Metro Division Snapshots: Capitals, Darling, McLeod
Big changes are expected this summer in D.C. after the Washington Capitals once again failed to advance beyond the second round of the postseason, despite boasting perhaps the most talented roster ever assembled in the organization’s 42-year history. Even if GM Brian MacLellan wanted to return the roster mostly intact, he would have a difficult time doing so given the team’s salary cap situation. It’s along this vein that Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post examines potential free agent and trade fits to replace the players the Capitals may lose off their President’s Trophy winning roster.
T.J. Oshie, coming off a career high 33-goal season, will be a UFA this summer and while the Capitals would like to re-sign the winger, doing so may prove hard to do, according to Khurshudyan. The scribe writes that Oshie is due for a significant raise on his $4.5MM 2016-17 cap charge, and suggests a long-term deal in the $6MM annual range is reasonable. Khurshudyan notes that both Kyle Okposo and David Backes, two players with similar profiles and historical production to Oshie, inked free agent deals with cap hits of $6MM last summer. If that should prove to be too rich for MacLellan’s blood, the team could pivot back to Justin Williams, who is coming off a two-year deal with the Capitals worth $3.25MM per year. Andre Burakovsky, a RFA, is expected to graduate to a full-time top-six role and the duo of Williams and Burakovsky could be good enough for Washington to get by. In terms of outside free agents Khurshudyan lists Drew Stafford and Patrick Eaves as potentially inexpensive fits, though at 31 and 33 respectively, each is on the back-half of their careers and would represent a risky proposition. As it is, Stafford netted just eight goals in 58 games in 2016-17. Eaves notched a career high 32 goals, besting his previous best by 12 and suggesting heavy regression is likely.
On the blue line, both Karl Alzner and trade deadline pickup Kevin Shattenkirk will head to free agency. Khurshudyan expects both to depart for greener pastures and speculates that Nate Schmidt will likely assume a role next to John Carlson on the team’s top pair next season. That leaves a hole on the third pairing with Brooks Orpik. Internal candidates, according to the scribe, include Taylor Chorney along with prospects Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos. The free agent market is thin at the position, though veteran defender Johnny Oduya could represent one option, according to the author.
On the trade front, Khurshudyan mentions recent reports that Minnesota would be willing to listen to offers for RW Nino Niederreiter, a pending RFA. Coming off a 25-goal season with the Wild, Niederreiter would certainly command a sizable return in any trade, but he would satisfy Washington’s need for a top-six forward and is young enough to fill that role for years to come. Additionally, given the restrictive nature of the expansion draft rules, both the Wild and Anaheim may have to leave a talented young blue liner exposed and could elect to make a trade to secure some value in return. While that may provide Washington with another means with which to add a needed defenseman, many teams in the league will be shopping in the same market and likely have more to offer in return than the Capitals.
Elsewhere in the Metro Division:
- Scott Darling‘s move to Carolina, where it is expected he will be given every chance to be the team’s #1 goalie, is viewed as the 28-year-old netminder’s biggest opportunity at the professional level. For his part, however, Darling sees it as just the next step in a pro career chock full of opportunities, writes Luke DeCock of The News & Observer. As DeCock notes, Darling has already overcome a drinking problem which nearly sunk his career before it ever even got started, and has worked his way up the pro ranks all the way from the SPHL up to where he is today; the presumptive starter for a young Carolina team hoping to contend for a playoff spot next season. It’s been a lengthy process for Darling but his approach finally appears to be paying off. “It’s kind of been my thing to just saw the wood in front of you, and just keep working toward the next step.” The “wood” in front of him is the high expectations that he will have to shoulder as the new #1 goalie for a team whose recent chances to compete in the postseason have been derailed by poor to mediocre play between the pipes. But given his history, Darling appears well-suited for the challenges that await in Carolina.
