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What Market Will Markov Attract?

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The market for Andrei Markov could be lukewarm or quite heated, and no one really seems to know which. Canadiens’ GM Marc Bergevin has been tight-lipped about his impending free agents, but it’s fair to assume he’ll have some interest in re-signing the Russian defender. That said, the cap situation for Montreal is not simple, and re-signing the dynamic unrestricted free-agent Alexander Radulov will likely take priority. The Habs also need to negotiate a contract with RFA Alex Galchenyuk, attempt to dump Tomas Plekanec’s salary, survive the expansion draft, and round out their forward corps. With Jordie Benn and Jeff Petry already looking to assume larger roles next season, Markov could easily slip through the cracks.

The 38 year-old earned a hefty $5.75 MM last season, but had reasonable production with 6 goals and 30 assists. His advanced possession numbers tell a tale, however, as he took a massive leap forward from the previous season, hitting a solid 54.0% Corsi For. His ice-time saw a slight drop (2:00 less per game), but he’s still seeing top-four minutes. Markov moves the puck well and is a power-play guru with a hard, accurate shot. He’s been the assistant captain on the Canadiens for many years and has never played in a different NHL city, but he could command a sizable final contract in this year’s complete drought of top-end players. If there ever were a time to cash in, this off-season could be it.

On the free-agent market, only Kevin Shattenkirk clearly outclasses Markov in terms of raw offensive ability from the blueline. A team might want to take a risk on a struggling but younger Michael Del Zotto or Dimitry Kulikov, but ultimately, Markov is the proven commodity. Considering that Markov has never won a championship, one would assume that if he were to leave the province of Quebec, it would be for a contender. There is no shortage of teams that could show interest. He could go to a perennial competitor on the cheap, such as the Blackhawks, or could opt for a squad like the Blue Jackets who are on the cusp of true contention. Where he lands is anyone’s guess at the moment,  but it’s fair to expect he will make a positive impact wherever he does.

Should The Rangers Buyout Girardi Or Staal?

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The New York Rangers are a team that is likely to make a buyout this off-season on the blueline. With $22.025 MM spent on the back-end, the team has expected far better results. Long past are the days where the Rangers were among the best defensive squads in the league. Both Dan Girardi and Marc Staal have drastically underperformed, as both have been burned consistently to the net. With the team potentially looking to re-sign defenseman Brendan Smith and certainly hoping to add some offensive punch to their top-nine, it seems inevitable that one of the two will find their way out of town. The trade value for both is minimal, and GM Jeff Gorton would need to execute some serious magic to unload either without a mass of sweeteners in a deal.

The biggest argument against buying out Staal is that his contract runs for a year longer. Buyouts count as cap penalties (the amount varying depending on a multitude of factors), but always for twice the amount of years of the original contract.  Staal has 4 years remaining on his contract, while Girardi only has 3 – consequently, the Rangers would take a hit in “dead space” for 8 years for the former but only 6 for the latter. That may not seem like a hugely important factor, but neither of these players is performing at an AHL level quite yet – they merely are nowhere near worth their contracts. According to CapFriendly, a Girardi buyout would be structured as $2.6 – $3.6 – $3.6 – $1.1 – $1.1 – $1.1  (in MM), whereas a Staal buyout would be structured as $2.1 – $2.1  – $3.1 – $3.9 – $1.4 – $1.4 -$1.4 – $1.4 (in MM). Many teams opt to ride out a final year with a struggling veteran than eat cap dollars for 2 whole seasons. Cap dollars truly matter, and every year you pay for a mistake is a potential lost opportunity at a deadline. Playing a player to not play whatsoever until 2025 is nothing short of drastic.

The biggest argument for buying out Girardi is, simply put, his play. His possession numbers were far worse – 44.0% vs Staal’s 46.6% Corsi For. They both had a similar number of giveaways, 47 versus 46, but Girardi had far fewer takeaways. Girardi also didn’t have what could be categorized as an anomalous season – he’s hasn’t been a positive possession player since he broke into the league. His lowest totals are also far worse than Staal’s, which implies his floor is far lower. Girardi seems slightly slower, although neither is a speedster, but he seems to take more of a physical beating on a nightly basis – which, to be fair, has a great deal to due with quality of competition. It could also easily be argued that Staal had an abysmal playoffs, which should always be a determinant factor.

