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One Year Later: Matt Duchene Will Dictate The Senators’ Future

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A year ago today, the Ottawa Senators made a three-team deal with the Colorado Avalanche and the Nashville Predators. Since then, names like Erik Karlsson, Ryan McDonagh, Rick Nash, Evander Kane, and Tomas Tatar (twice) have all been traded. Yet, it’s that November 5th deal that is still the most memorable recent trade for many, due to both the immediate impact and the lasting results.

In that trade, Ottawa – at a contract impasse with center Kyle Turris – dealt he, first-round prospect forward Shane Bowers, goaltender Andrew Hammond, a first-round pick, and a third-round pick to Colorado. The Avs then flipped Turris to Nashville for defenseman Samuel Girard, forward Vladislav Kamenev, and a second-round pick. It was quite a haul for Colorado and they have yet to even use either of Ottawa’s picks, including a likely lottery pick in the first round next year. The Predators meanwhile signed Turris to a six-year extension and he has 53 points in 79 games since joining the team. The return for all of this for the Senators? Matt Duchene, who a year later is in limbo with an expiring contract and a team that is far from the contender he was promised.

As TSN’s Ian Mendes notes, Senators GM Pierre Dorion was coming off a 2016-17 season that saw his team make a run to the Eastern Conference final. When he acquired Duchene, he thought it could be the final piece of the puzzle to get them back and through that third round of the playoffs. Instead, Ottawa sunk to the second-worst record in the NHL. It’s too late to reverse that trade or the events of last season. The team could have simply traded Turris for picks and prospects at the deadline, as Mendes points out, and certainly could have found a deal for a top-six forward this off-season that was far less expensive. Their first-round pick in 2019 could be first overall, franchise center Jack Hughes, and there’s nothing they could do. Boston University standout Bowers could blossom into a top-line forward, but there’s no recourse for that. The only element of the trade left in the control of Dorion and the Senators is the future of Duchene and with it potentially the future of the team.

Ottawa is faced with two choices this season: pay Duchene or trade him. The 2009 third overall pick carries a $6MM cap hit on his current contract. If he were to hit the open market, he would certainly be due a raise. Duchene’s alleged reason for wanting out of Colorado last season was ironically that he didn’t want to play through a rebuild. If that is still his mindset, it would take a substantial sum from the Senators to keep him around. Owner Eugene Melnyk has been unwilling to pay his better player their fair value, leading to the Karlsson trade and likely more moves to come. Will he make an exception for Duchene? If not, the Senators need to move Duchene and sooner rather than later. The trade deadline will be the final opportunity to trade the star center, who will have a long list of suitors, but his value drops each day leading up to that point. Dorion will likely never get back a package commensurate with what he gave up for Duchene, but his best chance to get close is to trade him as soon as possible to the highest bidder.

Either option serves to benefit the Senators. Duchene may not be a superstar, but he is a talented, well-rounded player who is capable of leading Ottawa out of the basement if provided with at least a little support. On the other side, the team cannot escape the reality of their own rebuild and could greatly use the trade capital that they would gain from a Duchene trade. The worst case scenario – and a veritable death knell for the franchise – would be to make neither decision, opting not to trade Duchene and waiting and hoping for an extension agreement only to watch him walk away in free agency. One year later, this notorious trade is still so prevalent around the NHL. The Senators should celebrate the anniversary by making another major move with Duchene – a new contract or another trade – as soon as humanly possible.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi Will Start Season With Montreal Canadiens

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While surprise probably isn’t the correct word, the Montreal Canadiens announced that head coach Claude Julien confirmed that 18-year-old prospect Jesperi Kotkaniemi will start the season in Montreal. No word on where he might play or even what position he might play out of the gate.

“We decided that he’ll start the season here in Montreal. It’s good news for him, and it’s good news for us,” said Julien.

