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Trade Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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Although we’re less than three months into the season, the trade deadline is already just three weeks away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Nashville Predators.

The Nashville Predators are sellers. In fact, the Predators being ready to gut their roster has been one of the more talked-about storylines of the 2020-21 season. Ask any media personality in hockey and they will say that Nashville is shopping this guy and listening on that guy. It seems that almost anyone on the roster could be available as the Predators have been labeled as disappointments.

Yet, hidden behind the headlines, the outrage level likely isn’t that high internally in Nashville. Quietly, the team is actually playing quite well of late. Since Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman proclaimed last month that there were only three untouchables on the entire Nashville roster, the team has gone 10-7-1 including four wins in a row and wins in six of their past seven. The team is up to .500 on the season and that could be enough to sneak into the postseason in the Central Division’s final spot. In their history, the Predators have never really torn apart their roster and restarted and it seems unlikely that they have the proper motivation to do so now.

With that said, this is still not where the 2017 Western Conference Champions thought they would be at this point in time. The season results have gotten worse each year since their Stanley Cup Final appearance: a second-round exit in 2018, a first-round loss in 2019, and a failure to even advance beyond the qualifying round last year. Now, there is a real possibility that the Predators could miss the playoffs entirely this season. A team loaded with depth and numerous talented veterans, Nashville should be better and it is somewhat inexplicable why they aren’t. As a result, there needs to be a shake-up. However, given the recent improvements, the Predators’ approach to the deadline is likely to be less fire sale and more strategic dealing, especially in a buyer’s market.

Record

17-17-1, .500, T-5th in Central Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$2.46MM in full-season space ($10.97MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, COL 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th
2022: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 7th

Trade Chips

It is probably easier to start with the players who aren’t for sale. As Friedman noted back in February, that definitely includes career Predator goaltender Pekka Rinne, who is in the last year of his contract and quite possibly his career and is being honored with the ability to go out on his own terms (and a No-Movement Clause helps). It also included cornerstone defensemen Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis. At the time, this was the extent of Friedman’s list. He even noted that young defender Dante Fabbro or top scorer Filip Forsberg could be available at the right price. Now, that is almost certainly not the case. Friedman has also since flipped on Ellis’ availability, but he should be safe. Nashville also has no reason to trade young impact players, such as off-season acquisition Luke Kunin, recent first-round pick Eeli Tolvanen, collegiate standouts Rem Pitlick and Jeremy Davies, and impressive goaltender Juuse Saros.

Beyond that group, it probably isn’t a stretch to say that GM David Poile will at least listen to offers for anyone else on the roster. Part of that is due to the Predators’ current situation and the slim likelihood that they can contend this season, even if they do sneak into the playoffs in a top-heavy Central Division. This means that they receive no benefit from hanging on to their impending unrestricted free agents. Mikael Granlund is the top trade chip among this group. The skilled forward was a late off-season signing and somewhat of an afterthought heading into the season, but leads all Nashville forwards in time on ice, proving himself to be an invaluable piece. Other teams have taken notice as well, as Granlund’s name has been floated on the rumor mill more than a few times and has been linked to several contenders. Another late off-season addition, Erik Haula will also be for sale. A similarly versatile forward to Granlund, Haula hasn’t made as much of an impact but has previously proven to be an asset in the right system. Among other expiring contracts, veterans Brad Richardson and Luca Sbisa, if healthy by the deadline, could draw some interest at a cheap price point. Despite their recent success, the Predators only reason for not trading any of these potential rentals would be if they had interest in an extension and only Granlund, their most valuable piece, would conceivably fit the bill.

The other reason why Poile is open to moving other players off his roster, those with term on their contracts, is partially due to the impending Expansion Draft. Whether the Predators choose to use the standard 7-3 protection scheme or instead choose the 8-skater scheme in order to protect Mattias Ekholm, they will be exposing key players either way. Ironically, the Predators’ impressive depth on paper is not doing much to help them this season but will hurt them in expansion. Ekholm is at the top of most trade boards as a name likely to move before the deadline. The Seattle Kraken would not hesitate to claim him if he was to be left exposed in the draft and the Predators will not give him up for free when he can command a strong return on the trade market as a balanced, two-way defenseman with an affordable contract and a reliable top-four track record. Yet, even if Ekholm is traded and the Predators can protect three defensemen and seven forwards, they still face liability up front. Nashville simply has too many valuable names at forward, even if many are underachieving. Are they really ready to let expensive, underwhelming former stars like Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene go for free? Could they really leave career Predators like Calle Jarnkrok or Colton Sissons exposed? And they also need to consider protecting younger names like Pitlick an Yakov Trenin who could be looked upon to take on larger roles moving forward. There are simply too many names in Nashville for a valuable player not to be left exposed, so why not listen to trade offers instead. Moving Johansen or Duchene this season is unlikely due to cap implications, but Jarnkrok, Sissons, Rocco Grimaldi, and Nick Cousins are all for sale at the right price. The difference between last month’s mindset and the current strategy is likely that only one or two of the aforementioned players are likely to go, rather than the whole lot in a fire sale.

