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Snapshots: Datsyuk, Faulk, Karlsson, Sutter

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Despite some initial speculation early this off-season, it seems an NHL comeback for Pavel Datsyuk is unlikely. Speaking to Helene St. James of The Detroit Free Press, agent Dan Milstein stated that Datsyuk’s probable landing spot remains his home town of Yekaterinburg with the KHL’s Avtomobilist. A free agent after wrapping up a very successful three-year stint with SKA St. Petersburg, Datsyuk made it known that he was leaving SKA and was hoping to land somewhere more familiar to he and his family. The 40-year-old center’s NHL rights are currently owned by the Arizona Coyotes, but they expire on July 1st with the start of the new league year. As such, there was some thought that he could return to the Detroit Red Wings, where he spent all 14 years of his NHL career. Datsyuk would be joining a team now run by fellow Red Wings legend Steve Yzerman and even in his advanced age, Datsyuk would have had the chance to return to a key role for Detroit. Although he recently visited the city and reportedly spoke to Yzerman and company, Milstein maintains that Datsyuk is more likely to settle into a cushy role in Yekaterinburg. “We are meeting in the coming days to discuss options and future plans,” Milstein said, but it seems that the decision is already close to being made. “It’s very likely Pavel will live up to his promise of playing for his hometown team in Russia.”

  • In an article offering up some trade suggestions over the waning days of the NHL postseason for those teams no longer in the running, USA Today’s Kevin Allen notes that teams may not want to waste their time trying to pry a defenseman out of Carolina. The Hurricanes succeeded this season largely because of their strength on the back end and GM Don Waddell appears more concerned with maintaining that depth rather than leveraging it. Allen reports that the team is engaged in extension talks with long-time stalwart Justin Faulk, whose current contract expires after next season. Allen adds that the team is not interested in dealing Faulk or any of their top-four defensemen at this time, which certainly includes Dougie Hamilton, Jaccob Slavin, and Brett Pesce, but may also include their big free agent addition from last summer, Calvin de Haan. The one defenseman who might have been dangled as trade bait is Trevor van Riemsdyk who, like Faulk, has only one year remaining on his contract. However, a long-term injury that will see van Riemsdyk on the sidelines to begin the season will probably put a damper on any trade talks. van Riemsdyk’s early-season absence will also allow youngsters Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean to see some NHL ice time, keeping all blue line parties content through another season at least.
  • Offer sheets remain a rare occurrence in the NHL – the last came in 2013 – but that doesn’t stop talk from spreading every off-season that one of the top restricted free agents could finally land such an offer. One prominent RFA whose name has not been associated with an offer sheet thus far, perhaps should be, writes David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Schoen believes that center William Karlsson is a prime candidate for an offer sheet this summer. The Vegas Golden Knights are already buried in payroll and the off-season has yet to begin. CapFriendly estimates that they are already over the projected $83MM ceiling for next season, yet still have Karlsson, Nikita Gusev, Malcolm Subban, and others to re-sign. The Knights will be forced to move out salary regardless, but a substantial offer sheet signed by Karlsson may be too much for Vegas to match. Specifically, Schoen names the Carolina Hurricanes, Ottawa Senators, Minnesota Wild, and Detroit Red Wings as potential suitors, citing cap space and need for all four teams.
  • While it is not a done deal, the Los Angeles Kings don’t appear worried about losing one of their key free agents. Fox Sports’ Jon Rosen reports that the Kings are close to extending Brett Sutter, the captain of the AHL’s Ontario Reign. Sutter, 32, is a respected veteran who Rosen states is a “great conduit between the coaching staff and dressing room.” An experienced and productive minor league forward, Sutter is the type of dedicated player that all organizations like to have around and it seems he will be back with L.A. for at least one more year.

Offseason Keys: Tampa Bay Lightning

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With the postseason down to just two teams, many squads are now well into their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Even with the surprise resignation by Steve Yzerman as GM for Tampa Bay before training camp, things pretty much went the way of the Lightning during the regular season.  They were the class of the league and it wasn’t even close.  They were a popular pick to contend for the Stanley Cup and then within a week, it was all over as they were swept at the hands of the Blue Jackets.  Now, GM Julien BriseBois must figure out what went wrong and make some tweaks to a roster that didn’t appear to have a whole lot of holes heading into the playoffs.  Here’s what they need to accomplish this offseason.

New Deal For Point

Back in 2017-18, Brayden Point cemented himself as a key part of the team after posting 66 points.  He was a big part of their secondary scoring and it looked he’d anchor the second line.  No one’s thinking that now.  He exploded with a 92-point campaign that put him tied for 12th in scoring league-wide.  Instead of thinking he could be a secondary producer for the Lightning, he’s now a bona fide front liner.

