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Montreal, Boston Find Themselves Atop Goaltending Salary Chart

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The NHL is a tricky league when it comes to building a winning team under the salary cap. Often, clubs are encouraged to sign their homegrown talent to exorbitant long-term contracts before they hit free agency, almost regardless of what position they play. Many clubs will dole out dollars without question to their star forwards and defense, but there does seem to be some hesitation when it comes to goaltending. The obvious reason for that is that only one goaltender can be on the ice at any time, and teams generally carry just two on the roster.

Over the years we’ve seen teams continually move on from young netminding talents, trading them away to teams desperate for an upgrade. That’s only really possible if the team has solidified the position already, a confidence that can weaken extremely quickly. Several of the league’s starting goaltenders—including the likes of Frederik Andersen, Martin Jones and Cory Schneider—have been traded in recent years and are on their second or third teams. They’ve earned high salaries and long-term stability, but their prior availability begs a question. Is it necessary (or even recommended) to pay top dollar for goaltenders?

In Montreal we will see the answer to this question play out over the next few seasons. In 2018-19 Carey Price will begin his eight-year, $84MM extension that makes him the highest-paid goaltender in the league with a $15MM salary and $10.5MM cap hit. The front-loaded deal will pay him twice as much as Henrik Lundqvist, the next highest-paid goaltender in the league, and carries a cap hit of $2MM more. That puts Montreal right at the top of the list for spending on goaltenders, even with the paltry $950K they will be paying Antti Niemi in a backup role. Even in a healthy season for Price he’ll likely only start around 65 of Montreal’s 82 games, meaning Niemi will still be in more than 20% of their action for less than 10% of the cap hit.

You might not be surprised by the Buffalo Sabres appearance at the bottom of the spending list, with Carter Hutton and Linus Ullmark combining for just $3.5MM this season. The Sabres did after all finish dead last in the NHL during the 2017-18 season, and are probably still a few years away from really competing for the Stanley Cup. The bottom third of the list though has some other interesting entries.

The Pittsburgh Penguins, Tampa Bay Lightning and Anaheim Ducks all still consider themselves contenders, but will employ extremely inexpensive tandems this season. There is a common thread among those teams though, as they are all using young goaltenders on their second contracts. John Gibson was given a huge extension from Anaheim recently, and Andrei Vasilevskiy and Matt Murray will be paid in time. The question though is where does the threshold lie for goaltending salaries? Murray, for example, has an up-and-coming goaltender in Tristan Jarry right behind him, who could potentially put up at least league average numbers for a greatly reduced price. Is that more beneficial for roster construction, given that Murray will likely demand a contract in 2020 that would make him among the league’s highest-paid goaltenders?

The answer isn’t clear, as the Boston Bruins have found success in recent years even paying Tuukka Rask his high $7MM salary. They find themselves second on the list now that Jaroslav Halak has been added as Rask’s backup, but still are in fine shape financially thanks to some reasonably-priced stars in their lineup. The entire list is below, though it doesn’t include the years remaining on each contract. That is obviously a huge factor when determining goaltender worth going forward, but would be difficult to order.

2018-19 Goaltending Cap Hits

Montreal Canadiens – $11.45MM – Carey Price ($10.5MM), Antti Niemi ($950K)

Boston Bruins – $9.75MM – Tuukka Rask ($7.0MM), Jaroslav Halak ($2.75MM)

Colorado Avalanche – $9.23MM – Semyon Varlamov ($5.9MM), Philipp Grubauer ($3.33MM)

Florida Panthers – $9.23MM – Roberto Luongo ($4.53MM), James Reimer ($3.4MM), Michael Hutchinson ($1.3MM)*

New York Rangers – $9.15MM – Henrik Lundqvist ($8.5MM), Marek Mazanec ($650K)

Chicago Blackhawks – $9.0MM – Corey Crawford ($6.0MM), Cam Ward ($3.0MM)

Nashville Predators – $8.5MM – Pekka Rinne ($7.0MM), Juuse Saros ($1.5MM)

Columbus Blue Jackets – $8.33MM – Sergei Bobrovsky ($7.43MM), Joonas Korpisalo ($900K)

Detroit Red Wings – $8.29MM – Jimmy Howard ($5.29MM), Jonathan Bernier ($3.0MM)

San Jose Sharks – $7.65MM – Martin Jones ($5.75MM), Aaron Dell ($1.9MM)

Dallas Stars – $7.42MM – Ben Bishop ($4.92MM), Anton Khudobin ($2.5MM)

New Jersey Devils – $7.25MM – Cory Schneider ($6.0MM), Keith Kinkaid ($1.25MM)

Ottawa Senators – $7.15MM – Craig Anderson ($4.75MM), Mike Condon ($2.4MM)

Los Angeles Kings – $6.83MM – Jonathan Quick ($5.8MM), Peter Budaj ($1.03MM)

Winnipeg Jets – $6.82MM – Connor Hellebuyck ($6.17MM), Laurent Brossoit ($650K)

Washington Capitals – $6.75MM – Braden Holtby ($6.1MM), Pheonix Copley ($650K)

Edmonton Oilers – $6.67MM – Cam Talbot ($4.17MM), Mikko Koskinen ($2.5MM)

Vegas Golden Knights – $6.4MM – Marc-Andre Fleury ($5.75MM), Malcolm Subban ($650K)

Vancouver Canucks – $6.17MM – Jacob Markstrom ($3.67MM), Anders Nilsson ($2.5MM)

Arizona Coyotes – $6.1MM – Antti Raanta ($4.25MM), Darcy Kuemper ($1.85MM)

St. Louis Blues – $6.1MM – Jake Allen ($4.35MM), Chad Johnson ($1.75MM)

Toronto Maple Leafs – $5.85MM – Frederik Andersen ($5.0MM), Curtis McElhinney ($850K)

Carolina Hurricanes – $5.65MM – Scott Darling ($4.15MM), Petr Mrazek ($1.5MM)

Philadelphia Flyers – $5.25MM – Brian Elliott ($2.75MM), Michal Neuvirth ($2.5MM)

Calgary Flames – $5.05MM – Mike Smith ($4.25MM), David Rittich ($800K)

Minnesota Wild – $4.98MM – Devan Dubnyk ($4.33MM), Alex Stalock ($650K)

New York Islanders – $4.83MM – Thomas Greiss ($3.33MM), Robin Lehner ($1.5MM)

Tampa Bay Lightning – $4.65MM – Andrei Vasilevskiy ($3.5MM), Louis Domingue ($1.15MM)

Pittsburgh Penguins – $4.43MM – Matt Murray ($3.75MM), Tristan Jarry ($675K)

Anaheim Ducks – $4.3MM– John Gibson ($2.3MM), Ryan Miller ($2.0MM)

Buffalo Sabres – $3.5MM – Carter Hutton ($2.75MM), Linus Ullmark ($750K)

*The Panthers are unlikely to carry three goaltenders in the NHL the entire season, but Hutchinson’s one-way contract is still a substantial figure.

