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Poll: How Many Remaining Veteran Free Agents Will Sign?

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With just one day left in July, free agents have had a month to find employment in the NHL. Last summer, there were less than 20 unrestricted free agents signed after the end of July through the beginning of the regular season. This off-season, there are a plethora of notable names left on the market, but at this point is is unlikely that they all find a new home in the league. The question now is how many of these top names get lucky.

Rick Nash could find a landing spot if he wanted to. The six-time All-Star is currently evaluating his future in hockey versus his health after suffering yet another concussion this season. Should he decide to return, he would likely have more than a few teams interested in a short-term deal.

If Nash opts not to return, the top-scoring forward from last season left on the market is actually Mike Cammalleri. Cammalleri, 36, quietly put up 29 points last season after a hot start with the Los Angeles Kings and then a trade to the Edmonton Oilers. The former point-per-game player is not quite that kind of scorer any more, but could still contribute to a number of teams.

Benoit Pouliot was a perennial 30-point player until he turned 30 and has struggled the past two years. In the right situation, he could still make an impact. The same goes for Mark Letestu, Drew Stafford and Jannik Hansen. Ales Hemsky was highly productive before injuries derailed his career, but remains a possible high-ceiling gamble if back at 100%.

Other available forwards bring more of a two-way game such as Daniel Winnik, Scott Hartnell, Scottie Upshall, Chris Stewart, Antoine Vermette, Jussi Jokinen, Tommy Wingels, Jason Chimera, Joel Ward, Dominic Moore, Matt Stajan, and Lee Stempniak. There are also some younger options like Alex Chiasson, Nick Shore, Logan Shaw, Tomas Jurco, and Freddie Hamilton.

On the blue line, Luca Sbisa is reportedly drawing interest from several teams across the league. Although he suited up for just 30 games with the Vegas Golden Knights, he managed to register 14 points and plays a strong checking game. It would seem that Sbisa is in line for a contract at some point.

But what about Toby Enstrom? A free agent for the first time in his long career, the well-respected veteran was expected to land a contract early on but still remains unemployed. Enstrom has always been a reliable presence on the back end, but at 33 years old, he has shown signs of slowing down.

Other aging options on defense include Alexei Emelin, Johnny Oduya, Kevin Bieksa, Dennis Seidenberg, Kyle Quincey, Paul Martin, Josh Gorges, and Jason Garrison. However, experience may not be able to outweigh ability with many younger defenseman still out there. Brandon Davidson, Cody Franson, and Paul Postma seem like players who should be signed, while Justin Falk, Frank Corrado, Ryan Sproul, and Duncan Siemens are all intriguing targets as well.

In net, the options are pretty straightforward. One would think that Kari Lehtonen, Steve Mason, and Ondrej Pavelec had all done enough in their careers to earn a continued stay in the NHL, especially when there are no other legitimate goaltenders available at this point. Yet, its hard to pinpoint three teams that need another option in goal. These three keepers may need to wait until injuries strike to find work.

So, how many of these remaining free agents will sign before the season starts?

Free Agent Market Quiet For Veteran Defensemen

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Over one hundred free agents have signed a contract with a new team already this off-season. Of that group, just three of those signings are defenseman over the age of 30: the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Jack Johnson, the Vegas Golden Knights’ Nick Holden, and the Dallas Stars’ Roman Polak. While veteran goaltenders and forwards continue to garner major interest on the open market and land substantial contracts, it seems defenders of the same age and experience are not being valued similarly across the league. With the NHL trending more toward a speed and finesse game, older blue liners who depend on positional awareness and seasoned checking ability may no longer be able to compete for jobs with younger players at the position with fresh legs and an open mind.

Of PHR’s Top 50 NHL Unrestricted Free Agents, only nine remain unsigned. Two of those nine players – Rick Nash and Kris Versteeg – may not return to playing pro hockey. Of the seven remaining players, three are defenseman over the age of 30: Dan Hamhuis (#24), Toby Enstrom (#37), and Alexei Emelin (#42).  Good veteran defensemen are out there and make up some of the best available players, but are simply not drawing the interest that was expected. Other unsigned names include Brooks Orpik, Johnny Oduya, Kevin Bieksa, Dennis Seidenberg, Kyle Quincey, Paul Martin, Josh Gorges, and Jason Garrison, none of whom have made considerable noise on the rumor mill. 32-year-old Taylor Chorney even moved on to Switzerland due to a stagnant market for older defensemen.

