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How Did The Top Five Picks In The 2016 Draft Class Fare?

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As the importance of drafting and developing talent takes precedence in a hard cap league, PHR takes a look at how the first five picks from the 2016 NHL Draft fared nearly a calendar year after their selection.

#1: Auston Matthews – Toronto Maple Leafs

It almost seems silly writing about him since the Calder Trophy nominated center has been one of the major reasons the Leafs made the playoffs and have given the Capitals fits. Matthews had 69 points in 82 games (40-29) and was everything the Leafs could have hoped he would be. Matthews scored four goals in his debut, and though he had his share of rookie struggles, looked wise beyond his very young age on the ice. Already in the playoffs, Matthews has four points in five games in the playoffs (3-1) and will certainly lead this team to a contender status in the years to come.

#2: Patrik Laine – Winnipeg Jets

Hardly a consolation prize, Laine is also a Calder Trophy finalist and finished the season with 64 points (36-28) but it was individual performances that garnered attention. Laine registered three hat tricks this season, and in a strictly point-per-game glance, Laine led Matthews and every other rookie this season.  Should Winnipeg improve their fortunes, Laine has the game breaking ability to take a talented team deep into the playoffs.

Oct 19, 2016; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) chases Winnipeg Jets right wing Patrik Laine (29) during the third period at MTS Centre. Winnipeg won 5-4 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports

#3: Pierre-Luc Dubois – Columbus Blue Jackets

One of only two players in the top ten to not spend time with the big club, Dubois split time with Cape Breton and Blainville-Boisbriand in the QMJHL. He didn’t disappoint. Combined, the left winger had 55 points in 48 games (21-34) and has been dynamic in the President’s Cup playoffs, posting 14 points (5-9) in 11 games. The Armada are currently in the semi-finals against Charlottetown (trailing 1-0), and if his current performance is any indication, Dubois could find himself breaking camp with the Blue Jackets next fall.

#4: Jesse Puljujarvi – Edmonton Oilers

Puljujarvi was sent down in early January after making the team out of camp, and his numbers in Bakersfield were respectable: 28 points (12-16) in 39 games and the opportunity to play real minutes instead of playing limited time in Edmonton. Puljujarvi appears to be a rising star, and the extra seasoning should help. His play will continue as he was loaned to Finland’s national team to play in the World Championships.

#5: Olli Juolevi – Vancouver Canucks

Juolevi spent the season with the London Knights, racking up 42 points (10-32) in 58 games. His point total matched his 2015-16 results, with the exception of adding a goal. Juolevi scored the game winning goal in the first round of the OHL playoffs against Windsor that sent the Knights onto the second round, where they ultimately lost to Erie in seven games. During their 14 game run, Juolevi had eight points (3-5). The smooth puck moving defenseman was the first blueliner taken in the draft, and could be a candidate to make the team next year as the Canucks will be retooling their roster with more youth.

Atlantic Notes: Detroit’s Prospects, Babcock, Canadiens

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With the Detroit Red Wings still deciding on how to proceed after a disappointing season, it’s the playoff run for AHL affiliate Grand Rapids that stands as a great development tool for future prospects writes the Detroit News’ Ted Kulfan. The Griffins lead the AHL in most playoff games played (59) since 2013, and look to build upon this with a slew of young talent destined to fill the NHL roster. Yesterday’s Calder Cup playoff opener saw the Griffins drop Milwaukee 4-3, thanks to the efforts of several young players, namely Tomas Nosek and Evgeny Svechnikov. Nosek potted the overtime game winner while Svechnikov added one of his own. While it’s not the NHL, Kulfan adds that the playoff atmosphere is the perfect way to expose the younger players to the pressures that wait. Both Nosek and Svechnikov had a cup of coffee with the Wings this season, and a longer playoff run will help those two, along with the others, grow in ability as they approach a regular gig in the NHL.

