers revealed that the Red Wings penalty kill hardly missed Miller when he was sent down to AHL affiliate Grand Rapids last season. The point? The Red Wings must hand off ice time to younger, faster, more skilled players. Re-signing Miller reveals that the Red Wings still don’t trust their young players and worse, will yield very little in the way of production from Miller.

Other UFA’s: Joe Vitale, Ben Street, Dylan McIlrath, Mitch Callahan, Edward Pasquale

Projected Cap Space: Via CapFriendly, the Red Wings have close to $8MM ($7,902,955 to be exact). This money will be used to essentially re-sign everyone within the organization and leave maybe $2-$3MM for an unrestricted free agent. Though Dan Girardi is out there, it makes little sense for Detroit to throw large sums of money on a defenseman who is clearly declining. Saving the money and possibly trying to upgrade via trade would be Detroit’s best option.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Expansion Primer: Detroit Red Wings

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We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

Missing the playoffs for only the first time in 25 years, the Detroit Red Wings plan on rebuilding but still keeping the playoffs in their sights. Detroit is in an interesting situation as they hold a slew of draft picks, and a number of contracts they could expose, giving some relief if one is taken.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar (RFA), Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm, Riley Sheahan, Luke Glendening, Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou (RFA), Frans Nielsen (NMC),

Defensemen:

Mike Green, Jonathan Ericsson, Danny DeKeyser, Niklas Kronwall, Nick Jensen, Xavier Ouellet (RFA).

Goaltender:

Jimmy Howard, Petr Mrazek, Jared Coreau

Notable Exemptions

Dylan Larkin, Johan Franzen.

Key Decisions

One of the chief reasons the Red Wings have lost their footing as a contender is not only a lack of high draft picks, but some disastrous decisions when it came to handing out contracts. Though I have written about this before, it bears repeating that under general manager Ken Holland, the Red Wings will always be loyal and choose to, as Holland always says, “draft and develop” before looking elsewhere for help. This is a key point to keep in mind as decisions are to be made. One of the biggest knocks on Holland is that he falls in love with his players–especially those he drafted.

One of the simplest ways Detroit could get salary cap room would be by protecting those who are absolutely necessary and allowing several high priced players to be exposed. Holland stipulated that he will be going with the 7-3-1 format when it comes to keeping players, and that will allow for some higher priced players to be exposed. Additionally, Holland has made it clear he will not part with draft picks in order to move contracts. Options, then, are aplenty.

Henrik Zetterberg will be protected because of his role as captain, and the all but guaranteed moment of his number hanging from the rafters. Barring some sort of crazy change, Zetterberg will be protected.

Feb 12, 2017; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Detroit Red Wings forward Riley Sheahan (15) during a game between the Minnesota Wild and Detroit Red Wings at Xcel Energy Center. The Wild defeated the Red Wings 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Riley Sheahan is a curious case. Sheahan struggled mightily, scoring two goals all season, both coming in the final game of the year. Still young and only a $2M cap hit, he could be snapped up. Sheahan has to be due for a bounce back, and with a hodgepodge of new talent and a fresh start in Vegas, it could be a boon for him professionally.  It’s a risk the Wings have to look at, being that the bounce back could also occur in Hockeytown.

Abdelkader is also an interesting case. He is owed a lot of money ($4.25MM AAV) through 2023, and hasn’t produced to justify the expense. But this is where Holland’s loyalty comes in. It’s highly unlikely Vegas would take him at that hit for the next six years while the Red Wings are believed to be grooming Abdelkader as the next captain of the team. Expect Abdelkader to be on the protected list. But rolling the dice and putting Abdelkader out there would not only allow them to hold onto a cheaper player who seems prone for a bounce back, but also provides the chance of getting significant cap relief should Abdelkader be selected.

Darren Helm and Luke Glendening at this point are role players who both hold higher cap hits ($3.85MM and $1.8MM respectively). Helm has traditionally been a third line center while Glendening spends the majority of his time on the fourth. They should both be exposed.

Finally, a quirk in CBA wording made Anthony Mantha eligible for the expansion draft. Holland will have no choice but to include him on the list. Detroit blog Winging It In Motown did a great job of breaking down the verbiage in the CBA that makes Mantha eligible.

Projected Protection List

F – Henrik Zetterberg
F – Anthony Mantha
F – Andreas Athanasiou
F – Frans Nielsen (NMC)
F – Justin Abdelkader
F – Tomas Tatar
F – Gustav Nyquist

D – Mike Green
D – Xavier Ouellet
D – Danny DeKeyser

G – Petr Mrazek

The goalie situation is another precarious case for the Wings, as Mrazek, who was anointed the starter last year, struggled to gain form and saw Howard take over the top spot until injury caught up with him. Coreau just backstopped the Grand Rapids Griffins to a Calder Cup trophy and comes very cheap as  an NHL backup, especially with little NHL experience to his name. The choice here would have to be Mrazek, as Howard has only a couple years left and can rarely stay healthy enough to maintain a #1 job. Youth and Mrazek’s potential are reasons to protect him. The Czech netminder has flashes of brilliance and should Detroit restock with a stalwart defense and supportive scoring, it’s not out of the question that Mrazek could be one of the best in the league.

