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Loui Eriksson

The Signing Bonus: Rise Of The Buyout-Proof Contract (A Reprise)

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This article was originally published in July of 2016, but seems extremely relevant a year later. Most of the players discussed inside underachieved in their first season, and again we saw signing bonuses handed out like candy this summer. Included at the bottom is an update with new contracts from this offseason.

The life of an NHL agent is tough. As the league continues to tweak (or totally overhaul) their CBA each few seasons, changing contract regulations and offering teams different ways of structuring deals, agents are always trying to find ways to circumvent them and get the best offers for their clients.

With teams becoming more and more willing to use buyouts to rid themselves of the horrible contracts that they sign on July 1st – famously a day of simultaneous excitement and regret – agents around the league needed to find a way to protect their clients from losing out on a third (or sometimes two-thirds) of the salary the sides agreed on.

The most recent buyout window, which lasted from June 15th to 30th, saw a dozen NHL players bought out, including household names like Thomas Vanek and Dennis Seidenberg. While some fans may see this as an opportunity for a player to earn two contracts at the same time – Vanek was signed on by Detroit for $2.6MM on July 1st, more than the $1.5MM he surrendered in his buyout – most take it as a personal slight, an indictment of their play or character. Regardless, agents continue to try and secure guarantees for their clients, instead of leaving the power in the hands of the league’s general managers.

"<strongEnter the signing bonus, this summer’s contract-du-jour. All across the league, big name free agents have inked deals that will see them paid almost entirely in signing bonuses, with very little actual salary being given out each season.  Take Loui Eriksson for instance:

2016-17 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2017-18 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2018-19 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $6MM
2019-20 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $4MM
2020-21 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $3MM
2021-22 – Salary: $3MM, Bonus: $1MM

While Eriksson’s cap-hit sits at $6MM per year, he’ll make more than that in bonuses alone each of the next three seasons. There are a couple of reasons why this would benefit the player.

For one, everyone loves getting a big check rather than a weekly salary – who would turn down a piece of paper with six zeros?  As any economist will tell you, money in hand is worth more than money promised to come, and just as teams in other sports are deferring payments for this reason long into the future, having money up front is actually more valuable for the player in question.

It’s in the buyout rules that the contract really holds value though, as – hinted at by the title – these contracts are basically buyout-proof.  Under the current CBA, buyouts are calculated by taking two-thirds of the remaining salary owed, not including signing bonuses, and spreading it out over twice the remaining contract length. The new cap hit is determined by subtracting the savings from the average annual value of the deal which includes signing bonuses.

This means that if the Canucks were to want to buy out Eriksson after say, the third year of his new deal, they’ll only be saving $333K of cap hit in 2020-21, an insignificant portion of the $6MM number. That last season of $3MM is a bit better for the Canucks (they would save $2MM of his cap hit), but structuring it this way almost guarantees that Eriksson will collect at least $35MM of his deal – more than 97%. It’s just not worth it to buy him out any sooner than his final year.

"<strongAndrew Ladd, Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo all signed deals heavily impacted by signing bonuses, protecting them against a buyout through all but the very end of their agreements.  Even Matt Martin, a career fourth liner secured a $10MM deal that is 65% bonus.  He’ll only be collecting $750K in salary in years three and four of the deal.

While this doesn’t necessarily mean trouble for clubs around the league, you can bet the owners and NHLPA will take a look at it when negotiations begin on the new CBA.  The current agreement expires in 2022, though the two sides have the option to end it a year earlier.

Just as the league has used cap recapture and contract limits to close loopholes in the past, be sure that if they want to continue to have the option to buyout bad contracts they’ll remove this option from the equation.  Creating a rule that would make signing bonuses only be able to hit a certain percentage of each season’s salary would be the easy fix, but expect push-back from the NHLPA.

Even if they do end up closing it, agents will work on another way to get their clients the best possible guarantee; they always seem to be one step ahead of the league.