Tampa Bay has benefited considerably from him being on his entry-level deal, one that made him arguably the best bargain in the entire league in 2018-19.  That’s about to change.  He is among the class of high-end restricted free agents this offseason and is about to get a massive raise.

Given Tampa Bay’s salary cap situation (more on that shortly), he has been a speculative offer sheet target.  While that probably won’t happen, his case will still be interesting to follow.  While most – if not all – of the other major RFAs will sign long-term deals, Point could be forced to settle for a bridge contract.  It’s not like there isn’t precedent for doing so with a top player either as Nikita Kucherov just wrapped up his three-year bridge deal this past season.  A long-term pact will be desirable for both sides but it will take some roster manoeuvering from BriseBois to give them a shot at making that happen.

Clear Cap Room

Speaking of that roster movement, that’s almost assuredly going to involve Ryan Callahan.  The veteran winger is entering the final year of his contract with a $5.8MM cap hit.  He spent time as a healthy scratch in 2018-19 and didn’t make much of an impact when he was in the lineup.  They badly need to clear out his contract and will be faced with figuring out the lesser of two evils – do they trade him with an incentive (assuming he waives his partial no-trade clause) or buy him out and carry two more years of him being on the books at a reduced cap hit ($2.567MM in 2019-20 and $1.567MM in 2020-21)?

Doing that may not even be enough.  As things stand, Tampa Bay has over $74MM tied up in 17 players for next season, per CapFriendly.  They have some work to do on their back end and Point’s new deal will be pricey, even if it’s a short-term pact.

With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them shop one of their other mid-tier veterans.  J.T. Miller ($5.25MM for four more years), Tyler Johnson ($5MM for five more seasons), and Alex Killorn ($4.45MM for four more years) all hit the 40-point mark in 2018-19 and would be good secondary scorers on a lot of teams.  They do that already in Tampa Bay.  But a younger player like Anthony Cirelli or Mathieu Joseph is ready to step into a larger role for a fraction of the price.  Moving one of those veterans out would free up a spot for one them to take on that extra responsibility and would give them a lot more wiggle room on the cap in the process.

Add Defensive Help

Tampa Bay’s back end is going to look a whole lot different next season.  Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, and Dan Girardi are all unrestricted free agents and aren’t likely to return.  That’s basically half a blueline corps that needs replacing.

Some of that will come from within.  Jan Rutta, a midseason acquisition for depth purposes, was already re-signed after he agreed to a $950K pay cut.  After being in and out of the lineup upon being recalled, he’ll likely play a regular role next season.  So too will Erik Cernak, who started out as the number seven and consistently worked his way up the lineup.

Even with those two joining incumbents Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, and Mikhail Sergachev, some additions are going to need to be made.  None of their minor leaguers are ready to make the jump on a full-time basis just yet so they’ll likely have to look to either get a cheap rearguard as part of their cap dump(s) or look for bargains on the free agent market.  On top of that, it’s likely that they’ll look to add a veteran or two on two-way deals with an eye on having some recallable injury depth, similar to what pending UFA Cameron Gaunce was brought in for last summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Jonne Tammela, Filip Pyrochta Clear Unconditional Waivers

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Saturday: Both Pyrochta and Tammela have cleared waivers, per CapFriendly (Twitter links), paving the way for them to be released.

Friday: Two players find themselves on unconditional waivers today according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports. The Nashville Predators have placed Filip Pyrochta and the Tampa Bay Lightning have placed Jonne Tammela on waivers, indicating that contract terminations are coming for both players.

Pyrochta, 22, was signed by the Predators in 2018 out of the Czech Republic but failed to even contribute much even with their AHL affiliate the Milwaukee Admirals this season. Splitting his time between Milwaukee and Atlanta Gladiators of the ECHL, Pyrochta recorded 13 points in 51 games and failed to earn a call-up to the NHL. He will likely be headed back overseas to continue what was a solid start to his professional career back home.

Tammela, 21, meanwhile was actually a fourth-round pick of the Lightning in 2015, but hasn’t played a ton even in the minor leagues. Suiting up just 51 times for the Syracuse Crunch over parts of three seasons, he found almost no offensive success and recorded just 11 points. He did however play quite well for the Orlando Solar Bears this season, but spending the year in the ECHL likely isn’t what the Finnish forward was hoping for. He too had a strong start to his career in Europe, and could return there to continue his development.

Both players had just a single year remaining on their entry-level contracts, but will sacrifice those deals in order to get some more freedom to play where they have a bigger role. The terminations will also free up a contract slot for both clubs.

