Now that the dust has settled on the Quinn Hughes trade to the Minnesota Wild and the superstar defenseman has settled into the Twin Cities, it’s fair to speculate about his future and whether it will include the Wild. Hughes is a little over 18 months away from becoming an unrestricted free agent. At a time when many superstars are taking the guaranteed money and staying put, it will be interesting to see whether he forgoes the free market for stability with the Wild. Hughes’ free agency case could be a landmark one, with so few players going to UFA and a salary cap soaring.
While the 27-year-old is a UFA on July 1, 2027, he can sign an extension in about six months. With the new CBA rules that cap the term at seven years instead of the previous eight, it could impact the term that Hughes will take. Does he lock in for the seven years early with his current team – or still eight if he signs before Sep. 15 – or will the allure of going to market convince him to accept a six-year term? The money will be there for Hughes either way, as will the term, but whether he wants to leave money on the table will be up to him.
In early October, Matt Sekeres and Blake Price discussed with Daily Faceoff’s Jeff Marek the potential for Hughes to become the NHL’s first $20MM player. Marek didn’t outright say he believed Hughes could become that player. Still, he did discuss the cascading effect of other players around the NHL coming to terms on lucrative deals, which will no doubt impact Hughes’ negotiations.
Many wondered if Connor McDavid could become the NHL’s first $20MM man, but he punted that opportunity and opted to remain in Edmonton at his current rate of $12.5MM. Hughes could make a similar move to McDavid and take a short-term deal at a discounted rate, but given that he was just traded, one has to think he won’t feel the same loyalty to the Wild that McDavid showed to the Oilers. Another wrinkle for Minnesota in getting Hughes to sign for a discount is that the Wild has already demonstrated they will pay a superstar’s market value to retain them, as they did with Kirill Kaprizov when they signed him to his massive record-setting extension earlier this year.
Given that the cascading effect is in play, there’s no greater impact than looking over at a talented teammate who got every cent they wanted and believing you should get it too. No one knows whether Hughes feels that way except himself, but with the allure of the free market and the temptation of playing with his brothers on a talented team in New Jersey, it’s hard to believe Hughes is going to leave money on the table to sign with the Wild.
That’s what makes the possibility of Hughes hitting a $20MM AAV all the more likely. The Wild gave up a ton to get the defenseman and aren’t going to let him walk for nothing. So, they have one of two choices: pay him what he wants or trade him after this season.
But who are Hughes’s comparables, and what kind of money is realistic on a long-term contract? The best comparable to Hughes is fellow defenseman Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche. Hughes and Makar have flipped the Norris Trophy in recent seasons as the league’s top defenseman. At this point, Makar is a step or two ahead of Hughes in terms of numbers and hardware. Makar has 470 points in 431 games, along with two Norris Trophies and a Calder Trophy, while Hughes has a single Norris Trophy and 435 points in 464 games. This also doesn’t factor in Makar’s Stanley Cup ring or his 4 Nations win this past year. Both men are slated to become free agents at the same time, which should make the parallel negotiations fascinating to watch. Outside of Makar and Hughes, there really is no comparable from a contract standpoint.
Thomas Harley of the Dallas Stars is a possibility after signing a long-term extension two months ago. Still, he isn’t nearly the contributor Hughes is and was only a restricted free agent next summer. Harley does have youth on his side, as he is just 24, but he doesn’t have a resume close to Hughes’ and isn’t in the same stratosphere offensively with just 117 points in 223 career NHL games. Harley is still a terrific player, but his $10.587MM cap hit isn’t remotely close to the number Hughes should command.
Odds are, Makar will ink his deal first, as he is pretty comfortable in Colorado and they have the cap space to make him a top offer, which should eclipse Kaprizov’s $17MM AAV if he goes for full value. As Tyler Yaremchuk and Carter Hutton discussed on DFO Live back in October, the escalating cap is going to allow guys like Makar to call their shots on their next deals. Still, there is no way to gauge whether money will be the driving force for Makar, or for Hughes, for that matter.
While Makar and Hughes will be linked by their free agency timelines and play, the similarities taper off after that. Hughes has family dynamics at play and no personal connection to his team yet. Those dynamics will be primary considerations for both players and could change the money they are ultimately willing to play for. Makar has been part of a winning environment for quite some time, while Hughes has two brothers playing on the same team and a potential path to join them in New Jersey. Makar has better career numbers than Hughes, but as we saw with Connor McDavid, loyalty, fit, family, and friendship can shave millions off a player’s cap hit. In the case of Hughes and Makar, time will tell if that happens.
Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images.
Where will he land is the bigger question.
8/$13.5M sounds about right.