Ultimately, both players are in the unenviable position of earning too much on the backend of their careers. Girardi, 33, and Staal, 30, simply aren’t in their primes as defensive defensemen. The game takes a toll on shot-blocking, physical players. There is the distinct possibility that either could rebound in a new environment, and have simply worn out their welcome in the Big Apple. But the Rangers would be unwise to gamble on both struggling players to return to their former selves. If only for cap-related reasons, Girardi would be the wiser choice to buyout.

Evening Notes: Beauchemin, Tocchet, MacKinnon

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According to Adrian Dater, it seems likely that Francois Beauchemin will not be bought out by the Colorado Avalanche. His contract is for $4.5 MM and only has one season remaining. He is 37 and signed the contract after his 35th birthday according to CapFriendly, which does make a potential buyout less worthwhile. On 35+ contracts, the team does not receive a cap benefit from a buyout, so the move would be made for other reasons. A buyout would have opened up a roster spot for a younger player and perhaps allowed them to accelerate the re-build. More importantly, it would have allowed Sakic to keep an extra young defender protected, such as Mark Barberio, in the upcoming expansion draft. Beauchemin could be asked to waive his No-Movement Clause, but there has been no indication that has been done.

A standard buyout doesn’t seem to be worth the hassle to GM Joe Sakic, so he will look to either move him for a low pick before expansion, or merely ride out the last season with the veteran. All told, Beauchemin’s stats weren’t all that terrible for a team who finished dead last in the standings. He actually performed noticeably better in possession stats than the season prior, hitting 47.9% Corsi For after a dreadful 43.4% in 2015-16. His plus/minus of -14 was actually better than any other defenseman, excluding Erik Johnson who missed half the season. His point production obviously took a hit, and he lost a step in speed, but with only one year remaining and the Avalanche facing larger issues, Sakic might be wise to turn complete attention to the trade market and drafting with the #4 pick.

  • Rick Tocchet is one of, if not the hottest, name on the coaching market right now. His work on the Penguins’ bench has been commended by many in Pittsburgh, and multiple teams with coaching vacancies have already hinted at their interest. The Buffalo Sabres in particular seem quite high on him. According to Dan Rosen, however, Tocchet’s phone has been remained quiet as his team advanced to the finals. Other organizations have put their pursuit of his talents on hold, as they are allowing him to perform his duties for the Penguins squad in the finals. Tocchet struggled in Tampa Bay as a head coach before landing the assistant position in Pittsburgh under then-coach Mike Johnston. He was a vocal critic of the special teams and handling of stars as a continual radio guest in the Pittsburgh area, before getting the recommendation from owner Mario Lemieux. He survived the cleansing of the coaching staff when Johnston was fired, and has thrived in his new role under Mike Sullivan. His ability to communicate effectively with talented players and coordinate plays have been the most appreciated in Steel City.
  • Another note on Sakic and the Avalanche – on Friday, when TSN created its “Top 30 Trade BaitBoard”, Nathan MacKinnon found himself included. While nothing should be out of the question for a team that finished 30th overall and with only 49 points, MacKinnon appears to be the only true untouchable on the team. Nothing short of an absurd overpayment would pry him out of Denver, as his value to that team is greater than to any of the other 29 organizations. The 21 year old only posted 16 goals last season, but the entire team was dreadful, and Nathan is a safe bet to rebound. Anything is possible, but in all likelihood he is the forward around which the rest of the team will be built. When the team drafts at #4 in this year’s draft, it will be with his needs at least partially in mind.

Canadiens And Galchenyuk Face Difficult Negotiations

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There is a great deal of uncertainty in Montreal after a disappointing first round exit, where they struggled to score goals with consistency. The issues at center ice continue to haunt the organization. Thomas Plekanec has slowed down with age and could easily find himself exposed in the expansion draft, if not traded away later in the season. They need Alex Galchenyuk to become a bonafide top-six (if not #1) center. And yet, this past season, he struggled mightily down the stretch. His 2-year bridge deal is now expired and the RFA will need to come to terms with the Montreal franchise which has expressed quite a bit of frustration with his play.

