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Prospect Snapshots: Vesalainen, Kopacka, Nosek

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Finland’s Kristian Vesalainen was named the MVP of the 2017 U18 IIHF Ice Hockey World Champions today despite the team’s 4-2 loss to Team USA in the gold medal game today . The 17-year-old forward is considered to be a first-round target in the upcoming 2017 NHL Draft and his stock could be rising after he scored six goals and 13 points in the tournament. NHL.com has him rated the seventh-ranked European skater in the draft.

Versalainen was also named the Best Forward in the Directorate Awards along with fellow countryman Miro Heiskanen for Best Defenseman and Russia’s Maxim Zhukov as the Best Goaltender. The United States had three players voted to the Media All-Star team, including goalie lan St. Cyr, defenseman Maxwell Gidon and forward Sean Dhooghe. Vesalainen, Heiskanen and Russian forward Ivan Chekhovich rounded out the voting.

  • The Anaheim Ducks announced they have signed 2016 fourth-round pick Jack Kopacka to a three-year entry-level contract today. The 19-year-old wing led his team, the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds of the Ontario Hockey League with 30 goals this year. He also added 19 assists for 49 points. The 93rd overall pick in this past draft finished with 50 goals in two plus seasons with his OHL team. Kopacka is the second player from his team to sign an NHL deal today as Tampa Bay signed his teammate Boris Katchouk earlier today.
  • Detroit Red Wings Tomas Nosek continues his success in the AHL this year and, according to Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James, is beginning to show that he belongs in the Red Wings lineup next season. The 24-year-old forward scored the overtime goal in the Grand Rapids Griffins Game 1 playoff series against the Milwaukee Admirals and has taken his game up a level from a year ago. Nosek played 11 games for the Red Wings this season, scoring one goal, but since this is his third season in the AHL, he will no longer by waiver exempt, so Detroit may have to look at him more closely.

John Stevens Hired As L.A. Kings’ Coach

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John Stevens has officially been hired as the new coach for the Los Angeles Kings per Helene Elliott, filling the void left by the firing of Darryl Sutter. In a hiring that is neither shocking nor particularly adventurous, Stevens will move up from his previous position of associate coach to head coach for Los Angeles. In the wake of another disappointing season for the team in which they missed the playoffs, both GM Dean Lombardi and Coach Sutter were quickly fired. Both had been crucial to the success of the franchise, landing the team its first two Stanley Cups in 2011-12 and 2013-14. Kings’ ownership had apparently not interviewed anyone other than Stevens for the gig, although they had talked to a potential assistant in Jim Montgomery.

Stevens boasts a solid, if uninspiring, overall record of 122-111-34 in the NHL. His previous head coaching experience with the Flyers left murmurs of discontent following his departure, which only grew more pronounced as that squad then challenged for a Stanley Cup, seemingly reinvigorated by his firing. However, he now has his successful assistant tenure to add to his Calder Cup winning resume. There is a lot to be said for familiarity, and when Los Angeles takes the ice this fall, it will do so without the practically iconic Sutter behind the bench, and also likely an overhauled player roster. For those leaders who still remain from the championship squads, a familiar face behind the bench in a new era full of uncertainty may provide some semblance of comfort.

Under Sutter, the Kings were a dominant puck possession force, but despite their successes, often struggled to find consistent offensive production.  They finished 8th, 3rd, 4th, and 6th in the four seasons before this one in Corsi For %, a solid indicator of puck possession and time spent applying offensive pressure. Yet, they finished 22nd this season, netting only 126 goals, good for a terrible 26th in the league. Jeff Carter was the only forward to break the 60 point mark, and some of the defensemen had horrendous plus-minus and Corsi showings (Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin). The team looked sluggish for long stretches of time, and the squad often lacked killer instinct. Injuries certainly didn’t help their cause, but the strong play of Peter Budaj in relief for Jonathan Quick cannot be easily scapegoated for the team’s collective failures.