Golden Knights Notes: Salary Cap, Gusev, Gambling

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Trusted salary cap database CapFriendly has rolled over their site to the 2019-20 season already and one of the most eye-grabbing results is just how much trouble the Vegas Golden Knights are already in. Using a projected salary cap ceiling of $83MM, up $3.5MM from this season, at the top of the projected salary list is Vegas, who are already $125K over the cap with more than $83MM committed to just 19 players. A further inspection reveals that the Knights have just one goaltender, Marc-Andre Fleury, and six defensemen signed as of now, with no room to make any further additions. GM Kelly McCrimmon and company will have no choice but to shed salary this summer, at the very least just to re-sign restricted free agents like William Karlsson, Nikita Gusev, Jimmy Schuldt, and Malcolm Subban. Any free agent signings beyond that will require further sacrifice. Despite being just two years into their existence, Vegas has already accumulated an incredible amount of salary, mostly due to major contracts handed out to the likes of Mark Stone, Nate Schmidt, Alex Tuch, Shea Theodore, Max Pacioretty, Paul Stastny, and Fleury, all signed since this time last year. Golden Knights fans should be prepared for some tough moves, as solving this problem won’t be as easy as simply placing David Clarkson on the injured reserve. Inaugural Knights like Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, Cody Eakin, and Colin Miller are among the most likely casualties.

  • Even in the midst of his new team’s cap crunch, Nikita Gusev is expecting and hoping to re-sign with Vegas. Gusev, whose rights were acquired from the Tampa Bay Lightning at the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, finally jumped to the NHL late this season after a decorated career in the KHL. The 26-year-old forward burned his one-year entry-level contract, despite not playing, and is now a restricted free agent. He tells Russian hockey source Sport-Express, as translated by The Sin Bin, that he likes Las Vegas and feels he owes it to the team to re-sign with them if made a reasonable offer. Gusev acknowledges that he will likely receive other offers, either from KHL clubs overseas or in the form of an NHL offer sheet, but he will wait for Vegas’ initial offer before making any decisions. What might it cost the Knights to retain their newfound weapon? The interviewer suggested to Gusev that a $4MM AAV could be the ballpark price and he did not disagree. He would only confirm that he expects a one-way deal, but did not talk specific finances. Overall, Gusev sounded very flexible about getting a deal done and even acknowledged that he would be open to playing in the AHL if that is what is asked of him. That seems like an unlikely route for Vegas to take, but Gusev’s attitude at least implies that this negotiation process and first full year in North America should go smoother than it did for Vadim Shipachyov. If (when) the Golden Knights are forced to sell off scoring this off-season, Gusev could be an ideal candidate to take on a major role next season.
  • Speaking at a conference today, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman projected the successful growth of betting on hockey by using the Golden Knights as an example, per TSN’s Rick Westhead. In Nevada, where sports gambling is legalized, hockey bets grew by 60% in Vegas’ inaugural season and again by 40% this season. While Nevada, and Las Vegas in particular, is the unofficial gambling capital of the United States, the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Murphy v. NCAA last summer allows all states to decide for themselves whether or not to allow for legalized gambling. Many states already have sports books up and running and many more will soon follow. If the growth exhibited in Nevada in regards to betting on hockey is replicated by other states, it will be a key growth factor for the game and the NHL and one that Bettman will surely try to take advantage of as best he can.

Ryan Callahan “On The Outside Looking In”

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Even with all the relative bargains they’ve signed over the last few seasons, the Tampa Bay Lightning will be facing a cap crunch again this summer. The team already has more than $74MM committed in 2019-20 contracts according to CapFriendly, and has a huge negotiation coming up with restricted free agent Brayden Point. Knowing that, GM Julien BriseBois will likely have to make some room by trading away at least one of their highly paid forwards, and Ryan Callahan is the obvious choice given his declining production. That’s no secret to the veteran forward, who told Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription required) as much:

Obviously there’s a salary cap crunch, and it doesn’t take a scientist to figure out right now I’m on the outside looking in. Whatever happens, happens. But I was really happy with how I finished the year.

Callahan, 34, has been limited by injuries over the last three seasons and recorded just 17 points in 52 games this year. The former New York Rangers forward is still an effective defensive player and brings a ton of leadership, but his $5.8MM price tag is just too expensive for the kind of production he brings. Smith and his colleagues from The Athletic examine five teams that could be potential destinations for Callahan this summer, though it is not yet clear who will be on his 15-team trade list of places the team could send him without his consent.

A trade is not the only way the Lightning could get out from under Callahan’s deal, as a buyout would save them more than $3.1MM this season. The downside to a buyout would be the $1.57MM cap hit incurred for the 2020-21 season, but it would also mean the team doesn’t have to give up an asset to ship him somewhere. Theoretically the team could actually pull off a similar transaction as the one that Brooks Orpik went through last summer, when the Washington Capitals sent him to the Colorado Avalanche for a buyout before re-signing him at a lower price.

If it is the end for Callahan in Tampa Bay, his time there will likely still be seen positively despite the lack of production over the last few seasons. He was a big part of the team when they went to the Stanley Cup Final in 2015, and has never been accused of giving anything but his full effort when on the ice.