Arbitration is certainly an option for Galchenyuk. The player’s agent, Pat Brisson is certainly willing to negotiate a one-year deal, but will the Canadiens want to risk Alex having a career year and skyrocketing his cost? That decision could be unwise tactically on the part of management. Ryan Spzorger of The Hockey Writers believes that the Canadiens would be foolish to pass up the opportunity to sign the potential number-one center long term. Especially after a relatively “down” season, Galchenyuk could be signed to a relative bargain, keeping the Canadiens’ cap structure reasonable for years to come.

There are two major issues which could cause negotiations to stall. First, there is a definite gap in perceived value between the player and the organization. The Canadiens have repeatedly dropped Galchenyuk down the lineup, with the player seeing the third line these playoffs alongside the likes of Andrew Shaw and Artturi Lehkonen. Fellow 23 year-old Phillip Danault usurped his spot on the top line, and the mediocre Tomas Plekanec leapfrogged him as well. His defensive play has been the subject of constant criticism, both under current coach Claude Julien as well as former coach Michel Therrien. Second, he has continually been shuffled from wing to center and back again. Players who have played the majority of their career up the middle don’t often appreciate the shift, nor react well to it. Although Galchenyuk has obviously been frustrated with the situation, he has tried his best to adapt to a foreign position on the left side, to little success.

Galchenyuk’s value as a trade piece shouldn’t be understated if the gap between the negotiating parties is too great. GM Marc Bergevin could be tempted to move him for a more “established” center if the offers from other teams increase in frequency. In the end, it seems likely that the parties will compromise on a short-term contract somewhere in the range of $5-6 MM. This would provide Galchenyuk further incentive to perform and gives Montreal an “out” if he continues to regress. A year removed from a 30 goal, 56 point season, it would be a mistake to not include Galchenyuk as part of the Canadiens’ future plans.

Expansion Primer: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

With the Penguins up two games to zero in the Stanley Cup Finals, the team’s success under the guidance of GM Jim Rutherford cannot be understated. Potential back-to-back championships following a long list of playoff disappointments and identity crises would all but erase the sting of many poor management decisions under former GM Ray Shero.

After the acquisition of Phil Kessel, the team has not looked back in the slightest offensively. They sat out and relished their summer last off-season with minimal movement, but this year Rutherford has decisions to make. Although the makeup of the team will surely be different come October, there are many options to be considered.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Sidney Crosby (NMC), Evgeni Malkin (NMC), Phil Kessel (NMC), Patric Hornqvist, Carl Hagelin, Bryan Rust, Tom Kuhnhackl, Scott Wilson, Josh Archibald (RFA), Oskar Sundqvist (RFA), Jean-Sebastien Dea (RFA)

Defense:

Kris Letang (NMC), Olli Maatta, Ian Cole, Brian Dumoulin (RFA), Derrick Pouliot (RFA), Justin Schultz (RFA), Frank Corrado (RFA), Tim Erixon (RFA), Stuart Percy (RFA)

Goalies:

Marc-Andre Fleury (NMC), Matt Murray

Jake Guentzel, Conor Sheary, Daniel Sprong, Carter Rowney, Tristan Jarry, Zach Aston-Reese, Thomas DiPauli, Teddy Blueger, Dominik Simon,  Jeff Taylor, Ethan Prow, Lukas Bengtsson, Sean Maguire

Key Decisions

To get the elephant in the room cleared aside, it seems a foregone conclusion that Marc-Andre Fleury will waive his No Movement Clause in order for the franchise to protect Matt Murray. This arrangement would suit him, as he performs far better statistically in a starting role, and it allows him to be “the guy” in a new city. If for some unforeseen reason Fleury opts against waiving his NMC, Rutherford will assuredly find a trade elsewhere prior to the expansion draft. At the end of the day, Murray, with two amazing playoff performances at only 23 years-old, is going nowhere.

The other four players who must be protected are those which will not give management any sleepless nights. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are both future hall of famers playing prime hockey, providing great value for their contracts. Kessel, at his reduced rate, has absolutely exceeded expectations when his contract was shipped from Toronto. Kris Letang is the only player who some fans have balked out, as he has missed substantial chunks of time, consistently hitting LTIR and wasting cap dollars. Letang, however, is easily a top-10 defenseman in the league,. Watching how these playoffs have been far less decisive than last for Pittsburgh, there is no doubt the entire organization is willing to take the risk to have him return to the blueline.