Stevens will need to prove early that he is capable of changing the mindset of this Kings’ team. They have arguably been too complacent in the past two seasons with low-scoring affairs and being on the playoff bubble. Ownership is hoping his positive attitude and strong existing relationships with players will enable him to have success when the Kings start anew in October.

RFAs Looking For Playoff Payouts

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Every post-season, players look to make their mark. Relative unknowns break onto the scene, rookies steal the show, and goaltenders go from backup to fan-embraced starter. Contracts are always in the back of management’s thinking, however, and a strong post-season showing for a player can cost a team in dollars. Here are some restricted free agents who could stand to earn a more lucrative deal depending on how far their teams go and how bright they shine individually.

 

Ryan Johansen – NSH

Johansen will look to get a slight raise from his current $4.0 MM cap hit. A large determinant for whether he will see a take-home pay ($6.0 MM) decrease or not will be his performance in these playoffs. Johansen’s past two seasons have been fruitful in terms of points, 60 in 15-16 and 61 in 16-17, but not quite the numbers of the marquee offensive star Nashville fans were hoping for. This is a player who scored 33 goals in the 13-14 season, and was projected to consistently flirt with 80 points. Johansen’s imposing frame and play-style is a challenge for opposing centers, and he has undeniably improved his defensive prowess. Johansen only potted 14 goals this year, but it is fair to say his game has become more well-rounded. His Corsi For % took a massive hop from last season, taking a solid 52.3% to a remarkable 55.9% this past outing. Considering his quality of competition and his ability to provide solid two-way play, Johansen will be looking to prove his worth this post-season with a deep post-season run with the Predators.

Evgeny Kuznetsov – WAS

Washington’s Kuznetsov should definitely be considered part of the team’s core. At 24 years old, the center has already tallied a 77 point season and had a 5-goal playoff run. His inconsistency in terms of production could hinder his payday, however, as he struggled to regain his footing in what was essentially his third full season. He returned to form on the backend of the season, totaling a respectable if unremarkable 59 points. The flashy forward already has 3 points through 5 games against Toronto,  and a strong playoff showing can only help his position. With Nicklas Backstrom taking first-line duties and the red-hot Justin Williams on his wing, Kuznetsov could easily find himself in the spotlight again. Whether his next contract is a bridge deal at a lower cost or a long-term lock-down, Kuznetsov is certain to see a raise from his measly $3 MM.

Leon Draisaitl – EDM

Anyone who has watched Edmonton this season in hopes of catching a glimpse of Connor McDavid has undoubtedly been shocked and/or awed by the dominance of his 21 year-old linemate Draisaitl. Draisaitl’s vision with the puck and dogged determination make him a beautiful sight to behold. He accumulated an absurd 77 points this season, 29 goals and 48 assists, in what was only his second full season. The forward is already flirting with a point per game, and has shown remarkable chemistry with the generational talent McDavid. His flexibility in being able to shift from center to wing only makes him that much more valuable to the franchise. The Oilers will obviously pay whatever price is needed to lock up Draisaitl long-term, but the deeper the team goes, the better his bargaining position. He’s obviously going to get a fair deal more than his current $3.4 MM, likely upwards of $6 MM.

Conor Sheary – PIT

Conor Sheary had an incredible breakout season that practically no one, even Penguins fans, expected. On Sidney Crosby’s wing, the short-statured winger made himself absolutely invaluable. The chemistry the two showed together hadn’t really been seen since the likes of Hossa in Pittsburgh’s Finals run of 2007-08. Sheary is in a bit of a bind, however, as Jake Guentzel has shown equal or even greater chemistry with the league’s marquee center since being placed on the top line. Sheary struggled to find his groove in the first round series, even being demoted to the third line in favor of Patric Hornqvist. Sheary is a good bet to string together solid showings in the next round, but if he does not, perhaps it impacts his case for a long-term contract. Regardless, Sheary will look to eat up a large portion of the money allocated this offseason in Pittsburgh, as his current $0.925 MM cap hit is one of the best bargains in the league. His 53 points in 61 games placed him at 23rd in the league in points per game, ahead of the likes of Phil Kessel and John Tavares.

