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Trade Deadline Primer: New York Islanders

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We are now just two weeks away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the New York Islanders.

The New York Islanders, perpetual underdogs, are again delivering an excellent season. Picked by many before the season to miss the playoffs in a loaded East Division, the Islanders have outplayed their competitors for much of the season. A top-five team in goals against average and shots against per game, the Isles have again bought in to head coach Barry Trotz’ conservative, smothering style and are frustrating opponents left and right.

With that said, New York does not have a top-class offense, and that was even before the season-ending injury to captain Anders Lee. The Islanders are just a middle-of-the pack team in terms of scoring and are below average on the power play. As a side effect of the system, they do not put a lot of shots on net and have few odd-man rushes. Simply, they need to make their scoring chances count and without Lee that becomes more difficult. The Islanders have won just five of their past nine games since their leading goal-scorer went down and have slipped into a tie with the Pittsburgh Penguins in second in the division. In terms of points percentage, New York is closer to the Boston Bruins in fourth (who have many more game in hand) than they are to the Washington Capitals in first. The Islanders are unlikely to fall out of the playoff picture completely, but to stay near the top they desperately need to add offense.

Record

22-10-4, .667, T-2nd in East Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$0MM in full-season space (LTIR, $6.53MM unused), 0/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NYI 1st, COL 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th
2022: NYI 1st, NYI 2nd, COL 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th

Trade Chips

Like many contenders, the Islanders don’t have the strongest pipeline to lean on. However, likely looking to add just one rental forward in a buyer’s market, they shouldn’t have to offer up any of their few elite prospects to get the job done. So fear not Isles fans, Oliver Wahlstrom and Noah Dobson aren’t going anywhere.

Kieffer Bellows is likely the name that will be heard most often as being linked to outgoing Islanders’ packages. A polarizing, but promising prospect, Bellows hasn’t found the success in the NHL that was expected of a first-round pick and World Juniors standout, but he could benefit from playing in a different system. The 22-year-old may very well be selected by the Seattle Kraken in this summer’s Expansion Draft if he is still on the roster and not protected, so the Islanders might be looking to deal him rather than risk losing him for nothing.

The Islanders also have an organization depth chart chock full of young defenseman that they could offer up in a deadline deal. Bode Wilde will be the player most suitors ask about, but the team will try to steer them away from the talented righty. Sebastian Aho and Grant Hutton are NHL-ready assets who don’t necessarily have a full-time spot waiting for them in New York next season, making them expendable, while Robin Salo and Samuel Bolduc are younger options with intriguing upside.

Others to Watch For: F Ross Johnston ($1MM, 2022 UFA), F Michael Dal Colle ($700K, RFA), F Otto Koivula ($787K, RFA), D Parker Wotherspoon ($725K, 2022 RFA), G Jakub Skarek ($764K, 2023 RFA)

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Winger – GM Lou Lamoriello will have his sights set on one thing and one thing only at the deadline: a Lee replacement. While the captain’s locker room leadership and even his two-way effort and IQ likely cannot be found on the market, the Islanders need to find someone who can take up his knack for scoring goals. The team relies on efficiency on offense and are now missing their most reliable scorer. They are solid down the middle and have plenty of other talented wingers, but no one who isn’t already playing in the top-six can reliably fill Lee’s shoes. With up to $7MM in cap space to use with Lee on Long-Term Injured Reserve, nearly any rental winger can fit under the cap. Buffalo’s Taylor Hall, the lone exception, could be had with some retention involved, but New Jersey’s Kyle Palmieri or Nashville’s Mikael Granlund would fit nicely under the cap. If the Islanders can’t manage to land one of those top options, dark horse candidates could include Chicago’s Mattias Janmark, who is scoring goals at a torrid clip this year, Vancouver’s Tanner Pearson, if healthy, or another New Jersey option, Nikita Gusev. 