Western Notes: Dunn, Kampf, Stralman, Brown

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The St. Louis Blues will be without defenseman Vince Dunn on Sunday for the ever-important Game 5 as Blues head coach Craig Berube said the 22-year-old won’t travel with the team to San Jose after taking a puck to the face during Game 3 on Wednesday, according to St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Tom Timmermann.

Berube added that Dunn will be day-to-day with an upper-body injury and he is believed to be dealing with concussion issues. He was well enough to attend Friday’s Game 4’s 2-1 victory, however.

“It’s great,” Berube said after the game. “Dunner’s back here and he’s around his teammates. … It’s awesome to see him. It’s a day-to-day thing right now. I’m not sure exactly when he’s gonna be available to play. So we’ll have to see how that goes, but it’s good to see him around for sure.”

The team did have some good news as winger Sammy Blais is expected to play in Game 5 despite having to leave Game 4 Friday after taking a Brent Burns’ shot off his foot.

  • The Athletic’s Scott Powers (subscription required) writes that the Chicago Blackhawks have begun negotiating with restricted free agent center David Kampf. The 24-year-old was signed to a two-year entry-level contract out of the Czech Republic League and has been a success in Chicago, but after making $925K the past two years, he’s in line for a slight raise. While Kampf’s eight goals and 30 points in 109 NHL games isn’t impressive, the forward has been one of Chicago’s best defensive forwards and is expected to be the team’s third or fourth-line center next season. He is eligible for arbitration if the two sides can’t agree to terms.
  • The Province’s Patrick Johnson writes that although Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Anton Stralman will be one of the more interesting defensemen on the free agency market this summer, he doubts that the 33-year-old defenseman would be a good fit for the Vancouver Canucks. Even with a full season of star prospect Quinn Hughes, the team desperately needs to upgrade its defense. However, Johnson writes with the team trying to re-sign Alexander Edler and trying to get one more year out of veteran Chris Tanev, the team likely won’t want to add another veteran defenseman to their lineup.
  • The Athletic’s Allan Mitchell (subscription required) writes that the Edmonton Oilers should consider helping the Toronto Maple Leafs with their salary cap issues by taking forward Connor Brown off their hands. The scribe believes that the 25-year-old Brown, who has seen his offensive numbers drop in each of the last years, might be the perfect addition for a team that is loaded at the center position, but could use plenty of talent at the wing position. Brown was a former junior teammate of Connor McDavid, suggesting he might make the perfect winger for the star center. Brown scored 20 goals in his first full season with the Maple Leafs back in the 2016-17 season, with many believing he could be a consistent 20-goal scorer. However, that number dropped by six in each of the next two years, to 14 in 2017-18 and then to just eight goals this season. Brown will make $2.1MM next season before becoming a restricted free agent, but the scribe believes that if teamed with McDavid, Brown could easily go back to his 20-goal scoring ways and give the Oilers another offensive weapon that they desperately need. Of course, everything depends on what Toronto would be asking for Brown.

2019 Memorial Cup Preview

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The biggest event in junior hockey begins tonight, as the year-end Memorial Cup Tournament opens in Halifax, Nova Scotia. For a refresher, the champions of the three Canadian Hockey League member leagues – the Ontario Hockey League, Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, and Western Hockey League – and a rotating host team square off in a round-robin tournament each year to determine Canadian junior hockey’s premier team. Each of the four contenders play one another once, after which the standings allow for a semi-final and final round. The action begins tonight and continues through the week, with the playoff rounds scheduled for May 24th and 26th. As for the competitors, the Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL) play host to the Guelph Storm (OHL), Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (QMJHL), and Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Below is a summary of each team’s season and top players for those interested in following the action over the next ten days:

Halifax Mooseheads (49-15-4)

This year’s host team was nearly a league champion themselves. The Moosheads fell to the Huskies in six games in the QMJHL Final, but will have a second chance against the team at least once in the Memorial tournament. Halifax is led by 20-year-old undrafted center Samuel Asselin, whose 86 points led the team and were a top-ten finish in the league, but all eyes will instead be on his young, draft-eligible line mate. Raphael Lavoie, who has had an up-and-down season, picked a good time to be on the up. With the NHL Draft a month away, Lavoie caught fire in the QMJHL playoffs. The 6’4″ right wing recorded 32 points in 23 postseason games, almost half of his 73 regular season points, which was far-and-away the most on the Mooseheads and second-best in the league. Most draft rankings and mock drafts have Lavoie falling somewhere in the middle ten picks of the upcoming first round and the Memorial Cup is his final chance to prove he should go earlier instead of later. The big winger plays a physically dominant game that often looks effortless, but he can also flip a switch and show off stellar skill. Also up front for Halifax are are a pair of recent Anaheim Ducks second-round selections, Benoit-Olivier Groulx and Antoine Morand, and New York Islanders’ sixth-round sleeper pick Arnaud Durandeau. Leading the defense is the daunting pair of top Detroit Red Wings blue line prospect Jared McIsaac and promising 2020-eligible rearguard Justin Barron, a likely first-round pick next year. The Mooseheads are as strong in the top-six and on the top pair as any team in this tournament, but it is in their depth that they could fall short. However, there is always the chance that goaltender Alexis Gravel, the Chicago Blackhawks’ 2018 sixth-rounder, could steal a game if the skaters fall short. Gravel finished in the top five in both save percentage and goals against average among QMJHL starters this season.