Toronto Maple Leafs Take Up Unlikely Residence Near Bottom Of Salary List

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the NHL’s great financial powerhouses. For years they used this financial might to sign or trade for legendary players who were no longer in their prime, willing to spare no expense to try and squeeze the last bit of talent out of the aging superstars. Ron Francis, Brian Leetch, Phil Housley, Joe Nieuwendyk, Owen Nolan, Eric Lindros, and on and on the list went to no avail. The Maple Leafs have failed for more than 50 years to secure a Stanley Cup, and to do it now would take a different approach.

With the installation of the salary cap, teams like Toronto and the Detroit Red Wings could no longer throw money at players and routinely spend countless dollars more than their competition. They could however remain at the cap ceiling year after year, spending every dollar allowed to try to bring a championship back to the city. This year though, things seem different. When perusing CapFriendly’s front page, one thing sticks out—the Maple Leafs have the third-lowest salary obligations for the 2018-19 season, only sitting ahead of the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils, two teams who often don’t spend to the cap ceiling.

Now of course the $65.7MM figure that is listed as the projected cap hit of the Maple Leafs doesn’t tell the whole story. The team still needs to sign restricted free agent William Nylander to a new contract before the season begins, and the young forward is looking for a long-term deal. That would take up a substantial chunk—perhaps as much as $6-7MM—of the $13.8MM in cap space the Maple Leafs currently enjoy. That number also includes only six defensemen, which is at least one fewer than the team will carry during the season. The extra body will likely cost them somewhere between $650K and $925K, depending on who they decide to bring up to the NHL.

The team also still has Nathan Horton’s contract on the books though, despite the power forward not expected to ever play again. His $5.3MM cap hit could be placed on long-term injured reserve to give them even more salary flexibility, a tact that the team used last season with Horton and fellow injured forward Joffrey Lupul. The team won’t need to do that though unless they’re in danger of going over the cap ceiling, something they have no way of doing with the current projected roster.

It is then curious why the Maple Leafs haven’t taken advantage of this cap space. The quick explanation would be that they’re looking forward to next season when Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson will all need new contracts that could eat upwards of $20MM in cap space. The team will be shelling out cash to their young forward group and can’t take on any extra salary at the moment. But imagining Toronto leaving somewhere between $6-7MM in cap space available all season seems impossible, given their history of using every penny available to them.

Other than that idea worrying of about the future contracts there are two other potential explanations. One, is that the Maple Leafs believe that their young group will perform well enough to cash in on big performance bonuses once again. Matthews and Marner are both still on their entry-level contracts, and could earn up to $3.7MM in performance bonuses should they hit on all their targets. Even Par Lindholm, who was signed out of the SHL this season as a potential fourth-line center can earn up to $850K in bonuses, while Igor Ozhiganov who was brought over from the KHL to compete for a spot on the blue line could do the same. Any performance bonuses that a team doesn’t have room for under the cap are carried over to the next season, something that the Maple Leafs can’t really afford to have happen.

The other explanation though is much more exciting for Maple Leafs fans, as it means they could go after some of the biggest fish on the trade market at the deadline. As the season goes on, teams bank unused cap space while player cap hits get slowly paid off. That means acquiring a $7MM player at the trade deadline doesn’t take up the same amount of cap space as he would a few months earlier, and means that a team sitting below the cap ceiling all season could theoretically add a ton of salary for the last push towards the playoffs. For instance, if the Maple Leafs played the entire year with their current roster—that’s the one without Nylander or another defenseman—CapFriendly projects they could take on more than $64MM in player cap hits at the deadline.

That kind of cap space is important and can be very useful if used in the right situation. Many teams that spend right up to the ceiling from day one of the season find themselves having to balance out trades by sending out money, something that the Maple Leafs wouldn’t have to do even if they wanted to bring in the top rentals on the market. If the potential 2019 free agent market is anything to go by—which is a premature assumption to say the least—the trade deadline should be flush with talent, no matter which teams are still in the playoff hunt. Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, Jordan Eberle, Jeff Skinner, Kevin Hayes, Gustav Nyquist, Mats Zuccarello, Max Pacioretty, and Anders Lee are all players who are both on the last year of their contract and playing for teams who aren’t expected to compete for the Stanley Cup. They could all be available without any commitment in the future, and a team like Toronto could add several if they’re willing to give up the prospects to do it.

You don’t see the Maple Leafs at the bottom of the salary list very often. You likely won’t again for a very long time. But for now, it’s making them either a cautious builder or a dangerous trade shark. Or maybe a bit of both.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Franchise Reset In Ottawa Could Come Quickly

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The Ottawa Senators have had one of the worst years imaginable, going from overtime in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, to a good bet for the bottom of the NHL standings in the upcoming season. During that time they used a big package of future assets to acquire Matt Duchene, had a public locker room problem that forced a clearance sale of Mike Hoffman, dealt with a legal scandal for one of their front office executives and couldn’t even win a draft lottery spot. That’s not even mentioning the potential trade of franchise defenseman and captain Erik Karlsson, which still may occur before the start of the season.

Even though there has been nothing but struggles for the Senators of late, a successful navigation of the next few seasons could set them up for a quick rebuild. The Senators currently only have one player, forward Bobby Ryan, signed for more than three seasons and will see at least eight roster players hit the unrestricted free agent market in 2019. That kind of financial freedom can really help a franchise, even one like Ottawa that doesn’t usually spend up to the salary cap and instead operates on an internal budget.

In a perfect world, the team would be able to re-sign Karlsson, Duchene and Mark Stone to multi-year contracts and supplement them with some young talent to compete right away. But it doesn’t seem like any of those things will be possible for the Senators, which might still leave them with a perfectly acceptable second option. Trading all three could immediately jump the Senators prospect pool to one of the best in the NHL, especially given their recent addition of Brady Tkachuk and Jacob Bernard-Docker. The fact that they don’t own their 2019 first-round pick hurts, but at this point is a sunk cost and has to be worked around.