2) Goaltender – Being the shrewd veteran executive that he is, don’t be surprised to see Lamoriello look at solving an Expansion crisis ahead of the deadline as well. With young Ilya Sorokin exempt from the draft and Cory Schneider headed for free agency, the Islanders do not currently have the necessary goalie to expose to Seattle assuming they protect starter Semyon Varlamov, unless they  extend the 35-year-old Schneider that is. Instead, look for the team to add a keeper with term on his contract or heading for restricted free agency. The team could kill two birds with one stone if they make can find a dependable addition; having a fourth-string for the playoffs and a third-string to replace Schneider next year would be a wise move.

New York Islanders Sign Ilya Sorokin

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Tuesday: The Islanders and Sorokin have already agreed to terms on his next contract, less than 24 hours after he signed his first one. The Russian netminder will sign a one-year deal for the 2020-21 season worth $2MM according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.  This deal will still leave Sorokin as a restricted free agent in 2021 but gives the two sides a lot more time to work out a long-term deal.

The contract will carry a $1MM signing bonus and $1MM salary.

Monday: KHL star netminder Ilya Sorokin has made his much-anticipated leap to the NHL, albeit with a twist. Per agent Dan Milstein, Sorokin has signed a one-year entry-level contract with the New York Islanders, effective for the 2019-20 season. However, Sorokin is only eligible to join the team for training camp and cannot play in the upcoming postseason; yet, his contract will still be burned. This means that while the Islanders have finally signed Sorokin, he will need another contract this fall as a restricted free agent before he can ever suit up for the team.

Sorokin, 24, should be able to negotiate a pretty considerable deal for himself without any NHL experience, too. Like Igor Shesterkin of the rival New York Rangers, Sorokin has established himself as one the very best goalies outside of the NHL at a very young age. Stunningly, Sorokin made his KHL debut at just 17 years old, an unheard-of accomplishment for a goalie that young in any major pro league. His five games in 2012-13 jumpstarted his success in Russia, where he has a career .930 save percentage and 1.70 GAA in nearly 250 games. This included an unthinkable .953 save percentage and 1.06 GAA in 28 games in 2015-16 and a current streak of three straight seasons with a .930+ save percentage.

Sorokin will undoubtedly draw comparisons to Shesterkin in his rookie season in 2020-21, as the two bring their KHL duel to the Big Apple. While Shersterkin’s career KHL numbers are a tad better than Sorokin’s, they came in less than half as many games despite the two being the same age. Sorokin has a major experience advantage, so he should fair even better than Shesterkin with adjusting to the NHL. His Rangers counterpart recorded a .932 save percentage and 2.52 GAA in 12 games this season and seems to have won the starting role for his team. Expect Sorokin to aim for the same result and likely with more starts and better stats. Especially in an Islanders system that has elevated the play of keepers like Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss – who is now also likely to depart as a UFA – in recent years, it would not be shocking to see Sorokin with numbers among the league’s best next season as he splits time with Semyon Varlamov. In fact, Sorokin could have a strong case for the Calder Trophy in 2020-21.

So, while Islanders fans may be disappointed that they cannot see Sorokin sooner and that he cannot help out with a hopeful playoff run, they should still be excited for what is to come from the young Russian goaltender. With a deep, defensive-minded roster in front of him, Sorokin has the makings of a long-term, cornerstone keeper.

Snapshots: Kovalchuk, Sorokin, Backes

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How the tables have turned already for Ilya Kovalchuk. The veteran forward was unemployed entering the new year after having his contract terminated by the Los Angeles Kings. Despite his decorated history in pro hockey, he was left scouting the market for a minimum contract with a team that maybe had a chance at the postseason in 2019-20. He landed in Montreal, signing a one-year, pro-rated $700K contract with a team heading in the wrong direction for playoff contention because that was his best option at the time. Just two weeks later, Kovalchuk’s stock has skyrocketed. The 36-year-old has eight points in eight games with the Canadiens and has looked phenomenal, especially compared to his play in L.A. When he first started scoring, many Habs fans were excited at the prospect of the team flipping him for assets at the trade deadline.