- The New Jersey Devils have high expectations for their 2016 first round draft selection, center Michael McLeod, a skilled offensive talent who starred for Mississauga of the OHL. Chris Ryan of NJ Advance Media spoke with Paul Castron, the team’s Director of Amateur Scouting, about McLeod’s progress one year after the team made the 6-foot-2, 194-pound pivot the 12th overall pick in the draft. After impressing team brass at the Devils developmental and training camps last summer, McLeod struggled during the first couple of months of the OHL season, writes Ryan, though Castron is still high on the prospect: “He’s one of those players where he never lets you down with his work ethic and his speed game is always there, he’s always a factor. I think he was just frustrated early in the season for not producing at a higher rate. The team as a whole really struggled, and I think he felt a lot of pressure because he was captain, too, and he was their leader.” McLeod would get his game going in the second half of the season, notes Ryan, amassing 46 points over his final 31 contests and leading his team to the OHL Final, recording an impressive 27 points in 20 postseason games along the way. With New Jersey in the midst of an all out rebuild, one buoyed by winning the rights to the first overall choice in the 2017 draft in the NHL’s recent lottery, McLeod’s development will be important to the future success of the organization. It’s possible given the team’s dearth of offensive talent that McLeod could open the year in New Jersey with a strong training camp performance.
Golden Knights Notes: Expansion Draft Targets, Gallant, Yakupov
The NHL purposefully designed the rules regarding the expansion draft to give the league’s newest member the best possible chance to compete right away. Teams have two options in terms of whom to protect from their current roster: they can either choose to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie or they can go the alternate route of eight skaters and one goalie. Any player with two seasons or less of experience playing professional hockey in North America are exempt. Undoubtedly, many teams will confront some tough choices when it comes to whom they potentially lose to the Golden Knights later next month.
Rob Vollman, writing for ESPN.com, examines who among the four Stanley Cup semi-finalists Vegas GM George McPhee is most likely going to garner significant interest from the veteran hockey executive. From the reigning champion Penguins, Vollman suggests that unless the club can convince Marc-Andre Fleury to waive his NMC and subsequently trade him to another club looking for a #1 between the pipes, one of Pittsburgh’s goaltenders would be the best choice for McPhee and the Golden Knights. However, should the Penguins proactively move one of their ‘tenders – almost assuredly Fleury – prior to the expansion draft, Vollman suggests blue liner Brian Dumoulin as the best choice given his penalty killing prowess and ability to play solid defensively.
According to the scribe, Anaheim, barring some shifty maneuvering, may risk losing Josh Manson or Jakob Silfverberg to their new division rivals. Manson, as a right-hand defenseman who can move the puck and plays with bite, would be an excellent addition for Vegas.
Because of their defensive depth, Nashville will likely choose to protect eight skaters, with four being blue liners. This means the Golden Knights will probably have their pick from a group which includes forwards Calle Jarnkrok, Craig Smith and Colin Wilson. Ultimately, Vollman thinks Jarnkrok would be the sensible choice given his affordable cap hit ($2MM annually through 2021-22) and his strong two-way play.
Given the lack of proven goal scorers likely to be available to McPhee in the expansion draft, Vollman wonders whether Vegas could be convinced to take the onerous contract of Bobby Ryan off of Ottawa’s hands. Ryan, who has five years – at which point the winger will be 35 – and an annual cap charge of $7.25MM, has struggled since joining Ottawa four years ago and finished with just 13 goals in 62 contests this past season. However, he has played better in the playoffs recording five markers and 14 points in 16 games. Vollman doubts McPhee would take that hefty contract on without the Senators offering them further incentive to do so but also notes the $7.25MM price tag would make it much easier to reach their targeted floor of $43.8MM in salaries. And at 30, there is hope Ryan can provide at least a few seasons of solid offensive production for a club who will likely struggle to put the puck in the net.
