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Ovechkin Takes Hard Hit But Returns In Game 5

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Washington Capitals’ star winger Alex Ovechkin was upended in Game 5 of their series against Toronto by a Nazem Kadri hip check, who was called for tripping on the play. Ovechkin was escorted off the ice and could not put weight on his left leg. The hit can be viewed here, courtesy of NBC. He returned to the game for the second period.

Kadri attempted to lay a hip into Ovechkin as he carried the puck out of his defensive zone along the left board. Kadri succeeding in making contact with Ovechkin, but not before Ovechkin attempted to avoid the brunt of the impact by veering slightly right. The result was Ovechkin being twisted and flipped, in what looked to the officials in real time to be a knee-based trip. On the ensuing powerplay resulting from that penalty, the Capitals scored the opening goal. If the series hinges on such a call, the criticism from Toronto and Canada in general could be deafening. Notably, both Mike Milbury and Keith Jones called the hit legal during the intermission break for NBC.

Ovechkin, who is a notoriously tough, hard-nosed player, is no stranger to physicality. The winger has missed remarkably few  games over the course of his career – he only missed 4 contests in the last 3 seasons. His 33 goals in 2016-17 were his lowest total since 2013 – he had hit the 50-goal mark the previous three. However, coach Barry Trotz has consistently praised Ovechkin’s focus on defensive, all-around play this year, in hopes his change in style would lead to a championship run. Ovechkin has been one of the greatest playoff performers for a Washington team that has consistently struggled to find success in the post-season. His 44 goals in 88 games places him 16th all time in playoff goals per game, with the closest contemporary player on the list being Phil Kessel (at 20th). Considering his Capitals have never made it past the second-round during his career, this statistic is made even more impressive.

Ovechkin surprisingly returned to the game for the second period, in apparent game shape. His return was not anticipated by most analysts, and hockey fans everywhere exhaled a sigh of relief for the health of one of the game’s greatest players. His availability beyond this contest is unknown, but this is the time of year players will play through injuries.

Cap Problems Loom – A Look Ahead For Chicago

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The Chicago Blackhawks’ management will have to take a deep, long look in the mirror this off-season. Their core is locked up and in their primes. With an offense boasting Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, grizzled Marian Hossa, and a resurgent Artem Anisimov, there were many predictions around the league for Chicago to reclaim another cup. Instead, the comparatively deep lineup Nashville iced completely dominated Chicago, sending them packing in a 4 game sweep – the first ever time an “8th seed” has swept a “1 seed”.

This is an analysis of Chicago’s cap frustrations, and what has led to them.

Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane each account for $10.5 MM towards the team cap, and are both under contract until the 2022-23 season. With a cap ceiling that is expected to remain in the ballpark of its current $73 MM, this is a massive $21 MM, 28.8% of the team total. In past seasons, contributions from players on ELCs and cheap one-to-two year deals made this issue far less concerning. Success will do a lot to mask poor planning on management’s part.

Looking at their roster situation next year, the squad looks something like this (numbers represent $MM towards cap):

Nick Schmaltz (0.925) – Jonathan Toews (10.5) – Marian Hossa (5.275)

Artemi Panarin (6.0) – Artem Anisimov (4.550) – Patrick Kane (10.5)

Dennis Rasmussen (RFA) – Marcus Kruger (3.083) – Richard Panik (RFA)

Ryan Hartman (0.863) – Tanner Kero (0.750) – __________

*******

 

Nik Hjalmarsson (4.1) – Duncan Keith (5.538)

Brent Seabrook (6.875) – Trevor van Riemsdyk (0.825)

Michal Kempny (RFA) – Gustav Forsling (0.873)

************

Michal Roszival (0.650)

 

Corey Crawford (6.0)

_________

 

