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PHR Originals: 01/30/2017 – 02/05/2017

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As we get closer to the NHL trade deadline, PHR has been pumping out the original pieces. Here is a look at the past week:

Robby Fabbri Out For Entire Season With ACL Injury

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After reporting that Robby Fabbri left last night’s game with an apparent leg injury, the St. Louis Blues have announced today that he will miss the rest of the season with an injured ACL in his left knee. The team has recalled Magnus Paajarvi and Kenny Agostino from the Chicago Wolves in a corresponding move.

Fabbri took a check from the Penguins’ Carter Rowney in the first period, slamming into the boards just in front of the Blues’ bench. He needed assistance to get off the ice and was in obvious pain, as he was heard yelling on the broadcast.

As we wrote yesterday, losing Fabbri is a big hit for St. Louis, who were trying to turn around their early season struggles. They would lose 4-1 to the Penguins last night, unable to build on their big win against the Maple Leafs on Thursday. For a team sitting at 55 points and just barely out of a playoff spot, losing a top forward can completely change the complexion of a season.

Already expected to deal expiring contracts in Kevin Shattenkirk and Patrik Berglund, it will be interesting to see how another injury like this one will affect the way the team views the trade deadline. Other players like David Perron, Paul Stastny or even Alex Steen would be attractive pieces to many teams if the Blues could make the salaries work (which will be difficult, as all three come with significant cap-hits).

The Blues were expected to be a contender for the Stanley Cup once again but are having a nightmarish season. Between Jake Allen’s struggles, nagging injuries, the Ken Hitchcock circus and now the end to Fabbri’s year, the team may want to put this year in their rear-view mirror.

Peter Budaj And The Comeback Kids

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Peter Budaj was done. Finished. Washed-up. On his way out. Lost at sea.

Then, suddenly he wasn’t.

When Jonathan Quick and Jeff Zatkoff both sustained injuries within the first two weeks of the season, many believed the Kings would panic and overpay for a replacement netminder. Ben Bishop, Jimmy Howard, Marc-Andre Fleury were all names that were expected to be linked to the west-coast royalty, but nothing materialized. The team immediately said that they weren’t going to overpay for a goaltender when they weren’t sure how long Quick would be out, and believed their team was good enough to hold down a playoff spot until his return. What they didn’t expect, was that they would get all-star level goaltending from a guy who had never given it before, and who was rapidly approaching the back half of his thirties.

Peter Budaj made his first start for the Los Angels Kings this season on October 20th, and allowed three goals on 20 shots. Here we go, thought Kings’ fans who expected an .850 save percentage was about all they would get from a 34-year old journeyman. After all, Budaj had played in just one NHL game the last two seasons, and had a career .903 save percentage. Their season was lost unless they went out and got another goaltender, but how could they afford it?

And then, magic. Budaj would find another gear and lead the Kings to a 24-14-3 record while recording a .923 save percentage. His seven shutouts lead the league (ahead of some household names in Braden Holtby, Devan Dubnyk and Tuukka Rask) and he’s recorded a goals against average 0.7 less than his career average. In short, he’s been great.

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Atlantic Notes: Lightning Woes, Maple Leafs, Viola

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The Tampa Bay are in unfamiliar territory writes the Tampa Times’ Joe Smith. Sitting in the basement of the Eastern Conference, the Lightning have lost six of their last seven games and are sorting out exactly what is wrong. Veteran Brian Boyle says that it’s driving everyone “crazy” on the team, while Smith writes that the Bolts are playing like a team without confidence. Keep in mind, this is the 2014-15 Stanley Cup runner up and a squad that came within a game of returning to the Stanley Cup Final last season. Lauded for his ability to keep the roster together, Smith adds that general manager Steve Yzerman will not make a panic trade to turn the team’s fortunes. But Smith believes a change is necessary somewhere.