Guelph Storm (40-18-10)

No one expected Guelph to be here. The Storm, who entered the playoffs with the eighth-best record in the OHL, were down 3-0 in their second-round series against the division rival London Knights and managed to mount a four-win comeback to advance. They then fell behind by two games against both the Saginaw Spirit in the third round and Ottawa 67’s in the OHL Final to win it all. This team is nothing if not resilient and will be a tough out in this tournament. While Arizona Coyotes’ forward prospect Nate Schnarr enjoyed an excellent season, leading Guelph with 102 points and finishing in the OHL’s top-ten in points and assists, there is little argument that he is still the best forward for the Storm. Acquired in January, Montreal Canadiens top prospect Nick Suzuki has been superhuman since arriving in Guelph. The talented forward recorded 49 points in 29 games to close out the regular season and then another 42 points in 24 playoff games en route to a championship. Suzuki might be the most dangerous player in the Memorial Cup tournament, which is a major boost for the Storm. He’s not alone though; Suzuki and Schnarr lead a forward corps that includes NHL-bound power forwards Isaac Ratcliffe of the Philadelphia Flyers, MacKenzie Entwistle of the Chicago Blackhawks, and Liam Hawel of the Dallas Stars. The defense is also stout behind mainstays Dmitri Samorukov of the Edmonton Oilers and draft-eligible Owen Lalonde and trade additions Markus Phillips and Sean Durzi the Los Angeles Kings. Guelph would be the favorites to win the Memorial Cup if it wasn’t for their goaltending issues. If Anthony Popovich can find his game and that weakness goes away, the Storm are in good shape. The OHL is traditionally the strongest of the three CHL leagues, which is evidenced by the depth of talent that Guelph, the eighth-best OHL squad in the regular season, has versus the best teams of the QMJHL and WHL.

Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (59-8-1)

Rouyn-Noranda’s regular season mirrored that of the Tampa Bay Lightning. The team was dominant from beginning to end and won the QMJHL regular season title by a whopping 12 points and finished with a goal differential of +182. Fortunately for them, the similarities ended in the postseason. The Huskies continued to roll all the way to the league championship. Leading the way, regular season and postseason, has been league scoring title-winner Peter Abbandonato. Abbandonato, 21, recorded 111 points this season and tacked on another 27 in the postseason. An undrafted prospect, Abbandonato has not let the lack of NHL commitment slow him down as he has been near-impossible to stop all season. He also has a deep supporting cast, including talented first-time draft-eligible prospect Alex Beaucage, and over-agers Raphael Harvey-Pinard and Felix Bibeau, as well as Boston Bruins draft pick Jakub Lauko and Montreal Canadiens signee Joel Teasdale. Trade acquisition Noah Dobson, the twelfth overall pick last year by the New York Islanders, has also had a massive impact for the team both defensively and offensively. Dobson is arguably the best player in the tournament and could be the x-factor for the Huskies. The story of Rouyn-Noranda’s season to this point though has been the stellar goalie tandem of Samuel Harvey and San Jose Sharks pick Zachary Emond, both of whom posted a save percentage of better than .925 and a goals against average below 2.10 in the regular season. Harvey, who started 20 of 21 playoff games, put up even better numbers when it mattered most. If the 21-year-old net minder keeps up that level of play, the Huskies will be hard to beat.

Prince Albert Raiders (54-10-4)