The major decision right off the start will be whether Rutherford will decide to go with the 7 forwards-3 defensemen-1 goalie model, or the 8 total protected alternative. It seems apparent that most teams will opt for the former, because it provides protection to two additional players. The Penguins, however, are facing truly unique circumstances, and it seems slightly more likely that they will opt for the latter.

Assuming they go that route to protect their defensive corps (one of Justin Schultz/Olli Maatta), the decision at forward will not be an easy one. Beyond the big three up front who must be protected, there are a few names which could intrigue Vegas. Considering the cost to acquire him (James Neal), and his absolutely pivotal net-front presence, Patrick Hornqvist seems the safest bet to secure protection. Rutherford is a big fan, and many in management have placed a lot of faith in him. The downside of this, of course, is that it would leave Bryan Rust exposed. Rust has already made a name for himself in big games, with multiple game-winning and series-clinching goals. He has the same net-front mentality that Hornqvist does, and is five years his junior. Hornqvist is the more proven offensive commodity, but Rust’s 15 goals and 28 points are nothing to look down upon. In the wake of a potential loss of the hard nosed but unrestricted Chris Kunitz, this would be a painful blow to the team’s physicality. Thankfully, both Conor Sheary and Jake Guentzel are exempt from selection, which helps solidify their top lines regardless of this decision.

The defense if the 4-4-1 model is adopted is quite easy to predict. Although Ian Cole has been a completely perfect shot-blocking minute muncher this playoff run, he is 28 years old and relatively ineffective at driving offense with speed. Assuming that Schultz re-signs and doesn’t command an absolute robbery of a contract, he will be protected. His playoff run has been mostly solid, if spotted with occasional mishap, and his 51 points last season was good for 6th among defenseman in the league, just behind the likes of Dustin Byfuglien and Duncan Keith. That sort of production isn’t easily replaced, and especially considering Letang’s precarious health situation, he is the go-to offensive defenseman in his absence.

Maatta could certainly find himself on the outs, but it’s difficult to imagine him being exposed in the expansion draft. The team showed a great deal of confidence in him by inking him to a 6 year contract after limited sophomore season action, and his contract at $4.083 is certainly manageable. The 23 year-old two-way defender will certainly need to improve his skating to keep up with the high-flying organizational mentality, and there is the possibility his sluggishness has landed him in serious disfavor. If Rutherford were intent on moving on from Maatta, however, it would not be via expansion – he is too valuable a piece to lose for nothing. A trade is certainly a possibility, but the smart money is on the front office praying for a healthy summer of training and improvement for the young Finn.

It is certainly conceivable that the Penguins do opt for the 7-3-1 option, if they truly value Rust more than Schultz or Maatta. This would result in Rust, Scott Wilson, and one of Tom Kuhnhackl, Josh Archibald, and Carl Hagelin to be the additional protect-ees. (Hagelin’s $4 MM contract would likely make him a prime target for sacrifice under this scenario.) Maatta would be the likely claim in this potentiality, as he is less favored internally for purely stylistic reasons when contrasted with Schultz.

However, it seems more likely that Pittsburgh has already worked out a scenario between Fleury, his agent, and Vegas management regarding Marc-Andre Fleury. Rutherford’s lack of panic around the draft last year has led many to believe that this situation has already been handled, and that perhaps a sweetener will be thrown in for not claiming Bryan Rust or a young defenseman.

Projected Protection List

F Sidney Crosby (NMC)
F Evgeni Malkin (NMC)
F Phil Kessel (NMC)
F Patrick Hornqvist

D Kris Letang (NMC)
D Brian Dumoulin
D Justin Schultz
D Olli Maatta

G Matt Murray

If for whatever reason one of Maatta and Schultz is left to dry in the place of this prediction, the re-signing of Trevor Daley and perhaps even Ron Hainsey would likely follow suit. The loss of Rust would be difficult to sustain on an emotional level, as he has been a leader for the younger Wilkes-Barre call-ups since last season. But with young players like Zach Aston-Reese and Daniel Sprong looking to claim a roster spot in training camp next season, his offensive production would likely be easy to absorb. Ultimately, however, it seems probable that Fleury will be Vegas’ selection. Following his impressive resurgence in the first two round of the playoffs, and his difficult situation in Pittsburgh behind the legendary Matt Murray, it seems a fit that would work for all parties involved.

