The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part III
Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third and second third of the league; here are the contracts that each of the final ten teams would most like to trade, from Philadelphia to Winnipeg:
Philadelphia Flyers: Andrew MacDonald – two years, $10MM remaining
Based purely on salary versus what he brings to the table, Jori Lehtera‘s $4.7MM contract is the worst on the Flyers. However, Philadelphia is far from cap trouble this season, currently among the five lightest payrolls in the league, and Lehtera’s deal expires after this season. However, next year the Flyers will need to re-sign or replace Wayne Simmonds, hand new deals to Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, and likely find a new starting goalie. The cap crunch will be much more real and the over-inflated $5MM contract of Andrew MacDonald will hurt. MacDonald’s six-year, $30MM contract was immediately panned by the public and it wasn’t long after that he was buried in the minors for cap relief and to keep him out of the lineup. MacDonald simply is not the player he was with the New York Islanders earlier in his career when he could eat major minutes, was stellar in man-to-man defense, and could block shots with the best. What he is being paid now is far beyond what he is actually worth. Some would say that Radko Gudas is worse, but that is an argument that suffers from recency bias. Combining the past two seasons, Gudas actually has the same amount of points as MacDonald in fewer games and less ice time, a better plus/minus rating, far more shots, and of course infinitely more hits. At $3.35MM for the next two years, Gudas is a far better deal.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Carl Hagelin – one year, $4MM remaining
The real answer is that GM Jim Rutherford would not like to trade any more players. He already ditched two of his worst contracts by sending Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres and he isn’t eager to make another salary dump. However, the reality is that Rutherford is going to find it hard to manipulate his roster this season with just over $1MM in cap space. As such, it is likely that another Penguin could be on the move. An outside observer could easily point to the Jack Johnson contract as one that stands little chance of maintaining its value over the term and the same argument could be made for Patric Hornqvist as well. However, Rutherford just signed those deals and wouldn’t move them even if he could. That leaves a short list of players who could be moved and the only one that sticks out as being overpriced is Carl Hagelin. Hagelin has played an important part of the Penguins’ reign over the past few years, but at $4MM he has not cracked 40 points in any of the three seasons and can go cold for weeks at a time. Rutherford won’t make a move unless it can benefit the team, but if he can get another scoring winger in exchange for a package that dumps Hagelin’s salary, he’ll do it.
San Jose Sharks: None
Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, and Paul Martin are all gone. Two top forwards, the two best defensemen, and the starting goalie are all locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. The Sharks have almost $4.5MM in cap space this season, giving them room to add. Congratulations to GM Doug Wilson and his staff. This roster is the epitome of cap compliance mixed with depth and talent. There is not one contract that the team would be interested in dumping.
St. Louis Blues: Alexander Steen – three years, $17.25MM remaining
The Blues currently have all but $285K of their cap space committed to 24 players. The team may send Chris Thorburn or Jordan Nolan down to the AHL, but will only gain marginal space. Something else has to give. If they could target any player to move to alleviate some pressure, it would be Alexander Steen. With just seven forwards and three defensemen (as of now) signed beyond next season and the majority of players in line for raises or free agent replacements, these cap woes aren’t going away anytime soon and an expensive long-term deal needs to be shipped out. Understandably, St. Louis is all in this season and wouldn’t be eager to ship out an important top-six piece. However, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Jaden Schwartz are the new young core up front now and paying 34-year-old Steen $5.75MM for three more years for declining production just doesn’t make sense. The Blues could potentially land some nice pieces from another contender for Steen as well. Admittedly, the Tyler Bozak contract looks even worse than Steen’s, but the Blues won’t be looking to trade a player they just signed.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Ryan Callahan – two years, $11.6MM remaining
The long-term implications of several other deals aside, the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is wide open and their focus is on the here and now. The one player really impeding their ability to add freely to the roster is Ryan Callahan. While GM Steve Yzerman has excelled at extending most of his core below market value, the six-year, $34.8MM contract for Callahan was a mistake. Injuries limited Callahan to just 18 games in 2016-17, but last year he played in 67 games yet he only managed to score 18 points. Callahan’s days as an impact player are over, but he is still being paid like one at $5.8MM. While Tampa Bay can manage this season with close to $3MM in cap space, they would have more to work with without him. However, Callahan’s contract will really present a major road block next summer, when the Bolts need to re-sign Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and more. There is no doubt that Yzerman will look to unload Callahan’s contract before it comes to that point.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Nikita Zaitsev – six years, $27MM remaining
The Maple Leafs severely jumped the gun when they rewarded Nikita Zaitsev with a seven-year deal after his rookie season in 2016-17. Although Zaitsev was an import, making his NHL debut at 25 years old, his situation epitomizes why bridge deals exist. Toronto sought to lock him up long term and gave him nearly a maximum term at $4.5MM, just $500K less per year than top defender Morgan Rielly. In his encore performance last season, he showed that he is not worthy of the salary nor length of that contract, dropping from 36 points to 13 points for the year, turning the puck over at an alarming rate, and eventually becoming a healthy scratch. This team simply can’t afford the type of long-term mistake that they made with Zaitsev. While it’s nice that they have Reilly, John Tavares, and Nazem Kadri signed long-term, it’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander they need to worry about. The Maple Leafs will have to balance multiple expensive, long-term deals moving forward and would love for Zaitsev’s to not be one of them.
Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson – four years, $24MM remaining
It seems unlikely that the recently-signed deals for Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel will work out well, but they at least deserve some time. Loui Eriksson has had his time and has done nothing with it. While the Canucks aren’t under any cap pressure, they can’t enjoy seeing Eriksson’s $6MM cap hit – the highest on the team – on the books for four more years, especially when the bulk of his front-loaded salary has already been paid out. Eriksson was brought in with an expectation that he would be the ultimate fit with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Instead, he has scored just 47 points combined over two seasons, less than his final season total with the Boston Bruins. The Sedins are now gone, the team is trying to get both younger and more physical and defensive-minded, and Eriksson is simply an expensive poor fit. There’s not much more to say about a player who desperately needs a change of scenery and a team that wants him gone.
Vegas Golden Knights: None
The Golden Knights are riding high after an outrageously successful first season in the NHL. It is highly unlikely that they see anything wrong with their current contracts, almost all of which were either hand-picked or signed by GM George McPhee. Give it some time and that could change. Reilly Smith is notorious for a significant drop in production in his second year with a team, but is signed for four more years at $5MM. Paul Stastny for three years at $6.5MM per seems like a solid deal, but he has always produced better surrounded by equal talent. Does Vegas have enough to justify his signing? A $2.775MM cap hit for Ryan Reaves doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Finally, there’s the three-year, $21MM extension for heroic goalie but also 33-year-old well-worn vet Marc-Andre Fleury, which could end poorly. And this isn’t even counting what could be a massive reactionary contract for one-year breakout star William Karlsson. The Knights don’t see any problems right now after finding immediate success, but if they slide significantly in year two, things could get ugly.
Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie – seven years, $40.25MM remaining
No, it’s not Tom Wilson. The call of the question is which contract each team wants to trade, not which is objectively the worst. Wilson’s contract does seem excessive, but he is just 24 and could grow into that salary (doubtful but possible). Plus, the organization loves what he brings to the team. T.J. Oshie on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction. Oshie has done what he was brought in to do: help the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. It took a max eight-year term to keep Oshie off the market last summer and now Washington has their Cup but also has a 31-year-old with diminishing returns signed for seven more years. Oshie could absolutely still help the Capitals over the next few years, but it’s doubtful that he will be back in 60-point range in that time. He also will be nothing more than a cap space vacuum when he’s in his late thirties making $5.75MM. Oshie is a great player and one of the more likeable guys in the league, but this contract has little upside left. The Capitals would at the very least consider trading Oshie now, which can’t be said for most of their other core players.
Winnipeg Jets: Jacob Trouba – one year, $5.5MM remaining
The list ends with a tricky one. Is $5.5MM a fair value for Trouba? An arbitrator thinks so and the Jets would likely agree. However, Trouba’s contract has been a nightmare for the team. The young defenseman clearly does not want to be in Winnipeg and has set himself up for yet another arbitration clash next summer, after which he will bolt in free agency. The Jets have no long-term security with Trouba and that meddles with their future planning. With Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers, and several others also in need of new contracts next summer, the Jets don’t need another Trouba arbitration award cutting into their cap space just so that he can walk after the season. The team will definitely look to get maximum value in a trade for Trouba over the next season.
Minor Transactions: 07/31/18
The last few arbitration cases will be wrapped up over the next few days, and the waiting game will truly begin until the start of the 2018-19 season. Though there is plenty going on with the World Junior Summer Showcase and training camps opening in a few weeks, most eyes are still focused on the last few names on the free agent market. We’ll keep track of any minor signings right here.
- Cole Cassels has signed in the German DEL for next season after failing to receive a qualifying offer from the Vancouver Canucks. Originally selected in the third round in 2013, Cassels never did make it to the NHL and recorded just 26 points for the Utica Comets last season. It doesn’t look like there is much of an NHL future for the 23-year old center, unable to make the same offensive impact as his father, Andrew Cassels, a long-time NHL player with over 1,000 games under his belt.
- The New Jersey Devils decided not to give a qualifying offer to 24-year old Mario Lucia, who has now signed on to play in Norway for this year. Lucia, selected in the second round by the Minnesota Wild seven years ago, had a good career at Notre Dame but struggled at the AHL level. Lucia came to the Devils organization earlier this year in a minor league trade, and had just seven points for the team in 23 games.
