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What Market Will Markov Attract?

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The market for Andrei Markov could be lukewarm or quite heated, and no one really seems to know which. Canadiens’ GM Marc Bergevin has been tight-lipped about his impending free agents, but it’s fair to assume he’ll have some interest in re-signing the Russian defender. That said, the cap situation for Montreal is not simple, and re-signing the dynamic unrestricted free-agent Alexander Radulov will likely take priority. The Habs also need to negotiate a contract with RFA Alex Galchenyuk, attempt to dump Tomas Plekanec’s salary, survive the expansion draft, and round out their forward corps. With Jordie Benn and Jeff Petry already looking to assume larger roles next season, Markov could easily slip through the cracks.

The 38 year-old earned a hefty $5.75 MM last season, but had reasonable production with 6 goals and 30 assists. His advanced possession numbers tell a tale, however, as he took a massive leap forward from the previous season, hitting a solid 54.0% Corsi For. His ice-time saw a slight drop (2:00 less per game), but he’s still seeing top-four minutes. Markov moves the puck well and is a power-play guru with a hard, accurate shot. He’s been the assistant captain on the Canadiens for many years and has never played in a different NHL city, but he could command a sizable final contract in this year’s complete drought of top-end players. If there ever were a time to cash in, this off-season could be it.

On the free-agent market, only Kevin Shattenkirk clearly outclasses Markov in terms of raw offensive ability from the blueline. A team might want to take a risk on a struggling but younger Michael Del Zotto or Dimitry Kulikov, but ultimately, Markov is the proven commodity. Considering that Markov has never won a championship, one would assume that if he were to leave the province of Quebec, it would be for a contender. There is no shortage of teams that could show interest. He could go to a perennial competitor on the cheap, such as the Blackhawks, or could opt for a squad like the Blue Jackets who are on the cusp of true contention. Where he lands is anyone’s guess at the moment,  but it’s fair to expect he will make a positive impact wherever he does.

Canadiens And Galchenyuk Face Difficult Negotiations

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There is a great deal of uncertainty in Montreal after a disappointing first round exit, where they struggled to score goals with consistency. The issues at center ice continue to haunt the organization. Thomas Plekanec has slowed down with age and could easily find himself exposed in the expansion draft, if not traded away later in the season. They need Alex Galchenyuk to become a bonafide top-six (if not #1) center. And yet, this past season, he struggled mightily down the stretch. His 2-year bridge deal is now expired and the RFA will need to come to terms with the Montreal franchise which has expressed quite a bit of frustration with his play.

Arbitration is certainly an option for Galchenyuk. The player’s agent, Pat Brisson is certainly willing to negotiate a one-year deal, but will the Canadiens want to risk Alex having a career year and skyrocketing his cost? That decision could be unwise tactically on the part of management. Ryan Spzorger of The Hockey Writers believes that the Canadiens would be foolish to pass up the opportunity to sign the potential number-one center long term. Especially after a relatively “down” season, Galchenyuk could be signed to a relative bargain, keeping the Canadiens’ cap structure reasonable for years to come.

There are two major issues which could cause negotiations to stall. First, there is a definite gap in perceived value between the player and the organization. The Canadiens have repeatedly dropped Galchenyuk down the lineup, with the player seeing the third line these playoffs alongside the likes of Andrew Shaw and Artturi Lehkonen. Fellow 23 year-old Phillip Danault usurped his spot on the top line, and the mediocre Tomas Plekanec leapfrogged him as well. His defensive play has been the subject of constant criticism, both under current coach Claude Julien as well as former coach Michel Therrien. Second, he has continually been shuffled from wing to center and back again. Players who have played the majority of their career up the middle don’t often appreciate the shift, nor react well to it. Although Galchenyuk has obviously been frustrated with the situation, he has tried his best to adapt to a foreign position on the left side, to little success.