There are other roster players who could still bring value back in trade, and given that almost all of them will hit UFA status in the next two seasons there may be a firesale coming before long. While that will cause a painful season (or two), there’s no reason to believe that the Senators can’t put it behind them in short order. They have just over $17MM committed to roster players in 2020-21, and a good chunk of that is Ryan who could potentially be strapped to Karlsson on his way out. Even if they’re only hitting the salary cap floor, by that point they’d still need to be adding somewhere around $45MM.

It’s hard to believe that a team experiencing such lows could be close to bouncing back, but we’ve seen it multiple times over the last few seasons. The Toronto Maple Leafs went from dead last to the playoffs in just one season, but it was clearing their future salaries that allowed them to have so much success so quickly. The team traded away hefty contracts like Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf for whatever they could get, and built around a young core instead. Auston Matthews was obviously the spark that set the Maple Leafs competitive fire, but they were already headed in the right direction.

The Colorado Avalanche just experienced something similar, ironically moving Duchene to Ottawa in order to give their younger players more opportunity. Colorado jumped from a historically bad 2016-17 back to the playoffs last season, riding a young core of Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen all season. Before signing Ian Cole, Philipp Grubauer and Matt Calvert this summer, the Avalanche too had a very bare future salary book. Only MacKinnon, Erik Johnson and Gabriel Landeskog were signed through 2020-21, giving them the flexibility to add when they were ready.

Ottawa already decided not to sign Kyle Turris and Derick Brassard to extensions, instead trading them away during the season. They also dealt Phaneuf’s contract away, though had to take Marian Gaborik back to do it. There’s more work to be done to build up the prospect system to a point where it could really compete in just a few years, but there is definitely potential to do so.

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part III

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third and second third of the league; here are the contracts that each of the final ten teams would most like to trade, from Philadelphia to Winnipeg:

Philadelphia Flyers: Andrew MacDonald – two years, $10MM remaining

Based purely on salary versus what he brings to the table, Jori Lehtera’s $4.7MM contract is the worst on the Flyers. However, Philadelphia is far from cap trouble this season, currently among the five lightest payrolls in the league, and Lehtera’s deal expires after this season. However, next year the Flyers will need to re-sign or replace Wayne Simmonds, hand new deals to Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, and likely find a new starting goalie. The cap crunch will be much more real and the over-inflated $5MM contract of Andrew MacDonald will hurt. MacDonald’s six-year, $30MM contract was immediately panned by the public and it wasn’t long after that he was buried in the minors for cap relief and to keep him out of the lineup. MacDonald simply is not the player he was with the New York Islanders earlier in his career when he could eat major minutes, was stellar in man-to-man defense, and could block shots with the best. What he is being paid now is far beyond what he is actually worth. Some would say that Radko Gudas is worse, but that is an argument that suffers from recency bias. Combining the past two seasons, Gudas actually has the same amount of points as MacDonald in fewer games and less ice time, a better plus/minus rating, far more shots, and of course infinitely more hits. At $3.35MM for the next two years, Gudas is a far better deal.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Carl Hagelin – one year, $4MM remaining

The real answer is that GM Jim Rutherford would not like to trade any more players. He already ditched two of his worst contracts by sending Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres and he isn’t eager to make another salary dump. However, the reality is that Rutherford is going to find it hard to manipulate his roster this season with just over $1MM in cap space. As such, it is likely that another Penguin could be on the move. An outside observer could easily point to the Jack Johnson contract as one that stands little chance of maintaining its value over the term and the same argument could be made for Patric Hornqvist as well. However, Rutherford just signed those deals and wouldn’t move them even if he could. That leaves a short list of players who could be moved and the only one that sticks out as being overpriced is Carl Hagelin. Hagelin has played an important part of the Penguins’ reign over the past few years, but at $4MM he has not cracked 40 points in any of the three seasons and can go cold for weeks at a time. Rutherford won’t make a move unless it can benefit the team, but if he can get another scoring winger in exchange for a package that dumps Hagelin’s salary, he’ll do it.

San Jose Sharks: None

Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, and Paul Martin are all gone. Two top forwards, the two best defensemen, and the starting goalie are all locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. The Sharks have almost $4.5MM in cap space this season, giving them room to add. Congratulations to GM Doug Wilson and his staff. This roster is the epitome of cap compliance mixed with depth and talent. There is not one contract that the team would be interested in dumping.

St. Louis Blues: Alexander Steen – three years, $17.25MM remaining

The Blues currently have all but $285K of their cap space committed to 24 players. The team may send Chris Thorburn or Jordan Nolan down to the AHL, but will only gain marginal space. Something else has to give. If they could target any player to move to alleviate some pressure, it would be Alexander Steen. With just seven forwards and three defensemen (as of now) signed beyond next season and the majority of players in line for raises or free agent replacements, these cap woes aren’t going away anytime soon and an expensive long-term deal needs to be shipped out. Understandably, St. Louis is all in this season and wouldn’t be eager to ship out an important top-six piece. However, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Jaden Schwartz are the new young core up front now and paying 34-year-old Steen $5.75MM for three more years for declining production just doesn’t make sense. The Blues could potentially land some nice pieces from another contender for Steen as well. Admittedly, the Tyler Bozak contract looks even worse than Steen’s, but the Blues won’t be looking to trade a player they just signed.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Ryan Callahan – two years, $11.6MM remaining

The long-term implications of several other deals aside, the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is wide open and their focus is on the here and now. The one player really impeding their ability to add freely to the roster is Ryan Callahan. While GM Steve Yzerman has excelled at extending most of his core below market value, the six-year, $34.8MM contract for Callahan was a mistake. Injuries limited Callahan to just 18 games in 2016-17, but last year he played in 67 games yet he only managed to score 18 points. Callahan’s days as an impact player are over, but he is still being paid like one at $5.8MM. While Tampa Bay can manage this season with close to $3MM in cap space, they would have more to work with without him. However, Callahan’s contract will really present a major road block next summer, when the Bolts need to re-sign Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and more. There is no doubt that Yzerman will look to unload Callahan’s contract before it comes to that point.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Nikita Zaitsev – six years, $27MM remaining

The Maple Leafs severely jumped the gun when they rewarded Nikita Zaitsev with a seven-year deal after his rookie season in 2016-17. Although Zaitsev was an import, making his NHL debut at 25 years old, his situation epitomizes why bridge deals exist. Toronto sought to lock him up long term and gave him nearly a maximum term at $4.5MM, just $500K less per year than top defender Morgan Rielly. In his encore performance last season, he showed that he is not worthy of the salary nor length of that contract, dropping from 36 points to 13 points for the year, turning the puck over at an alarming rate, and eventually becoming a healthy scratch. This team simply can’t afford the type of long-term mistake that they made with Zaitsev. While it’s nice that they have Reilly, John Tavares, and Nazem Kadri signed long-term, it’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander they need to worry about. The Maple Leafs will have to balance multiple expensive, long-term deals moving forward and would love for Zaitsev’s to not be one of them.

Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson – four years, $24MM remaining

It seems unlikely that the recently-signed deals for Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel will work out well, but they at least deserve some time. Loui Eriksson has had his time and has done nothing with it. While the Canucks aren’t under any cap pressure, they can’t enjoy seeing Eriksson’s $6MM cap hit – the highest on the team – on the books for four more years, especially when the bulk of his front-loaded salary has already been paid out. Eriksson was brought in with an expectation that he would be the ultimate fit with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Instead, he has scored just 47 points combined over two seasons, less than his final season total with the Boston Bruins. The Sedins are now gone, the team is trying to get both younger and more physical and defensive-minded, and Eriksson is simply an expensive poor fit. There’s not much more to say about a player who desperately needs a change of scenery and a team that wants him gone.

Vegas Golden Knights: None

The Golden Knights are riding high after an outrageously successful first season in the NHL. It is highly unlikely that they see anything wrong with their current contracts, almost all of which were either hand-picked or signed by GM George McPhee. Give it some time and that could change. Reilly Smith is notorious for a significant drop in production in his second year with a team, but is signed for four more years at $5MM. Paul Stastny for three years at $6.5MM per seems like a solid deal, but he has always produced better surrounded by equal talent. Does Vegas have enough to justify his signing? A $2.775MM cap hit for Ryan Reaves doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Finally, there’s the three-year, $21MM extension for heroic goalie but also 33-year-old well-worn vet Marc-Andre Fleury, which could end poorly. And this isn’t even counting what could be a massive reactionary contract for one-year breakout star William Karlsson. The Knights don’t see any problems right now after finding immediate success, but if they slide significantly in year two, things could get ugly.

Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie – seven years, $40.25MM remaining

No, it’s not Tom Wilson. The call of the question is which contract each team wants to trade, not which is objectively the worst. Wilson’s contract does seem excessive, but he is just 24 and could grow into that salary (doubtful but possible). Plus, the organization loves what he brings to the team. T.J. Oshie on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction. Oshie has done what he was brought in to do: help the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. It took a max eight-year term to keep Oshie off the market last summer and now Washington has their Cup but also has a 31-year-old with diminishing returns signed for seven more years. Oshie could absolutely still help the Capitals over the next few years, but it’s doubtful that he will be back in 60-point range in that time. He also will be nothing more than a cap space vacuum when he’s in his late thirties making $5.75MM. Oshie is a great player and one of the more likeable guys in the league, but this contract has little upside left. The Capitals would at the very least consider trading Oshie now, which can’t be said for most of their other core players.

Winnipeg Jets: Jacob Trouba – one year, $5.5MM remaining

The list ends with a tricky one. Is $5.5MM a fair value for Trouba? An arbitrator thinks so and the Jets would likely agree. However, Trouba’s contract has been a nightmare for the team. The young defenseman clearly does not want to be in Winnipeg and has set himself up for yet another arbitration clash next summer, after which he will bolt in free agency. The Jets have no long-term security with Trouba and that meddles with their future planning. With Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers, and several others also in need of new contracts next summer, the Jets don’t need another Trouba arbitration award cutting into their cap space just so that he can walk after the season. The team will definitely look to get maximum value in a trade for Trouba over the next season.

Los Angeles Kings Face 2019 Cap Crunch

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The Los Angeles Kings were expected to be big players this summer after a frustratingly quick first-round exit last season. The same issue that had plagued them in recent years—a lack of goal scoring—popped up again in their series with the Vegas Golden Knights as the team scored just three goals while being swept out in four games. While Marc-Andre Fleury played extremely well for the Golden Knights, seeing the Kings struggle to put the puck in the net was nothing new for fans of the team. The 239 goals they scored in the 2017-18 were the second fewest among all playoff teams, and actually a substantial increase over the 201 they had scored in 2016-17. Even with an MVP-level season from Anze Kopitar, the team needed more offense.

In came Ilya Kovalchuk as the team’s big offseason move, bringing back the 35-year old sniper from the KHL on a three-year, $18.75MM deal. Kovalchuk was fresh off another exceptional season in the KHL and had won the Olympic MVP while taking home gold with Russia. The former Atlanta Thrashers and New Jersey Devils forward should bring some added scoring punch to the lineup this season, though there is no guarantee he is still the elite player he once was. The fact that he’s heading into the back half of his thirties should also give pause to any lofty expectations, despite his big contract.

That big contract though, and the eight-year $88MM extension given to Drew Doughty ahead of the final year of his current deal, could also contribute to an extreme salary cap crunch for the Kings next summer. While the team currently has just over $2.1MM in cap space according to CapFriendly with a roster of 21 players (including Jack Campbell as a third goaltender) next offseason is where it could get really difficult. With Doughty’s deal kicking in and big-money contracts still owed to Kovalchuk, Kopitar and others, the team projects to have just around $5.3MM in cap space with only 15 players under contract. Among those who will need new deals as restricted free agents are Adrian Kempe and Alex Iafallo, both of whom will have to be key pieces to an offensive turnaround.

Eight of those players under contract for the 2019-20 season are already in their thirties, while Jake Muzzin will be joining them in February. That’s a ton of money dedicated to players on the back half of their careers, and will create quite a dilemma for the Kings going forward. The team does have some very intriguing prospects like Gabe Vilardi, Rasmus Kupari, Akil Thomas and Kale Clague in the system, but will they be enough to supplement an aging roster that is taking up a huge part of the cap? Even just finding enough money to put together a 23-man roster next summer could be challenging, especially if either Iafallo or Kempe really break out and demand a big pay raise.

