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Restricted 2017: Checking In On The Upcoming RFA Class

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As the NHL continues to skew towards younger and younger talent with players like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews making an immediate impact, the restricted free agent classes become more and more important.

Last year we saw an impressive group, headlined by the dynamic duo in Calgary Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, Tampa’s new sniper Nikita Kucherov and a handful of excellent defensemen like Hampus Lindholm and Jacob Trouba.

While teams have started to lock up their young talent before they even become restricted free agents – like Aaron Ekblad in Florida who signed a $60MM deal just months after his 20th birthday – this year looks like it will be one of the biggest and most expensive RFA crops ever. Glen Miller took a look back in September at this year’s crop in an excellent series of articles that really should be consumed before reading any further (parts one, two, three, four, five and six), but let’s now check in on the group and how they’re fairing this season. Well list just a few of the highlights, as the group is almost endless.

Leon Draisaitl (EDM) – 47 GP / 17 G / 23 A / 40 P

You can’t start this list without mentioning Draisaitl, who will head to restricted free agency for the first time after what looks like a 30+ goal, 70+ point season. Skating alongside McDavid for much of the year, Draisaitl is currently tied for 18th in league scoring and leads the RFA group. He won’t turn 22 until after the 2017-18 season begins, and is an important player for the Edmonton Oilers to lock up long term. Expect the team to shell out big money to buy into a few free agent years this summer.

Mikael Granlund (MIN) – 44 GP / 10 G / 27 A / 37 P

Often forgotten about across much of the league because of the relative gag-order on any Minnesota Wild news, Granlund is having an exceptional season. Playing almost 20 minutes a night and on pace to shatter his previous career high in points, the Finnish forward will get a huge deal this summer. Unlike Draisaitl, Granlund is 24 and has already been through the RFA process before, signing a two-year $6MM deal before last season. With three solid seasons and now one spectacular one, he’ll likely earn something closer to $7MM (AAV) if signed long-term.

Justin Schultz (PIT) – 44 GP / 7 G / 23 A / 30 P

Schultz is such an interesting case, because of the breakout he’s experiencing this year. With Kris Letang on the shelf for much of the season, Schultz has blossomed in Pittsburgh to the player most teams expected when he signed out of college. He’s 26 now, and will turn 27 just days after free agency opens, but will likely fetch a hefty price as an RFA. After not even receiving a qualifying offer last year, has he done enough to prove that a big-money deal is worth it?

Robin Lehner (BUF) – 29 GP / .920 SV% / 2.54 GAA

The best RFA goaltender this year is one who just blew up at his coach after getting pulled and has generally been inconsistent for the Sabres since they traded a first-round pick for him in 2015. He has all the talent in the world to be a number one goaltender in this league, but with Buffalo floundering again near the bottom of the league will he be able to put it all together and lead them back to the playoffs? He’s 25-years old now and has 136 games under his belt with an above-average .916 save percentage. If Buffalo can ice any healthy defensemen, perhaps they’d be able to finish in the top half of the league for a change.

The Disastrous Duty Of Drafting Defensemen

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In professional sports, there is an oft-quoted saying that suggests that “defense wins championships”. It’s no surprise that in the NHL, the best of the best are getting extensions like Aaron Ekblad (8 years, $60MM) and Victor Hedman (8 years, $63MM). They’re valuable assets in a league that doesn’t have enough capable defenders.

Back in the summer, we looked at the increasing value of right-handed defensemen, with players like Jason Demers (5 years, $22.5MM), Ben Lovejoy (3 years $8MM) and Roman Polak (1 year, $2.25MM) all getting contracts that seemed expensive for their on-ice value.

Perhaps it’s not just the right-handed ones though. Prices for defensemen are skyrocketing on both the open market and in trade negotiations, and it’s because even though teams want to draft and develop their own blueliners, it’s incredibly difficult to do so.

In the 2007 entry draft, there were 60 defensemen selected and only 13 of them have played more than 200 NHL games. Even that group includes players like Keaton Ellerby, Ian Cole and Yannick Weber who would not inspire much confidence at the top of anyone’s depth chart (apologies to Cole, who is having a fine season in Pittsburgh).

In comparison this is actually a fairly good draft, as in 2006 just six out of the 65 defensemen chose have crossed that 200 games threshold. While 2006 is perhaps the most stark example, as Erik Johnson (drafted first overall) is the only high-end defenseman in the entire draft – his competition for that title are the likes of Andrew MacDonald, Jeff Petry and Mike Weber.

Drafting defensemen is even more of a crap shoot, as often they develop later than forwards and rely more on experience and positioning than raw skill. In 2006, eight were taken in the first round and only Johnson is still in the NHL. Ty Wishart, Bobby Sanguinetti and Chris Summers highlight the rest of the round.

