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Hischier Signs 3-Year Entry-Level Contract With New Jersey

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The 2017 Draft’s 1st-overall pick, Nico Hischier, has signed a 3-year entry level contract with the New Jersey Devils, per AP’s Stephen Whyno. The contract is worth $950,000 and includes signing bonuses. It was also announced that he will wear #13 in New Jersey, after his hockey idol Pavel Datsyuk.

Hischier is a dynamic forward, with amazing playmaking abilities. Playing for Halifax last season, he put up 38 goals and 86 points through 57 games. His phenomenal play in the World Junior Championship captured the attention of the hockey world and likely propelled him over the edge in consideration for top prospect of the class. As the highest ranked Swiss player ever drafted, expectations will be high for Hischier from the start. New Jersey had an exceptionally anemic offense last season, and will need to slot him as a top-six center immediately. Hischier already has the hockey IQ and the natural skill to be a force in the league, and will be an early favorite among Calder predictions. That said, he is less physically well-rounded than the #2 pick of the draft, Philadelphia’s Nolan Patrick. He will need to fill out his 6’1 frame and train properly in order to get a solid beginning in October.

It should be an interesting camp for Hischier, as he will also need to find linemates with whom he can gel. Taylor Hall is a solid bet, as he can blitz defenses with his speed and tenacity, and is a former #1 overall pick himself. Marcus Johansson or Kyle Palmieri could slot in on his right wing, and it’s unclear as to where Adam Henrique will fit. Hischier would likely thrive best beside a pure finisher, but the Devils don’t really have that. Chemistry in the absence of that sniper will be important to his success. Still, Hischier will almost certainly put up respectable numbers and grow as his rookie season comes along. He can score quite easily with the hard, heavy shot he possesses – and Hischier never showed a reluctance to fire the biscuit either. He averaged over 4 shots a game for Halifax.

At $950,000, Hischier’s cap hit is the highest allowable for an entry-level contract. Consequently, his bonuses will be a key component in determining his actual pay. The Devils are no where near a cap or contract crunch, as this contract only puts them at a puny 34 in the entire organization.

Detroit’s Contract Pitfalls

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Detroit is currently dealing with one of the more contentious RFA negotiations in recent memory, as Tomas Tatar has refused a multi-year deal and is not happy with the franchise’s perception of him. The team also needs to negotiate a new contract for Andreas Athanasiou, a speedy center with flashy hands and a lot of upside. The major problem, however, is the cap space with which GM Ken Holland has to operate.

Detroit’s perilous situation is bizarre primarily because it has been largely self-inflicted, and unnecessarily so. The team already has an under-performing and vastly overpaid defensive group, but decided to bring in declining veteran Trevor Daley to a $3.17 MM, three-year deal. This places the team with $2.28 MM left in cap space while still needing to lock up Athanasiou and Tatar. It should be noted that 37 year-old Johan Franzen has been on long-term injured reserve since 2015, so they should be able to allocate his $3.95 MM salary to that reserve upon resumption of the season. Considering the apparently lax interpretation of the off-season rules, this effectively allows Holland $6.23 MM left to sign his two players. Theoretically, it could be enough, but in reality money will need to move out.

Tatar turned down a 5-year deal worth $5 MM per season, according to Michigan Live’s Ansar Khan. If that AAV isn’t enough, which it appears not to be, Holland is in a bit of a bind. Tatar was their only player to break 20 goals (25), and finished third on the team in points behind only Henrik Zetterberg and Gustav Nyquist. His offensive capabilities are pretty essential to a team hurting so badly for consistent production. Tatar wants his $6 MM, and there’s a good chance he’ll get it. Holland could try to deal Tatar before his arbitration date, but the return might not be as productive as Holland would like. If the parties do go to arbitration, Tatar will only need to sign for one season, which would almost assure his eventual departure.

Athanasiou will come cheaper and likely on a shorter term. If Holland can secure the player for under $2 MM, it would be a boon. The wiser move would be to try to extend the player on a longer deal in hopes that he becomes a bargain in the near future. Unfortunately, with the Tatar situation taking precedence, it seems an unlikely scenario. Even still, his measly $2 MM would put the Wings over the cap ceiling, even with Franzen on LTIR. So who would be on the outs?

