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Salary Cap

Behind The Scenes Of The Jacob Trouba Arbitration Case

July 20, 2018 at 8:12 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 3 Comments

Arbitration cases rarely go through the hearing stage in the NHL, so for Jacob Trouba and the Winnipeg Jets to have reached this point in their negotiations – on the first scheduled day of hearing dates no less – is a major surprise. TSN’s Sara Orlesky reports that the two sides did in fact sit down for their hearing with the arbitrator and that a decision will be handed down in the next 48 hours. The Jets and Trouba have until that decision is made to agree to a deal on their own terms, likely a long-term extension, otherwise they will be stuck with a one-year deal and have to go through the process once again next summer.

So what exactly did it look like in the hearing today? Likely not what many would think. While the player and team are present during presentations to the arbitrator, neither team executives nor the player’s representation are in charge of arguing the case. The NHL Players’ Association handles the player side, while the teams use one of three lawyers to present their side: Dan Rabinowitz and Andre Nowakowski of Miller-Thomson in Toronto or Andre Lepage of BFC in Montreal. Each side makes their case based on briefs that they have previously filed to both the opposing side and the arbitrator, bringing in exhibits to support their arguments as well. The briefs contain the salary figures sought; the Jets reportedly filed at $4MM and Trouba at $7MM. It is a wide spread for the abitrator to consider and he may decide at or in between those figures.

What is the content of the arguments? Also somewhat contrary to what one may think, the two sides spend little time actually arguing the merits of the player, at least in absolute terms. The backbone of a salary arbitration case is the comparable players. For Trouba, the NHLPA would generally have comparable players that make $7MM or more to show that their filing number is fair, while the team reps will use comparable players around $4MM or less to prove their value. Each side will identify strengths or weaknesses to the player and find comparables that they can use to strengthen those points. The use of concrete search criteria to choose comparable players is key and often results in both sides tweaking their criteria ever so much that it includes only player who benefit their case. There are also rules regarding the players used: they must be current contracts, they must be recent contracts, and they must be contracts signed by a player who was or would have been an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent. Any deviation from this criteria would seriously injure the persuasiveness of the use of that comparable player. Other things that cannot be considered are off-ice behavior, even including something like Trouba’s previous contract holdout, or the team’s salary cap or roster depth status, which the Jets wish they could use in this case.

So who might be comparables in the Trouba case? The filing numbers for both sides suggest that there could be a wide range of possibilities. Using only the most basic metrics – games played and points-per-game – players like Justin Schultz, Colton Parayko, and Tyson Barrie lie right in the middle of the two values at $5.5MM and either side might struggle to use them effectively. Unfortunately for the NHLPA, those appear to be their best options. The case for any might be percentage of the salary cap rather than actual salary, given the major jump this off-season. Players like Torey Krug, Jared Spurgeon, Sami Vatanen and Dmitry Orlov would favor the Jets slightly more, but their home run option is likely a player like David Savard at $4.25MM.

After all the comparables have been presented, arguments have been made, and rebuttals and closing comments have been heard, the arbitrator will take his time to make the decision on just how much Trouba is worth based on everything he has witnessed. During that time, the two sides – who have also been enlightened to some extent – also come back together and talk contract terms. In recent years, hearings have more often than not led to independent agreements and not official decisions. Will it be the same for Jacob Trouba and the Winnipeg Jets? We will know soon enough.

Arbitration| NHL| NHLPA| Players| Schedule| Winnipeg Jets Colton Parayko| Dmitry Orlov| Jacob Trouba| Jared Spurgeon| Justin Schultz| Salary Cap

3 comments

The Case For A Tristan Jarry Offer Sheet

July 18, 2018 at 9:19 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 14 Comments

The art of the offer sheet is all but dead in the NHL. As The Athletic’s Craig Custance writes, there have only been eight offer sheets in the salary cap era, all but one have been matched, and none have been signed since 2013. It remains a shadowy threat for every GM looking to lock up his young restricted free agents, but at this point is more myth than reality. Custance even conducted a poll of nine GM’s that implied a feeling across the league that no offer sheets are coming this off-season. Even with attractive targets like the cap-strapped Detroit Red Wings’ Dylan Larkin, the Calgary Flames’ newly-acquired Noah Hanifin, and a key piece of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ young core, William Nylander, none of the GM’s could see a realistic spot where making an offer would be worth the effort as the team would always be able to match.