While this remains a distinct possibility, as Kovalchuk continues to produce many other are asking whether Montreal should instead look to re-sign the winger. Not only has Kovalchuk been an impressive offensive contributor, but he provides the veteran presence and star power that the team is lacking in its forward corps, which plays a part in why Kovalchuk has been such a hit with fans so early in his tenure. Yet, Kovalchuk has been so successful in such a short time with the Canadiens, that his camp is already thinking about cashing in, mere weeks after settling for the smallest NHL contract possible. When asked about the prospect of Kovalchuk re-signing in Montreal, agent Pat Brisson told TVA Sports that it is too early to talk extension. While he admits that Kovalchuk is enjoying his time with the team, Brisson states that the focus is only on making the playoffs, which – when spoken by an agent – is a strong indication that Kovlachuk will be looking to test the market or at least continue to drive up his price before talking contract with Montreal.  A trade would also change the status quo and could afford Kovalchuk the opportunity to improve his stock even more with a postseason appearance, which seems unlikely in Montreal this season. While the veteran star is not going to land a long-term contract this season, his sudden resurgence all but guarantees that he will be back in the NHL next season and making significantly more than his current $700K cap hit.

  • Ilya Sorokin is a name that has long been tied to the NHL, despite the player never having set foot on pro ice in North America. The New York Islanders prospect has long been one of the best goalies in the KHL, even at just 24 years old, yet he has been reluctant to sign with the team and commit to coming overseas. Reports earlier this season were that Sorokin wanted a clear shot to a guaranteed NHL job and has not been happy with the situation in New York, first with Thomas Greiss and Robin Lehner last year, now Greiss and Semyon Varlamov this year, and at least Varlamov signed for several more years. Those reports indicated that Sorokin intended to stay in Russia unless traded by the Islanders. Some subsequent rumors believed that the team was considering moving Sorokin’s rights as a result. However, when KHL insider Igor Eronko approached Sorokin about the topic, a different sentiment came from the horse’s mouth. Sorokin expressed that he was surprised to read the stories about his trade demands and that the team was looking into moving him. He stated that he and the Islanders have a different understanding and he has not been told that the status quo has changed. Don’t be surprised if the Russian star remains Islanders’ property through the trade deadline after all.
  • The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa writes that David Backes has five choices after being waived and demoted by the Boston Bruins. One option that might come as a surprise, not as a suggestion but as a concrete theory, is that Backes could retire rather than accept his assignment. Shinzawa reports that Backes seriously considered retirement after his concussion earlier this season, but was assured by a concussion expert that it was safe for him to return to action. Yet, after Backes failed to return to an NHL-caliber level of play, could he decide to play it safe and call it quits? He would forego the remaining salary on his contract, but would protect himself from the risk of long-term harm with another injury, one that would especially be a shame while merely competing at the AHL level. Shinzawa suggests that Backes could instead decline his assignment and see his contract terminated, which would make him a free agent where he could at least try to find a worthwhile job elsewhere in the NHL. The other option is that he simply accepts his assignment to AHL Providence, which could also lead to a trade request down the road or further consideration of retirement or contract termination before the end of next season.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: New York Islanders

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As the holiday season is upon us, PHR will continue its look at what teams are thankful for as we get closer to the halfway point. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the New York Islanders.

What are the Islanders most thankful for?

Head coach Barry Trotz’ system has held up, even after the departure of Robin Lehner.

Many experts and fans alike were skeptical when the Islanders allowed Lehner to walk this summer, splitting up the Jennings Trophy-winning duo of he and Thomas Greiss that allowed just 2.19 goals against last season. Even more perplexing was handing Semyon Varlamov a long-term contract with an AAV equal to that of the one-year deal signed by Lehner in Chicago. The crucial question for the Isles’ 2019-20 season was whether or not Lehner’s .930 save percentage and 2.13 GAA – both top three among NHL starters last year – were the key to the team’s success or rather a product of Trotz’ system that could be continued by Greiss and replicated by Varlamov.