  • The Toronto Sun’s Steve Simmons writes that in the midst of Buffalo’s turmoil, it was Mike Babcock’s wife who ultimately won the battle between Buffalo and Toronto for getting his services. It turns out, according to Simmons, that Mrs. Babcock’s decision was certainly a good one as Babcock has guided a young and talented Toronto roster to the playoffs (currently down 3-2 to Washington) while Tim Murray and Dan Bylsma find themselves on the unemployment line. This of course, is all interesting to look at in light of the recent developments. Simmons adds that Babcock initially preferred the Sabres’ roster to the Leafs–but ultimately chose the Leafs.
  • The New York Post’s Brett Cyrgalis reports that the Rangers plan on pushing back at the Canadiens crease crashing as they try to close out the Atlantic Division champs tonight. The Habs have put intense pressure on Rangers’ netminder Henrik Lundqvist in the paint, and the efforts should only intensify as Montreal faces elimination. The Rangers have elevated their physical play, namely defenseman Brendan Smith who fought Andrew Shaw Thursday night. But the Canadiens, for their part, are “excited” at the pressure facing them, and plan on focusing first on game six before looking too far ahead.

Snapshots: Krejci, Stevens, Stastny

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Boston’s David Krejci suffered an injury after a knee-on-knee collision with Ottawa’s Chris Wideman. He will not return to the game. There was no call on the ice, although the play easily could have drawn an infraction. The play can be viewed here. Krejci could not put much weight on his leg and looked pained as he left the ice. The Bruin had just returned from a previous, unrelated injury, and was slotted in as the 2nd line center between wingers Drew Stafford and David Backes. Krejci had tallied 54 points in the full 82 games this past season. His team is fighting to stave off elimination at the hands of the Senators, trailing 3-1 in the series. Regardless of the result of the game, there is the possibility for review for Wideman by the Department of Player Safety, especially in light of an equally scary Kadri-on-Ovechkin hit just minutes earlier in the other contest.

  • The Los Angeles Kings are reportedly close to an agreement to hire John Stevens as their new head coach. As noted by colleague Gavin Lee earlier this month, his son, captain of Northwestern (also John Stevens), has drawn interest from management. Stevens (the senior) started out his head coaching career with 6 seasons for the AHL’s Philadelphia Phantoms, culminating in a Calder Cup win in 2004-05 – a season which drew lots of interest due to the NHL lockout of that year. Stevens was promoted to head coach of the Philadelphia Flyers after the following season, serving until he was fired midway through the 2009-10 campaign. Following his firing, that Flyers team then went on to make the Finals after just barely making the post-season under Peter Laviolette. Stevens earned two Stanley Cup rings as assistant coach to Darryl Sutter during the Kings’ championship runs of 2012 and 2014, after his brief (4-game) stint as interim coach for the franchise. Stevens is known for his endearing “players’ coach” personality and rapport with developing younger players. He has an all-time record of 122-111-34 as a head NHL bench boss.
  • Help is apparently on the way for the St. Louis Blues, who still hold a commanding 3-1 lead in their series with the Minnesota Wild. Both Paul Stastny and Jori Lehtera look probable to return to competition in Game 5. Stastny has been out of action since he took a shot from a teammate off the foot a month ago. Lehtera has been out with an apparent illness since April 8th. Stastny potted 40 points in his limited 66 games this season, while Lehtera was less impressive with 22 in 64 games. Both centers will provide depth up the middle for St. Louis, and assistance on faceoffs. Considering how proficient Jake Allen has been so far these playoffs, their contributions on the defensive side of the puck will only make Minnesota’s offensive efforts even tougher. Both players posted average Corsi For just above the mid-line 50%, but each boasts a wealth of playoff experience that is difficult to replace this time of year. Stastny’s post-season consistency in particular should inspire confidence in his ability to contribute to his squad. Ivan Barbashev and Zach Sanford are expected to sit out.

*The original post had incorrectly cited Dennis Wideman as the offender*

Ovechkin Takes Hard Hit But Returns In Game 5

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Washington Capitals’ star winger Alex Ovechkin was upended in Game 5 of their series against Toronto by a Nazem Kadri hip check, who was called for tripping on the play. Ovechkin was escorted off the ice and could not put weight on his left leg. The hit can be viewed here, courtesy of NBC. He returned to the game for the second period.

