Free Agent Profile: Thomas Vanek
We are a week into free agency and a top ten member of the class is still available. Thomas Vanek, ranked eighth among PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents, still remains unsigned to the surprise of many. Vanek was a free agent last summer as well, after having the final season of a three-year $19.5MM contract with the Minnesota Wild bought out. While there were questions about his game then as well, and an apparent lack of interest that led to a one-year, $2.6MM deal with the Red Wings (a 60% drop in value from his $6.5MM AAV with the Wild), there was still sufficient enough demand that Detroit felt they had to lock him up right away on July 1st. This year? Not so much.
The strange thing about Vanek’s 2017 scenario is that he is coming off a strong, redeeming campaign. Rather than last summer, when he was fresh off the worst season of his career and a buyout, Vanek instead entered the free agent market this year with a 38-point season under his belt, seven more points in six less games than 2015-16. Vanek played extremely well in Detroit, posting 15 goals and 23 assists in 48 games, creating plenty of buzz around his trade deadline status. Although rumors swirled that Vanek would like to re-sign with the Red Wings, the team nevertheless got what they could for him, sending Vanek to the Florida Panthers for Dylan McIlrath and a third-round draft pick. In Florida, Vanek added two goals and eight assists in 20 games, but it wasn’t enough for the Panthers to make the playoffs and Vanek was out of time to show off for teams in need of scoring this summer.
Apparently, he needed to do more in 2016-17. With 697 points in 885 NHL games, Vanek’s history as an elite scorer is well established. A two-time 40-goal scorer and power play wizard, who has twice in his career topped a point-per-game pace for a whole season, there is little doubt about Vanek’s track record of creating offense. However, there are questions as to just how fast that offensive ability is slowing down. Vanek is certainly no longer a threat for 40 or even 30 goals, nor does he sit atop the league in man-up production any more. While he seemingly proved in Detroit that he can still deliver 40 or 50 points, he also looked slower up and down the ice and lacked the same quickness and creativity in the offensive zone that he used to have. The lack of interest could also be due to a noticeable drop-off in defensive ability. Vanek was never a Selke candidate, but he has always played a sound two-way game. As he has slowed down the past two years, his defensive stats have dropped off and he often looked solely focused with keeping up on offense, rather than playing a complete game. Endurance, and all that it entails in the back-and-forth game of hockey, simply seems to be an issue for Vanek and is unlikely to improve.
Nonetheless, 48 points is 48 points and there is a reason why Vanek was ranked #8 out of all free agents. The shooting ability and offensive instincts are still there for the 33-year-old, and 45-year-old Jaromir Jagr is still making that skill set work in the NHL. It’s only a matter of time before Vanek signs somewhere, but just like last summer, it appears as if it could be another bargain for a player whose age and pace of play seemed to be blown out of proportion while his experience and offensive contribution are under-rated.
Potential Suitors
We originally projected that Vanek would return to the Florida Panthers, who were in need of scoring help, especially with Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith now in Las Vegas. However, Dale Tallon and the Panthers went in a different direction, bringing back Evgeni Dadonov from the KHL and inking a different veteran scorer, Radim Vrbata. Like Vrbata and Jagr, Vanek seems best-suited for one-year or short-term deals the rest of the way, especially if he’s struggling to establish his value. Who could use a short-term scorer? A return to Detroit could make sense. The fit worked out great and there were talks of an extension prior to the deadline trade, so the two sides might see if Lightning can strike twice. The Red Wings lack much cap space and should be rebuilding, but GM Ken Holland might have missed that memo. Another possibility could be the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks are still a contender out West, just one year removed from a Stanley Cup appearance, but have had a very quiet off-season and just lost a high-scoring veteran winger in Patrick Marleau. This year’s Western Conference Cup qualifier, the Nashville Predators, traded away a key forward in Colin Wilson and have more than enough cap space to squeeze Vanek in if they so choose. The Boston Bruins could use another scoring threat in the top nine and they might not mind having Vanek, notorious for his strong play against Boston during his years with the Sabres and Canadiens, on their side for once. Finally, don’t rule out the Los Angeles Kings, who certainly don’t need to get slower, but who surely need more scoring with few dependable options left on the market.