A few things to note: there are still 4 likely vacancies on this roster, and the team would probably prefer to have at least one more extra skater on hand for the season. Before the RFA contracts are negotiated, this comes to a total of $67.307 MM already spent. Brian Campbell and Johnny Oduya are not likely to return, considering the former’s price and the latter’s struggles. Roszival is not likely to be trusted with 7th defenseman duties. With Panik’s stellar season, he is nearly sure to command a sizable raise. The 26 year-old had what can only be described an incredibly over-achieving breakthrough – he notched 44 points, 22 of which were goals. The expectation should be that, even under team-friendly RFA negotiations, he will earn upwards of $2 MM, likely in the $2.5 MM range. Assuming the other two RFAs (Rasmussen and Kempny) receive somewhere around $1 MM each, this brings the grand total to $71.807 MM with at least 3 slots to fill, probably 4.

From here, Chicago could go one of two routes. They could try to fill out the remaining spots with the absolutely cheapest possible players, and hope they strike gold with another prospect or free agent. They went down this road last year, and one could reasonably assume they may not have liked the results. The other option would be to move a sizable contract out in the name of increased depth. A few options would be Seabrook or Hjalmarrson on the back-end, or perhaps Hossa up front. Although the captain’s relative cost efficiency is arguably not good, I don’t see a scenario where the Windy City management would be willing to move on from Toews. Anisimov’s play and chemistry with Kane at a cheap 2C price-tag make him unlikely to be moved, and Kruger was just signed to a cost-efficient deal.

It should be noted that if Chicago would be (for whatever reason) unable to move a contract, they could opt to leave a player unprotected for Vegas to take. This is not a likely scenario, however. Many believe that van Riemsdyk will be left unprotected, but exposing such a cheap and effective youngster seems counter-productive at this point. The problem with ditching Seabrook or Hjalmarrson is that it opens up a huge hole that is not likely to be filled much cheaper – top 4 defensemen don’t come cheap, especially considering this year’s limited UFA class. Hossa, it should be noted, has a No Movement Clause, which would severely complicate any sort of transaction involving the veteran winger.

Decisions lie aheaad for Chicago management, and the decisions may be even tougher than they were after their Cup win in 2010. That off-season, they were forced into moving Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, and Kris Versteeg. Those tough decisions laid the groundwork for their next two titles. This is the cost of success in the post-cap era, and Chicago will again need to make sacrifices if they wish to see any more.

Predator Power: The Potential Upset That Should Shock No One

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Just yesterday, I wrote an article describing the ability of the Wild to come back in their series down 0-2. No one should doubt that the Blackhawks are entirely capable of achieving the same against the Predators. The question is whether they will.

The Predators were perhaps the most overlooked team this post-season, with nearly all analysts picking the Blackhawks to take the series rather easily. This is particularly odd because offensively, the teams were practically indistinguishable (at 2.43 GF60 and 2.42 GF60 respectively). At 5 on 5, the Predators only scored 5 less goals all season long. Down the home stretch of the season, the Predators won their last 4 while the Blackhawks went winless. Although both teams have had an increase in overall offense compared to last season, Nashville had less of a drastic up-hike, suggesting less deviation from the expected output. The Predators are also far less top heavy than the Hawks – their scoring is more evenly stretched out across their lineup and not concentrated around four particular players. The Hawks’ fourth line is noteworthy in how uninspiring it is –  Jordin Tootoo and John Hayden usually average 8 and 11 minutes a piece. Finally, Pekka Rinne had a historically bad season by his standards in 2015-16 (in which the Predators took the Western Conference champs to a Game 7) – but he has returned to form in a big way this season, with a respectable (if unremarkable) .918 save percentage.