This summer, signing bonuses have taken off even further. Carey Price’s eight-year extension with the Montreal Canadiens is over 80% signing bonuses, with the goaltender making a maximum of $2MM in salary per year. A $10.5MM cap hit through age-38 will be impossible to buy out, offering almost no cap savings. The Blackhawks face a similar situation with Brent Seabrook, whose 2015 contract is looking worse and worse, and provides little incentive for a buyout.

Interestingly, the Nashville Predators have continued in their practice of avoiding signing bonuses altogether. After signing Filip Forsberg to a bonus-free deal last summer, both Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson have taken similar structures in their long-term extensions this year. GM David Poile has taken much of the risk off the table even as he allocated many of his resources to his trio of young forwards. Though they pose little risk of age-decline, all three carry large enough cap hits to really hurt the Predators if they were to take a step backwards in their development. It’s hard to see any deserving a buyout, but the option is still there.

Alexander Radulov may be the biggest example among 2017 unrestricted free agents, as his contract with the Dallas Stars is both front-loaded and filled with signing bonuses. Radulov will earn just $13.25MM in salary over the next five seasons, making it difficult to buy out even as he enters his mid-thirties. For a player who has a relatively short track record of success in the NHL, it may quickly turn into a problem if he starts to feel the draw of father time.

A Quiet 2017 Off-Season

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By the time August rolls around each year, it seems like the off-season is dragging on. The July 1st free agent frenzy is long behind us and it’s been weeks since the last major signing. Fans are struggling to get their hockey fill and counting the days until the puck drops on preseason hockey. In 2017, fans have all the more reason to be sick of the off-season. When compared with the summer of 2016, this off-season has simply been boring. It was expected to be as such, but no one could have predicted just how quiet this summer could be.

As of today, August 6th, 2017, there have only been two unrestricted free agents signed to contracts worth more than $6MM per year: Kevin Shattenkirk to the New York Rangers (as predicted) and Alexander Radulov to the Dallas Stars. In contrast, there were four such deals signed on July 1st, 2016 alone. Drop that mark down to contracts worth more than $4MM annually, and you get uninspiring names this year like Evgeni Dadonov, Dmitry Kulikov, Nick Bonino, Karl Alzner, Martin Hanzal, and Steve Mason added to the list; hardly a superstar among them. 2016 saw high-profile players like Milan Lucic, David Backes, Loui Eriksson, Kyle Okposo, and Andrew Ladd all find new homes. Those signings came on the heels of the P.K. Subban – Shea Weber and Taylor Hall – Adam Larsson trades as well. The best swaps 2017 has to offer so far are Travis Hamonic or Marcus Johansson being dealt for draft picks. There have simply been a lack of franchise-altering moves made this summer.

Then you have the timeline of when deals got done. By August last year, the best unsigned free agents were Antoine Vermette, Jiri Hudler, and Jhonas Enroth. The year before, Cody Franson and David Schlemko highlighted the August market. In both cases, NHL teams got their deals done in July, filling the month with exciting signing news. This year? Not so much. Legendary players like Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla, and Shane Doan remain available, alongside other able-bodied contributors like Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, and Daniel Winnik. That’s in addition to Franson and Hudler as well. Teams are simply waiting around on this market for reasons unknown. Could it end up as an exciting run of signing in August? Maybe, but don’t count on it.

The weak 2017 free agent market coupled with the challenge of preparing for June’s Expansion Draft has simply resulted in one of quietest off-seasons in recent memory. Several teams still have needs and spots to fill and signings and trades remain possible, but at this point the summer is a lost cause. Time to look forward to next season and even next summer when we *hope* to see the likes of John Tavares, Rick Nash, Evander Kane, James Neal, James van Riemsdyk, Paul Stastny, Mikko Koivu, Cam Atkinson, Jonathan Marchessault, Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Mike Green, Jack Johnson, Calvin de Haan, and Antti Raanta all hit the open market. Hopefully that list is enough excitement to get you through the rest of this one.