- The disappointing NHL career of Zach Nastasiuk (or lack there of) is likely over before it began. Nastasiuk, 23, was a second-round draft pick of the Detroit Red Wings back in 2013. A first-rounder in the OHL as well, Nastasiuk had boasted strong production in juniors with the Owen Sound Attack prior to being selected and only improved after his draft year. Yet, when he joined the pro ranks in 2015, the powerful forward’s offense disappeared. Nastasiuk has spent the entirety of his entry-level contract in the minors, playing 102 games in the ECHL compared to 64 in the AHL and has failed to show off any elite ability at either level, instead playing a checking role most of the time. It is no surprise then that the Red Wings did not qualify him this off-season and that has been unable to find another NHL contract. Instead, Nastasiuk has signed with the AHL’s Charlotte Checkers, the team announced. It is a two-way deal as well, meaning Nastiuk could very well spend the bulk of his season with the ECHL’s Florida Everblades instead.
Tampa Bay May Still Be Looking For More Defense
With the current high demands from Ottawa in a possible Erik Karlsson trade making it less and less likely that anything will happen, the Tampa Bay Lightning must choose whether they should be content with their defense or need to find another fit.
On paper, the team seems more solid than most as the team boasts Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh to go with promising Mikhail Sergachev and a host of solid blueline depth, including Anton Stralman, Dan Girardi, Braydon Coburn, Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek. Yet when looking a step further, their elite defensemen are all left-handed. Hedman, McDonaugh and Sergachev are all left-handed, leaving Stralman, Dotchin and Girardi on the right, which isn’t nearly as solid. While Sergachev has proven he can play on the right side, that isn’t ideal for the Lightning, which was another reason why the team was intent on adding the right-handed Karlsson.
In a mailbag segment, The Athletic’s Joe Smith (subscription required) suggests the team needs to continue looking for a right-handed defenseman to even out both sides, suggesting the team should monitor the Jacob Trouba situation in Winnipeg since the stud defenseman refuses to sign a long-term deal with the Jets. Trouba, who received a one-year, $5.5MM deal from an arbitrator last week will have to go through the same process next year as he will be a restricted free agent again. If the two sides can’t reach long-term agreement then, he will be an unrestricted free agent in 2020-21 and might force his way out of Winnipeg.
Another option, Smith writes, would be prying Justin Faulk away from the Carolina Hurricanes. The right-shot defenseman has two years remaining on his contract at $4.83MM AAV, but with the acquisition of Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan and the plethora of young defensive talent on the roster, including Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean, the team is expected to move Faulk for more help in other areas.
One final option and perhaps the cheapest would be to trade for Vancouver Canucks’ Chris Tanev. The 28-year-old stay-at-home defender has been solid for the Canucks, but is being overpaid at $4.45MM for the next two seasons. The right-handed defenseman would be a reliable presence.
Regardless, the team needs to shake up their defense. Coburn and Girardi, who have played bigger roles in the past, are better off as third-pairing defenders, while Sergachev played the best hockey of his career during the playoffs, suggesting he’s likely going to move into the top-four. Dotchin and Koekkoek are also both likely going to fight for time in the top-six, so something needs to change.
Pacific Notes: Golden Knights Prospects, Juolevi, Gaudette
The Vegas Golden Knights are coming off an impressive inaugural season, capped off by a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals. However, with the team adjusting its original five-year plan to a much shorter one, which was proven when they traded their 2018 first-round pick to Detroit to acquire Tomas Tatar, one would think that Vegas lacks quality young prospects. However, that’s far from the case.
SinBin’s Ken Boehlke breaks down the team’s top 21 skaters and top four goaltending prospects. The scribe’s criteria for qualifying includes prospects under 23 years of age, who have played fewer than 10 NHL games. However, while many people might be expecting center Cody Glass to hold the top spot, that isn’t the case. Boehlke hands that award to 2017 first-round defenseman Erik Brannstrom instead. The 5-foot-10, 173-pound blueliner is an outstanding skater who excels at stretch passes, something that the Golden Knights are very high on. He posted solid numbers in the SHL and is ready to come over to North America. Brannstrom has a chance to win a spot on the team, but due to Vegas’ depth on defense, it’s more likely that Brannstrom will start his season off in the AHL.
- With Vancouer’s Quinn Hughes planning to return to the University of Michigan, The Province’s Jason Botchford writes that 2016 first-round pick Olli Juolevi could get a chance to make the team now. With other bigger-named rookies like Elias Pettersson and Hughes around, Juolevi has been an almost forgotten man. However, Juolevi must prove that he belongs as the former fifth-overall pick has struggled with both the OHL London Knights as well as his TPS Turku team in the top league in Finland last season. However, Sami Salo, one of his coaches in Finland said that by the time the playoffs rolled around, Juolevi was the team’s top defenseman, suggesting he might be ready to come to the NHL and with a team full of average defenseman, he might just make it.
