The Red Wings weren’t exactly sluggish heading into the Olympic break. They still mustered a 5-3-2 record in their last 10. But after holding the Atlantic Division lead for a good chunk of the season, that recent pace wasn’t enough to keep them from getting leapfrogged by the red-hot Lightning and Canadiens. Now, they sit in third place in the division with a six-point gap between them and first place, while both Tampa and Montreal have games in hand on them.
The question is whether their recent run of wild-card level play is more representative of their roster than their 18-5-2 run between December and mid-January that vaulted them into the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference. A look at most underlying numbers says the former is true. They’re the only team in playoff position in the East with a negative goal differential (-1) and are 11th in the conference in that regard. Their possession numbers, while improved from a years-long stretch of being in the basement, are still below average. At 5-on-5, they’re 17th in the league in Corsi for percentage (49.9%), 23rd in scoring chance percentage (48.0%), and 20th in high-danger chance percentage (48.8%).
It’s not just advanced possession numbers. Nearly every metric points to the Wings as a middle-of-the-road club. Their team shooting percentage is down to 22nd (10.5%), and their team save percentage is 17th at .893. The only real stat in which Detroit is a top-10 team is power-play percentage, where their ninth-place unit is clicking at 23.1%.
Nonetheless, their 33-19-6 record at the break is good for a .621 points percentage, eighth in the NHL and fifth in the East. With a chance to end a nine-year playoff drought on the line, Detroit GM Steve Yzerman has no choice but to buy. It’s nonetheless clear that the Wings are more than just a rental piece away from being a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, though.
The Bolts, with their underlying numbers backing up their weeks-long hot streak, have more than a 90% chance to run away with the division title. Detroit has a higher chance of falling back into a wild-card spot – or missing the playoffs entirely – than they do to reclaim first place, per MoneyPuck. Most likely, they’ll tread water and end up roughly where they are now with a divisional date against the Canadiens, Sabres, or whoever else falls into the 2/3 matchup with them.
The road to a Conference Final is arduous. The road to their first series win since 2013, though, is traversable. They’re due to run into a similarly flawed roster in the first round if they can hold onto a divisional berth. That leaves Yzerman with a clear directive to start cleaning up around the edges – not necessarily making a big splash for short-term gain – in order to help get them into Round Two.
Their goaltending is set. John Gibson is the clear No. 1 over veteran pending UFA Cam Talbot and has recovered nicely after stumbling out of the gate. If the Wings want to try to flip Talbot for an upgrade in the No. 2 slot, though, that wouldn’t be the worst idea. Gibson’s injury history is a lengthy one, and trusting Talbot, who’s posting a .892 SV% and -5.7 goals saved above expected in his age-38 season, to handle playoff starts is unwise. Giving up a mid-round pick to pursue a UFA-for-UFA flip/upgrade – potentially a reunion with San Jose’s Alex Nedeljkovic – could quietly pay dividends.
Defensive depth has long been the Wings’ Achilles heel as they try to exit their rebuild. Thanks to the arrivals of Simon Edvinsson and Axel Sandin Pellikka over the last two years, that’s no longer as much of a concern. Being one injury away from having to play struggling veteran Travis Hamonic in a playoff game, though, isn’t a comfortable place to be in. When operating at full health, the Wings have been able to deploy Albert Johansson and Jacob Bernard-Docker as an effective third pairing, controlling 52.5% of expected goals. When a top-four name gets hurt, though, Bernard-Docker gets elevated and Hamonic steps in with Johansson. That duo has been shelled for a 42.4 xGF% at 5-on-5, per MoneyPuck.
Regardless of handedness, landing a blue-liner to bump Hamonic down the depth chart – even if the pickup doesn’t take regular playing time away from Bernard-Docker or Johansson – is a wise choice that won’t cost a pretty penny.
For those who haven’t kept in tune with Detroit’s forward group this season, the extremes of where players are producing can be jarring. It’s hard to fathom where the Wings would be this season without Alex DeBrincat‘s torrid stretch, with his conference-leading 205 shots on goal giving him 30 tallies in 58 games. Behind him, though, only three other Wings have hit 10 goals on the year – one of them being bottom-six piece James van Riemsdyk, and nearly half of his production has come on the power play.
More goal-scoring is needed, plain and simple. Detroit’s offense ranks 20th in the league with 2.97 goals per game. Patrick Kane‘s had a rough go of things with only eight tallies in 43 games. Reducing his ice time and responsibility, especially given his defensive shortcomings, should be a priority. That means adding a second-line target to complement DeBrincat, either down the middle or on the wing, who can bump a name like Kane or Andrew Copp down to a more sheltered role at even strength.
Some of them won’t break the bank. Pending UFA Michael Bunting out of Nashville wouldn’t command a huge price but could slot in either opposite DeBrincat on the second line or flank Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond on the top unit while adding an appreciated element of pest-like behavior. With 12 goals on the year and a career finishing rate of 13.1%, he fits the mold they need.
With all that in mind, which of the Red Wings’ needs is the most pressing for Yzerman to address in the few weeks before the trade deadline? Have your say in the poll below: