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Artturi Lehkonen

Arbitration Breakdown: Brock McGinn

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

Brock McGinn of the Carolina Hurricanes was the first arbitration filing to become public this off-season and fittingly landed an early hearing date. Barring a last-minute settlement, in less than 24 hours he will also be the first player to go through the arbitration process this summer. Here is a closer look at his case:

The Case of Brock McGinn

Career Statistics: 240 games played, 36 goals, 40 assists, 76 points, -27 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points, +10 rating

Filing Numbers: McGinn – One year, $2.7MM, Hurricanes – One year, $1.75MM (midpoint: $2.225MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Regular Contributor: played in all 82 games in platform season, 162 of last 164; top-nine Hurricanes forward in ATOI, points, and shots in platform season
  • Key Defensive Player: led Hurricanes forwards in shorthanded ATOI; among top-four Hurricanes forwards in plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, and takeaways

Potential Comparable Players:

Scott Laughton (2019)
Career Statistics: 272 games played, 31 goals, 48 assists, 79 points, -24 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 12 goals, 20 assists, 32 points, -11 rating
Salary: $2.3MM

  • Player’s argument: better career points per game, better career total goals, better platform plus/minus
  • Team’s counter: Laughton had better platform season, Laughton is better defensive player, Laughton’s salary reflects a premium for center position

Zack Kassian (2017)
Career Statistics: 313 games played, 45 goals, 53 assists, 98 points, -21 rating
Platform Statistics: 79 games played, 7 goals, 17 assists, 24 points, +4 rating
Salary: $1.95MM

  • Player’s argument: better platform, higher points per game career, more consistent goal scorer, better defensive numbers
  • Team’s counter: similar points per game career, Kassian had close to full season more experience

Team Side

Themes:

  • Fourth-line forward: outside top-nine Hurricanes forwards in even strength ATOI, no role on the power play
  • Not a reliable goal scorer: low shooting percentage (8.1% platform, 9.4% career), tied for 12th among Hurricanes forwards in goals per game; no game-winning goals or overtime goals in regular season
  • Regression: goals, points, shooting percentage, ATOI all down in platform season from year prior

Potential Comparable Players:

Joel Armia (2019)
Career Statistics: 237 games, 39 goals, 42 assists, 81 points, -3 rating
Platform Statistics: 57 games, 13 goals, 10 assists, 23 points, even rating
Salary: $2.6MM

  • Team’s argument: Armia has better career points per game, Armia has far better platform, similar defensive numbers
  • Player’s counter: better career-high goals, better physical game

Artturi Lehkonen (2019)
Career Statistics: 221 games, 41 goals, 39 assists, 80 points, -2 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games, 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points, +10 rating
Salary: $2.4MM

  • Team’s argument: Lehkonen has better career and platform points per game, Lehkonen has better career and platform goals, Lehkonen has more consistent offensive numbers, similarly low shooting percentage – Lehkonen more involved offensively, similar defensive numbers
  • Player’s counter: different styles of player – Lehkonen far less physical, Lehkonen’s career and platform numbers inflated by substantially more ice time

Prediction

This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, the Carolina Hurricanes have a stronger case with the comparable players available than does Brock McGinn. Expect a potential decision to be in the $2-2.2MM range.

Montreal Canadiens Agree To Terms With Artturi Lehkonen

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After extending Joel Armia earlier today, the Montreal Canadiens have announced they’ve come to terms with Artturi Lehkonen on a new two-year contract. The deal will carry an average annual value of $2.4MM but unlike Armia, will leave Lehkonen as a restricted free agent in 2021.

Lehkonen, 24 (despite what the press release says), still hasn’t been able to quite replicate the 18 goals he recorded as a rookie in 2016-17, but was still a valuable part of the Canadiens’ attack last season. Setting a career-high with 31 points in 82 games, Lehkonen also increased his physical play and became a key part of the penalty kill. At his best when lined up against the opponent’s top scorers, Lehkonen can be an unrelenting forechecking presence when he wants to be. While he may still face some of the inconsistency issues that many young forwards do, there’s also still real upside if given a more offensive role down the line.

That offensive role is likely what he has his sights set on as he signs for just two seasons, hoping to make even more on his next deal after a breakout year. The question is whether he’ll get that opportunity with other forwards like Jonathan Drouin and Tomas Tatar eating up the offensive zone time and powerplay chances. Still, for the Canadiens his value is obvious as a middle-six player capable of lining up against anyone on the other team and contributing some secondary scoring. A $2.4MM cap hit is more than reasonable for the team using him in this role, especially given the goal-scoring upside he’s shown in the past.