Galchenyuk’s value as a trade piece shouldn’t be understated if the gap between the negotiating parties is too great. GM Marc Bergevin could be tempted to move him for a more “established” center if the offers from other teams increase in frequency. In the end, it seems likely that the parties will compromise on a short-term contract somewhere in the range of $5-6 MM. This would provide Galchenyuk further incentive to perform and gives Montreal an “out” if he continues to regress. A year removed from a 30 goal, 56 point season, it would be a mistake to not include Galchenyuk as part of the Canadiens’ future plans.

Expansion Primer: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

With the Penguins up two games to zero in the Stanley Cup Finals, the team’s success under the guidance of GM Jim Rutherford cannot be understated. Potential back-to-back championships following a long list of playoff disappointments and identity crises would all but erase the sting of many poor management decisions under former GM Ray Shero.

After the acquisition of Phil Kessel, the team has not looked back in the slightest offensively. They sat out and relished their summer last off-season with minimal movement, but this year Rutherford has decisions to make. Although the makeup of the team will surely be different come October, there are many options to be considered.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Sidney Crosby (NMC), Evgeni Malkin (NMC), Phil Kessel (NMC), Patric Hornqvist, Carl Hagelin, Bryan Rust, Tom Kuhnhackl, Scott Wilson, Josh Archibald (RFA), Oskar Sundqvist (RFA), Jean-Sebastien Dea (RFA)

Defense:

Kris Letang (NMC), Olli Maatta, Ian Cole, Brian Dumoulin (RFA), Derrick Pouliot (RFA), Justin Schultz (RFA), Frank Corrado (RFA), Tim Erixon (RFA), Stuart Percy (RFA)

Goalies:

Marc-Andre Fleury (NMC), Matt Murray

Jake Guentzel, Conor Sheary, Daniel Sprong, Carter Rowney, Tristan Jarry, Zach Aston-Reese, Thomas DiPauli, Teddy Blueger, Dominik Simon,  Jeff Taylor, Ethan Prow, Lukas Bengtsson, Sean Maguire

Key Decisions

To get the elephant in the room cleared aside, it seems a foregone conclusion that Marc-Andre Fleury will waive his No Movement Clause in order for the franchise to protect Matt Murray. This arrangement would suit him, as he performs far better statistically in a starting role, and it allows him to be “the guy” in a new city. If for some unforeseen reason Fleury opts against waiving his NMC, Rutherford will assuredly find a trade elsewhere prior to the expansion draft. At the end of the day, Murray, with two amazing playoff performances at only 23 years-old, is going nowhere.

The other four players who must be protected are those which will not give management any sleepless nights. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are both future hall of famers playing prime hockey, providing great value for their contracts. Kessel, at his reduced rate, has absolutely exceeded expectations when his contract was shipped from Toronto. Kris Letang is the only player who some fans have balked out, as he has missed substantial chunks of time, consistently hitting LTIR and wasting cap dollars. Letang, however, is easily a top-10 defenseman in the league,. Watching how these playoffs have been far less decisive than last for Pittsburgh, there is no doubt the entire organization is willing to take the risk to have him return to the blueline.

The major decision right off the start will be whether Rutherford will decide to go with the 7 forwards-3 defensemen-1 goalie model, or the 8 total protected alternative. It seems apparent that most teams will opt for the former, because it provides protection to two additional players. The Penguins, however, are facing truly unique circumstances, and it seems slightly more likely that they will opt for the latter.

Assuming they go that route to protect their defensive corps (one of Justin Schultz/Olli Maatta), the decision at forward will not be an easy one. Beyond the big three up front who must be protected, there are a few names which could intrigue Vegas. Considering the cost to acquire him (James Neal), and his absolutely pivotal net-front presence, Patrick Hornqvist seems the safest bet to secure protection. Rutherford is a big fan, and many in management have placed a lot of faith in him. The downside of this, of course, is that it would leave Bryan Rust exposed. Rust has already made a name for himself in big games, with multiple game-winning and series-clinching goals. He has the same net-front mentality that Hornqvist does, and is five years his junior. Hornqvist is the more proven offensive commodity, but Rust’s 15 goals and 28 points are nothing to look down upon. In the wake of a potential loss of the hard nosed but unrestricted Chris Kunitz, this would be a painful blow to the team’s physicality. Thankfully, both Conor Sheary and Jake Guentzel are exempt from selection, which helps solidify their top lines regardless of this decision.