The x-factor for Nashville at the deadline is forward Viktor Arvidsson. By no means does the team have to trade the talented winger, who will have a safe spot on their protection list come Expansion Draft time if he is still on the roster. However, Arvidsson has been in decline for two seasons now – an unexpected regression for a 27-year-old. Arvidsson is still relied upon to play a key top-six role for Nashville, but is failing to produce like he did as a back-to-back 61-point player just a few years ago. On one hand, the Predators would be selling low on the skilled forward, who should still have plenty left in the tank. On the other hand, moving Arvidsson if they are happy with an offer could be the reality check that the team desperately needs. If the trade market remains underwhelming though, as many expect, it is more likely that Arvidsson stays put for now. Trading him at his lowest point while the team is finally gaining traction is not the shake up they need.

Others to Watch For: D Mark Borowiecki ($2MM, 2022 UFA), D Matt Benning ($1MM, 2022 UFA), G Kasimir Kaskisuo ($700K, UFA), D Ben Harpur ($700K, RFA), F Michael McCarron ($700K, RFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – Despite several years in a row of regular season success, the Predators have managed to build themselves a nice pipeline of talent. At every position, they have multiple players who project to be good NHLers. The problem with their current pipeline is that it is getting a little old. Some of their best prospects are already in the pros, bouncing between the NHL and AHL or locked into contracts overseas. Many others are collegiate players on the older side for prospects. Nashville needs some fresh blood and the best way to do that is to add draft picks. Though they have their full complement of draft picks this year (minus a seventh-rounder), draft pick packages will be the way to go as they move on from current roster players.

2) Top-Four Left-Handed Prospect Defenseman – If available, the one area that Nashville could target a specific player rather than load up on draft picks is at left defense. With Ekholm looking like his time in Nashville is winding down and some concern over whether Boston University defenseman David Farrance will sign with the team or instead opt for free agency, there could be a major hole in the top-four at LHD. The Predators have the cap space to find a capable free agent stopgap, but could use a long-term plan. Young pros Fabbro, Alexandre Carrier, and Frederic Allard are all right-handed and Davies looks like a solid NHLer but is already 24 and lacks top-pair upside. In the pipeline, Marc Del Gaizo is an intriguing prospect but more likely a bottom-pair defender. No one else even projects to be an NHLer. The Predators need to reload on the blue line, and can do that through the draft, but if a top young left-handed defense prospect is offered up, they would be wise to consider. To a lesser extent, center is also a position that could become a need sooner rather than later in Nashville as many of the Predators’ top forward prospects are not necessarily projected to play center at the top level. A natural pivot with top-six upside would be a nice addition, but isn’t as pressing as left defense and could be more easily found where the team expects to pick in the first round of the 2021 NHL Draft.

Yannick Weber Signs PTO With Nashville Predators

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When the Nashville Predators released their training camp roster on Saturday, there was a familiar yet surprising name included on the list. Veteran defenseman Yannick Weber, who has donned a Nashville sweater for the past four years, will be back with the team in camp. However, it will not be in a contractual capacity for the season. The free agent defender will compete for a roster spot and thereby an extension while playing on a PTO agreement.

Weber, 32, is another example of a solid veteran player who has been left without options by this off-season’s flat cap market. While Weber is no offensive dynamo, he has built a long NHL career off of being a sound, reliable defensive player who works especially well as a plug-and-play depth option. Although some may not think of Weber as a surefire starter, he has quietly played in over 70% of Nashville’s games over the past four years as a regular in one of the league’s best defense corps. Weber has at least earned the right to prove he can still be an effective player and Nashville knows better than anyone that he is worth a look.

The problem though is that the Predators have all but replaced Weber’s role this off-season. The team re-hauled its bottom pair in free agency with the additions of Mark Borowiecki and Matt Benning, two similar defensive-minded blue liners. The team also has promising prospect Jeremy Davies waiting in the wings and an already-large group of experienced depth options in Jarred Tinordi, Ben Harpur, Tyler Lewington, and Alexandre Carrier. Weber is arguably a better option than many of these players but he is unlikely to unseat Borowiecki and Benning as a starter and would likely battle Tinordi or Davies to be the next man up as well. While the taxi squad offers some expanded opportunities for depth this season and could be an ideal spot for Weber, his PTO does not necessarily imply that a contract is eventually guaranteed.