In other Golden Knights news:
- The Golden Knights have done well in hiring veteran coach Gerard Gallant to be the franchise’s first bench boss, at least if some of his former charges and current contemporaries are correct. NHL.com’s Brian Hedger penned an article on Gallant, who is currently an assistant with Canada’s entry in the 2017 IIHF World Championship, which included quotes from Michael Matheson and Nick Bjugstad, who each played for Gallant in Florida. Matheson, a young defenseman who rejoined Gallant on Team Canada for this tournament, said: “He’s a tremendous coach and I loved my time with him. He just gives his players a lot of confidence. He realizes that you’re going to make mistakes but that it’s not the end of the world. He’s just going to put you back onto the ice because he has confidence in you.” For his part, Bjugstad said: “He’s one of my favorite coaches ever,” and indicated he was well-liked in the room in Florida. “Everyone respected him. He had a young team with us, and it didn’t take him long to kind of push us to that next level, the next step. There’s no reason he can’t do it with the next team.” Tampa Bay head coach Jon Cooper also offered up strong praise for Gallant: “I think it’s a great get for Las Vegas. I got to meet Gerard at the [World Cup of Hockey 2016], and that’s a big reason he’s here with us today. He’s extremely knowledgeable about the game, the guys play hard for him and I think he’ll do a [great] job in Vegas.” Gallant’s ability to help develop young players and earn the respect from his charges should do him well in his new position. While the Golden Knights will have access to quality NHL talent via the expansion draft, the organization will still likely rely on building with youth through the draft and it may be a few seasons before they are ready to compete regularly for the postseason.
- With the probable lack of proven goal scorers available to Vegas in the expansion draft, the club will likely look for other ways to add offensive talent to the organization. The Golden Knights have already inked free agent center Vadim Shipachyov, a skilled Russian who was expected to draw significant interest from several NHL clubs this summer. He may well slot in as the team’s #1 center to begin the season. But, as talented as Shipachyov might be, he is more of a playmaker than a goal scorer and Vegas will have to add more talent around their new #1 pivot. Luke Fox of Sportsnet suggests that former top overall draft pick Nail Yakupov is just the sort of player Vegas should take a chance on as they search for impact offensive talent. Yakupov, who suffered through the worst season of his career with St. Louis in 2016-17, scoring just nine points in 40 games, has said he has no desire to return home and play in the KHL. Fox believes the 23-year-old winger is worth a short-term, small money deal for Vegas, or for another team starved for cheap offense, perhaps L.A. Signing Yakupov would certainly make a lot of sense for Vegas. The presence of Shipachyov could help ease Yakupov’s adjustment to the desert and provide the talented winger with the type of setup man that could help him thrive.
Atlantic Notes: Blashill, Accurate Ottawa Attendance Figures
With the United States being bounced from the World Championships following a 2-0 loss to Finland, head coach Jeff Blashill was “bitterly disappointed.” Blashill and the United States had won six consecutive games before bowing out of the quarterfinals. Finland played a tight defensive game, bottling up the American attack and sending the US team home in jarring fashion.
To Detroit Red Wings fans, it may not seem like the most shocking of results. Red Wings blog Winging It In Motown released their season grade for Blashill and it wasn’t exactly glowing. Blashill received failing grades in game management and player deployment which lowered his marks to an overall of an F, but more interesting is the caveat at the end, indicating that Blashill’s coaching at the Worlds shows a coach capable of “handling young teams,” which seems to put some of the onus back on general manager Ken Holland’s team building. Regardless, the heat has to be on Blashill as he enters year three in Detroit.
- The Ottawa Citizen’s Don Brennan believes that the lack of support at Senators’ games are a myth. Citing attendance figures, Brennan points to only the first game of its second round series against New York where fans didn’t fill the arena. The other six playoff games saw capacity crowds, and Brennan writes that it’s the listing of 19,209, which used to be the sellout figure for Canadian Tire Center, prior to renovations. While he admits that the figure for the aforementioned game was 16,744, the average attendance has been 18,522, which is just 50 seats short of the new sellout figure of 18,572. Several players Brennan spoke with spoke of how loud the building has been, calling it the “loudest” they’ve heard it.
The Final Four’s ‘Black Aces’
During the regular season, NHL teams are limited to having 23 players on their roster (barring injuries). Once the playoffs start, those restrictions cease to exist.