The defense if the 4-4-1 model is adopted is quite easy to predict. Although Ian Cole has been a completely perfect shot-blocking minute muncher this playoff run, he is 28 years old and relatively ineffective at driving offense with speed. Assuming that Schultz re-signs and doesn’t command an absolute robbery of a contract, he will be protected. His playoff run has been mostly solid, if spotted with occasional mishap, and his 51 points last season was good for 6th among defenseman in the league, just behind the likes of Dustin Byfuglien and Duncan Keith. That sort of production isn’t easily replaced, and especially considering Letang’s precarious health situation, he is the go-to offensive defenseman in his absence.

Maatta could certainly find himself on the outs, but it’s difficult to imagine him being exposed in the expansion draft. The team showed a great deal of confidence in him by inking him to a 6 year contract after limited sophomore season action, and his contract at $4.083 is certainly manageable. The 23 year-old two-way defender will certainly need to improve his skating to keep up with the high-flying organizational mentality, and there is the possibility his sluggishness has landed him in serious disfavor. If Rutherford were intent on moving on from Maatta, however, it would not be via expansion – he is too valuable a piece to lose for nothing. A trade is certainly a possibility, but the smart money is on the front office praying for a healthy summer of training and improvement for the young Finn.

It is certainly conceivable that the Penguins do opt for the 7-3-1 option, if they truly value Rust more than Schultz or Maatta. This would result in Rust, Scott Wilson, and one of Tom Kuhnhackl, Josh Archibald, and Carl Hagelin to be the additional protect-ees. (Hagelin’s $4 MM contract would likely make him a prime target for sacrifice under this scenario.) Maatta would be the likely claim in this potentiality, as he is less favored internally for purely stylistic reasons when contrasted with Schultz.

However, it seems more likely that Pittsburgh has already worked out a scenario between Fleury, his agent, and Vegas management regarding Marc-Andre Fleury. Rutherford’s lack of panic around the draft last year has led many to believe that this situation has already been handled, and that perhaps a sweetener will be thrown in for not claiming Bryan Rust or a young defenseman.

Projected Protection List

F Sidney Crosby (NMC)
F Evgeni Malkin (NMC)
F Phil Kessel (NMC)
F Patrick Hornqvist

D Kris Letang (NMC)
D Brian Dumoulin
D Justin Schultz
D Olli Maatta

G Matt Murray

If for whatever reason one of Maatta and Schultz is left to dry in the place of this prediction, the re-signing of Trevor Daley and perhaps even Ron Hainsey would likely follow suit. The loss of Rust would be difficult to sustain on an emotional level, as he has been a leader for the younger Wilkes-Barre call-ups since last season. But with young players like Zach Aston-Reese and Daniel Sprong looking to claim a roster spot in training camp next season, his offensive production would likely be easy to absorb. Ultimately, however, it seems probable that Fleury will be Vegas’ selection. Following his impressive resurgence in the first two round of the playoffs, and his difficult situation in Pittsburgh behind the legendary Matt Murray, it seems a fit that would work for all parties involved.

Will Hamonic Stay In Brooklyn?

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In an off-season where the Islanders’ primary concerns will be extending John Tavares to quell rumors of his departure at the end of the season, and developing prospects into NHL ready contributors, focus on the blueline should not be overlooked.

Travis Hamonic’s stats aren’t particularly glamorous, with 3 goals and 11 assists through 49 games this past year. His Corsi For % was a career worst at a very unfortunate 43.0%, but many players struggled mightily this season in Brooklyn. He is the assistant captain of the team and his leadership with young players has been particularly important in the wake of losing both Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen a year ago. While Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk have been brilliant in their roles, Hamonic rounds the defense out with a shutdown type. Calvin de Haan has developed well and will contribute after the RFA negotiates his own contract with New York ownership. The potential error going forward is that the Islanders will see Hamonic as relatively expendable, and that could prove a costly mistake. For a franchise trying yet again to find a way back into the playoffs in a brutally competitive Metropolitan Division, losing top-4 defensemen at their lowest value is not acceptable asset management. If Hamonic were indeed dealt, it would presumably be for far less than Taylor Hall, which according to Arthur Staple and Lighthouse Hockey was an offer rejected by GM Garth Snow last off-season.

Hamonic is listed as the #5 prize in this years trade bait list by TSN which is slightly surprising for a relatively unassuming player. The Wild will almost assuredly trade one of Jonas Brodin (#2) or Mathew Dumba (#3) – leaving the Islanders with an enticing stalwart in a league with lots of struggling defensive squads. That said, it’s difficult to imagine a top line talent being the piece coming back. The Islanders’ stockpile of young players is already quite impressive, so established production is imperative. The player would also likely need to be a winger who could play with John Tavares, but he has had difficulty gelling with players in the past. Although Hamonic had a down year, management should view his overall performance with the franchise  rather than drawing conclusions from a tough final season under former coach Jack Capuano. Perhaps the wisest option is to allow Hamonic’s stock to rise again before considering a move.

2017 Offer Sheet Compensation

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Though it is almost never used in today’s NHL, the idea of an offer sheet still intrigues fans and media alike. Signing a restricted free agent out from under the nose of a rival, taking a superstar away in his prime. Brett Barrett broke it down for us earlier this month, when he took a look at some of the top available names on the RFA market this summer. We’ve seen examples of offer sheets in the past, with Shea Weber signing a 14-year contract with Philadelphia in 2012, only to have it matched by Nashville. The Predators would have received four first-round picks had they let the then-26-year old Norris runner-up walk away.

Offer sheet compensation is based on the average salary of the league, something that Elliotte Friedman reports has gone up to ~$3.01MM this season, a 4.55% bump from a year ago. Because of it, the compensation has been set and Friedman has provided a breakdown.

$1,295,571 or less No compensation
$1,295,571 to $1,962,968 Third-round pick
$1,962,968 to $3,925,975 Second-round pick
$3,925,975 to $5,888,960 First and third-round picks
$5,888,960 to $7,851,948 First, second and third-round picks
$7,851,948 to $9,814,935 Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $9,814,935 Four first-round picks

This season has an impressive group of RFAs headlined by players like Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak and Ryan Johansen (among many, many others). There will be much speculation over a possible offer sheet, but they’re used more as a negotiating tactic for the player than a real option for teams looking to acquire talent. Even if they are signed, the player is hardly ever allowed to leave.

It is important to note, that to sign a player to an offer sheet a team must still have their own original picks for the compensation. That means they can’t go out and deal for picks in order to sign a player. Compensation would begin from the 2018 draft, as none of the sheets could be signed until July 1st when these players become free agents. Another small note, is that if a team does decide to match an offer sheet to retain the player they cannot trade him for an entire year afterwards.

Evening Notes: Navy Outdoor Game, #3 Pick, Blue Jackets

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Prior to Gary Bettman’s official league announcement on the news sure to come Monday, it has been revealed by AP’s Steve Whyno that Washington will host Toronto at an outdoor game next season. The affair will take place on March 3, 2018 at the Navy Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. The contest will be the first outdoor affair held at a venue utilized by a branch of the armed forces. Considering the large amount of folks in the greater D.C. area with government employment ties, and the dear respect for veterans around the country, such an arrangement makes a great deal of sense for the National Hockey League. Whether outdoor games are becoming a novelty or not, opportunities such as these are almost certain bets to make money for the league. The Capitals and Maple Leafs are certainly not historic rivals, but both undoubtedly draw revenue.

  • Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman believes the Stars’ Jim Nill is serious about moving the #3 pick. If they decide to do so, he says their focus will assuredly be on acquiring a dynamic defender. The Ducks’ dire injury situation likely takes them out of such discussions temporarily, which leaves Columbus and Minnesota as the most likely trade partners. 30 year-old Jack Johnson is entering the final year of his contract, and 23 year-old Ryan Murray will need to re-negotiate after 2017-18. Murray is obviously more enticing, and the fit is certainly there for a deal’s foundation. However, if neither intrigues the Stars, David Savard could be a target – if GM Jarmo Kekalainen is willing to add. His $4.25 MM salary is reasonable and he is still a young defender with room to improve. It’s difficult to see the Jackets moving on from either Zach Werenski or Seth Jones (so recently acquired). The Wild would likely need to move the dynamic Mathew Dumba or stalwart Jonas Brodin, neither of which seems particularly likely. Marco Scandella simply isn’t going to get the job done, and something substantial would need to be added to Jared Spurgeon for Dallas to accept. Of course, it’s always possible a dark horse team enters the discussions if they really like a player at that drafting position.
  • Speaking of Kekalainen, Friedman also secured some interesting soundbytes from Columbus’ astute manager. He confidently stated that he “expect(s) zero problems (with the cap) next year.” Considering how close the team is to the ceiling, and RFA center Alex Wennberg needing a new contract, there isn’t a ton of room to maneuver. It does seem like a trade could be on the horizon. Offensive flair is their most glaring need at the moment, and they will not be the only team on the hunt for a marquee scorer. There is help on the way from Grade A prospects Pierre-Luc Dubois and Oliver Bjorkstrand, both of whom look physically ready to successfully enter the league next season. Bjorkstrand in particular will be under additional pressure to perform, as this will be the final year as his Entry-Level Contract. The ability of Columbus to draft and develop consistently well has placed them in the enviable position of all-around depth as they look towards future transactions.

Oshie Nearing Deal With Caps

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According to Sportsnet’s John Shannon in an interview on Sirius XM Radio, T.J. Oshie’s agent has all but finalized a deal with the Washington Capitals. Considering that Oshie was a top-three UFA forward heading into this off-season, nearing a signing with cash-strapped Washington comes as a bit of a surprise. Oshie had previously stated his desire to remain in America’s capital city, but players are often pushed out in situations such as these. RFA Evgeny Kuznetsov was obviously going to take precedence over the older Oshie, and allotting him cap dollars seemed to place the writing on the wall for T.J.

If he were to return at a discount, it’s difficult to see a player of his caliber making anywhere under $5 MM on a multi-year deal. Perhaps he does less to accommodate his team’s management, but it is quite rare that we see a player take a paycut of more than a million or so. What must be considered is that this is also the crafty Oshie’s opportunity to cash in financially on a career year. It was indeed his fourth straight season breaking 50 points, but only his first with over 30 goals. A lot of that has to do with his unsustainable season shooting percentage of 23.1%, an absurd figure for any player. As an offensive force in an exceptionally poor UFA summer, his value is likely never to be higher.

For the Capitals, if they are able to accommodate him in their internal structure, it would mean quite a few changes coming elsewhere in the lineup. Karl Alzner would be all but guaranteed to move on from the organization, and Kuznetsov’s negotiations may become more heated in hopes of driving price down. Justin Williams was already nearly assured to be on his way to a bidding war in free agency, but this development would virtually secure that fate. It could also imply that a trade of a bigger contract is under consideration by the organization, although the rumblings of potential transactions have thus far been mere conjecture. GM Brian MacLellan will certainly have some shuffling ahead if he hopes to ice a balanced team before next season.

Expansion Primer: Vancouver Canucks

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Vancouver Canucks head into this offseason with a goal unfamiliar to fans of the team: rebuild. It’s been 16 seasons since the Sedin twins made their debuts, and in that period the Canucks have made the playoffs 11 times. Now aged 36, the duo are on a rapid decline and will now try to help the team find a new set of core players. At the deadline, the Canucks sold for the first time in many years, sending Jannik Hansen and Alex Burrows off for prospects.