The other issue is that the cap crunch will prevent the team from really chasing any more scoring help in trade unless the player comes without a contract for the 2019-20 season. Though rentals certainly can be helpful for a playoff run, they often cost more in future assets than they’re worth and bring nothing but more disappointment and regret in the postseason. The lack of future flexibility the Kings find themselves with makes it tough to really be contenders on the trade market, unless they’re prepared to send salary the other way. The defense corps, which took on Dion Phaneuf and his expensive contract last season, would be the obvious target for any salary shedding, but it is also the strongest part of the team.

The Kings should be in the playoff hunt this season, and could experience an offensive renaissance with Kovalchuk in the mix. If they don’t though, prepare for plenty of speculation about them shedding some of their aging contracts at the deadline in an attempt to gain some flexibility going forward. As it stands, they may have to move out a valuable asset just to get under the cap in 2019.

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part II

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third of the league; here are the contracts that each team would most like to trade, from Detroit to Ottawa:

Detroit Red Wings: Frans Nielsen – four years, $21MM remaining

As speculated by some readers in the comments section, it was no mistake that Part I ended with Dallas. Detroit deserved both some extra consideration and to lead off an article about poor contracts. There is an argument to be made that almost every single player age 28 and over on the Red Wings roster is signed to a bad contract for one reason or another. Detroit is a team that ranks towards the bottom of the standings and towards the top of the salary cap and that is not just bad luck. However, some are much worse than others and they are so bad that it is tough to choose between them. Take this scenario: Player A scored 35 points in 75 games last season. It was 14 points more than the season prior, including six more goals, and Player A also led the team in hits. He is 31 years old and signed for five more years at $4.25MM per. Player B scored 33 points in 79 games last season. It was eight points less than the season prior, and Player B also had the worst face-off percentage among the team’s centers. He is 34 years old and signed for four more years at $5.25MM per. Still undecided about which contract the team would rather trade? Player A is a Michigan native and career Red Wing and Player B is entering only his third year after signing a lucrative free agent contract. Player A of course is perennial whipping boy Justin Abdelkader. Yes, the Abdelkader contract is terrible. At no point in his career has he been worth his current contract value. Yet, he improved last season, is younger and brings a defensive element to his game, and is also loyal to the current administration – the call of the question after all is which contract the team would most like to trade. That would instead be Player B, Frans Nielsen, who at 34 is predictably declining and last year made more than Abdelkader for less production and there is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue. The team rewarded Adbelkader for years of service, whereas they took a gamble on Nielsen that hasn’t paid off. One of those moves is far more regrettable. Nielsen is the guy, but he only narrowly edged out Abdelkader and defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who also has relative age and Detroit roots to his advantage.

Edmonton Oilers: Milan Lucic – five years, $30MM remaining

The Oilers can refute trade rumors surrounding Milan Lucic all they want. The truth of the matter is that GM Peter Chiarelli signed Lucic hoping that he could both produce with and protect Connor McDavid in Edmonton as he did for David Krejci in Boston. The only problem is that the 30-year-old power forward can no longer keep up with a player of McDavid’s caliber. Lucic managed to score 34 points last season, tied for fourth on the team, but that is nowhere near what is expected of a $6MM player, especially when he scored 50 in year one with the Oilers and topped that mark many times with the Bruins. Edmonton still may be holding out hope that Lucic can turn it around and be just as much of a scoring threat as he is a physical threat, but make no mistake that the team would be quick to get rid of his contract if the right deal came along. In contrast, the team would be far more hesitant to move a hefty contract like defenseman Andrej Sekera who has been good and injury-prone, rather than healthy and underwhelming.

Florida Panthers: Roberto Luongo – four years, $18.13MM remaining

Florida is a tough one. Dale Tallon has done a good job of locking up his core long-term and, despite being right up against the cap, there are few egregious contracts on the roster right now. Give it a few years and maybe Michael Matheson will hold this title, but for now it goes to Roberto Luongo by default. Of course, Luongo is beloved in Florida and the team doesn’t even have to carry the whole of his cap hit, with the Vancouver Canucks retaining $800K each year. However, the reality is that Luongo will turn 40 this season and it will be only the first of four years left on his deal. The Panthers have almost $8MM committed to two goalies for the next few years and the other, James Reimer, is younger and outplayed Luongo in 2016-17 and in more games to boot. While they both fought injuries this past season, it was Luongo back on top performance-wise, but the impressive numbers he did post came in just 35 appearances versus Reimer’s 44. Florida paying over $4.5MM per year to a backup goalie in his forties just doesn’t make sense and the team would be better off moving forward with just Reimer and Michael Hutchinson if they could find a way to trade Luongo. Another reason this contract is bad: both the Panthers and Canucks will be hit with cap recapture penalties if Luongo retires prior to 2022.

Los Angeles Kings: Dustin Brown – four years, $23.5MM remaining

For the first time in years, Kings fans are feeling good about Dustin Brown. That is why now is the perfect time to trade him. Brown had been the bane of L.A.’s existence for four years, registering no more than 36 points each year while eating up $5.875MM in cap space, when he finally broke out of his funk in 2017-18 with a massive 61-point season and one of the league’s best plus/minus ratings. The question now is whether the past four years were an aberration with this season setting a new baseline or will Brown regress back to his bottom-six production. With a cap-strapped roster full of expensive contracts for older players, L.A. can’t take the risk of keeping Brown around if the right opportunity presents itself. They would be forced to trade the career King if a taker came forward rather than hold out hope that he doesn’t revert back to his old ways of being drastically overpaid.

Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise – seven years, $52.77MM remaining

When the Wild signed 28-year-old’s Zach Parise and Ryan Suter to matching 13-year contracts worth almost $100MM apiece, they knew that those deals would have dark days at some point in the future. However, they never could have imagined that Parise’s decline would come so soon. Parise remains one of the most popular players on the team, but injuries have kept him off the ice and affected his play when on the ice over the ice and his stock is falling quickly. Parise has never been able to reach the peaks he enjoyed in New Jersey, but he still produced at a high level over his first four seasons with the team. The past two years have been a different story and Parise appears to be trending in the wrong direction. Now 33, Parise isn’t totally beyond help and could turn it around. If back at 100%, Parise has enough natural ability and enough talent around him to still be a $7.5MM player. However, it would be nearly impossible for Minnesota to ever move the behemoth that is his contract so, if somehow they received an offer, they would take it without a second thought. Fan favorite or not, there is too much risk associated with Parise moving forward.