Montreal now has just Charles Hudon and Michael McCarron left to sign as restricted free agents, and close to $6MM to do so (based on a 23-man roster). That leaves them more than enough wiggle room to continue searching the free agent market for an upgrade or take on salary in a trade.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Montreal Canadiens

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Montreal Canadiens

Current Cap Hit: $71,687,975 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jesperi Kotkaniemi (three years, $925K)
F Nikita Scherbak (one year, $863K)
D Noah Juulsen (two years, $863K)
F Artturi Lehkonen (one year, $839K)
D Victor Mete (two years, $748K)

Potential Bonuses:

Kotkaniemi: $2.5MM
Juulsen: $425K
Mete: $183K
Scherbak: $175K

Total: $3.28MM

It’s too early to tell if the Canadiens intend to thrust Kotkaniemi onto an NHL roster. Most people feel that the third-overall pick from this year’s draft still needs another year to get bigger and develop his skills, but Montreal is desperate for help at the center position and could consider the 18-year-old to make the leap. Regardless, whether he comes to the NHL now of in the near future, the team does have a franchise center they can look forward to placing into the top-six soon.

Mete had a turbulent rookie season after surprising many by making the team out of training camp. The 20-year-old was brought in to complement Weber due to his speed and puckhandling skills, but he struggled at times and eventually was moved out of the top four and was almost sent back to juniors. In the end, the youngster played 49 games, but with a year of experience under his belt, he is expected to take on a top-four role this season. Juulsen is another solid prospect who should get some time, although more likely in a third-pairing situation.

Scherbak could be the most interesting player. The 22-year-old was a point-a-game player with the Laval Rocket in the AHL, but when recalled to Montreal, he was immediately injured and wasn’t able to capitalize on his opportunity. Scherbak didn’t get the minutes once he returned, scoring four goals in 26 games. However, he might get a chance to gain a regular role this year if he can make a strong impression in camp this year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Max Pacioretty ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Tomas Plekanec ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Joel Armia ($1.85MM, RFA)
F Paul Byron ($1.17MM, UFA)
D Jordie Benn ($1.1MM, UFA)
G Antti Niemi ($950K, UFA)
D Mike Reilly ($725K, RFA)
D Xavier Ouellet ($700K, RFA)
F Charles Hudon ($650K, UFA)

Much has been said about Pacioretty over the past few months and even in the past week, but as of now, it looks like the 29-year-old is going to end up back on the first line, barring a trade. The team captain is coming off a disappointing 17-goal season after five straight years of 30-goal campaigns (not including the strike-shortened season in 2012-13). The team will have to determine whether they believe last year’s season was a fluke or whether he’s beginning to decline. The team has already committed to several major contracts and adding another one could be detrimental to a team who should rebuild. If he can prove his value with a bounce back season, the team may look to lock him up.

The 35-year-old Plekanec returns after the team traded him away at the trade deadline. He lacks the offense from the old days, but Plekanec still provides an excellent presence as a bottom-six center who has the experience and solid face-off skills, although his six goals and 20 assists is a career low. Byron is coming off a pair of 20-goal seasons for the Canadiens, but is expected to miss part of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery in April. However, the 29-year-old has to prove that he can continue his goal-scoring ways.

The team hopes to get a boost from Armia, who came over when the Canadiens took on Steve Mason’s contract from Winnipeg. The 25-year-old got a full season in with a loaded Jets roster and tallied 12 goals and 29 points. With a bigger role in Montreal, he could become a solid 20-goal scorer. The remainder of players will have to prove their value if they want to come back.

Two Years Remaining

F Max Domi ($3.15MM, RFA)
D David Schlemko ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Matthew Peca ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Nicolas Deslauriers ($950K, UFA)
F Jacob de La Rose ($900, UFA)

The Canadiens gave up a quality player in Alex Galchenyuk in order to acquire Domi. The highly-touted winger has struggled in the NHL over the past couple of years and it probably isn’t a good sign that the Arizona Coyotes gave up on the 23-year-old already, suggesting they didn’t feel that he was going to contribute to their team this year. After a impressive rookie season in which he scored 18 goals and 52 points, he has failed to break double-digits in goals in each of the past two seasons since then. Regardless, Montreal is ready to hand him top-six minutes to prove his value and show that he’s better than Arizona thought he was.