Will several of these names sign an NHL contract prior to next season? Yes, however it’s unlikely that the majority will find meaningful employment if they haven’t already at this point in the summer. Of the remaining names, the most likely to land jobs are those closer to 30 without as much wear and tear on their bodies. The three players who have already found jobs – Johnson, Holden, and Polak – are all 32 or under. Emelin and Quincey at 32 have good odds, as do Enstrom and Gorges at 33. It would also be a major surprise if 35-year-old Hamhuis went unsigned. However, it would not be a shock to see only those five land a deal. This is a free agent market saturated in experienced, capable veteran defensemen, but few who can keep up with the NHL’s current pace of play. As a result, the supply greatly outweighs the demand and the free agent market for older blue liners could continue to remain quiet.

Free Agent Focus: New York Islanders

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Free agency is now a little less than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of New York’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: F Brock Nelson – Though all eyes in New York are watching a certain unrestricted free agent (we’ll get to that later), the team still has plenty of work to do with some of their restricted players this summer. One of those is Nelson, who while frustratingly inconsistent at times still has four straight seasons with at least 19 goals.

It’s not that Nelson is an integral offensive piece on a team that has plenty of weapons up front, but scoring goals in the NHL is a daunting task and those who can do it at both even-strength and on the powerplay aren’t that easy to find. For any team, secondary scoring threats like Nelson get paid exceptionally well and are a tough group to hold on to long-term. Even with his slightly reduced totals this season, he’s still heading into the summer in a strong negotiating position as this is his final year before qualifying for UFA status. That means any term the Islanders give is buying out UFA years and sending the average annual value of the contract skyrocketing.

D Ryan Pulock – It’s not just up front that the team has some tough decisions, as Pulock broke out this season and could be looking for a long-term deal. The 23-year old defenseman finally got his full-time chance in the NHL and crushed it with 32 points in 68 games. That came with the best possession stats of any defenseman on the team, while still taking his fair share of defensive responsibilities.

Pulock is only now coming off his entry-level contract and is not yet eligible for salary arbitration, meaning the Islanders could certainly wait to lock him up long-term. That said, he’s so clearly a part of their future on the blue line that the team may want to commit right away.

Other RFAs: F Ross Johnston, F Alan Quine, F Shane Prince, D Brandon Davidson, D Kyle Burroughs, F Kyle Schempp, D Devon Toews

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F John Tavares – It all starts and ends with Tavares, who is basically holding the free agent market hostage at the moment. Though John Carlson and others are fine prizes, no one is a franchise-changing player like Tavares in the prime of his career. The three-time 80-point man is coming off one of his most successful offensive seasons and he has proven time and again to be able to carry less talented wingers to big production.

Every team in the league would love to slide Tavares into their lineup, but it’s still unclear how many would really be able to put together the kind of financial package to entice him. Even that’s only if he ends up hitting the free agent market, something that may not even be likely at this point. Recently, when the Islanders fired their GM and head coach a new bout of speculation arose about Tavares’ connection with the franchise and intention to stick around. No one—except perhaps Lou Lamoriello, who could keep a secret from his son if he needed to—knows exactly where Tavares is headed. We’ll find out in just a few weeks.

D Calvin de Haan – Amazingly, Tavares isn’t the only important free agent the Islanders have. Though they already locked up Josh Bailey, de Haan and Thomas Hickey represent a good portion of their defense corps that is currently scheduled for the free agent market. The Islanders struggled in part this season keeping the puck out of their own net because of injuries to de Haan, who played just 33 games in total.

The 27-year old defenseman has shown flashes of brilliance over the years, like when he suited up for Canada in the 2017 IIHF World Championship, but has struggled to put it all together and become the top-pairing defenseman the team once hoped for. He won’t be paid like it this summer, but there will certainly be a market for him if he ends up leaving the Islanders.

Other UFAs: F Chris Wagner, F Nikolai Kulemin (headed to KHL), D Thomas Hickey, D Dennis Seidenberg, G Jaroslav Halak, D Kane Lafranchise, F Connor Jones, G Christopher Gibson, F Stephen Gionta, D Seth Helgeson, G Kristers Gudlevskis

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

German Star Dominik Kahun Eyeing Jump To NHL

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It certainly feels like Germany is about to take that next step toward becoming a legitimate hockey power. After an amazing run to the gold medal game at the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, coached by arguably the best German player of all-time, Marco Sturm, hockey fans in Germany and around the world are starting to realize that German hockey has quietly gained a foothold in the NHL and has now announced its presence on an international scale. With the likes of Leon Draisaitl – easily the biggest threat to unseat Sturm or Jochen Hecht as the top German to ever play – Tobias Rieder and Tom Kuhnhackl making an impact as forwards in the NHL, Dennis Seidenberg (a German legend in his own right) and Korbinian Holzer still playing key roles on the blue line at the highest level, Philipp Grubauer and Thomas Greiss doing their best to be the next Olaf Kolzig, and young Dominik Bokk set to soon join the ranks as a surefire first-rounder in 2018, the quantity and quality of German players in the NHL may be at an all-time high.