Despite finishing second-last in the league, the team will select fifth in this year’s entry draft, thanks to the ping-pong balls at the draft lottery. Fifth was where they selected last year as well, picking Olli Juolevi from the OHL’s London Knights; the same place they unearthed budding-star Bo Horvat a few years prior. Now heading into the expansion draft they have few issues but many options, which will be examined below.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Daniel Sedin (NMC), Henrik Sedin (NMC), Loui Eriksson (NMC), Brandon Sutter, Derek Dorsett, Sven Baertschi, Markus Granlund, Jayson Megna, Reid Boucher, Michael Zalewski, Joseph Cramarossa, Bo Horvat, Michael Chaput, Brendan Gaunce

Defensemen:

Alexander Edler, Chris Tanev, Luca Sbisa, Andrey Pedan, Alex Biega, Tom Nilsson, Erik Gudbranson

Goaltenders:

Jacob Markstrom, Richard Bachman

Notable Exemptions

Jonathan Dahlen, Brock Boeser, Jake Virtanen, Nikolay Goldobin, Troy Stecher, Jordan Subban, Olli Juolevi, Griffen Molino, Thatcher Demko

Key Decisions

While it would be hard to imagine the Canucks exposing the Sedins in the expansion draft simply because of what they have meant to the franchise over their careers, the team won’t even have to worry about it. Both the twins and Eriksson have no-movement clauses and will automatically receive protection slots, leaving the team with just four forward choices. Brendan Gaunce

What that means is likely exposure of Gaunce, just a few years removed from being selected in the first round. Gaunce spent most of the season with the Canucks for the first time in his career, but still wasn’t able to contribute much offensively. Registering just five points in 57 games, he hasn’t been able to convert his size and hockey IQ into much scoring, though at just 23 he still has time.  Gaunce is the kind of player Vegas could very well target, hoping to find some upside in a young player that hasn’t shown it yet.

There is also Dorsett, who missed most of this season after neck surgery but has been an effective bottom-six player over his career. If he’s set to be healthy by next season he could bring a veteran voice to the young Vegas club, and protect any youngsters in the lineup. The Canucks actually may hope Dorsett is picked, just to rid themselves of his $2.65MM cap hit while they turn around their team.

On defense, the Canucks will have to choose between Sbisa and Gudbranson if they don’t make a trade before the draft. GM Jim Benning paid a hefty price to bring Gudbranson in, dealing Jared McCann for the former third-overall pick last summer. Gudbranson missed most of the season following wrist surgery and has been the whipping-boy for much of the analytical movement due to his poor possession numbers, but still represents a solid NHL defender with some upside.

Luca SbisaSbisa on the other hand logged 19 minutes a night and was one of only three players (along with the Sedins) to dress for every single game this season. He is a former first-round pick himself, but has never quite seemed to live up to the potential his excellent skating ability had showed early on. He’s two years older than Gudbranson, and is an unrestricted free agent after this season (Gudbranson is an RFA this summer).

In net, Markstrom will be the protected party as Miller is set to hit free agency. Markstrom’s new three-year extension kicks in this season and will pay him $3.67MM to be the Canucks’ starting goaltender. Whether he fills that role long-term is still yet to be decided, but there is no doubt he’ll come out of the expansion draft unscathed.

As far as free agents that Vegas could target in their early window, the Canucks don’t have much of interest. Miller is really the only one that has much value on the open market, and with the amount of goaltending options Vegas has available to them he doesn’t seem much of a fit.

Projected Protection List

F Daniel Sedin (NMC)
F Henrik Sedin (NMC)
F Loui Eriksson (NMC)
F Brandon Sutter
F Sven Baertschi
F Markus Granlund
F Bo Horvat

D Alexander Edler
D Chris Tanev
D Erik Gudbranson

G Jacob Markstrom

As always, there is the chance that Vancouver makes a deal to help out their situation before the draft, perhaps moving Tanev as has been rumored lately. They could also talk one of their older Swedes into waiving a no-movement clause in order to protect Gaunce or another forward, though that would put them at risk of selection as all three still have upside and name recognition. This might not be the worst outcome for the team in Eriksson’s case, after his disastrous season in the first year of his six-year, $36MM deal. He’ll turn 32 this summer, and likely won’t be much help to the team when they’re ready to compete again.

In all, the Canucks don’t find themselves in a horrible position, but losing one of Gaunce or Sbisa for nothing isn’t a perfect scenario. There are many ways they could avoid it, including making a side deal with Vegas to have them select a different player that may not be as beneficial. Vegas GM George McPhee has already admitted several teams have contacted him about this method, and he’s willing to listen if it provides his team with an asset.