Deadline Approaches To Ask Players To Waive No-Movement Clauses

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On the heels of yesterday’s report that both Keith Yandle and Dion Phaneuf had been asked to waive their no-movement clauses in order to be exposed for the upcoming expansion draft, speculation is running rampant around the league on who else will be asked. Below is the full list of players who currently require protection due to their clauses. The deadline to submit a request to a player is 4pm CDT today, while the player must inform the team of his decision by the same time on Friday June 16th. Because the Stanley Cup Finals ended last night, Nashville and Pittsburgh will not receive an extension and will need to submit their requests at the same time as every other team.

Elliotte Friedman was on Sportsnet radio today and mentioned that the Anaheim Ducks have spoken with Kevin Bieksa about possibly waiving his clause, something examined at length in our recent Ducks Expansion Primer.

Anaheim (4)
Kevin Bieksa — Expected to be asked.
Ryan Getzlaf
Ryan Kesler
Corey Perry

Arizona (1)
Alex Goligoski

Boston (4)
David Backes
Patrice Bergeron
Zdeno Chara
David Krejci

Read more

Should The Capitals Trade Alex Ovechkin?

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For many, the latest second-round dud in a long history of stinging defeats for the Washington Capitals was the final straw. Commentators and analysts from around the league and in the nation’s capital have openly contemplated whether the team’s captain and generational talent Alex Ovechkin should be traded. While there is a case to be made for considering the option, there is a long list of reasons Washington would get fleeced in such a deal and should avoid it at all costs.

Firstly, Ovechkin is not likely to bring back a player anywhere near his caliber. Granted, all 30 other franchises would be clamoring for a chance to bid on his services. However, these would almost certainly involve lesser players. The old adage of “never trade quality for quantity” would hold true in this scenario. Although the Capitals could completely restock their 3rd and 4th lines, their prospect pool, as well as add a difference maker – the bottom line is they lose the best player in the deal.

Second, Ovechkin is a pure goal scoring menace. He dictates the flow of play when he is on his game in a way few other players can. His hitting ability and aggressiveness only add dimensions to the offense he brings to a team. There are few players who can score with as much consistency and be relied upon to bury a puck. He has accumulated 558 goals in 921 games. Other than Steven Stamkos and Phil Kessel, no one is even in the same stratosphere. When a game is on the line, you need a player who can score – Ovechkin can, even if he didn’t this spring. And his playoff goals per game – well, he’s potted 44 in 46 games played – good for be 24th all time.

Third, nearly all historical examples of megastars being traded have turned into total backfires for the team. When 19 year-old Tyler Seguin was dealt to the Dallas Stars along with Rich Peverley from the Boston Bruins due to rumored conduct issues, the return was minimal. Loui Eriksson has ultimately contributed to his team after long slumps and Joe Morrow has just begun to crack the lineup. Reilly Smith has turned into a serviceable player, but Seguin’s 306 points in 305 games for Dallas easily dwarf Smith’s efforts. When Jaromir Jagr was dealt in his late prime to the Washington Capitals, the Penguins went 5 years without a Playoff appearance and suffered further heavy financial losses. Michal Sivek, and Ross Lupaschuk, both intriguing players at the time, went on to play a combined 41 games, and in 7 seasons Kris Beech only scored 25 goals. When dealing with prospect and pick returns, there is no sure thing.

Moving Ovechkin may seem to make sense in the aftermath of yet another playoff disappointment, but trading generational talents rarely works out well. Although changes are certainly coming Washington’s way, it would likely be a mistake to move on from the future hall-of-fame left wing. He is still earning his $9.5 MM contract, but a year removed from a Rocket Richard trophy.

West Notes: DeSimone, Canucks, Strait, Couture

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Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reported on Tuesday that Nick DeSimone of Union College was headed to the San Jose Sharks, and now CapFriendly has the details on the contract. It will be a two-year, entry-level deal worth the maximum $925K each season. The contract will kick in for next season, meaning DeSimone will become a restricted free agent after the 2018-19 season, at the age of 24.

DeSimone had a solid season for Union scoring 19 points in 38 games, but lacks some of the high-end offensive upside of his free agent contemporaries. Instead, he’ll need to focus on improving his d-zone work and try to carve out a niche as a two-way defenseman in the AHL. Former NHLer Matthew Barnaby had this to say about him: “Great kid , Elite skater with good hockey sense.” 