 

Ten Notable Non-Tenders

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Lost in the shuffle on the marathon second day of the draft is that Wednesday also represented the deadline for qualifying offers to be tendered.  The flattening of the salary cap increased the concerns about salary arbitration which has certainly affected the quality of players that are now set to hit the open market on Friday.  As these players will not be a part of our annual Top-50 UFA Rankings, here’s a rundown of ten notables to keep tabs on over the coming days, listed in alphabetical order.

Andreas Athanasiou (Edmonton)

Back at the trade deadline, the Oilers dealt a pair of second-round picks and Sam Gagner to secure the speedster, one that GM Ken Holland had plenty of familiarity with from his own days with Detroit.  While the winger was having a tough season, he’s only a year removed from a 30-goal campaign.  In a normal salary cap world, his $3MM qualifier would have been tough to swallow but still would have happened.  Instead, he hits the open market with Edmonton not getting much return for those two fairly high picks while becoming an intriguing bounce-back target for some teams.  He won’t get paid like a 30-goal scorer but as a third-liner with upside, he’ll land one of the bigger contracts out of this group of players if not the biggest.

Matt Benning (Edmonton)

There was a time that the Oilers hoped that Benning could step into a role on their second pairing but it didn’t come to fruition.  However, he has been a serviceable third-pairing player over the past few years but a cap-strapped Oilers team couldn’t justify qualifying him at $1.95MM.  Given that he’s a right-handed shot in a market that doesn’t have a lot of them, he should have interest from a few teams.

Nick Cousins (Vegas)

On the surface, a $1MM qualifying offer to a player who had 25 points in 65 games and got into 17 postseason contests doesn’t seem too pricey.  But this is a case where the potential for a higher award through arbitration is a risk that Vegas didn’t want to take with Cousins.  It’s the second-straight year that the 27-year-old was non-tendered for this reason after Arizona did the same thing a year ago.  A versatile depth player, he should be able to land somewhere for around the same contract as he played on this past season.

Anthony Duclair (Ottawa)

Despite finding an opportunity to play a bigger role than he had at any other point in his career, it seems as if Duclair may have overplayed his hand in contract talks.  After scoring 23 goals this season, he opted to represent himself in contract negotiations against the recommendation of GM Pierre Dorion who indicated that a sizable raise was offered before getting to this point.  Still just 25, Duclair becomes a very interesting addition to the open market but having bounced around the league already (he has played for five different teams in six NHL seasons), it’s hard to tell how strong his market may be.

Vinnie Hinostroza (Arizona)

A year ago, it looked like the 26-year-old was set to be a useful part of Arizona’s long-term plans.  He was coming off of a career-best 16-23-39 stat line and was pushing for a spot in their top six.  Things went sideways this year though as he potted just five goals in 68 games which made a $1.5MM qualifier untenable.  Hinostroza could fit on a third line for some teams and should have a fair bit of interest.

Dominik Kahun (Buffalo)

This was one of the more surprising non-tenders of the group.  Although Kahun has just two years of NHL experience, he’s arbitration-eligible since he’s 25.  He followed up a 37-point rookie campaign with 31 points this pandemic-shortened season (including four in six games with Buffalo after being acquired in a deadline day deal from Pittsburgh) while he also missed time with a concussion and a knee injury.  With his point per game average, he played at a 45-point full-season pace.  Buffalo GM Kevyn Adams has indicated they are interested in retaining the winger but if he makes it to the open market, he should be one of the most sought-after players from this list.

Mark Jankowski (Calgary)

While he had shown progress in his development over his first two full NHL seasons, things went off the rails in 2019-20.  Jankowski scored just five times in 56 games and while he wouldn’t have been able to get much more than his $1.75MM qualifier in arbitration, that was still too high of a price tag for Calgary’s liking.  Still just 26, Jankowski now heads to an open market that isn’t exactly loaded in available centers so while a pay cut is likely, he should have no issues finding a new team.

Dominik Simon (Pittsburgh)

A natural center, Simon has spent the majority of his time with Pittsburgh on the wing, playing on all four lines along the way.  While not a gifted point producer, he has surpassed 20 points in each of the last two seasons while posting above-average possession numbers.  Owed a qualifier of less than $800K, the fear of arbitration sealed Simon’s fate on a cap-strapped Penguins squad.