‘Black Aces’ are players who are on their team’s roster, but aren’t in the lineup. Here’s a look at the current list of ‘Black Aces’:
Anaheim Ducks
D Kevin Bieksa (lower-body injury sustained in Game 1 vs Edmonton)
C Sam Carrick (healthy scratch)
D Simon Despres (has not played since October with concussion issues)
R Patrick Eaves (lower-body injury sustained in Game 3 vs Edmonton)
G Jhonas Enroth (health scratch)
D Korbinian Holzer (healthy scratch)
R Nic Kerdiles (healthy scratch)
R Logan Shaw (lower-body injury sustained in Game 5 vs Edmonton)
D Clayton Stoner (health scratch after being injured for six months)
Nashville Predators
D Anthony Bitetto (healthy scratch)
L Kevin Fiala (out for season with broken femur sustained in Game 1 vs St. Louis)
C Vernon Fiddler (healthy scratch)
D Petter Granberg (health scratch)
D Brad Hunt (healthy scratch)
R P.A. Parenteau (healthy scratch)
C Colton Sissons (healthy scratch)
Ottawa Senators
D Mark Borowiecki (lower-body injury)
C Chris DiDomenico (healthy scratch)
D Andreas Englund (healthy scratch)
G Andrew Hammond (healthy scratch)
D Ben Harpur (healthy scratch)
D Jyrki Jokipakka (healthy scratch)
L Chris Kelly (healthy scratch)
R Chris Neil (healthy scratch)
G Matt O’Connor (healthy scratch)
L Viktor Stalberg (lower-body injury sustained in Game 1 vs Pittsburgh)
C Colin White (healthy scratch)
Pittsburgh Penguins
R Josh Archibald (healthy scratch)
D Trevor Daley (lower-body injury)
R Patric Hornqvist (day-t0-day with upper-body injury)
G Tristan Jarry (healthy scratch)
D Kris Letang (done for season after undergoing neck surgery)
D Justin Schultz (day-t0-day with upper-body injury)
D Mark Streit (healthy scratch)
C Oskar Sundqvist (healthy scratch)
R Bryan Rust (day-t0-day with upper-body injury)
World Championships Update: Shipachyov, Da Costa, Lundqvist
As always, international play is a time for players to shine. While plenty of NHL regulars (Johnny Gaudreau, Artemi Panarin) are lighting the lamp quite easily, there are a few names that should be interesting General Managers out there. Prospects and lesser knowns have a chance to really prove they can be difference makers at the top tier of hockey.
- Although no longer technically considered a prospect, offensive dynamo Vadim Shipachyov is looking like a brilliant pickup for the Vegas Golden Knights. Through 5 games he has already accumulated 10 points (2 G, 8 A) and is driving possession for his Russian squad. His skill with the puck on his stick and his vision to find teammates through traffic has been mightily impressive. He may be slotted down the lineup as Capital Evgeny Kuznetsov joins the fray, but he still has a reasonable shot at tournament MVP if he keeps this work up.
- France’s Stephane da Costa has been nothing short of incredible for the home team, currently tied for the tournament lead in goals (6) and third in points (9). Da Costa is 27 years-old and went to play in the KHL following his up-and-down experience with Ottawa. He played 47 games for the Senators over 4 seasons but spent the majority of his time in the AHL’s Binghamton. Da Costa has played shortened seasons for the CSKA Moscow over the past three years, but has not entirely fallen off the radar of North American teams. He was even rumored to be linked to the Golden Knights in February by Dans les Coulisses journalist Max Truman, although there has been nothing since. This sort of performance could put him back in teams’ considerations.
- Swedish goalie (and New York Ranger cornerstone) Henrik Lundqvist survived a scary hit to the head when an opposing Danish player crashed his crease at full speed. He eventually got up and continued to play in the game. Trainers say he is all right. His injury would be huge, both for the Swedish national team’s chances, and the Rangers franchise. Although he’s just turned 35 and is signed for four more seasons on an outrageously expensive contract, Lundqvist is still a top goaltender at the NHL level. The clip can be viewed here.