Schlemko provides the team with another depth defenseman, but likely isn’t going to play top-four minutes for the team, while the team has high hopes that Deslauriers can duplicate a 10-goal season on the team’s energy line.

Three Years Remaining

D Jeff Petry ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Brendan Gallagher ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Phillip Danault ($3.08MM, UFA)
G Charlie Lindgren ($750K, UFA)

While many players had down years, Gallagher was the bright spot for the Canadiens as the 26-year-old broke the 30-goal mark last season for the first time and has established himself as top right wing on the team. It was a big improvement from his injury-riddled 10-goal campaign the previous year. Suddenly, at $3.75MM over the next three years, his contract is likely the best value on the team. The team also gave Danault a solid three-year extension. The 25-year-old only had eight goals and 25 points, but would be a more ideal third-line center. Unfortunately, with a hole at the second-line center, Danault has been thrust into a role he wasn’t ready for. We’ll see if he can handle that same role this season.

The team is paying a lot of money for Petry, who is one of the team’s most experienced defenseman with the injury to Weber, and the veteran should be able to handle the No. 1 duties for the time being. The 30-year-old blueliner showed off some offensive skills last year, posting a career-high 12 goals and 42 points.

Four Or More Years Remaining

G Carey Price ($10.5MM through 2025-26)
D Shea Weber ($7.86MM through 2025-26)
F Jonathan Drouin ($5.5MM through 2022-23)
D Karl Alzner ($4.63MM through 2021-22)
F Andrew Shaw ($3.9MM through 2021-22)

The timing of Price’s poor season could have been better after the team extended the netminder last offseason. Now after a major drop off in performance after many felt he was the best goaltender in the world, the $10.5MM deal that kicks in this season, suddenly looks quite undesirable. After a season in which he posted a 2.23 GAA and a .923 save percentage in 62 games, Price struggled with injuries and struggled all year behind Montreal’s weakened blueline. He put up a 3.11 GAA and a .900 save percentage in 49 games. The question is which Price will come back this year? If he can bounce back and perform even close to his 2016-17 statistics, that contract wouldn’t look to be quite as bad.

Unfortunately, Weber’s contract is another story. The 33-year-old blueliner still has eight years left on his contract, only managed to play 26 games last season after he was forced to undergo surgery on a torn tendon in his foot and now is expected to miss a large chunk of the season with the possibility of returning in mid-December. While a dominant defenseman when healthy, one has to wonder whether a major foot injury may alter the impact that Weber makes for the rest of his career, considering his advancing age and the way that speed has taken the league over recently. Whether the team can keep him on the ice for another year or two, let alone eight, will be something to closely monitor.

The team has high expectations will be able to bounce back after his struggles to adapt to the center position. Drouin will continue to play there this season and with a full season of experience and a chance to train there in the preseason, Drouin should be much more comfortable, centering the team’s top line. The third-overall pick from the 2013 draft, Drouin has all the talent to make the adjustment and give the team a top-six center. However, his numbers took a hit with the change in positions as he managed just 13 goals and 46 points on the year. The team also has high expectations that Alzner, the team’s big free-agent signing a year ago, will bounce back as well. The veteran defenseman had trouble getting integrated with his new team as well as having to deal with the expectations that came with the contract he signed. However, with a year of experience, he should be able to settle into top-four role this season.

Buyouts

G Mason ($1.37MM through 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Gallagher
Worst Value: Weber

(Excluding entry-level contracts)

Looking Ahead

The team has all the contracts of a team trying to rebuild with youth. Unfortunately, it also has two contracts that are going to weigh down the franchise for eight more years, which is a long time, especially when some of the young players begin to develop and will need new contracts of their own. While the contract of Price might not seem as bad if the veteran goaltender can rebound, it’s likely that Weber’s deal will be a major albatross and it’s way too early to even consider trading that contract or buying it out. Regardless, the team needs to rebuild despite their strange salary cap situation. The addition of Kotkaniemi, regardless of when he arrives to the team, is a start to the rebuild, even if the team won’t acknowledge that’s what they’re doing.