  • Mike Babcock only wants to look ahead, and not dwell on the Maple Leafs’ recent struggles writes The Toronto Sun’s Terry Koshan. The Leafs slipped out of the playoff hunt by three points in both the division and the Wild Card race, but Babcock believes it’s a moment of accountability for each of the players. Koshan writes that Auston Matthews has just one point in his last seven games, while Frederik Andersen’s struggles haven’t helped the team’s fortunes at all. After posting back-to-back shutouts last week, Andersen gave up three against Dallas and five in St. Louis. Andersen “owns” his struggles, Koshan reports, and the veteran netminder knows he has to be better–along with the rest of the team.
  • Florida Panthers owner Vincent Viola has declined President Donald Trump’s offer to be secretary of the Army reports the Sun-Sentinel’s Harvey Fialkov. In a statement, Viola said the following:

“I am deeply honored to have been considered for this post, and appreciate the confidence President Trump showed in me,” Viola said in the statement. “I offer my continued support for President Trump and his administration, and look forward to re-doubling my efforts to support the Army and its veterans as a private citizen.”

Fialkov adds that Viola was struggling to separate himself from his business affiliations. Minority owner Doug Cifu would have taken over had Viola chosen to accept the post.

Pacific Division Snapshots: Marleau, Miller, Oilers D

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Prior to the start of the season, it seemed to be virtually a foregone conclusion that it would be Patrick Marleau’s last in San Jose. After all, the veteran of 19 NHL campaigns will turn 38 before opening night in 2017-18 and will reportedly be seeking a multiyear pact this summer as a free agent. However, a recent hot streak that has seen Marleau record seven goals in his last five games may have moved the needle some on the likelihood he remains in Northern California. According to Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area, his return may ultimately hinge entirely on his willingness to accept a one-year deal worth something in the neighborhood of $3MM to $4MM.

Kurz compares the current situation with Marleau to that of Dan Boyle, who hit free agency at the age of 37 in the summer of 2014 and left the Sharks because the two sides couldn’t agree on the length of a new deal. Boyle would ink a two-year deal with the New York Rangers and as Kurz writes, the longtime Sharks blue liner was “devastated” to leave the Bay Area. Marleau has tallied 19 goals in 52 games this season and could attract multiyear offers on the open market this summer based on that strong production, in which case it’s probable he won’t be donning a Sharks jersey in 2017-18.

Elsewhere in the Pacific Division:

  • Like Marleau, it seemed likely that Vancouver goalie Ryan Miller would have a new home by the time the 2017-18 season started. The Canucks were expected by many to be a lottery team in 2016-17 and with Miller in the final year of his deal he would have represented an interesting rental asset the team could have cashed in to advance their rebuild. However, with Vancouver surprisingly still in the playoff hunt and with Miller turning in a solid performance between the pipes, the chances of the 36-year-old sticking around for another year or two have increased, as Ben Kuzma writes in a piece for the Vancouver Sun. Kuzma notes that good teams need quality play in net, pointing out the difference between former Canucks bench boss Alain Vigneault and the recently fired Ken Hitchcock of St. Louis. Vigneault, who has been fortunate to have Henrik Lundqvist, Cory Schneider and Roberto Luongo man the pipes during his coaching career, just inked a two-year extension and received a raise to $4MM annually. The Blues have received lackluster play in goal this season and that fact played a role in Hitch’s termination. If Miller is willing to take a short-term deal to stay with Vancouver, he could provide a solid bridge to top prospect Thatcher Demko.
  • While the Oilers have received better play from their blue line in 2016-17, the team’s top-four has struggled of late, leading David Staples of the Edmonton Journal to suggest shuffling not just the defense corps but also the club’s forward lines. Staples tracks contributions that lead to scoring chances for and mistakes which lead to scoring chances against, and of late too many of the team’s key players are responsible for more of the latter than the former. The scribe feels the team could elevate Matt Benning and/or Brandon Davidson into the top-four, spreading the defensive responsibilities around some. Up front Staples thinks it’s time to split up Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, perhaps putting the struggling Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on McDavid’s wing. Ultimately, if the team continues to struggle, it’s possible Edmonton will circle back to the trade market to seek additional depth.