Mika Zibanejad – NYR

The Rangers organization loves this player, and it is easy to see why. His point totals had steadily increased the past three seasons, and he was looking to do so again if he did not miss so many games to injury. Zibanejad is a strong center who takes pride in his two-way ability. He has a solid shot, although he might be criticized for under-utlizing it, and is often deployed against opposing team’s top players. Considering that New York gave up the solid veteran Derick Brassard to acquire his skillset, they are nearly certain to double down on Zibanejad’s continued improvement. His role will only expand as the leadership of the team ages and he will be expected to fill some of the leadership void left behind. Zibanejad is up for a new contract, and will look for a sizable raise over his current $2.625 MM. There is perhaps still untapped offensive potential left in Zibanejad’s game, but will he display it in these playoffs? He has already potted 4 points in 6 games in the team’s successful series against Montreal, including an overtime winner.

Central Notes: Nashville’s “Red Rover” Trap, Sakic, Stastny

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As the Chicago Blackhawks cleaned out their lockers, a number of quotes were mined from various reporters. One of the more interesting ones, reported by several outlets, was one from Patrick Kane regarding the key to Nashville’s dominance during the four game sweep. From the Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus, we all learn that Chicago bench boss Joel Quenneville nicknamed the Nashville trap “Red Rover” and Patrick Kane doesn’t think it’s the greatest thing for hockey fans:

“A team like that, you kind of hope they don’t win, because I don’t know if that’s necessarily the best way to watch hockey games, and to actually have that excitement level,” Kane said. “But on the other [hand], they played good going the other way, too. They kind of sat back, but their transition game is fast, and they played with a lot of speed the other way. That gave us problems.”

Though the first part of the quote might sound like sour grapes, Kane was quick to give credit to a team that stifled Chicago’s scoring opportunities, limiting them to just three goals in four games. Winger Marian Hossa attributed the dump and chase game Chicago was forced to play as a major reason they lost–they never got comfortable.

  • The Denver Post’s Mark Kiszla thinks Colorado Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic would be foolish for not chasing after University of Denver coach Jim Montgomery. Kiszla writes that Montgomery has built Denver into a powerhouse and would be the perfect addition to a team with young players and in the midst of a massive rebuilding project. Since Florida has Montgomery lined up for an interview, Kiszla wonders if it would behoove Sakic to do whatever it takes to keep the national championship winning coach in the state. Current coach Jared Bednar, he writes, shouldn’t be retained only out of pity. Montgomery is the “real deal” according to Kiszla and should be strongly considered if the Avs are truly looking to improve their fortunes.
  • The Blues got a huge addition before their game with Minnesota when Paul Stastny returned to action for a crucial game five tilt writes Sportsnet’s Josh Gold-Smith. The Blues have a chance to take out the Wild in five games and rest for the next round.  Stastny was slotted in with Vladimir Tarasenko and Jayden Schwartz. As of the writing, Stastny was on the ice for Tarasenko’s opening goal.

How Did The Top Five Picks In The 2016 Draft Class Fare?

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As the importance of drafting and developing talent takes precedence in a hard cap league, PHR takes a look at how the first five picks from the 2016 NHL Draft fared nearly a calendar year after their selection.

#1: Auston Matthews – Toronto Maple Leafs

It almost seems silly writing about him since the Calder Trophy nominated center has been one of the major reasons the Leafs made the playoffs and have given the Capitals fits. Matthews had 69 points in 82 games (40-29) and was everything the Leafs could have hoped he would be. Matthews scored four goals in his debut, and though he had his share of rookie struggles, looked wise beyond his very young age on the ice. Already in the playoffs, Matthews has four points in five games in the playoffs (3-1) and will certainly lead this team to a contender status in the years to come.

#2: Patrik Laine – Winnipeg Jets

Hardly a consolation prize, Laine is also a Calder Trophy finalist and finished the season with 64 points (36-28) but it was individual performances that garnered attention. Laine registered three hat tricks this season, and in a strictly point-per-game glance, Laine led Matthews and every other rookie this season.  Should Winnipeg improve their fortunes, Laine has the game breaking ability to take a talented team deep into the playoffs.