Troy Stecher (Vancouver)

In 2018-19, Stecher looked to be on the verge of securing a spot in Vancouver’s top four after averaging nearly 20 minutes a night and chipping in with 23 points.  But the return of a healthy Chris Tanev and the addition of Tyler Myers helped push the 26-year-old onto the third pairing and a much lower ATOI than usual.  A $2.325MM qualifier is a bit high for someone in that role but there should be a few teams that see him as a potential fourth or fifth option which makes him a notable addition to the UFA market.

Lucas Wallmark (Florida)

One of the notable parts of the Vincent Trocheck deal, Wallmark was coming off of a league-minimum salary which means this non-tender was solely arbitration related.  The 25-year-old only has two full NHL seasons under his belt, putting up 25 and 23 points in each while posting a faceoff percentage that’s a bit above the 50% mark each time.  There is still some upside with Wallmark and with a weak market down the middle, he’ll have no trouble generating interest.

While these players (among the others that were non-tendered) can become unrestricted free agents on Friday, some teams will still be negotiating with their players to try to get them at a lower salary than either their qualifying offer or their expected arbitration salary.  Usually, a handful wind up re-signing so at least for some of these players, their fates may not be completely sealed yet.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor Transactions: 01/29/20

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Six games are on tap in the NHL this evening, including Jason Spezza’s return to Dallas after leaving the Stars for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season. The Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers will have the latest battle of Alberta as well, with all eyes on Matthew Tkachuk and Zack Kassian after their altercation the last two times these teams played.

  • Edmonton will have a familiar face back in the lineup tonight for the battle as Matt Benning has been activated from long-term injured reserve. Benning hasn’t played in nearly two months, after suffering multiple head injuries.
  • The Los Angeles Kings have also activated a defensemen, bringing back Joakim Ryan for their game tonight. Ryan has missed ten straight games for the Kings with a lower-body injury.
  • With all eyes on the New York Rangers’ goaltending situation, they’ve recalled Igor Shesterkin again after the break. The team will have three goalies on the roster until they decide what to do with Alexandar Georgiev.
  • Dennis Gilbert is on his way back to the NHL after being recalled by the Chicago Blackhawks, where he has spent half the season. The third-round pick from 2015 looks like he might be a full-time member of the squad at some point in the future, but so far has split his year between the Blackhawks and Rockford IceHogs.
  • After the St. Louis Blues placed Oskar Sundqvist on injured reserve earlier today, they have recalled the recently waived Troy Brouwer. The veteran forward hadn’t even reported to the AHL yet and was still deciding whether to continue his career.

Injury Notes: Benning, Maple Leafs, Heiskanen

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The Edmonton Oilers have recalled Matt Benning from his conditioning stint with the Bakersfield Condors. Benning hasn’t played in the NHL since the beginning of December, after suffering two head injuries in short succession. He played three games in the AHL on his conditioning stint, scoring one point.

Benning’s return to full health would be a very interesting addition for the Oilers, who have come to rely heavily on some of their other young defenders in his absence. The 25-year old had played in more than 200 games for the team over the last several years and will give the team even more options to consider as the trade deadline approaches. Technically Benning is still on long-term injured reserve, though the team does have the roster room to activate him if they choose.

  • The Toronto Maple Leafs are also getting some injured bodies back, activating Jake Muzzin and Trevor Moore from injured reserve today. The Maple Leafs are back in action tonight and are expected to keep young defenseman Rasmus Sandin in the lineup even with Muzzin returning, meaning the first year of his entry-level contract will kick in.
  • Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen is expected to return tonight after missing the team’s last game with a concussion. Heiskanen suffered the injury on January 16th, but with the bye week and All-Star break will apparently only be out a single game. In 47 games during his sophomore season Heiskanen has 24 points and is averaging more than 24 minutes a night for the Stars.

Minor Transactions: 01/19/20

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Following last night’s results, each of the top five teams in the Pacific Division are within one point of each other, top to bottom. The Vancouver Canucks stand alone in first place with 58 points, but with each of the following four teams sitting at 57. It is the first time since 1978 that the top five teams in an NHL division have all been separated by such a small margin after January 1. Of course, not all point totals are created equal; Vancouver and Edmonton have played just 49 games, while Calgary has 50 games played and Vegas and Arizona have 51. As such, the teams’ point percentages differ more than their total points, especially in the case of the Canucks versus the Knights and Coyotes. Nonetheless, it is still a tight division, and one that has been on the rise this season to now occupy both Western Conference wild card spots. The Central Division’s top three – St. Louis, Colorado, and Dallas – may all have better records than any team in the Pacific, but the rest of their division has been overtaken. The 57/58-point range at this point in the year is nothing to criticize either. There are currently eleven teams with 57 or 58 points, all of whom are in playoff positions or just outside. So while the likes of Washington, Boston, and St. Louis might make the high fifties look light, it is actually a great pace for a playoff hopeful. With such a tight postseason picture right now in both conferences, though specifically the Pacific Division, every game counts and every little move made impacts those games. Keep an eye on all of today’s transactions here, as you never know what minor move could shift a season:

  • Many of “today’s” minor transactions occurred late last night, as 17 different teams are entering their bye week and many shuffled their young players to minors once their final game came to an end. The Ottawa Senators are one such example. The team reassigned young forwards Drake Batherson, Filip Chlapik, and Rudolfs Balcers to AHL Belleville following last night’s win.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs were in a similar boat, sending Adam Brooks and Tim Liljegren back to the AHL’s Marlies following last night’s game, which was also Liljegren’s NHL debut. Brooks has played in seven games with the Maple Leafs so far in his rookie season.
  • The Arizona Coyotes also head on bye, and have demoted goalie Adin Hill, defenseman Kyle Capobianco, and forward Michael Chaput to the Tuscon Roadrunners. Hill has played a key role of late for the ‘Yotes, but the team hopes to have Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta at full strength on the other side of this time off.
  • The St. Louis Blues made just one minor move before hitting their bye, assigning young defenseman Niko Mikkola to the San Antonio Rampage. Mikkola has looked good on the ice if not on the score sheet in five games with the Blues this season.
  • Also making just a single demotion before the bye were the Dallas Stars, who sent forward Joel Kiviranta to AHL Texas. Kiviranta is still looking for his first NHL point after seeing limited ice time in seven NHL games and will benefit from an increased role in the minors for a while.
  • Other bye week moves being reported by CapFriendly include the Los Angeles Kings sending forwards Matt Luff and Jaret Anderson-Dolan to the Ontario Reign, the San Jose Sharks shifting Joachim Blichfeld, Joel Kellman, and Antti Suomela to the AHL Barracuda locker room, and the Montreal Canadiens reassigning veteran Dale Weise to the Laval Rocket.
  • This morning, the Buffalo Sabres announced their own flurry of moves, reassigning forwards Rasmus Asplund and Scott Wilson and defenseman Lawrence Pilut to the AHL’s Rochester Americans. While Pilut and Wilson have seen limited action, Asplund’s demotion is a bit surprising. Of every player sent down so far for their team’s bye week, none have played as many NHL games this season as Asplund’s 28. Yet, apparently the Sabres do not feel that he has earned the week off.
  • The Chicago Blackhawks announced they have assigned forward Dylan Sikura to the Rockford Ice Hogs of the AHL. The 24-year-old had a more successful run with Chicago this year as he scored his first NHL goal and three points in nine games. He’ll continue to work on his game in Rockford where he has nine goals and 16 points in 22 games.
  • The New Jersey Devils announced they have assigned three players to their AHL affiliate, the Binghamton Devils, including goaltender Cory Schneider and forwards Michael McLeod and Jesper Boqvist. It will be Boqvist’s first trip to the AHL as he made the New Jersey squad directly out of Sweden.
  • The Edmonton Oilers announced they are sending injured defenseman Matt Benning to the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL on a conditioning stint. The 25-year-old blueliner has been out with a head injury since Dec. 1. The team has been extra cautious with Benning as its his second head injury this season. With the Oilers off until Jan. 29, Benning’s best chance of getting game experience is with the Condors, who have four games coming up this week. Benning has appeared in just 24 games this season, averaging just 13:42 of ice time.

Edmonton Oilers Activate Adam Larsson

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The Edmonton Oilers are playing like one of the best teams in the entire NHL, and today are getting back a huge part of their defense. Adam Larsson has been activated from injured reserve and will be back in the lineup tonight against the Los Angeles Kings. Matt Benning is in the concussion protocol and will come out.

This will be just the second game of the season for Larsson after he suffered a broken fibula in the season opener.

Though he’ll always be seen in a different light because of the trade that brought him to Edmonton, Larsson is undoubtedly one of the most important players on the roster. The 27-year old defenseman has logged more than 21 minutes a night since joining the Oilers and looked like he may get even more responsibility under new head coach Dave Tippett.

The Oilers sit in first place in the Pacific Division after 23 games with a 14-6-3 record. Though it has been the offense driving the ship so far, an improved defense could make them even more dangerous in the Western Conference playoff race.