Montreal Canadiens: Shea Weber – seven years, $55MM remaining

I know what you’re thinking and yes, the Carey Price contract doesn’t look great right now. However, an extension of any length and value for any player coming off an injury-riddled season would bring a skewed perception. Price has been one of the best goalies in the league for years and one bad season doesn’t change that. Will he lose that title in the next eight years? For sure, but it would be a shock to see the Canadiens move their poster boy any time soon. Their #1 defenseman is another question though. When Montreal acquired Shea Weber for P.K. Subban, they never could have anticipated that his body would break down so soon after. Injuries cost Weber all but 26 games last season and he will miss the beginning of 2018-19 as well. Weber doesn’t seem like the type of player who will retire early, but there is no guarantee that these injuries won’t slow him down significantly for the remainder of his contract. In fact, the only guarantee is that he will slow down over the next seven years. At $7.86MM, the Canadiens need Weber to be his dynamic two-way self. The team already has one overpaid stay-at-home defenseman in Karl Alzner and can’t afford another. If they could move Weber, they would.

Nashville Predators: None

GM David Poile flat out doesn’t sign bad contracts. Criticize the deals for Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris if you like, but the bargain contracts throughout the rest of the lineup have allowed Poile to overpay for reliable centers and that is a team-building model that anyone can get behind.

New Jersey Devils: Corey Schneider – four years, $24MM remaining

The easy answer is that the Devils don’t feel any pressure to trade anyone on the roster. They currently have the lowest payroll in the league with nearly every player signed to a fair deal. Those who are overpriced – Travis Zajac and Andy Greene – play important leadership role and the only player signed to a substantially long-term deal is electric young blue liner Damon Severson. The one and only player that sticks out as a potential long-term cap problem is starting goaltender Corey Schneider. This may surprises some; after all Schneider trails only Tuukka Rask among active save percentage leaders. Schneider had been elite since arriving in New Jersey, but something started to change in 2016-17. His SV% fell to .908 and his GAA inflated to 2.82 and then things only got worse last season with a SV% of .907 and a GAA of 2.93. He was also limited to just 40 appearances this year and was outplayed by journeyman Keith Kinkaid. The Devils can’t count on Kinkaid to repeat his 2017-18 performance moving forward and if Schneider’s back-to-back bad years are more than a fluke, they can’t depend on him for four more years either. He’s not going to be a $6MM backup either. New Jersey will give Schneider the time he needs to return to form, but they may not hesitate if the right trade comes their way as well.

New York Islanders: Andrew Ladd – five years, $27.5MM remaining

The Islanders without John Tavares are a totally different animal. A six-year, $30MM extension for Josh Bailey now looks bad. A $5.75MM cap hit this season for free agents Leo Komarov and Valtteri Filppula signed to make up for Tavares’ lost production looks bad. The likes of Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, and Matt Martin now look worse on a team that needs more offense and less grit. However, the one contract that looked miserable well before Tavares bolted to Toronto is Andrew Ladd and it is only going to get much worse. The veteran forward was intended to find chemistry with Tavares when he was signed to a seven-year, $38.5MM contract two years ago. Instead, Ladd has just 60 points over the past two seasons combined and has by all accounts been relegated to a bottom-six role. The 32-year-old will now be asked to take a bigger role in Tavares’ stead and that is a scary proposition. The Islanders aren’t in any cap trouble, but the team should be thinking rebuild and would likely take any offer at all to rid themselves of Ladd.

New York Rangers: Brendan Smith – three years, $13.05MM remaining

Has any free agent contract in recent memory soured as quickly as Brendan Smith’s? Smith signed a four-year deal with the Rangers last June and was expected to play a top-four role for the team for years to come. By February, he had been placed on waivers and buried in the AHL. Smith played in only 44 games with New York and saw less and less ice time as the season wore on and he continued to turn the puck over at an alarming rate and cost his team goals. Now what? One would assume that Smith will be given a second chance this season, but the relationship between he and the team may be beyond repair. There is no doubt that the Rangers would take a re-do on that deal and would move him if possible. Marc Staal is another player that New York wouldn’t mind moving, but as a player who can eat minutes and provide solid play most of the time, his $5.7MM contract seems like nothing next to Smith’s $4.35MM deal.

Ottawa Senators: Bobby Ryan – four years, $29MM remaining

No contract in the league has become as notorious for being labeled a “bad deal” that the team is desperate to trade like Bobby Ryan’s. The Senators are so determined to move on from Ryan that they are trying to force Erik Karlsson trade suitors to take the overpaid forward as well. At one point in time, $7.25MM per year for Ryan seemed like a fair deal. At 23 years old he was a 71-point player with the Anaheim Ducks and even after moving to Ottawa, Ryan started his tenure with three straight seasons in the 50-point range. However, the last two years have been very different. Ryan has only suited up for 62 games in each campaign and has looked like a different player on offense. At his best, he looks disinterested and lucky to be in the right place at the right time and at his worst he costs his team goals. Ryan has managed to register only 58 points combined over the past two years; he had 56 alone in 2015-16. Ryan may just need a change of scenery to jump start what used to be dynamic goal-scoring game, but the Senators don’t care about that. All he is to them is a waste of cap space and of owner Eugene Melnyk’s dwindling wealth. They want him gone at any cost.

Look out for Part III of this three-part series early next week…

 

Early Notes: Prospects, Moore, Matthews

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The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler has released his Top-50 NHL Prospects ranking (subscription required), listing the best drafted players under the age of 23. Wheeler’s list includes a short paragraph on every single one of the ranked players, and nearly 70 honorable mention players. There are some rankings that may surprise fans, but Wheeler explains that the biggest factor in his rankings is high-end skill, not necessarily proximity to the NHL or likelihood of getting there.

Number one on his list should come as no surprise, given that Rasmus Dahlin has been termed a “generational talent” by people all around the NHL over the past few months. While Wheeler isn’t comfortable handing out that exact term, he does rave about the Buffalo Sabres prospect and his potential to become the “best defenseman in the world.” That should bring a wave of smiles to Sabres fans, who have another prospect near the very top of the list as well.