Expected Contract
We predicted that Vanek would sign a one-year, $3MM deal this off-season, a logical next step after a bounce back season on a one-year, $2.6MM contract. That range still seems reasonable, unless the market really is as quiet as it seems and no one is willing to pony up that kind of money. The affordable contracts signed by aging scorers like Kris Versteeg (#26) and Ales Hemsky (#44) combined with the availability of Jagr (#13), Drew Stafford (#21), and Jiri Hudler (#40), doesn’t help Vanek’s cause. He’s not ready to retire and he won’t move overseas, but don’t be surprised if Vanek remains unsigned, holding out for market value, before finally signing for less than he did last summer.
Marek Mazanec Clears Waivers
- Marek Mazanec has cleared waivers, giving the Nashville Predators even more leverage in his soon to be scheduled arbitration hearing. The Maple Leafs employed a similar tactic with Peter Holland last season before his arbitration hearing, eventually signing him to a $1.3MM deal that was closer to their submitted $900K offer than his requested $2.1MM. The Minnesota Wild did a similar thing with Jordan Schroeder before getting him to agree to a two-way deal. It had been previously suggested that the Predators were going to move on from Mazanec, but after issuing him a qualifying offer and him filing for arbitration, it’s unclear where the two sides stand.
Marek Mazanec Placed On Waivers
- Marek Mazanec finds himself on waivers today according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports, just a day after filing for arbitration with the team. The Predators were expected to part ways with Mazanec after signing Anders Lindback and Matt O’Connor, making his arbitration filing odd in the first place. Though Lavoie did not expand on the transaction, the waivers could precede a release from the organization though why the team extended him a qualifying offer in the first place is still unclear.
RFAs Headed For Payday In Arbitration
As the list of the players who have filed for arbitration was released earlier today by the NHLPA, a few names stick out as those due a meaningful raise. Arbitration is a tricky process to reliably predict, but it’s a safe bet these names will see their cap hit rise substantially.
Brian Dumoulin – D – Pittsburgh Penguins
There was a time when the young Dumoulin was a well-kept secret in the league, overshadowed by the far flashier play of Kris Letang. Dumoulin’s accolades this last playoff year certainly didn’t go unnoticed, and as the lone defensive defenseman in their core group, he probably holds the greatest job security on the team’s blueline. He doesn’t put up points – only one goal in the last two seasons, but he blocks shots and drives possession while eating a ton of minutes against top competition. As analytics are utilized more and more, his case only gets stronger. A contract well over $4 MM is certainly looking possible.
Colton Parayko – D – St. Louis Blues
This is the name seen most commonly associated with offer-sheets this summer, and with good reason. Parayko plays with the mentality of an old-time defenseman, but he can skate quite well for a large (6’6) man. He’s only had two seasons in the NHL, but he’s impressed since he first took the ice. Again, he isn’t a massive offensive force (he scored 3 goals last season), but he’s already averaging over 21 minutes a night with near equal starts in both the offensive and defensive zone. He’ll be hurt by the quantifiable stats factor, but he’s a big body with a rare right-handed shot to boot. This contract could look relatively cheap compared to his next, if he continues along this course. He should cost around $5.5 MM.
Ondrej Palat – F – Tampa Bay Lightning
Others will look to the undersized center Tyler Johnson as most likely to get a payday. But don’t over look Palat’s consistency – it may give him an edge with arbiters. Johnson does have his 72 point campaign to lean on, but that was now two full seasons ago. The fact that both players couldn’t break 20 goals in the last two seasons will bring their prices back down to Earth. Palat has grown into his role on the team and back-checks with a ferocity not often seen in younger stars. Johnson is no slouch either – they’ve both accumulated Selke votes over the years. These are two pivotal pieces of the Lightning, and their upcoming contracts were a big reason Jonathan Drouin was traded away to Montreal. GM Steve Yzerman will happily lock both up, but he will be hoping for figures under the $6 MM mark.