  • The Vancouver Canucks will welcome both Loui Eriksson and Troy Stecher back into the lineup tomorrow night against the Los Angeles Kings. Eriksson, signed to a six year, $36MM deal this offseason has been a bitter disappointment this season between injuries and ineffectiveness. With 24 points through 65 games, he will likely register his lowest total since his rookie season (when he played just 59 games) and end the season with fewer than 15 goals (he currently has 11).  Those are numbers the Canucks can’t be happy with, as Eriksson will enter his age-32 season next year looking for a big bounce-back. If he can’t, that contract will hang around their necks for the next several years, as it is very much buyout-proof due to front loading and signing bonuses.
  • Winnipeg has loaned Brian Strait to the Manitoba Moose after playing five games for the club. The former New York Islander recorded two assists during that time, but won’t be needed now that Dustin Byfuglien is back in the lineup and Nelson Nogier looks to finish the season with the NHL club.
  • Kevin Kurz of CSN reports that Logan Couture will miss at least three more games after getting hit in the mouth with a puck on Saturday night. That means Couture will miss the entire road trip through Western Canada, as the Sharks look to reclaim that top spot in the Pacific Division. Now tied with the Oilers and just three points ahead of the Flames, the Sharks could legitimately fall to a wildcard spot before the end of the season and possibly even have to face the Chicago Blackhawks in the first round. It’s been a rough run for them lately, going 3-7 in their last ten.

July 1st Free Agent Frenzy Reflection

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The National Football League officially opened the 2017-18 league year yesterday at 4:00pm ET, and the annual onslaught of massive free agent signings has been ongoing ever since, keeping our friends over at Pro Football Rumors pretty busy. The NHL has a similar ritual, as flurry of free agent activity is common each and every July 1st, when a new hockey season officially begins. Last summer, a handful of huge contracts were handed out on July 1st. With the season winding down, how have those players performed in their first seasons? (Hint: mostly really bad)

Milan Lucic

Signed: Seven-year, $42MM deal with the Edmonton Oilers

2016-17 stats: 66 games, 14 goals, 22 assists, 36 points, -7 rating, 134 shots, 17:13 ATOI

Of all six players who received the biggest contracts on July 1st, Lucic is the only one on a team that appears to be a lock for the postseason in 2016-17. Now, that may say more about the effectiveness of hastily giving out money to the best players on the market, but Lucic at least deserves some credit. His offensive production doesn’t quite match up with his $6MM yearly price tag, but Lucic has added the same degree of grit and toughness that made him a fan favorite and Stanley Cup champion with the Boston Bruins. Lucic is always a physical threat on the ice and can make plays through his ability to crash the net and win battles along the boards. He’s never been able to score much more than 60 points per season, with just one 30-goal campaign in his career, but he earns his money through protecting the talented players on the ice while also having the ability to skate alongside them. Lucic is also spending an abnormal amount of time not in the penalty box, with just 41 penalty minutes as opposed to a career average closer to one hundred. Lucic is spending more time on the ice, most recently with his new line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle, than he is in the box, and as long as that continues, this contract will pay off for the Edmonton Oilers.

Kyle Okposo

Signed: Seven-year, $42MM deal with the Buffalo Sabres

2016-17 stats: 63 games, 19 goals, 24 assists, 43 points, -6 rating, 151 shots, 19:04 ATOI

Okposo may have been named an All-Star in his first season in Buffalo, but the Sabres were likely expecting more from their major 2016 investment. The Sabres were likely expecting more from the 2016-17 season overall, but Okposo’s lack of production doesn’t help the matter. As it stands, Okposo is on pace to have his worst scoring season since 2012-13 unless he picks up the pace over Buffalo’s final 15 games. At $6MM a year for six more seasons to come, the Sabres can only hope that Okposo hasn’t already begun his decline at just 28 years old. Okposo has looked good alongside Ryan O’Reilly for stretches this season, but there hasn’t been enough consistency. He is still a safer asset than many of the other older players on this list, but we’ll have to wait until next year to know for sure whether this was a bad call by Buffalo.

Andrew Ladd

Signed: Seven-year, $38.5MM deal with the New York Islanders

2016-17 stats: 62 games, 19 goals, 6 assists, 25 points, -11 rating, 112 shots, 15:56 ATOI

The Islanders have made an impressive comeback from a dismal beginning to 2016-17, but even if they find a way into the playoffs, that won’t be enough to make them feel good about the deal they gave Ladd this summer. At just 31 years old, no one could have predicted that the veteran winger would fall off a cliff this quickly. After scoring 46 or more points in each of the past six seasons, Ladd will be lucky to reach 3o this year. His $5.5MM cap hit over six more seasons could be yet another big mistake by a team with a long history of issues with long-term contracts. John Tavares and the Islanders can only hope that 2016-17 was a fluke and that they’ll get the real Ladd next season, but don’t count on it.

Loui Eriksson

Signed: Six-year, $36MM deal with the Vancouver Canucks

2016-17 stats: 65 games, 11 goals, 13 assists, 24 points, -9 rating, 132 shots, 18:41 ATOI

From bad to worse, we move from Ladd to Eriksson, who may be the worst signing of the summer at this point in time. After a stellar 63-point season with the Bruins in 2015-16, Eriksson signed a long-term deal worth $6MM annually in Vancouver, and the Canucks brass expected that his addition would keep the championship window opened a bit longer. Instead, the team has faltered and appears headed toward a rebuild. One of the main factors to this collapse has been an utter lack of production out of Eriksson. The Swedish winger supposed to put up huge numbers alongside Daniel and Henrik Sedin, but with a month to go, he has been off the top line for a while now has has less than half the points as he did at this time last year. Whether it is a poor fit or simply poor play, this signing could end up being a long-term headache for the Canucks if Eriksson can’t turn it around in 2017-18.

Frans Nielsen

Signed: Six-year, $31.5MM deal with the Detroit Red Wings

2016-17 stats: 62 games, 13 goals, 17 assists, 30 points, -17 rating, 125 shots, 17:09 ATOI

Though the streak of failures was over? Not yet. Nielsen left the Islanders this summer, like Okposo, to help keep the postseason hopes of the Detroit Red Wings alive, like Eriksson in Vancouver, and like Okposo and Eriksson he has struggled. Because of this, the Red Wings’ historic playoff streak is all but snapped and they are left scratching their heads with a roster full of veterans on long-term contracts who didn’t perform up to snuff in 2016-17. Nielsen may be the worst of the bunch, as his 30 points teeters on the edge of being the worst full season of his career. Beyond just the lack of production, Nielsen’s -17 rating is atrocious, especially compared with his numbers in New York, where he was considered a good two-way center. No one on the Red Wings has exceeded expectations this season – now that Thomas Vanek has been traded – but that’s no excuse for Nielsen. He finally got the big pay day he had always wanted, but if really wants to earn that yearly $5.25MM and stay in Detroit for the remaining five years, his play will need to pick up next season.

David Backes

Signed: Five-year, $30MM deal with the Boston Bruins

2016-17 stats: 59 games, 13 goals, 18 assists, 31 points, even rating, 140 shots, 17:21 ATOI

Finally we get to Backes, who despite scoring less than Okposo and not much more than the other two, can count his first season in Boston as a success. Backes has taken his fair share of criticism in 2016-17, but at the end of the day he has always been a two-way threat more than an offensive threat and has done well in that role this season. Backes’ 31 points is well behind his 45 points in St. Louis last year and 58 the year before, but the 32-year-old has also been asked to move from his old first-line center role to a top-six winger role this season, on a team that hasn’t been great at scoring goals. Despite all that, Backes may still end up with about 40 points, as he has been playing his best hockey of the year of late, now a member of the team’s top line with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand since the Bruins’ coaching change. Like the role Lucic once played in Boston, Backes has provided a dominant physical presence wherever he has played in the lineup this season and has contributed some offense along the way. Might the Bruins regret this contract in year four or five? Possibly, but for now Backes is a good fit and will continue to be this season, postseason, and beyond.