Oct 30, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Red Wings goalie Petr Mrazek (34) is pulled out and replaced by goalie Jimmy Howard (35) during the second period against Florida Panthers at Joe Louis Arena. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

On defense, the Wings will protect both Green and DeKeyser, the latter who they re-signed to a large deal that was panned by many, especially after DeKeyser sputtered last season. Still relatively young at 27, the Wings are trying to find a #1 or 2 defenseman that would ease the pressure on DeKeyser. The real question comes in at who to protect after that. The loyalty piece of Holland could put Kronwall on the list of protected because of his time in Detroit. The 36-year-old defenseman has been lauded for his leadership abilities as well. But that leaves a number of young talent exposed, namely Ouellet, and Jensen. The better bet is that Kronwall will be exposed, and the Wings will protect Ouellet over Jensen. Their numbers were similar this season, but Ouellet, just about three years younger than Jensen, seems the smarter choice to place on the protected list. It is highly unlikely that Kronwall will be taken, being that he experienced a major dip in play last season due to a nagging knee injury. His mobility and skating ability isn’t close to what it once was.

The takeaway with the Red Wings is that they are truly a team in transition. Their building blocks for nearly a decade are aging, they have question marks in net, and defensively, there is no clear cut number one or number two defensemen.  While they don’t have a lot to lose in terms of talent, Holland will most likely defer to youth rather than loyalty when making his final choices.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Atlantic Division Snapshots: Pastrnak, Brassard, Red Wings

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Despite a first round elimination at the hands of the Ottawa Senators, the 2016-17 campaign has to be considered a success for the Boston Bruins organization. The team returned to the postseason after back-to-back non-playoff seasons and showed tremendous resilience during their six-game series loss, nearly overcoming injuries to key regulars Brandon Carlo, David Krejci, Torey Krug and Adam McQuaid to push Ottawa to OT in game six. Perhaps the silver lining to the season was the development of young Czech winger David Pastnak, who in his third year saw a marked increase across the board in terms of offensive production, setting career-highs in goals (34) assists (36) and points (70). Pastrnak stuggled some in the postseason, finishing with just five shots on goal and regularly turning the puck over, but as Joe Haggerty of CSNNE writes, the 20-year-old will be a better player long term in part because of the playoff experience.

Pastrnak also wrapped up his ELC, making him a RFA this summer. Boston will have a decision to make; do they try to lock up the talented offensive right wing to a long term deal or employ a short term bridge contract to keep the AAV down? Should the team choose the latter, Haggerty speculates a deal similar to that given by Chicago to Artemi Panarin (two years, $12MM) could work for both sides. If Boston chooses the former, they might have to approach the value of the accord signed by Calgary winger Johnny Gaudreau last summer, in Haggerty’s estimation. According to Cap Friendly, the Bruins are projected to have around just $10MM in cap space available with Drew Stafford set to hit unrestricted free agency and Ryan Spooner joining Pastrnak as a RFA. The team should have room as it stands to accommodate a new Pastrnak contract regardless of whether it’s a lucrative long term pact or a shorter term bridge deal. Still, what Boston does will likely have a great impact on what other moves the team can make this summer to fill holes on the roster.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Division:

  • One of the second round’s more interesting subplots involves Ottawa center Derick Brassard facing his old team, the New York Rangers, and the player for whom he was acquired just last July, fellow pivot Mika Zibanejad. Expecting to contend for the playoffs in 2016-17, Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion wanted to add the more experienced and established Brassard to his lineup. It also didn’t hurt that the skilled center from Hull, Quebec is a proven playoff performer known in some circles as “Big Game Brass.” For their part, the Rangers needed to get bigger and younger and did so by adding the talented Zibanejad to the team. Neither player had the regular season they hoped – Brassard finished with just 14 goals and 39 points while Zibanejad missed time with a broken leg and scored 37 points in 56 contests. With scoring expected to be at a premium in the series between Ottawa and New York, it was widely felt whoever performed better between the two would give their team a significant edge. Well, after one game, Don Brennan of the Ottawa Sun has the two players even, though the Senators are up in the series. As Brennan noted, neither player registered a point and both finished with roughly 17 minutes of ice time. Brassard was credited with five shots on goal, Zibanejad with four. While it would be unfair to paint the winner of the series as also the winner of last summer’s trade, it’s evident the two players will be heavily relied upon to help their respective team advance to the Eastern Conference Final and at this point in the season that’s really all that matters.
  • With their 25-season playoff streak broken, the Detroit Red Wings enter the offseason with a lot of work to do to reshape their roster into a contender, and without the resources (i.e. cap space) to easily tackle the challenge. In all probability, the team will be forced seek roster improvement via the trade market and with limited chips the team can afford to move, it’s likely Detroit will have to deal one of their starting-caliber goalies, if for no other reason than to open up much-needed cap space. Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press expressed the same belief in a recent mailbag feature. As the scribe notes, the Wings are currently projected to have less than $6MM in cap space with key forwards Andreas Athanasiou and Tomas Tatar scheduled to be RFA’s. The offseason goalie market is expected to be full of starting options, with Pittsburgh likely to entertain a trade of Marc-Andre Fleury rather than risk losing Matt Murray in the expansion draft. Ben Bishop, Brian Elliott, Jonathan Bernier and Ryan Miller headline the UFA crop of netminders and could represent viable starting options for any team looking for a #1. Those factors will hamstring the Red Wings in their attempt to move either Jimmy Howard or Petr Mrazek in return for fair value. In all likelihood, the team will have to be satisfied primarily with cap relief as opposed to acquiring young assets to further their retooling effort. Although St. James does offer up one intriguing possibility, noting that current Stars GM Jim Nill, formerly an assistant GM in Detroit, knows Mrazek and Howard well from his time with the Wings and could pursue one in an effort to upgrade his options between the pipes.

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