Viktor Arvidsson – F – Nashville Predators
This would have been an unlikely name on such a list even last December, when you consider how truly meteoric Arvidsson’s rise was. His value in arbitration will be deeply interesting – the shifty winger has played himself into the core of the team within a season. He really only has 2016-17 and the long playoff run to hang his hat on, as he scored only 16 points through 56 games in 2015-16. This year was a remarkable offensive explosion, with 30 goals and 31 assists. At only 5’9, Arvidsson has really shocked many onlookers by how easily he’s adapted to the physicality of the NHL game. His talent has never been in question, and with his production now well-established, it’s safe to believe he’s going to get a cushy award. How bad the damage will be is going to affect Nashville’s cap going forward – I suspect over $5 MM, but there are few comparables.
Mikael Granlund – F – Minnesota Wild
Granlund is perhaps slightly more enticing league wide than fellow Wild RFA Nino Niederreiter. He’s a marginally more cerebral player, and he plays the valuable center position. Neiderreiter is the more natural goal-scorer and larger frame, but Granlund has better PPG and has broken 30 assists thrice. Both players will get paid, as they both broke 25 goals last season and will be important pieces in the State of Hockey for some time. I think the more interesting thing to watch here is whether the Wild play it safe with Granlund and take a one year deal, or attempt to lock him up for longer. This was the first season he really scored with any consistency, but the Wild have shown their faith in the player by continually giving him over 17 minutes of icetime even when he struggled to produce. A one-year would easily command over $5 MM, whereas a longer deal could bring cost down.
Eeli Tolvanen Signs With Jokerit Helsinki Of KHL
Eeli Tolvanen, the Nashville Predators’ first-round pick from the recent draft, has signed on with Jokerit of the KHL for the 2017-18 season. The deal also includes an option for 2018-19, and will provide a landing spot for Tolvanen after his earlier issues. The Finnish winger was planning on staying in North America and joining Boston College, but failed to meet their admissions standards and was rejected.
Offseason Keys: Nashville Predators
While expansion was the early headline in what will be a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months to come. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the Nashville Predators.
While things didn’t get off to too good of a start for Nashville as they narrowly made it into the playoffs, they saved their best for last, giving the Penguins all they could handle in the Stanley Cup Final before Pittsburgh prevailed in the end. Now, GM David Poile is tasked with trying to put the final pieces in place to help the Preds take that last step forward. Here are some of the ways he can try to accomplish just that.
Replace Neal
Unable to strike a protection deal with Vegas, the Predators were hit hard at the expansion draft as they lost winger James Neal to the Golden Knights. While Neal hasn’t blossomed into a high end top liner like some had hoped for, he has still hit the 20 goal market in every season of his nine year career which makes him one of the more consistent secondary scorers out there.
While Nashville’s forward depth stepped up in the playoffs, it’s tough to expect someone to step in and take over that level of production right away. They have youngsters like Kevin Fiala or Pontus Aberg that could potentially fit the bill but the more prudent course of action would be to find a veteran replacement and allow the youngsters to ease their way into that role (or wait for more injuries to strike).
To that end, Poile has shown considerable interest in trading for Matt Duchene this offseason. However, he hasn’t been willing to move one of his top four blueliners which has stalled talks. The recent signing of Scott Hartnell basically replaces the production of Colin Wilson and with most of the top free agents now signed, the trade route is looking like a likelier course of action now whether it winds up being Duchene or someone else.
New Deal For Johansen
One of the big questions that came up when the Predators and Blue Jackets swapped center Ryan Johansen and defenseman Seth Jones back in early 2016 was Johansen’s contract situation as he was in the middle of his bridge deal. For starters, he was going to be due a sizable qualifying offer of $6MM, one they recently extended to retain his rights as expected.
The bigger potential concern is where Johansen sits with regards to unrestricted free agency. Although he’s only 24, the fact that he has six years of service time already makes him UFA eligible as of next summer. If he wants to go that route next offseason, he can simply file for arbitration next week, go through that process, and hit the open market as a number one center in his prime.