  • Dominic Moore is hoping to play again in 2018-19, but he doesn’t think it will be with the Toronto Maple Leafs. After suiting up for 50 games with Toronto last season, Moore was essentially replaced by Tomas Plekanec at the trade deadline and is still waiting for an opportunity around the league. He told TSN 1050 radio that he’s just being patient, given that he’s had long offseason waits before. Moore has played nearly 900 regular season games in his NHL career, and had 12 points last season for the Maple Leafs.
  • Speaking of the Maple Leafs, Auston Matthews has begun talks with the team on a contract extension according to several reports including Luke Fox of Sportsnet. Matthews is heading into the final season of his entry-level contract and became eligible to sign an extension on July 1st. The star center is likely going to command a huge contract similar to the ones Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel have signed in past seasons, though the new Maple Leafs front office will have work to do making sure everything can fit into their salary cap. The team already handed out an $11MM cap hit to John Tavares and are still in negotiations with restricted free agent William Nylander on his next deal.

Are There More Moves Coming In Minnesota?

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On Wednesday, the Minnesota Wild did what many thought wasn’t possible when they locked up high-scoring forward Jason Zucker on a long-term deal without putting themselves in an impossible situation with the salary cap. The team somehow managed to re-sign two young stars, both Zucker and Mathew Dumba, to a combined $11.5MM cap hit as well as add free agents Greg Pateryn, Eric Fehr, Matt Hendricks, J.T. Brown, Matt Bartkowksi, and Andrew Hammond all while maintaining some semblance of cap space. The team is projected to enter the season with $1.77MM in cap space and a roster that added talent while only losing the likes of Daniel Winnik and Matt Cullen.

The question now is: is it enough? While it never hurts to return the majority of a roster from a playoff team, there is some question as to whether the Wild are keeping up in the Western Conference arms race. The team has been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in each of the past three seasons and has still won just four playoff series in its 18-year history. Fans are clamoring for more than just regular season success and Minnesota – and new GM Paul Fenton – have instead opted to return the same team so far in an off-season where major changes were expected. Although the new contracts for Zucker and Dumba were more than fair and the team addressed needs for more physicality on the blue line with Pateryn and another option in net with Hammond, as well as adding veteran depth pieces, there will be some who are critical of an otherwise quiet summer.

With so little cap space, the Wild may find it difficult to make many additions in-season as well. As the projected 23-man roster currently stands, Minnesota does not seem to be facing many holes and will get an injection of youth in the form of full seasons for Jordan Greenway and Nick Seeler. However, after getting a glimpse of other prospects like Luke Kunin, Louis Belpedio, and Carson Soucy last season, the team will undoubtedly want to avoid leaving them in the AHL all year. The trio all carry $925K cap hits that exceed the salaries of those on the roster they are most likely to supplant and the result will be even more cap space eaten up. Without moving out some salary, Minnesota will be left hoping their young talent can make a major impact as they will otherwise struggle to add veteran difference-makers over the course of the year.

While observers will always point to the massive contracts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise as the contracts that Minnesota could most benefit from moving (although Suter is still one of the most reliable defensemen in the league), the team has also entertained offers for Jonas Brodin and Nino Niederreiter in the past and could do so again. While Eric Staal has been a revelation for the team, they could also look to move the pending free agent if they get off to a slow start and can land a younger asset in exchange. At the end of the season, it could be that this same Wild lineup plus some free agent additions and young players is enough to reverse their postseason fortunes. However, if they fall short again or, even worse, miss the playoffs, the team will finally have to make some major changes. It’s possible that the team gets ahead of that possibility by making some moves this off-season instead.

Pittsburgh Penguins Re-Sign Tristan Jarry

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have their final restricted free agent wrapped up. The team has announced a two-year contract extension with backup goalie Tristan Jarry that carries a cap hit of only $675K: a $650K salary in 2018-19 and a $700K salary in 2019-20. On top of a friendly salary, the deal is also of a two-way nature this season before transitioning to a one-way contract next year.

It is unlikely that Pittsburgh GM Jim Rutherford could have done any better with this contract. The Penguins are perhaps in worse shape going up against the salary cap ceiling next season than any other team in the league. Pittsburgh currently has all but $1MM of their available cap space committed to a projected 23-man roster than looks unlikely to change much. The team already had to make a salary cap dump earlier this off-season, trading capable winger Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres in order to also offload underacheiving defenseman Matt Hunwick. There have been some questioning how the team could re-sign one of the most well-regarded goalie prospects in the pros and not have to make another similar move. Yet somehow Rutherford was able to convince Jarry to sign a) for close to a minimum salary, b) for multiple years, and c) on a two-way deal in the upcoming year. For a 23-year-old former second round pick who has incredible AHL numbers and had a solid first NHL season in 2017-18 behind an injury-prone starter, that seemed impossible. If Jarry again appears in 26 or so games and posts a .908 save percentage and 2.77 GAA or better in either of the next two years, this contract will be an amazing value for the Penguins.

The Penguins may still not be off the hook, however. Jarry’s two-way contract and waiver exemption will make it easy for the Penguins to move him up and down through the organization to relieve starter Matt Murray and slated backup Casey DeSmith when necessary – and recent history has shown that Murray is likely to miss time at some point. Yet, call-up’s for Jarry, as well as players like Zach Aston-Reese, Jimmy Hayes, and Zach Trotman, will eat away at what little cap space the Penguins have. It may be possible for them to get through the season as currently structured, but if Rutherford wants some more flexibility to maneuver his roster, don’t be surprised if another cap-relieving trade is still completed at some point. Until then though, Rutherford deserves some credit for locking up all of his restricted free agents and putting together a well-rounded roster given his uncomfortable cap scenario.

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part I

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. Here are the contracts that each team would most like to trade, from Anaheim to Dallas:

Anaheim Ducks: Corey Perry – three years, $25.875MM remaining

Corey Perry is no doubt a fan favorite in Anaheim. The big winger is a career Duck who has always played with an edge and a knack for finding the back of the net. However, the former 50-goal scorer has just 19 and 17 in the past two years respectively to the tune of $8.625MM per year. His lack of speed is apparent to even the most inexperienced hockey fan and he has drawn criticism from both GM Bob Murray and coach Randy Carlyle for the drop-off in his skating ability and production. The Ducks aren’t quite up against the salary cap just yet, but have three restricted free agents still unsigned and some big decisions on the horizon. Things are about to get tight in Anaheim and, as much as Ducks fans may not want to hear it, trading Perry away in the right deal would be the easiest solution.