What about thinking outside the box and not looking at the top targets but at the team most unlikely to match? The Pittsburgh Penguins are not getting any sympathy from teams around the league. Winners of two of the last three Stanley Cups, a playoff team every year since 2007, and home to the best player in the league, the Penguins have had a great run and it’s unlikely to end any time soon. While many teams fear the backlash associated with poaching young players through offer sheets, Pittsburgh is perhaps the only team in the league that could come under attack and no one else would mind. The Penguins have also put themselves in a position that makes them easy prey. CapFriendly currently estimates that the team has just $745K in cap space heading into next season. Even if Jimmy Hayes fails to break camp or Zach Aston-Reese is sent down – the only foreseeable options, the Pens are still left with no more than $1.5MM in space and will need room to maneuver during the season.

Pittsburgh has just one restricted free agent left to re-sign: 23-year-old goaltender Tristan Jarry. Jarry has not been considered an offer sheet threat for a couple of reasons. The first is simply that he has yet to prove that he is a true NHL-caliber goalie. Jarry was a star at the junior level with the WHL’s Edmonton Oil Kings and was drafted in the second round by the Penguins in 2013. His first two pro seasons were spent entirely in the AHL, expect for one spot start in Pittsburgh, and he made the transition look easy, posting strong numbers through 78 combined games. Last season was a deviation from that smooth upward trajectory. The departure of Marc-Andre Fleury left Jarry as the primary backup to starter Matt Murray and the NHL level proved to be a little more difficult. Jarry had an up-and-down season with streaks of both good and bad play. He also struggled when he was returned to the AHL in favor of Casey DeSmith or briefly Antti Niemi. However, at the end of the season Jarry’s line of a .908 save percentage, 2.77 goals against average, and .609 quality start percentage in 26 NHL appearance was more than respectable for his first year in the bigs. Has he proven without a doubt that he can be an NHL regular or reliable backup? No, but the potential is there.

The other reason that Jarry would seem to be a strange offer sheet target is that he is waiver-exempt. Jarry is too young and inexperienced to have lost his waiver protection. This means that a team could hypothetically offer far above market value and multiple years and the Penguins could simply match it and stash Jarry in the minors without a second thought. The only problem is that Pittsburgh especially could not leave Jarry in the AHL for a whole season, nevertheless multiple. Since Murray became a fixture in net for the Penguins in 2015-16, he has made 111 appearances in three seasons with no more than 49 games in any year. In that same time, the Penguins have used six other goaltenders. Excluding Fleury, who was the starter in Murray’s first season and split time with him the following year, Jarry, DeSmith, Niemi, Mike Condon and Jeff Zatkoff have had to make 59 appearances over the past three years – more than half of Murray’s games played. Pittsburgh’s injury-prone starter clearly needs multiple quality options behind him until he can prove himself over a full season. DeSmith, who admittedly outplayed fellow rookie Jarry last season but in 12 fewer starts, may struggle to even backup Murray this season, nevertheless replace him for short stretches with untested minor league journeyman John Muse – the only other Penguins goalie – as the backup. The Penguins need a third-string goalie who costs as close the minimum against the cap as possible. If Jarry was to sign an offer sheet for even $1.5MM AAV, Pittsburgh would struggle to move that contract back and forth or keep him on the roster all year long. A team with ample cap space and a well-off ownership group could easily improve on that offer as well. Only moving out salary or injured reserve space would conceivably allow the Penguins to keep Jarry at that price or more.

At the end of the day, an offer with just the right amount of salary and term would be hard for the Penguins to match in their current state. Sure, they could simply sign a proven veteran free agent to a minimum deal and move on, but losing a promising young netminder would be a blow. On the other side of the table, it would only cost a team at most a third-round pick – the compensation for any deal with an AAV under $2.03MM – to land a young, high-ceiling goalie who is still waiver-exempt. If Jarry excels at the NHL level, they made a great deal; if he struggles, he can be sent to the AHL risk-free for further development and may still turn out be a great deal. The rest of the league would hardly mind seeing Pittsburgh and wheeler-dealer GM Jim Rutherford baffled by an offer sheet as well. It seems to be a win-win. Will it happen?

AHL| Injury| Jim Rutherford| Pittsburgh Penguins Antti Niemi| Casey DeSmith| Dylan Larkin| Jeff Zatkoff| Jimmy Hayes| Marc-Andre Fleury| Matt Murray (b. 1994)| Mike Condon| Noah Hanifin| Offer sheets| Salary Cap

14 comments

Central Notes: Maroon, Predators, Kruger

July 14, 2018 at 2:20 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

The St. Louis Blues had one of the best offseasons in the league when they managed to acquire Ryan O’Reilly, Tyler Bozak, David Perron with in the first few days of the start of free agency. The fact they were able to add those players without mortgaging their future prospects, make their offseason that much more successful. However, when the team signed winger Patrick Maroon to a one-year, $1.75MM deal, the team really looked at their offseason as a roaring success.