Midway through this campaign, the front office’s decisions have not backfired. Instead, the Islanders are again one of the stingiest teams in the NHL. Their current 2.57 GAA ranks fifth in the league, helping New York to a .700 points percentage that ranks third in the league. Greiss has continued his roll from last year and Varlamov has fit in seamlessly. The team continues to play an effective shutdown style, protecting their goalies and not allowing the opposition many opportunities to control the pace of the game. So long as the club continues to buy in to this conservative system, the Islanders will continue to win by suffocating their opponent.

Who are the Islanders most thankful for?

Trotz is the answer again. The Islanders made a brilliant move by wooing the veteran head coach away from the 2018 Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals right after they won their title, both strengthening their own team while weakening a top rival (although the Capitals remain the Isles’ biggest roadblock to winning the Metropolitan Division). Trotz’ system has worked perfectly for the personnel in New York and has them again in position to be a Cup contender.

However, for the player on the ice that the team is most thankful for, it would have to be Mathew Barzal, even if only by a slim margin. The Islanders are one of the more balanced teams in the league in terms of offensive distribution, but Barzal still narrowly remains the team’s leader in goals, assists, points, plus/minus, and more. The 22-year-old center has 32 points in 35 games, including six points on the team’s tenth-ranked power play. While Barzal’s two-way game is still a work in progress and his shooting percentage suggests that there could be some goal-scoring regression on the way, most night’s he is the most valuable skater on the ice for the Islanders.

What would the Islanders be even more thankful for?

Faster starts. For a team in third-place in the NHL, the Islanders somehow hold a negative goal differential in the first period. The team is tied for fifth-worst in the league in goals for in the first frame, which often puts them at a disadvantage early on. The team can sit back and shut down an opponent when they have the lead, but are not well-equipped to play from behind, as their defensive abilities far outweigh their offense.

What should be on the Islanders’ Holiday Wish List?

A top-six scoring winger. The Islanders are in the enviable position of being a real contender that also will have relatively limitless salary cap space at the NHL Trade Deadline. The team’s low payroll will allow them to add anyone they like in a deadline deal, assuming they are willing to pay the price in trade capital. The target should be a scoring winger to assist with the Islanders’ 19th-ranked offense, currently scoring under three goals a game. Shutdown defense can win many regular season games, but is no guarantee when facing elite firepower or similarly strong defensive units in the postseason.

The Isles could really hit the jackpot if they can acquire a top-six caliber scoring winger who could also contribute on the penalty kill. Despite the team’s considerable ability to play defensive hockey in Trotz’ system, they have struggled short-handed this year, ranking 21st in the NHL. In a physical playoff series, the team could use all the help they can get with ensuring penalties don’t get the best of them.

Negotiation Notes: Greiss, Kovalchuk, Moy

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Heading into the 2018-19 season, there were few expectations for New York Islanders goaltender Thomas Greiss, who had struggled greatly as the Isles’ backup the year before. Yet, in the system implemented by new head coach Barry Trotz, Greiss excelled. He enjoyed the best season of his career, posting a .927 save percentage and 2.28 GAA in 43 games and sharing the Jennings Trophy with Robin Lehner. Yet, following the departure of Lehner this summer and the signing of Semyon Varlamov to an expensive, long-term contract, the only new expectations for Greiss were of the pessimistic kind. Many assumed that he could not possibly replicate last season, either due to a drop-off in performance or a lesser role. However, that has not been the case thus far. In fact, Greiss currently leads the league in both save percentage and goals against average through nine appearances.

The only real difference between this season and last for Greiss is what is at stake. The red-hot keeper is in the final season of a three-year, $10MM deal with New York and he knows that every game this year matters a little more when it comes to negotiating his next deal. For that reason though, Greiss tells Newsday’s Andrew Gross that he will save contract talk for the off-season. Although he could take advantage of his strong start, he also acknowledged that a slump could just as easily shift the status quo of those talks. The veteran netminder would rather play out the year and be able to take everything into account before negotiating a possible extension with the Islanders. This will also include the play of Varlamov, who has three years and $15MM remaining on his contract, and the status of Ilya Sorokin, the KHL keeper expected to be the Isles’ future in net. Like Greiss, Sorokin’s numbers are stunningly strong so far this season with CSKA Moscow and the team may feel the time has come to bring him over this summer. If so, Greiss would be unlikely to re-sign with New York, at least not at the price point he could command on the open market, and will become an intriguing free agent option this summer. However, for now the league’s top stopper wants to remain focused on the season: “It is what it is. Contract year or not, you’re working and you want to do your best so you can have success as a team.”