Petr Mrazek was almost lost to the Vegas Golden Knights through the expansion draft, and with Jared Coreau playing stellar in the Grand Rapids, he seems the most likely candidate to move. He only costs $4 MM and after his down season, Holland would like to give Jimmy Howard the reigns back. Unfortunately, the Mrazek “attitude” rumors may have lessened his trade value. Perhaps even more importantly, the goaltending carousel has ground to a halt, with essentially every team securing a starter for the coming year.

Justin Abdelkader is on a really poor contract, complete with a no-trade clause, worth $4.25 MM AAV for the next six seasons. After a seven goal season, however, there won’t be many teams chomping at the bit for his services. Darren Helm didn’t fare much better offensively, but with a $3.85 MM contract and only four years on his deal, he’s not entirely unmovable. Again, he has a no-trade clause to complicate matters. There are the defensemen, such as Jonathan Ericsson, but with three years left and already declining at 33, he would also net little in return. Luke Glendening is an interesting option, as he is the cheapest of this group. Despite his two-way prowess, a forward with 3 goals in a season, even at a mere $1.8 MM, will still be a tough sell.

Ultimately, the Wings have overpaid a number of players and the contracts are for far too long. The amount of no-trade clauses handed out is an absurd hindrance when a team is trying to rebuild or retool. With 8 players on the roster with some sort of movement-limiting clause, Holland has few options to give himself relief. The worst case scenario would be to lose Tatar, but the team has truly painted itself into a corner regardless of who is shipped out. With an aging defense and an uninspiring offense, the Wings’ return to relevance will only be delayed from here on in.

Vegas Signs Reinhart And Leipsic To Two-Year Deals

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The Vegas Golden Knights have announced the signings of Griffin Reinhart and Brendan Leipsic to two-year contracts, per the team’s twitter. Reinhart’s deal is worth $800,000 AAV, while Leipsic’s is only for $650,000 a season.

Reinhart is a former first-round pick, picked fourth overall in 2012 by the New York Islanders. He was moved to Edmonton for a first-round and second-round pick. He under-performed in Alberta, only playing 29 games total. His Corsi For Relative % was a poor -3.3%, and he often struggled with the puck on his stick, flubbing simple zone exits. With only two career assists to his name, he has a lot to prove in the NHL. That said, there was a reason he was so highly touted in his draft class. He’s mobile for a 6’4 defenseman and has tons of room to grow at only 23 years old. He has shown a solid pass from time to time and has the potential to be a solid top-4 defender if he can learn to adjust to the intellectual pace of the NHL game. Watching him down the tail stretch of the season and in his one playoff game in relief due to injuries, he’s not a lost cause. Reinhart has grown physically and still has a decent skill level. Vegas will hope to have struck gold with this player, but he’ll have to beat out other promising young defensemen in the system in order to gain heavy playing time.

Leipsic is a more curious move, as he is quite undersized and is no sure bet to crack an NHL roster. That said, he had a 120-point season with the Portland Winterhawks and adjusted well to his time with the AHL Marlies, potting 50 points twice. The 5’10 winger was an add-on in a trade between Toronto and Nashville a few years back, and has only dressed for 6 games total for the Leafs. Still, he’s only 23, and is a sparkplug on every shift. He moves quickly and has decent hands, but is most likely destined for an AHL scoring role. He’ll have the opportunity to flourish in Vegas if he proves himself early, considering that team’s lack of proven offensive depth.

Neither player had a particularly strong case for a raise, so this news is not much of a shock. Still, Vegas is locking up the players it claimed in the expansion draft and banking on younger players to step up this season.