Oct 19, 2016; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) chases Winnipeg Jets right wing Patrik Laine (29) during the third period at MTS Centre. Winnipeg won 5-4 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports

#3: Pierre-Luc Dubois – Columbus Blue Jackets

One of only two players in the top ten to not spend time with the big club, Dubois split time with Cape Breton and Blainville-Boisbriand in the QMJHL. He didn’t disappoint. Combined, the left winger had 55 points in 48 games (21-34) and has been dynamic in the President’s Cup playoffs, posting 14 points (5-9) in 11 games. The Armada are currently in the semi-finals against Charlottetown (trailing 1-0), and if his current performance is any indication, Dubois could find himself breaking camp with the Blue Jackets next fall.

#4: Jesse Puljujarvi – Edmonton Oilers

Puljujarvi was sent down in early January after making the team out of camp, and his numbers in Bakersfield were respectable: 28 points (12-16) in 39 games and the opportunity to play real minutes instead of playing limited time in Edmonton. Puljujarvi appears to be a rising star, and the extra seasoning should help. His play will continue as he was loaned to Finland’s national team to play in the World Championships.

#5: Olli Juolevi – Vancouver Canucks

Juolevi spent the season with the London Knights, racking up 42 points (10-32) in 58 games. His point total matched his 2015-16 results, with the exception of adding a goal. Juolevi scored the game winning goal in the first round of the OHL playoffs against Windsor that sent the Knights onto the second round, where they ultimately lost to Erie in seven games. During their 14 game run, Juolevi had eight points (3-5). The smooth puck moving defenseman was the first blueliner taken in the draft, and could be a candidate to make the team next year as the Canucks will be retooling their roster with more youth.

Atlantic Notes: Detroit’s Prospects, Babcock, Canadiens

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With the Detroit Red Wings still deciding on how to proceed after a disappointing season, it’s the playoff run for AHL affiliate Grand Rapids that stands as a great development tool for future prospects writes the Detroit News’ Ted Kulfan. The Griffins lead the AHL in most playoff games played (59) since 2013, and look to build upon this with a slew of young talent destined to fill the NHL roster. Yesterday’s Calder Cup playoff opener saw the Griffins drop Milwaukee 4-3, thanks to the efforts of several young players, namely Tomas Nosek and Evgeny Svechnikov. Nosek potted the overtime game winner while Svechnikov added one of his own. While it’s not the NHL, Kulfan adds that the playoff atmosphere is the perfect way to expose the younger players to the pressures that wait. Both Nosek and Svechnikov had a cup of coffee with the Wings this season, and a longer playoff run will help those two, along with the others, grow in ability as they approach a regular gig in the NHL.

  • The Toronto Sun’s Steve Simmons writes that in the midst of Buffalo’s turmoil, it was Mike Babcock’s wife who ultimately won the battle between Buffalo and Toronto for getting his services. It turns out, according to Simmons, that Mrs. Babcock’s decision was certainly a good one as Babcock has guided a young and talented Toronto roster to the playoffs (currently down 3-2 to Washington) while Tim Murray and Dan Bylsma find themselves on the unemployment line. This of course, is all interesting to look at in light of the recent developments. Simmons adds that Babcock initially preferred the Sabres’ roster to the Leafs–but ultimately chose the Leafs.
  • The New York Post’s Brett Cyrgalis reports that the Rangers plan on pushing back at the Canadiens crease crashing as they try to close out the Atlantic Division champs tonight. The Habs have put intense pressure on Rangers’ netminder Henrik Lundqvist in the paint, and the efforts should only intensify as Montreal faces elimination. The Rangers have elevated their physical play, namely defenseman Brendan Smith who fought Andrew Shaw Thursday night. But the Canadiens, for their part, are “excited” at the pressure facing them, and plan on focusing first on game six before looking too far ahead.