Pacific Notes: Golden Knights, Burdasov, Russell, Sutter

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The Vegas Golden Knights have had a quiet offseason so far this year after a busy couple of years. Many were shocked to see the expansion team already being capped out, loaded down with plenty of talented veterans on what was supposed to be a young roster. Instead, Vegas has built a team that can contend immediately and many have projected Vegas to capture the Western Conference. Despite having little maneuvering room in which they had to cast off a number of players, including Erik Haula, Colin Miller and Nikita Gusev, next season could be a whole different story.

Las Vegas Sun’s Justin Emerson writes that Vegas should have quite a bit of cap room next season once again once several contracts are off the books, including Cody Eakin, Ryan Reaves and Nick Holden amongst others. With a number of prospects ready to move into the Golden Knights’ lineup in a year, the team might have quite a bit of cap available, upwards of $6-9MM of available cap room (depending on moves made from now until July 1, 2020). That could free up enough room to acquire a significant free agent next season to target a number of free agents, especially on defense, including players like Tyson Barrie, Jared Spurgeon, Justin Schultz or Justin Faulk.

  • In his Sunday column, Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins writes that he doubts that the Edmonton Oilers will go after Russian forward Anton Burdasov who has expressed recent interest in coming to the NHL this season with Edmonton supposedly being one of the three primary suitors for the 28-year-old. Burdasov is coming off a career-high 19 goals and tied his career-high in points in the KHL last season. However, Leavins adds that Burdasov is neither a playmaker or a good skater, which likely wouldn’t interest the Oilers too much as Edmonton is looking for players to increase their speed and are able to play next to their top two centers in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
  •  Sticking with the Oilers, Edmonton Journal’s David Staples writes that the Edmonton Oilers intend to shift defenseman Kris Russell back to his natural left side next season. Russell has been playing on the right side with the team as a top-four option, but assistant coach Jim Playfair said he wants Russell to move back to the left, while the team wants Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson to pair together this year. Russell likely will be asked to take a third-pairing role, which should allow a one of the team’s younger players to step into the open top-four role on the right side. Several players are likely expected to battle for the open spot, including Matt Benning, Joel Persson, Ethan Bear and Evan Bouchard.
  • In his quest to get back to full health, Vancouver Canucks veteran forward Brandon Sutter is trying to use Pilates for the first time in his 11-year career to get back into shape. “I started doing Pilates this summer which was awesome,” the 30-year-old Sutter said Wednesday following an off-season skills and conditioning skate. “A whole different thing than I’ve done before and now that I’ve started it, I wish I would have done it 10 years ago because it has helped a lot,” said the 30-year-old Sutter. “It’s all functional movement and based on the inner thigh and core. It’s just very specific for exactly what I need and now that I’ve done it, in the future I’ll do it more and spend less time lifting weights.” Sutter was expected to play a significant role for the team last season, but injuries derailed his season and he appeared in just 26 games, scoring just four goals. The hope is that using Pilates might keep him healthy for a full season and he can play a big role as a bottom-line leader this year.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $79,066,999 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Joakim Nygard (one year, $925K)
F Cooper Marody (two years, $925K)
F Kailer Yamamoto (two years, $894K)
D Evan Bouchard (three years, $894K)
F Tyler Benson (two years, $808K)
D Caleb Jones (one year, $720K)
D Ethan Bear (one year, $720K)

Potential Bonuses

Bouchard: $850K
Yamamoto: $230K
Marody: $75K
Jones: $70K
Bear: $20K

The team have a number of young players on entry-level deals, but so far while there is a ton of potential here, not one player has stepped up and established themselves as a full-time player on the Oilers roster. Yamamoto, the team’s 2017 first-rounder, was expected to provide the speed that the team needed to develop a fast-paced offense, but after 26 NHL games, he’s provided just one goal and four assists. Marody has appeared in six games with no points, while Benson, despite quite a bit of success in the AHL, hasn’t gotten a chance at the NHL level, although that’s likely to change this season. The team also has high hopes in Nygard, who is a speedy winger, who is coming off a 21-goal campaign in the SHL, but remains a mystery.

On defense, the team might get their 2018 first-round pick, Evan Bouchard, to make the team and contribute quickly, but he also must prove to the team that he’s ready for that opportunity. However, Bouchard already has seven games of experience with the Oilers (scoring one goal), while posting three goals and eight points for the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL in eight playoff games. Other defenseman might also be ready, including Bear and Jones. Bear has played two seasons now in the AHL, while Jones got 17 games with the Oilers last season and might be the most NHL-ready.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Darnell Nurse ($3.2MM, RFA)
F Sam Gagner ($3.15MM, UFA)
D Brandon Manning ($2.25MM, UFA)
G Mike Smith ($1MM, UFA)
F Zack Kassian ($1.95MM, UFA)
D Matt Benning (1.9MM, RFA)
F Markus Granlund ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Kyle Brodziak ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Josh Archibald ($1MM, UFA)
D Joel Persson ($1MM, RFA)
F Tomas Jurco ($750K, UFA)
F Colby Cave ($675K, RFA)