The 2018 third-overall pick has been debated for weeks now about whether or not he should remain with the team. While the team is desperate for help down the middle, Kotkaniemi has not played center on a regular basis in over a year as he played left wing this past season with Liiga’s Assat Pori team as a 17-year-old. With the team already having abandoned the Jonathan Drouin experiment at center and only getting a minimal look at Max Domi as their No. 1 center before being suspended for the remainder of the preseason, the team may be hoping that Kotkaniemi can work his way into the role at some point during the season.

Kotkaniemi was already somewhat of a mild surprise when the Canadiens took him with the third overall pick when there were better-known wingers ahead of him, including Brady Tkachuk and Filip Zadina, but it is believed that the Canadiens fell in love with Kotkaniemi’s potential as a future No. 1 center, which now looks to be immediate. The team is allowed to play him for nine games before they burn the first year of his entry-level contract. The team may want to see how he responds to playing in the regular season before making a final decision on whether to keep him, send him to the AHL’s Laval Rocket or return him to Finland.

One other interesting point made by The Athletic’s Arpon Basu (subscription required) is that the salary cap specifics could fit perfectly if the team keeps Kotkaniemi this season. He points out that if Kotkaniemi does play more than 10 games this season, then he will sign his second NHL contract in 2021-22 when the Canadiens have freed themselves of some significant cap room, including the contracts of Tomas Tatar, Brendan Gallagher, Jeff Petry and Phillip Danault (assuming none of them get extended). It’s also significant, because the team has quite a few other prospects that are a year behind Kotkaniemi such as Nick Suzuki, Ryan Poehling as well as a potential high pick in the 2019 NHL draft who could hit a big payday in 2022-23 and might have Montreal thinking ahead to avoid having all three get paid in the same year.

 

Montreal Canadiens Sign Paul Byron To Four-Year Extension

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Despite some speculation from the fan base that Paul Byron might be the next player out the door for the Montreal Canadiens, Byron himself confirmed last week that he was in talks for a contract extension with the team. Those talks have proved fruitful, as the Canadiens announced a new four-year, $13.6MM contract with the veteran forward. Byron has one year remaining on his current contract at $1.17MM, but will get a hefty raise to $3.4MM per year on average through 2022-23. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun adds that Byron’s contract does not contain any trade protections and will pay him $4MM in years one and three and $2.8MM in years two and four.

This move lines up nicely with what Montreal wants to do over the course of the contract: continue to be competitive while rebuilding their core. Byron has been a great fit for the Habs since coming over from the Calgary Flames via waivers early in the 2015-16 season. Byron has recorded more points in Montreal over the past two seasons (78) than he did his first 200 NHL games prior (66), including a career-high 43 in 2016-17. He has also proven to be a dependable and durable player, skating in all but one game and logging new highs in ice time in the past two years. One could argue that no Canadien has been more consistent than Byron over the past two seasons, who now has the security to further transition into a leader in the locker room.

The versatile forward joins a new Canadiens’ top six of Jonathan Drouin, Tomas Tatar, Brendan Gallagher, Max Domi, and Phillip Danault, all signed on for multiple seasons with the team. A good checker, penalty killer, and all-around two-way contributor, Byron has blossomed into a balanced player who should provide responsible play up front for years to come for the Canadiens. Byron may not have the same name value as some of this teammates or others in the mid-$3MM salary range, but make no mistake – this is a savvy signing by Montreal to lock up a very capable player.