Maroon, who opted to give up both money and term so he could sign with his home-town Blues, could easily have gotten both elsewhere. Maroon, who made $2MM last year, has scored 44 goals in the past two years, making the 6-foot-3 physical forward an excellent, inexpensive addition. However, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Jeff Gordon writes don’t be surprised if Maroon gets an extension before the 2018-19 season ends. It’s likely the team will give him that deserved money and term when the team’s salary cap situation improves next season.

A lot of that will depend on how Maroon plays next season. The 30-year-old will likely find himself on the team’s third line, which could prove challenging to put up big numbers in. However, with his experience and ability to play along with top-line talent like he did alongside Connor McDavid in Edmonton, Maroon could easily find himself in a top-six role if injuries develop or lines don’t produce like the team hopes.

  • In a mailbag segment, the Tennessean’s Adam Vingan writes that he wonders whether the Nashville Predators insistence on not including no-movement clauses is what’s hurting the team from signing top free agents to their team. In fact, the scribe wonders whether the team can keep that policy up when it comes to re-signing defenseman Ryan Ellis. The problem with refusing to include no-movement clauses into contracts is that players will often take less money to stay with the Predators due to the lack of a state tax in Tennessee. However, the issue that many players have is that if the team trades them and the player then doesn’t receive the tax benefits. Only goaltender Pekka Rinne has a no-movement clause.
  • Mark Lazerus of The Chicago Sun-Times writes that despite the team lack of success when bringing back former Stanley Cup Champions to their lineup, the acquisition of Marcus Kruger is a minimal risk. The veteran forward, who was acquired in the Marian Hossa deal with the Arizona Coyotes, is in the last year of a three-year, $9.25MM deal in which he will only cost them $2.775MM against the cap. The forward struggled in Carolina last year, posting just six points in 48 games and played some time in the AHL as well. However, it turns out he played most of the season with a sports hernia injury. At just 28 years of age, the team should be thrilled if they can get some quality minutes out of him on the team’s fourth line.

 

AHL| Free Agency| Injury| Nashville Predators| Players| Prospects| St. Louis Blues Connor McDavid| David Perron| Marcus Kruger| Patrick Maroon| Pekka Rinne| Salary Cap

0 comments

Chicago Blackhawks, Arizona Coyotes Complete Seven-Player Trade

July 12, 2018 at 1:01 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 22 Comments

Marian Hossa won’t be playing in the NHL this season (or likely ever again), but his contract is still on the books for the Chicago Blackhawks. Though they can place it on long-term injured reserve to get some cap relief, doing so still complicates things for a team that is always pushing right against the cap ceiling. Because of this there has been plenty of speculation about the team moving out Hossa’s deal to a team closer to the salary cap floor, and that team is the Arizona Coyotes. The Blackhawks have sent Hossa, Vinnie Hinostroza, Jordan Oesterle and a 2019 third-round pick to the Coyotes in exchange for Marcus Kruger, Andrew Campbell, MacKenzie Entwistle, Jordan Maletta and a 2019 fifth-round pick.

This isn’t the first time the Coyotes have done something like this, as they previously took on Pavel Datsyuk’s contract after he returned to Russia, Chris Pronger’s deal after he was forced out of the game by injury, and still have Dave Bolland on the roster despite him never playing a game in Arizona.

Hossa, 39, has three years remaining on the 12-year, $63.3MM contract he signed in 2009, but is actually only owed $3MM in salary due to the front-loaded nature of the deal. That cap hit hurts for the Blackhawks, as Hossa isn’t able to play due to a skin condition that has worsened over his career and forced him into retirement after the 2016-17 season. For Arizona though it wouldn’t have much impact as the team isn’t expected to push all the way up to the cap ceiling this year. For the low cost of covering whatever insurance won’t of the $3MM (CapFriendly reports the deal is 80% insured), they will add assets that could pay off quickly as they try to rebuild the franchise and make it back to the playoffs.

Hinostroza and Oesterle are both useful players who showed last season that there may be more to their skill set than previously believed. The former is a sixth-round pick who has turned into a legitimate NHL offensive threat—Hinostroza scored 25 points in 50 games last season despite relatively limited minutes—and recently signed a two-year contract that will pay him a total of $3MM. He’ll still be a restricted free agent at the contract’s end, and should fit in nicely on a young Arizona roster that wants to play with speed and skill.

The latter, Oesterle, found new life in his career when he debuted in Chicago. Quickly ascending to the top pair alongside Duncan Keith, the undrafted defenseman ended up with 15 points in 55 games and excellent possession statistics. Whether he’ll find that kind of success in Arizona isn’t clear—Oesterle struggled to find playing time on the Edmonton Oilers through the first part of his career—but at the very worst he’s an extremely cheap depth option for the Coyotes. The 26-year old will earn the league minimum of $650K this season before hitting the open market as an unrestricted free agent next summer.

For Chicago, getting anything of value back in a trade like this is a positive. The team has cleared Hossa’s contract off the books while bringing back a familiar face in Kruger, who was part of the team’s last two Stanley Cup victories and had the best seasons of his career in a Blackhawks uniform. Dealing with injury last season he struggled mightily for the Carolina Hurricanes and was eventually sent to the minor leagues. The Blackhawks will hope that’s not the story this year, as he’s still carrying a cap hit of almost $3.1MM.

Maletta and Campbell will more than likely spend the entire 2018-19 season in the minor leagues and aren’t expected to make an impact at any point in the NHL, but Entwistle could be a different story. The 2017 third-round pick is a big lanky winger that played down in the Hamilton Bulldogs lineup this year but made quite an impact in the OHL playoffs. Once a very intriguing prospect the shine has come off him somewhat in the last year, but there’s no telling what he could become at this point. He’ll turn 19 in a few days and will play next season again in the OHL.

There will be obvious speculation surrounding the Blackhawks now that they’ve cleared some cap room, as the team now projects to have $9.3MM in free space for next season. While CapFriendly’s estimate of that number only includes nine forwards and six defensemen, there is obviously room for the team to add some bigger names over the next few months. The team has been linked in the past to potential scoring threats like Jeff Skinner and Max Pacioretty, but will still have to spend their assets carefully in any trade. The team can’t afford to get into any more long-term contracts for aging players if they want to compete down the road, but they do want to give the team a chance at the playoffs this year. You can bet that GM Stan Bowman is still working the phones trying to use that cap space on something, and there isn’t much left on the free agent market that could help the Blackhawks.

Chicago Blackhawks| Injury| Utah Mammoth Elliotte Friedman| Marian Hossa| Salary Cap| Vinnie Hinostroza

22 comments

Salary Cap Floor Should Not Pose Problems For Any Team In 2018-19

July 9, 2018 at 8:32 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 2 Comments

The purpose of the salary cap in the NHL is to maintain a sense of competitive balance across the league. That means both limiting how much a team can spend, the salary cap ceiling, but also ensuring that every team is competitive with a minimum expenditure, the salary cap floor. Some teams, generally those in smaller markets or undergoing rebuilds, tend to try to toe the line of the salary cap floor, paying as close to the minimum as possible for their roster. In years past, some teams have even struggled to hit that mark, taking on injured players or overpaying players in order to pass the floor. It’s unlikely that any of the 31 franchises will face that problem in 2018-19.

This season, with a corresponding jump in the salary cap ceiling, the floor moved to $58.8MM. With the bulk of unrestricted free agency accounted for, just three teams currently sit below that mark: the New Jersey Devils, New York Rangers, and Winnipeg Jets. However, both the Rangers and Jets can immediately be crossed off as a salary floor concern. The pair are perhaps the two teams with the most potential salary tied up in salary arbitration this off-season.

The Jets currently have the lowest projected payroll in the league, with a 16-man roster that accounts for approximately $52.7MM. However, Winnipeg’s list of restricted free agents who have filed for arbitration include Vezina candidate Connor Hellebuyck, defenseman Jacob Trouba, and forwards Adam Lowry, Chris Tanev, and Marko Dano, as well as defenseman Tucker Poolman who did not file. Those six players could easily combine for more than $20MM in combined salary when all is said and done, putting the Jets well clear of the floor and closer to the ceiling. Defenseman Josh Morrissey, who is not arbitration eligible also needs a new contract. Winnipeg is far from a floor concern.

In New York, the Rangers sit at $55.8MM in projected cap committed to 16 players, just $3MM shy of the floor. They also need to re-sign a majority of their young core, with forwards Kevin Hayes, Ryan Spooner, and Jimmy Vesey and defenseman Brady Skjei having filed for arbitration. The Rangers could pass the floor by extending just one of those players, nevertheless all four. New deals for those three forwards still leaves New York one or two shy of a full roster as well, meaning more salary will come into the fold via promotion or an additional acquisition.