Penguins’ 3rd-Line Center Options

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With the loss of Nick Bonino to Nashville via free agency, the reigning champion Pittsburgh Penguins have a gaping hole down the middle. For the first time in over a decade, the center position is now one of relative weakness. It’s always a possibility that Matt Cullen decides to re-sign for one more year, but he will not be able to carry the load of a typical 3rd-line center. Cullen showed signs of slowing down toward the tail-end of the team’s playoff run, and he was only averaging 13:55 a game through the regular season. At 41 years old, he simply won’t be a viable long-term option. The Penguins likely have high hopes for Zach Aston-Reese to make a push in training camp, but he is an unknown quantity at the NHL level. GM Jim Rutherford had 5 potential trade options in the works prior to July 1st, according to the very reliable Josh Yohe of DKPittsburghSports. Talks either fizzled or were put on the back-burner, but one might imagine the number of available targets is far fewer now. With Dallas’ three-year signing of Radek Faksa, there is one fewer name left for consideration. Vegas seems to be content with merely flipping defensemen from here on in, although names such as Cody Eakin and William Karlsson shouldn’t be thrown out entirely. Erik Haula is likely a pipe-dream, but he’s another possible target. Matt Duchene was linked for a time, but between the high cost and the stubbornness of Colorado GM Joe Sakic to make a move, he seems incredibly unlikely.

Who are the safest bets for an off-season move? Or will Pittsburgh enter the season with someone unproven slotting behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin?

Tyler Bozak

Bozak has made tons of sense since his name was first mentioned. A lot has been made of his relationship with Phil Kessel. When they played on a line together in Toronto, Kessel saw some of his best career production. More than that however – the Leafs are in a bit of cap pinch as they will look to free up dollars for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in the next two seasons. They certainly aren’t in any hurry to drop underneath the ceiling due to LTIR intricacies, but moving out Bozak’s $4.2 MM for this next season would be a forward looking move. If he’s due a raise, it’s likely they’ll lose him for far less, as his contract expires at the end of 2017-18. The move makes sense for Pittsburgh because of the Kessel relationship, but also because he fits the mold of the Pittsburgh squad. He’s a solid skater, sees the ice well, and hustles back into his own zone. His playmaking abilities would be a wonderful fit on the cheap to aid the high-powered offense, and the player would be a positive possession asset to remove the stress from the bigger guns. Bozak does have a modified no-trade clause, but it’s hard to see Pittsburgh being included on his list of non-tradeable teams.

Jordan Staal

Staal saw a lot of success in Pittsburgh before he was traded away to Carolina at the 2012 draft. Jordan was traded to that team in particular due to his desire to player with his older brother Eric Staal. Seeing as Eric is no longer in the picture, it would make sense that Staal might be open to a Pittsburgh reunion. Staal is one of the better defensive centers in the league, and has been forced to take a more uncomfortably offensive role in Carolina. Staal’s biggest downside is that he isn’t the most agile skater, but he’s not any slower than Nick Bonino was. That said, he can play the shutdown role and be a total nuisance for top opponents. Rutherford loves the player, as he was the GM of Carolina when they initially acquired the player, for a hefty sum of Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin, and a 1st-round pick (which became Derrick Pouilot). According to Yohe, Staal is apparently open to a return, and the nostalgic element of the team’s fanbase is clamoring for this to happen. Rutherford stated on a local radio segment with Ron Cook that “to his knowledge he (Staal) isn’t available”, but he’s played coy with the media in the past.

Out Of Left-Field

Rutherford has been known to throw the hockey world for a loop with some of his trades. The James Neal–Patric Hornqvist trade shocked just about everyone, and the Phil Kessel trade is still being discussed to this day. If there’s one thing we should expect from him, it’s the unexpected. There are a few lesser options out there for Rutherford to explore, and management may want to have the Conor Sheary and Brian Dumoulin contracts put to paper before making any sort of transaction. It seems unlikely that anything will happen until those deals get done. Rutherford told Jason Mackey of the Post-Gazette that there are “hundreds of names on (his list)”, and that it’s “a patient process”. Could Detroit be willing to move Andreas Athanasiou? Could Bryan Little be pried from Winnipeg for a young defenseman? It’s hard to speculate as to where exactly management have set their sights, but Rutherford is generally willing to overpay to “get his man”. There is the slight likelihood that they enter the season with that hole left unfilled, but it’s hard to imagine. Until more dominoes fall, Rutherford is likely to bide his team and search for the correct deal.