So, it’s no surprise that there is interest from NHL teams in one of Germany’s top home-grown players. Munich-based news site “Abendzeitung” sat down (link in German) with forward Dominik Kahun, one of the heroes of the German Olympic team,  who said he has already received ample interest from the league. The article indicates that “the time has come” for the young German to make the jump to highest level. Kahun, 22, finished with the second-most points for Germany at the Winter Games and clearly outplayed former NHL talents like Christian Ehrhoff and Marcel Goc. His success came as little surprise to German fans, as Kahun was having the best season in the DEL, the top German league, of any of his national team compatriots. Playing for EHC Munchen alongside veteran American Keith Aucoin, Kahun is 15th in points, 7th in assists, and tied for 16th in plus/minus in the DEL so far in 2017-18. His 40 points in 41 games is tied for the fourth-best clip of any player with 40+ games on the year and is already a big step up from his 32- and 30-point totals from the past two seasons. Nearly every player close to Kahun in terms of DEL production this year is on the wrong side of 30, while the young left winger has only just begun to tap into his potential.

Kahun is not guaranteed to find immediate success in the NHL. It will take time for him to adjust to the speed and especially the physicality of the league and even the smaller ice surface. Playing on IIHF ice against non-NHLers at the Olympics was not a true indication of how he would play at the next level. However, Kahun is young enough and clearly talented enough to develop into a strong player down the road. He already possesses the all-important understanding of a complete, two-way game and is a strong enough skater to play at both ends of the ice. He also comes equipped with good stick-handling skills and offensive instincts. The right team willing to work on his development and give him chances to succeed could have a gem in Kahun.

Perhaps even more importantly, should Kahun find success in the NHL, it would continue to inspire a new generation of hockey fans and young hockey players in Germany. While the 2018 Olympics were largely dismissed by many North American spectators due to the non-inclusion of NHLers, the results still meant a lot to other participating countries, none more so than Germany. If their Olympic hero turns into the next great German NHL player, possibly playing for a long time with the likes of Draisaitl and Bokk, there’s no telling what the impact of these Games and that silver medal could have on the next class of young players and a country on the rise in the hockey world.

Deadline Primer: New York Islanders

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With the trade deadline now just a few days away, we continue our closer look at the situation for each team.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?  Next up is a look at the New York Islanders.

The New York Islanders know that time is running out for them. The team is doing everything it can to re-sign their franchise player John Tavares, but as the offseason seems to be getting closer and closer, the Islanders are also find themselves battling for one of the final playoff spots and are currently on the outside looking in. With a struggling defense and a goaltending tandem that leave a lot to be desired, the Islanders must feel a sense of urgency to make some changes in hopes they can fix their team enough to vault them into the playoffs. While making the playoffs is no guarantee they can extend Tavares, missing the playoffs certainly won’t help either.

Record

29-26-7, sixth in the Metropolitan Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$4,381,086 in deadline cap space
45/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2018: NYI 1st, CAL 1st, NYI 2nd, CAL 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 7th
2019: NYI 1st, CAL 2nd*, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th

*If the Flames miss the playoffs in 2018, the Islanders receive a 2019 second-round pick. If the Flames make the 2018 playoffs, then the Islanders get a 2020 second-round pick.

Trade Chips

Feb 13, 2018; Brooklyn, NY, USA; New York Islanders defenseman Johnny Boychuk (55) takes a shot during pregame warmups prior to the game against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY SportsWhile defense is a big weakness on this team, the biggest trade chip this team has are the picks they received from trading defenseman Travis Hamonic to the Calgary Flames in the offseason. The team has Calgary’s first and second-round picks and could dangle those assets along with their own picks and some of the Islanders young talent such as Joshua Ho-Sang or Anthony Beauvillier. The team could also consider moving some of their pending unrestricted free agents such as Thomas Hickey or Dennis Seidenberg, but would probably need a defenseman back before they weaken their defense even further. Jaroslav Halak’s expiring contract could be a piece in upgrading in goal.

Players to Watch: W Anthony Beauvillier; G Jaroslav Halak; W Joshua Ho-Sang; D Thomas Hickey; D Dennis Seidenberg

Team Needs

1) Defense

Desperate for defense, the team already unloaded a third-round pick to acquire defenseman Brandon Davidson, but the team has allowed the most goals in the NHL this season as they have allowed 223 goals this season. Injuries to defenseman like Johnny Boychuk and Calvin de Haan haven’t helped, but the team needs to solidify its defense if they want to make a playoff run. Don’t be surprised if the team tries to grab a quality defenseman to stabilize their blueline core.