Kadri attempted to lay a hip into Ovechkin as he carried the puck out of his defensive zone along the left board. Kadri succeeding in making contact with Ovechkin, but not before Ovechkin attempted to avoid the brunt of the impact by veering slightly right. The result was Ovechkin being twisted and flipped, in what looked to the officials in real time to be a knee-based trip. On the ensuing powerplay resulting from that penalty, the Capitals scored the opening goal. If the series hinges on such a call, the criticism from Toronto and Canada in general could be deafening. Notably, both Mike Milbury and Keith Jones called the hit legal during the intermission break for NBC.

Ovechkin, who is a notoriously tough, hard-nosed player, is no stranger to physicality. The winger has missed remarkably few  games over the course of his career – he only missed 4 contests in the last 3 seasons. His 33 goals in 2016-17 were his lowest total since 2013 – he had hit the 50-goal mark the previous three. However, coach Barry Trotz has consistently praised Ovechkin’s focus on defensive, all-around play this year, in hopes his change in style would lead to a championship run. Ovechkin has been one of the greatest playoff performers for a Washington team that has consistently struggled to find success in the post-season. His 44 goals in 88 games places him 16th all time in playoff goals per game, with the closest contemporary player on the list being Phil Kessel (at 20th). Considering his Capitals have never made it past the second-round during his career, this statistic is made even more impressive.

Ovechkin surprisingly returned to the game for the second period, in apparent game shape. His return was not anticipated by most analysts, and hockey fans everywhere exhaled a sigh of relief for the health of one of the game’s greatest players. His availability beyond this contest is unknown, but this is the time of year players will play through injuries.

Cap Problems Loom – A Look Ahead For Chicago

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The Chicago Blackhawks’ management will have to take a deep, long look in the mirror this off-season. Their core is locked up and in their primes. With an offense boasting Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, grizzled Marian Hossa, and a resurgent Artem Anisimov, there were many predictions around the league for Chicago to reclaim another cup. Instead, the comparatively deep lineup Nashville iced completely dominated Chicago, sending them packing in a 4 game sweep – the first ever time an “8th seed” has swept a “1 seed”.

This is an analysis of Chicago’s cap frustrations, and what has led to them.

Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane each account for $10.5 MM towards the team cap, and are both under contract until the 2022-23 season. With a cap ceiling that is expected to remain in the ballpark of its current $73 MM, this is a massive $21 MM, 28.8% of the team total. In past seasons, contributions from players on ELCs and cheap one-to-two year deals made this issue far less concerning. Success will do a lot to mask poor planning on management’s part.

Looking at their roster situation next year, the squad looks something like this (numbers represent $MM towards cap):

Nick Schmaltz (0.925) – Jonathan Toews (10.5) – Marian Hossa (5.275)

Artemi Panarin (6.0) – Artem Anisimov (4.550) – Patrick Kane (10.5)

Dennis Rasmussen (RFA) – Marcus Kruger (3.083) – Richard Panik (RFA)

Ryan Hartman (0.863) – Tanner Kero (0.750) – __________

*******

 

Nik Hjalmarsson (4.1) – Duncan Keith (5.538)

Brent Seabrook (6.875) – Trevor van Riemsdyk (0.825)

Michal Kempny (RFA) – Gustav Forsling (0.873)

************

Michal Roszival (0.650)

 

Corey Crawford (6.0)

_________

 

A few things to note: there are still 4 likely vacancies on this roster, and the team would probably prefer to have at least one more extra skater on hand for the season. Before the RFA contracts are negotiated, this comes to a total of $67.307 MM already spent. Brian Campbell and Johnny Oduya are not likely to return, considering the former’s price and the latter’s struggles. Roszival is not likely to be trusted with 7th defenseman duties. With Panik’s stellar season, he is nearly sure to command a sizable raise. The 26 year-old had what can only be described an incredibly over-achieving breakthrough – he notched 44 points, 22 of which were goals. The expectation should be that, even under team-friendly RFA negotiations, he will earn upwards of $2 MM, likely in the $2.5 MM range. Assuming the other two RFAs (Rasmussen and Kempny) receive somewhere around $1 MM each, this brings the grand total to $71.807 MM with at least 3 slots to fill, probably 4.