Eastern Notes: Liljegren, Bozak, Athanasiou

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Toronto’s first round pick Timothy Liljegren has impressed in development camp with his size and skill, working with Stephane Robidas. At a healthy 6’4 and after being projected to go much earlier, some Leafs fans have hoped that they might get a glimpse of the young Swede on the backend. Outside of pre-season, that doesn’t seem to be the case. In all likelihood, it seems Liljegren will be headed back to Sweden or to the Ontario Hockey League, according to his own comments on NHL.com. The Leafs’ defense is particularly deep, so it was always a long-shot to see him crack the squad. Management won’t look to rush him into a roster spot, and that seems a wise decision. Regardless of his very apparent ability, further development at a lower level will only improve his staying power in the NHL.

  • As mentioned in an earlier PHR post, the New York Post’s Larry Brooks mentioned Tyler Bozak as a potential target for the Rangers. But it also seems probable he could land elsewhere. Many teams are on the hunt for cheap center help, and with Toronto looking towards their future contract obligations, Bozak seems rather expendable. Pittsburgh is absolutely in need, and he would be a phenomenal fit with Phil Kessel, considering their past chemistry. Another team who is very willing to make moves at the moment is Arizona. They already stole a valuable player in Derek Stepan, but GM John Chayka seems adept in transaction and eager to engage the trade market. Adding Bozak would add some two-way ability and allow other players, such as Christian Dvorak, to slot back into more natural roles. After apparently missing out on the Matt Duchene sweepstakes, Bozak could even be a decent option for 3rd pivot in Nashville. Bozak will draw lots of attention if and/or when he is shopped.
  • The Red Wings are not looking to make many moves at the moment, according to Michigan Live’s Ansar Khan. The Tomas Tatar negotiations are apparently not going well. Khan believes the team could look to move him later on, but both parties expect him to play the bulk of the season before that option is considered. Andreas Athanasiou would be another option to move, but again Khan believes the team will see how well it does in battling for a post-season berth before heading in that direction. GM Ken Holland seems to be relatively content with the group he has, and with few off-season moves it could be another rough year in Detroit if certain players don’t make incredible strides.

RFA Arbitration Hearings Begin Soon

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Although it’s likely that many of these restricted free-agents come to terms with their teams before the hearing dates, the list of set dates has been released. Last year, only one RFA actually made it to their date without a deal. We should see more players actually make it to the arbitration process this year, but how many is unclear. It could be zero, or it could be five.

That said, these arbitration hearings begin in only 11 days, so the crunch is on. Teams will hope to hammer out details with players they hope to lock in for longer than two years. PHR published a preview highlighting players most likely to see a massive pay-raise, but arbitration by its nature can be rather capricious.

According theScore’s Cody Wilkins, the set dates are as follows:

 

July 20 – Tyler Johnson (Tampa Bay), Colton Parayko (St. Louis), Tomas Tatar (Detroit)

July 21 – Ryan Dzingel (Ottawa), Michael Chaput (Vancouver)

July 22 – Micheal Ferland (Calgary), Viktor Arvidsson (Nashville)

July 24 – Austin Watson (Nashville), Brian Dumoulin (Pittsburgh)

July 25 – Joey LaLeggia (Edmonton), Mika Zibanejad (NY Rangers), Ondrej Palat (Tampa Bay)

July 26 – Jordan Martinook (Arizona), Ryan Spooner (Boston)

July 27 – Robin Lehner (Buffal0), Marek Mazanec (Nashville)

July 28 – Jean-Gabriel Pageau (Ottawa)

July 31 – Matt Nieto (Colorado)

August 1 – Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg), Reid Boucher (Vancouver)

August 2 – Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders), Kevin Gravel (Los Angeles)

August 3 – Nate Schmidt (Vegas), Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota)

August 4 – Mikael Granlund (Minnesota), Conor Sheary (Pittsburgh), Nathan Beaulieu (Buffalo)

Free Agent Profile: Jaromir Jagr

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Not many believed that Jagr would be left without a contract over a full week into July. While many Florida fans believed GM Dale Tallon was looking to impress his vision on the franchise in an aggressive way, a return at a reduced cost seemed possible. Barring that, Jagr was sure to draw interest from offense-starved squads. He was listed as our 13th best available UFA for a reason, and yet, there’s been little to no chatter on the Czech star.