Then there’s the defense – the Blackhawks have shown signs of weakness. Duncan Keith had a solid showing, but not his Norris standard. His Corsi For was his worst since his rookie season at 50.7%  – he has trended around 54%. Niklas Hjalmarsson and Brent Seabrook have also had down seasons, Seabrook at 50%, and Hjalmarsson at 45%. After these three defenders there is a massive gap in talent. Part of the reason that these top three are having a difficult time is because they have had to log massive amounts of minutes against top players. Both Johnny Oduya and Brian Campbell have struggled to log the minutes of years past, and both have faced lower quality of competition. Each has averaged around 18 minutes of ice and it doesn’t seem like Joel Quenneville is particularly confident in putting them out there in all situations these playoffs. Trevor van Reimsdyk has performed admirably in his role, but has yet to be a positive player in a post-season year.  Even against Keith, the speed of the Predators’ forwards has created fits and frantic backpedaling. With how dominant Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and crew have looked, it is more than fair to draw comparisons.

Ultimately, the Blackhawks need to score in order to advance. Peter Laviolette has the Predators rolling as a fine-tuned forecheck machine, and Chicago seems to have been shell-shocked. Their zone time in the most recent game was frankly horrible. The 5-0 obliteration was a natural continuation of the frustrated offense the Hawks experienced in the first game, and it seems apparent that whatever game-planning occurred between the two matches fell far short of the mark. Shots were constantly blocked by the Preds and the ones that got through were not dangerous. The amount of hype that preceded Chicago headed into these playoffs was largely unwarranted – they didn’t dominate any advanced stat and only won the division by a slight margin, while their top players looked far less dynamic than the previous year. But let us not discount the effort and depth of the Predators. On paper, this isn’t a roster that is star-studded or wonderfully exciting, but they have been constructed well for playoff hockey and now have the experience to close a series. Their third line has performed well above expectations and their top guns are firing away. Underestimating this squad would be a deadly error for any team, no matter how many cups they’ve won in years past.

AHL Releases First Round Playoff Schedule

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The AHL has released the schedule for the first round of its Calder Cup Playoffs. Lots of squads are down top players with so many parent clubs still in contention, so the first round is always ripe with upsets. The schedule can be found here.

The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins had the league’s best record, and looks to have their best opportunity at a championship since their inception. Out West, the Chicago Wolves have gone from out of the playoffs and potential loss of affiliate to a dominant 1st seed performance. The action starts on Thursday, April 20th. The first round of semifinals includes a full 16 teams, but the series are only 5 games long.

The quality of play in the AHL only gets better as the years go by, and every hockey fan owes it to him/herself to catch a local playoff game when possible. Future stars and intriguing prospects can be caught up close and personal before they make an impact in the show. In terms of who to keep an eye out for:

San Jose – Daniel O’Regan (C) – 23G 35A

Stockton – Mark Jankowski (C) – 27G 29A

Chicago – Kenny Agostino (LW) – 24G 59A

Hershey – Christian Djoos (D) – 13G 45A

Wilkes-Barre – Casey DeSmith – .926 SV% 2.01 GAA

Providence – Zane McIntyre – .930 SV% 2.03 GAA

Toronto’s Roman Polak Out For Playoffs

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Toronto’s Roman Polak suffered a brutal hit at the hands of Washington’s Brooks Orpik. Polak attempted to sidestep the brunt of the hit and ended up with severe knee-on-knee contact. Worse, when Polak landed, his stricken right knee buckled and caught under the weight of his body. Polak remained down on the ice in gut-wrenching pain for well over a minute before being helped off the ice by players. TSN reports that Polak will no longer be available for Toronto in these playoffs, which throws a massive question mark onto the team’s backend.

Polak has not been a particularly phenomenal defenseman in terms of analytics this season. His physical play and ability to stay healthy have arguably been his greatest assets to the team. His Corsi For % – simply, shot attempts for versus against when he is on the ice – is an abysmal 41% on the season. For reference, Jake Gardiner’s is 52.6%, Morgan Rielly’s is 50.4%, the injured Nikita Zaitsev’s is 49.4%, and Matt Hunwick’s is 49.1%. Each of the aforementioned Leafs have definitely contributed to leading the team back into the post-season. Toronto was a dismal 23rd in Goals Allowed this season, but notably better than the previous, where they were 28th, surpassed only by Calgary (who inexplicably made the playoffs that year) and Edmonton who were McDavid-less for a long stretch of time.