The bulk of the Oilers contracts seem to be one-year deals, which means that many players will have to prove to the Edmonton front office that they deserve a new contract. The team will likely unload the contracts of both Gagner and Manning after this season, which should free up $5.4MM of cap space. The Oilers traded for the veteran Gagner near the trade deadline and he contributed five goals and 10 points in 25 games for Edmonton, but he likely will take a bottom-line role with Oilers this season, while Manning has never been a good fit after being acquired from the Blackhawks in December last season. Smith is another veteran the Oilers have high hopes for, but the team will reassess its goaltending situation at the end of the year and whether to bring the then 38-year-old back for another season. The same can be said for players like Archibald, Granlund and Jurco.

The team will have pay up next season for Nurse, a restricted free agent, who put up career-high numbers last season with the Oilers. The 24-year-old put up 10 goals and 41 points and averaged 23:49 of time on the ice. He also blocked 146 shots, while adding 162 hits as well, making him a solid all-around player despite seeing his plus-minus drop from a plus-15 in 2017-18 to a minus-five last year. The team must decide whether to keep Benning, who will also be a restricted free agent. Benning saw his playing time drop by almost three minutes since the previous year and might lose his job to some of the team’s young defensive prospects.

The team also have a number of veteran players, who will hit unrestricted free agency, including Kassian, who saw career highs in ATOI (14:48) and goals (15) and also put up 191 hits as a bottom-line forward for the team. At 28, he could be considered an important keeper for the Oilers. Unfortunately, Brodziak’s success in Edmonton wasn’t as impressive as the veteran center averaged just 11:42 of ATOI, while scoring career low six goals and nine points.

Two Years Remaining

F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6MM, UFA)
D Adam Larsson ($4.17MM, UFA)
D Kris Russell ($4MM, UFA)
F Alex Chiasson ($2.15MM, UFA)
F Jujhar Khaira ($1.2MM, RFA)

This could be an interesting year for Nugent-Hopkins, who has always been an excellent defensive player, but now has established himself as a solid offensive player as well with a career-high 28 goals and 69 points. However with his contract coming up in two years, the Oilers might want to decide whether he is worth handing a long-term, expensive deal to. If they aren’t ready to lock him up, the Oilers might get the most value for Nugent-Hopkins at the trade deadlines. After all, top-six centers rarely come available and considering that any team that trades for him automatically gets another full season out of him, he might become quite a valuable trade chip.

The Oilers must also decide what they want to do with two of their highly-paid defensemen in Larsson and Russell. Both blueliners receive more than 20 minutes a night, but neither provides much offensive talent and haven’t been that helpful lately on defense either and between the two of them, the Oilers are giving them $8.17MM. Larsson put up comparable offensive numbers last year, but saw his defensive numbers drop as his minus-28 plus-minus was his lowest in his career by far. Russell also had comparable numbers from the last couple of years and kept his plus-minus in the positive, but the team may look to find a taker for either of them at the trade deadline.

Chiasson earned his two-year deal after posting a career-high 22 goals last season after winning a job in training camp on a PTO. The team hopes that the 28-year-old can duplicate that season. Khaira scored just three goals last season and will have to prove that he belongs on the roster next season.

Three Years Remaining

G Mikko Koskinen ($4.5MM, UFA)

Edmonton surprised many when former general manager Peter Chiarelli signed Koskinen to a three-year, $13.5MM extension last season despite a small sample size as an NHL goaltender. Koskinen didn’t fare that well in the second half of the season after signing the extension, putting up a 3.07 GAA and a .902 save percentage, which could make this a rocky relationship if Koskinen can’t prove to Edmonton that he is a No. 1 goaltender. The 31-year-old goaltender has spent most of his career in the KHL and may not be the answer that the Oilers were hoping for.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Connor McDavid ($12.5MM through 2025-26)
F Leon Draisaitl ($8.5MM through 2024-25)
F James Neal ($5.75MM through 2022-23)
D Oscar Klefbom ($4.17MM through 2022-23)

The team has a couple of stud players in McDavid and Draisaitl and most would suggest that they are worth their contracts and they might even be bargains considering how well they were playing. Both have proven to be top-line players and they both broke the 100-point barrier last season and combining for 91 goals. The fact that both are locked up for at least another six years (seven for McDavid) shows that Edmonton already has a base of two franchise players and just need to fill out the rest of their roster with solid players who can fill out the rest of the team.