This past draft nine defenders were taken in the first round, with Jakob Chychrun in Arizona and a three-game taste from Montreal’s Mikhail Sergachev being the only forays into the NHL so far. Obviously, it’s much too early to tell whether any of these will be long-term options, but the past seems to say that many won’t.

For teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs or Edmonton Oilers, whose fan bases and media members have said for years to ’just draft a defenseman’, it’s much more difficult than it seems. Even using your first round pick on a blueliner does not guarantee success, or even an NHL player. It’s hard to find those elite defensemen, even if you sink your whole draft into them.

With only a few successful ones coming out each year, it’s no wonder players like Jacob Trouba and Cam Fowler have huge price tags on their heads. Their teams may never get a chance at a player of their caliber again (although, Anaheim seems to buck this trend and have success with a high number of defensive draft picks).

Dater’s Latest: Trades, Duchene, Landeskog

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In the most recent edition of “Avalanche Talk with Adrian Dater,” a podcast appearing on 5280 Sports Network, longtime Colorado Avalanche scribe Adrian Dater offers his thoughts on the team’s dreadful season and what he would do if he was in the GM’s chair to fix the issues. The whole podcast is well worth a listen but here are a few of the highlights.

  • On the cause of the team’s struggles, Dater points to the young core receiving lucrative long-term deals before helping to lead the team to any real on-ice success as a contributing factor. He suggests that without the added motivation of earning a big contract, complacency set in leading to some of the Avalanche’s issues. Matt Duchene inked his five-year, $30MM extension prior to the 2013-14 campaign and on the heels of a nearly point-per-game performance. Later that summer, Gabriel Landeskog was awarded a seven-year, $39MM deal. Midway through the 2013-14 season Colorado also extended goalie Semyon Varlamov with a five-year, $29.5MM pact. The other members of the team’s core, Erik Johnson, Nathan MacKinnon and Tyson Barrie, have all agreed to new deals since the start of the 2015-16 season. The Avalanche have made the playoffs just once in the last seven seasons and were eliminated in the first round in 2014, perhaps lending further validity to Dater’s hypothesis.
  • In terms of fixing the team, Dater isolated the blue line corps and suggested the club should pursue two young top-four defensemen while utilizing their 2017 first-round pick and one of Landeskog or Duchene as bait. As it stands now, the Avalanche own the worst record in the league at 12 – 22 – 4. Should that remain the case at the conclusion of the season, the Avalanche would be guaranteed one of the top two selections in June’s drat. Nonetheless, Dater opines that this crop of draft-eligible prospects lacks the flair of past years and Colorado would be better suited to cash the pick into a top-flight young blue liner. He also argues that Duchene likely has more value on the trade market than Landeskog and would also be able to return the Avalanche another solid defender. Among the names Dater mentions as the type of players the team should target are Jacob Trouba of Winnipeg and Colton Parayko of St. Louis. To be clear, Dater wasn’t reporting on any specific rumor he has heard or even suggesting the defensemen are in play in any trade discussions; he was simply identifying Trouba and Parayko as the type of players the team needs to improve their overall defensive play.
  • Dater also mentions that Landeskog, the team’s captain, is playing through an undisclosed lower-body injury and that might be a factor in the player’s offensive struggles this season. In 25 appearances, the Swedish winger has just six goals and 11 points, numbers far below the normal expectations of a top-six forward. His track record also suggest better production as he has tallied 20 or more goals in each of the three previous campaigns. Landeskog missed 10 games earlier this season with a lower-body injury and it’s possible the issues Dater alluded to are related to the prior problem. His so-far underwhelming production is further evidence that he wouldn’t have as much value in a potential trade as Duchene.

Friedman’s Latest: Fleury, Trouba, Trade Market

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Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was on Sportsnet 590 in Toronto recently to provide some updates on a few players and the trade market in general.  Here are some of the highlights; transcription courtesy of FanRag’s Chris Nichols.

Marc-Andre Fleury (Penguins)

Friedman, like many others, expects that Fleury’s days with Pittsburgh are close to being over.  The question at this point is whether they’ll make an in-season move or keep him around for what they expect to be another lengthy postseason run.  If they were to keep Fleury, they’d have the luxury of having two starting goaltenders which could come in handy in case of injury, which is how Murray wound up with the number one job in the playoffs.

He also points out Fleury’s 12-team no trade clause as a potential obstacle.  However, Friedman believes that when the time comes to make a trade that they’ll check in with the goaltender to make sure he’s happy with his eventual new destination.  This is his 13th career season, all with the Penguins after being the first overall pick in 2003 so they’ll want to try to do right by their longest-tenured player.