Jagr has seen a dip in his value, undeniably. He scored 11 less goals than the previous season; that said, he’s still a lock for 40 points. He’s slowed down quite noticeably, and one can only imagine that is the crux of his issue in attracting suitors. His vision and hands are still world-class, but his speed is an encumbrance to whichever line he’s on. That said, he’s a positive impact player in terms of analytics and fancy possession stats. If you look at his HERO chart (a handy bar-graph representation of advanced stats such as shots suppressed and generated), he performs well above the “prototypical” second-liner. No one in the analytics community seems to understand how such a consistent performer can be left unclaimed at this date. People constantly criticize players like Jagr for poor defensive qualities. There is an element of truth to these claims, as he is certainly hustling harder going north than south. But results, and actual goals against for his lines over the years, show that perhaps he knows something we don’t.

The game is changing, and with faster teams heading deeper into the playoffs, Jagr’s ability to fend off attackers and maintain a cycle is less valuable than it was previously. More rush play, more dump and chase, and less east-west movement through the neutral zone is the way many teams are hoping to push the pac and tilt the ice in their favor. Signing Jagr doesn’t fit that trendy ideology, and that’s the main holdup at this juncture. The amount of teams who are willing to slow the game down, even just on special teams, are becoming fewer and fewer. Ultimately, he will find a home, but it could be a drastic reduction in pay and icetime. Jagr was already getting acclimated to a sheltered role with short shifts, but he may be even more of a utility skater in his new home.

If for nothing else, Jagr is a magician on the powerplay and can pass the puck with ease. He would be a wonderful asset merely as a leader, whose experience and off-ice attributes would benefit the growth of younger players.

Potential Suitors

We originally projected that Jagr would return to the Florida Panthers, as we also believed would be the case for Thomas Vanek. We were wrong on both fronts, as Dale Tallon has opted instead for a massive roster shakeup. Jagr quipped on Twitter that he had no calls this July 1st, although that claim may merely be an attempt to garner greater interest.

A New Jersey reunion might be in the cards. They finished 29th in goals for and Jagr could be relegated to 3rd-line duty with a healthy roster after all of GM Ray Shero’s shuffling. He’s certainly not going to lead the team in scoring, but in the tough Metro division it’s difficult to see them making the playoffs anyway. In what should be a year to build upon, and with multiple youngsters (Nico Hischier, Pavel Zacha) looking to cement themselves in the league, what better role model than Jagr to provide leadership and calm? The team could also do to add NHL proven forwards – they have the second fewest organizational contracts at 33, and many are not ready for prime-time.

Although they’re not the ideal landing spot, the New York Islanders seemingly always need a little extra fire power. They too have the disadvantage of trying to survive in the high-flying Metro, and Tavares could use another piece on the powerplay to bring it back to respectability (they finished with a 15% conversion rate in 2016-17). Again, his leadership abilities on a relatively young squad would provide a good example. He can also still manufacture chances on his own, and outside of Tavares, the team still struggles with that for long stretches. Pair him with one of their many two-way forwards, such as Josh Bailey, and his minimal defensive shortcomings won’t be as impactful. Cap room on an internal basis is an issue, but Jagr is getting cheaper by the day.

Many teams could take a flier on a one year deal. At 45 years-old, it would be highly unlikely to make a significant commitment to him. Arizona and Colorado could both certainly use the offensive help, but they both moved on from their own free agent old-timers in Shane Doan in Jarome Iginla, so both seem unlikely. Carolina already added a greybeard in Justin Williams, but scoring depth couldn’t hurt there. Vancouver is already incredibly old, so why not double down at this point and help out your special teams? And there’s always the possibility that Jagr finally decides to take a paycut to chase after a final championship. It has been since 1992 for him.

Expected Contract

Jagr will continue to wait away in free agency limbo for some time. This may be his final contract, but it’s difficult to determine how important competitiveness of the team will be to him. I think he stays in the East, namely New Jersey, for one year at a measly $1.75 MM. It won’t delay the rebuild, which is necessary in Newark, but it will keep the team just above water in the division. I’m not certain Shero wants to gamble on a total tank, as we saw how well that worked for Colorado in the recent draft. They ultimately need proven forwards to round out the roster, and the price is right to buy low.