From here, Chicago could go one of two routes. They could try to fill out the remaining spots with the absolutely cheapest possible players, and hope they strike gold with another prospect or free agent. They went down this road last year, and one could reasonably assume they may not have liked the results. The other option would be to move a sizable contract out in the name of increased depth. A few options would be Seabrook or Hjalmarrson on the back-end, or perhaps Hossa up front. Although the captain’s relative cost efficiency is arguably not good, I don’t see a scenario where the Windy City management would be willing to move on from Toews. Anisimov’s play and chemistry with Kane at a cheap 2C price-tag make him unlikely to be moved, and Kruger was just signed to a cost-efficient deal.

It should be noted that if Chicago would be (for whatever reason) unable to move a contract, they could opt to leave a player unprotected for Vegas to take. This is not a likely scenario, however. Many believe that van Riemsdyk will be left unprotected, but exposing such a cheap and effective youngster seems counter-productive at this point. The problem with ditching Seabrook or Hjalmarrson is that it opens up a huge hole that is not likely to be filled much cheaper – top 4 defensemen don’t come cheap, especially considering this year’s limited UFA class. Hossa, it should be noted, has a No Movement Clause, which would severely complicate any sort of transaction involving the veteran winger.

Decisions lie aheaad for Chicago management, and the decisions may be even tougher than they were after their Cup win in 2010. That off-season, they were forced into moving Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, and Kris Versteeg. Those tough decisions laid the groundwork for their next two titles. This is the cost of success in the post-cap era, and Chicago will again need to make sacrifices if they wish to see any more.

Predator Power: The Potential Upset That Should Shock No One

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Just yesterday, I wrote an article describing the ability of the Wild to come back in their series down 0-2. No one should doubt that the Blackhawks are entirely capable of achieving the same against the Predators. The question is whether they will.

The Predators were perhaps the most overlooked team this post-season, with nearly all analysts picking the Blackhawks to take the series rather easily. This is particularly odd because offensively, the teams were practically indistinguishable (at 2.43 GF60 and 2.42 GF60 respectively). At 5 on 5, the Predators only scored 5 less goals all season long. Down the home stretch of the season, the Predators won their last 4 while the Blackhawks went winless. Although both teams have had an increase in overall offense compared to last season, Nashville had less of a drastic up-hike, suggesting less deviation from the expected output. The Predators are also far less top heavy than the Hawks – their scoring is more evenly stretched out across their lineup and not concentrated around four particular players. The Hawks’ fourth line is noteworthy in how uninspiring it is –  Jordin Tootoo and John Hayden usually average 8 and 11 minutes a piece. Finally, Pekka Rinne had a historically bad season by his standards in 2015-16 (in which the Predators took the Western Conference champs to a Game 7) – but he has returned to form in a big way this season, with a respectable (if unremarkable) .918 save percentage.

Then there’s the defense – the Blackhawks have shown signs of weakness. Duncan Keith had a solid showing, but not his Norris standard. His Corsi For was his worst since his rookie season at 50.7%  – he has trended around 54%. Niklas Hjalmarsson and Brent Seabrook have also had down seasons, Seabrook at 50%, and Hjalmarsson at 45%. After these three defenders there is a massive gap in talent. Part of the reason that these top three are having a difficult time is because they have had to log massive amounts of minutes against top players. Both Johnny Oduya and Brian Campbell have struggled to log the minutes of years past, and both have faced lower quality of competition. Each has averaged around 18 minutes of ice and it doesn’t seem like Joel Quenneville is particularly confident in putting them out there in all situations these playoffs. Trevor van Reimsdyk has performed admirably in his role, but has yet to be a positive player in a post-season year.  Even against Keith, the speed of the Predators’ forwards has created fits and frantic backpedaling. With how dominant Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and crew have looked, it is more than fair to draw comparisons.

Ultimately, the Blackhawks need to score in order to advance. Peter Laviolette has the Predators rolling as a fine-tuned forecheck machine, and Chicago seems to have been shell-shocked. Their zone time in the most recent game was frankly horrible. The 5-0 obliteration was a natural continuation of the frustrated offense the Hawks experienced in the first game, and it seems apparent that whatever game-planning occurred between the two matches fell far short of the mark. Shots were constantly blocked by the Preds and the ones that got through were not dangerous. The amount of hype that preceded Chicago headed into these playoffs was largely unwarranted – they didn’t dominate any advanced stat and only won the division by a slight margin, while their top players looked far less dynamic than the previous year. But let us not discount the effort and depth of the Predators. On paper, this isn’t a roster that is star-studded or wonderfully exciting, but they have been constructed well for playoff hockey and now have the experience to close a series. Their third line has performed well above expectations and their top guns are firing away. Underestimating this squad would be a deadly error for any team, no matter how many cups they’ve won in years past.