Blues Notes: Ribeiro, Hitchcock, Johnson, Armstrong

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The Blues may be one of the more interesting teams leading up to the trade deadline. The team has talent, but has underachieved this year and is battling just to make the postseason as a wild card. St. Louis took the surprising step of firing highly-respected head coach Ken Hitchcock, who had already announced he was retiring following the 2016-17 season, but more changes could be on the way.

Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hosted his weekly chat with Blues fans today and tackled several queries regarding what steps the team might take next. It goes without saying but the whole post is well worth your time. Regardless, here’s a compilation of a few of the highlights:

  • Rutherford has long suggested the Blues need help at the center position and with Mike Ribeiro hitting the waiver wire today, one reader wondered whether St. Louis would take a chance on the talented pivot. While Ribeiro has a solid track record of offensive production, Rutherford just doesn’t see the soon-to-be-37-year-old as a fit for the Blues, citing the fact he has been a healthy scratch in Nashville on several occasions this season. Ribeiro does have 25 points in 46 games this season but only four goals. It’s likely the Predators sought potential trade partners prior to waiving Ribeiro and it would seem there wasn’t much interest. It’s possible someone besides St. Louis in need of center help will take a chance given the pivot is in the final season of his contract and wouldn’t come with much risk as a result. He did register a 50-point campaign in 2015-16 and tallied 62 the season before, suggesting he might still be able to help a team offensively.
  • The scribe also addressed whether Hitchcock’s name might come up in connection with the Las Vegas head coaching job. Rutherford is of the impression the veteran bench boss wouldn’t be “keen” on the idea and while he doesn’t specify as to why, it’s possible that the 65-year-old is simply at a point in his career where he wouldn’t want to take on the challenge of building an expansion franchise from the ground up. However, despite the fact he was set to retire after the 2016-17 season, many in the industry have said they wouldn’t be surprised to see Hitch back in the league at some point.
  • The Blues and Lightning have been linked as potential trading partners, given St. Louis’ issues in goal and the possible availability of pending free agent netminder Ben Bishop. However, Rutherford has heard that the Blues have interest in another Tampa Bay player: center Tyler Johnson. Johnson would make a ton of sense for the Blues. The team likely still fancies themselves as Stanley Cup contenders – if not necessarily this year – and a hypothetical deal for Johnson not only addresses a weakness now but would add a talented player who can be controlled as a RFA beyond the current campaign. Rutherford doesn’t specify what Tampa Bay would want in return but it’s safe to say a top-four defenseman would have to be part of the discussion.
  • Lastly, Rutherford’s colleague with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Jesus Ortiz, argues that the Blues “fired the wrong guy” when they dismissed Hitchcock. Ortiz is of the belief the team should instead have given GM Doug Armstrong his walking papers. He points to the hiring of Mike Yeo as “head-coach-in-waiting” as potentially undermining the authority of the veteran bench boss. In the press conference following the firing, Armstrong made a reference to “independent contractors,” when describing some of the players on the team and it’s fair to wonder if that condition is related to the team’s overall approach to the handling of the coaching situation. Ortiz also suggests that allowing Troy Brouwer and David Backes to depart as free agents hurt the team both on the ice and from a leadership perspective. Additionally, the team’s decision to trade goalie Brian Elliott and install Jake Allen as the undisputed #1 seems to have backfired. Hitchcock has long been able to coax above-average play between the pipes due in large part to his strong defensive structure. That hasn’t been the case this season as each of the team’s goalies, Allen and Carter Hutton, has a S% below 0.900. However, it should be noted that Elliott is also struggling in Calgary, and there is no guarantee he would have duplicated his success from last season had he remained with the Blues.

Trade Deadline Reflection: Finding Value In The Margins

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The trade deadline now more than ever is a tough time to impact your team. With the tightening cap structure, long-term deals for young players and league-wide parity (however falsely constructed), finding a deal that works for both teams in a time-sensitive manner is a struggle. While every year there are one or two big name players moved, shocking deals (in the manner of Shea Weber for P.K. Subban) usually wait until the summer.

