Aging Stars Left Behind
Probably the most intriguing subplot of the NHL off-season this summer has been the total unwillingness of many teams to sign older players. Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton are two notable examples, but even in their cases there was a lot of unnecessary complication. Marleau had to leave the only franchise he’d ever played for to get an additional contract year, while Thornton had to settle for a single year in San Jose. While hockey fans are enamored by the seemingly ageless Jaromir Jagr, GMs aren’t so impressed. What gives?
The league is heading in a particular direction, and that direction is speed and puck possession. Analytics are absolutely dominating every conversation with NHL executives, agents, coaches, and scouts. For the first year however, we’re seeing this level of scrutiny drastically and obviously affecting player signings and market value. If you had said even three years ago that 46-point hall-of-fame winger would have difficulty finding a home on a cheap NHL contract, you’d have been laughed out of the room.
Shane Doan and Jarome Iginla are interesting cases, each for different reasons. Doan was the ultimate team player in Arizona, dealing with nearly two decades of ownership drama and poor-performing teams. He’s also fiercely disliked within his division for his skills in the art of aggravating. He hits, he plays defense, and he still has the offensive acumen to contribute to a third or fourth line. No takers. Iginla has certainly slowed down, but he looked like he belonged in Los Angeles. He has undeniable scoring ability, and 20 goals wouldn’t be out of the question. His leadership skills were lauded endlessly as the gritty, take-no-prisoners captain in Calgary. At the historically underappreciated left-wing position, he stands out in the new millennium as truly elite. Not to mention, he’s still desperate for that first Cup ring. No takers. Andrei Markov will be 39 years old, but he’s one of the most consistent powerplay quarterbacks in the post-lockout age. He can still skate relatively well and would even be able to handle second-pairing minutes. His shot is a bomb and it seems he never misses a pass when he has a lane. He can’t find a team willing to offer him a second year on his contract. No takers.
Then there’s Jagr. Jagr is easily within the top 50 players of all time. He’s flirting with 2000 points and he controls the puck better than almost anyone in the league, even at the ripe age of 45. He hasn’t posted a negative Corsi since the stat was tracked, and is only a season removed from 66 points, which helped propel Florida into the playoff for the first time in an eon. His foot speed is really his only drawback, and yet, he sits and waits. It’s questionable as to how much of the holdup is based on his desire for adequate compensation, but the fact remains that he is still unclaimed.
Ultimately, the issue for these players comes down to a combination of issues. Firstly, analytics. For those of us who aren’t particularly adept, this overwhelming trend may seem tiresome. There are certainly players in the league who agree that it leaves a lot to be desired. Still in its infancy, Fenwick and Corsi percentiles are really all that has been accepted by the mainstream of hockey fandom, while most front offices have entire positions dedicated to this developing field. A huge part of the disconnect between onlookers and organizations lies in that difference in emphasis of these advanced stats.
Secondly, many teams in the league simply don’t feel they are truly ready to compete for a Stanley Cup. At the moment, under 10 teams probably believe they can contend in the upcoming season, barring a Cinderella run. The league’s parity is arguably at an all-time low since 2004. Consequently, many teams are looking to rebuild or retool their teams, to gain young talent and speedy, dynamic players who will be a part of the future for multiple years. The aforementioned players are all seeking one or two year deals, and many teams simply aren’t thinking in that timeframe. Additionally, the few teams who do feel set to contend right now (Chicago, Pittsburgh, Washington, etc.) are tight up against the cap and don’t want to allocate valuable dollars to a “declining” asset.
Whether this scenario is fair or not to aging players, it seems a dynamic that is here to stay. It would be wholly unsurprising to see this avoidance of over-35 contracts become a trend in the coming years. They’ve certainly bitten teams hard in the past, and perhaps general managers are backing away for good reason. Most of these players should still find a fit, but the prices could be exceptionally low.
Detroit’s Contract Pitfalls
Detroit is currently dealing with one of the more contentious RFA negotiations in recent memory, as Tomas Tatar has refused a multi-year deal and is not happy with the franchise’s perception of him. The team also needs to negotiate a new contract for Andreas Athanasiou, a speedy center with flashy hands and a lot of upside. The major problem, however, is the cap space with which GM Ken Holland has to operate.