Snapshots: Byron, Lindback, Bettman

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With the departures of Max Pacioretty and Alex Galchenyuk this summer, Paul Byron has seen his stock rise in Montreal. After breaking out with a 43-point campaign in 2016-17, Byron was again a top forward for the Canadiens last season with 35 points and a second consecutive 20-goal season. While the team’s trades have brought in the likes of Max Domi and Tomas Tatar, Byron is now one of the elder statesmen in the Habs forward corps and will be looked upon to take another step forward this year. Byron underwent off-season shoulder surgery and is focused on working his way back to full strength in training camp, with the Canadiens certainly hoping that he will be fully prepared for the regular season. One way or another, Byron’s production in 2018-19 will play a major role in Montreal’s season. Some fans see the 28-year-old impending free agent going the way of Pacioretty and being shipped out of town before he can walk next off-season. Others see him as part of the team new core moving forward. The latter philosophy gained some credence today when Sportsnet’s Eric Engels spoke with Byron. Byron stated that his agent and GM Marc Bergevin have had preliminary extension talks, although he admitted that all parties are interested in how his shoulder recovery and resulting scoring ability pan out. Byron added “I want to stay, I think they want to keep me. Hopefully we’ll get something done soon.” It seems that perhaps the Habs are moving on from trading away core pieces and could look to keep a healthy Byron around beyond this season.

  • While yesterday’s signing of Anders Lindback by HC Davos of the Swiss NLA is newsworthy enough – the veteran goaltender spent last year in the AHL and has 130 NHL games to his credit – the team’s reason for signing him will also have reverberations in the NHL. Davos was a playoff team in the NLA last season behind their young tandem of Gilles Senn, 22, and Joren van Pottelberghe, 21, and with both keepers still under contract, there was some question as to why the team felt the need to bring in a third goalie of Lindback’s pedigree. Swiss news source Tages Anzeiger reports that the age and performance of those goalies is the exact reason the team decided to move forward with a new starter. Both Senn and van Pottelberghe are NHL draft picks; Senn was selected as an overage player by the New Jersey Devils in the fifth round of 2017, while van Pottelberghe was taken by the Detroit Red Wings in the fourth round when first eligible in 2015. Given their success, Davos was unable to convince either to abandon their plan of making the jump to North America next season, after their current contracts end, to begin the next stage of their careers. Rather than be left without any experienced goalies heading into next season, Davos decided to sign Lindback to a one-year deal to see if he could instead be their long-term solution. If Lindback meets expectations this year, expect an extension sometime over the course of the season.
  • Elsewhere on the international stage, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman is very happy about the league’s growing relationship with China. The Boston Bruins and Calgary Flames are currently overseas in the second O.R.G. NHL China Games, after the Los Angeles Kings and Vancouver Canucks squared off last fall. Per NHL.com’s Dan Rosen, Bettman sees this as just the beginning and has big plans for China. In fact, Bettman stated at a press conference on Friday that he envisions regular season games in China in the future, similar to the games planned in Sweden and Finland this season. With the Chinese government and several large companies committed to building rinks and arenas across the country, it’s fair to say that hockey has already made an impact and will only continue to grow in popularity in the world’s most populous country. Bettman acknowledges that no formal talks have been had about regular season games yet, but more preseason games are being scheduled and the league only stands to benefit from a continued presence in China.

Atlantic Notes: Point, Athanasiou, Halak, Alzner

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With his entry-level contract set to expire at the end of this season, Tampa Bay Lightning center Brayden Point may only get better as he looks towards a bigger contract next season. In only his second season, the 22-year-old quickly and quietly moved into the No. 2 center position last season and went from 18 goals and 40 points in his rookie campaign to 32 goals and 66 points in his sophomore campaign last year.

Now armed with the incentive to take another big step in his development as he will get a chance to earn himself a hefty raise next season, don’t be surprised if Point takes that next step to become a point-per-game scorer in the league, according to NBC Sports Scott Billeck. Point likely wouldn’t be in this position had it not been for the unfortunate injury of Steven Stamkos in 2016-17 as Point received the roster spot in wake of Stamkos’ injury. He has made the most of it. One other reason, his growth is likely to continue is because of his impressive playoff performance last year where he posted seven goals and 16 points in 17 games.