As for the Devils, New Jersey is already close to the floor at a projected $56.4MM for 19 players. Forwards Blake Coleman and Stefan Noesen have filed for arbitration and the deals for both could be enough to push the Devils to where they need to be. Even if it doesn’t, the team will still need to sign non-arbitration eligible RFA’s Miles Wood and Steve Santini, whose deals should definitely be enough. New Jersey will likely be a team that hovers close to the floor next season; that didn’t stop them from making the playoffs in 2017-18, though.

Perhaps the only team who should be legitimately concerned about the salary cap floor next season in Ottawa. The Senators and owner Eugene Melnyk have made it no secret that they are trying to shed salary and come in as close to the minimum as possible. Right now, the team sits just $3MM above the floor at a projected $61.8MM roster for 20 players. However, that isn’t including the arbitration resolutions for both defenseman Cody Ceci and forward Mark Stone. Those two deals will put Ottawa well above the floor. Even if the team was to trade star defenseman Erik Karlsson, they should remain above the floor, especially with additional salaries likely to be added in the trade return. The one scenario in which Melnyk could succeed in dropping significant salary would be if both Karlsson and Bobby Ryan were to be traded away. The resulting $13.75MM loss in payable salary would more than offset the contracts for Stone and Ceci and likely the contracts of those players coming back as well, potentially dropping the team below $58.8MM. Yet, even in that case, the Senators’ efforts to fill out their roster after losing Karlsson and Ryan – either by promotion or acquisition – could easily be used to get back to that mark.

The salary cap floor was never intended to be used as a target for teams to hover above and spend as little as possible. The goal of the NHL is have each and every team be competitive, not simply trying to maximize profits. As such, the 2018-19 season has some parity promise as seemingly no team will struggle to get over the floor or have to use contracts for the old and injured to get there. For the first time in years, every team seems set to be competitive and comfortably over the minimum cap hit.

All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.com.

Arbitration| Free Agency| New Jersey Devils| New York Rangers| Ottawa Senators| RFA| Winnipeg Jets Adam Lowry| Bobby Ryan| Brady Skjei| Chris Tanev| Cody Ceci| Connor Hellebuyck| Erik Karlsson| Jacob Trouba| Jimmy Vesey| Kevin Hayes| Mark Stone| Marko Dano| Miles Wood| Salary Cap

2 comments

St. Louis Blues Expected To Sign Patrick Maroon

July 9, 2018 at 8:40 am CDT | by Zach Leach 18 Comments

Monday: Despite a source telling Rutherford that Maroon would sign in St. Louis, several teams remain in the mix for the power winger. His agent, Ben Hankinson, told Rutherford last night that the Blues are a “strong option” while Andy Strickland of Fox Sports reports that the Arizona Coyotes and New Jersey Devils had shown interest. Lou Korac of NHL.com though has heard that a one-year deal worth $1.7MM with the Blues has been agreed to, and the two sides will negotiate an extension in January.

Sunday: Just two days ago, The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford reported that the St. Louis Blues were interested in local product and one of the top unsigned free agents, Patrick Maroon. Now, Rutherford has confirmed his speculation, writing that the big winger will indeed return home to St. Louis and sign with the Blues. Rutherford hears from a source that this is a done deal that could be announced as early as this afternoon, but no details on the salary or term agreed upon have been revealed as of yet.

Maroon, 30, is coming off a career year in which he recorded a career-high 43 points in 74 games split between the Edmonton Oilers and New Jersey Devils. In 2016-17, he also recorded a career-high 27 goals and was one of the team’s top scorers in the postseason. If Rick Nash is indeed set on retirement, or at least taking time off from hockey, Maroon was the top available player on PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents list at No. 12.

Despite rumors that Maroon was interested in a return to either Edmonton or New Jersey, the St. Louis native emerged early as a target of the Blues. However, St. Louis has been busy this off-season, signing David Perron, Tyler Bozak, and Chad Johnson, not to mention several of their own restricted free agents, and then trading for Ryan O’Reilly. Accounting for their official moves to date, the Blues have little more than $5MM in cap space and still need to sign RFA defensemen Joel Edmundson and Jordan Schmaltz to new contracts. As such, many felt that the pairing of Maroon and St. Louis was no longer feasible. Yet, Rutherford reports that the Blues put the “full-court press” on Maroon in recent days, including meeting with him in person and having several members of the team call and convince him to join. It seems that GM Doug Armstrong and the Blues’ front office have a plan for working around St. Louis’ cap crunch.