Leafs’ Cap Woes Not Yet Fatal

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Much has been made by the Toronto media in recent  months regarding the team’s future cap situation. Currently, they sit at $3.929 MM over the cap ceiling. That issue is relatively unimportant considering the players that will end up on long-term injured reserve, but the sudden pressure of being “in the red” has started to make analysts nervous about the team’s future. The man source of concern surrounds the three star youngsters, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, who will all need contracts before 2019-20. The 21 year-old Nylander’s RFA year is 2018-19 so his contract will be the first domino to fall.

Recently, Howard Berger penned an article proposing the necessity of moving on from one of Marner or Nylander due to impending budget restraints, and he ultimately advocated for the movement of the latter. The Toronto Star’s Damien Cox takes a more comprehensive look at the situation, but ultimately comes down with a fatalistic view of the situation – that it can only be rectified by abandoning one of these players in their primes. The author postulates that an approximate “37 percent of Toronto’s payroll” could be sacrificed to just that trio, estimating that the cap will rise only moderately (likely true).

There’s a very solid possibility that Toronto is overvaluing their own players’ worth a tad. There is also the incredible probability that one of the three may have a setback year, at least points-wise, which will bring a contract back down into reasonable territory. Matthews may not even make $10 MM on his first deal, and Marner and Nylander look to be only slightly more valuable collectively contract wise than say, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat. Will the contracts be expensive? Absolutely. But will the three earn $30 MM combined? Not likely.

Ultimately, Toronto has difficult decisions ahead. Cox was correct in his assessment that Toronto is “going for it” now – the Patrick Marleau and depth player signings confirm that the team wants to compete in the short-term. But the long-term prospects probably don’t include sacrificing any of these players. With a combined cap devotion of slightly above 30%, the situation is entirely manageable.  The go-to example for star-power, of course, should be the Pittsburgh Penguins who have successfully shuffled accessory pieces out as they begin to become overpaid. Their big three – Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang account for $25.45 MM of the team’s salary, a solid 34.8% of the allowable cap last season. Toronto fans shouldn’t start hitting the panic button, and internally the course ahead financially is likely already plotted. The team will need to find players on cheap contracts and hunt for bargains, while moving out older expensive pieces as the core group matures. Adding Marleau for a third season also wasn’t particularly helpful as 2019-20 will be the tightest fit. That said, Marner and Nylander shouldn’t start packing their bags just yet.

RFAs Headed For Payday In Arbitration

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As the list of the players who have filed for arbitration was released earlier today by the NHLPA, a few names stick out as those due a meaningful raise. Arbitration is a tricky process to reliably predict, but it’s a safe bet these names will see their cap hit rise substantially.

 

Brian Dumoulin – D – Pittsburgh Penguins

There was a time when the young Dumoulin was a well-kept secret in the league, overshadowed by the far flashier play of Kris Letang. Dumoulin’s accolades this last playoff year certainly didn’t go unnoticed, and as the lone defensive defenseman in their core group, he probably holds the greatest job security on the team’s blueline. He doesn’t put up points – only one goal in the last two seasons, but he blocks shots and drives possession while eating a ton of minutes against top competition. As analytics are utilized more and more, his case only gets stronger. A contract well over $4 MM is certainly looking possible.

Colton Parayko – D – St. Louis Blues

This is the name seen most commonly associated with offer-sheets this summer, and with good reason. Parayko plays with the mentality of an old-time defenseman, but he can skate quite well for a large (6’6) man. He’s only had two seasons in the NHL, but he’s impressed since he first took the ice. Again, he isn’t a massive offensive force (he scored 3 goals last season), but he’s already averaging over 21 minutes a night with near equal starts in both the offensive and defensive zone. He’ll be hurt by the quantifiable stats factor, but he’s a big body with a rare right-handed shot to boot. This contract could look relatively cheap compared to his next, if he continues along this course. He should cost around $5.5 MM.