Detroit’s perilous situation is bizarre primarily because it has been largely self-inflicted, and unnecessarily so. The team already has an under-performing and vastly overpaid defensive group, but decided to bring in declining veteran Trevor Daley to a $3.17 MM, three-year deal. This places the team with $2.28 MM left in cap space while still needing to lock up Athanasiou and Tatar. It should be noted that 37 year-old Johan Franzen has been on long-term injured reserve since 2015, so they should be able to allocate his $3.95 MM salary to that reserve upon resumption of the season. Considering the apparently lax interpretation of the off-season rules, this effectively allows Holland $6.23 MM left to sign his two players. Theoretically, it could be enough, but in reality money will need to move out.
Tatar turned down a 5-year deal worth $5 MM per season, according to Michigan Live’s Ansar Khan. If that AAV isn’t enough, which it appears not to be, Holland is in a bit of a bind. Tatar was their only player to break 20 goals (25), and finished third on the team in points behind only Henrik Zetterberg and Gustav Nyquist. His offensive capabilities are pretty essential to a team hurting so badly for consistent production. Tatar wants his $6 MM, and there’s a good chance he’ll get it. Holland could try to deal Tatar before his arbitration date, but the return might not be as productive as Holland would like. If the parties do go to arbitration, Tatar will only need to sign for one season, which would almost assure his eventual departure.
Athanasiou will come cheaper and likely on a shorter term. If Holland can secure the player for under $2 MM, it would be a boon. The wiser move would be to try to extend the player on a longer deal in hopes that he becomes a bargain in the near future. Unfortunately, with the Tatar situation taking precedence, it seems an unlikely scenario. Even still, his measly $2 MM would put the Wings over the cap ceiling, even with Franzen on LTIR. So who would be on the outs?
Petr Mrazek was almost lost to the Vegas Golden Knights through the expansion draft, and with Jared Coreau playing stellar in the Grand Rapids, he seems the most likely candidate to move. He only costs $4 MM and after his down season, Holland would like to give Jimmy Howard the reigns back. Unfortunately, the Mrazek “attitude” rumors may have lessened his trade value. Perhaps even more importantly, the goaltending carousel has ground to a halt, with essentially every team securing a starter for the coming year.
Justin Abdelkader is on a really poor contract, complete with a no-trade clause, worth $4.25 MM AAV for the next six seasons. After a seven goal season, however, there won’t be many teams chomping at the bit for his services. Darren Helm didn’t fare much better offensively, but with a $3.85 MM contract and only four years on his deal, he’s not entirely unmovable. Again, he has a no-trade clause to complicate matters. There are the defensemen, such as Jonathan Ericsson, but with three years left and already declining at 33, he would also net little in return. Luke Glendening is an interesting option, as he is the cheapest of this group. Despite his two-way prowess, a forward with 3 goals in a season, even at a mere $1.8 MM, will still be a tough sell.
Ultimately, the Wings have overpaid a number of players and the contracts are for far too long. The amount of no-trade clauses handed out is an absurd hindrance when a team is trying to rebuild or retool. With 8 players on the roster with some sort of movement-limiting clause, Holland has few options to give himself relief. The worst case scenario would be to lose Tatar, but the team has truly painted itself into a corner regardless of who is shipped out. With an aging defense and an uninspiring offense, the Wings’ return to relevance will only be delayed from here on in.
Vegas Signs Reinhart And Leipsic To Two-Year Deals
The Vegas Golden Knights have announced the signings of Griffin Reinhart and Brendan Leipsic to two-year contracts, per the team’s twitter. Reinhart’s deal is worth $800,000 AAV, while Leipsic’s is only for $650,000 a season.
Reinhart is a former first-round pick, picked fourth overall in 2012 by the New York Islanders. He was moved to Edmonton for a first-round and second-round pick. He under-performed in Alberta, only playing 29 games total. His Corsi For Relative % was a poor -3.3%, and he often struggled with the puck on his stick, flubbing simple zone exits. With only two career assists to his name, he has a lot to prove in the NHL. That said, there was a reason he was so highly touted in his draft class. He’s mobile for a 6’4 defenseman and has tons of room to grow at only 23 years old. He has shown a solid pass from time to time and has the potential to be a solid top-4 defender if he can learn to adjust to the intellectual pace of the NHL game. Watching him down the tail stretch of the season and in his one playoff game in relief due to injuries, he’s not a lost cause. Reinhart has grown physically and still has a decent skill level. Vegas will hope to have struck gold with this player, but he’ll have to beat out other promising young defensemen in the system in order to gain heavy playing time.