  • The situation in Los Angeles is complex, and probably even more so than what has been released to the public. Veteran forward Ilya Kovalchuk has been benched and there has been no indication from the Kings that his status will change any time soon. Yet, Kovalchuk has a $6.25MM cap hit this year and next and a 35+ contract which does not allow for any salary cap relief from a buyout. Unless Kovalchuk becomes desperate enough to move on with his hockey career that he is willing to negotiate a mutual termination of his contract (doubtful), a trade is likely the only way for the two sides to part ways. Yet, as TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports, there is little interest in Kovalchuk right now and his camp is concerned that there never will be if he does not get back into the lineup. LeBrun notes that agent J.P. Barry has been in constant contact with GM Rob Blake and the Kings about how to solve this situation, but L.A. does not seem willing to put Kovalchuk back on the ice just yet. In fact, as Brian La Rose discussed in his most recent mailbag, the team may be willing to wait another month before making a change, as Kovalchuk is due a considerable signing bonus on December 15 and his value on the trade market could shift once that has been paid. A team with financial limitations may be more willing to take a chance on the veteran scorer, or even just to eat his salary, once some of the real money is off the table. Barry and company will no doubt campaign for Kovalchuk to bet back in the lineup prior to late December, but can do little about it if the Kings continue to feel that they do not benefit from having him on the ice.
  • Tyler Moy, a former Nashville Predators prospect, is trying to reinvent himself in Switzerland with an eye on a return to the NHL. Moy, 24, was originally a sixth-round pick of the Predators in 2015 as an overage prospect out of Harvard University. After a four-year collegiate career, including a breakout senior campaign, Moy turned pro and enjoyed a solid if not unspectacular first pro season with the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals in 2017-18. Last year, he failed to get off to a strong start and eventually requested his release from his entry-level contract in November. Moy, a California native, ventured to Switzerland, the other country of which he is a citizen, and made an immediate splash with Lausanne HC of the NLA. Now in his second season with the team, Moy continues to play well and Axel Jeroma writes for NHL.com that he has shown improvement in every area of the game since crossing the Atlantic. While Moy is currently focused on winning a title with Lausanne, he admits that he would like to return to North America in the “foreseeable future” and plans to talk to NHL teams this summer. Without game-breaking offensive ability, Moy may not be able to jump directly into the NHL, but as he continues to develop a mature, complete game, the young forward would be more prepared to succeed in the AHL the second time around.

Carolina Hurricanes Re-Sign Petr Mrazek

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The run on goaltenders continues. As the dominoes of Robin Lehner and Semyon Varlamov fell, the Carolina Hurricanes determined that bringing back their starter was the best option. The team has announced a two-year, $6.25MM contract to bring back Petr Mrazek. Mrazek started 40 games for the Hurricanes last year, but will likely be asked to do even more moving forward.

When the 2018-19 season ended, Hurricanes GM Don Waddell made it clear that he wanted to re-sign the duo of Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney if possible. Just a few weeks later though it seemed like neither one would be back after talks failed to get extensions done. When things started falling this afternoon though, Waddell may well have realized that his best option in net was bringing back the man who got them to the playoffs a year ago.

Mrazek, 27, was a floundering goaltender without a team last year after failing to receive a qualifying offer from the Philadelphia Flyers. The Hurricanes gave him an opportunity to prove that he could still compete at the NHL level with a one-year, $1.5MM deal and he went out and had his best season in several years. In those 40 appearances, Mrazek went 23-14-3 for the Hurricanes with a .914 save percentage and helped them reach the playoffs for the first time in a decade. Unfortunately that success didn’t continue in the postseason where he posted just an .894 save percentage and was eventually replaced by McElhinney.