It’s because of this that fans and media alike must learn to love the small deals, the hockey swaps and the fresh starts. In these trades, teams can find a player that fits perfectly into their system and adds depth for a playoff run. Under-performing teams can take chances on fallen stars, prospects who have been labeled as early busts, or veterans who can make an impact in the development of a young player.

Though deals for Kevin Shattenkirk and Matt Duchene might sound fun, it’s often the Patrick Eaves or Ron Hainsey addition that makes a meaningful impact. To take a page from baseball, adding value anywhere is equal; upgrading the bottom pairing by a lot may be as important as improving your first line by a little. Last year, there were several deals of this nature.

Anaheim added goal scoring to their lineup by bringing in Jamie McGinn and Brandon Pirri on deadline day. The two would score 11 goals in 30 games (total), with McGinn scoring another pair in the playoffs. Edmonton would benefit from the deals as it let the Ducks part with Patrick Maroon later that day. Maroon made an immediate impact for the Oilers and has continued it with an 18 goal season  this year (though playing with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl doesn’t hurt). Justin Schultz

Florida was only able to deal Pirri away because they’d added depth of their own in Teddy Purcell and Jiri Hudler. The pair of upcoming UFAs would each perform quite well for Florida down the stretch helping them lock up first place in the Atlantic Division.

Pittsburgh may have been the biggest winners in late-February without making a huge splash. On the 27th, just a couple of days before the deadline they made the small move of acquiring Justin Schultz. It only cost them a third-round pick (which would be #91 after the Penguins won the Cup). Though Schultz made an impact down the stretch with eight points in 18 games, this season that he has really shone. It’s been 35 points in 47 games for the former Edmonton Oiler.

It’s interesting to watch all the fanfare surround deals like Andrew Ladd, Kris Russell and Eric Staal. None of those deals worked out that well for their teams, despite the huge price tags. So when approaching this deadline don’t shrug off the little deals. They may be just as important, and much more affordable, than going after the big fish.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Arizona Coyotes Trade Henrik Samuelsson To Edmonton Oilers

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Just hours after dealing Justin Peters to the Dallas Stars, the Arizona Coyotes are at it again. They’ve sent Henrik Samuelsson to the Edmonton Oilers for Mitch Moroz. Both players were selected in the 2012 draft, just five picks apart (27th and 32nd respectively).

Samuelsson was once a highly regarded prospect, going in the first round and bursting onto the AHL season as a rookie. He scored 40 points in 68 games that season and had the pedigree of his former-NHL father Ulf Samuelsson. Since that rookie season when he got a three-game taste with the Coyotes, Samuelsson has completely dropped off the map. Scoring just 12 points last season and dealing with multiple lower-body injuries has him almost listed as a bust among Arizona prospects. His skating has never been good enough for the NHL and though he’s only 22, it will be a long road ahead for him to turn it around.

Moroz, much the same story, was a teammate of Samuelsson on the Edmonton Oil Kings when they won a Memorial Cup in 2014. Selected just a few picks later he hadn’t reached the same scoring highs as his teammate but was expected to grow into a legitimate NHL power forward. Also just 22, he may still find the scoring touch that he has been sorely missing but it’s been a long three years since he left junior. In 123 AHL games, Moroz has just 22 points. Even his physical play has taken a step backwards, and he’ll need to find new motivation should he want to continue his professional career.

It’s an odd move for the Coyotes, who would be the last team expected to go after a former enforcer with little to no scoring ability. Perhaps they see something in Moroz that the Oilers have given up on, but more likely this is just a positional move as the Coyotes have a surplus of centers and the Oilers need some for their minor league squad.