- NHL.com’s Amalie Benjamin profiles the Vancouver Canucks’ Adam Gaudette, who has made it clear that he wants to make the Canucks roster out of training camp this year. The 21-year-old out of Northeastern University played five games for Vancouver after signing with the team, but failed to register a point. He will have his work cut out for him as the team signed three veterans to the team, which will likely force several youngsters to play in the AHL next season. However, Gaudette feels he’s ready. “I’ve always been kind of a guy who’s been looked down on, that won’t really get anywhere, but I embraced that, took that in and turned it around and used it as motivation,” Gaudette said. “I think that, no matter what, people are going to doubt [me] at every level. I’ve already heard it about the NHL and nothing would make me more satisfied than to just go in and prove them wrong.”
Canucks Notes: Hughes, Utica Comets, Schaller, Defense
Earlier today, the University of Michigan announced that defenseman Quinn Hughes, the Vancouver Canucks 2018 first-round pick, will return to the team, crushing hopeful fans of having the smooth-skating blueliner from starting the season with the Canucks.
Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal reports that he interviewed Hughes’ agent and father, Jim Hughes about the decision the Hughes family had to make last night about him returning to college for another season.
“Quinn talked to Jim and Travis last night, everyone was on the same page. Because we were travelling so much in last month, finally we got together and made the call,” said Jim Hughes. “Quinn went back and forth, he struggled with the call to go to the NHL, every kid wants to get there fast but we did not rush. 1 more year in college will not hurt him, he wants to get stronger and pack on some pounds.”
TSN’s Ray Ferraro suggests the team take a similar approach to Quinn Hughes to the direction that Boston took when they drafted Charlie McAvoy in the first round back in 2016. The Bruins allowed him to return to Boston University, then play at the World Juniors and then after his college season signed him and brought him in to play in six playoff games for them.
- Ben Birnell of the Observer-Dispatch wonders how the resignation of Trevor Linden, the Canucks president of hockey operations, will affect the team’s long-term standing with their AHL affiliate, the Utica Comets. Linden has been a supporter of Vancouver’s affiliation with the Comets over the years despite the distance between the two cities and with the six-year affiliation agreement between the two teams up in less than a year, there are questions whether Linden’s departure could end their long-time affiliation. Utica has been home to many of the Canucks top prospects and will likely be a focal point for the team’s depth at the forward position as several key prospects are likely going to be headed for Utica this season.
- JD Burke of The Athletic (subscription required) takes a look at what forward Tim Schaller will bring to the Canucks, especially pointing to the veteran’s ability to play high-quality defensive hockey. Schaller, who was one of three bottom-six forwards to sign on July 1 to multiple-year contracts along with Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel, was the one with the most reasonable deal. He signed a two-year, $3.8MM deal and might be worth that money, according to the scribe, who breaks down the 27-year-old’s positive qualities, which also include solid penalty killing skills.
- TSN’s Jason Brough reports that while the loss of Hughes is likely going to keep the team’s defense the same, he wouldn’t be surprised if Vancouver makes a move to improve a below average defense that at the momemt is made up of Alexander Edler, Chris Tanev, Erik Gudbranson, Michael Del Zotto, Ben Hutton and Troy Stecher.
Quinn Hughes To Return For Sophomore Year At Michigan
There has been plenty of speculation as to where Vancouver Canucks first-rounder Quinn Hughes will play next season. The defenseman has put an end to that as he has committed to Michigan for next season, the school announced.
Hughes was the seventh-overall pick last month following a stellar freshman year that saw him collect 29 points in 37 games. He also played a regular role at the World Juniors in December as well as the World Championships in May which had some thinking that he may be ready to make the jump to the pros.
With Vancouver’s depth on the back end, it’s likely that they would have had to trade someone to create a spot for Hughes at the NHL level right away, especially if 2016 first-rounder Olli Juolevi also makes the jump next season. With this decision, they can now keep their defense corps fully intact.
GM Jim Benning released the following statement about the decision through the Canucks’ Twitter account:
“We are in full support of Quinn’s decision to continue his university career as he further develops as a hockey player and a student. He now has an opportunity to be a leader at the University of Michigan and represent Team USA at the 2019 World Junior Championship in Vancouver. These are once-in-a-lifetime experiences that will only benefit Quinn’s future career.”
While Hughes won’t be with the Canucks to start the season, there is always the potential for him to sign at the conclusion of his college campaign and then play for Vancouver down the stretch. This is something that the team has done in recent years with forwards Brock Boeser and Adam Gaudette so it wouldn’t be too surprising if that’s the approach they have in mind here as well.