Still, the Czech goaltender ended up 15th overall on our Top 50 UFA list and ended up staying right where he was for a healthy raise to $3.125MM per season. He’ll get a chance to prove he is worthy of an even longer deal, but has some competition once again. The Hurricanes recently traded for James Reimer, who will actually be making more than Mrazek next season and also has a history of success in the NHL. The two will likely share the spotlight if Reimer stays with the organization for the year, giving them options as they try to contend for the playoffs once again.

Islanders Sign Semyon Varlamov To Four-Year Deal

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With Robin Lehner off the market, the New York Islanders went with their backup plan and grabbed former Colorado Avalanche keeper Semyon Varlamov. The team has announced that Varlamov has agreed to a four-year contact that will carry a $5MM average annual value. Varlamov will join Thomas Greiss in an Islanders’ tandem that is the reigning Jennings Trophy winners.

Varlamov, 31, has been a dominant goaltender in the NHL at times but on the surface doesn’t look like much of an upgrade from Lehner. Starting 39 games for the Colorado Avalanche last season he posted a .909 save percentage, but has been a Vezina finalist in the past and has a career .916 mark. He certainly could experience a boost in the Barry Trotz-led defensive system, but it is the length of the deal that seems out of place. Varlamov has dealt with injuries over his career and hasn’t played in a playoff game since 2014, not exactly the workhorse talent that GM Lou Lamoriello has targeted for his teams in the past.

The veteran goaltender came in at No. 20 on our Top 50 UFA list, though we projected him for just a two-year contract worth a total of $6.5MM. That number was obviously blown out of the water by the $20MM guarantee which includes a $6MM salary in year one. The Islanders had plenty of cap space to use today and were able to re-sign captain Anders Lee in addition to Varlamov, but the day clearly didn’t go as originally planned.  They’ll have to hope the tandem with Greiss can repeat last year’s performance and get them back to the playoffs in the Metropolitan Division.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

UFA Notes: Donskoi, Benn, Varlamov

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Free agent frenzy came early this year, with details leaking out on many of the top names a day early. Teams are not supposed to actually discuss specific financials, but cap hits and terms have poured out all evening. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet tried to summarize all of the day’s leaks and also reported some new information on a few names. One of those is Joonas Donskoi, who is still expected to sign with the Colorado Avalanche for an average annual value between $3-4MM. Friedman doesn’t give a suggestion on the term of the deal.

Donskoi ranked 21st on our list of the Top 50 UFAs after a quietly effective campaign, where we projected him to sign a three-year, $9.6MM deal with the Avalanche. The former San Jose Sharks forward may be able to outperform even that if given a bigger role in Colorado alongside some of their other talented forwards. Some other notes on pending free agents:

  • Tyler Myers and Jordie Benn are both expected to sign with the Vancouver Canucks according to Friedman, though obviously nothing is finalized until tomorrow afternoon. Myers has been linked to the Canucks for some time and may very well challenge for the biggest contract given out to a defenseman tomorrow. Benn meanwhile is also coming off a career season and has set himself up for a nice payday, though it shouldn’t come close to the money handed out to Myers. Vancouver allowed Derrick Pouliot and Ben Hutton to hit the market by not issuing them qualifying offers, and apparently have already found some veteran replacements.
  • The league-wide game of goalie musical chairs continues, with Friedman suggesting that Semyon Varlamov could be heading to the New York Islanders. The Islanders have been unable to come to terms with pending free agent netminder Robin Lehner despite his outstanding season, and since it looks like they missed out on Sergei Bobrovsky as well they needed an established goaltender to come in and help Thomas Greiss next season. No details on what Varlamov will be signing have emerged yet, but we projected just a two-year, $6.5MM deal for him in our ranking.