Toronto needs to keep pucks out of the net against the high-octane offense of Washington if they are to win this series. So far in the series, Babcock’s defensive strategies have been relatively effective. They held even in hits with Washington through a double overtime game – 50 a piece. They blocked 35 shots in Game 2, and forced plays to the outside whenever possible. And when the chances became glorious, Frederik Andersen was there to shut the play down. Although they surrendered 44 shots and 50 shots in each respective game, many of these chances did not come from high-scoring areas. In a series where Toronto’s defense was expected to be overwhelmed, they have held fast in the absence of Zaitsev. Still, Leafs’ fans are longing for his quick return to play in hopes of taking advantage of the next two raucous home games at the Air Canada Centre. The 23-year-old Connor Carrick and 25-year-old Martin Marincin both look capable of filling some of the void left by Polak – they each averaged over 16 minutes per game in the regular season.

Minnesota And The Wild Art Of The 0-2 Comeback

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The Minnesota Wild are in a predicament. They have out-shot their opponent 76-53 through 137 minutes of hockey, created the majority of the scoring chances, and dominated advanced stats. But they are down 0-2 in their series, largely due to the heroics of St. Louis net-minder Jake Allen. Per Elias Sports, teams that go down in a series 2-0 only have a 14.1% chance of winning the series. After all, winning 4 of 5 after is no simple task. This is only made more difficult by the fact that Minnesota lost its home ice advantage and has to split in St. Louis to avoid a sweep.

In Minnesota’s current situation, the main contributing factor to the struggles is a snakebitten offensive core. A few players have been on cold streaks, including captain Mikko Koivu who hasn’t scored in his last 16. Perhaps more important is the strength of St. Louis defense over the last 10 games, only surrendering 21 goals. In order for Minnesota to regain a foothold, one of these trends will need to reverse. A goal per game, even against a prime Patrick Roy, simply isn’t good enough.

All over but the crying, right? Well, not quite. Although a 14.1% chance sounds like a longshot, there are more factors to success than one might consider. PDO can really only trend upwards from here, and the bounces are far more likely to turn than not. There is due reason to suspect the unlikely. Minnesota is intimately familiar with the back of the twine – they finished only 2 behind Pittsburgh at 183 Goals For on the season, despite a roster with far fewer superstar names. Devan Dubnyk actually had a better season than Jake Allen 5v5, and is certainly capable of stealing a game of his own. And St. Louis has had wild swings of fortune just as often as Minnesota has. Minnesota, evidenced by a wonderful Wilderness writeup, was indeed beginning to trend back upward. The team stumbled mightily through early March, but recovered quite nicely in the home stretch – winning their last 4 games in convincing fashion.  By their relatively dominant, but ultimately fruitless, on-ice performances in the first 2 games, one might believe these successes were not aberrations.

If we discount the overblown importance of home ice advantage in modern hockey, the situation seems far more salvageable than many observers might believe. As Bruce Boudreau said, “it’s not as dire as they think.” They just should be sure to win the next one.

Over The Glass: Delay Of Game Penalties And Unintended Consequences

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Ever since returning from the lockout season of 2004-05, the league has enacted a wide array of rules with the sole aim of increasing goal totals. In the season of return, the league did away with the two-line pass rule in hopes of allowing more odd-man rushes. Penalties automatically brought the impending draw in front of the offending team’s net. Icings would not allow the offending team to make a change in players, resulting in tired defenders. The NHL created a delay-of-game infraction for shooting the puck over the glass in the defensive zone, regardless of intent, as to increase power plays. Additionally, the league instituted a trapezoid of playable area behind the net for goaltenders, apparently to destroy Martin Brodeur’s dreams of a 20-goal season.