The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part II
Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third of the league; here are the contracts that each team would most like to trade, from Detroit to Ottawa:
Detroit Red Wings: Frans Nielsen – four years, $21MM remaining
As speculated by some readers in the comments section, it was no mistake that Part I ended with Dallas. Detroit deserved both some extra consideration and to lead off an article about poor contracts. There is an argument to be made that almost every single player age 28 and over on the Red Wings roster is signed to a bad contract for one reason or another. Detroit is a team that ranks towards the bottom of the standings and towards the top of the salary cap and that is not just bad luck. However, some are much worse than others and they are so bad that it is tough to choose between them. Take this scenario: Player A scored 35 points in 75 games last season. It was 14 points more than the season prior, including six more goals, and Player A also led the team in hits. He is 31 years old and signed for five more years at $4.25MM per. Player B scored 33 points in 79 games last season. It was eight points less than the season prior, and Player B also had the worst face-off percentage among the team’s centers. He is 34 years old and signed for four more years at $5.25MM per. Still undecided about which contract the team would rather trade? Player A is a Michigan native and career Red Wing and Player B is entering only his third year after signing a lucrative free agent contract. Player A of course is perennial whipping boy Justin Abdelkader. Yes, the Abdelkader contract is terrible. At no point in his career has he been worth his current contract value. Yet, he improved last season, is younger and brings a defensive element to his game, and is also loyal to the current administration – the call of the question after all is which contract the team would most like to trade. That would instead be Player B, Frans Nielsen, who at 34 is predictably declining and last year made more than Abdelkader for less production and there is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue. The team rewarded Adbelkader for years of service, whereas they took a gamble on Nielsen that hasn’t paid off. One of those moves is far more regrettable. Nielsen is the guy, but he only narrowly edged out Abdelkader and defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who also has relative age and Detroit roots to his advantage.
Edmonton Oilers: Milan Lucic – five years, $30MM remaining
The Oilers can refute trade rumors surrounding Milan Lucic all they want. The truth of the matter is that GM Peter Chiarelli signed Lucic hoping that he could both produce with and protect Connor McDavid in Edmonton as he did for David Krejci in Boston. The only problem is that the 30-year-old power forward can no longer keep up with a player of McDavid’s caliber. Lucic managed to score 34 points last season, tied for fourth on the team, but that is nowhere near what is expected of a $6MM player, especially when he scored 50 in year one with the Oilers and topped that mark many times with the Bruins. Edmonton still may be holding out hope that Lucic can turn it around and be just as much of a scoring threat as he is a physical threat, but make no mistake that the team would be quick to get rid of his contract if the right deal came along. In contrast, the team would be far more hesitant to move a hefty contract like defenseman Andrej Sekera who has been good and injury-prone, rather than healthy and underwhelming.
Florida Panthers: Roberto Luongo – four years, $18.13MM remaining
Florida is a tough one. Dale Tallon has done a good job of locking up his core long-term and, despite being right up against the cap, there are few egregious contracts on the roster right now. Give it a few years and maybe Michael Matheson will hold this title, but for now it goes to Roberto Luongo by default. Of course, Luongo is beloved in Florida and the team doesn’t even have to carry the whole of his cap hit, with the Vancouver Canucks retaining $800K each year. However, the reality is that Luongo will turn 40 this season and it will be only the first of four years left on his deal. The Panthers have almost $8MM committed to two goalies for the next few years and the other, James Reimer, is younger and outplayed Luongo in 2016-17 and in more games to boot. While they both fought injuries this past season, it was Luongo back on top performance-wise, but the impressive numbers he did post came in just 35 appearances versus Reimer’s 44. Florida paying over $4.5MM per year to a backup goalie in his forties just doesn’t make sense and the team would be better off moving forward with just Reimer and Michael Hutchinson if they could find a way to trade Luongo. Another reason this contract is bad: both the Panthers and Canucks will be hit with cap recapture penalties if Luongo retires prior to 2022.
Los Angeles Kings: Dustin Brown – four years, $23.5MM remaining
For the first time in years, Kings fans are feeling good about Dustin Brown. That is why now is the perfect time to trade him. Brown had been the bane of L.A.’s existence for four years, registering no more than 36 points each year while eating up $5.875MM in cap space, when he finally broke out of his funk in 2017-18 with a massive 61-point season and one of the league’s best plus/minus ratings. The question now is whether the past four years were an aberration with this season setting a new baseline or will Brown regress back to his bottom-six production. With a cap-strapped roster full of expensive contracts for older players, L.A. can’t take the risk of keeping Brown around if the right opportunity presents itself. They would be forced to trade the career King if a taker came forward rather than hold out hope that he doesn’t revert back to his old ways of being drastically overpaid.
Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise – seven years, $52.77MM remaining
When the Wild signed 28-year-old’s Zach Parise and Ryan Suter to matching 13-year contracts worth almost $100MM apiece, they knew that those deals would have dark days at some point in the future. However, they never could have imagined that Parise’s decline would come so soon. Parise remains one of the most popular players on the team, but injuries have kept him off the ice and affected his play when on the ice over the ice and his stock is falling quickly. Parise has never been able to reach the peaks he enjoyed in New Jersey, but he still produced at a high level over his first four seasons with the team. The past two years have been a different story and Parise appears to be trending in the wrong direction. Now 33, Parise isn’t totally beyond help and could turn it around. If back at 100%, Parise has enough natural ability and enough talent around him to still be a $7.5MM player. However, it would be nearly impossible for Minnesota to ever move the behemoth that is his contract so, if somehow they received an offer, they would take it without a second thought. Fan favorite or not, there is too much risk associated with Parise moving forward.
Montreal Canadiens: Shea Weber – seven years, $55MM remaining
I know what you’re thinking and yes, the Carey Price contract doesn’t look great right now. However, an extension of any length and value for any player coming off an injury-riddled season would bring a skewed perception. Price has been one of the best goalies in the league for years and one bad season doesn’t change that. Will he lose that title in the next eight years? For sure, but it would be a shock to see the Canadiens move their poster boy any time soon. Their #1 defenseman is another question though. When Montreal acquired Shea Weber for P.K. Subban, they never could have anticipated that his body would break down so soon after. Injuries cost Weber all but 26 games last season and he will miss the beginning of 2018-19 as well. Weber doesn’t seem like the type of player who will retire early, but there is no guarantee that these injuries won’t slow him down significantly for the remainder of his contract. In fact, the only guarantee is that he will slow down over the next seven years. At $7.86MM, the Canadiens need Weber to be his dynamic two-way self. The team already has one overpaid stay-at-home defenseman in Karl Alzner and can’t afford another. If they could move Weber, they would.
Nashville Predators: None
GM David Poile flat out doesn’t sign bad contracts. Criticize the deals for Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris if you like, but the bargain contracts throughout the rest of the lineup have allowed Poile to overpay for reliable centers and that is a team-building model that anyone can get behind.
New Jersey Devils: Corey Schneider – four years, $24MM remaining
The easy answer is that the Devils don’t feel any pressure to trade anyone on the roster. They currently have the lowest payroll in the league with nearly every player signed to a fair deal. Those who are overpriced – Travis Zajac and Andy Greene – play important leadership role and the only player signed to a substantially long-term deal is electric young blue liner Damon Severson. The one and only player that sticks out as a potential long-term cap problem is starting goaltender Corey Schneider. This may surprises some; after all Schneider trails only Tuukka Rask among active save percentage leaders. Schneider had been elite since arriving in New Jersey, but something started to change in 2016-17. His SV% fell to .908 and his GAA inflated to 2.82 and then things only got worse last season with a SV% of .907 and a GAA of 2.93. He was also limited to just 40 appearances this year and was outplayed by journeyman Keith Kinkaid. The Devils can’t count on Kinkaid to repeat his 2017-18 performance moving forward and if Schneider’s back-to-back bad years are more than a fluke, they can’t depend on him for four more years either. He’s not going to be a $6MM backup either. New Jersey will give Schneider the time he needs to return to form, but they may not hesitate if the right trade comes their way as well.
New York Islanders: Andrew Ladd – five years, $27.5MM remaining
The Islanders without John Tavares are a totally different animal. A six-year, $30MM extension for Josh Bailey now looks bad. A $5.75MM cap hit this season for free agents Leo Komarov and Valtteri Filppula signed to make up for Tavares’ lost production looks bad. The likes of Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, and Matt Martin now look worse on a team that needs more offense and less grit. However, the one contract that looked miserable well before Tavares bolted to Toronto is Andrew Ladd and it is only going to get much worse. The veteran forward was intended to find chemistry with Tavares when he was signed to a seven-year, $38.5MM contract two years ago. Instead, Ladd has just 60 points over the past two seasons combined and has by all accounts been relegated to a bottom-six role. The 32-year-old will now be asked to take a bigger role in Tavares’ stead and that is a scary proposition. The Islanders aren’t in any cap trouble, but the team should be thinking rebuild and would likely take any offer at all to rid themselves of Ladd.