Leipsic is a more curious move, as he is quite undersized and is no sure bet to crack an NHL roster. That said, he had a 120-point season with the Portland Winterhawks and adjusted well to his time with the AHL Marlies, potting 50 points twice. The 5’10 winger was an add-on in a trade between Toronto and Nashville a few years back, and has only dressed for 6 games total for the Leafs. Still, he’s only 23, and is a sparkplug on every shift. He moves quickly and has decent hands, but is most likely destined for an AHL scoring role. He’ll have the opportunity to flourish in Vegas if he proves himself early, considering that team’s lack of proven offensive depth.
Neither player had a particularly strong case for a raise, so this news is not much of a shock. Still, Vegas is locking up the players it claimed in the expansion draft and banking on younger players to step up this season.
Atlantic Notes: Johnson, Tatar
Will the length of Tyler Johnson‘s contract come back to haunt the Bolts? The Hockey News’ Ken Campbell writes that while he’s only 26 and the numbers were below his value, Johnson may very well already be in decline. Though his numbers were would have been similar had they gone to arbitration, Campbell wonders if Johnson will put up the numbers that got him the deal. Should he get 55-60 points per season, Campbell believes it to be worth the money, calling it a steal. But if his regression continues? He just hopes for general manager Steve Yzerman‘s sake that the Jonathan Drouin deal doesn’t come back to haunt him, either.
It’s no secret that Johnson has struggled to stay healthy. His numbers have fallen steadily since his career year in 2014-15 where he put up 72 points. His playoff numbers in consecutive seasons were also impressive, and most likely what secured him the contract. Campbell also believes that Johnson is dependent upon his linemates, and in spite of averaging 53 points in his first four seasons, there’s a lot riding on it for him, and the Lightning.
- There’s more interesting takes coming out of Detroit regarding Tomas Tatar. The curious case of his negotiations began with him saying if he only gets a year, he’s done in Detroit. General manager Ken Holland all but shrugged it off, which led many to wonder just how motivated the Red Wings were to getting a long term deal done. The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James reports that the Red Wings are wary of giving Tatar a seven-year deal. This is somewhat understandable in the cap era with the exception of one point–Holland has been more than happy to offer long term deals to players who haven’t exactly produced to warrant them–with Justin Abdelkader being the best example. So with Tatar, it’s curious. The Detroit News’ Gregg Krupa goes a step further, writing that it’s essentially “cap malpractice” if Detroit isn’t paying him because they’re too bloated from other contracts. St. James adds that Tatar hasn’t produced like T.J. Oshie, or Tyler Johnson, but to be fair, Tatar hasn’t been surrounded with the talent the aforementioned have. Further, as Krupa points out, that if a deal isn’t worked out, it’s more evidence of roster mismanagement. Once the model franchise of the NHL, the Red Wings decision making continues to baffle. The team isn’t much improved from last season, they’re strapped financially, and they’re fighting with their leading scorer on a deal. It will be interesting to see how ownership reacts should the Red Wings struggle out of the gate, especially with Holland making it a priority to make the playoffs.
PHR Originals: 7/3/17 – 7/9/17
Here’s a look back at some of the original content from PHR last week.
- Holger writes about how the Rangers may want to figure out how to pay Ryan McDonagh as he’s only a couple years away from free agency. Currently playing for the Rangers at a bargain, McDonagh may be off to another spot should the Blueshirts not have the cap room to pay him.
- What else could a back-to-back champion need in order to three-peat? Brian offers the Penguins scouts the Pens as to what they should be looking for to keep their dynasty running into a third consecutive season.
- Zach wonders if the San Jose Sharks need to make another move to bolster a roster now missing mainstay Patrick Marleau.
- Seth profiled Jaromir Jagr to see what a team would be getting with the 45-year-old who still appears to have a little bit left in the tank.
- Mike showed how many players are still being compensated by their former team who paid them to go away.
- In addition to hosting his weekly chat, Gavin asked our readers which available free agent was the best choice for teams seeking help.
- Finally, I looked to see if both the qualitative and quantitative data really show that the Chicago Blackhawks’ window is closing. Though some of the numbers are harsh, I think that things are not as grim as many want to believe.
PHR Mailbag: Duchene, Kessel, Hurricanes, Bruins
We’ve been taking your off-season inquiries over the weekend in the comments and using #PHRMailbag on Twitter. Here are some questions and answers to ponder:
Conorsoxfan: Is Matt Duchene still going to be moved? What about Landeskog? Are the Avs waiting for the right offer or are they holding on to all their assets for now?