Johansen has fit in quite nicely since joining Nashville and is their top pivot, one that they can’t afford to lose. Because the arbitration filing deadline is fast approaching though, Poile will likely want to make a big push to get a long-term deal done in the coming days to get rid of any uncertainty as quickly as possible. The early asking price to get that deal done is believed to be $8.5MM.
Short-Term Or Long-Term For Arvidsson?
Winger Viktor Arvidsson was one of the biggest surprises in the league in 2016-17. After putting up just eight goals and eight assists in 56 games with Nashville the year before, he became a legitimate go-to scorer, tallying 31 goals and 30 assists in 81 games this past season. He did so at the perfect time as he will hit restricted free agency this weekend.
Poile’s going to have a decision to make with regards to what type of contract to offer the 24 year old. He sits three years away from unrestricted status so a bridge deal may only be a one year offer. Given that Arvidsson is only a year removed from spending time in the minors, the safer play is to go short-term and see if his 61 points was a one-time thing or a sign of things to come.
On the flip side, if management is sold on him being able to provide a comparable level of production down the road, this is the time to try to lock Arvidsson up on what could prove to be a team-friendly deal later on. With nearly $20MM in cap space per CapFriendly, they have the financial flexibility to pick which way they want to go with him. Because of the big leap in scoring this season, his RFA case is one of the more intriguing ones to watch for this offseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Emelin Officially Traded To Nashville
The Nashville Predators have officially acquired veteran defenseman Alexei Emelin from the Vegas Golden Knights for a 2019 third-round pick, according to the Nashville Predators. According to TSN’s Pierre LeBrun, Vegas will retain just under $1.2MM of Emelin’s salary on their books.
Emelin was recently acquired by Vegas through the expansion draft as they took the 31-year-old blueliner from Montreal with the expectation they would flip him for future picks, which they did. Emelin boasts a $4.1MM salary for this year before he hits unrestricted free agency next summer. A defensive defenseman, Emelin scored just two goals and eight assists on the season for the Canadiens. With this move, he will rejoin former Canadiens teammate P.K. Subban in Nashville.
There were thoughts the Golden Knights might have trouble trading Emelin, who many question to be a top-4 defender, along with his contract, which proved to be an issue if Vegas had to retain almost $1.2MM of his salary. However, a third-round pick is a quality return for someone who they thought they might have to hold onto. The 2019 third-rounder gives Vegas 12 picks in the 2019 draft and seven in the first three rounds.
Darren Dreger of TSN was the first to report the deal.
Predators Sign Goaltenders Anders Lindback And Matt O’Connor
In two separate team announcements, the Western Conference champion Nashville Predators revealed that they have added some depth in net behind Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros in the wake of parting ways with Marek Mazanec. A familiar name is returning in Anders Lindback, a 2008 draft selection and Rinne’s backup from 2010 to 2012, who has since been an NHL journeyman and spent this past season in the Swedish Hockey League. Lindback signed a two-way deal worth the minimum $650K at the NHL level. Matt O’Connor, the former Boston University star who has spent the past few years in the Ottawa Senators organization, signed a similar deal. The 24-year-old will also play on a two-way contract worth $650K in the NHL and only slightly less than Lindback in the AHL.
Nashville Predators Sign Scott Hartnell
The Nashville Predators will bring back a very familiar face, inking Scott Hartnell to a one-year deal worth just $1MM. This comes just after the Columbus Blue Jackets bought out the final two years of his contract, making him a free agent. Hartnell of course was drafted by the Predators sixth overall in 2000, and played the first six years of his pro career there.
Hartnell then moved on to Philadelphia and stayed there for another seven years before ending up in Columbus for the past three campaigns. He has had a steady career until he struggled this past year. His 13 goals and 24 assists are his lowest numbers (not including 2012-13) since the 2002-03 season when he was with Nashville. To make matters worse, Hartnell scored no points in four playoff games this year. One reason for his declining production was the fact that Columbus began giving more playing time to their younger players, cutting his own.