2) Goaltending

While you can’t blame the goaltenders for everything as the defense doesn’t help out Halak or backup Thomas Greiss, the Islanders are desperately in need of a shakeup in the pipes. With Halak’s contract about to expire, could the team try to upgrade and bring in a Robin Lehner or an Aaron Dell in hopes that one of them might decrease the amount of goals that are getting past them?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidates: Thomas Hickey

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

Thomas Hickey’s name is not one that has been heard often this year: not in regards to trades, not in regards to his impending free agency, not in regards to his performance, not at all, really. Yet, the question is not why, but why not? Hickey is arguably enjoying his best NHL season and is a main reason why injuries didn’t tear the New York Islanders apart. Hickey has come a long way from being a fourth overall pick with chronic injury issues given away on waivers; it’s time to give him his due credit. Hickey is a dark horse candidate to be traded by the deadline if another team realizes his value and the Islanders decide they are better off trading him than keeping him.

Contract

Hickey is in the final season of a three-year, $6.6MM contract signed in 2015. The deal carries a $2.2MM cap hit – which will be count for under $600K by the deadline – and has no trade protection.

2017-18

It’s no secret that allowing goals – a league-high 214 (and it’s not close) – is what separates the New York Islanders from many other similarly skilled contenders. Yet, things could be much worse. Calvin de Haan suffered a season-ending injury in December and Johnny Boychuk has missed more than 20 games due to injury; those injuries could have broken the Isles. Add in Nick Leddy’s struggles in his own zone and the declining play of Dennis Seidenberg and, without Hickey, this could very well be a team far outside of the player picture. Instead, New York currently holds the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference and are very much in the mix to keep it. Hickey has been a solid two-way presence for the Islanders all season. Beginning the campaign as a frequent healthy scratch to now the third-leading defenseman in total ice time, behind Leddy and Adam Pelech, Hickey’s role has transformed as his performance has improved. Hickey now leads the team in plus/minus by a significant margin, is third among defensemen in scoring, and has claimed a spot on the team’s top penalty kill unit. Hickey also has the second-most defensive zone starts, again behind only Pelech, as he has been relied on for sound defensive play in his own end and his great ability to see the ice and make an outlet pass. On the personal side, Hickey is on pace for 21 points this season, which would be his third-most in the NHL and the best points-per-game rate of his career. Hickey has quietly been very impressive this season, even if the score sheet or the eye test doesn’t seem to point to a star player and, beyond that, has been incredibly valuable to the Islanders.

Season Stats

47 GP, 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points, +15 rating, 63 shots, 18:07 ATOI, 46.2 CF%

Potential Suitors

Hickey has stepped up and played great for the Islanders in 2017-18. With that well-established, New York is also a team with many injuries on the blue line. Hickey cannot play a bigger role down the stretch for any other team than he has for the Isles. Like more talked-about names such as Nick Holden or Ben Hutton, Hickey will be a depth addition for a contender if he’s traded; a luxury No. 6, 7, or 8 defender. So who needs depth on the left side? The Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning, both vying for the President’s Trophy, are both eager to add another body to their respective blue lines, but may be unwilling to pay the price for a top name. Hickey would seem to fit nice on either top contender. The Metropolitan rival New Jersey Devils could also greatly benefit from another body on the blue line, but the Isles may be hesitant to trade him to a team also in contention for an Eastern wild card spot.

The best chance for the Isles to both trade Hickey and also not hurt their own Stanley Cup odds would be to look west, where the Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets would both like to add another defenseman on the left side, especially one who plays a confident game in his own zone. Either destination would be a good fit for Hickey, where he could work his way into a starting role.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Unlike the aforementioned Holden and Hutton, Hickey is not on a team that is a bona fide seller. The Islanders are still fighting for a playoff spot and, more importantly, to show impending free agent John Tavares that they have a bright future. Hickey has played such a key role for New York, that no one will blame them that if they use him as their own “rental” in order to maintain some semblance of a team that can prevent the opposition from scoring.

However, there are two scenarios in which Hickey becomes far more likely to move. The first is if, over the next nine days, the Islanders’ playoff hopes take a major hit. New York plays its next three games against likely playoff teams, including the Devils, and anything less than two points in that stretch could see their playoff hopes slip away. The second scenario is that, as has been rumored, the Isles acquire one of the top defensemen on the trade market. While that would be a sign that they are all in for this season, even if their acquisition has term on his contract, it could also mean that they hedge their bet by trading away Hickey for the best offer.