We received several questions about Matt Duchene and for good reason. The Avalanche have been speaking with teams since the Trade Deadline about moving the talented forward and Duchene himself is on record as saying that he is open to a move, but months later he is still in Colorado. It seems that GM Joe Sakic has a very specific (and lofty) return in mind and is hesitant to move Duchene without getting exactly what he wants. That return certainly includes a young, proven defenseman, which is not exactly a commodity that most teams are eager to move. The Columbus Blue Jackets and Carolina Hurricanes seem like they have the best chance of meeting Sakic’s demands, as both teams are loaded with young, NHL-ready defenseman. However, the rumor that Colorado rejected a deal for Travis Hamonic that included Duchene makes you wonder if Sakic is searching for a caliber of player that is simply unavailable. It would be best for Duchene, the Avs, and the rest of the NHL trade market if a deal would get done sooner rather than later, but don’t be surprised if Duchene is still a talking point at the next Trade Deadline.
As for Gabriel Landeskog, rumors of his deaparture have definitely been on the back burner this summer after he too was hot topic at the Trade Deadline. Although the Avalanche are coming off a historically bad season, they seem to be playing it safe with their rebuild. They have not sold off all of their veteran pieces, nor have they operated like a team that’s pushing for a playoff spot. Their only major additions this season are a backup goaltender, Jonathan Bernier, and a low risk-high reward gamble, Nail Yakupov. They got potentially the best player in the draft at #4 overall in defenseman Cale Makar, but he is at least two seasons away from seeing NHL ice time. It seems that Sakic is content with keeping his roster intact and slowly adding in younger players and moving out older pieces. That type of status quo strategy would seem to indicate that Colorado isn’t keen on losing its captain unless the return could truly change the course of the franchise. Especially if Duchene does end up traded, don’t expect Landeskog to follow. He’s likely to remain in Colorado for the time being.
@Wings16Canes13: When and will Pittsburgh trade Kessel? Or does another coach have to go first?
It always seems like there’s some controversy surrounding Phil Kessel. This question alludes to rumors coming out of Pittsburgh that the uber-talented winger and head coach Mike Sullivan don’t see eye-to-eye on many things. Moreover, it’s been said that assistant Rick Tocchet acted as go-between for the two these past two seasons, and with Tocchet likely headed to Arizona as the head coach of the Coyotes, the relationship between Kessel and Sullivan could get worse. However, the Pittsburgh Penguins are also back-to-back Stanley Cup champs, with both Kessel and Sullivan playing major roles in each title. Neither is likely to be on the move any time soon, especially not because they dislike each other. It may not be the most comfortable locker room, but the two will learn to live with each other and any struggles for the Penguins in 2017-18 will be attributed to Stanley Cup hangover, not a feuding coach and player. With that said, Kessel has a $6.8MM cap hit for five more years, which could cause cap trouble down the road for the Penguins, while the team has also shown a willingness to move on from head coaches after just a down season or two. Both Kessel and Sullivan could be gone in a few years, but it’s impossible to know which first and when, only that it’s highly unlikely to be this year.
mikedickinson: Hurricanes are loaded on defense and have three kids who can play in the AHL as well. They aren’t trading any of their top 4. Can they trade from their strength to address a weakness (center)? Also, JVR to Raleigh to play with his brother?
The Carolina Hurricanes boast one of the youngest, deepest, and most talented defensive corps in the entire league. All-Star Justin Faulk leads a group that includes 2015 #5 pick Noah Hanifin, 2012 fourth-rounder Jaccob Slavin, 2013 third-rounder Brett Pesce, 2014 #7 pick Haydn Fleury, 2014 second-rounder Roland McKeown, and now the recently-acquired Trevor van Riemsdyk, not to mention dependable depth defender Klas Dahlbeck and 2016-17 AHL surprise Jake Chelios. There’s also 2016 first-rounder Jake Bean to consider as well, though he remains in juniors. That group has one thing in common: none of them are more than 26 years old. When the Hurricanes acquired van Riemsdyk from the Vegas Golden Knights last month, many felt that the move indicated that Faulk, the team’s top right-shot defenseman, would be on the move. After all, the team has been linked to Matt Duchene as well as others as they try to bring their forward depth up to the same level as their defense. However, GM Ron Francis has stated since that he wants to keep his starters together. It also seems unlikely that he’s keen to move talented teenager Bean, leaving promising, but slowly developing players like Fleury, McKeown, and Chelios as his top trade chips from the blue line. None of those players will get a Duchene or similar-caliber player, but don’t be surprised if the ‘Canes use them to add some depth forwards this off-season or along the way next season. If Francis is posturing, then yes any of Faulk, Hanafin, Slavin, or Pesce could be used to bring in a big fish.