Snapshots: Krejci, Stevens, Stastny

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Boston’s David Krejci suffered an injury after a knee-on-knee collision with Ottawa’s Chris Wideman. He will not return to the game. There was no call on the ice, although the play easily could have drawn an infraction. The play can be viewed here. Krejci could not put much weight on his leg and looked pained as he left the ice. The Bruin had just returned from a previous, unrelated injury, and was slotted in as the 2nd line center between wingers Drew Stafford and David Backes. Krejci had tallied 54 points in the full 82 games this past season. His team is fighting to stave off elimination at the hands of the Senators, trailing 3-1 in the series. Regardless of the result of the game, there is the possibility for review for Wideman by the Department of Player Safety, especially in light of an equally scary Kadri-on-Ovechkin hit just minutes earlier in the other contest.

  • The Los Angeles Kings are reportedly close to an agreement to hire John Stevens as their new head coach. As noted by colleague Gavin Lee earlier this month, his son, captain of Northwestern (also John Stevens), has drawn interest from management. Stevens (the senior) started out his head coaching career with 6 seasons for the AHL’s Philadelphia Phantoms, culminating in a Calder Cup win in 2004-05 – a season which drew lots of interest due to the NHL lockout of that year. Stevens was promoted to head coach of the Philadelphia Flyers after the following season, serving until he was fired midway through the 2009-10 campaign. Following his firing, that Flyers team then went on to make the Finals after just barely making the post-season under Peter Laviolette. Stevens earned two Stanley Cup rings as assistant coach to Darryl Sutter during the Kings’ championship runs of 2012 and 2014, after his brief (4-game) stint as interim coach for the franchise. Stevens is known for his endearing “players’ coach” personality and rapport with developing younger players. He has an all-time record of 122-111-34 as a head NHL bench boss.
  • Help is apparently on the way for the St. Louis Blues, who still hold a commanding 3-1 lead in their series with the Minnesota Wild. Both Paul Stastny and Jori Lehtera look probable to return to competition in Game 5. Stastny has been out of action since he took a shot from a teammate off the foot a month ago. Lehtera has been out with an apparent illness since April 8th. Stastny potted 40 points in his limited 66 games this season, while Lehtera was less impressive with 22 in 64 games. Both centers will provide depth up the middle for St. Louis, and assistance on faceoffs. Considering how proficient Jake Allen has been so far these playoffs, their contributions on the defensive side of the puck will only make Minnesota’s offensive efforts even tougher. Both players posted average Corsi For just above the mid-line 50%, but each boasts a wealth of playoff experience that is difficult to replace this time of year. Stastny’s post-season consistency in particular should inspire confidence in his ability to contribute to his squad. Ivan Barbashev and Zach Sanford are expected to sit out.

*The original post had incorrectly cited Dennis Wideman as the offender*

Ovechkin Takes Hard Hit But Returns In Game 5

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Washington Capitals’ star winger Alex Ovechkin was upended in Game 5 of their series against Toronto by a Nazem Kadri hip check, who was called for tripping on the play. Ovechkin was escorted off the ice and could not put weight on his left leg. The hit can be viewed here, courtesy of NBC. He returned to the game for the second period.

Kadri attempted to lay a hip into Ovechkin as he carried the puck out of his defensive zone along the left board. Kadri succeeding in making contact with Ovechkin, but not before Ovechkin attempted to avoid the brunt of the impact by veering slightly right. The result was Ovechkin being twisted and flipped, in what looked to the officials in real time to be a knee-based trip. On the ensuing powerplay resulting from that penalty, the Capitals scored the opening goal. If the series hinges on such a call, the criticism from Toronto and Canada in general could be deafening. Notably, both Mike Milbury and Keith Jones called the hit legal during the intermission break for NBC.