If the deafening silence surrounding Hickey means anything, the Islanders are not keen on moving him. Yet, things can always change around the deadline. A loss of playoff odds, a big trade, or even just an overwhelming offer could cause GM Garth Snow to rethink his plan. Give it a 50/50 chance that Hickey is dealt.

Islanders Place Hickey On IR; Send Prince To Bridgeport

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The New York Islanders announced they have placed defenseman Thomas Hickey on injured reserve with an upper body injury which he suffered in Saturday’s game against the Boston Bruins. The move is retroactive to Saturday. There is no indication from the Islanders on the severity of the injury, although several reporters at the game pointed out a hit from Boston’s David Backes that could have been the source of the injury. No corresponding move has been made yet.

Hickey has been a full-time player on the Islanders’ defensive depth chart, but has found himself among a bunch of players rotating for the final two spots on the team’s defense. He has played in 21 of the team’s 29 games so far this year, putting up one goal and five assists in 17:29 of ice time.

Hickey’s loss is manageable as other defensemen like Ryan Pulock, Scott Mayfield and Dennis Seidenberg should be able to step up in his place. With the amount of depth the Islanders possessed, there were rumors the team might look to move a blueliner, possibly even Hickey himself, but Hickey’s injury could delay those plans.

The team also made another move as the team removed Shane Prince from the injured non-roster list and has sent him to the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL on a conditioning loan. Prince, who underwent ankle surgery in August was expected to miss four to six months. He is expected to spend a week with Bridgeport. A former second-round pick in 2011, Prince played 50 games for the Islanders last year, putting up five goals and 13 assists.

The Best Fits For Matt Duchene

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Despite the tumultuous off-season for Matt Duchene and the Colorado Avalanche, GM Joe Sakic fully expects him to show up to training camp. At least, that’s what he told BSN Denver’s Adrian Dater. “He’s under contract and I expect him to be here” Sakic said, “Not everybody always comes to camp early. It’s not for me to (say), but I assume on the 14th, he’ll be here.” Sakic is referring to Duchene being one of only two Avs players under contract not to participate in captain’s practice last week. Holdouts may be rare in the NHL, but Duchene’s words and actions this summer have painted a pretty clear picture of a player who would like to leave Colorado.

If Duchene has reached his wit’s end with the trade rumors that have persisted since late 2016 and truly has no intention of suiting up for the Avalanche again, Sakic has just a few days left to trade him before this begins to enter holdout territory. The perceived problem all along is that Sakic has not dropped the asking price that has long been considered a young top-four defenseman, a first round pick, and one or two more young roster players or prospects. Not only do few (read: any) NHL teams have a young top-four blue liner to spare, but it’s hard to imagine anyone giving up such a package for Duchene, who has just two seasons remaining on his contract and is coming off a down 2016-17 season. Duchene had scored 55 or more points in five of his seven NHL seasons entering last year – and easily would have made it six had the the 2012-13 lockout-shorten seasoned been extended – yet, he ended up with only 41 points and an egregious -34 rating last season; a low point for both he and the Avalanche franchise.

Logic would seem to indicate that, holdout or not, Sakic has to continue listening to offers for Duchene and needs to lower an unreasonable asking price. TSN recently released their list  of the top nine NHL trade candidates this season, with Duchene obviously at the top. They list the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders, Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, and Pittsburgh Penguins as the mostly likely destinations for Duchene. The Carolina Hurricanes and San Jose Sharks have also been in the rumor mix this summer.

Right away, a few of those options can have their odds discounted. Having just traded away Travis Hamonic and traded for Jordan Eberle, the New York Islanders and their estimated $3MM in cap space likely lack the capacity and the desire to pony up for Duchene at this point. The Isles are still deep on defense, but with Thomas Hickey and Dennis Seidenberg approaching free agency next year, trading yet another young defenseman like Calvin de Haan, Adam Pelech or Ryan Pulock could put the team in hole. Without one of those three, it is hard to see New York making a suitable offer. The defending two-time Cup champs are in a similar situation. While many Pens fans would love to see the embarrassment of riches of Duchene as the third line center behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh too lacks the cap space, currently about $3.25MM, and the pieces to get the job done. That is, unless Sakic is keen on Olli Maatta or the Penguins offer up Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, or an overwhelming offer of picks and prospects including Derrick Pouliot and enough salary to offset Duchene. It’s a series of unlikely scenarios. Additionally, the Montreal Canadiens lack anything remotely close to a young top four defenseman. Duchene would be a great fit for the Habs, but they simply don’t have the pieces.