Canucks Notes: Goldobin, Markstrom, Tryamkin

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The Vancouver Canucks will welcome the Montreal Canadiens to town tonight as they look to stay relevant in the playoff race. The team currently sits six points back of St. Louis and though it is a very outside possibility, they want to stay in it as long as possible. They’ll have to shake up their lineup tonight, as Loui Eriksson will be out for “a week to two weeks” according to Willie Desjardins. In his place, the newly acquired Nikolay Goldobin will get a chance to skate with Bo Horvat and Sven Baertschi on the team’s second line. He’s excited about the prospect, and amazed at the amount of media talking to him prior to the game; “It wasn’t like this in San Jose!” he said before going on to say how happy he was to be in Vancouver.

  • The team also relayed the news that Jacob Markstrom is still “at least a week away”, but did skate before the practice by himself. Markstrom hasn’t played since February 16th but would be a big help to the Canucks down the stretch if he can get back. The 27-year old goaltender looks like he’ll get a shot at the starting job next year as Ryan Miller is a free agent this summer. Markstrom’s extension will come into play next year, which will see him paid $3.67MM per year for the next three seasons.
  • 22-year old Nikita Tryamkin has been a revelation for the Canucks this season, as he’s shown his capability to be a part of their defense going forward and showcased his big-hit ability early in the season. He has been out since February 19th though, and still isn’t quite ready to return. Despite skating earlier this morning with the team, he’ll miss his sixth straight game.

Snapshots: Offsides, Chayka, Eriksson

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As we reported yesterday, the GM Meetings have begun in Florida with many things on the agenda. One of them, the definition of an offside play, is one of the most splintering. While some believe that you shouldn’t mess with a rule that has existed for a long time, others realize that if video review is going to continue to take upwards of five minutes just to result in an inconclusive call, something needs to be done. Yesterday, we wrote that there may be a solution changing the definition of possession, but as Dan Rosen of NHL.com writes it may be a different change on the table.

The league is considering going to an NFL-like blue line “plane” which the player just has to have a part of his body in to be considered onside. Currently, because the rule limits a player to having a skate blade on it, it’s often impossible for the referees to determine during the review. If it was just a part of his body—like the ball crossing the goal-line—it would be much easier to tell, and hopefully reduce the review times.

  • John Chayka has been doing things a bit differently than his peers, but doesn’t want to be called a trailblazer. As Rosen writes in another fantastic piece for NHL.com, the league’s youngest GM thinks leaning towards his analytical approach is just the next step in the pursuit of reliable information. He knew, Rosen writes, that young forward Christian Dvorak would turn it around at some point because of the amount of time he had the puck on his stick even when he was struggling. After scoring just 13 points in the first half, Dvorak has 11 in his past 16 games. At just 27-years old, Chayka definitely has a concrete plan when rebuilding the Coyotes, and believes the team can compete in just two years.
  • Loui Eriksson left last night’s Vancouver Canuck game with a lower-body injury, but head coach Willie Desjardins liked the way his players stepped up. If Eriksson is held out for a few games, it will be another great chance for the young Nikolay Goldobin to move up in the lineup and make an impact right away. While Mikael Granlund has shown all season he’s deserved of his role on the top line, Goldobin could potentially stake a claim to the top-six as early as next season.
  • The Minnesota Wild have assigned Tyler Graovac to the AHL today as they get completely healthy. The young forward has played 49 games for the club this season, registering eight points. Though just 23-years old, Graovac has already far surpassed his expectations as a seventh-round pick. While he’s likely never going to be a key contributor to Minnesota’s forward group, he could play a role as they look for a deep playoff run this season.

Jannik Hansen Out For Up To Six Weeks

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The Vancouver Canucks announced today via Twitter that right wing Jannik Hansen is expected to miss 4 – 6 weeks with a knee injury suffered Friday night. Hansen was apparently hurt on a knee-to-knee hit from Mathieu Perreault of Winnipeg. Replays show the hit may also have been late but the league later said that no further action will be taken against the Jets forward.