Each of these rules is well-known, and to a new generation of hockey fans, widely accepted as the norm. Hockey has undoubtedly undergone numerous rule alterations since its early inception in Canada, as the roving 6th skater and backward-only passes have long since gone extinct in the name of excitement and simplicity. There is certainly no argument that all rule changes are detrimental – quite the contrary. However, there is undoubtedly a beauty to the game as it exists right now, which is the argument to which many purists adhere. Conversely, the golden scoring era of the 1980s is looked upon with reverence and extreme fondness, for all of its faults and shortcomings in parity and defensive play. Neither extreme fully or honestly represents the counterpoints to his position, and the result is a constant struggle between old-school and new-school, conservative and radical.

In Game 2 of the Ottawa-Boston series earlier this evening, a delay-of-game penalty was called against Zdeno Chara for clearing the puck over the glass with 12 seconds remaining in regulation. Ottawa’s Dion Phaneuf didn’t score on the ensuing powerplay in overtime, but did shortly thereafter, and largely a result of that powerplay’s momentum. The scene is one that was all-too-familiar – nearly any fan can recount a horror story resulting from this rule’s implementation. Pittsburgh nearly suffered a death blow last playoffs when they were forced into overtime following three of these infractions in a row. Although no fan is dissatisfied to see their own squad on the powerplay, the rule feels slightly unjustified and slightly tainted. For all intents and purposes, clearing the puck over the glass effectively achieves the same end as icing the puck. Not allowing line changes seems fair punishment to players who would opt to take the easy route after being hemmed in their own zone. Applying a two-minute penalty, regardless of the intent, seems frivolous and irrational.

It seems only a matter of time before a pivotal series is determined solely by this sort of inadvertent mishap.

Calvert Suspended One Game For Kuhnhackl Cross-Check

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Columbus Blue Jacket Matt Calvert has indeed been suspended by the Department of Player Safety for one game for his cross-check Friday night on Tom Kuhnhackl. This is the first suspension of the 2017 postseason. As referenced by colleague Mike Furlano earlier in the day, this suspension was one which was difficult to predict. The Department of Player Safety has been notoriously inconsistent in its application of league rules, especially when the playoffs are concerned.

The last suspension for a cross-check was assessed to Mike Hoffman of the Ottawa Senators on December 14th of last year, for a length of two games. The video of the infraction can be viewed here, with commentary from the DoPS. Although this play is certainly reckless, it occurs in front of the net in a tied game, in what could conceivably be construed as a “hockey play”. Hoffman, like Calvert, had no previous fines or suspensions – “prior history” in the eyes of the league. The Calvert play, meanwhile, occurs at center ice with little time in a game that is virtually over. Perhaps most importantly is the difference between reactions of the two players, on the ice and off. Hoffman attempted to justify his actions by explaining the riding of his stick upwards on the back of Logan Couture. On the ice, he stumbled over the player after delivering the blow. Calvert, conversely, changed his path and doubled back to deliver a body check to the hunched Kuhnhackl’s head following the cross-check.

Perhaps the greatest grievance of hockey fans is the inconsistency when it comes to intent. Not unlike ethical dilemmas, we often choose to judge the severity of a misstep by the underlying intent. Was the offender malicious and knowing in his action, or was the action merely a result of circumstance? Society functions in this way, the law works this way, and even the NHL rulebook provides a separate match penalty towards those who attempt to injury opponents. A large reason why the Scott Stevens headshots have left the game is because the intent was not merely to separate the player from the puck, but to inflict grievous bodily harm. One can only hope that a Todd Bertuzzi incident won’t be necessary for the league to take more substantial, decisive action to protect its players, postseason or regular, star or 4th -liner, history or not.

Officiating will likely continue to pose an issue this post-season, as fans’ patience for situational leniency will be tested.