Maroon is currently rehabbing from off-season back surgery, but is expected to be at full strength for the start of the season. A healthy Maroon is a major boost for St. Louis, even after adding several other impact pieces up front. The 6’3″, 225-lb. forward plays a physical game and is strong on the puck, something that the Blues lacked at times last year. He also adds significantly to their depth at left wing and has a finishing ability that should pair well with many play-makers on the Blues’ offense. While the salary terms will further clarify just how good of a signing this is, it stands to reason that Maroon – who made only $2MM per year on his last contract – is not earning so much as to make the Blues’ salary cap situation irreparable, meaning that he could be a great value for the team moving forward.

Doug Armstrong| Edmonton Oilers| New Jersey Devils| St. Louis Blues Chad Johnson| David Perron| Joel Edmundson| Jordan Schmaltz| Patrick Maroon| Salary Cap| Tyler Bozak

18 comments

The Salary Cap Implications Of A Shea Weber Early Retirement

July 8, 2018 at 10:45 am CDT | by Zach Leach 6 Comments

When Shea Weber signed a 14-year, $110MM offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers in 2012, everyone knew right away that it would end badly. Yes, Weber was 27 years old and one of the top defensemen in the league, but the contract was top-heavy and carried a $7.86MM cap hit through his age-40 season. The chances of him playing to a level matching that value over a full 14 years was very slim. The Flyers knew this and specifically structured it in a way that they hoped would scare the Nashville Predators and frugal GM David Poile away – it didn’t. The Predators had just watched Ryan Suter walk in free agency and couldn’t afford to let Weber leave as well. They matched the deal and held on to their superstar defenseman.

When Weber was then traded to the Montreal Canadiens for P.K. Subban in 2016, the risk in Weber’s contract increased exponentially. The league had since banned all similarly long-term contracts – setting a limit of seven years on the open market and eight years for an extension –  nevertheless the front-loaded, cap-circumventing type that Weber had signed. To combat teams continuing to front-load contracts, the NHL implemented salary cap recapture penalties. This system punishes teams for lengthening contracts with low-salary seasons in order to lower the cap hit during prime years by issuing a salary cap charge if the player retires prior to the end of the contract, thereby negating the years that lowered his cap hit. The calculation is the difference in total salary and total cap hit over the course of the contract with which the player played with the team, divided by the number of years remaining on the contract after retirement. In Weber’s case, the scenario looks like this:

Year           Team           Cap Hit           Salary           Difference
2012-13        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2013-14        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2014-15        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2015-16        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2016-17        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2017-18        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2018-19        MTL             $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2019-20       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2020-21       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2021-22       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2022-23       MTL*           $7.857MM        $3MM          -$4.857MM
2023-24       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2024-25       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2025-26       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM

So far over the course of Weber’s contract, both Nashville and Montreal have paid him far beyond what his cap hit would suggest. If Weber was to retire today, they would both be penalized. Nashville’s total penalty is $24.572MM, while Montreal’s is fluid. However, next season marks a drop for Weber below his cap number for the remaining eight years of his contract. Now, Weber is not going to retire this off-season. However, the chances that he retires early are very high. Earlier this week, it was reported that Weber had undergone a second off-season surgery and would likely be out until mid-season. Many expected when Weber was traded to Montreal that he still had many years left of strong play in him, but it appears that the deterioration of his body has already begun. Facing a decreasing salary for the remainder of his contract and concerns about his long-term health, it would be no surprise to see Weber retire in the next two years or so nevertheless by the end of the remaining eight years. By year, here is how the penalties would play out for both Nashville and Montreal:

If Weber retires before:      Penalty per year – NSH         Penalty per year – MTL
2019-20                                          $3.51MM                                              $918K
2020-21                                          $4.1MM                                                $762K
2021-22                                          $4.91MM                                              $543K
2022-23                                          $6.14MM                                             $215K
2023-24                                           $8.19MM                                             None
2024-25                                           $12.29MM                                           None
2025-26                                           $24.57MM                                           None

Obviously, the Predators have a lot to lose if Weber retires early. It is very unlikely that Weber, if he makes it that far, is likely to retire with one or even two years left on his contract. At that point, it is likely the Canadiens would just place him on long-term injured reserve to finish his career, as has become a growing trend in the NHL. However, if Weber is unable to get over the injuries that have plagued him in Montreal, could he call it quits within the next few years and stick Nashville with a $3.5-$5MM yearly penalty? Absolutely. It is a scary possibility for the Predators and a situation worth watching as Weber battles back from injury yet again next season and beyond.