Nashville And The Win-Win Trade
In these playoffs, there are quite a few players who are making their former teams look silly for ever moving on from them. Phil Kessel is one such example, Kyle Turris is another. There are also skaters who have been fantastic for their teams but the sight of whom doesn’t instill hatred in former team’s fans. Arizona faithful surely grimace every time Turris touches the pucks and drives up ice, but James Neal is still loved and adored by Pittsburgh fans. The primary reason being that the Penguins aren’t regretful. Neal was involved in a very important and team-altering trade that ended up benefited the Predators as much as it did the Penguins.
Rewind the clock to the 2014 Draft. The Penguins have just been eliminated for the 5th straight postseason in disappointing fashion. The aging Jim Rutherford is brought in to right a ship that looks destined to take on more water. The Predators had completely missed the playoffs, tallying only 38 wins and relying upon a totally inept and anemic offense. Shea Weber had led the team in points on D and they had recently lost Ryan Suter to free agency, and after Hornqvist, Craig Smith, and Mike Fisher, there was practically nothing to push the pace offensively. Carter Hutton had to take the crease in the wake of Pekka Rinne having injury trouble and poor performance. Both teams needed a desperate shake up, and it wouldn’t come painlessly for either. GM David Poile spent the time with Rutherford to hammer out a deal that contained a fair bit of risk on both sides.
The ultimate deal resulted in the 61-point getting, former 40-goal scoring James Neal traded to Nashville for their leading scorer in Patrick Hornqvist, Nick Spaling, and a 2nd-round pick. Nashville lost two solid players on a defensive oriented team in hopes of shifting focus to a more offensive game. Pittsburgh isolated net-front presence and physicality as pieces they were lacking come playoff time. Both teams ended up reveling in the results of this gambit, but it is the sort of deal we see little of in today’s NHL – a win-win trade.
A recent example of an attempted high-risk win-win trade would be Shea Weber for P.K. Subban. One could make the case that GM Marc Bergevin was following a valid needs-based brand of logic, but for many reasons the move was short-sighted for the Canadiens. Montreal fans can claim hindsight, but Weber was always going to be due for decline and was arguably already lesser in value. Without delving further into that particular transaction, Nashville again made a prudent (but difficult) decision to move their captain, which paid dividends. Subban will be an integral part of their franchise for years.
Many teams are overly rigid in sticking to their core when it is obviously in need of change. Nashville not only shifted their core in a few short years, but adapted on the fly to a changing game. Poile acquired the necessary personnel to go deeper into the playoffs in an exceptionally talented Central division, and all GMs would be wise to look to his example. The blueprint for a win-win trade is to isolate what your team desperately needs, who can fill that need, and being willing to part with important players to acquire your man. Winning the value comparison on paper isn’t what should truly matter to GMs, Taking risks to make weaknesses strengths will never be a safe or easy move, but it is the sort of mentality that can win a franchise a Stanley Cup. This offseason, perhaps there will be more moves of this ilk.
AHL Updates: West Finals, Gulls, Subban
With a win over the San Diego Gulls, the San Jose Barracuda move on to face the Grand Rapids Griffins in the Western final of the Calder Cup Playoffs. Right wingers Ryan Carpenter (25) and Barclay Goodrow (23) have led the Barricuda in scoring, while the Griffins have relied upon Tyler Bertuzzi (22) and rookie Evgeny Svechnikov (19). In the East, the Providence Bruins are tied with the Hershey Bears, and the Syracuse Crunch lead the Toronto Marlies 3-2. This is the first time a San Jose affiliate has gone to the conference finals since 1998, and is a sign of good things to come for their organization. The other teams have consistently been in the mix the last half decade, as they have been supported well by their parent clubs. The Griffins’ success in particular is inspiring for a Detroit Red Wings team that missed the playoffs for the first time in 25 years.
- San Diego Gulls players Sam Carrick and Nic Kerdiles both have assumed roles as black aces for the Anaheim Ducks. Either could easily see time in the event of further injuries. Carrick is a 4th-line energy player who would do best in limited minutes, while Kerdiles has shown flashes of being a future 3rd-line shutdown player. Kerdiles has already played two games in the playoffs for Anaheim, posting no points but not committing any grievous mistakes. He could be a part of their bottom six for years to come, and this playoff experience will only do him well. The former 2nd-rounder is already 23, but has shown positive improvement and growth.
