Cost Per Point: The Best Value Deals In The NHL
When working with a salary cap, especially one that has not been increasing as expected in recent year, it is vital for general managers to get the most production out of their players. Teams with players who meet the expected level of production implied by their contracts and teams that lack wasted dollars in bad, expensive deals are often the same teams that thrive in today’s NHL. Forget market size or free agent appeal, the key to a winning franchise nowadays is getting the best bang for your buck on every player on the roster. While no player can be fully quantified by their scoring, cost per point is an easy way to look at which players are producing at the most team-friendly rate and which have been more of a cap space killer than a positive member of the team. Thanks to CapFriendly, that information is readily available to fans and NHL executives alike.
The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. For the second year in a row, St. Louis Blues superstar Vladimir Tarasenko was the poster boy for this standard, coming in at exactly $100K/point with 75 points on a $7.5MM deal. Winnipeg’s Bryan Little and New Jersey’s Adam Henrique are two other notable names that hit the mark exactly, while phenoms like Sidney Crosby and Duncan Keith landing close to the $100K/point mark show that it is an accurate expectation.
However, the exception to the rule is obviously entry-level contracts. It is no secret that drafting and developing well is the best way to improve you team, beginning with affordable scoring from players on their rookie deals. Nowhere is that more apparent than in cost per point, where nine of the top ten and 17 of the top 20 best contracts were rookie deals. To no one surprise, 20-year-old MVP Connor McDavid and his 100 points on a $925K entry-level contract was far and away the best bargain in hockey. McDavid cost the Oilers only $9,250 per point in 2016-17. That will all change soon, as McDavid is set to begin an eight-year, $100MM contract in 2018-19, after which a 100-point campaign will cost Edmonton $125,000/point, closer to the expectations of a standard contract. For now, the Oilers can enjoy one more year of McDavid likely being the best deal in the NHL, as well as the best player. Entry-level deals joining McDavid in the top ten last year (in order) were Viktor Arvidsson, Artemi Panarin, teammate Leon Draisaitl, Conor Sheary, David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Patrik Laine. Not all entry-level deals are created equal, so while Draisaitl and Pastrnak were second and fourth respectively in entry-level scoring, they were also on the ELC maximum deal of $925K and of slightly lesser value to their teams than the likes of Arvidsson ($632K) and Sheary ($667.5K). Panarin had the best contract in the league in 2015-16 and fell only to third with $10,980/point for the Chicago Blackhawks. Now in Columbus and on a two-year, $12MM deal, the Blue Jackets have to hope that they can continue to get 70+ point seasons out of him to maximize the value of that deal.
So, entry-level contracts aside, who was the best contract in hockey last season? Another easy answer, former Blue Jacket gamble Sam Gagner. After a horrendous 2015-16 campaign with the Philadelphia Flyers, Gagner struggled to find a new team last summer, eventually settling on a $650K “show me” deal with Columbus. Right away people tagged that contract, for a six-time 40+ point scorer, as an absolute bargain, even if Gagner simply bounced back to normal production. He did one better, posting a career-high 50 points for the Jackets and coming in at $13K/point, good enough for sixth in the NHL. Gagner has since moved on to the Vancouver Canucks, signing a three-year, $9.45MM contract on July 1st. However, if he is able to continue to produce at 40-50 point levels over that deal, his $3.15MM cap hit will remain a great bargain deal. Behind Gagner, another player on the move this summer, former Florida Panther and current Vegas Golden Knight Jonathan Marchessault had the 13th-ranked cost per point last year at $14,706/point. Marchessault had a breakout year, netting 51 points in the first season of a two-year, $1.5MM deal. Rather than take advantage of one more $750K season for a 30-goal scorer, the Panthers allowed Marchessault to be selected in the Expansion Draft and Vegas surely hopes he continues to be one of the best values in hockey in 2017-18. The final contract in the top 20 not belonging to an entry-level player, and the only 35+ veteran contract in the top 50, belongs to Marchessault’s replacement in Florida, Radim Vrbata. Vrbata returned home to Arizona last season after a down year in Vancouver the season prior, and the swift 36-year old proceeded to score 55 points, more than double his previous year’s total. On a one-year deal with a $1MM base salary, that only cost the Coyotes $18,182/point last season. Now at a base salary of $2.5MM in Florida, the Panthers hope that Vrbata isn’t starting to slow down just yet. Other impressive value contracts included Patrick Eaves, whose breakout season in Dallas led to a trade and subsequent extension with the Anaheim Ducks, Derek Ryan, who shocked the hockey world with 29 points for the Carolina Hurricanes in his first full NHL season at age 30, and a quartet of recently re-signed RFAs in Richard Panik, Ryan Dzingel, Ryan Spooner, and Jordan Martinook.