As for James van Riemsdyk, it is an interesting development to have his brother in Carolina, an up-and-coming team (like the Maple Leafs) that’s in need of an impact forward. JVR is entering the final year of his contract and it seems unlikely that Toronto will re-sign him, considering the expensive extensions coming down the line for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. The question then becomes whether or not the Leafs are interested in moving him this off-season and whether the Hurricanes are willing to pay the price for his services this year when they can sign him next summer for free. If the Leafs look to deal him, Fleury or McKeown as the centerpieces likely won’t cut it. The Leafs are on the hunt for a top-pair right-shot to pair with Morgan Rielly and Faulk certainly fits the bill, but that’s a high price to pay for an impending free agent. I think you’re on to something with JVR and TVR teaming up in Carolina, but I think it could come at a lower price toward the Trade Deadline or via free agency next off-season.
mpfallon: Will the bruins make some big offseason moves?
This depends on your definition of “big”. Despite rumors that the Bruins have been looking into acquiring a top-four left-handed defenseman and a top-six winger, GM Don Sweeney has also made it clear that he doesn’t want to acquire players that will block Boston’s talented young prospects. College star Anders Bjork, 2015 first-rounder Jake DeBrusk, Peter Cehlarik, who got a taste of the NHL last year, and possibly even Danton Heinen and Jesse Gabrielle will all compete with Frank Vatrano, Matt Beleskey, and recent signing Kenny Agostino for a top-nine spot on the left side, and Ryan Spooner could join the mix if the B’s prefer rookie Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson at third line center. The left wing battle could spill over to the right side as well, where top forward prospect Zach Senyshyn will also look to make the team. On the blue line, Rob O’Gara, Jakub Zboril, and Jeremy Lauzon will all fight for the final spot on the left side, and the recent signing of Paul Postma could indicate that the team is okay with moving Kevan Miller to the left side to free up a spot for Adam McQuaid to continue to be a starter with Postma as the seventh man.
There is more than enough depth in Boston that the Bruins may make no moves for the rest of the off-season. Odds are that they do something, but likely not anything “big”. A trade for a left-shot defenseman, possibly a Nick Holden or Jonathan Ericsson, or the signing of a stopgap winger, like Drew Stafford, Thomas Vanek, or Alex Chiasson seems possible, but anything bigger could be a long shot. So the short answer to your question is no, they won’t make “big off-season moves”. They could make a small, but significant move or two, but chances are a big trade would come closer to the Trade Deadline after they give the kids a shot first.
Leafs Notes: Bracco, Woll, Dzierkals
As the Toronto Sun’s Lance Horby reports, highly-regarded Toronto prospect Jeremy Bracco is curiously absent from Leafs’ development camp for the second day in a row with an undisclosed illness. Bracco reported for camp, but has not seen the ice and the team has yet to make an announcement regarding his whereabouts or condition. Bracco, the team’s second-round pick in 2o15, is a candidate to make the Leafs roster for the 2017-18 season, but a development camp appearance would go a long way to securing that spot. After scoring 83 points in 57 games in the OHL last season, Bracco has shown that he can score at a high level. Nevertheless, the undersized winger has a long way to go to prove that he’s NHL-ready and missing valuable time with the Toronto coaches could hinder his chances of making the team.
- Development camp lost another big name today, as goaltender Joseph Woll left with a leg injury. The Leafs’ third-round selection in 2016, the 18-year-old Woll just finished his freshman year at Boston College and is years away from NHL enlistment. However, there will surely be concern over the extent of the injury and the loss of valuable ice time at camp for Toronto’s goalie of the future.
- One player looking to take advantage of some more attention with other big name sidelined is Martins Dzierkals. The 20-year-old winger told Michael Augello that his goal this off-season is to earn a spot in the organization, rather than return to the QMJHL for his overage season. Dzierkals was selected in the third round in 2015 and has been better than a point-per-game scorer for the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies ever since, but still may not be a shoo-in for a roster spot with the AHL’s Marlies. Toronto has 48 players signed out of a possible 50 already and that roster crunch, perhaps even more than Dzierkals’ ability, could keep him in juniors for another year.
Eastern Notes: Liljegren, Bozak, Athanasiou
Toronto’s first round pick Timothy Liljegren has impressed in development camp with his size and skill, working with Stephane Robidas. At a healthy 6’4 and after being projected to go much earlier, some Leafs fans have hoped that they might get a glimpse of the young Swede on the backend. Outside of pre-season, that doesn’t seem to be the case. In all likelihood, it seems Liljegren will be headed back to Sweden or to the Ontario Hockey League, according to his own comments on NHL.com. The Leafs’ defense is particularly deep, so it was always a long-shot to see him crack the squad. Management won’t look to rush him into a roster spot, and that seems a wise decision. Regardless of his very apparent ability, further development at a lower level will only improve his staying power in the NHL.
- As mentioned in an earlier PHR post, the New York Post’s Larry Brooks mentioned Tyler Bozak as a potential target for the Rangers. But it also seems probable he could land elsewhere. Many teams are on the hunt for cheap center help, and with Toronto looking towards their future contract obligations, Bozak seems rather expendable. Pittsburgh is absolutely in need, and he would be a phenomenal fit with Phil Kessel, considering their past chemistry. Another team who is very willing to make moves at the moment is Arizona. They already stole a valuable player in Derek Stepan, but GM John Chayka seems adept in transaction and eager to engage the trade market. Adding Bozak would add some two-way ability and allow other players, such as Christian Dvorak, to slot back into more natural roles. After apparently missing out on the Matt Duchene sweepstakes, Bozak could even be a decent option for 3rd pivot in Nashville. Bozak will draw lots of attention if and/or when he is shopped.
- The Red Wings are not looking to make many moves at the moment, according to Michigan Live’s Ansar Khan. The Tomas Tatar negotiations are apparently not going well. Khan believes the team could look to move him later on, but both parties expect him to play the bulk of the season before that option is considered. Andreas Athanasiou would be another option to move, but again Khan believes the team will see how well it does in battling for a post-season berth before heading in that direction. GM Ken Holland seems to be relatively content with the group he has, and with few off-season moves it could be another rough year in Detroit if certain players don’t make incredible strides.
RFA Arbitration Hearings Begin Soon
Although it’s likely that many of these restricted free-agents come to terms with their teams before the hearing dates, the list of set dates has been released. Last year, only one RFA actually made it to their date without a deal. We should see more players actually make it to the arbitration process this year, but how many is unclear. It could be zero, or it could be five.
That said, these arbitration hearings begin in only 11 days, so the crunch is on. Teams will hope to hammer out details with players they hope to lock in for longer than two years. PHR published a preview highlighting players most likely to see a massive pay-raise, but arbitration by its nature can be rather capricious.
According theScore’s Cody Wilkins, the set dates are as follows:
July 20 – Tyler Johnson (Tampa Bay), Colton Parayko (St. Louis), Tomas Tatar (Detroit)
July 21 – Ryan Dzingel (Ottawa), Michael Chaput (Vancouver)
July 22 – Micheal Ferland (Calgary), Viktor Arvidsson (Nashville)
July 24 – Austin Watson (Nashville), Brian Dumoulin (Pittsburgh)
July 25 – Joey LaLeggia (Edmonton), Mika Zibanejad (NY Rangers), Ondrej Palat (Tampa Bay)
July 26 – Jordan Martinook (Arizona), Ryan Spooner (Boston)
July 27 – Robin Lehner (Buffal0), Marek Mazanec (Nashville)
July 28 – Jean-Gabriel Pageau (Ottawa)
July 31 – Matt Nieto (Colorado)
August 1 – Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg), Reid Boucher (Vancouver)
August 2 – Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders), Kevin Gravel (Los Angeles)
August 3 – Nate Schmidt (Vegas), Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota)
August 4 – Mikael Granlund (Minnesota), Conor Sheary (Pittsburgh), Nathan Beaulieu (Buffalo)
Free Agent Profile: Jaromir Jagr
Not many believed that Jagr would be left without a contract over a full week into July. While many Florida fans believed GM Dale Tallon was looking to impress his vision on the franchise in an aggressive way, a return at a reduced cost seemed possible. Barring that, Jagr was sure to draw interest from offense-starved squads. He was listed as our 13th best available UFA for a reason, and yet, there’s been little to no chatter on the Czech star.
Jagr has seen a dip in his value, undeniably. He scored 11 less goals than the previous season; that said, he’s still a lock for 40 points. He’s slowed down quite noticeably, and one can only imagine that is the crux of his issue in attracting suitors. His vision and hands are still world-class, but his speed is an encumbrance to whichever line he’s on. That said, he’s a positive impact player in terms of analytics and fancy possession stats. If you look at his HERO chart (a handy bar-graph representation of advanced stats such as shots suppressed and generated), he performs well above the “prototypical” second-liner. No one in the analytics community seems to understand how such a consistent performer can be left unclaimed at this date. People constantly criticize players like Jagr for poor defensive qualities. There is an element of truth to these claims, as he is certainly hustling harder going north than south. But results, and actual goals against for his lines over the years, show that perhaps he knows something we don’t.
The game is changing, and with faster teams heading deeper into the playoffs, Jagr’s ability to fend off attackers and maintain a cycle is less valuable than it was previously. More rush play, more dump and chase, and less east-west movement through the neutral zone is the way many teams are hoping to push the pac and tilt the ice in their favor. Signing Jagr doesn’t fit that trendy ideology, and that’s the main holdup at this juncture. The amount of teams who are willing to slow the game down, even just on special teams, are becoming fewer and fewer. Ultimately, he will find a home, but it could be a drastic reduction in pay and icetime. Jagr was already getting acclimated to a sheltered role with short shifts, but he may be even more of a utility skater in his new home.
If for nothing else, Jagr is a magician on the powerplay and can pass the puck with ease. He would be a wonderful asset merely as a leader, whose experience and off-ice attributes would benefit the growth of younger players.
Potential Suitors
We originally projected that Jagr would return to the Florida Panthers, as we also believed would be the case for Thomas Vanek. We were wrong on both fronts, as Dale Tallon has opted instead for a massive roster shakeup. Jagr quipped on Twitter that he had no calls this July 1st, although that claim may merely be an attempt to garner greater interest.
A New Jersey reunion might be in the cards. They finished 29th in goals for and Jagr could be relegated to 3rd-line duty with a healthy roster after all of GM Ray Shero’s shuffling. He’s certainly not going to lead the team in scoring, but in the tough Metro division it’s difficult to see them making the playoffs anyway. In what should be a year to build upon, and with multiple youngsters (Nico Hischier, Pavel Zacha) looking to cement themselves in the league, what better role model than Jagr to provide leadership and calm? The team could also do to add NHL proven forwards – they have the second fewest organizational contracts at 33, and many are not ready for prime-time.
Although they’re not the ideal landing spot, the New York Islanders seemingly always need a little extra fire power. They too have the disadvantage of trying to survive in the high-flying Metro, and Tavares could use another piece on the powerplay to bring it back to respectability (they finished with a 15% conversion rate in 2016-17). Again, his leadership abilities on a relatively young squad would provide a good example. He can also still manufacture chances on his own, and outside of Tavares, the team still struggles with that for long stretches. Pair him with one of their many two-way forwards, such as Josh Bailey, and his minimal defensive shortcomings won’t be as impactful. Cap room on an internal basis is an issue, but Jagr is getting cheaper by the day.
Many teams could take a flier on a one year deal. At 45 years-old, it would be highly unlikely to make a significant commitment to him. Arizona and Colorado could both certainly use the offensive help, but they both moved on from their own free agent old-timers in Shane Doan in Jarome Iginla, so both seem unlikely. Carolina already added a greybeard in Justin Williams, but scoring depth couldn’t hurt there. Vancouver is already incredibly old, so why not double down at this point and help out your special teams? And there’s always the possibility that Jagr finally decides to take a paycut to chase after a final championship. It has been since 1992 for him.
Expected Contract
Jagr will continue to wait away in free agency limbo for some time. This may be his final contract, but it’s difficult to determine how important competitiveness of the team will be to him. I think he stays in the East, namely New Jersey, for one year at a measly $1.75 MM. It won’t delay the rebuild, which is necessary in Newark, but it will keep the team just above water in the division. I’m not certain Shero wants to gamble on a total tank, as we saw how well that worked for Colorado in the recent draft. They ultimately need proven forwards to round out the roster, and the price is right to buy low.