Stars Acquire Goalie Peters From Coyotes

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The Dallas Stars and Arizona Coyotes combined to finalize a trade this afternoon with four minor league players changing hands. Dallas announced the transaction on their official NHL.com website. The most notable name is that of goaltender Justin Peters, who goes from the desert to the Stars organization. He has appeared in 83 career NHL games, posting a GAA of 3.08 and a S% of 0.901 over parts of seven seasons. In three games earlier this season with Arizona, Peters has a loss in his only decision while allowing seven goals on 70 shots against.

Peters will provide experienced depth and a possible upgrade for Dallas’ AHL affiliate, the Texas Stars. Texas goaltenders have combined for a GAA of 3.35 and a S% of 0.890 in 50 games this season. Peters hasn’t had a particularly strong season for Arizona’s Tucson affiliate, recording a GAA of 4.17 and a S% of 0.868, but has posted solid numbers in the past in that league.

Also coming to Dallas is defenseman Justin Hache, who was Arizona’s seventh-round pick in the 2012 entry draft. He has split this season between the Coyotes AHL and ECHL affiliates, tallying one assist in five games for Tucson and nine points in 21 contests for the Rapid City Rush.

Joining the Coyotes organization are forwards Brendan Ranford and Branden Troock. Ranford is the only one of the two to have seen any NHL action, appearing in one game with Dallas last season. The 5-foot-10, 182-pound left wing was originally a seventh-round selection in 2010 by Philadelphia. Since turning pro in 2013-14, Ranford has appeared in a total of 250 games with Texas and has registered a scoring line of 55-105=160 with 89 minutes in penalties.

Troock, a 6-foot-2, 194-pound right wing was chosen by the Stars in the fifth-round of the 2012 draft and has spent the last four campaigns splitting time between Texas and Idaho of the ECHL. In 98 career AHL games, Troock has scored nine goals with 30 points.

It’s unlikely this trade will pay dividends for either team at the NHL level, but it’s possible that the clubs are shuffling some of their minor league depth in order to better facilitate another, more significant deal later. It’s likely the Coyotes will be a seller at the trade deadline and wingers Shane Doan and Radim Vrbata may generate interest in the weeks ahead. Adding Ranford and Troock gives the Arizona organization enough experienced minor league depth at that position to help survive the loss of one or both NHL veterans, should the right offer come along.

 

Trade Candidate: Jimmy Howard

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.

Another trade candidate, another Red Wing. This time, we’ll look at veteran netminder Jimmy Howard, who has been the subject of trade rumors since last summer.

Contract

Six-year, $31.750MM deal. Three years remaining. $5.291MM AAV.

2016-17

In a season where the Red Wings have struggled tremendously, Howard has been the antidote to a team hemorrhaging goals. While Petr Mrazek was expected to be the stalwart in net, it’s been Howard and rookie Jared Coreau picking up the slack for Detroit. Howard, however, has succumbed to injury twice this season, but is close to coming back. The real question is which Howard will return? The dominant one? Or the Howard of seasons past, who has struggled to find his groove following injury?

Season Stats

GP: 17 (15 started): 5-7-1; .934 sv%; 1.96 GAA; .667 QS%

Potential Suitors

When healthy, Howard has been extremely good for the Red Wings. This season alone, on a team that is dreadful at both ends of the ice, Howard has stolen games while keeping the Wings in games they should have been out of early.

Dallas is one team to look at, especially since former Detroit assistant general manager Jim Nill is there. Though the Stars are trying to figure out what they are, Howard could be an asset with two years remaining and numbers that are certainly better than that of what the Stars currenly have in Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen. But outside of familiarity, there are few teams on the radar.

While Howard could fetch offers, there is one key reason he will scare off potential buyers.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Howard’s contract is a hinderance to any team interested. Still locked in for two seasons with over $10MM owed, few teams are going to bite on a deal that involves a strong performing, but injury prone goalie. While Howard’s name has been mentioned before, the Wings couldn’t peddle him elsewhere last summer.  There are also rumblings that Detroit could be growing impatient with Mrazek, and may dangle Mrazek as trade bait. But that could be speculation in a season that has been disastrous for a franchise not used to losing as often–and as badly–as they have been.

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