UFA Notes: Pickard, Agostino, Leier, Speculation

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There’s a goalie competition coming to Detroit. TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports that free agent goalie Calvin Pickard is poised to sign a two-year deal with the Red Wings when the market opens tomorrow. As Seravalli notes, that will pit him against Jonathan Bernier for the backup role behind Jimmy Howard. With Howard, 35, signed through just next year but both Bernier and soon Pickard signed for two more years, the time share in net next season in Detroit could be fascinating. Not only could the two veteran goalies battle to be Howard’s understudy next season, but they could be in line to replace him a season later. Neither keeper found much success in 2018-19. Bernier, who some expected to beat out Howard for the starting job, instead posted the worst numbers of his career – a .904 save percentage and 3.16 GAA – in 35 appearances. Pickard fared even worse, allowing an .875 save percentage and 3.86 GAA in a season split between the Philadelphia Flyers and Arizona Coyotes. Pickard’s advantage in the battle though will be his price point, expected to be low after a down year, compared to Bernier’s $3MM mark.

  • The Toronto Maple Leafs are lacking the cap space to do much of anything other than adding affordable depth pieces. Adrian Dater of Colorado Hockey Now reports that one such deal is already done. Former AHL MVP Kenny Agostino is expected to sign a two-year, one-way contract with the Leafs, though Dater does not provide any salary details. Agostino, 27, finally got a full-time look in the NHL last season, playing in 63 games with the Montreal Canadiens and New Jersey Devils. Agostino recorded 24 points on the year, a mark that Toronto would be very happy with if the winger comes in at a low cost.
  • It was a year of change for Taylor Leier, who experienced both his first trade, moving from the Philadelphia Flyers to the Buffalo Sabres, and his first season spent exclusively in the AHL. Despite qualifying for Group 6 unrestricted free agency, it seems the 25-year-old forward has place emphasis on familiarity instead of opportunity. The Rochester Americans, affiliate of the Sabres, have announced a one-year AHL contract with Leier. The signing comes as a bit of a surprise, considering Leier spent the entire 2017-18 season in the NHL and has been a very productive AHL player. Young and capable, Leier seemingly would have been a good fit for a two-way deal somewhere, but apparently would rather stay put in Rochester, perhaps in hopes of convincing Buffalo that he is worthy of an NHL contract.
  • Spoiler alert! Although he acknowledges that they are just educated guesses and provides few details, TSN’s respected insider Bob McKenzie has offered some insight where some of the biggest UFA names may end up tomorrow. McKenzie believes that Columbus teammates Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky may not end up as a package deal after all. He thinks that Panarin, and possibly Semyon Varlamov, could land with the New York Islanders, while Bobrovsky goes alone to the Florida Panthers. Those moves would then leave the Carolina Hurricanes and Columbus Blue Jackets as the likely to suitors for Robin Lehner. McKenzie also states that a long-term deal for Mats Zuccarello with the Minnesota Wild appears to be close to done.