With the good comes the bad, and there were certainly some poor value contracts in the NHL last year. Many of the worst belong to players who were injured or AHL depth players that saw only limited time. With zero points in 13 games with a $1.25MM cap hit, Tampa Bay Lightning winger Erik Condra‘s value was not even quantifiable it was so bad, and at the highest salary of any player who went pointless last season. Limited to just 18 games with only four points, another Bolts forward, Ryan Callahan, was one of the worst values due to injury with $1.45MM per point on his $5.8MM cap hit. However, the truly worst contract in the NHL has to belong to a player that player a majority of the season. Sadly for a Detroit fan base that is already feeling pretty down-and-out, that designation belongs to Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who began a six-year, $30MM extension by scoring about a third less points for the third season in a row. With 12 points in 82 games at $5MM, DeKeyser’s $416.7K/point is pretty ugly. The Buffalo Sabres struck out twice on the blue line, with both Dmitry Kulikov (five points in 47 games at $4.33MM) and Josh Gorges (six points in 66 games at $3.9MM) coming in at $866.7K/point and $650K/point respectively, though neither is known as a major point producer. The worst forward contract? Andrew Desjardins may not have been relied upon as a full-time player with much ice time last season with the Chicago Blackhawks, but with only one point in 46 games, $800K/point, it’s not difficult to see why he remains an unsigned free agent.
While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric.
Winnipeg’s Forward Depth And Versatility Valuable In Trade Market
The Winnipeg Jets finished just 7 points out of a playoff berth this season. Like the Islanders (41 wins) and Lightning (42 wins), the Jets (40 wins) were on the verge of making it to the show in the final weeks. As such, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff didn’t feel the necessity to spend large this off-season, nor make any substantial trades. Cheveldayoff shored up the goaltending position with Steve Mason on a two-year contract, and hopes that will be enough to push the team over the edge. Still, if management feels that improvements should be made, the team has the assets and the versatility up front to do so. It’s uncertain whether Dmitry Kulikov will be enough to shore up what was a poor-performing defensive group last year. A spare forward could be floated for more help in their own end, even though their 6 slots seem safely filled at the moment.
Particularly at the center position, the Jets have one of the more enviable situations league-wide. By my count, the Jets have 9 roster players who can theoretically slot in for center duties. Mark Scheifele, Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault, Shawn Matthias, Adam Lowry, Michael Sgarbossa, Marko Dano and Brandon Tanev all can play up the middle. Scheifele is obviously the first line center, and Little is safely pegged at number two. After that, things get a bit interesting. Perreault finished the season while spending some time on the wing, and his goal scoring dried up – he only had 22 in the past two seasons. His point production is still locked in at 40+, but considering his $4.125 MM cap hit for the next four seasons, maybe now is the time to opt out. Matthias is interesting primarily because he only has one season remaining before he hits unrestricted free agency. He can slot on the third or fourth lines and provide mediocre depth production, but his marginal worth wouldn’t be enough to land a difference maker in a trade.