AHL Releases First Round Playoff Schedule

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The AHL has released the schedule for the first round of its Calder Cup Playoffs. Lots of squads are down top players with so many parent clubs still in contention, so the first round is always ripe with upsets. The schedule can be found here.

The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins had the league’s best record, and looks to have their best opportunity at a championship since their inception. Out West, the Chicago Wolves have gone from out of the playoffs and potential loss of affiliate to a dominant 1st seed performance. The action starts on Thursday, April 20th. The first round of semifinals includes a full 16 teams, but the series are only 5 games long.

The quality of play in the AHL only gets better as the years go by, and every hockey fan owes it to him/herself to catch a local playoff game when possible. Future stars and intriguing prospects can be caught up close and personal before they make an impact in the show. In terms of who to keep an eye out for:

San Jose – Daniel O’Regan (C) – 23G 35A

Stockton – Mark Jankowski (C) – 27G 29A

Chicago – Kenny Agostino (LW) – 24G 59A

Hershey – Christian Djoos (D) – 13G 45A

Wilkes-Barre – Casey DeSmith – .926 SV% 2.01 GAA

Providence – Zane McIntyre – .930 SV% 2.03 GAA

Toronto’s Roman Polak Out For Playoffs

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Toronto’s Roman Polak suffered a brutal hit at the hands of Washington’s Brooks Orpik. Polak attempted to sidestep the brunt of the hit and ended up with severe knee-on-knee contact. Worse, when Polak landed, his stricken right knee buckled and caught under the weight of his body. Polak remained down on the ice in gut-wrenching pain for well over a minute before being helped off the ice by players. TSN reports that Polak will no longer be available for Toronto in these playoffs, which throws a massive question mark onto the team’s backend.

Polak has not been a particularly phenomenal defenseman in terms of analytics this season. His physical play and ability to stay healthy have arguably been his greatest assets to the team. His Corsi For % – simply, shot attempts for versus against when he is on the ice – is an abysmal 41% on the season. For reference, Jake Gardiner’s is 52.6%, Morgan Rielly’s is 50.4%, the injured Nikita Zaitsev’s is 49.4%, and Matt Hunwick’s is 49.1%. Each of the aforementioned Leafs have definitely contributed to leading the team back into the post-season. Toronto was a dismal 23rd in Goals Allowed this season, but notably better than the previous, where they were 28th, surpassed only by Calgary (who inexplicably made the playoffs that year) and Edmonton who were McDavid-less for a long stretch of time.

Toronto needs to keep pucks out of the net against the high-octane offense of Washington if they are to win this series. So far in the series, Babcock’s defensive strategies have been relatively effective. They held even in hits with Washington through a double overtime game – 50 a piece. They blocked 35 shots in Game 2, and forced plays to the outside whenever possible. And when the chances became glorious, Frederik Andersen was there to shut the play down. Although they surrendered 44 shots and 50 shots in each respective game, many of these chances did not come from high-scoring areas. In a series where Toronto’s defense was expected to be overwhelmed, they have held fast in the absence of Zaitsev. Still, Leafs’ fans are longing for his quick return to play in hopes of taking advantage of the next two raucous home games at the Air Canada Centre. The 23-year-old Connor Carrick and 25-year-old Martin Marincin both look capable of filling some of the void left by Polak – they each averaged over 16 minutes per game in the regular season.

Minnesota And The Wild Art Of The 0-2 Comeback

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The Minnesota Wild are in a predicament. They have out-shot their opponent 76-53 through 137 minutes of hockey, created the majority of the scoring chances, and dominated advanced stats. But they are down 0-2 in their series, largely due to the heroics of St. Louis net-minder Jake Allen. Per Elias Sports, teams that go down in a series 2-0 only have a 14.1% chance of winning the series. After all, winning 4 of 5 after is no simple task. This is only made more difficult by the fact that Minnesota lost its home ice advantage and has to split in St. Louis to avoid a sweep.