Goalie Notes: Binnington, Carolina, Edmonton

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Jordan Binnington has been a revelation for the St. Louis Blues this season. A 25-year-old rookie who didn’t make his first NHL start until January, Binnington somehow managed to record 24 wins, a .927 save percentage, and a league-leading 1.89 GAA this season and has led the Blues to the Western Conference Final thus far in these playoffs. Binnington will be 26 before next season and has just 33 career appearances, yet he is a Calder Trophy candidate and undeniably St. Louis’ MVP in this amazing turnaround season. So how do you compensate a season like this? The Hockey News’ Matt Larkin wondered the same thing and explored three comparable contracts that the Blues may explore this off-season. The first belongs to a player with many similarities to Binnington, NHL journeyman Andrew Hammond. Hammond’s breakout season with the Ottawa Senators in 2015 was even more impressive than Binnington’s, that is until he lost his job to a healthy Craig Anderson in the postseason. A 26-year-old “prospect” with only 24 NHL appearances to his name, Hammond received just $1.35MM per year over three years from the Senators following his big season. However, Larkin points out that Hammond was not expected to be the starter in Ottawa, whereas Binnington is undoubtedly going to begin next season ahead of Jake Allen on the Blues’ depth chart. He also notes that Binnington has arbitration rights this season and no reasonable arbitrator would be convinced that Binnington is worth an equivalent contract to Hammond’s, which would only be about a $1.5MM AAV. On the other end of the spectrum, Larkin uses Winnipeg Jets’ starter Connor Hellebuyck as an example. Hellebuyck, another older prospect out of UMass – Lowell, Hellebuyck joined the Jets in 2015-16 at age 22 as the backup, struggled the next year as the part-time starter, and then had a breakout campaign last year in the final season of his entry-level contract. Winnipeg responded with a six-year deal worth more than $6MM annually for Hellebuyck. However, by the time he signed his extension, Hellebuyck had played in 149 games over three seasons, a much larger sample size than Binnington’s. He was also younger and entered the NHL with far great expectations compared to Binnington’s relative obscurity through a long AHL career. Thus, Hellebuyck also fails to be a convincing comparison for Binnington. Larkin finally settles on the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Matt Murray. Murray also came out of nowhere as a rookie, albeit a 21-year-old rookie, to start 13 games down the stretch and then lead the Penguins to a Stanley Cup behind a stellar postseason. Despite Murray’s lack of NHL experience, the Penguins had seen enough to reward their young keeper with a three-year extension worth $3.75MM per year. While Binnington is significantly older and a less heralded prospect, he has a larger sample size and slightly better regular season numbers than Murray, making the deal a fair comparison. Under the current salary cap, which is likely to increase this summer, Murray’s deal would equate to about a $4.25MM AAV for Binnington. So what should Blues fans expect in a Binnington extension? The safe bet is somewhere between three and four years at $4-4.5MM per year, but a Stanley Cup title could still push that value even higher for the breakout keeper.

  • According to Shawn P. Roarke of NHL.com, Carolina Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour says there is a “pretty good chance” he goes back to Curtis McElhinney in net for an elimination Game Four against the Boston Bruins on Thursday. McElhinney has played well this postseason in relief of Petr Mrazek, including in Game Three. McElhinney made 29 saves and allowed just two goals on Tuesday night after Mrazek surrendered ten goals combined in Games One and Two. At this point, McElhinney does seem to give the Hurricanes the best chance to win against Boston, but is there more at stake here? Whether McElhinney or Mrazek are in net, the odds of Carolina winning Game Four are slim and the chances they win four in a row to advance are much, much worse. When the ’Canes are inevitably eliminated, they face a reality of both Mrazek and McElhinney being unrestricted free agents. If forced to choose between the two, one would certainly think that the team would prefer to bring back Mrazek, who outplayed McElhinney this season – and is nine years younger. However, they take the risk in going back to McElhinney, who lost nevertheless in Game Three, that Mrazek no longer feels like the top option in Carolina and looks for other opportunities on the open market. After a strong season, the Hurricanes can’t afford a downgrade in net, so unless they are open to spending more on a free agent upgrade to Mrazek – a Robin Lehner or Semyon Varlamov for example – they’ll need to be careful with how the approach his confidence as this playoff run winds down.
  • Is new Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland happy to enter next season with Mikko Koskinen and (Group 6 free agent) Anthony Stolarz in net? If not, he could have a hard time attracting free agents and might instead look to his old team for help. Steve Yzerman may also want to bring in fresh blood in Detroit, but the Red Wings are locked in to Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Bernier next season to the tune of $7MM. The ink is still drying on Howard’s extension with the team and his loyalty likely lies more with the city of Detroit than with Holland. After a nice season, it would be a surprise for Howard to be dealt away. However, Yzerman will likely be willing to move the disappointing Bernier and Holland would seemingly be interested. After all, it was Holland who signed the journeyman to a three-year, $9MM contract just last summer. He very well may feel that Bernier can still live up to that contract, even after a poor first season with the Red Wings. It would not come as much of a surprise if Bernier outperforms Koskinen next season, so if Holland can re-acquire the veteran net minder on the cheap, it could make sense for the Oilers.

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