The Raiders were just as, if not more dominant in the WHL as the Huskies were in the QMJHL, winning the regular season title by 11 points and recording a goal differential of +151, more than 50% better than the next-best team. Yet, Prince Albert accomplished such a campaign without much game-breaking talent, perhaps why they came within an overtime goal away from losing in the WHL Final to the Vancouver Giants. The Raiders have good players, but on paper they pale in comparison to the other three competing teams. That doesn’t erase what they have already accomplished this season, but it could put them at a disadvantage in inter-league play. Leading the Raiders is a player whose name hockey fans will know before the NHL Draft, if they don’t already. 20-year-old forward Brett Leason is a once-in-a-generation late bloomer who was passed over in two drafts already before breaking out this season. His play has caught seemingly everyone’s eye, as he earned a spot on Team Canada’s World Junior team earlier this year and is considered by some to be a first-round pick possibility in June. Leason’s numbers back up the hype; not only is he 6’4″ and over 200 lbs., but the power forward scored 36 goals and totaled 89 points in just 55 games this year. He then added 25 more points in 22 postseason games. Leason is a force in the offensive end – shooting, passing, possessing, and forechecking – and will be one of the tougher players to match up with in the tournament. Right beside Leason all season long has been San Jose Sharks selection Noah Gregor, who finished just one point behind Leason but still within the WHL’s top ten scorers. Cole Fonstad, property of the Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators free agent addition Parker Kelly, and another intriguing draft prospect, Alexei Protas, also play key roles up front for Prince Albert. Outside of WHL plus/minus leader Brayden Pachal, the Raiders are pretty thin on the blue line, but star goalie Ian Scott hasn’t let it affect him. The Toronto Maple Leafs’ keeper of the future has been phenomenal this season, posting a sub-2.00 goals against average and .932 save percentage in the regular season and replicating those numbers in the postseason. Gravel and Harvey may be able to steal a game in the Memorial Cup, but a hot Scott could steal the whole tournament.

Goalie Notes: Binnington, Carolina, Edmonton

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Jordan Binnington has been a revelation for the St. Louis Blues this season. A 25-year-old rookie who didn’t make his first NHL start until January, Binnington somehow managed to record 24 wins, a .927 save percentage, and a league-leading 1.89 GAA this season and has led the Blues to the Western Conference Final thus far in these playoffs. Binnington will be 26 before next season and has just 33 career appearances, yet he is a Calder Trophy candidate and undeniably St. Louis’ MVP in this amazing turnaround season. So how do you compensate a season like this? The Hockey News’ Matt Larkin wondered the same thing and explored three comparable contracts that the Blues may explore this off-season. The first belongs to a player with many similarities to Binnington, NHL journeyman Andrew Hammond. Hammond’s breakout season with the Ottawa Senators in 2015 was even more impressive than Binnington’s, that is until he lost his job to a healthy Craig Anderson in the postseason. A 26-year-old “prospect” with only 24 NHL appearances to his name, Hammond received just $1.35MM per year over three years from the Senators following his big season. However, Larkin points out that Hammond was not expected to be the starter in Ottawa, whereas Binnington is undoubtedly going to begin next season ahead of Jake Allen on the Blues’ depth chart. He also notes that Binnington has arbitration rights this season and no reasonable arbitrator would be convinced that Binnington is worth an equivalent contract to Hammond’s, which would only be about a $1.5MM AAV. On the other end of the spectrum, Larkin uses Winnipeg Jets’ starter Connor Hellebuyck as an example. Hellebuyck, another older prospect out of UMass – Lowell, Hellebuyck joined the Jets in 2015-16 at age 22 as the backup, struggled the next year as the part-time starter, and then had a breakout campaign last year in the final season of his entry-level contract. Winnipeg responded with a six-year deal worth more than $6MM annually for Hellebuyck. However, by the time he signed his extension, Hellebuyck had played in 149 games over three seasons, a much larger sample size than Binnington’s. He was also younger and entered the NHL with far great expectations compared to Binnington’s relative obscurity through a long AHL career. Thus, Hellebuyck also fails to be a convincing comparison for Binnington. Larkin finally settles on the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Matt Murray. Murray also came out of nowhere as a rookie, albeit a 21-year-old rookie, to start 13 games down the stretch and then lead the Penguins to a Stanley Cup behind a stellar postseason. Despite Murray’s lack of NHL experience, the Penguins had seen enough to reward their young keeper with a three-year extension worth $3.75MM per year. While Binnington is significantly older and a less heralded prospect, he has a larger sample size and slightly better regular season numbers than Murray, making the deal a fair comparison. Under the current salary cap, which is likely to increase this summer, Murray’s deal would equate to about a $4.25MM AAV for Binnington. So what should Blues fans expect in a Binnington extension? The safe bet is somewhere between three and four years at $4-4.5MM per year, but a Stanley Cup title could still push that value even higher for the breakout keeper.

  • According to Shawn P. Roarke of NHL.com, Carolina Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour says there is a “pretty good chance” he goes back to Curtis McElhinney in net for an elimination Game Four against the Boston Bruins on Thursday. McElhinney has played well this postseason in relief of Petr Mrazek, including in Game Three. McElhinney made 29 saves and allowed just two goals on Tuesday night after Mrazek surrendered ten goals combined in Games One and Two. At this point, McElhinney does seem to give the Hurricanes the best chance to win against Boston, but is there more at stake here? Whether McElhinney or Mrazek are in net, the odds of Carolina winning Game Four are slim and the chances they win four in a row to advance are much, much worse. When the ’Canes are inevitably eliminated, they face a reality of both Mrazek and McElhinney being unrestricted free agents. If forced to choose between the two, one would certainly think that the team would prefer to bring back Mrazek, who outplayed McElhinney this season – and is nine years younger. However, they take the risk in going back to McElhinney, who lost nevertheless in Game Three, that Mrazek no longer feels like the top option in Carolina and looks for other opportunities on the open market. After a strong season, the Hurricanes can’t afford a downgrade in net, so unless they are open to spending more on a free agent upgrade to Mrazek – a Robin Lehner or Semyon Varlamov for example – they’ll need to be careful with how the approach his confidence as this playoff run winds down.
  • Is new Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland happy to enter next season with Mikko Koskinen and (Group 6 free agent) Anthony Stolarz in net? If not, he could have a hard time attracting free agents and might instead look to his old team for help. Steve Yzerman may also want to bring in fresh blood in Detroit, but the Red Wings are locked in to Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Bernier next season to the tune of $7MM. The ink is still drying on Howard’s extension with the team and his loyalty likely lies more with the city of Detroit than with Holland. After a nice season, it would be a surprise for Howard to be dealt away. However, Yzerman will likely be willing to move the disappointing Bernier and Holland would seemingly be interested. After all, it was Holland who signed the journeyman to a three-year, $9MM contract just last summer. He very well may feel that Bernier can still live up to that contract, even after a poor first season with the Red Wings. It would not come as much of a surprise if Bernier outperforms Koskinen next season, so if Holland can re-acquire the veteran net minder on the cheap, it could make sense for the Oilers.

Poll: How Many Top Free Agents Will Re-Sign Before July 1st?

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The season is over for all but four NHL teams, meaning free agents from the other 27 clubs are already focused on July 1st and the start of free agency. How many of those top free agents are still considering staying where they are versus testing the market? How many teams have the means and interest to re-sign them?

In January, PHR published our Mid-Season UFA Power Rankings: 1-10, 11-20, and honorable mentions. Mark Stone, Eric Staal, Jakob Silfverberg and Jimmy Howard – four of our top 25 –  have already signed extensions. However, the other top names and their current squads have exactly seven weeks to decide whether or not they will follow suit.

The Columbus Blue Jackets went all in at the trade deadline and it paid off with the franchise’s first ever playoff series win, a shocking sweep of the President’s Trophy-winning Tampa Bay Lightning. Yet, the acquisitions of Ottawa Senators standouts Matt Duchene (No. 5) and Ryan Dzingel (No. 16) was not enough to get the team through round two, nevertheless to a Stanley Cup title. Now, the team faces the possibility that their new additions could walk in free agency alongside stars Artemi Panarin (No. 2) and Sergei Bobrovsky (No. 6), leaving them with major holes to fill. The latter duo have long been expected to test the market, perhaps even as a package deal. Additionally, the conditional 2020 first-round pick tied to re-signing Duchene would seemingly make it less likely that Columbus opts to extend him, especially given their lack of picks in the upcoming draft. None of those three have officially ruled out a return to the Blue Jackets, but it doesn’t look good. On the other hand, Dzingel, an Ohio State University alum, looks like he could be a more natural long-term fit, but it hasn’t prevented rumors that other teams are very interested in signing him.

Another free agent-heavy team that blew through round one of the playoffs only to be knocked off in round two are the New York Islanders. After losing John Tavares last summer, going through the same with top forward Anders Lee (No. 9) would be devastating for the Islanders franchise. Yet, the captain still remains unsigned. It’s fair to assume they will eventually figure it out, but that line of thinking if awfully reminiscent of last year. New York is reportedly pushing hard to retain enter Brock Nelson (No. 11) and winger Jordan Eberle (No. 15) as well, but they could be more inclined to test the market. There’s also the question of resurgent goalie Robin Lehner (No. 23). Will the Islanders lock up the young keeper who was so solid this season? Or will they refuse to pay market value for a player that has benefited from their system while splitting time with Thomas Greiss?

Another team of interest are the San Jose Sharks, who remain alive in the Western Conference Final. Superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson (No. 1) and respected veteran forward Joe Pavelski (No. 7) are both heading for free agency and the Sharks may be hard-pressed to sign both. There’s also deadline addition Gustav Nyquist (No. 14) to consider re-signing, as he has had a strong postseason with the Sharks. The Carolina Hurricanes are also one of four teams still playing and are definitely happy they held on to forward Micheal Ferland (No. 18). Ferland is reportedly expected to test the market, but after a deep postseason run he may be more open to extending his stay with the Hurricanes.

It was a difficult end to the year for the Winnipeg Jets, who were one-and-done this year, falling to the St. Louis Blues in the first round. Between rental center Kevin Hayes (No. 8) and big defenseman Tyler Myers (No. 10), the Jets have a pair of coveted free agents on the roster who they would surely like to keep, but that is the least of their worries as they face a daunting impending cap crunch. It could make bringing back even one of the two nearly impossible. The same goes for defenseman Jake Gardiner (No. 12) and the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs will have a hard enough time keeping their roster together and re-signing their current restricted free agent, nevertheless managing to re-sign Gardiner.

Generally, playoff rentals proceed to hit the free agent market rather than re-up with their new teams. In addition to Duchene, Dzingel, Hayes, and Nyquist, Nashville’s Wayne Simmonds (No. 13), Dallas’ Mats Zuccarello (No. 21), and Colorado’s Derick Brassard (No. 24) could very well be headed to yet another destination. Simmonds and Brassard were disappointments in their short stays, but Zuccarello proved to be a nice fit with the Stars. However, the team would lose a first-round pick rather than a second-round pick to the New York Rangers if they were to re-sign the veteran forward. That may not be enough to stop them from extending him, though.

If there was any doubt that the Buffalo Sabres couldn’t re-sign Jeff Skinner (No. 4), one would think he would have been dealt at the trade deadline. However, he remains suspiciously unsigned and would be a massive addition to the free agent market if he does make it to July. Skinner has been a great match with Jack Eichel and certainly looks like a long-term fit in Buffalo, but the team’s second-half struggles could have Skinner re-thinking a long-term stay.

Vancouver’s Alexander Edler (No. 22) stated that his preference was not to be dealt at this year’s trade deadline and to instead re-sign with the Canucks. The two sides have been working toward an extension, but until pen meets paper he is still an impending free agent that will attract considerable attention. Similarly, Semyon Varlamov (No. 17) has expressed an interest in remaining with the Colorado Avalanche, but it’s unclear if the feeling is mutual. Varlamov would have to take a major pay cut to stay on as backup and may rather test a goalie market that has already lost Howard and could lose Lehner before free agency opens.

Compared to recent years, this impending free agent class does look to have fewer locks for extensions among top players. Any of these names could hit the market, although odds are they won’t all choose to do so. Regardless, this could be a healthy market come July 1st. Just how deep could it be? That’s for you to guess. How many of these top free agents will sign extensions?

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Coaching Updates: Buffalo, Edmonton, Toronto

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As usual, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet has produced another edition of “31 Thoughts” that is chock full of insider information. With the postseason ongoing and free agency yet to begin (officially anyway), a considerable focus this week is on head coaching vacancies. And the coaching news is coming in fast. Less than 24 hours after initially naming Ralph Krueger as a candidate for the vacancy with the Buffalo Sabres, Friedman writes that he is now considered the favorite. The former Edmonton Oilers head coach, and most recently soccer executive, has ties to GM Jason Botterill and has the experience that the Sabres reportedly seek. Friedman also believes that Pittsburgh Penguins assistant Jacques Martin is out of the running for the Buffalo job, which may have moved Krueger up the board. He also adds that Tampa Bay Lightning assistant Todd Richards is no longer being considered.

  • Long-time NHL head coach Dave Tippett is still a candidate in Buffalo, but Friedman believes that he has become the favorite in Edmonton and is more likely to take over as the Oilers’ head coach. Tippett has been working with the Seattle expansion team ownership group of late, but has been itching to get back to coaching. In 14 years of coaching, Tippett finished above .500 11 times and made the playoffs eight times. That alone is a major step up for Edmonton, who have done neither of those things in nine of the past ten years. Joining Tippett in Edmonton as an assistant could be recent Florida Panthers head coach Bob Boughner, Friedman adds. By many accounts Boughner was fired not due to his own performance, but due to Joel Quenneville’s availability, so he would be a major addition as well.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs may not need to worry about losing highly-touted AHL head coach Sheldon Keefe. Keefe’s name has been relatively quiet on the coaching market thus far, but that could be due to the fact that Friedman believes he is unwilling to leave Toronto unless there is a better chance for him to succeed. Keefe could be in line to replace Mike Babcock as Leafs head coach when his contract ends (or sooner) and step into a talented Toronto lineup. However, assistant D.J. Smith remains a candidate in Ottawa and fellow assistant Jim Hiller has been granted permission to interview elsewhere, Friedman reports. Friedman does not expect Hiller to be back in Toronto next season and mentions the Nashville Predators as a potential landing spot. Hiller’s power play expertise could certainly help a Predator’s man advantage that was the worst in the NHL this season. The potential loss of both Smith and Hiller would hurt for the Maple Leafs and could force them to move Keefe to the NHL as an assistant.
  • Friedman has no news about the vacancies in Ottawa and Anaheim. As it stands now, the Senators are considering Smith, Martin, Dallas Stars assistant Rick Bowness, Providence College’s Nate Leaman, and internal candidates Troy Mann and Marc Crawford. As for the Ducks, it appears to be Dallas Eakins, whose AHL San Diego Gulls are still alive in the Calder Cup playoffs, or bust.

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