Ovechkin, who is a notoriously tough, hard-nosed player, is no stranger to physicality. The winger has missed remarkably few  games over the course of his career – he only missed 4 contests in the last 3 seasons. His 33 goals in 2016-17 were his lowest total since 2013 – he had hit the 50-goal mark the previous three. However, coach Barry Trotz has consistently praised Ovechkin’s focus on defensive, all-around play this year, in hopes his change in style would lead to a championship run. Ovechkin has been one of the greatest playoff performers for a Washington team that has consistently struggled to find success in the post-season. His 44 goals in 88 games places him 16th all time in playoff goals per game, with the closest contemporary player on the list being Phil Kessel (at 20th). Considering his Capitals have never made it past the second-round during his career, this statistic is made even more impressive.

Ovechkin surprisingly returned to the game for the second period, in apparent game shape. His return was not anticipated by most analysts, and hockey fans everywhere exhaled a sigh of relief for the health of one of the game’s greatest players. His availability beyond this contest is unknown, but this is the time of year players will play through injuries.

Cap Problems Loom – A Look Ahead For Chicago

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The Chicago Blackhawks’ management will have to take a deep, long look in the mirror this off-season. Their core is locked up and in their primes. With an offense boasting Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, grizzled Marian Hossa, and a resurgent Artem Anisimov, there were many predictions around the league for Chicago to reclaim another cup. Instead, the comparatively deep lineup Nashville iced completely dominated Chicago, sending them packing in a 4 game sweep – the first ever time an “8th seed” has swept a “1 seed”.

This is an analysis of Chicago’s cap frustrations, and what has led to them.

Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane each account for $10.5 MM towards the team cap, and are both under contract until the 2022-23 season. With a cap ceiling that is expected to remain in the ballpark of its current $73 MM, this is a massive $21 MM, 28.8% of the team total. In past seasons, contributions from players on ELCs and cheap one-to-two year deals made this issue far less concerning. Success will do a lot to mask poor planning on management’s part.

Looking at their roster situation next year, the squad looks something like this (numbers represent $MM towards cap):

Nick Schmaltz (0.925) – Jonathan Toews (10.5) – Marian Hossa (5.275)

Artemi Panarin (6.0) – Artem Anisimov (4.550) – Patrick Kane (10.5)

Dennis Rasmussen (RFA) – Marcus Kruger (3.083) – Richard Panik (RFA)

Ryan Hartman (0.863) – Tanner Kero (0.750) – __________

*******

 

Nik Hjalmarsson (4.1) – Duncan Keith (5.538)

Brent Seabrook (6.875) – Trevor van Riemsdyk (0.825)

Michal Kempny (RFA) – Gustav Forsling (0.873)

************

Michal Roszival (0.650)

 

Corey Crawford (6.0)

_________

 

A few things to note: there are still 4 likely vacancies on this roster, and the team would probably prefer to have at least one more extra skater on hand for the season. Before the RFA contracts are negotiated, this comes to a total of $67.307 MM already spent. Brian Campbell and Johnny Oduya are not likely to return, considering the former’s price and the latter’s struggles. Roszival is not likely to be trusted with 7th defenseman duties. With Panik’s stellar season, he is nearly sure to command a sizable raise. The 26 year-old had what can only be described an incredibly over-achieving breakthrough – he notched 44 points, 22 of which were goals. The expectation should be that, even under team-friendly RFA negotiations, he will earn upwards of $2 MM, likely in the $2.5 MM range. Assuming the other two RFAs (Rasmussen and Kempny) receive somewhere around $1 MM each, this brings the grand total to $71.807 MM with at least 3 slots to fill, probably 4.

From here, Chicago could go one of two routes. They could try to fill out the remaining spots with the absolutely cheapest possible players, and hope they strike gold with another prospect or free agent. They went down this road last year, and one could reasonably assume they may not have liked the results. The other option would be to move a sizable contract out in the name of increased depth. A few options would be Seabrook or Hjalmarrson on the back-end, or perhaps Hossa up front. Although the captain’s relative cost efficiency is arguably not good, I don’t see a scenario where the Windy City management would be willing to move on from Toews. Anisimov’s play and chemistry with Kane at a cheap 2C price-tag make him unlikely to be moved, and Kruger was just signed to a cost-efficient deal.

