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Pacific Notes: Chiarelli, Haula, Tanev

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The Edmonton Oilers have been a team that has languished in mediocrity the last couple of years until the team fired head coach Doug McLellan and replaced him with Ken Hitchock. Since then the team seems almost unbeatable as the Oilers have produced a 9-2-2 record under the veteran head coach. Much of that credit might fall to general manager Peter Chiarelli.

With the sudden success of the team, The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman (subcription required) interviewed Oilers’ CEO and vice-chair of Oilers Entertainment Group Bob Nicholson, who stated emphatically that if Edmonton makes the playoffs, Chiarelli’s job is safe.

“Yeah. There’s no question,” Nicholson. “I think there’s a lot of things that Peter hasn’t gotten credit for. He’s really started to build. You’re starting to see some of them come up now with the [Caleb] Joneses and the [Evan] Bouchards. We have a lot of assets, which this organization hadn’t had for a while. Peter deserves a lot of credit for that.”

Chiarelli has been highly criticized over the years after being hired in 2015, which included trading No. 1 overall pick Taylor Hall to New Jersey for defenseman Adam Larsson. He also made a few questionable acquisitions, including signing Milan Lucic to a seven-year, $42MM deal, which already looks like an albatross of a contract as there are still five years remaining, while Lucic is playing more of a bottom-six role for the team. Chiarelli also traded the team’s first and second-round picks to the New York Islanders for defenseman Griffin Reinhart, who played just 29 NHL games and is mired in the AHL for the Vegas Golden Knights. That first-round pick turned out to be Mathew Barzal.

However, the addition of Hitchcock and the signing of goaltender Mikko Koskinen have looked like solid moves this season. If the Oilers can continue on their torrid pace, Chiarelli may have done enough to stay on for a while longer.

  • While Vegas Golden Knights’ Erik Haula was listed as “month-to-month” a month ago, Las Vegas Review-Journal’s David Schoen reports that general manager George McPhee admitted that Haula actually had surgery in November after suffering the lower-body injury after being driven into the boards by Toronto Maple Leafs’ Patrick Marleau on Nov. 6. “He did have surgery,” McPhee said, who added that the injury was not an ACL injury. “It’s a unique injury.” McPhee has no timetable on Haula’s injury and wouldn’t even speculate as to whether last year’s 30-goal scorer would return for the regular season or even the playoffs. “It’s really hard to know,” McPhee said. “It’s going to be some months, but we don’t know because it’s just such a different injury than any of us have seen before.”
  • It’s possible that the Vancouver Canucks have waited too long to move defenseman Chris Tanev as a trade chip. According to Harman Dayal in The Athletic (subscription required), Tanev’s value has fallen quite a bit in the last few weeks and may not be a tradeable asset anymore. It’s believed that his inability to stay healthy is one problem and even though Tanev has played in 29 games this year, there are rumors that he’s hurt now and isn’t playing at his usual level of play. Whether his underwhelming play is a result of playing injured or rapidly declining play, it’s unlikely that Tanev could bring in anything back in value at the moment.

Kings’ Jeff Carter Linked To Boston Bruins

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When one national writer connects a contending team with a trade candidate, it’s simply speculation. When three link the two in the span of a few days, there is usually something to it. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman suggested that the Boston Bruins could be a possible destination for Los Angeles Kings veteran center Jeff Carter in his latest “31 Thoughts” segment. The same day, The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa published an entire piece on Carter’s ideal fit in Boston. His colleague, Craig Custance, also wrote about how the best blueprint for a rebuild in L.A. could be to emulate the Bruins, who recouped picks and young players in 2015 by trading away Milan Lucic and Dougie Hamilton, but largely leaving their core intact. This time around, could Carter be in Lucic’s shoes with the Bruins and Kings swapping roles? It’s looking like a real possibility.

The logic behind a Carter deal is obvious for the Kings. L.A. sits in last place in the NHL, with just 24 points through 33 games. The team is far older than they would like to be given their struggles and, as Custance suggests, would benefit greatly from moving out a handful of veterans to inject youth and potential into the roster along with a solid core of Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty, and Jonathan Quick. It is no surprise that TSN’s most recent Trade Bait list features Kings defenseman Jake Muzzin at No. 2, Carter at No. 5, and Alec Martinez at No. 16. Although Carter, still a capable offensive player, has three years remaining on his contract beyond this season at a remarkably reasonable $5.27MM cap hit and even lower salary, he is also 33 years old and is unlikely to improve in the years it could take for L.A. to return to the postseason. The Kings would be able to add some impressive young pieces in exchange for Carter, kick-starting their rebuild. TSN’s Frank Servalli warns that Carter could use the threat of retirement to decide on his destination, but he would be unlikely to turn down the opportunity to end his career with a contender like Boston.

However, does the deal make sense for the Bruins? Obviously, the first aspect worth noting is Boston’s depth down the middle. Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, while aging themselves, are still playing at an elite level and are both signed long-term. Adding Carter would give the Bruins three centers age 32 or older signed through at least the 2020-21 season. The Bruins would have the gauge the asking price on Carter against the fact that he would most likely be their third-line center. Yet, this alone doesn’t rule out a Carter trade. Shinzawa notes that Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, while improving, is not yet ready for prime time match-ups as the anchor of his own line. Carter would be a very helpful addition in the short-term, especially as the Bruins square off against the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning and their equally impressive depth down the middle. Carter playing alongside a young winger like Ryan Donato or Danton Heinen could be a dangerous combo this season and beyond. If and when Forsbacka Karlsson – or Trent Frederic, Jack Studnicka, or Jakub Lauko – looks ready to take on a regular role over the next few years, the right-shooting Carter could also slide to the wing, where the Bruins have yet to identify a long-term option next to Krejci and Jake DeBrusk. 

The Bruins could find a way to make a talent like Carter’s work, but the cost will likely dictate whether or not a deal gets done. If Carter is playing the Lucic role in Custance’s proposed role reversal, the Kings would likely land a strong if unspectacular return. Lucic had just one year remaining on his contract as opposed to Carter’s three, but was younger and healthier and expected to play a top-line role in L.A. The Bruins received a first-round pick, established backup goaltender Martin Jones (who they flipped to San Jose), and standout AHL defenseman Colin Miller in exchange for Lucic. The Kings don’t need a young goaltender, nor do the Bruins have much to offer in that department. Boston will also be hesitant to move a first-round pick after forfeiting that pick last year in the Rick Nash trade. However, the Kings need scoring and the Bruins have a plethora of young forwards. Heinen could fill the Jones role of an established young NHLer, although the Kings could instead ask for Donato or Anders Bjork, while one of the team’s prospect centers could be substituted for the first-rounder and Jeremy Lauzon or Jakub Zboril could play the part of Miller. Anything more than that package of three talented young players would probably be a deal-breaker for GM Don Sweeney and company, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the combination gets a deal done.

With a seemingly sensible fit on both sides and several major pundits pedaling the rumor, this isn’t the last of Carter-to-Boston speculation. However, the Bruins have also been linked to Carter’s teammate Tyler Toffoli, the Minnesota Wild’s Charlie Coyle, and the New York Rangers’ Kevin Hayes and Mats Zuccarello, yet no move has been made. There is no guarantee that Boston is looking to make a move right now, but as the season wears on these names will only continue to pop up until the Bruins inevitably make a move in pursuit of the Stanley Cup.

Milan Lucic Receives Fine From Department Of Player Safety

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2:53pm: Lucic has been fined $10,000, the maximum allowable under the CBA. The Oilers power forward will avoid suspension, though this incident will be taken into account for any further disciplinary decisions.

11:08am: The Department of Player Safety has more work scheduled for this week, as Darren Dreger of TSN reports there be a phone hearing for Milan Lucic following the incident last night in Tampa Bay. Lucic, angered by the lack of penalty or penance for a hit from behind earlier in the game, followed Lightning forward Mathieu Joseph around the ice before eventually landing a big hit away from the puck and attacking him on the ice. The incident led to both lines coming together in the corner, with players like Darnell Nurse and Alex Killorn getting involved.

Lucic, 30, is likely feeling some added frustration given his struggles this season. The power forward has just one goal and four points in his first 15 games, a far cry from the expectations that came with his seven-year $42MM contract. His offensive numbers plummeted last season to a total of just 10 goals, and things haven’t changed for him despite several opportunities alongside Edmonton’s best players.

Despite still being a powerful physical force, Lucic has turned into something of an anchor for an Oilers team that wants to play with much more pace. His $6MM cap hit is troublesome given the other huge commitments Edmonton has made to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and it part of the reason the team is pressed right up against the salary ceiling without many secondary scoring threats. A suspension would only serve to further suppress any production from Lucic, though he doesn’t have a long history with the league despite his physical play. He has been suspended before, but not for several years and never for more than one game at a time.

Pacific Notes: Gibson, Tuch, Eriksson, Thornton

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The Anaheim Ducks know they can’t keep relying on the play of goaltender John Gibson, who has saved the team with his impressive play. Most recently Gibson sustained a 44-shot performance on Saturday (many of which were high-danger shots) against the Golden Knights, who walked away with a 3-1 win. Gibson wasn’t thrilled with the team’s inability to keep those shots down, according to The Athletic’s Josh Cooper (subscription required).

“I think we just need to be better. It’s getting old,” Gibson said with a little smirk after the 3-1 loss where he made 42 saves and his team managed just 18 shots on goal. “You see the game. You can see what we’re doing. It’s pretty self explanatory. We’re not playing to the level that I think we’re capable of playing and I think we’re just being too satisfied with just being average.”

Anaheim remains in first place in the Pacific Division at 5-2-1, but are dead last in the NHL in shots allowed as they have yielded an average of 37.0 shots per game. Gibson has been able to protect the team with his play as he boasts a .949 save percentage in his seven appearances and has a 1.91 GAA so far, but it’s unlikely he can keep that up.

“We’re not playing the right way,” coach Randy Carlyle said. “We’re loose in coverage and we’re not competitive enough and when you’re not competitive enough it means they’re starting with the puck and winning more of those battles and they have the puck more than you do.”

  • The Vegas Golden Knights finally got winger Alex Tuch back on the ice Sunday as the practiced with the team in a non-contact sweater, according to Las Vegas Review-Journal’s David Schoen. Tuch, who just signed a seven-year, $33.25MM contract, hasn’t appeared in a game for Vegas this season. The 22-year-old has been out since Sept. 30 with an injury. With that new deal in hand, The Athletic’s Jesse Granger (subscription required) wonders how good Tuch can actually be, considering the team only has his rookie season’s numbers of 15 goals and 37 points, which mostly had him on the team’s third line. The 6-foot-4, 220-pounder is great at getting into the corners and doing the dirty work and the scribe compares him to a young Milan Lucic, who also put up similar numbers as a rookie and eventually become a consistent 20-goal scorer for years. “We’re expecting him to get better every year, and we’re expecting big things from him this year and he should be back soon,” coach Gerard Gallant said. “He’s a good young player but he has to keep getting better. He’s not elite yet. He’s far from elite, and we want him to get to be elite someday.”
  • With no goals in eight games, there has been quite a bit of criticism that has been thrown at Vancouver Canucks winger Loui Eriksson, the team’s highest paid player at $6MM per year. Regardless head coach Travis Green vigorously defended his veteran forward on Saturday, according to TSN’s Jeff Patterson. “He’s second on our team in 5-on-5 points and second in plus-minus and it’s seven games, not 50,” said Green. “He’s on the second power-play unit and not the first. He has done some good things and it’s not just about goals with Loui. There a lots of guys I want more out of and if I say I want more out of Loui, everyone is up in arms about it. I thought he was playing good with Elias Pettersson. He was good defensively and does some subtle things that people don’t notice — nor does he get recognition for – and I’m not worried about Eriksson, I can tell you that.”
  • The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz reports that center Joe Thornton remains day-to-day after he was placed on injured reserve due to swelling in his surgically repaired knee. However, the 39-year-old is expected to travel with the team for their upcoming three-game road trip. “I don’t know if he’ll play or not,” said Sharks coach Peter DeBoer. Thornton, however, said he hopes to play this week.

Oilers Notes: Criticism, Nurse, Lucic

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TSN insider Bob McKenzie has begun previewing the 2018-19 seasons for the NHL’s Canadian clubs on his podcast, “The Bobcast”, and dropped some bombs about the Edmonton Oilers. McKenzie most newsworthy claim is that the Oilers have been criticized by executives around the league for failing to reach the postseason last year. McKenzie was honest in his assessment of the team, saying “I think the way most people look at it, every year you have a Connor McDavid-led team that misses the playoffs, that is a crime against hockey humanity. I think that would be especially true this season after they didn’t do it last season… McDavid’s game is on its own level and it would be absolutely criminal if the Edmonton Oilers cannot find a way to surround him with enough talent to get this team back into the playoffs.” McKenzie, and anyone who has been critical of the team, are absolutely in the right to wonder how a team with arguably the best player on the planet can not only miss the playoffs, but finish in the bottom ten of the league. It is also fair to question, as McKenzie did, whether the team has done enough to add more talent to the roster. Outside of backup goalie Mikko Koskinen, two-way winger Tobias Rieder, and checking center Kyle Brodziak, the Oilers are more or less relying on the same group as last season to put together a major turnaround. Even with some positive regression, Edmonton will need to step it up this season – the players, coaches, and front office included.

  • McKenzie also put Edmonton fans on edge by blowing up the narrative that negotiations were going well with restricted free agent defenseman Darnell Nurse. “By all accounts Nurse’s contract negotiations are not going well at all”, McKenzie said, “so we’ll just have to wait and see on that.” Nurse remains unsigned with training camp soon to open and there is no way to know how long it will take to get him under contract. Even before the Andrej Sekera injury, the Oilers needed Nurse around to play a key role on the blue line, but now it is imperative that they get him signed and ready to be a major top-four contributor this season. Edmonton can’t afford to let these negotiations last too far into the regular season, but their cap crunch and messy trade history also mean that they need to remain cautious. It isn’t an easy situation for the team or player.
  • McKenzie also refuted the report that Milan Lucic never requested a trade this summer, returning to the previous assumption that he did want out of Edmonton. McKenzie said “Can Milan Lucic rebound from an abysmal season that was punctuated by him asking for a trade, one which he didn’t get? If you talk to the right people by all accounts his mind, his spirit, his body are all fully ready to embrace the challenge.” While this was one of McKenzie’s more positive remarks, it does throw another dig at the Oilers that one of GM Peter Chiarelli’s big free agent acquisitions not only played poorly last season, but now wants out. Perhaps Lucic walking back trade rumors earlier this summer is a sign that he has moved on, but that interest in leaving existed at one point and could return if Edmonton suffers through another disappointing season.

Pacific Notes: Toffoli, Giordano, Goldobin, Pettersson

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While the Los Angeles Kings did add Ilya Kovalchuk to their roster and have a healthy dose of veterans around, one key for the Kings will be whether the team can get Tyler Toffoli to show off more of his offensive prowess. The 26-year-old rebounded from a 13-goal season in 2016-17 to post a 24-goal season, but that’s still a far cry from the 31-goal season back in 2015-16 when he was considered one of the upcoming goal scorers in the league.

The Athletic’s Lisa Dillman (subscription required) writes that Toffoli feels that the team and especially coach John Stevens feel that it’s time for him to take that next step in his development.

“He obviously wants me to score more goals,” Toffoli said. “He said I didn’t have a bad season. Scoring 24 goals is not bad. He thinks that’s just something I need to focus on, bearing down on opportunities and not worrying about having the ups and downs.”

Many feel that Toffoli struggled over the last couple of years due to the lack of having Milan Lucic in 2016-17 as well as a healthy Jeff Carter playing alongside him last season. However, consistency has also been a problem as he tallied 11 goals in the first two months of the season and then struggled at different times to put numbers up, including one goal in January and just three goals in the Kings’ final 18 games, including going scoreless in the playoffs.

  • The Athletic’s Scott Kruikshank (subscription required) looks into the fitness level of Calgary Flames defenseman Mark Giordano. The team’s top defender just turned 34 and remains in the best shape of his career. Giordano’s conditioning is one of the main reasons for his success. He has ranked first, first, first and second (last year to Michael Frolik) over the last four camps, despite his age. “I want to keep my speed as I get older,” Giordano says. “So I do a lot of strengthening of my hips and groins, working on some ankle-mobility stuff. Little things to keep my skating up to par. Speed and conditioning are the two things I like to focus on the most. But you need that strength out there, too.”
  • Jason Brough of The Athletic (subscription required) wonders who will win the final spot on the Vancouver Canucks first line with Brock Boeser and Bo Horvat. The scribe says the team has three candidates in mind for that final spot, including veteran Sven Baertschi as well as Brendan Leipsic and Nikolay Goldobin. While Baertschi might sound like a logical candidate as he got some time with them last season, Brough wonders whether the team is giving every opportunity to Goldobin or Leipsic to seize the spot, which would allow Baertschi to play on the second line. The team has been hoping Goldobin, in particular, is capable of breaking out this season. He tallied eight goals in 38 games last season.
  • The Vancouver Canucks got a flash of their upcoming future when top prospects Elias Pettersson and Jonathan Dahlen combined for three goals, three assists in Friday’s first game of the Young Stars Classic, according to Ed Willes of the Vancouver Sun. The two Swedes showed a chemistry together that suggests they could play together for a long time. Pettersson potted two goals, while Dahlen added a third. The two played together for parts of three years in the Timra system.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Boston Bruins

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Boston Bruins

Current Projected Cap Hit: $76,540,667 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry Level Contracts

D Charlie McAvoy (one year, $917K)
D Brandon Carlo (one year, $789K)
F Jake DeBrusk (two years, $863K)
F Danton Heinen (one year, $873K)
F Ryan Donato (one year, $900K)
F Anders Bjork (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses:

McAvoy: $500K
DeBrusk: $425K
Heinen: $213K
Donato: $850K

Total: $1.99MM

Under $5.5MM in salary and under $2MM in potential bonuses for that group of players? It would be hard to find any team in the league who wouldn’t be excited about that scenario. Carlo has played a top four role for the Bruins for two seasons already and McAvoy asserted himself not only as the top defenseman on the team as a rookie last year, but one of the best defenders in the league; they’re both just beginning to show what they can be. The other four forwards will likely make up the bulk of the top nine in Boston this season. Heinen and DeBrusk finished fourth and sixth respectively among Bruins forwards in scoring last year, each with 40+ points, and noticeably improved as the season wore on. Bjork began the year in the top six and scored at a pace that would have put him at 30+ points on the year, if not for a roster crunch and later on an injury that kept him out of the lineup for much of the year. The latest addition is Donato, who joined the team down the stretch after leading both the NCAA and Winter Olympics in goals per game. If the Bruins’ top prospect finds chemistry with a scoring line and earns substantial ice time, he could be a legitimate Calder Trophy threat.

Of course, the caveat to all of this is that the Bruins can only enjoy most of these bargain deals for one more year. All but DeBrusk and Bjork will be due extensions by this time next year. McAvoy is in line for an expensive, long-term contract that could easily surpass the six-year, $29.7MM contract just recently signed by the Calgary Flames’ Noah Hanifin. Carlo will be due a much more modest raise, but a raise nonetheless. The real intrigue lies with Heinen and Donato. If Heinen is again the best non-first line forward on the Bruins this season, he will have cemented himself as a crucial piece of the core and will be able to command a hefty bump in salary. A regression and being overshadowed by other young forward could keep his next cap hit at a more comfortable level. The same goes for Donato, who could meet his lofty expectations as a rookie and significantly raise his asking price or could fail to stand out against Boston’s other young forwards and sign a more modest second contract. Perhaps even the Bruins don’t know which outcome they would prefer: their impending RFA’s playing incredibly well and boosting their value or instead playing secondary roles and staying reasonably priced? Either way, the team will at least be glad to have DeBrusk and other incoming prospects at ELC cap hits in 2019-20.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry Level

D Zdeno Chara ($5MM, UFA)
D Adam McQuaid ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Noel Acciari ($725K, UFA)

Not much is going to change on the Bruins roster between 2018-19 and 2019-20 if unrestricted free agency is any indicator. Given how few current players are impending unrestricted free agents and the number and value of the likely RFA contracts that they will need to hand out, it will probably be a quiet summer in Boston next year.

Of this group, the one departure that seems certain is McQuaid. As it stands now, McQuaid might not only be a bench player for the Bruins this season but could even be considered the team’s #8 defenseman and very well could land on the trade block or even waivers over the course of the campaign. The loyal veteran is one of the remaining holdovers from the team’s 2011 Stanley Cup title and has only ever played hard-nosed, competent hockey in Boston. However, frequent injuries paired with the development of Kevan Miller into a better version of McQuaid has all but made the original superfluous. Now, Boston may not carry eight defenseman all season long and if someone other than McQuaid is traded, that would open up some more opportunity for the physical veteran. However, it still seems that – given the players signed on the blue line as it is and the crop of prospects in Providence (AHL) pushing for play time – that McQuaid’s days in Boston are numbered one way or another.

Counting the days until Chara retires may be a pointless effort, though. The 41-year-old continues to defy nature in every regard. Chara led all Boston skaters in ice time with 23 minutes per night and has been the team’s average ice-time leader for a whopping twelve years straight. While his offense remains in decline, his defensive game made a major comeback last season and the league’s oldest defenseman even garnered Norris Trophy votes. In all likelihood, the Bruins will look to reduce Chara’s role this year in an effort to make him even more effective in limited minutes. If that proves successful, don’t be surprised to see Boston give Chara incentive-laden one-year contracts until he finally decides to hand up his skates. At this rate, it could be another year or two after this current contract expires.

Some may discount what spark plug Acciari brings to the Bruins and consider his impending free agency to not be much of a factor. Yet, Acciari is considered by many to be one of the more underrated defensive forwards in the league. A versatile player and punishing checker, Acciari is an ideal fourth-liner who frustrates the opposition without landing in penalty trouble or ending up on the wrong side of turnovers. Acciari logged 152 hits last season versus just four minor penalty minutes and recorded 20 takeaways to just nine giveaways. Few players in the league are so efficient with their defensive play. Acciari is a local product who fits the style and culture of the Bruins well and could certainly wind up with a multi-year extension. With that said, the Bruins’ addition of Chris Wagner this summer adds a lot of the same ability that Acciari brings to the table. If cap space or roster space becomes an issue, Acciari is not guaranteed a new contract.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $75,521,166 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jesse Puljujarvi (one year, $925K)
F Kailer Yamamoto (three years, $894K)
D Ethan Bear (two years, $798K)

Potential Bonuses

Yamamoto: $230K
Puljujarvi: $2.5MM
Bear: $70K

Total: $2.8MM

One major need is for the Oilers to get some help from their young players. Perhaps the most intruiging prospect is Puljujarvi, the team’s fourth-overall pick in 2016. After struggling in his rookie season, Puljujarvi showed some promise last year, scoring 12 goals in 65 games, but the 20-year-old still hasn’t proved that he can be a top-six winger yet. Regardless, the Oilers have resisted trading the prospect as they have received quite a bit of attention from other teams. Yamamoto also struggled in a early-season tryout last season as he played in nine games (tallying just three assists) before being sent back to juniors. However, after scoring 21 goals in 40 games with the WHL’s Spokane Chiefs, the speedy Yamamoto might be ready to claim a spot on Edmonton’s roster this season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Cam Talbot ($4.17MM, UFA)
G Mikko Koskinen ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Tobias Rieder ($2MM, RFA)
G Al Montoya ($1.03MM, UFA)
D Jakub Jerabek ($1MM, UFA)
F Ty Rattie ($800K, RFA)
D Kevin Gravel ($700K, UFA)
F Jujhar Khaira ($675K, RFA)
F Pontus Aberg ($650K, RFA)

The team has many decisions to make with their goaltending next season. All three goaltenders are on one-year deals and will have to prove their value to the franchise for a new contract. Talbot will be the chief goaltender who must prove that last year’s disappointing season was a fluke as the 21-year-old went from a 2.39 GAA in 2016-17 to a dismal 3.02 GAA last year. His .919 save percentage in the 2016-17 season dropped to a .908. So which is he? If Talbot can rebound and show that he’s closer to the 2016-17 season, the team will likely lock him up for several more years, but if not the team may look elsewhere for goaltending help.

Another factor could be Koskinen’s presence. Brought over from the KHL, the 30-year-old veteran has been one of the top goalies in the KHL for the past six seasons, but whether he can make the conversion to the NHL is a whole new question. However, a good showing could change the way Edmonton looks at Talbot and his contract in one year. If neither is capable of locking down the No. 1 job, the team should find quite a few interesting names in the free agent market next season.

The team does have hopes that they can properly develop the speedy Rieder, who signed a one-year “prove it” deal, which could turn into a two-year deal considering that he’ll still be a restricted free agent next year. The 25-year-old has scored 12 or more goals for four seasons, but has never been able to take his game to another level and now is on his third organization in one year, which suggests that two organizations have given up on him. However, with his speed, he could be the perfect complement to the team’s top speed line.

Two Years Remaining

F Ryan Strome ($3.1MM, RFA)
F Zack Kassian ($1.95MM, UFA)
D Matt Benning ($1.9MM, RFA)
F Drake Caggiula ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Kyle Brodziak ($1.15MM, UFA)
D Keegan Lowe ($675K, UFA)

Strome was the key piece in the Jordan Eberle deal last offseason, but while he posted moderate numbers, he hasn’t yet proven that he will be a significant part of the future of the Oilers. The forward’s production continues to decline. The 25-year-old posted 13 goals, the same he did a year ago, but he also played a full season this year, as opposed to just 69 games in 2016-17. However, no one is quite sure what his role will be going forward although the team has two years to figure it out. Is he a top-six winger, who can put up a large number of goals or a bottom-six center? Caggiula has a similar issue. Signed as an undrafted free agent out of the University of North Dakota, Caggiula has improved, posting 13 goals himself last year, but hasn’t been able to provide the breakout season the Oilers are looking for out of their youth. The 24-year-old struggled with consistency throughout the year as he had several significant streaks where he didn’t even register a point and disappeared on the ice, but again, the team has two more years to figure out what it has in him.

The team did add Brodziak to its roster to provide veteran depth to their roster. The 34-year-old center had a impressive year last year, posting 10 goals and 33 points, his best season since the 2011-12 season. In just his second season, Benning received a significant uptick in minutes played after several teammates went down with injuries. The 24-year-old blueliner, known for his big checks, played well, but is not likely ready for a top-four role as yet. However, with injuries already mounting, that may become inevitable.Read more

Snapshots: Pacioretty, Lucic, Simmonds, Vilardi

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The Montreal Canadiens look like they have no choice but to trade their star player in Max Pacioretty. With the 29-year-old entering the final year of his contract and little interest from Montreal to lock him up to a long-term deal, this is their only chance to move him. However, what makes things challenging for general manager Marc Bergevin and the Canadiens is that Pacioretty is coming off a disappointing year in which he produced just 17 goals in injury-plagued season after posting four straight years of 30 or more goals.

However, time is not Bergevin’s friend and the team has little choice but to try to move his contract now rather than wait to trade him as a rental in February. NBC Sports Joey Alfieri suggests five teams that might be good fits for Pacioretty with the Chicago Blackhawks leading the way. Pacioretty would be the perfect fit for Chicago considering the team’s biggest acquisition this offseason has been backup goaltender Cam Ward. However, the Blackhawks might be challenged to put together a quality package for Pacioretty.

However, another more interesting option would be the New Jersey Devils, who have the cap space to make it work and Pacioretty, a native of Connecticut – a mere 70 miles away — might be willing to stay with a team that already has an intruiging cast including Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall.

  • In a recent podcast on Spittin’ Chiclets, Edmonton Oilers forward Milan Lucic talked about his disappointing season in Edmonton which has his name and his contract being thrown around in potential trade rumors. Regardless, Lucic had nothing but great things to say about the Oilers’ organization and takes a lot of the blame for his poor season. Lucic, who signed a seven-year, $42MM deal in 2016, still has five years remaining at $6MM AAV. However, after posting 23 goals and 50 points in the first year of his deal, Lucic’s numbers took a nosedive as he tallied just 10 goals and 34 points and he didn’t miss a single game all season. “I think it was definitely more of a mental thing,” Lucic said. “It was almost like everything that could have gone wrong went wrong for our team and for me personally and it was the snowball effect or the quicksand effect. I think my mindset got very negative last year. So I was almost my own worst enemy, where this year I’m just going in with a happy, healthier mindset.”
  • Dave Isaac of the Cherry Hill Courier-Post writes that Philadelphia Flyers general manager Ron Hextall has kept a close on the New York Islanders and John Tavares situation and isn’t interested in letting any of his players go. With winger Wayne Simmonds entering the final year of his contract, will probably price himself out of Philadelphia and the fact that he likely will end up on the team’s third line this year, don’t be surprised if Hextall trades Simmonds at the trade deadline next year. The 29-year-old has put up 28 or more goals for the past four years in Philadelphia, but struggled with nagging injuries last year, tallying 24 goals.
  • The Athletic’s Lisa Dillman reports that Los Angeles Kings prospect Gabe Vilardi will not be participating in the World Junior Showcase for Hockey Canada after Vilardi suffered a back injury. While not considered serious, Vilardi has had issues with his back before as he missed all but 32 games this past year with the OHL Kingston Frontenacs. Vilardi, the team’s first-round pick in 2017, will have a chance to break into the Kings’ lineup if he has a good showing in training camp.

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part II

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third of the league; here are the contracts that each team would most like to trade, from Detroit to Ottawa:

Detroit Red Wings: Frans Nielsen – four years, $21MM remaining

As speculated by some readers in the comments section, it was no mistake that Part I ended with Dallas. Detroit deserved both some extra consideration and to lead off an article about poor contracts. There is an argument to be made that almost every single player age 28 and over on the Red Wings roster is signed to a bad contract for one reason or another. Detroit is a team that ranks towards the bottom of the standings and towards the top of the salary cap and that is not just bad luck. However, some are much worse than others and they are so bad that it is tough to choose between them. Take this scenario: Player A scored 35 points in 75 games last season. It was 14 points more than the season prior, including six more goals, and Player A also led the team in hits. He is 31 years old and signed for five more years at $4.25MM per. Player B scored 33 points in 79 games last season. It was eight points less than the season prior, and Player B also had the worst face-off percentage among the team’s centers. He is 34 years old and signed for four more years at $5.25MM per. Still undecided about which contract the team would rather trade? Player A is a Michigan native and career Red Wing and Player B is entering only his third year after signing a lucrative free agent contract. Player A of course is perennial whipping boy Justin Abdelkader. Yes, the Abdelkader contract is terrible. At no point in his career has he been worth his current contract value. Yet, he improved last season, is younger and brings a defensive element to his game, and is also loyal to the current administration – the call of the question after all is which contract the team would most like to trade. That would instead be Player B, Frans Nielsen, who at 34 is predictably declining and last year made more than Abdelkader for less production and there is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue. The team rewarded Adbelkader for years of service, whereas they took a gamble on Nielsen that hasn’t paid off. One of those moves is far more regrettable. Nielsen is the guy, but he only narrowly edged out Abdelkader and defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who also has relative age and Detroit roots to his advantage.

Edmonton Oilers: Milan Lucic – five years, $30MM remaining

The Oilers can refute trade rumors surrounding Milan Lucic all they want. The truth of the matter is that GM Peter Chiarelli signed Lucic hoping that he could both produce with and protect Connor McDavid in Edmonton as he did for David Krejci in Boston. The only problem is that the 30-year-old power forward can no longer keep up with a player of McDavid’s caliber. Lucic managed to score 34 points last season, tied for fourth on the team, but that is nowhere near what is expected of a $6MM player, especially when he scored 50 in year one with the Oilers and topped that mark many times with the Bruins. Edmonton still may be holding out hope that Lucic can turn it around and be just as much of a scoring threat as he is a physical threat, but make no mistake that the team would be quick to get rid of his contract if the right deal came along. In contrast, the team would be far more hesitant to move a hefty contract like defenseman Andrej Sekera who has been good and injury-prone, rather than healthy and underwhelming.

Florida Panthers: Roberto Luongo – four years, $18.13MM remaining

Florida is a tough one. Dale Tallon has done a good job of locking up his core long-term and, despite being right up against the cap, there are few egregious contracts on the roster right now. Give it a few years and maybe Michael Matheson will hold this title, but for now it goes to Roberto Luongo by default. Of course, Luongo is beloved in Florida and the team doesn’t even have to carry the whole of his cap hit, with the Vancouver Canucks retaining $800K each year. However, the reality is that Luongo will turn 40 this season and it will be only the first of four years left on his deal. The Panthers have almost $8MM committed to two goalies for the next few years and the other, James Reimer, is younger and outplayed Luongo in 2016-17 and in more games to boot. While they both fought injuries this past season, it was Luongo back on top performance-wise, but the impressive numbers he did post came in just 35 appearances versus Reimer’s 44. Florida paying over $4.5MM per year to a backup goalie in his forties just doesn’t make sense and the team would be better off moving forward with just Reimer and Michael Hutchinson if they could find a way to trade Luongo. Another reason this contract is bad: both the Panthers and Canucks will be hit with cap recapture penalties if Luongo retires prior to 2022.

Los Angeles Kings: Dustin Brown – four years, $23.5MM remaining

For the first time in years, Kings fans are feeling good about Dustin Brown. That is why now is the perfect time to trade him. Brown had been the bane of L.A.’s existence for four years, registering no more than 36 points each year while eating up $5.875MM in cap space, when he finally broke out of his funk in 2017-18 with a massive 61-point season and one of the league’s best plus/minus ratings. The question now is whether the past four years were an aberration with this season setting a new baseline or will Brown regress back to his bottom-six production. With a cap-strapped roster full of expensive contracts for older players, L.A. can’t take the risk of keeping Brown around if the right opportunity presents itself. They would be forced to trade the career King if a taker came forward rather than hold out hope that he doesn’t revert back to his old ways of being drastically overpaid.

Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise – seven years, $52.77MM remaining

When the Wild signed 28-year-old’s Zach Parise and Ryan Suter to matching 13-year contracts worth almost $100MM apiece, they knew that those deals would have dark days at some point in the future. However, they never could have imagined that Parise’s decline would come so soon. Parise remains one of the most popular players on the team, but injuries have kept him off the ice and affected his play when on the ice over the ice and his stock is falling quickly. Parise has never been able to reach the peaks he enjoyed in New Jersey, but he still produced at a high level over his first four seasons with the team. The past two years have been a different story and Parise appears to be trending in the wrong direction. Now 33, Parise isn’t totally beyond help and could turn it around. If back at 100%, Parise has enough natural ability and enough talent around him to still be a $7.5MM player. However, it would be nearly impossible for Minnesota to ever move the behemoth that is his contract so, if somehow they received an offer, they would take it without a second thought. Fan favorite or not, there is too much risk associated with Parise moving forward.

Montreal Canadiens: Shea Weber – seven years, $55MM remaining

I know what you’re thinking and yes, the Carey Price contract doesn’t look great right now. However, an extension of any length and value for any player coming off an injury-riddled season would bring a skewed perception. Price has been one of the best goalies in the league for years and one bad season doesn’t change that. Will he lose that title in the next eight years? For sure, but it would be a shock to see the Canadiens move their poster boy any time soon. Their #1 defenseman is another question though. When Montreal acquired Shea Weber for P.K. Subban, they never could have anticipated that his body would break down so soon after. Injuries cost Weber all but 26 games last season and he will miss the beginning of 2018-19 as well. Weber doesn’t seem like the type of player who will retire early, but there is no guarantee that these injuries won’t slow him down significantly for the remainder of his contract. In fact, the only guarantee is that he will slow down over the next seven years. At $7.86MM, the Canadiens need Weber to be his dynamic two-way self. The team already has one overpaid stay-at-home defenseman in Karl Alzner and can’t afford another. If they could move Weber, they would.

Nashville Predators: None

GM David Poile flat out doesn’t sign bad contracts. Criticize the deals for Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris if you like, but the bargain contracts throughout the rest of the lineup have allowed Poile to overpay for reliable centers and that is a team-building model that anyone can get behind.

New Jersey Devils: Corey Schneider – four years, $24MM remaining

The easy answer is that the Devils don’t feel any pressure to trade anyone on the roster. They currently have the lowest payroll in the league with nearly every player signed to a fair deal. Those who are overpriced – Travis Zajac and Andy Greene – play important leadership role and the only player signed to a substantially long-term deal is electric young blue liner Damon Severson. The one and only player that sticks out as a potential long-term cap problem is starting goaltender Corey Schneider. This may surprises some; after all Schneider trails only Tuukka Rask among active save percentage leaders. Schneider had been elite since arriving in New Jersey, but something started to change in 2016-17. His SV% fell to .908 and his GAA inflated to 2.82 and then things only got worse last season with a SV% of .907 and a GAA of 2.93. He was also limited to just 40 appearances this year and was outplayed by journeyman Keith Kinkaid. The Devils can’t count on Kinkaid to repeat his 2017-18 performance moving forward and if Schneider’s back-to-back bad years are more than a fluke, they can’t depend on him for four more years either. He’s not going to be a $6MM backup either. New Jersey will give Schneider the time he needs to return to form, but they may not hesitate if the right trade comes their way as well.

New York Islanders: Andrew Ladd – five years, $27.5MM remaining

The Islanders without John Tavares are a totally different animal. A six-year, $30MM extension for Josh Bailey now looks bad. A $5.75MM cap hit this season for free agents Leo Komarov and Valtteri Filppula signed to make up for Tavares’ lost production looks bad. The likes of Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, and Matt Martin now look worse on a team that needs more offense and less grit. However, the one contract that looked miserable well before Tavares bolted to Toronto is Andrew Ladd and it is only going to get much worse. The veteran forward was intended to find chemistry with Tavares when he was signed to a seven-year, $38.5MM contract two years ago. Instead, Ladd has just 60 points over the past two seasons combined and has by all accounts been relegated to a bottom-six role. The 32-year-old will now be asked to take a bigger role in Tavares’ stead and that is a scary proposition. The Islanders aren’t in any cap trouble, but the team should be thinking rebuild and would likely take any offer at all to rid themselves of Ladd.

New York Rangers: Brendan Smith – three years, $13.05MM remaining

Has any free agent contract in recent memory soured as quickly as Brendan Smith’s? Smith signed a four-year deal with the Rangers last June and was expected to play a top-four role for the team for years to come. By February, he had been placed on waivers and buried in the AHL. Smith played in only 44 games with New York and saw less and less ice time as the season wore on and he continued to turn the puck over at an alarming rate and cost his team goals. Now what? One would assume that Smith will be given a second chance this season, but the relationship between he and the team may be beyond repair. There is no doubt that the Rangers would take a re-do on that deal and would move him if possible. Marc Staal is another player that New York wouldn’t mind moving, but as a player who can eat minutes and provide solid play most of the time, his $5.7MM contract seems like nothing next to Smith’s $4.35MM deal.

Ottawa Senators: Bobby Ryan – four years, $29MM remaining

No contract in the league has become as notorious for being labeled a “bad deal” that the team is desperate to trade like Bobby Ryan’s. The Senators are so determined to move on from Ryan that they are trying to force Erik Karlsson trade suitors to take the overpaid forward as well. At one point in time, $7.25MM per year for Ryan seemed like a fair deal. At 23 years old he was a 71-point player with the Anaheim Ducks and even after moving to Ottawa, Ryan started his tenure with three straight seasons in the 50-point range. However, the last two years have been very different. Ryan has only suited up for 62 games in each campaign and has looked like a different player on offense. At his best, he looks disinterested and lucky to be in the right place at the right time and at his worst he costs his team goals. Ryan has managed to register only 58 points combined over the past two years; he had 56 alone in 2015-16. Ryan may just need a change of scenery to jump start what used to be dynamic goal-scoring game, but the Senators don’t care about that. All he is to them is a waste of cap space and of owner Eugene Melnyk’s dwindling wealth. They want him gone at any cost.

Look out for Part III of this three-part series early next week…

 

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