Little also sees his current deal expire at the conclusion off 2017-18, and his new contract could be relatively hefty. With Blake Wheeler due another contract hike after 2018-19, and Jacob Trouba looking for a raise after this year, there is the possibility Little could be moved for the right package. Still, he’s one of the more consistent players on the Jets and has never known another franchise. If he were to be shopped, the return could be quite pricey for many competing teams. He’s perceived as a top-end #2 center and his internal value is quite steep. Following that, Lowry will continue to build on his progression last year, where he tallied 29 points. He’s yet to put it all together, but his size and still tender age of 24 wouldn’t make him the first target for movement. Dano is far more comfortable on the wing, and he’s likely going nowhere. Sgarbossa is essentially a non-factor, as is Tanev, in terms of drawing league interest.
Another thing to keep in mind is that Nicolas Petan should find himself a regular this season, and many expect him to push for that 3rd line center position. As with many of the other names, he can slot on the wing instead, but that might not be the best use of his talents long-term. If he forces Lowry down the depth chart further, does that make a player like Little more expendable for the right move? What would the interest be like for a player of Perreault’s caliber? Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that we’ll know until well into the season. Cheveldayoff has been firm in staying the course with the young and promising Jets, and he’s more likely to wait at least until the conclusion of training camp before making any major transaction.
Overpriced: The Worst Contracts Of 2016-17
Recently we took a look at some of the best contracts in the league based on cost-per-point, and which off-season contract would hold that title this year. Patrick Sharp easily won the poll, and could provide great value on his $800K contract ($1MM with performance bonus). Among players still signed, excluding entry-level deals, Jon Marchessault has a good chance to repeat if he’s given the opportunity in Vegas. He was one of the brightest spots for Florida last year, after agreeing to a two-year deal that pays him just $750K per season. 
So what about the other side of the spectrum? Who are the most expensive players relative to their performance in the NHL? Luckily CapFriendly has a helpful tool that not only lists the per-point cost, but can standardize it to what it would have cost had the player spent 82 games in the NHL. That way a player like Milan Michalek who scored just one point won’t be penalized for the fact that he was buried in the minors all year.
As one would expect, this list is led by a glut of defensive defensemen who are paid more for what they do in their own end than their offense. Still, you can see how teams can get in trouble with players like Josh Gorges and Marc Staal costing more than $500K per point this season. The two combined for 16 on the year.
Interestingly another Buffalo defender is high on the list, as Dmitry Kulikov recorded just five points all season. Despite that $497K cost-per-point rate, he still locked down a deal that will continue to pay him $4.33MM for the next several years. He’s a bounce-back candidate for sure, but it was surprising to see his terrible year not affect his price tag.
If you eliminate defensemen, the picture becomes even uglier. Regardless of role, forwards are still expected to contribute at least somewhat on offense, especially those who earn hefty contracts. Andrew Desjardins leads the pack among players who spent the majority of the season in the NHL, scoring just a single point in his 46 games. He only cost the team $800K though, which means Carl Soderberg takes the cake as the worst contract in the league*.
Soderberg was paid $4.75MM last season and recorded just 14 points. He’s not expected to be a huge offensive producer, but the fact that Colorado had to pay more than $330K per point this season was ridiculous. His fall off was immediate and precipitous, as he’s just a year removed from a 51-point year, but if he can’t climb back up the three remaining years on his contract look about as bad as they come. His no-trade clause has dropped to just a list of 10 teams he can’t be traded to, but if his production continues he’s more likely a buyout candidate than anything else.
Interestingly, not too far down the list is Bobby Ryan who at $7.8MM is one of the highest-paid players in the league. His 25-point season is completely unacceptable, though many will forget it due to his postseason performance. Ryan recorded 15 points in 19 playoff contests, but is now entering his thirties with five more years on his deal. Perhaps he was playing with an injury, or it’s just an aberration, but Ryan is expected to post nearly double his regular season performance. While he’s clearly not a 30-goal scorer any longer, 13 is just not acceptable.
So who will lead the list this year? Well, early favorites may be Tomas Plekanec in Montreal, who still has a cap-hit of $6MM this season and will play the year at age-35, and Marian Gaborik coming off an injury and turning 36 during the year. Even the new signing of Patrick Marleau to a $6.25MM cap hit could easily backfire for the Maple Leafs, and end up being the most expensive per-point forward in the league.
*Bryan Bickell’s $4MM deal could have been listed as the worst contract, though he was omitted due to his diagnosis of multiple sclerosis. Had Bickell been healthy enough to play he likely still could have ended up at the top, but that is far from certain.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Jets Hope Mason, Kulikov Will Send Winnipeg To Playoffs
Offensively, the Winnipeg Jets have few worries. They finished seventh in the NHL in goals scored, averaging 3.0 goals a game. Afterall, they have several talented players including Patrik Laine, who scored 36 goals in his rookie season after being drafted second overall in 2016 behind Auston Matthews. The team also got 32 goals from 24-year-old Mark Scheifele, 26 goals from veteran Blake Wheeler, 25 goals from 21-year-old wing Nikolaj Ehlers, not to mention 21 goals from veteran Bryan Little. So, goal scoring is in good shape You can check it off.
Defense is a totally different story as Winnipeg was fourth in goals against as the team allowed an average of 3.11 goals per game. They also were 11th in shots allowed, having allowed 31.0 shots per game. The Jets, who made two big acquisitions during the offseason have high hopes they can change their franchise’s fortunes this season, according to Adam Gretz of NBC Sports. The team signed veteran free agent goaltender Steve Mason to a two-year, $8.2MM deal and also signed enigmatic defenseman Dmitry Kulikov to a 3-year, $13MM deal.
The team hopes Mason can steady their issues in goal. The team has struggled to get consistent play from that position for years from the struggles of Ondrej Pavelec to Michael Hutchinson to Connor Hellebuyck. Pavelec, who had been the starter for years had always been inconsistent, but after a great year in 2014-15 in which he finished with a 2.28 GAA and a .920 save percentage, his production tailed off, moving to a backup role and this past year spent more time with the AHL’s Manitoba Moose than with the Jets. He signed with the New York Rangers this offseason. Hutchinson, 24, showed some promise in the 2014-15 season as well, but has struggled as the backup for the past two years. He finished this past year with a 2.92 GAA and a .903 save percentage in 28 games and will likely spend some time in the AHL this season. Hellebuyck, also 24, showed promise as the backup last season, but struggled when handed the starting job this year. He finished the season with a 2.89 GAA and .907 save percentage.
While Mason’s season in Philadephia was hardly phenomenal, he did finish with a 2.66 GAA and a .908 save percentage in 58 games. The hope is that Mason can provide the stability that the team needs to reach the playoffs. Whether Hellebuyck will be given an opportunity to split time with Mason remains to be seen.
Kulikov’s addition is another key to the team’s success. Often listed as one of the worst free agency signings due to Kulikov’s struggles in recent years, the Jets have high hopes that he will break out in Winnipeg. Despite missing time with a bone bruise, Kulikov had one of the worst seasons with Buffalo this year. In 47 games, he had just two goals and three assists. However, the hope is that if Kulikov can step up and with the return of Tyler Myers as well as the dependability of Toby Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien, Josh Morrissey and Jacob Trouba, the Jets defense should be capable of improving, which should be enough to get them into the playoffs.
The Prettiest And Ugliest Contracts Of July 1
Although hindsight is usually the only way to be certain as to when a deal flops, it seems reasonable to make an immediate assessment as to what deals will backfire or pay dividends. Today was a far more reserved July 1st than the league has accustomed itself to, but there are still a few contracts that stick out – for better or for worse.
Pretty: Patrick Sharp – Chicago Blackhawks – $800,000, 1 year.
This doesn’t seem fair. Chicago has been trapped in cap jail, and suddenly, here arrives a productive asset at nearly no cost. Sharp, coming off an injury-filled season, is coming back to the Windy City at a dirt-cheap rate. If he can even find half of the production he had during his last outing, this is a monumental steal. There’s no risk here, and a ton of upside. He still has the hands and hockey IQ to contribute.
Ugly: Steve Mason – Winnipeg Jets – $4,1 MM per, 2 years
Winnipeg was seemingly the last team standing when the music stopped playing. With a goaltending market that inspired no one, the Jets decided today to place their faith in Steve Mason. Coming off a .908 save percentage year, it’s hard to see him doing much worse. But behind the Winnipeg defense, it’s hard to see him doing much better. The pricetag is what really seals this as poor value relative to play. Luckily, if things don’t pan out, it’s only for two seasons. Connor Hellebuyck better prepare himself just in case. Taken in tandem with the highly questionable Dmitry Kulikov contract, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff maybe should have taken the day off.
Pretty: Radim Vrbata – Florida Panthers – $2.5 MM per, 1 year
Vrbata is absolutely a top-six winger, and he was signed for bottom-six money. He can assist a powerplay, and slot up and down a lineup as needed. Florida desperately needed to re-coup some scoring on the cheap after letting so many of their top point-getters walk or be lost to Vegas. With bonuses added in, this becomes a good prove-it deal for Vrbata as well. Solid value was found here for both parties and for a 20 goal, 55 point player, Florida will happily run away from this one.
Ugly: Trevor Daley – Detroit – $3.18MM per, 3 years
Daley was bereft of ice time in these playoffs, and he was competing with some really underperforming defensemen. It’s not like he had a good regular season either – his Corsi For % fell off a proverbial cliff (53.7 to 46.1), and the eye test certainly agreed. He put up decent points, 5 goals and 14 assists through 56 contests, and he can still skate well enough. But long are the days where he can make a difference on special teams or drive an offense with confidence. His turnover rate and inconsistency are not what Detroit needed to stabilize the back-end, and Daley will be 36 at the conclusion of the deal. The last time Daley cut a lucrative free agent deal, Chicago had to offload him due to poor play.
Pretty: Kevin Shattenkirk – New York Rangers – $6.65MM per, 4 years
The money could end up being a slight overpayment, but at the moment it is solid value. Shattenkirk finished 4th in points among defensemen last season and St. Louis never looked the same after he left. He could instantly and single-handedly transform the Rangers’ defense from the jumbled mess they were last season. He will reliably feed the puck to the forward group, and be the quarterback of the Ranger powerplay. What makes this a beautiful deal, however, is the term. If Shattenkirk has a bad year or doesn’t fit the system, New York is not on the hook for eternity. One of the biggest pitfalls in free agency with the bigger names is offering far too many years on contracts. Time and time again, it burns teams who were looking to attract a big fish. GM Jeff Gorton deserves credit here for not going insane with the length, although he was helped by Shattenkirk’s strong desire to return home.
Ugly: Dan Girardi – Tampa Bay – $3 MM per, 2 years
Nothing about this deal makes sense. Girardi earned his buyout from New York through brutal play and horrible possession numbers. Of all the NHL defensemen who played more than 40 games, only Rasmus Ristolainen of Buffalo and Luke Schenn of Arizona had worse Corsi Against per 60 minutes – Girardi finished with 65.11 (versus a 51.67 CF60). By no metric other than shot blocks was he an effective player. He might be worth a flier in hopes of regaining form, but he’s not worth much more. This agreement is made even worse by the fact that Girardi will be stealing valuable playing time from a solid young defenseman like Slater Koekkoek or Jake Dotchin. Combined with the Chris Kunitz signing, this is a team that didn’t get any younger, or any better.
Dmitri Kulikov Signs With Winnipeg Jets
According to Darren Dreger of TSN, the Winnipeg Jets are closing in on a deal with defenseman Dmitry Kulikov. The deal is a three-year pact worth $4.33MM per season.
Kulikov is coming off a horrendous season in Buffalo, but has years of previously solid performance with the Florida Panthers in his career. He was expected to move into a top four role in Buffalo, but won’t be required to do the same in Winnipeg. Though the Jets did recently buy out Mark Stuart, Toby Enstrom is set to return and Josh Morrissey is ready for an even larger role.
By going after Kulikov, the Jets have bought a huge bounce-back candidate that could help their defense once again be among the deepest groups in the league. With the right-side depth of Dustin Byfuglien, Tyler Myers and Jacob Trouba they have three pairs that can play against nearly anyone in the league. That depth could come in handy if they want to get into the trade market, though their forward group also remains a deep group. In net, they’ve been linked heavily to Steve Mason, who should be able to form at least an average tandem with Connor Hellebuyck.
Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres
The free agent period is now less than one month away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of Buffalo’s free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agents:
F Marcus Foligno – At just 25 years old, Foligno will enter his seventh season with the Sabres organization in 2017-18. While his development has been slow, it’s also been steady, finishing each passing season with more points than the year before. Foligno isn’t the player who showed flashes of as a rookie in 2011-12, scoring 13 points in 14 games, but he’s carved out an important role in Buffalo as a reliable top-nine winger. 2016-17 marked a career-high 13 goals for Foligno, helped along by a team-best 13.4% shooting percentage, as well as his first 80+ game season. As always though, Foligno’s true value comes in his physical two-way game, where he had a career-best and team-leading 279 hits, career-high 57 blocked shots, which led all Buffalo forwards, and was a vital member of the penalty kill. Las year, the Sabres signed Foligno to just a one-year, $2.25MM contract, but after again proving his worth as a defensive forward and top-nine contributor, new Buffalo GM Jason Botterill should have no problem giving the homegrown product a multi-year deal worth $2.5-$3MM annually. Even with fellow priority RFA’s Zemgus Girgensons and Johan Larsson in need of raises, the Sabres have plenty of cap space and will give Foligno what he’s worth.
G Robin Lehner – The Sabres have no interest in letting Lehner go, but this off-season they need to either commit to the 25-year-old as their surefire starter or establish that they feel he is just a timeshare goalie at this point. Just two years ago, Buffalo traded a first-round pick to acquire Lehner from the Ottawa Senators. In his first year with the Sabres, he was excellent, posting a .924 save percentage and 2.47 GAA… but in only 21 games. Injuries limited Lehner to only a brief showing in 2015-16, but this past season he was able to see action in 59 games and again played well with a .920 save percentage and 2.68 GAA. With Chad Johnson gone, many expected that Lehner would play more this past season though. However, trade acquisition Anders Nilsson routinely outplayed Lehner all season long. The margin between the two wasn’t wide, but enough so that Nilsson managed to make 26 appearances, including 23 starts. The team has nonetheless stated that Lehner is their guy, but actions speak louder than words. The value and more so the term of Lehner’s contract this summer, as well as their negotiations with Nilsson, will speak volumes about their commitment to their supposed #1.
Other RFAs: F Zemgus Girgensons, F Johan Larsson, F Justin Kea, F Jean Dupuy, F Evan Rodrigues, D Brady Austin, G Linus Ullmark
Key Unrestricted Free Agents:
F Brian Gionta – The Buffalo captain may be 38 years old and have over 1000 NHL games under his belt, but he also just completed a full 82-game season and seventh on the team in scoring. At this point in his career, Gionta is not looking to re-locate and perhaps no team could use his veteran leadership and hockey intelligence more than the Sabres, who have few forwards over 30 and certain players in need of mentoring (i.e. Evander Kane). The Sabres have plenty of cap space to play with and are expected to fill holes throughout the roster via free agency, but they’ll have room to bring back their captain who is still capable of scoring 30-40 points and can play in all situations. He probably won’t get another three-year, $12.75MM contract, but if Gionta wants to be back, he will be.