- Malcolm Subban of the Providence Bruins is hoping to prove himself for the Boston franchise, according to the Boston Globe. The highly touted younger brother of P.K. Subban, the first-round goaltender has struggled mightily since hitting the pros. He has only played parts of two games for the NHL affiliate, being pulled in both. At 23 years of age, however, he has lots of time to cement himself and refine his game in net. Goaltenders are generally given more time to work through issues and it takes a while for one to truly be considered a bust. Subban was a rock in junior for the Belleville Bulls, posting a .934 save percentage in his final season there. His .917 save percentage this season in Providence, however, is not likely to catch many eyes in the organization. He also remains backup to Zane McIntyre in the P-Bruins current run, and McIntyre’s 2.02 GAA and .929 playoff save percentage is good enough to keep him in the starting role.
Afternoon Notes: Chicago, St. Louis, Pittsburgh
Chicago GM Stan Bowman insists that his firing of assistant coach Mike Kitchen was not a “warning shot” toward head coach Joel Quenneville. He emphasized their strong relationship as GM and coach and will involve Quenneville in the hiring process for insight. Quenneville certainly has a longer leash than most coaches, as he has almost assuredly earned himself in the Hockey Hall of Fame for his 3 championships with the Blackhawks in under a decade. Quenneville was reportedly taken aback by the firing, and there was speculation he was irritated by the move. Bowman will have a difficult task ahead if he hopes to alter his roster in any meaningful way. As noted earlier, their cap situation is incredibly tight.
Whether Quenneville would survive another early playoff exit at this juncture is pure conjecture. After two consecutive disappointments, if the Hawks start off slow, Coach Q could find himself on the hot seat. Bowman has shown in the past that he is quick to change what isn’t working, even if it means moving away from comfort zones.
- The St. Louis Blues are also dealing with the aftermath of an underwhelming playoff run, report the St. Louis Dispatch. The overhaul last summer didn’t result in the success they were anticipating. Jake Allen was perhaps the lone bright spot in a team performance that saw them be dominated by the lower-seeded Nashville Predators. 20 of their players are under contract for next season, and RFA Colton Parayko is the only expiring contract that will draw major focus from management. GM Doug Armstrong is looking desperately for a bonafide top-six center with the cupboards bare in the prospect department at that position. Re-signing Vladimir Sobotka helps this position, and if Ivan Barbashev could take a step forward it would go a long way. Ultimately, the team is still in a position to compete next season, but will need to fine tune their strategies going forward. A solid draft or trading for a top-tier prospect should be the focus this summer.
- Penguins fans are currently dealing with a scare, as Patric Hornqvist is not skating with the group on his off-day. The tough winger has been banged and bruised throughout the season and playoffs, the most visible being the swollen mark under his eye from a skate to the face. Whether this is merely a maintenance day or something more long-term is something that remains to be seen, but his loss would be substantial in a tight-checking series. The also ailing Carl Hagelin took his spot in line rushes this afternoon, slotting in alongside Nick Bonino and Conor Sheary on the third unit. Notably, Carter Rowney also did not skate. He had been inserted in Game 7 of the previous series and performed admirably, helping earn his 4th line multiple shifts at the end of Game 1. His surprising speed along with his physicality have gone a long way toward earning him a 4th-line center position next season with the club. Trevor Daley is supposedly still progressing, but did not take the ice with the team. Considering how many injuries the Penguins are already dealing with, every new bit of bad news is magnified. UPDATE: Hornqvist and Rowney took “maintenance days” while Daley apparently did take the ice on his own.
Florida Panthers’ Potential Targets
The Florida Panthers were expected to do far better this past season than they ultimately did. Not unlike their Floridian rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, many were looking to this franchise to dominate a week Atlantic division. Looking back on a season with a coaching change, losing streaks, an lots of turmoil, how does the team recover and adjust their roster going forward?