All salary and cap figures are approximations. Data courtesy of CapFriendly.com.

CBA| David Poile| Free Agency| Injury| Montreal Canadiens| Nashville Predators| Penalties| Philadelphia Flyers| Retirement P.K. Subban| Ryan Suter| Salary Cap| Shea Weber

6 comments

San Jose Sharks Sign Dylan DeMelo To Two-Year Deal

July 7, 2018 at 4:48 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 1 Comment

5:25: The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz reports it’s actually a two-year deal. The Associated Press’ Stephen Whyno adds that it’s two years for $1.8MM with a $900K AAV.

4:48: The San Jose Sharks have signed defenseman Dylan DeMelo to a one-year, $900K deal to stay with the Sharks after the team did not offer him a qualifying offer two weeks ago, according to TVA’s Renaud Lavoie. It is a one-way deal.

“Dylan proved last season that he’s ready to be a full time NHL player and really blossomed towards the end of the year and into the playoffs,” said San Jose general manager Doug Wilson. “His skating ability and strong play in both ends make him a valuable part of our blue line. He’s extremely popular with his teammates and we’re excited to have him back with our team.”

The Sharks surprised a few when they opted not to offer a qualifying offer to the 25-year-old blueliner, making him an unrestricted free agent. He showed promise this past year when he played in a career-high 63 games and more than doubled his points total on the season when he tallied 20 assists. He was a regular in the team’s 10 playoff games as well. Regardless, his playing time actually dropped as he averaged just 14:12 of ATOI this season playing on the team’s third defensive pairing. He will likely battle Tim Heed for the final defensive spot in the rotation. However, The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz suggests this could be the end for Heed as the team may opt to trade him as he will be an unrestricted free agent in the 2019-20 season.

When San Jose chose not to offer DeMelo a qualifying offer, it was believed the team didn’t want to pay him the $735K that the offer was worth. By not qualifying him and making him an unrestricted free agent, the Sharks could sign him for less, but instead offered him more in the end. With the new contract in place, San Jose has less than $8MM in salary cap space to make more deals. The team still has one remaining restricted free agent in forward Chris Tierney.

San Jose Sharks Chris Tierney| Dylan DeMelo| Salary Cap| Tim Heed

1 comment

2018 Arbitration Tracker

July 5, 2018 at 3:42 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The deadline to file for player-elected salary arbitration comes in at 4pm today, while the next day brings the deadline for team-elected filings. To understand the entire arbitration process, make sure you read Mike Furlano’s Capology 101 posts from 2016 on the process (part 1, part 2). Filing for arbitration also removes the opportunity for other teams to sign a player to an offer sheet.

Below, you can find a complete list of unsigned arbitration eligible players broken down by team, and their decisions as they come in. Refresh this page often as new information will be added as it comes in.

Anaheim Ducks

F Kalle Kossila
F Kevin Roy
D Andy Welinski
D Brandon Montour – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration

Arizona Coyotes

(none)

Boston Bruins

(none)

Buffalo Sabres

F Daniel O’Regan

Calgary Flames

F Garnet Hathaway – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
F Mark Jankowski – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
F Elias Lindholm – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
D Brett Kulak – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
G David Rittich – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration

Carolina Hurricanes

F Greg McKegg
D Trevor van Riemsdyk – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration. Re-signed – two-years, $4.6MM

Chicago Blackhawks

(none)

Colorado Avalanche

F Matthew Nieto – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
D Patrik Nemeth – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration

Columbus Blue Jackets

D Ryan Murray

Dallas Stars

F Gemel Smith – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
F Devin Shore – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
F Mattias Janmark – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration

Detroit Red Wings

F Andreas Athanasiou – Re-signed, two-years $6MM
F Matt Puempel

Edmonton Oilers

F Anton Slepyshev – Will not file, playing in KHL.
F Ryan Strome

Florida Panthers

F Curtis Valk
D MacKenzie Weegar – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
D Alexander Petrovic

Los Angeles Kings

D Paul Ladue

Minnesota Wild

F Jason Zucker – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
D Mathew Dumba – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration

Montreal Canadiens

F Phillip Danault – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
F Joel Armia – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration

Nashville Predators

F Miikka Salomaki – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration

New Jersey Devils

F Stefan Noesen – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
F Blake Coleman – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
F Nick Lappin
F Kevin Rooney
F Christoph Bertschy – Will not file, playing in NLA.