This list could change drastically by next season, but with the majority of their young talent ineligible to be taken, the Canucks will continue their rebuild as planned this summer.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Metro Division Snapshots: Capitals, Darling, McLeod

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Big changes are expected this summer in D.C. after the Washington Capitals once again failed to advance beyond the second round of the postseason, despite boasting perhaps the most talented roster ever assembled in the organization’s 42-year history. Even if GM Brian MacLellan wanted to return the roster mostly intact, he would have a difficult time doing so given the team’s salary cap situation. It’s along this vein that Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post examines potential free agent and trade fits to replace the players the Capitals may lose off their President’s Trophy winning roster.

T.J. Oshie, coming off a career high 33-goal season, will be a UFA this summer and while the Capitals would like to re-sign the winger, doing so may prove hard to do, according to Khurshudyan. The scribe writes that Oshie is due for a significant raise on his $4.5MM 2016-17 cap charge, and suggests a long-term deal in the $6MM annual range is reasonable. Khurshudyan notes that both Kyle Okposo and David Backes, two players with similar profiles and historical production to Oshie, inked free agent deals with cap hits of $6MM last summer. If that should prove to be too rich for MacLellan’s blood, the team could pivot back to Justin Williams, who is coming off a two-year deal with the Capitals worth $3.25MM per year. Andre Burakovsky, a RFA, is expected to graduate to a full-time top-six role and the duo of Williams and Burakovsky could be good enough for Washington to get by. In terms of outside free agents Khurshudyan lists Drew Stafford and Patrick Eaves as potentially inexpensive fits, though at 31 and 33 respectively, each is on the back-half of their careers and would represent a risky proposition. As it is, Stafford netted just eight goals in 58 games in 2016-17. Eaves notched a career high 32 goals, besting his previous best by 12 and suggesting heavy regression is likely.

On the blue line, both Karl Alzner and trade deadline pickup Kevin Shattenkirk will head to free agency. Khurshudyan expects both to depart for greener pastures and speculates that Nate Schmidt will likely assume a role next to John Carlson on the team’s top pair next season. That leaves a hole on the third pairing with Brooks Orpik. Internal candidates, according to the scribe, include Taylor Chorney along with prospects Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos. The free agent market is thin at the position, though veteran defender Johnny Oduya could represent one option, according to the author.

On the trade front, Khurshudyan mentions recent reports that Minnesota would be willing to listen to offers for RW Nino Niederreiter, a pending RFA. Coming off a 25-goal season with the Wild, Niederreiter would certainly command a sizable return in any trade, but he would satisfy Washington’s need for a top-six forward and is young enough to fill that role for years to come. Additionally, given the restrictive nature of the expansion draft rules, both the Wild and Anaheim may have to leave a talented young blue liner exposed and could elect to make a trade to secure some value in return. While that may provide Washington with another means with which to add a needed defenseman, many teams in the league will be shopping in the same market and likely have more to offer in return than the Capitals.

Elsewhere in the Metro Division:

  • Scott Darling’s move to Carolina, where it is expected he will be given every chance to be the team’s #1 goalie, is viewed as the 28-year-old netminder’s biggest opportunity at the professional level. For his part, however, Darling sees it as just the next step in a pro career chock full of opportunities, writes Luke DeCock of The News & Observer. As DeCock notes, Darling has already overcome a drinking problem which nearly sunk his career before it ever even got started, and has worked his way up the pro ranks all the way from the SPHL up to where he is today; the presumptive starter for a young Carolina team hoping to contend for a playoff spot next season. It’s been a lengthy process for Darling but his approach finally appears to be paying off. “It’s kind of been my thing to just saw the wood in front of you, and just keep working toward the next step.” The “wood” in front of him is the high expectations that he will have to shoulder as the new #1 goalie for a team whose recent chances to compete in the postseason have been derailed by poor to mediocre play between the pipes. But given his history, Darling appears well-suited for the challenges that await in Carolina.
  • The New Jersey Devils have high expectations for their 2016 first round draft selection, center Michael McLeod, a skilled offensive talent who starred for Mississauga of the OHL. Chris Ryan of NJ Advance Media spoke with Paul Castron, the team’s Director of Amateur Scouting, about McLeod’s progress one year after the team made the 6-foot-2, 194-pound pivot the 12th overall pick in the draft. After impressing team brass at the Devils developmental and training camps last summer, McLeod struggled during the first couple of months of the OHL season, writes Ryan, though Castron is still high on the prospect: “He’s one of those players where he never lets you down with his work ethic and his speed game is always there, he’s always a factor. I think he was just frustrated early in the season for not producing at a higher rate. The team as a whole really struggled, and I think he felt a lot of pressure because he was captain, too, and he was their leader.”  McLeod would get his game going in the second half of the season, notes Ryan, amassing 46 points over his final 31 contests and leading his team to the OHL Final, recording an impressive 27 points in 20 postseason games along the way. With New Jersey in the midst of an all out rebuild, one buoyed by winning the rights to the first overall choice in the 2017 draft in the NHL’s recent lottery, McLeod’s development will be important to the future success of the organization. It’s possible given the team’s dearth of offensive talent that McLeod could open the year in New Jersey with a strong training camp performance.

 

Afternoon Notes: Chicago, St. Louis, Pittsburgh

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Chicago GM Stan Bowman insists that his firing of assistant coach Mike Kitchen was not a “warning shot” toward head coach Joel Quenneville. He emphasized their strong relationship as GM and coach and will involve Quenneville in the hiring process for insight. Quenneville certainly has a longer leash than most coaches, as he has almost assuredly earned himself in the Hockey Hall of Fame for his 3 championships with the Blackhawks in under a decade. Quenneville was reportedly taken aback by the firing, and there was speculation he was irritated by the move. Bowman will have a difficult task ahead if he hopes to alter his roster in any meaningful way. As noted earlier, their cap situation is incredibly tight.

Whether Quenneville would survive another early playoff exit at this juncture is pure conjecture. After two consecutive disappointments, if the Hawks start off slow, Coach Q could find himself on the hot seat. Bowman has shown in the past that he is quick to change what isn’t working, even if it means moving away from comfort zones.

  • The St. Louis Blues are also dealing with the aftermath of an underwhelming playoff run, report the St. Louis Dispatch. The overhaul last summer didn’t result in the success they were anticipating. Jake Allen was perhaps the lone bright spot in a team performance that saw them be dominated by the lower-seeded Nashville Predators. 20 of their players are under contract for next season, and RFA Colton Parayko is the only expiring contract that will draw major focus from management. GM Doug Armstrong is looking desperately for a bonafide top-six center with the cupboards bare in the prospect department at that position. Re-signing Vladimir Sobotka helps this position, and if Ivan Barbashev could take a step forward it would go a long way. Ultimately, the team is still in a position to compete next season, but will need to fine tune their strategies going forward. A solid draft or trading for a top-tier prospect should be the focus this summer.
  • Penguins fans are currently dealing with a scare, as Patric Hornqvist is not skating with the group on his off-day. The tough winger has been banged and bruised throughout the season and playoffs, the most visible being the swollen mark under his eye from a skate to the face. Whether this is merely a maintenance day or something more long-term is something that remains to be seen, but his loss would be substantial in a tight-checking series. The also ailing Carl Hagelin took his spot in line rushes this afternoon, slotting in alongside Nick Bonino and Conor Sheary on the third unit. Notably, Carter Rowney also did not skate. He had been inserted in Game 7 of the previous series and performed admirably, helping earn his 4th line multiple shifts at the end of Game 1. His surprising speed along with his physicality have gone a long way toward earning him a 4th-line center position next season with the club. Trevor Daley is supposedly still progressing, but did not take the ice with the team. Considering how many injuries the Penguins are already dealing with, every new bit of bad news is magnified.     UPDATE: Hornqvist and Rowney took “maintenance days” while Daley apparently did take the ice on his own.

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