Florida’s offensive core as of this moment consists of Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Vincent Trocheck, with Nick Bjugstad, Reilly Smith, and the surprising Jonathan Marchessault feeling content in their roles. Their defensive core is essentially just Aaron Ekblad, with a decent if unremarkable group surrounding him. Keith Yandle has looked adequate but nowhere near worth his $6.35 MM contract, locked in until 2023. Unfortunately, that contract looks like an albatross that is there to stay. Jason Demers was solid if unremarkable, and the group as a whole struggled with consistency. With Thomas Vanek likely to look for a payday elsewhere, a declining Jaromir Jagr, and a brutal internal cap, it bodes questioning whether Florida will be able to compete for a playoff spot next season. Their youngsters performed above offensive expectations, with the notable exception of Huberdeau. Barkov, Trocheck, and Marchessault all broke 50 points. Yet the team still finished 14 points out of the playoffs, giving up .46 more goals than they scored in an average 60 minute game.
Florida needs to spend a moderate amount of money to acquire solid 3rd-line point producers. Minor league callups can fill the gaps on the fourth line to an extent, but rolling with only two viable offensive forward groups is a recipe for disaster in today’s NHL. They absolutely need a game-changer up front to provide run support for the young core. They might also look to bolster their D. Here are some potential targets the Panthers should consider for 2017-18, instead of spending precious dollars on the fading Jagr:
F – Ilya Kovalchuk – UFA/KHL
As mentioned by colleague Holger Stolzenberg, Ilya Kovalchuk is a definite possibility for Florida. They have the cap space to accomodate the sort of money he will be looking for, and they have a talented young group that could easily compete for a playoff run given the right moves. There are few players more dynamic with the puck on their stick than Kovalchuk. His savvy and remarkably consistent point production would be tailor made for the Panthers team in need of a true #1 threat as Barkov continues to progress. Jagr is that no longer, but replacing his insight and experience would be difficult to do. Kovalchuk hits all the checks in terms of need for Florida, and would help launch them back into the playoff conversation single-handedly.
D – Dmitry Kulikov – UFA
Kulikov had an absolutely awful season for the Buffalo Sabres, but he would be a very cheap reclamation project for his old stomping ground. He didn’t exit the Panthers with a good performance, either, posting only 17 points in 2015-16 and a terrible 46.8 Corsi For Percentage. Kulikov had one year remaining with the Sabres at $4.3 MMl, and posted a 5 points and a -26 through 47 games. And yet, he was part of the group that propelled the team into the post-season and a Game 7 that could’ve gone either way. He’s a smooth skating 26 year-old defenseman who moves the puck with a decent offensive hockey IQ. He makes mistakes in his own zone, but he pushed the pace of the game in a way that is difficult to replace. His contract would be dirt-cheap and there is always the possibility he finds his groove back in the Sunshine State.
F – Matt Duchene – Colorado Avalanche
Matt Duchene is another talented player who had a truly down year. Duchene was rumored to be moved for months, but come deadline, GM Joe Sakic didn’t find the pieces he was looking for. In Florida, there is a definite fit if the Panthers are willing to take the risk. They have the defensive pieces the Avalanche would want in return, and Duchene would provide another dynamic offensive force to a struggling offense. Sakic is almost certain to pull the trigger eventually, so the Panthers GM will simply need to be persistent. Duchene can set up plays with the best of them when he is on his game. His speed and infectious energy would also fit in well with the group of youngsters down south.
F – Justin WIlliams – UFA
WIlliams is almost certain to be a top commodity in a weak UFA class. However, his wealth of playoff experience would come in quite handy for this team and hasn’t showed signs of slowing down. He would add an element of grit to the lineup, as well, rounding out their offense. He would be a wonderful mentor for the likes of Barkov, Trochec, and oothers. He can slot up and down the roster and is practically a lock to score at least 20 goals as a 35 year-old. If the Panthers find their way into the first round, a player of his mold would be certainly welcome in close contests. The main obstacle to this getting done is of course the price, which may prove too steep for a team in rebuild, low-cost mode. He also could want term at this stage of his playing career, and that could be a risky proposal if longer than 2 or 3 years.