Neal is an interesting gamble by new general manager Ken Holland. The team was looking for a way to unload the untradeable contract of Milan Lucic, but managed to get the long-term deal of Neal, who is coming off 10 straight seasons of 20 goals or more, before his seven-goal performance last year in Calgary. The team hopes that the 31-year-old can prove that last year’s egg was just a fluke and the veteran can bounce back and provide some scoring on the wing for a team that really needs it.

Klefbom is another interesting defenseman, who the team hopes can improve, especially offensively. The 26-year-old managed 38 points back in the 2016-17 season, but has hasn’t been able to break 30 points since then. While his minutes are impressive, Edmonton needs to get more from one of their defensemen, who they signed assuming he would develop into a top-line defender.

Buyouts

D Andrej Sekera ($2.5MM in 2019-20 & 2020-21; $1.5MM in 2021-22 and 2022-23)
F Benoit Pouliot ($1.33MM per year through 2020-21)
D Eric Gryba ($300K in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Milan Lucic ($750K per year through 2022-23)

Still To Sign

F Jesse Puljujarvi

Much has already been written about the impasse between the Oilers and Puljujarvi, who has demanded to be traded because he believes he can’t become a top forward in Edmonton. Holland has received no viable offers from other NHL teams and it looks likely that Puljujarvi might have to stay overseas for a season and hope that he can develop his game overseas with Karpat of the Finnish League and come back in a year with a new sense of purpose. However, nothing has happened yet and there’s always a possibility that he opts to come back to Edmonton and tries it again. The only problem: he’s not waiver exempt anymore, meaning he must stay on Edmonton’s roster or be placed on waivers and undoubtedly would be claimed by another team.

Best Value: Draisaitl
Worst Value: Koskinen

Looking Ahead

The team has its franchise players and with plenty of cap space freeing up next season, the team might have a way to add even more talent. However, what Edmonton needs more than anything is to see some of their young talent take that next step and begin making some major improvements. The Oilers have a dearth of talent on defense that should slowly be trickling in over the next few years, but more than anything Edmonton needs scoring. While McDavid and Draisaitl cost the franchise a great deal, the team must find the wingers that can get the team back into the playoffs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Atlantic Notes: Zaitsev, Johansson, Condon, Luongo

at CDT | by 8 Comments

The Toronto Maple Leafs don’t have to, but if the team wants to move on from defenseman Nikita Zaitsev, it might be beneficial to trade him before July 1 when his 10-team no-trade clause kicks in. While Zaitsev has requested a trade as well, making it easier for Toronto to unload the five years remaining on his contract at $4.5MM, there are likely to be several teams interested in acquiring the 27-year-old.

In fact, The Athletic’s James Mirtle (subscription required) looks into what teams would be the most likely to acquire the blueliner and the Edmonton Oilers find themselves at the top of the list. Zaitsev could be paired with one of Toronto’s forwards, either Connor Brown, Kasperi Kapanen or Andreas Johnsson to acquire either Matt Benning or even Adam Larsson in the right deal.

The Vancouver Canucks and Anaheim Ducks round out the top three teams who would make the best bets, but there are quiet a few other candidates as well.

  • Boston Globe’s Nick Kelly writes that Boston Bruins forward Marcus Johansson was non-committal Friday when asked about whether he wanted to return to Boston next season. An unrestricted free agent and a key contributor throughout the playoffs (four goals and 11 points in 22 games), the 28-year-old may have priced his way out of Boston. However, Johansson said he did enjoy his time with the Bruins and will speak to them first before looking at his other options.
  • Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun writes that even though the Ottawa Sentators locked up backup goaltender Anders Nilsson to a tw0-year, $5.2MM extension which many thought would be the end for Mike Condon. The 29-year-old, who lost the backup job early last season, still has one year remaining on his contract at $2.4MM and seemed like a prime buyout candidate. However, general manager Pierre Dorion said the team will not buy him out and intend to bring him in to camp in the fall before determining what to do with him. Condon made just two appearances, allowing eight goals and had a .800 save percentage. He was sent to Belleville of the AHL for one game before he opted to sit out the rest of the year with hip inflammation. He hopes to be healthy for training camp.
  • Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman notes that he spoke recently to Florida Panthers general manager Dale Tallon, who told him that he expects goaltender Roberto Luongo to make a decision about his future soon, in fact, before the draft next Friday. The team needs an idea on whether Luongo intends to come back next year. Florida is expected to sign one of the top goaltenders on the market with Sergei Bobrovsky on the top of their list. However, if Luongo opt to return (he still has three years remaining at $4.53MM AAV), the team will have to find a way to move out James Reimer.
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