Early Returns On Summer Blockbusters

Typically, free agency items dominate hockey headlines in the latter days of June. However, the events of June 29th changed that dynamic in the 2016 offseason. First, the marquee name available in free agency, Steven Stamkos, agreed to remain with the Tampa Bay Lightning, inking an eight-year extension with the team and effectively ruining the offseason plans of several other NHL clubs. Second, a pair of rare, player-for-player blockbuster trades were completed, shocking all who follow and cover the league.

Desperately searching to upgrade the team’s blue line, Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli agreed to ship top-line left wing Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson. Not long after that deal was announced, the Nashville Predators dealt team captain and four-time Norris Trophy finalist Shea Weber to Montreal for the electric P.K. Subban.

While it’s too early to make any definitive judgments as to which teams may have come out ahead in their respective exchanges, it is possible to analyze the early returns and see how much each club has benefited from the transactions.

Montreal –  While there is no question P.K. Subban is a supremely skilled player, as the 2015-16 season played out it appeared as if head coach Michel Therrien and GM Marc Bergevin had grown weary of the defender’s high-risk, high-reward playing style. In Weber they get a veteran blue liner who boasts the league’s hardest shot and one who has long been a stalwart for Team Canada in numerous international events. Weber has also had a productive start to his Habs career, with eight goals and 18 points through 27 games.

Nashville – The team may have lost the longtime face of their franchise but they did add a dynamic talent who is four years Weber’s junior and has perhaps a more favorable contractual situation. While Subban’s cap hit is more than $1M higher annually through the 2021-22 campaign, his contract expires four years earlier than Weber’s and does not come with the likelihood of a cap recapture penalty. Subban is slowly growing more comfortable in his new home and has produced nearly identical numbers to his counterpart, tallying seven goals and 17 points through 26 contests.

Verdict – With Montreal currently sitting in the top spot in the Eastern Conference it’s hard to argue the trade hasn’t paid off exactly as Bergevin hoped. Weber plays a more conservative style of hockey which Therrien clearly prefers and he is still an impact player at both ends of the ice. On the flip side Subban gives the Nashville market a huge personality and a bankable star. He has quickly endeared himself to the Predators fans off the ice and is still producing on the ice. This deal has worked out for both clubs about as well as could have been hoped.

New Jersey – After ranking dead last in goals scored in 2015-16, the Devils desperately needed an infusion of skill and that’s exactly what they got in Hall. In 19 games this season, Hall is averaging better than a point-per-game for his new team and gives the Devils a legitimate, goal-scoring threat they haven’t had since Zach Parise resided in Jersey.

Edmonton – Larsson doesn’t contribute much in the offensive end of the ice – just six points in 30 contests this season – but has at least provided steady play on the back end for Edmonton. Chiarelli perhaps could have pursued a more dynamic player to address his team’s dire need on the blue line but Larsson came with the cost-certainty that RFA options like Mathew Dumba and Jacob Trouba did not. The Oilers will soon have to consider extensions for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl – neither of which will come cheap – and getting Larsson in the midst of a long-term deal with a manageable cap hit carries additional value.

Verdict – Hall is clearly the better and more valuable player, both today and into the future. But to Chiarelli’s credit, he knew his team needed to improve on the back end and was willing to lose the trade to make his team better. It’s probable the Oilers GM simply was not content maintaining the status quo and made the best deal available to upgrade the blue line. With the Oilers at the top of the Pacific Division standings, Chiarelli is likely pleased with how this deal has worked out for Edmonton.