Potential Buyout Options
NHL fans are looking ahead to an offseason which will likely see a lot of movement, but will also feature teams tight up against a stagnant cap ceiling. Buyouts are always an option teams will weigh, although certainly an avenue of last resort. Dumping a contract isn’t as simple as taking the player’s salary off the books. They will count as 1/3 or 2/3 of the original cap hit, for twice the remaining years on that contract. So if a 26 year old player has two years remaining at $3 MM, he will cost $1 MM for four years against the team’s cap total. That means a substantial savings of $2 MM, but is a habit GMs will not want to fall into. For players over 26, the 2/3 rule applies, and that same player would count for $2 MM each of the next four seasons. In such a scenario, the savings are rarely worth it. However, teams can be backed into this corner when trade options completely vanish.
For the 2017 offseason, there is an extra component at play – the expansion draft. Players with full No-Movement Clauses must be protected by their team, exposing potentially better, younger, cheaper options to selection by the Vegas Golden Knights. Prior to the expansion draft, on June 15-17th, there will be a buyout window. Consequently, there will most likely be at least one case where a player who otherwise would not have been bought out will be due to a team’s long-term prospects. This certainly isn’t what the NHLPA had hoped for when they agreed to another 20+ players in the league with the expansion of Vegas, but is an unfortunate unforeseen consequence. Here are just some of the players who could be facing the buyout option this summer:
Antti Niemi – Dallas Stars
Both Niemi and fellow goalie Kari Lehtonen should be expecting this fate. With Ben Bishop signing a massive six-year contract with Dallas, their time as starters in this league look all but complete. Both are paid an asburd amount of money, but Niemi’s $4.5 MM is the more unpalatable total. His .892 save percentage through 37 games this year was only edged in ineptitude by Michal Neuvirth among tenders who got more than 15 starts. At his pricetag he is virtually unmoveable, and with only one year remaining on his contract, the hit would be worth it for 2 seasons to keep him away from the team.
Kevin Bieksa – Anaheim Ducks
Bieksa might seem an odd inclusion on this list, considering his age, but it should be remembered that he has a No-Movement Clause, meaning he would need to be protected by the Ducks. Needing to also protect Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, and Hampus Lindholm, even under the 8 player protection model, this would likely expose Josh Manson. Considering his play in this post-season, and Bieksa’s complete inability to remain healthy, this is a darkhorse candidate for a last-minute buyout. Bieksa’s Corsi is the worst on the backend for his team and his skating has looked quite problematic of late. The flare of his Vancouver days seems long past and with only one year remaining at $4 MM, he seems an easy target to eliminate.
Scott Hartnell – Columbus Blue Jackets
Hartnell is considered a gutsy character player, a net-front presence, and a veteran leader. However, he has seen his production shift from being that of a decent offensive threat (28 G, 32 A in 2014-15) to an average third liner (13 goals, 24 A in 2016-17). His problems run deeper, though, as his brand of physical hockey has taken its toll on his play. No longer quite the intimidating wrecking-ball of his Philadelphia days, Hartnell is not as effective on the forecheck as he once was. The reason he is included on this list, however, is because Columbus has a lot of young, promising players they will wish to protect in the expansion draft, and Hartnell has a No-Movement Clause. At 34 years old and in a quickly diminishing role, it will be difficult for GM Jarmo Kekalainen to save a space for Hartnell. With toughness adequately filled by hard-nosed forwards in Brandon Dubinsky, Boone Jenner, Nick Foligno, and Brandon Saad, he seems even more superfluous. Assuming Dubinsky (NMC), Brandon Saad, Jenner, Foligno (NMC), Cam Atkinson, and Matt Calvert are protected, Hartnell’s inclusion would sacrifice the 24 year-old William Karlsson. That’s a difficult concession for the Jackets to make, even if the youngster took a step back offensively this season. If they would opt to buy out Hartnell’s contract at $4.75 MM, it would mean $3.16 MM in dead space for 4 more seasons, a hefty pill to swallow.
There are certain to be other candidates for buyouts as well, but these are three that could easily find themselves looking for a new contract come June 18th.