Shane Doan Era Nearing Conclusion

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Although it’s certainly not the biggest issue Arizona management will face this off-season, it could well be the end of an era for the team. Shane Doan has captained the franchise for the last 14 years, but has seen the team reach the franchise reach the conference finals only once. Doan is the rare example of a player who is far more than the sum of his point totals and stat-lines. He’s never broken 80 points, and only hit 30 goals once, but has been a consistent presence – potting a very respectable 972 career points in 1540 career games. This last season, he saw a momentous drop in production, from 28 goals and 47 points in 2015-16 to 6 goals and 27 points this past year. His best years are most certainly behind him, with  his impact on the ice being negligible. Yet, his leadership ability on a young Coyotes squad could be near impossible to replace.

At 40 years old, Doan is the last surviving original Winnipeg Jet. He was an unlikely candidate to outlast his teammates that season. Although he was the youngest player on the team, he was outperformed by fellow rookie Deron Quint and finished a measley 17th in team scoring. He had a strong playoff and found himself shuttled to the deserts of Arizona, where he eventually became captain in 2003-04. The Coyotes have missed the playoffs 11 times under his leadership. And yet with all the difficulties Phoenix/Arizona faced, Doan was the constant face of re-assurance for a worried fanbased, and a consistent performer on an inconsistent squad. His play always remained the same, whether the team was at the bubble of making the playoffs, or 30 points out. His tenacity has been revered around the league, and his on-the-edge play even resulted in a few league suspensions when he crossed the line.

Doan has been pivotal to a team that yet again deeply entrenched in the re-building phase. At 40 years old, it seems unlikely that Doan will return for another season. The Coyotes will be expected by most around the league to finish short of the 8th spot yet again. But the younger players on the team, such as Anthony Duclair, Lawson Crouse, Max Domi, Dylan Strome, Clayton Keller, and Jakob Chychrun, would suffer greatly in their development from his absence. In an off-season where the team is quite likely to also lose 35 year-old Radim Vrbata, there will be a serious vacuum of veteran voices in the Arizona locker room.

Doan would probably see a pay cut from his last paycheck of $3.87 MM per year if he wanted to spend another year in the desert. If he does not don the maroon again, the captaincy and his position as a physical winger will need to be replaced. There are other veteran forwards available for the taking, such as Patrick Eaves and Thomas Vanek, but both players will likely be looking for longer-term deals. Regardless of whether Doan returns or not, his mark on the Coyote franchise will not soon be forgotten, and his influence on the organizational mindset will be felt for years.

Will Hamonic Stay In Brooklyn?

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In an off-season where the Islanders’ primary concerns will be extending John Tavares to quell rumors of his departure at the end of the season, and developing prospects into NHL ready contributors, focus on the blueline should not be overlooked.

Travis Hamonic’s stats aren’t particularly glamorous, with 3 goals and 11 assists through 49 games this past year. His Corsi For % was a career worst at a very unfortunate 43.0%, but many players struggled mightily this season in Brooklyn. He is the assistant captain of the team and his leadership with young players has been particularly important in the wake of losing both Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen a year ago. While Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk have been brilliant in their roles, Hamonic rounds the defense out with a shutdown type. Calvin de Haan has developed well and will contribute after the RFA negotiates his own contract with New York ownership. The potential error going forward is that the Islanders will see Hamonic as relatively expendable, and that could prove a costly mistake. For a franchise trying yet again to find a way back into the playoffs in a brutally competitive Metropolitan Division, losing top-4 defensemen at their lowest value is not acceptable asset management. If Hamonic were indeed dealt, it would presumably be for far less than Taylor Hall, which according to Arthur Staple and Lighthouse Hockey was an offer rejected by GM Garth Snow last off-season.