 

 

Playoff Notes: Blackhawks-Predators, Matthews, McDavid

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Game one of the playoff series between Nashville and Chicago certainly didn’t play out how many expected. Not only did the Predators steal a game in Chicago, they managed to shut out one of the most potent offenses. The Chicago Tribune’s Steve Rosenbloom “dares” the Predators to try and play a similar game against the Blackhawks in Game two. Rosenbloom writes that the Preds played “old-time” hockey which saw a vintage style of play from the 90’s: get a goal and sit on the lead. Rosenbloom goes on, adding that the Hawks didn’t take advantage of several gifts from Nashville while also giving Preds netminder Pekka Rinne too easy of a job Thursday evening.

  • Meanwhile, the Tennessean’s Adam Vingan writes that while it shocked many, those in the Nashville locker room never doubted for a second that they could compete with their Central division rival. Vingan writes that the season series was much closer than people think, and that for the Preds to head home up 2-0, Rinne must be “sensational” like he was in the first game while Nashville must sustain the aggressiveness that made them a higher scoring team in the regular season. Nashville, Vingan adds, must not allow Chicago to dominate play as they did in the final two periods.
  • Yahoo’s Greg Wyshynski reports that the league is monitoring the ratings for the games involving young superstars Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews. NBC Sports Executive Producer Sam Flood believes that a long playoff run would only make McDavid and Matthews more likely to be on NBC next season. Flood added that NBC responded to the hype of both players, flexing in games with the young stars to guarantee them air time. The next three games for both players’ teams will be featured on the NBC Sports Network, instead of the USA network. Wyshynski advises hockey fans eager to see more of McDavid and Matthews should tune in to those games.

Analysts Weigh In On The Stars’ Hiring Of Ken Hitchcock

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The Hockey News’ Ken Campbell says it’s necessity, and not nostalgia, that led Ken Hitchcock back to Dallas. Writing that the Stars are a “mess” in net and on the blue line, Campbell sees Hitchcock as the perfect tonic for a team struggling to find an identity and build on its successes during the 2015-16 season.  From Campbell:

Hitchcock, of course, is the only coach in franchise history to win a Stanley Cup in Dallas. And hooking up with the old ex certainly worked out for Claude Julien and the Montreal Canadiens, Randy Carlyle and the Anaheim Ducks and Paul Maurice and the Carolina Hurricanes.

And there’s no doubt that the market’s familiarity with Hitchcock is a nice bonus, GM Jim Nill is far too smart to pass over more qualified candidates just to get the band back together. Ken Hitchcock is coaching the Dallas Stars next season because Ken Hitchcock is exactly what the Dallas Stars need next season.

Campbell believes that Hitchcock will prove an immediate gain for the penalty kill, which was a source of discontent for Dallas all season. He also writes that Hitchcock should improve the overall defensive strategy, which in turn, will help the netminders, who have been underwhelming.

  • Meanwhile, the Dallas Morning-News’ Mike Heika recalls that it was after a visit to Detroit in 2010 that Hitchcock became acquainted with Nill, who was then the assistant general manager in Detroit. Heika cautions that for this to work, Nill has to unconditionally support Hitchcock, who has been known to rankle his players–going back to his first stint in Dallas. He adds that this shouldn’t be challenging for Nill, since Detroit did employ two of the toughest coaches in terms of mindset: Scotty Bowman and Mike Babcock.
  • Finally, Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski rejects the nostalgia route as well, believing that it was absolutely the hire that Nill had to make. Hitchcock, Wyshynski writes, is exactly the guy to stop the Stars’ slide and make them a more defensively competent team. Further,  the netminder between the pipes is irrelevant as Hitch succeeded regardless of the goalie during his other stops. Outside of perhaps Eddie Belfour, Hitchcock delivered winners in spite of goalies who rarely stole games for his team. Instead, it was defensive prowess that Hitchcock used to win, and will use again to get Dallas back to where they should be.

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