The Hurricanes and Bruins certainly have the pieces to acquire Duchene, but it seems unlikely that either will be the team to finally do it. Boston was in talks with Colorado last year, but balked at the ask of a package including Charlie McAvoy or Brandon Carlo and wouldn’t be willing to move Torey Krug either. If the price drops, the B’s have talented young defenders like Jakob Zboril, Jeremy Lauzon, Ryan Lindgren, and 2017 first rounder Uhro Vaakanainen waiting in the wings, but even if that was enough, the Bruins’ quiet off-season has indicated that they would like to move forward with their own young players this season. Carolina, on the other hand, is a Duchene-caliber player away from being a true contender and would love to add someone with his ability. However, GM Ron Francis has made it clear that he does not want to trade any of his defensemen. That hasn’t stopped TSN for listing “a Carolina defenseman” as one of their top trade candidates, but as of now there is no reason to think any of Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, or Noah Hanifin are going anywhere. Like Boston, Carolina still has solid pieces if the price drops, such as Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean, but another thought has been whispered this summer that may take Carolina out of the Duchene race altogether. Since acquiring Trevor van Riemsdyk from the Vegas Golden Knights back in June, a player who by all accounts they didn’t really need, many have speculated that Carolina is looking to make a run at 2018 premiere free agent James van Riemsdyk, to bring in the scoring power forward that they desperately desire.

The Blue Jackets and Sharks would be ideal landing spots for Duchene, but both teams would need to get creative with their offers. Both squads have a need for a scoring forward, the cap space to take him on and plenty of talented defensemen, but what they would be willing up on the blue line is not exactly what Colorado desires. There is no way that Columbus includes Zach Werenski or Seth Jones in a deal, but could be open to trading David Savard or Ryan Murray. However, each have a caveat. Savard, while a solid top-four talent, has had durability issues and difficulty with consistent production over the past couple of years. While he would be a great addition to any defense, that may not be what Sakic is looking to get back. Murray, while injury prone, is a highly-skilled young rearguard, but, amazingly, the 24-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. Any deal involving Murray would first have to include a long-term extension with the league’s worst team. Columbus’ best chance of getting Duchene likely involves a package with top defensive prospect Gabriel Carlsson and a young roster player like Josh Anderson or Oliver Bjorkstrand. San Jose also has a few untouchables on defense, namely superstars Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Colorado also wouldn’t be interested in veterans Paul Martin and Justin Braun. That leaves Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo as the top options. While both have shown top-four potential, they have largely played shutdown roles in their young careers and bring little offensive upside. Like Savard, one would think that Sakic has a little more in mind for the Duchene return than stay-at-home defenders like Dillon and DeMelo. If the Sharks package versatile puck-moving D-prospect Jeremy Roy with either though, then talks could really get started. A package that starts like that and ends with a first-round pick and one of San Jose’s many young forwards could be enough to seal the deal.

Yet, the top candidate to bring in Duchene is likely the reigning Western Conference champs. No, the Predators are not moving any of Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, or Mattias Ekholm, but the trick up their sleeve is top prospect Dante Fabbro. A junior teammate of Colorado top prospect Tyson Jost, Fabbro is considered one of the best prospects in hockey and should step into a top four role immediately when he leaves Boston University, much like Charlie McAvoy, who Sakic already targeted in Boston. Fabbro is not just a top-four defenseman, but a potential future #1 or at least a great option to pair with Cale Makar down the road. Sakic would be hard-pressed to find more upside up for grabs than Fabbro, but the Predators are set long-term on the blue line and desperately need to recoup the scoring lost in the Expansion Draft with the selection of James Neal. Fabbro, plus a young forward like Colton Sissons, Frederick Gaudreau, or Pontus Aberg, plus a first rounder and another pick or prospect, and Duchene could surely be on his way to Nashville.

Only time will tell where Duchene ends up, but the best case scenario for all parties is for that destination to not be Denver, Colorado for much longer. Sakic must and will eventually lower his asking price and someone will meet those demands. Could it be Nashville, Columbus, or San Jose? Definitely. Could it be Boston or Carolina? The Islanders or the Penguins? Possibly. Someone totally off the board? Of course. For such a talked-about topic, there is still so much uncertainty surrounding the situation. The next step will be to see if Duchene shows up to camp on Thursday. That decision could have a resounding effect on the trade process.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $72,015,833 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Anthony Beauvillier (Two years remaining, $894K)
D Ryan Pulock (One year remaining, $863K)
F Joshua Ho-Sang (Two years remaining, $863K)
F Mathew Barzal (Three years remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Pulock: $500K
Barzal: $400K
Beauvullier: $213K
Ho-Sang: $213K

The team had to be pleased with the first-year production from Beauvillier after he put up nine goals and 15 assists in 66 games. Granted, it could have been better, but for the former 2015 first-round pick who wasn’t even expected to make the team out of training camp last year, this was a solid start. He didn’t get off to much of a start early in the season, but by the end of the year, he put together a solid string of games along with linemates Ho-Sang and Lee. He will likely find himself on the team’s third line along with Ho-Sang to start the year.