  • MLive’s Ansar Khan writes that Detroit Red Wings winger Andreas Athanasiou could find himself a trade candidate in the coming months if he can’t prove to be a more consistent player. The 24-year-old is coming off a disappointing season in which he went from an 18-goal scorer in 2016-17 to a 16-goal scorer last season, even though he played seven more games. However, Khan writes that missing training camp and the first 10 games of the season due to a contract impasse last year might have a lot to do with his struggles. If the team was going to trade him, Khan believes the team wouldn’t be interested in draft picks as they were when they moved out Tomas Tatar to Vegas at the trade deadline. Instead, the Red Wings may be on the lookout for a defenseman, who can help their struggling defense.
  • Don’t be shocked if Boston Bruins’ new backup Jaroslav Halak turns in a solid season this year behind starter Tuukka Rask and maybe fights him eventually for the starting job. NBC Sports Joe Haggerty writes the 33-year-old may have struggled immensely the past two years with the New York Islanders, but he should be in a much better situation, defensively, in Boston. While never having been a backup before, Halak is expected to eat into some of Rask’s playing time this year. He is likely to be asked to play between 30-35 games this year, which should give him a easier workload as opposed to the 54 games he played in New York. Behind the Islanders shaky defense, Halak finished with a 3.19 GAA and a .908 save percentage. The starting job in the future may depend on how each goalie fares this year.
  • NHL.com’s Matt Cudzinowski interviewed Montreal Canadiens defenseman Karl Alzner who signed with the team last offseason, but struggled in Montreal in his first season there. The 29-year-old said he was disappointed in his play in the first year and attributed much of it to needing time to get comfortable and adjust to the way the Canadiens play. “There were definitely some growing pains,” Alzner said. “It wasn’t a very fun year of hockey. People maybe had some expectations for me that were a little bit unrealistic. I know what I can bring to this team when I’m playing well. I just need to stay under the radar and do the right things, do the little things right. That’s success for me.”

Pacific Notes: Golden Knights Prospects, Juolevi, Gaudette

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The Vegas Golden Knights are coming off an impressive inaugural season, capped off by a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals. However, with the team adjusting its original five-year plan to a much shorter one, which was proven when they traded their 2018 first-round pick to Detroit to acquire Tomas Tatar, one would think that Vegas lacks quality young prospects. However, that’s far from the case.

SinBin’s Ken Boehlke breaks down the team’s top 21 skaters and top four goaltending prospects. The scribe’s criteria for qualifying includes prospects under 23 years of age, who have played fewer than 10 NHL games. However, while many people might be expecting center Cody Glass to hold the top spot, that isn’t the case. Boehlke hands that award to 2017 first-round defenseman Erik Brannstrom instead. The 5-foot-10, 173-pound blueliner is an outstanding skater who excels at stretch passes, something that the Golden Knights are very high on. He posted solid numbers in the SHL and is ready to come over to North America. Brannstrom has a chance to win a spot on the team, but due to Vegas’ depth on defense, it’s more likely that Brannstrom will start his season off in the AHL.

  • With Vancouer’s Quinn Hughes planning to return to the University of Michigan, The Province’s Jason Botchford writes that 2016 first-round pick Olli Juolevi could get a chance to make the team now. With other bigger-named rookies like Elias Pettersson and Hughes around, Juolevi has been an almost forgotten man. However, Juolevi must prove that he belongs as the former fifth-overall pick has struggled with both the OHL London Knights as well as his TPS Turku team in the top league in Finland last season. However, Sami Salo, one of his coaches in Finland said that by the time the playoffs rolled around, Juolevi was the team’s top defenseman, suggesting he might be ready to come to the NHL and with a team full of average defenseman, he might just make it.
  • NHL.com’s Amalie Benjamin profiles the Vancouver Canucks’ Adam Gaudette, who has made it clear that he wants to make the Canucks roster out of training camp this year. The 21-year-old out of Northeastern University played five games for Vancouver after signing with the team, but failed to register a point. He will have his work cut out for him as the team signed three veterans to the team, which will likely force several youngsters to play in the AHL next season. However, Gaudette feels he’s ready. “I’ve always been kind of a guy who’s been looked down on, that won’t really get anywhere, but I embraced that, took that in and turned it around and used it as motivation,” Gaudette said. “I think that, no matter what, people are going to doubt [me] at every level. I’ve already heard it about the NHL and nothing would make me more satisfied than to just go in and prove them wrong.”