New York Rangers: Brendan Smith – three years, $13.05MM remaining
Has any free agent contract in recent memory soured as quickly as Brendan Smith’s? Smith signed a four-year deal with the Rangers last June and was expected to play a top-four role for the team for years to come. By February, he had been placed on waivers and buried in the AHL. Smith played in only 44 games with New York and saw less and less ice time as the season wore on and he continued to turn the puck over at an alarming rate and cost his team goals. Now what? One would assume that Smith will be given a second chance this season, but the relationship between he and the team may be beyond repair. There is no doubt that the Rangers would take a re-do on that deal and would move him if possible. Marc Staal is another player that New York wouldn’t mind moving, but as a player who can eat minutes and provide solid play most of the time, his $5.7MM contract seems like nothing next to Smith’s $4.35MM deal.
Ottawa Senators: Bobby Ryan – four years, $29MM remaining
No contract in the league has become as notorious for being labeled a “bad deal” that the team is desperate to trade like Bobby Ryan’s. The Senators are so determined to move on from Ryan that they are trying to force Erik Karlsson trade suitors to take the overpaid forward as well. At one point in time, $7.25MM per year for Ryan seemed like a fair deal. At 23 years old he was a 71-point player with the Anaheim Ducks and even after moving to Ottawa, Ryan started his tenure with three straight seasons in the 50-point range. However, the last two years have been very different. Ryan has only suited up for 62 games in each campaign and has looked like a different player on offense. At his best, he looks disinterested and lucky to be in the right place at the right time and at his worst he costs his team goals. Ryan has managed to register only 58 points combined over the past two years; he had 56 alone in 2015-16. Ryan may just need a change of scenery to jump start what used to be dynamic goal-scoring game, but the Senators don’t care about that. All he is to them is a waste of cap space and of owner Eugene Melnyk‘s dwindling wealth. They want him gone at any cost.
Look out for Part III of this three-part series early next week…
Dean Lombardi Connected To Vancouver Canucks
Friday: Friedman cleared things up today when he reported that Lombardi, who has been working with the Philadelphia Flyers under GM Ron Hextall, recently signed a three-year deal and is committed to his current organization. Lombardi will not be the next team president for Vancouver, a position that might not even be filled by anyone given Benning’s recent comments.
Thursday: The Vancouver Canucks made a big splash yesterday when they announced that they had parted ways with team president Trevor Linden, and immediately speculation has exploded about who could potentially replace the outgoing executive. Brian Burke was asked on Sportsnet radio if he’d be interested, given his past ties to the organization, but responded that isn’t a possibility. Instead, another experienced option has surfaced today as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet has heard Dean Lombardi‘s name as a “serious contender” for the vacancy. Lombardi was fired by the Los Angeles Kings just over a year ago, but has a long history of success in the NHL including two Stanley Cup championships.
It’s not clear if the Canucks would quickly move to hire a replacement for Linden, but Lombardi certainly has his supporters around the league. Jim Benning is still currently operating as the GM of Vancouver while taking on the responsibilities of team president, but there’s no guarantee he would stay on if a different executive was brought in above him. As we saw with the recent hiring of Lou Lamoriello with the New York Islanders, new management often wants to clean house when they inherit a franchise.
The Canucks have built quite the pool of prospects over the last few years, but made some head-scratching moves this summer when they handed out multi-year contracts to depth players like Antoine Roussel, Jay Beagle and Tim Schaller. While all three bring a certain style of play that Vancouver may have been lacking, it’s surprising that the first two were able to secure four-year contacts from anyone given their limited upside—not to mention the modified no-trade clauses they both received. There is plenty to be excited about in Vancouver though, as Brock Boeser is one of the league’s top young players and others like Elias Pettersson, Adam Gaudette, Olli Juolevi and Quinn Hughes will soon be making their marks.
Bringing in a new voice is always risky, but Vancouver could be simply trying to insulate Benning from some of the more high-level franchise decisions and allow him focus on the on-ice product and scouting the next generation of Canucks’ players. The organization needs to find some success at some point, after missing the playoffs in five of the last six seasons and not winning a playoff round since 2013.
Pacific Notes: Canucks, Campbell, Hathaway
The situation in Vancouver surrounding the sudden resignation of President Trevor Linden continues to be murky at best. Francesco Aquilini and the ownership continue to avoid prying questions, while GM Jim Benning and coach Travis Green continue to be on the hot seat instead. Many would like to know what led to the departure of a young executive with deep loyalties to the organization, but answers have been few and far in between. Mike Johnson of Sportsnet talked to Benning and Green, but found out little. Benning spoke highly of Linden, but said “I don’t know all the reasons why (he resigned) and it’s not my place to comment on it.” Johnson suggests, as many have, that Linden’s departure may not have been as independent as it appears and that he may have been forced out due to conflicts with the ownership. For his part, Benning says that he never noticed any discourse and says that nothing has changed about the team’s vision and direction. Green added that he thought the best of Linden, but that his departure won’t change the organizations game plan. However, that could change and so could the dynamic of the team’s front office. Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre reports that Benning has been told that the Canucks are not searching for a replacement for Linden, implying that Benning would absorb some of the responsibilities that he has been given already in Linden’s absence. However, that directly contradicts another report that former Los Angeles Kings GM Dean Lombardi has already been connected to the vacancy. It seems that there is still a lot to be revealed about both the past and future conditions of Vancouver’s leadership.
- The Athletic’s Lisa Dillman wonders if Los Angeles Kings backup goalie Jack Campbell will be the second coming of Martin Jones for the team. Campbell, who endured a bust label for years as a Dallas Stars first-round pick in 2011 who struggled to find success early on as a pro, finally looked like a legitimate NHL goaltender in five appearances with the Kings last season in his second year since being traded away by Dallas. Campbell started four games and made one relief appearance, posting a save percentage of .924 and a goal against average of 2.48 and also played well in the AHL. Dillman reports that this performance has L.A. expecting Campbell to be the primary backup to Jonathan Quick next season, despite the presence of veteran Peter Budaj and promising prospect Cal Petersen. The Kings hope that by committing to the young keeper that they could end up with another reliable asset like Jones. Jones also struggled to stick out in his early pro seasons, albeit as an undrafted free agent, before putting up stunning numbers as Quick’s backup for two seasons once he was given a real shot. The Kings have Campbell locked up for two more years – and Quick for five – so they would love to get a repeat performance of Jones, with Campbell providing elite play as the backup until the point that they can trade him away. This time they just hope that he won’t get flipped back into the division like the Boston Bruins did with Jones, who now frustrates the Kings on a regular basis as the starter for the San Jose Sharks.
- The Calgary Flames received the salary arbitration award for defenseman Brett Kulak on Wednesday and also agreed to terms on extensions with forward Mark Jankowski and goalie David Rittich in the past 48 hours, avoiding arbitration, yet they still aren’t done. The next scheduled arbitration hearing is none other than another Flame: forward Garnet Hathaway. Hathaway and his side are set to sit down with Calgary and an arbitrator on Monday if nothing can be agreed upon by then. With the Flames preoccupied working out three other contracts over the past two days, it would be no surprise if the two sides at least exchange briefs and filing numbers over the next day or two which could perhaps speed up negotiations. Hathaway played in only 59 games with Calgary last season and has less than 100 NHL games total to date, so it would be a surprise to see the fourth liner actually go through the arbitration process without a deal. However, most would have made a similar argument about Kulak, whose case was actually farther apart in terms of perceived value than many would have thought given his somewhat minor role. Garnet could be the same way, as their has been little talk of an agreement, and the Flames could be destined for yet another hearing.
Pittsburgh Penguins Re-Sign Tristan Jarry
The Pittsburgh Penguins have their final restricted free agent wrapped up. The team has announced a two-year contract extension with backup goalie Tristan Jarry that carries a cap hit of only $675K: a $650K salary in 2018-19 and a $700K salary in 2019-20. On top of a friendly salary, the deal is also of a two-way nature this season before transitioning to a one-way contract next year.
It is unlikely that Pittsburgh GM Jim Rutherford could have done any better with this contract. The Penguins are perhaps in worse shape going up against the salary cap ceiling next season than any other team in the league. Pittsburgh currently has all but $1MM of their available cap space committed to a projected 23-man roster than looks unlikely to change much. The team already had to make a salary cap dump earlier this off-season, trading capable winger Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres in order to also offload underacheiving defenseman Matt Hunwick. There have been some questioning how the team could re-sign one of the most well-regarded goalie prospects in the pros and not have to make another similar move. Yet somehow Rutherford was able to convince Jarry to sign a) for close to a minimum salary, b) for multiple years, and c) on a two-way deal in the upcoming year. For a 23-year-old former second round pick who has incredible AHL numbers and had a solid first NHL season in 2017-18 behind an injury-prone starter, that seemed impossible. If Jarry again appears in 26 or so games and posts a .908 save percentage and 2.77 GAA or better in either of the next two years, this contract will be an amazing value for the Penguins.
The Penguins may still not be off the hook, however. Jarry’s two-way contract and waiver exemption will make it easy for the Penguins to move him up and down through the organization to relieve starter Matt Murray and slated backup Casey DeSmith when necessary – and recent history has shown that Murray is likely to miss time at some point. Yet, call-up’s for Jarry, as well as players like Zach Aston-Reese, Jimmy Hayes, and Zach Trotman, will eat away at what little cap space the Penguins have. It may be possible for them to get through the season as currently structured, but if Rutherford wants some more flexibility to maneuver his roster, don’t be surprised if another cap-relieving trade is still completed at some point. Until then though, Rutherford deserves some credit for locking up all of his restricted free agents and putting together a well-rounded roster given his uncomfortable cap scenario.