Pulock, the team’s first-round pick in 2013, was one of the main reasons behind the offseason trade of Travis Hamonic. The talented defenseman was traded away for a first and two second-round picks with the idea of implementing Pulock into the team’s plans. Rumors are they intend to put Pulock onto the team’s power play and showcase his hard slapshot. He only played one game for New York last year and broke his foot after playing just 3:57 of ice time, but he showed off his skill with the AHL’s Bridgeport Sound Tigers, putting up 15 goals and 46 points in just 55 games.

Ho-Sang, the team’s first-round pick in 2014, only played 21 games last year for the Islanders, putting up four goals and six assists in that span. A full 82-game season should be able to demonstrate his long-term value to the franchise. Barzal still must make the team out of training camp, but is considered to be one of the top prospects in the game and should have every opportunity to win one of the center jobs, which is not a position of depth on the team. Barzal did see two games for the Islanders last year, but played most of the year for his junior team.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F John Tavares ($5.5MM, UFA)
G Jaroslav Halak ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Nikolai Kulemin ($4.19MM, UFA)
F Josh Bailey ($3.3MM, UFA)
D Calvin de Haan ($3.3MM, UFA)
F Brock Nelson ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Jason Chimera ($2.25MM, UFA)
D Thomas Hickey ($2.2MM, UFA)
D Dennis Seidenberg ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Shane Prince ($850K, RFA)
F Stephen Gionta ($650K, UFA)
D Scott Mayfield ($625K, RFA)
F Alan Quine ($613K, RFA)

Obviously, the team’s future seems to hinge on where Tavares’ contract situation ends up. The team has high hopes they can re-sign their star forward, who has scored 235 goals for the franchise over eight season and is just about to turn 27 years old. The team that has watched several of their top players walk away in past years need to lock him up or, at the very least, trade him off for some talent in return. Losing Tavares would likely set the team back significantly and could play a role on whether some of the other pending free agents will come back next year.

The team will be forced to decide what they want to do with some of their regulars, including Bailey, de Haan and Hickey. Bailey, a first-round pick from 2008, has been around for nine years and while he consistently averages between 10 and 15 goals, he hit a personal high in assists last season, picking up 43 to put together a big season while playing with Tavares on the first line. With the addition of Eberle who is expected to play with Tavares, the team will likely demote Bailey to the second or even possibly the third line, which could suggest the team may not mind if he moves on in one year.

De Haan has proven to be a solid top-four presence on the blueline, but after signing a one-year deal this offseason, setting up unrestricted free agency next year, the team may decide to move on from him at some point, while Hickey hasn’t worked his way into the team’s top four. So it may be that many of the pending free agents will be allowed to leave to free up cap space, including Kulemin, Chimera and Seidenberg, along with some of the others above. That could free up a lot of cap room.

The team also will likely allow Halak to walk unless the veteran goaltender can produce a bounce-back season. After a couple of respectable seasons for New York, the 32-year-old’s production took a hit as he posted a 2.80 GAA in 27 games and then was demoted to finish the season in the AHL. He is back, but no one is quite sure what to expect for the veteran.

Perhaps the most important free agent (besides Tavares) will end up being from restricted free agent Brock Nelson, who should be asking for a big raise after three 20-goal seasons. Their 2010 first-round pick had 20 goals and 25 assists for the team last year, a career-high.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Boston Bruins

at CDT | by 4 Comments

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Boston Bruins

Current Cap Hit: $64,848,335 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry Level Contracts

D Charlie McAvoy (two years remaining, $917K)
D Brandon Carlo (two years remaining, $789K)
F Frank Vatrano (one year remaining, $792.5K)
F Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson (two years remaining, $917K)
F Anders Bjork (three years remaining, $925K)

Boston has one of the deeper prospect pipelines in the NHL with upwards of a dozen players in the system on entry-level deals who could earn a call-up before that deal expires. However, this group of five stands the best chance of having a major impact on the Bruins right away in 2017-18.

Carlo, of course, already has a full year under his belt in which he skated in all 82 regular season games and played in over 20 minutes per night, all under the tutelage of one of the best defensive players of his generation: Zdeno Chara. Carlo has already made his #37 overall draft slot look like a steal, but with two more years at under $800K as he develops into a shutdown NHL defender, he could be one of the best blue line bargains in the league.