Hamonic is listed as the #5 prize in this years trade bait list by TSN which is slightly surprising for a relatively unassuming player. The Wild will almost assuredly trade one of Jonas Brodin (#2) or Mathew Dumba (#3) – leaving the Islanders with an enticing stalwart in a league with lots of struggling defensive squads. That said, it’s difficult to imagine a top line talent being the piece coming back. The Islanders’ stockpile of young players is already quite impressive, so established production is imperative. The player would also likely need to be a winger who could play with John Tavares, but he has had difficulty gelling with players in the past. Although Hamonic had a down year, management should view his overall performance with the franchise  rather than drawing conclusions from a tough final season under former coach Jack Capuano. Perhaps the wisest option is to allow Hamonic’s stock to rise again before considering a move.

Finals Notes: Rinne, Hagelin, Fisher

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Pekka Rinne has been quite poor through two contests in Pittsburgh with a horrid save percentage of .778. Headed home, the expectation is that he will get the nod to start Game 3 with a raucous home crowd behind him. But the 21 year-old backup Juuse Saros shouldn’t get his baseball hat fitted quite so securely. Predators coach Peter Laviolette has been known to take massive gambles with his goaltenders come playoffs, and he’s found success while doing it. Back in 2007, Martin Gerber was rightfully scratched in favor of Cam Ward, who had a phenomenal playoff resulting in a Stanley Cup Victory. In 2010, Laviolette benched veteran Brian Boucher to tap AHL journeyman Michael Leighton, who miraculously led the 8th-seeded Flyers to a Game 6 overtime against the Chicago Blackhawks in a Stanley Cup Final. Saros is young, to be sure, and he only has 22 NHL contests under his belt, not counting his minimal relief effort in Pittsburgh. Rinne is a former Vezina winner and by all standards has “earned” the right to start Game 3 in his home barn. That said, Ward only had 28 contests under his belt when Laviolette made him the starter. If Rinne were to somehow find the bench tomorrow, it could complicate his future in Smashville. Rinne only has two years remaining at $7 MM per season, but he has been absolutely central to GM David Poile’s strategy thus far.

  • Carl Hagelin isn’t happy to sit on the sidelines in Pittsburgh, as he was stated in an interview with the Tribune-Review. He’s frustrated with himself and his own performance, after only scoring one goal the entire playoffs and sitting out numerous contests. By all accounts, he has been a team player about the entire situation. He has never fully recovered from a lower-body injury, and the drop off in skating has been noticeable. Hagelin is having quite a different post-season than last, but his struggles didn’t begin in April. He potted only 6 goals and 22 points this season, with a shooting percentage of 4.7%. He looked out of sync with both Nick Bonino and Phil Kessel, and struggled to find his place following his demotion. The speed of Hagelin is still a deadly asset, but his play hasn’t warranted his $4 MM pricetag. When it comes time to protect players, Hagelin could theoretically find himself as a sacrificial lamb for Vegas to claim, with the dual purpose of saving cap dollars.
  • Nashville captain Mike Fisher could be considering retirement following this post-season, according to NBC Sports. He is entering the final year of his contract and will become an unrestricted free agent at the age of 37. He had a solid season in Tennessee, posting 18 goals and 24 assists, an improvement over his prior two outings. He had a rough statistical start to the playoffs, going pointless through three rounds of play although he provided amazing defensive play and special teams expertise. Fisher would most likely take a moderate paycut from his current $4.4 MM to remain in Nashville for at least one more season, but his decision could be impacted by the hectic life of his wife Carrie Underwood. If he opted to retire, it would leave Nashville in a difficult situation of replacing both their leader as well as a #2 center. It seems likely that a deal can be worked out by management, especially in light of Nashville’s lengthy, successful campaign.

Injured Bonino Faces Uncertain Future

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have thus far earned the right to not worry too deeply about the summer and the change it will bring. Although a large portion of the core remains locked up, there are serious questions and the team that takes the ice next year will undoubtedly be short a few familiar faces. One of those players who could be on the way out is third-line center Nick Bonino.

Bonino blocked a shot in Game 2 which appeared to do significant damage, as he limped around until play ceased. He somehow gathered the will to return and finish the contest. He was spotted using crutches and with a walking boot on his left foot today according to AP reports. His determination cannot be understated, as there is a solid possibility he is looking to play through broken bones a la Eric Karlsson. He is a game time decision for tomorrow’s Game 3 according to coach Mike Sullivan. That said, this newest injury is just another factor in a larger contract story for the grizzled center.

Facing unrestricted free agency at the age of 29, and hot off yet another solid post-season, there is a strong possibility this will be the most lucrative contract opportunity of his career. The Penguins will be tight up against the cap, and there can be a reasonable assumption that the organization had hoped to have his position filled internally at this juncture. Although surprising Carter Rowney has admirably filled a role as center/wing utility player, it seems quite unlikely that he will be slotted into that shutdown role. He seems more likely to have the 4th line position next opening night. The still-promising Oskar Sundqvist has had what can only be seen as a setback of a season, performing quite poorly in his 10 NHL games this season. The 6’3″ third-rounder filled Pittsburgh fans with hope with an exceptional training camp in 2015, stealing a spot on the roster before being sent down to Wilkes-Barre. However, he has not looked up to task in spot duty, looking sluggish at times, and easily physically dominated at others. With Bonino’s cap-friendly contract drawing in on a close, and Bonino struggling down the stretch, he flubbed an opportunity to impress anyone with 0 points in limited opportunity.

This creates a difficult situation for the Penguins who would have preferred to replace Bonino with  a cheaper, younger option. With the highly paid Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel, and Kris Letang, allocating the sort of money Bonino will be commanding is a tough pill to swallow. Even worse – the regular season Bonino has been a model of inconsistency. He went long stretches with no offensive production, and looked noticeably slow in his skating for weeks at a time. His 37 points are certainly not negligible, but it is the second season he has faltered at finding his offensive game. Bonino’s defensive prowess and penalty killing bonafides are often understated, as he has consistently matched up against tough competition with relative success. But in a year where the iconic HBK line sees one member scratched and the other unable to produce with the center, it seems difficult to determine that his role going forward. That said, should he need to be replaced, and the other options are not desirable.

If Bonino does opt to test the market, he would be a hot commodity. Joe Thornton and Martin Hanzal are the only two centers that are easily his superior, and the former has expressed the desire to return to San Jose. Bonino will be due a major raise from his $1.9 MM, if only due to his exceptional playoff performances. Versatile centers are highly valued in this league and it will be difficult for the Penguins to commit to him long term in a way that other teams might not find quite so troublesome. If Bonino were to land outside of Pittsburgh, look to Florida and Calgary to be in the conversation to acquire his services.

Oshie Nearing Deal With Caps

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According to Sportsnet’s John Shannon in an interview on Sirius XM Radio, T.J. Oshie’s agent has all but finalized a deal with the Washington Capitals. Considering that Oshie was a top-three UFA forward heading into this off-season, nearing a signing with cash-strapped Washington comes as a bit of a surprise. Oshie had previously stated his desire to remain in America’s capital city, but players are often pushed out in situations such as these. RFA Evgeny Kuznetsov was obviously going to take precedence over the older Oshie, and allotting him cap dollars seemed to place the writing on the wall for T.J.

If he were to return at a discount, it’s difficult to see a player of his caliber making anywhere under $5 MM on a multi-year deal. Perhaps he does less to accommodate his team’s management, but it is quite rare that we see a player take a paycut of more than a million or so. What must be considered is that this is also the crafty Oshie’s opportunity to cash in financially on a career year. It was indeed his fourth straight season breaking 50 points, but only his first with over 30 goals. A lot of that has to do with his unsustainable season shooting percentage of 23.1%, an absurd figure for any player. As an offensive force in an exceptionally poor UFA summer, his value is likely never to be higher.

For the Capitals, if they are able to accommodate him in their internal structure, it would mean quite a few changes coming elsewhere in the lineup. Karl Alzner would be all but guaranteed to move on from the organization, and Kuznetsov’s negotiations may become more heated in hopes of driving price down. Justin Williams was already nearly assured to be on his way to a bidding war in free agency, but this development would virtually secure that fate. It could also imply that a trade of a bigger contract is under consideration by the organization, although the rumblings of potential transactions have thus far been mere conjecture. GM Brian MacLellan will certainly have some shuffling ahead if he hopes to ice a balanced team before next season.

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