In Minnesota’s current situation, the main contributing factor to the struggles is a snakebitten offensive core. A few players have been on cold streaks, including captain Mikko Koivu who hasn’t scored in his last 16. Perhaps more important is the strength of St. Louis defense over the last 10 games, only surrendering 21 goals. In order for Minnesota to regain a foothold, one of these trends will need to reverse. A goal per game, even against a prime Patrick Roy, simply isn’t good enough.

All over but the crying, right? Well, not quite. Although a 14.1% chance sounds like a longshot, there are more factors to success than one might consider. PDO can really only trend upwards from here, and the bounces are far more likely to turn than not. There is due reason to suspect the unlikely. Minnesota is intimately familiar with the back of the twine – they finished only 2 behind Pittsburgh at 183 Goals For on the season, despite a roster with far fewer superstar names. Devan Dubnyk actually had a better season than Jake Allen 5v5, and is certainly capable of stealing a game of his own. And St. Louis has had wild swings of fortune just as often as Minnesota has. Minnesota, evidenced by a wonderful Wilderness writeup, was indeed beginning to trend back upward. The team stumbled mightily through early March, but recovered quite nicely in the home stretch – winning their last 4 games in convincing fashion.  By their relatively dominant, but ultimately fruitless, on-ice performances in the first 2 games, one might believe these successes were not aberrations.

If we discount the overblown importance of home ice advantage in modern hockey, the situation seems far more salvageable than many observers might believe. As Bruce Boudreau said, “it’s not as dire as they think.” They just should be sure to win the next one.

Over The Glass: Delay Of Game Penalties And Unintended Consequences

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Ever since returning from the lockout season of 2004-05, the league has enacted a wide array of rules with the sole aim of increasing goal totals. In the season of return, the league did away with the two-line pass rule in hopes of allowing more odd-man rushes. Penalties automatically brought the impending draw in front of the offending team’s net. Icings would not allow the offending team to make a change in players, resulting in tired defenders. The NHL created a delay-of-game infraction for shooting the puck over the glass in the defensive zone, regardless of intent, as to increase power plays. Additionally, the league instituted a trapezoid of playable area behind the net for goaltenders, apparently to destroy Martin Brodeur’s dreams of a 20-goal season.

Each of these rules is well-known, and to a new generation of hockey fans, widely accepted as the norm. Hockey has undoubtedly undergone numerous rule alterations since its early inception in Canada, as the roving 6th skater and backward-only passes have long since gone extinct in the name of excitement and simplicity. There is certainly no argument that all rule changes are detrimental – quite the contrary. However, there is undoubtedly a beauty to the game as it exists right now, which is the argument to which many purists adhere. Conversely, the golden scoring era of the 1980s is looked upon with reverence and extreme fondness, for all of its faults and shortcomings in parity and defensive play. Neither extreme fully or honestly represents the counterpoints to his position, and the result is a constant struggle between old-school and new-school, conservative and radical.

In Game 2 of the Ottawa-Boston series earlier this evening, a delay-of-game penalty was called against Zdeno Chara for clearing the puck over the glass with 12 seconds remaining in regulation. Ottawa’s Dion Phaneuf didn’t score on the ensuing powerplay in overtime, but did shortly thereafter, and largely a result of that powerplay’s momentum. The scene is one that was all-too-familiar – nearly any fan can recount a horror story resulting from this rule’s implementation. Pittsburgh nearly suffered a death blow last playoffs when they were forced into overtime following three of these infractions in a row. Although no fan is dissatisfied to see their own squad on the powerplay, the rule feels slightly unjustified and slightly tainted. For all intents and purposes, clearing the puck over the glass effectively achieves the same end as icing the puck. Not allowing line changes seems fair punishment to players who would opt to take the easy route after being hemmed in their own zone. Applying a two-minute penalty, regardless of the intent, seems frivolous and irrational.

It seems only a matter of time before a pivotal series is determined solely by this sort of inadvertent mishap.

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