One other potential obstacle that Friedman didn’t mention is Fleury’s struggles so far this season.  He has not adapted particularly well to not being the full-fledged starter and has a GAA of 3.25 and a SV% of .905, both well below league average.  For teams that might be looking at him as an in-season option, those numbers certainly won’t help his value and there are other goaltenders already currently available.

Jacob Trouba (Jets)

Friedman noted that Toronto is among the teams that have kept tabs on Winnipeg blueliner Jacob Trouba.  However, the Leafs, like several other Canadian teams, have some doubts regarding Trouba’s willingness to play in a Canadian market long-term.

Trouba rescinded his trade request when he signed a two year, $6MM bridge deal back in early November.  However, many still think he will be dealt by the time that the contract expires.  The Jets have a pair of big money, higher end blueliners on the right side in Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers and Trouba has stated his preference is to play on his natural side.

Interestingly enough, Friedman floated out a suggestion that a deal involving Trouba and Fleury could make sense for both sides with the Penguins needing some help on the back end while the Jets’ goaltending duo of youngsters Connor Hellebuyck and Michael Hutchinson have struggled with consistency throughout the season.

Trade Market

Friedman doubled down on his comments earlier this week about the trade market being paralyzed.  He noted that teams are still talking regularly but one GM told him that no one seems ready to do anything yet.  With so many teams having limited cap space, it’s likely that the bulk of the notable trades this season will come closer to the trade deadline.

Early Returns On Summer Blockbusters

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Typically, free agency items dominate hockey headlines in the latter days of June. However, the events of June 29th changed that dynamic in the 2016 offseason. First, the marquee name available in free agency, Steven Stamkos, agreed to remain with the Tampa Bay Lightning, inking an eight-year extension with the team and effectively ruining the offseason plans of several other NHL clubs. Second, a pair of rare, player-for-player blockbuster trades were completed, shocking all who follow and cover the league.

Desperately searching to upgrade the team’s blue line, Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli agreed to ship top-line left wing Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson. Not long after that deal was announced, the Nashville Predators dealt team captain and four-time Norris Trophy finalist Shea Weber to Montreal for the electric P.K. Subban.

While it’s too early to make any definitive judgments as to which teams may have come out ahead in their respective exchanges, it is possible to analyze the early returns and see how much each club has benefited from the transactions.

Montreal –  While there is no question P.K. Subban is a supremely skilled player, as the 2015-16 season played out it appeared as if head coach Michel Therrien and GM Marc Bergevin had grown weary of the defender’s high-risk, high-reward playing style. In Weber they get a veteran blue liner who boasts the league’s hardest shot and one who has long been a stalwart for Team Canada in numerous international events. Weber has also had a productive start to his Habs career, with eight goals and 18 points through 27 games.

Nashville – The team may have lost the longtime face of their franchise but they did add a dynamic talent who is four years Weber’s junior and has perhaps a more favorable contractual situation. While Subban’s cap hit is more than $1M higher annually through the 2021-22 campaign, his contract expires four years earlier than Weber’s and does not come with the likelihood of a cap recapture penalty. Subban is slowly growing more comfortable in his new home and has produced nearly identical numbers to his counterpart, tallying seven goals and 17 points through 26 contests.

Verdict – With Montreal currently sitting in the top spot in the Eastern Conference it’s hard to argue the trade hasn’t paid off exactly as Bergevin hoped. Weber plays a more conservative style of hockey which Therrien clearly prefers and he is still an impact player at both ends of the ice. On the flip side Subban gives the Nashville market a huge personality and a bankable star. He has quickly endeared himself to the Predators fans off the ice and is still producing on the ice. This deal has worked out for both clubs about as well as could have been hoped.

New Jersey – After ranking dead last in goals scored in 2015-16, the Devils desperately needed an infusion of skill and that’s exactly what they got in Hall. In 19 games this season, Hall is averaging better than a point-per-game for his new team and gives the Devils a legitimate, goal-scoring threat they haven’t had since Zach Parise resided in Jersey.

Edmonton – Larsson doesn’t contribute much in the offensive end of the ice – just six points in 30 contests this season – but has at least provided steady play on the back end for Edmonton. Chiarelli perhaps could have pursued a more dynamic player to address his team’s dire need on the blue line but Larsson came with the cost-certainty that RFA options like Mathew Dumba and Jacob Trouba did not. The Oilers will soon have to consider extensions for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl – neither of which will come cheap – and getting Larsson in the midst of a long-term deal with a manageable cap hit carries additional value.