Canadiens And Galchenyuk Face Difficult Negotiations

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There is a great deal of uncertainty in Montreal after a disappointing first round exit, where they struggled to score goals with consistency. The issues at center ice continue to haunt the organization. Thomas Plekanec has slowed down with age and could easily find himself exposed in the expansion draft, if not traded away later in the season. They need Alex Galchenyuk to become a bonafide top-six (if not #1) center. And yet, this past season, he struggled mightily down the stretch. His 2-year bridge deal is now expired and the RFA will need to come to terms with the Montreal franchise which has expressed quite a bit of frustration with his play.

Arbitration is certainly an option for Galchenyuk. The player’s agent, Pat Brisson is certainly willing to negotiate a one-year deal, but will the Canadiens want to risk Alex having a career year and skyrocketing his cost? That decision could be unwise tactically on the part of management. Ryan Spzorger of The Hockey Writers believes that the Canadiens would be foolish to pass up the opportunity to sign the potential number-one center long term. Especially after a relatively “down” season, Galchenyuk could be signed to a relative bargain, keeping the Canadiens’ cap structure reasonable for years to come.

There are two major issues which could cause negotiations to stall. First, there is a definite gap in perceived value between the player and the organization. The Canadiens have repeatedly dropped Galchenyuk down the lineup, with the player seeing the third line these playoffs alongside the likes of Andrew Shaw and Artturi Lehkonen. Fellow 23 year-old Phillip Danault usurped his spot on the top line, and the mediocre Tomas Plekanec leapfrogged him as well. His defensive play has been the subject of constant criticism, both under current coach Claude Julien as well as former coach Michel Therrien. Second, he has continually been shuffled from wing to center and back again. Players who have played the majority of their career up the middle don’t often appreciate the shift, nor react well to it. Although Galchenyuk has obviously been frustrated with the situation, he has tried his best to adapt to a foreign position on the left side, to little success.

Galchenyuk’s value as a trade piece shouldn’t be understated if the gap between the negotiating parties is too great. GM Marc Bergevin could be tempted to move him for a more “established” center if the offers from other teams increase in frequency. In the end, it seems likely that the parties will compromise on a short-term contract somewhere in the range of $5-6 MM. This would provide Galchenyuk further incentive to perform and gives Montreal an “out” if he continues to regress. A year removed from a 30 goal, 56 point season, it would be a mistake to not include Galchenyuk as part of the Canadiens’ future plans.

Atlantic Notes: Soshnikov, Melnyk, White

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Maple Leafs fans will see Eric Fehr in action for the first time tonight when they take on the Columbus Blue Jackets according to Kristen Shilton of TSN. The veteran forward will draw into the lineup for his first game since being acquired at the deadline from the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for Frank Corrado. He will be taking the place of Nikita Soshnikov, the young winger who was involved in multiple incidents in Monday’s game against the Boston Bruins.

Soshnikov first got under the skin of Bruins’ players and fans alike when he sent Patrice Bergeron into the boards head first with a crosscheck across the back, earning him just a two minute penalty (which Bergeron would match when he got up and went after the Leafs’ winger). Later in the game he took a hard hit from Zdeno Chara that seemed to rattle him, as he was seen rubbing his neck and skating unsteadily for the rest of the game. It was that unsteady nature that caused him to fall when Dominic Moore would collide with him in the dying minutes, giving the Maple Leafs a powerplay that ended up winning the game. There is no word on what the extent of the injury is for Soshnikov, but a concussion would not be out of the question.

Canadiens Place Artturi Lehkonen On IR, Recall Sven Andrighetto

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The Montreal Canadiens announced that they have placed left winger Artturi Lehkonen on injured reserve with an upper body injury, meaning he will miss at least a week of action.  The issue likely occurred on Saturday night where the Finnish forward did not play a single shift in the third period against Philadelphia.  In a corresponding move, the team announced the recall of right winger Sven Andrighetto from St. John’s of the AHL.

Lehkonen, a 2013 2nd round pick (55th overall) of the Canadiens, made the opening roster out of training camp and has played in all 12 of their games so far this season, bouncing from the first to third lines.  He has two goals and an assist so far this season with 27 shots on goal, which ranks tied for eighth league-wide among rookies.

As for Andrighetto, he made the team out of camp but was placed on waivers in mid-October and went unclaimed.  He’s off to a strong start in the minors this year with five goals and six assists in ten games.  The Swiss winger has 56 NHL games under his belt in his career – including 44 last season – with nine goals and eleven assists.

[Related: Canadiens Depth Chart]

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