Erik Karlsson Not Likely To Get Moved To Vegas

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With their season wrapping up much more quietly than the Washington Capitals, the Vegas Golden Knights will now look to continue their success next season. Due to the failed trade deadline move to acquire Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson many months ago, many people believe that Vegas general manager George McPhee will try to rekindle those trade talks.

The move would make quite a bit of sense since Vegas’ defense struggled against Washington during their Stanley Cup run as the Capitals dominated the neutral zone throughout the finals. And while the Golden Knights have many quality top-four defensemen, what the team is truly lacking is a No. 1 defenseman, which showed against Washington. However, Elliotte Friedman suggests a deal for Karlsson might be unlikely this offseason in his 31 Thoughts segment.

Friedman writes the main reason the original Karlsson trade collapsed was Ottawa’s insistence on Vegas including 2017 first-round pick Cody Glass, the team’s top prospect. The 19-year-old center, who was the sixth-overall pick in last year’s draft, potted 37 goals and 102 points for the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL. Vegas didn’t want to include him, despite the fact that 13th overall pick Nick Suzuki, also a center, tallied 42 goals and 100 points for the OHL’s Owen Sound Attack.

The team isn’t ready to deplete it’s prospect pool. They would rather move picks such as when they traded their 2018 first-rounder, a 2019 second rounder and a 2021 third-rounder to get a player like Tomas Tatar. They already know what they have in Glass and Suzuki even if it takes another year for them to step into their lineup. However, despite having six picks in the first three rounds last year (three first-rounders), the team is still building its prospect pool for the future and with just one pick in the first three rounds this year (not in the first round), the team isn’t going to build it up a whole lot this year.

Friedman suggests that a better move for the Golden Knights would be to steal away John Carlson from Washington (McPhee drafted him back in 2008). Considering the amount of cap space Vegas has, that would be the best way to bring in veteran talent.

While many people believe that bringing in Karlsson, who has been unhappy with Ottawa’s ownership, is the better course of action, trading one (or more) of their top prospects and likely taking on the bloated contract of winger Bobby Ryan for another four years at $7.25MM will quickly destroy both their cap flexibility and cut into their small, but solid prospect pool. Vegas will have at least $28MM in cap room, so why not just spend some of it on Carlson and keep their prospects?

Perron, Carrier Draw In For Vegas In Game Five

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If the amount of Washington fans able buy Game Five tickets off of Vegas fans or the look on Alex Ovechkin’s face is any indication, this Stanley Cup final series is already over. However, the Golden Knights are not going to give up that easy. Underestimated since their inception, the team knows how to fight through adversity and tonight is no different.

To shake things up in an effort to extend the series, head coach Gerard Gallant has made some surprise changes to his lineup. Per beat writer Steve Carp, drawing back in after being a scratch in the last game is veteran winger David Perron. He will be joined by energetic checker William Carrier, who has missed the past ten games due to injury. Yet Tomas Tatar will remain in the lineup for the Knights after filling in for Perron in Game Four. Instead, bottom six contributors Ryan Carpenter and Ryan Reaves will take a seat for what may be the team’s final game of their inaugural season. Here is the projected lineup.

While Perron’s production has slowed in the postseason – no goals and eight assists in fourteen games – he in undeniably an offensive upgrade to Carpenter or Reaves. The 30-year-old winger has 444 points in 722 NHL games, including a career-high 66 points with Vegas this year. If the Knights plan to outscore the Capitals tonight, they will need both Perron and Tatar on the ice. While Carrier may be cold, he is also a pesky defensive presence and a vicious, but clean checker. Carrier brings a different element to the bottom six that Vegas has been lacking and could help to slow down the torrid Caps attack.