Verdict – Hall is clearly the better and more valuable player, both today and into the future. But to Chiarelli’s credit, he knew his team needed to improve on the back end and was willing to lose the trade to make his team better. It’s probable the Oilers GM simply was not content maintaining the status quo and made the best deal available to upgrade the blue line. With the Oilers at the top of the Pacific Division standings, Chiarelli is likely pleased with how this deal has worked out for Edmonton.

How Will The Expansion Draft Impact Canadian Teams?

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Continuing our look at different expansion draft angles,  CBC’s Amy Cleveland examines how the draft will affect the seven teams in Canada. Laying out the rules for the draft, Cleveland looks further and prognosticates who she sees as “potentially protected” versus those players who would be “intriguing” in being exposed. She further writes that all seven Canadian teams will be able to protect the bulk of their important players. The Flames sit prettiest without any non-movement clauses in contracts while the Leafs and Senators have only one player with an NMC (Nathan Horton, and Dion Phaneuf respectively).

Below are Cleveland’s picks for each team. Going to CBC’s page with the story includes in depth reasoning behind each of Cleveland’s choices.

Calgary Flames
NMC protected players: None.

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

Edmonton Oilers
NMC protected players: Milan Lucic (F), Andrej Sekera (D), Cam Talbot (G)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

Montreal Canadiens
NMC protected players: Carey Price (G), Jeff Petry (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed: 

Ottawa Senators
NMC protected players: Dion Phaneuf (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed: 

Toronto Maple Leafs
NMC protected players: Nathan Horton (F)

Potentially protected: 

Vancouver Canucks
NMC protected players: Loui Eriksson (F), Daniel Sedin (F), Henrik Sedin (F)

Potentially protected: 

​Intriguing exposed: 

Winnipeg Jets
NMC protected players: Dustin Byfuglien (D), Toby Enstrom (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

 

Snapshots: Duchene, Trouba, Waiver Activity

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Winnipeg Jets defenseman Jacob Trouba made his presence felt in his first game of the season. It wasn’t on the scoresheet, however. Just ask Matt Duchene.

Trouba caught Duchene with a high hit to the head, causing the speedy Avalanche center to leave the game. Adrian Dater reported that the NHL’s concussion spotters may have pulled Duchene from the game. Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said post-game that he has no update on his star’s condition.

The two players have been linked before, with some speculation the Avalanche offered Duchene up in a trade for Trouba. With Trouba signing a two-year contract with the Jets before withdrawing his trade request and Duchene leading the Avalanche in scoring, it seems unlikely that anything will come to fruition soon.

  • The Florida Panthers have claimed forward Seth Griffith on waivers from the Toronto Maple Leafs, according to Chris Johnston. The Leafs had previously claimed Griffith on waivers from the Bruins just last month, but he was held off the scoresheet in just three games in blue and white. The Leafs needed to make a move with Matt Hunwick returning from IR and Josh Leivo coming back from a conditioning stint. As Johnston points out, the young forward will have a much better chance to make an impact in Florida, where the Panthers are dealing with a handful of injuries. Griffith won’t have to wait long to face his former team; the Panthers are in Toronto this Thursday.
  • Defenseman Nicklas Grossmann is on unconditional waivers for the purpose of mutually terminating his contract with the Calgary Flames. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman suggests Grossmann may have an offer to play overseas. He’s been in and out of the Flames lineup after a successful PTO. Shortly after the signing, Christian Roatis of Flames Nation broke down why the Flames signed the aging defenseman to a one-year, league-minimum contract: to boost their LTIR savings on the injured Ladislav Smid.
  • Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Jakub Nakladal cleared waivers and has been assigned to the Charlotte Checkers of the AHL. The Hurricanes have called up Matt Tennyson to take his place on the roster. Nakladal is -4 in three games this season; Tennyson has 7 points in 9 AHL games so far.  Also clearing waivers was Florida’s Shane Harper who was assigned to Springfield of the AHL.  Harper has two goals and an assist in 14 games with the Panthers this season.

Jacob Trouba Set To Make 2016-17 Season Debut

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According to head coach Paul Maurice, recently re-signed defenseman Jacob Trouba will make his 2016-17 season debut tonight against Colorado, tweets Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun. The Jets and the RFA blue liner settled on a two-year, bridge pact on Monday that comes with an AAV of $3MM. Trouba had asked for a trade out of Winnipeg last season but has since rescinded that request.

Of course one of the issues Trouba talked about during the stalemate was the fact he wanted to play on his natural, right side but with Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers on the depth chart above him, those opportunities had been few and far between with the Jets. Maurice did not state whether Trouba would see action on the right side or with whom he would play, saying only: “We’re going to send him out there with a right-handed stick.”