Arizona Coyotes: None

The Coyotes trade for bad contracts, as the perennial salary cap floor dwellers rarely sign or acquire an expensive, long-term deal with an actual asset who may not be worth it.

Boston Bruins: David Backes – three years, $18MM remaining

On July 1st, 2016, it was leaked that Boston would sign David Backes to a one-year, $6MM contract and the Bruins were praised for bringing the veteran forward in as a hired gun. That celebration was short-lived, as the report was soon corrected to being a five-year deal with the same yearly salary and many questioned adding a 32-year-old with 727 games to his credit on a contract of that length and value. Two years later, the doubters have been proven right for the most part. Backes has not been bad in Boston (71 points in 131 games) and injuries have certainly affected his game, but it appears that his 50-point upside and Selke-caliber high-energy play are a thing of the past. Backes doesn’t have a defined role with the Bruins going forward and, as a team that doesn’t need the extra leadership and locker room presence and does need as much cap space as it can get, Boston would be better off if Backes were elsewhere.

Buffalo Sabres: Zach Bogosian – two years, $10.286MM remaining

The Sabres are finally trending in the right direction and have even used other teams’ bad salary cap situations to bring in some nice players this off-season. Buffalo themselves are in fine shape with the cap. However, there is still one contract that is bringing them down and that is Zach Bogosian. If Bogosian was fully healthy, his cap hit of just over $5.1MM would not be too bad. The 28-year-old defenseman has been a very capable two-way player in his career. Unfortunately, he just hasn’t been healthy enough during his time in Buffalo to be worth that salary. Bogosian played in only 18 games last year due to injury – and when he did play it showed that he wasn’t 100% – and has never topped 64 games in a season with the Sabres. The team has several young defenseman that could use as much ice time as possible and a beat up Bogosian isn’t helping anyone in Buffalo. Chances are the Sabres could still get a good return for the rearguard if he does show signs of being back at full-strength.

Calgary Flames: Troy Brouwer – two years, $9MM remaining

Calgary is in a really difficult salary cap situation with little space as is and five restricted free agent situations still to sort out. The team simply can afford to be paying Brouwer $4.5MM in each of the next two years for what he brings to the table. Many were skeptical of the Brouwer contract when signed and they were correct. The veteran power forward has only 25 and 22 points respectively in his first two years in Calgary, including just six goals last season, and at 32 years old he is unlikely to improve. Brouwer has even lost some of his trademark physical edge and recorded a career-low average time on ice last season when he was simply a non-factor in most games. With multiple players filing for salary arbitration, the Flames have been awarded an extra buyout period and it would not come as a shock to see Brouwer fall victim to it.

Carolina Hurricanes: Scott Darling – three years, $12.45MM remaining

The argument here is not that the Hurricanes should trade Darling because they need the cap space but that they should trade Darling because they need a better starting goaltender. Carolina is in fine salary cap shape, but so long as Darling is making more than $4MM per year, the team is likely to stick with him as the top guy. They have already committed to giving him another chance as the starter next season. Unfortunately, Darling’s first season in Raleigh hardly convinced anyone that this contract would work out. Moving from backup to starter, Darling seemed to crumble under the pressure even behind a stout defense, posting an .888 save percentage and 3.18 GAA as one of the worst keepers in the NHL. Perhaps his play will improve in year two, but the Hurricanes can’t be happy with the early results.

Chicago Blackhawks: Brent Seabrook – six years, $41.25MM remaining

When the Blackhawks made Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews the highest paid players in the league back in 2014, who would have figured that a different contract would be causing the team problems? Brent Seabrook’s eight-year, $55MM extension is already a nightmare for Chicago with the bulk of the contract still to come. Seabrook is a fine defenseman, but that doesn’t cut it when you’re paid like one of the top defenseman in the league, but your play is slipping and your team is finishing last in the division. This past season especially, it was clear that Seabrook has lost a step. Both his scoring and checking have diminished and he no longer resembles the player who was regularly posting 40+ points and garnering Norris Trophy votes. Seabrook will turn 34 later this season and it seems guaranteed that this contract only gets worse unless the team finds some way to trade him.

Colorado Avalanche: Erik Johnson – five years, $30MM remaining

The Avalanche have one of the lowest payrolls in the league with superstar Nathan MacKinnon locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. Their distance from the cap ceiling this season makes egregious contracts with just one year remaining – like streaky starter Semyon Varlamov and invisible forward Colin Wilson – somewhat tolerable. However, several major contributors are set to be restricted free agents after next season, Colorado will need to add another goaltender, and could still stand to add another difference-maker up front. Things could get tighter for the Avs moving forward and the one contract that could become a problem is Erik Johnson. Johnson eats up minutes and plays a defensively sound game, but the veteran defenseman is injury prone and does not create enough offense to warrant a $6MM cap hit. If the Avalanche were offered a reasonable deal for Johnson today they may not take it, but this time next year that same deal will be far more attractive.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Brandon Dubinsky – three years, $17.55MM remaining

The Blue Jackets pay Brandon Dubinsky like a second-line center and last season got fourth-line production from the veteran. Yes, Dubinsky has had his fair share of injuries, but a consistent 40+ point scorer dropping to just 16 points on the year was alarming. Columbus is no longer a small market team still figuring things out; the Jackets are a contender and like most contenders are close to the salary cap limit. The team can’t afford to have Dubinsky continuing to produce at this level while costing them $5.85MM against the cap. They hope that he bounces back this year, but even a slow start could have Columbus taking their best offer.

Dallas Stars: Martin Hanzal – two years, $9.5MM remaining

It may be too early to judge last summer’s Martin Hanzal contract, but if Dallas was offered a re-do right now, they would take it. Hanzal’s first season with the Stars was a disaster. Injuries limited him to just 38 games and even when active he contributed only ten points –  a 22-point pace over a full season – and somehow finished with the second-lowest plus/minus rating on the team. If Hanzal gets healthy, which is a big if, he could return to form next season, but if not the Stars could be quick to deal him away. The team desperately needs to bounce back from a devastating slump that cost them a playoff spot and have been rumored to be interested in big (expensive) names all off-season. That plan doesn’t mix well with a $4.75MM player who brought almost nothing to the team last year.

Keep an eye out for Part II of this three-part series coming soon…

 

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