It should be noted that if Chicago would be (for whatever reason) unable to move a contract, they could opt to leave a player unprotected for Vegas to take. This is not a likely scenario, however. Many believe that van Riemsdyk will be left unprotected, but exposing such a cheap and effective youngster seems counter-productive at this point. The problem with ditching Seabrook or Hjalmarrson is that it opens up a huge hole that is not likely to be filled much cheaper – top 4 defensemen don’t come cheap, especially considering this year’s limited UFA class. Hossa, it should be noted, has a No Movement Clause, which would severely complicate any sort of transaction involving the veteran winger.

Decisions lie aheaad for Chicago management, and the decisions may be even tougher than they were after their Cup win in 2010. That off-season, they were forced into moving Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, and Kris Versteeg. Those tough decisions laid the groundwork for their next two titles. This is the cost of success in the post-cap era, and Chicago will again need to make sacrifices if they wish to see any more.

Predator Power: The Potential Upset That Should Shock No One

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Just yesterday, I wrote an article describing the ability of the Wild to come back in their series down 0-2. No one should doubt that the Blackhawks are entirely capable of achieving the same against the Predators. The question is whether they will.

The Predators were perhaps the most overlooked team this post-season, with nearly all analysts picking the Blackhawks to take the series rather easily. This is particularly odd because offensively, the teams were practically indistinguishable (at 2.43 GF60 and 2.42 GF60 respectively). At 5 on 5, the Predators only scored 5 less goals all season long. Down the home stretch of the season, the Predators won their last 4 while the Blackhawks went winless. Although both teams have had an increase in overall offense compared to last season, Nashville had less of a drastic up-hike, suggesting less deviation from the expected output. The Predators are also far less top heavy than the Hawks – their scoring is more evenly stretched out across their lineup and not concentrated around four particular players. The Hawks’ fourth line is noteworthy in how uninspiring it is –  Jordin Tootoo and John Hayden usually average 8 and 11 minutes a piece. Finally, Pekka Rinne had a historically bad season by his standards in 2015-16 (in which the Predators took the Western Conference champs to a Game 7) – but he has returned to form in a big way this season, with a respectable (if unremarkable) .918 save percentage.

Then there’s the defense – the Blackhawks have shown signs of weakness. Duncan Keith had a solid showing, but not his Norris standard. His Corsi For was his worst since his rookie season at 50.7%  – he has trended around 54%. Niklas Hjalmarsson and Brent Seabrook have also had down seasons, Seabrook at 50%, and Hjalmarsson at 45%. After these three defenders there is a massive gap in talent. Part of the reason that these top three are having a difficult time is because they have had to log massive amounts of minutes against top players. Both Johnny Oduya and Brian Campbell have struggled to log the minutes of years past, and both have faced lower quality of competition. Each has averaged around 18 minutes of ice and it doesn’t seem like Joel Quenneville is particularly confident in putting them out there in all situations these playoffs. Trevor van Reimsdyk has performed admirably in his role, but has yet to be a positive player in a post-season year.  Even against Keith, the speed of the Predators’ forwards has created fits and frantic backpedaling. With how dominant Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and crew have looked, it is more than fair to draw comparisons.

Ultimately, the Blackhawks need to score in order to advance. Peter Laviolette has the Predators rolling as a fine-tuned forecheck machine, and Chicago seems to have been shell-shocked. Their zone time in the most recent game was frankly horrible. The 5-0 obliteration was a natural continuation of the frustrated offense the Hawks experienced in the first game, and it seems apparent that whatever game-planning occurred between the two matches fell far short of the mark. Shots were constantly blocked by the Preds and the ones that got through were not dangerous. The amount of hype that preceded Chicago headed into these playoffs was largely unwarranted – they didn’t dominate any advanced stat and only won the division by a slight margin, while their top players looked far less dynamic than the previous year. But let us not discount the effort and depth of the Predators. On paper, this isn’t a roster that is star-studded or wonderfully exciting, but they have been constructed well for playoff hockey and now have the experience to close a series. Their third line has performed well above expectations and their top guns are firing away. Underestimating this squad would be a deadly error for any team, no matter how many cups they’ve won in years past.

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