Will these moves make a difference? Tune in to a possibly deciding Game Five to find out.

Tomas Tatar Will Play For Golden Knights In Game Four

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The Vegas Golden Knights have made a change up front as they prepare for Game 4 against the Washington Capitals. The team will insert Tomas Tatar into the lineup likely in place of David Perron, while moving Alex Tuch up to the second line. Tatar hasn’t played since the third game against the Winnipeg Jets back on May 16th, but will get a chance to prove himself in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Perron stayed out late after the team’s morning skate and didn’t take line rushes with his usual group. If he’s fully healthy, that’s a tough decision to swallow after putting up 66 points in 70 games this season. Perron was one of the Golden Knights’ most consistent offensive threats prior to the playoffs, but has been held without a goal through 14 contests. Amazingly, that makes it 27-straight playoff games without a goal for Perron, a streak that stretches all the way back to his days with the Anaheim Ducks. He has just three in his entire 56-game playoff career, an improbable stat for a three-time 20-goal man. Perron set a new career-high in assists and points this season and the Golden Knights will need him to be a factor if he gets back into the lineup this series.

For Tatar, a chance is all that he can ask for. After being acquired by the Golden Knights at the trade deadline for a package of draft picks, he was able to score just six points for them in 20 games and has just one in the six playoff contests he’s been a part of. That’s not a good enough return for the assets that Vegas used to get him, especially given their still relatively thin minor league system that needs every pick it can get the next few years. If he wants to put all that behind him, a big performance in a near must-win game for the Golden Knights is a good way to start.

Detroit Red Wings Losing Value With Every Vegas Win

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The Vegas Golden Knights are a miraculous story. In their first year they’ve not only been competitive, but have already advanced to the Stanley Cup Finals, knocking off several top Western Conference teams in the process. The upstart expansion club has become many fans’ “second favorite team,” with people hoping to see something spectacular and historic in 2018. Those bandwagon fans don’t include many from Detroit, as the team is losing value every time the Golden Knights advance. They could do so again if Vegas finds a way to win the Stanley Cup.

At the trade deadline, the Golden Knights decided to scrap their original plan of selling off expiring assets and instead dropped a big package of draft picks to acquire Tomas Tatar from the Detroit Red Wings. That deal included a 2018 first-round pick, which at the time could have landed anywhere in the bottom third of the draft order. The Golden Knights were good, but many still believed they’d experience a late-season swoon and possible first-round exit.

Instead, Vegas rolled through the latter part of the season and finished in first place in the Pacific Division. That guaranteed the Red Wings would not be able to use the pick any earlier than 25th, and even that would have required several first-round upsets of the other division leaders. What has transpired though, as the Golden Knights continue to win series after series, is a pick that will now be either 30th or 31st. The Chicago Blackhawks will select 27th thanks to their acquisition of the Nashville Predators’ pick, while 28 and 29 are destined for whoever loses the Tampa Bay-Washington series and the recently eliminated Winnipeg Jets—though of those three, only Washington actually owns their own pick; Tampa Bay’s belongs to the New York Rangers, while Winnipeg sent theirs to St. Louis.

Though the difference in a few picks at the back of the first round isn’t as much as it would be at the top, it still carries substantial value. Every time Vegas advances, the Red Wings—who desperately needed to squeeze as much value as possible out of Tatar—will have to wait another few minutes on June 22nd. For a club that is relying on a good 2018 draft to inject more talent into a somewhat lifeless prospect pipeline, there likely has only been frustration at watching the Golden Knights knock off their competitors one by one.

In a few days, Detroit fans will have to bite the bullet and become Tampa Bay or Washington fans. Otherwise their decision to trade Tatar will pay off as little as it could have—just another way Vegas has disappointed other front offices around the league.

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