Hansen, obviously feeling the hit was illegal, immediately dropped his gloves and went after Perreault who refused the invitation.

The Danish forward has appeared in only 18 games this season and has five goals and four assists while averaging 16:11 of ice time per contest. Hansen was starting to heat up and had tallied three times in his previous three games.

The Canucks had been searching much of the season for a right wing to skate with the Sedins, Daniel and Henrik, and Hansen had been filling that role of late. Prized free agent acquisition Loui Eriksson previously failed his audition with the twins before the team turned to Hansen. The 10-year veteran has spent his entire career with the Canucks after being selected by the club in the 9th round of the 2004 draft. Hansen will be a UFA after the 2017-18 season and is currently in the third year of a four-year, $10MM deal he inked with the Canucks in September of 2013.

 

 

 

Pacific Division Notes: Gudbranson, Mueller

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The Vancouver Canucks finsihed 12 points behind Minnesota for the final playoff berth in the Western Conference in 2015-16 and with many of their best players – Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Alex Edler and Ryan Miller – all on the wrong side of 30, many thought it was time for the organization to embrace a full rebuild. Instead Vancouver inked veteran scoring forward Loui Eriksson in free agency and dealt young prospect Jared McCann along with a second-round pick to Florida for experienced defenseman Erik Gudbranson; moves that suggested the front office had every reason of contending in 2016-17. While the team sits just three points out of a playoff berth and with roughly two-thirds of the season remaining, it’s still more likely Vancouver will be a lottery team as opposed to a serious postseason contender. Now, with Gudbranson scheduled to reach restricted free agency next summer and likely in line for a marked raise over his $3.5MM cap hit, Vancouver will have to make a tough decision on what to do with the physical blue liner, as Jason Brough of Pro Hockey Talk writes.

As Brough explains, the Canucks have unexpectedly received strong play from rookie Troy Stecher, who has six points in 18 games, and already have Chris Tanev signed long term. Both are right-side defenders, as is Gudbranson, and a strong case can be made that they deserve top-four slots ahead of the former Florida Panther. In that case, Vancouver GM Jim Benning may not want to pay market value for Gudbranson, assuming he would be no more than a third-pair blue liner.

Benning has indicated that his newfound back end depth may allow him to trade a defenseman for a forward:

“We have depth on defense. We’ve rebuilt our defense. (Nikita) Tryamkin is 22 years old, (Troy) Stecher is 22 years old. (Alex) Edler at 30 is our oldest defenseman, so we have a young, good group back there. We have depth back there. So if we look to make a move, we’d have to use some of our depth on the blue line to add a forward.”

Gudbranson’s value is also difficult to project. The analytical community is not a fan, citing his substandard possession numbers – 48.7% career CF% – and his lack of offense. The towering blue liner has tallied just 48 career points in 336 NHL regular season games; good for a per-82-game-average of 11.7. With the league always looking for more offense and team’s prioritizing puck moving capabilities from its blue liners, there may not be as much of a trade market this summer for a player of Gudbranson’s ilk.

However, teams that value intangibles may be willing to overlook the advanced stats. But first, Vancouver has to decide whether they project Gudbranson to be a top-four defender and if not, are they going to be willing to extend the former third overall pick to a contract with an AAV in excess of $4MM or $5MM.

Elsewhere in the Pacific Division:

  • Defenseman Mirco Mueller has been recalled by the San Jose Sharks, according to the official website of their AHL affiliate, the San Jose Barracuda. Curtis Pashelka of the San Jose Mercury News relays that the team’s head coach, Peter DeBoer, has not yet decided whether Mueller will be in the lineup this evening. However, Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area believes it is likely the former first-round pick will sit out tonight. Mueller has appeared in 50 NHL games with the Sharks, netting one goal and four points. He has yet to suit up this season for the Sharks. Mueller has six points in 17 games with the Barracuda.
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