New York Islanders

F Ross Johnston
F Brock Nelson – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
D Devon Toews

New York Rangers

F Jimmy Vesey – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
F Ryan Spooner – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
F Boo Nieves
F Kevin Hayes – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
D Brady Skjei – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
D John Gilmour
D Rob O’Gara

Ottawa Senators

F Mark Stone – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
D Cody Ceci – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration

Philadelphia Flyers

F Taylor Leier – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
F Tyrell Goulbourne
D Reece Willcox
G Alex Lyon – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration. Re-signed, two years, $1.5MM.

Pittsburgh Penguins

F Teddy Blueger
F Thomas DiPauli
D Jamie Oleksiak – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
D Ethan Prow
D Andrey Pedan – Will not file, playing in KHL.

San Jose Sharks

F Chris Tierney – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration

St. Louis Blues

F Beau Bennett
F Dmitrij Jaskin – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration. Signed one-year, $1.1MM after deadline.
F Oskar Sundqvist – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration. Signed one-year, $700K after deadline.
D Joel Edmundson – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration.
D Jordan Schmaltz
D Petteri Lindbohm
G Jordan Binnington

Tampa Bay Lightning

F Cedric Paquette Re-signed one-year, $1MM contract.

Toronto Maple Leafs

F Miro Aaltonen – Will not file, playing in KHL.

Vancouver Canucks

D Troy Stecher – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration

Vegas Golden Knights

F Teemu Pulkkinen
F Tomas Nosek – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
F William Karlsson – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
D Colin Miller – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
D Philip Holm
G Oscar Dansk

Washington Capitals

F Tom Wilson
F Liam O’Brien – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration

Winnipeg Jets

F Brandon Tanev – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
F Adam Lowry – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
F J.C. Lipon
F Nicolas Kerdiles
F Marko Dano – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
D Tucker Poolman
D Jacob Trouba – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration
G Connor Hellebuyck – Filed for player-elected salary arbitration

Arbitration| Newsstand| RFA Salary Cap

0 comments

Kings To Sign Drew Doughty To Eight-Year Extension

July 1, 2018 at 1:25 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 7 Comments

July 1: The Kings have officially announced the contract, signing Doughty to an eight-year, $88MM contract extension. The deal will kick in for the 2018-19 season, and make Doughty the highest-paid defenseman in the league, barring an even bigger extension being signed before then.

June 29: A major impending free agent is about to be off the market, but it’s not a member of the 2018 class, but the 2019 class. When July 1st arrives and players with expiring contracts after next season are first eligible to sign extensions, Los Angeles defenseman Drew Doughty is expected to re-sign with the Kings. TSN Insider Pierre LeBrun reports that the two sides put the finishing touches on a max eight-year extension today that will be officially signed on Sunday. No financial terms have been disclosed.

The Kings are undoubtedly one of the teams that benefited the most from the massive salary cap spike this off-season. That added flexibility allowed L.A. to add much-needed scoring in the form of Ilya Kovalchuk without losing the breathing room needed to retain Doughty. For a time, many speculated that Doughty would test free agency next summer, but over the past few months the Norris Trophy-winner has made it clear that he would prefer to stay with the Kings. The team’s acquisition of Kovalchuk and continued search for talent this off-season was likely the very last boost of confidence that Doughty needed to re-up in L.A.

Doughty now joins fellow defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson of the Arizona Coyotes and center Logan Couture of the San Jose Sharks as potential superstar free agents who will instead sign on with their current teams as soon as possible. Doughty is the biggest name so far and, if previous reports prove true, will soon be the highest paid defenseman in hockey. Doughty has gone on the record as saying that he would like to be paid more than Nashville Predators blue liner P.K. Subban, who is currently the highest-paid defenseman in the league at $9MM AAV. LeBrun’s TSN colleague Darren Dreger is among many speculating that deal will land in the realm of $11MM per year over the eight years, which would make him the new top dog among defenders and the second-highest paid player in the league – at least until Erik Karlsson signs his next contract.

Free Agency| Los Angeles Kings| Nashville Predators| Newsstand| San Jose Sharks| Utah Mammoth Drew Doughty| Erik Karlsson| Ilya Kovalchuk| Logan Couture| Oliver Ekman-Larsson| P.K. Subban| Salary Cap

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