Ondrej Palat – F – Tampa Bay Lightning

Others will look to the undersized center Tyler Johnson as most likely to get a payday. But don’t over look Palat’s consistency – it may give him an edge with arbiters. Johnson does have his 72 point campaign to lean on, but that was now two full seasons ago. The fact that both players couldn’t break 20 goals in the last two seasons will bring their prices back down to Earth. Palat has grown into his role on the team and back-checks with a ferocity not often seen in younger stars. Johnson is no slouch either – they’ve both accumulated Selke votes over the years. These are two pivotal pieces of the Lightning, and their upcoming contracts were a big reason Jonathan Drouin was traded away to Montreal. GM Steve Yzerman will happily lock both up, but he will be hoping for figures under the $6 MM mark.

Viktor Arvidsson – F – Nashville Predators

This would have been an unlikely name on such a list even last December, when you consider how truly meteoric Arvidsson’s rise was. His value in arbitration will be deeply interesting – the shifty winger has played himself into the core of the team within a season. He really only has 2016-17 and the long playoff run to hang his hat on, as he scored only 16 points through 56 games in 2015-16. This year was a remarkable offensive explosion, with 30 goals and 31 assists. At only 5’9, Arvidsson has really shocked many onlookers by how easily he’s adapted to the physicality of the NHL game. His talent has never been in question, and with his production now well-established, it’s safe to believe he’s going to get a cushy award. How bad the damage will be is going to affect Nashville’s cap going forward – I suspect over $5 MM, but there are few comparables.

Mikael Granlund – F – Minnesota Wild

Granlund is perhaps slightly more enticing league wide than fellow Wild RFA Nino Niederreiter. He’s a marginally more cerebral player, and he plays the valuable center position. Neiderreiter is the more natural goal-scorer and larger frame, but Granlund has better PPG and has broken 30 assists thrice. Both players will get paid, as they both broke 25 goals last season and will be important pieces in the State of Hockey for some time. I think the more interesting thing to watch here is whether the Wild play it safe with Granlund and take a one year deal, or attempt to lock him up for longer. This was the first season he really scored with any consistency, but the Wild have shown their faith in the player by continually giving him over 17 minutes of icetime even when he struggled to produce. A one-year would easily command over $5 MM, whereas a longer deal could bring cost down.

 

Leafs Re-Sign Zach Hyman

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have signed forward Zach Hyman to a four-year contract extension, thereby avoiding arbitration. The cap value is $2.25 AAV, but breaks down in real dollars as $2 MM annually for the next two seasons, and $2.5 MM annually for the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons. Hyman applied for arbitration today, but the parties were able to come to a deal without needed to fully exercise that option.

Hyman is an intriguing piece of Toronto’s impressive young roster. This deal could be a real bargain for Toronto as they try to squeeze other youngsters’ new contracts under the cap in coming off-seasons. Hyman looks to be a consistent 40 point player and for the other assets he brings, this is more than fair value. The 25-year-old is a bit of a late bloomer, just playing his first full NHL season this year, racking up 10 goals and 18 assists through 82 games. Under Mike Babcock, the nuts-and-bolts forward has really developed his overall game. He’s a sparkplug on the ice and is agile on his feet. He also plays bigger than his 6’0 frame, getting in on the forecheck and generally being an annoyance to opposing defensemen.

Hyman has also showed chemistry with standout rookie and probable franchise player Auston Matthews, playing a good portion of the season on his left wing. Hyman tends to do the dirty work in front of the net and in the corners while Matthews finds soft spots in coverage. He is versatile, however, and can slot up and down the lineup as needed. He can play both wings with relative proficiency, as well as center in a pinch. As a third wheel for any of the high-flying offensive threats the team has, he’s a wonderfully useful player. Toronto is likely most happy about the ability to buy out some of his unrestricted years while Hyman is likely grateful for the security. There’s not much to complain about for fans of the team, as Toronto was able to avoid the single or two year deal that would have resulted from the arbitration process.

Of note, this deal currently puts the Toronto Maple Leafs at $3.93 MM over the cap ceiling. Teams are allowed to exceed the cap ceiling in the off-season by 10 percent in the off-season, but must be compliant by the start of the year. The team still also is expected to re-sign RFA Connor Brown, but they will have both Joffrey Lupul and Nathan Horton headed to LTIR once the season begins.

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