The coach also did not indicate who would be coming out of the lineup tonight to make room for Trouba though Wiebe suggested Paul Postma was the likeliest option. Postma has appeared in 12 games so far this season and has two points for the Jets.

Despite inking a new deal to remain in Winnipeg and pulling back his trade request, rumors linger that the team could still move him. Now under contract at what many might feel is a bargain price, teams interested in Trouba might be more inclined to meet the high asking price the Jets have placed on the young blue liner. During the 2011-12 campaign, Kyle Turris, who shares the same agent as Trouba, signed a short-term deal with the Coyotes only to be dealt days later to Ottawa. It’s possible the Jets could look to do the same with Trouba.

 

West Notes: Anisimov, Hendricks, Jets

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At Chicago Blackhawks practice today there were some notable absences, including one Artem Anisimov. Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune reports that Anisimov is questionable for the next two games with an undisclosed injury he suffered on Wednesday night. When pressed, head coach Joel Quenneville would not comment on whether it was the concussion spotters who removed the forward.

If Anisimov isn’t able to go, Nick Schmaltz or Marcus Kruger would move up to the second line, while Vincent Hinostroza will figure back into the lineup on Friday regardless of the health of the young center. Hinostroza will play wing however, meaning someone would have to move to the middle or come out of the lineup.

  • In Edmonton, head coach Todd McLellan gives an update on injured forward Matt Hendricks. Though he skated with the team today, it was more of a “rehab skate”. McLellan admits that Hendricks is “probably the closest” out of the group of injured players, but still not ready to get back into the lineup.  Edmonton currently has a number of players on injured reserve waiting to return to the ice.
  • Though he’s now signed and practicing with the team, Winnipeg Jets’ defenceman Jacob Trouba will not play tonight. The young blueliner stayed late at practice to get some extra work, and try to get himself into game shape for the rest of the season. His contract holdout ended on Monday.
  • Connor Hellebuyck will start again tonight for the Jets, his fourth game in a row, according to Ken Weibe of the Winnipeg Sun. 2-2 in those four games, Hellebuyck is starting to stake his claim as the Jets No. 1 goaltender. With the struggles of Michael Hutchinson to start the year, and the demotion of Ondrej Pavelec, the door is open for Hellebuyck to run with the job and establish himself as a starter in the NHL at just 23 years of age.

LeBrun’s Latest: Budaj, Trouba, Hanzal

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When the Los Angeles Kings lost not just Jonathan Quick but Jeff Zatkoff as well in the span of a few days, panic immediately set in for a franchise known for its excellent goaltending over the years. Even with Peter Budaj, an experienced NHL netminder coming in to start, the team was looking everywhere to find some help in net.  That might have come to an end, says Pierre LeBrun in his latest column, as Budaj has performed extremely well and Zatkoff is back from injury. The team has stopped looking for help and is at least somewhat comfortable with the Budaj/Zatkoff tandem for now.

Budaj, the AHL goalie of the year in 2015-16, has posted a .912 save percentage and 2.06 GAA in ten games, including a shutout of the Calgary Flames on Saturday. The former Colorado and Montreal netminder has a ton of NHL experience over the years, and at 34 is still playing well enough to help the Kings. Zatkoff will likely figure in a bit more as the season stretches on, though he does have much less experience.

  • Even though Jacob Trouba has signed on for two years and said that he’s ’committed’ to the Winnipeg Jets, doesn’t sway LeBrun from thinking he’ll eventually be dealt. Though head coach Paul Maurice has said he’ll use Trouba in a variety of situations in order to keep him involved, the conviction that led to his holdout can’t possibly have all dissipated at this point. Trouba still wants to be a top pairing blueliner on the right side, something that simply won’t happen in Winnipeg, at least not right now.
  • It’s an open competition in Colorado now, as the net will be shared between Semyon Varlamov and Calvin Pickard. Though Varlamov came into the season as the clear No. 1, the younger Pickard has played extremely well and forced himself into the conversation. A .946 save percentage even if it is just a few games. With the Avalanche going after a playoff spot this year, they can’t afford to wait for Varlamov’s game to come around.
  • When you turn your calendar over to February in a few months, make sure you make a note to watch for Martin Hanzal rumors. LeBrun feels as though the Coyotes center – who’s injured at the moment – is an easy pick for a deadline deal. An unrestricted free agent at season’s end, he’s always had the talent to change a game. Health has always been a factor for Hanzal though, who just can’t seem to stick in a lineup for a full year. LeBrun believes that the Coyotes would need a young player, and not just picks, in return.

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