Now the 35-year-old wing will rejoin Predators’ head coach Peter Laviolette, who he worked with in Philadelphia from 2009-2013. Hartnell has never won a Stanley Cup championship, but went to the Stanley Cup finals once, back in 2010 with Laviolette as his coach. Hartnell will try to rebound from an underwhelming season, despite scoring 51 goals combined in the previous two years with Columbus.
2017 NHL Free Agency Tracker
Stay with PHR for all of the free agency signings this off-season. As of noon ET on July 1st, unrestricted free agency is open, but not before many extensions earlier in June. This page serves to organize everything in one spot, and are linked to the PHR story that corresponds with the signing. All July signings will be separated by date while June signings are organized alphabetically by team. It will be updated as soon as stories post.
Please note that signings on this list start on June 12.
July 1st:
- Anaheim re-signs Cam Fowler (8 years/$52MM)
- Anaheim signs Ryan Miller (2 years/$4MM)
- Arizona signs Adam Clendening (1 year/$650K)
- Boston signs Paul Postma (1 year/$725K)
- Buffalo signs Benoit Pouliot (1 year/$1.15MM)
- Buffalo signs Chad Johnson (1 year/$2.5MM)
- Carolina signs Justin Williams (2 years/$9MM)
- Chicago signs Patrick Sharp (1 year/$1MM)
- Chicago signs J-F Berube (2 years/$3MM)
- Chicago signs Jordan Oesterle (2 years/$1.3MM)
- Colorado signs Jonathan Bernier (1 year/$2.75MM)
- Dallas signs Martin Hanzal (3 years/$14.25MM)
- Dallas signs Tyler Pitlick (3 years/$3MM)
- Detroit signs Trevor Daley (3 years/$9.534MM)
- Florida signs Radim Vrbata (1 year/$2.5MM)
- Los Angeles signs Mike Cammalleri (1 year)
- Los Angeles signs Cal Petersen ( 2 year ELC)
- Los Angeles signs Christian Folin (1 year/$850K)
- Minnesota signs Ryan Murphy (1 year/$700k)
- Minnesota signs Landon Ferraro (2 years/$1.4MM)
- Minnesota signs Kyle Quincey (1 year/$1.25MM)
- Minnesota signs Cal O’Reilly (2 years/$1.4MM)
- Montreal signs Kyle Alzner (5 years/$22.5MM)
- Montreal signs Byron Froese
- Montreal signs Peter Holland
- Nashville signs Nick Bonino (4 years)
- Nashville signs Scott Hartnell (1 year/$1MM)
- Nashville signs Anders Lindback (1 year/$650K)
- Nashville signs Matt O’Connor (1 year/$650K)
- New Jersey signs Brian Boyle (2 years/$5.1MM)
- NY Rangers sign Ondrej Pavelec (1 year/$1.3MM)
- NY Rangers sign Kevin Shattenkirk (4 year/$26.6MM)
- Ottawa signs Nate Thompson (2 years/$3.3MM)
- Philadelphia re-signs Mike Vecchione (2 years/$1.88MM)
- Pittsburgh signs Antti Niemi (1 year/$700K)
- Pittsburgh signs Matt Hunwick (3 years/$6.75MM
- San Jose re-signs Martin Jones (6 years/$34.5MM)
- San Jose re-signs Marc-Edouard Vlasic (8 years/$56MM)
- San Jose re-signs Joe Thornton
- St. Louis signs Beau Bennett (1 year/$650K)
- St. Louis signs Chris Thorburn (2 years/$1.88MM)
- St. Louis re-signs Oskar Sundqvist (1 year/$650K)
- Tampa Bay signs Dan Girardi (2 years/$6MM)
- Toronto signs Ron Hainsey (2 years/$3.25MM)
- Toronto signs Curtis McElhinney (1 year/$850K)
- Toronto signs Dominic Moore (1 year/$1MM)
- Toronto signs Garret Sparks
- Winnipeg signs Dmitri Kulikov (3 years/$13MM)
- Winnipeg signs Steve Mason (2 years/$8.2MM)
- Vancouver signs Sam Gagner (3 years/$9.45MM)
- Vancouver signs Michael Del Zotto (2 years/$6MM)
- Vancouver signs Anders Nilsson (2 years/$5MM)