McAvoy is certainly ready to give Carlo a run for that title though. One of the Calder Trophy favorites for the upcoming season, McAvoy was thrown into the fire last season, making his NHL debut in the Bruins opening round playoff series. McAvoy performed admirably among a ragtag group of replacement players on Boston’s battered blue line and showed that he is more than ready for NHL action. Burning a season off of McAvoy’s ELC was a tough call for GM Don Sweeney and company, but giving McAvoy a taste last year could pay off this year. The former Boston University star and 2016 first-rounder will have all eyes on him in 2017-18.

Burning a year off of Forsbacka Karlsson’s entry-level deal for just one late-season game may have been ill-advised however. The Bruins love “JFK” and his two-way ability and cerebral play at center, with some in the organization and outside observers comparing him to Boston’s own Patrice Bergeron, widely considered the best two-way forward in the game. Those are big expectations to meet, but the Bruins will give Forsbacka Karlsson every chance to earn a regular role this season as they work to develop him into a well-rounded pro. JFK may not have the immediate impact, and expected pay day, of Carlo or McAvoy, but in two years he will certainly be worth more than $917K.

Vatrano has been a revelation for Boston since he was signed as an undrafted free agent, leaving UMass Amherst early in 2015. Vatrano led the AHL in goal scoring in 2015-16 with a stunning 36 goals in 36 games, while tallying 29 points in 83 NHL games along the way as well. Injury and inconsistency slowed down Vatrano’s rapid ascension last season, making 2017-18, his final ELC season, a major year in his career.

Finally, the Bruins were able to convince Bjork, a superstar at Notre Dame and the team’s 2014 fifth-round pick, to leave school early and sign on in Boston. The maximum three-year, $925K per ELC was nice motivation, but the team likely had to promise some play time as well. While Bjork’s spot on the team this season is not set in stone, with fellow high-end prospects Jake DeBrusk, Zach Senyshyn, Peter Cehlarik, and Danton Heinen clamoring for NHL play time, it seems that he’ll certainly get a chance. If the 2016-17 Hobey Baker candidate can find even remotely similar success in the big leagues compared to his past two NCAA seasons, his three-years of production at under $1MM will look mighty nice on the Bruins’ payroll.

One Year Remaining

D Zdeno Chara ($4MM, UFA)
F Ryan Spooner ($2.825MM, RFA)
F Riley Nash ($900K, UFA)
G Anton Khudobin ($1.2MM, UFA)

While it is a relatively painless 2018 free agency class for Boston, the end of Chara’s contract does loom large. The NHL’s tallest man has been the Bruins top defenseman since he signed with the team originally back in 2006 and very well could continue to be next season. It is possible that the Bruins re-sign Chara, whose cap hit drops from nearly $7MM to just $4MM this year, to a more affordable, short-term contract, but the more likely scenario is that the 40-year-old simply retires. He’ll leave the Boston blue line in much better condition than he found it back in ’06, with Torey Krug ready to lead the next wave of McAvoy, Carlo, and prospects like Jakub Zboril, Jeremy Lauzon, Ryan Lindgren, and Uhro Vaakanainen, but his size, strength, experience, and most of all, leadership, will not be easy to replace. The captain’s absence will be felt before the team even takes the ice for 2018-19 and could lead to the Bruins using the cap space Chara leaves behind to explore the free agent market.

Spooner and the Bruins nearly went to salary arbitration this summer, agreeing to terms on a one-year extension the morning of the hearing. Next year could be a very similar situation, whether Spooner performs or not. If Spooner can bounce back from a down 2016-17 season and prove that he is more than just a one-dimensional power play asset, then the Bruins will have to give him a raise on his new $2.825MM deal. If Spooner yet again struggles with the two-way and positional aspects of the game and is overshadowed by the Bruins’ younger talent, Sweeney will have to decide between bringing Spooner back again at a similar price and using up a roster spot or instead trading him away.

Nash and Khudobin, both signed on July 1st, 2016 to affordable two-year deals, also had incredibly similar seasons last year. Both were very disappointing for much of the year before their play picked up toward the end of the season. Going into 2017-18, Nash faces more pressure as he could take on the full responsibility of being the veteran presence on the checking line with Dominic Moore now gone. If Nash rises to the occasion, the Bruins have shown a fondness and loyalty toward their veteran fourth-liners and could reward Nash with an extension and a raise. If not, he’ll be gone. Khudobin also needs to have a big year, with starter Tuukka Rask in need of more rest than he got last season, but if Khudobin flops or if 24-year-old Zane McIntyre continues to light up the AHL, it seems very unlikely that he will re-sign.

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