G Anders Nilsson – The flip side of the situation with Lehner is that of Nilsson. Just a little over a year older than Lehner, Nilsson was finally given legitimate responsibility for the first time in his NHL career in 2016-17 and he flourished. His .923 save percentage and .267 GAA were just marginally better than Lehner, but a major step up from his previous performances. Perhaps the Sabres, who truly do need to commit to Lehner or not, are afraid that re-signing Nilsson would send the wrong message, but he has definitely earned that consideration. If the Sabres don’t bring back Nilsson, they’ll have to search for a veteran backup to the oft-injured Lehner anyway. It’s not a simple problem and how Boterill solves it will impact his start with the organization.
Other UFAs: D Cody Franson, D Dmitry Kulikov, D Taylor Fedun, D Erik Burgdoerfer, D Mat Bodie, F Derek Grant, F Cole Schneider, F Cal O’Reilly
Projected Cap Space: The Sabres currently have only $50.2MM committed to 2017-18 contracts by way of 11 forwards and five defensemen. (CapFriendly) The extensions for RFA’s Lehner, Foligno, Girgensons, and Larsson, all of whom will be safe from expansion, as well as roster hopefuls Alexander Nylander and Brady Austin will eat up some of that space. However, even if the cap ceiling remains at $73MM, Buffalo has nearly $23MM of space to work with and if Matt Moulson is an expansion casualty, as has been rumored, there’s another $5MM in relief. That should give them more than enough space to accommodate those young players, re-sign Gionta, extend or replace Nilsson, and still have the flexibility to explore the free agent market for better fits on the blue line than Franson or Kulikov and a game-changer up front.
Florida Panthers’ Potential Targets
The Florida Panthers were expected to do far better this past season than they ultimately did. Not unlike their Floridian rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, many were looking to this franchise to dominate a week Atlantic division. Looking back on a season with a coaching change, losing streaks, an lots of turmoil, how does the team recover and adjust their roster going forward?
Florida’s offensive core as of this moment consists of Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Vincent Trocheck, with Nick Bjugstad, Reilly Smith, and the surprising Jonathan Marchessault feeling content in their roles. Their defensive core is essentially just Aaron Ekblad, with a decent if unremarkable group surrounding him. Keith Yandle has looked adequate but nowhere near worth his $6.35 MM contract, locked in until 2023. Unfortunately, that contract looks like an albatross that is there to stay. Jason Demers was solid if unremarkable, and the group as a whole struggled with consistency. With Thomas Vanek likely to look for a payday elsewhere, a declining Jaromir Jagr, and a brutal internal cap, it bodes questioning whether Florida will be able to compete for a playoff spot next season. Their youngsters performed above offensive expectations, with the notable exception of Huberdeau. Barkov, Trocheck, and Marchessault all broke 50 points. Yet the team still finished 14 points out of the playoffs, giving up .46 more goals than they scored in an average 60 minute game.
Florida needs to spend a moderate amount of money to acquire solid 3rd-line point producers. Minor league callups can fill the gaps on the fourth line to an extent, but rolling with only two viable offensive forward groups is a recipe for disaster in today’s NHL. They absolutely need a game-changer up front to provide run support for the young core. They might also look to bolster their D. Here are some potential targets the Panthers should consider for 2017-18, instead of spending precious dollars on the fading Jagr:
F – Ilya Kovalchuk – UFA/KHL
As mentioned by colleague Holger Stolzenberg, Ilya Kovalchuk is a definite possibility for Florida. They have the cap space to accomodate the sort of money he will be looking for, and they have a talented young group that could easily compete for a playoff run given the right moves. There are few players more dynamic with the puck on their stick than Kovalchuk. His savvy and remarkably consistent point production would be tailor made for the Panthers team in need of a true #1 threat as Barkov continues to progress. Jagr is that no longer, but replacing his insight and experience would be difficult to do. Kovalchuk hits all the checks in terms of need for Florida, and would help launch them back into the playoff conversation single-handedly.
D – Dmitry Kulikov – UFA
Kulikov had an absolutely awful season for the Buffalo Sabres, but he would be a very cheap reclamation project for his old stomping ground. He didn’t exit the Panthers with a good performance, either, posting only 17 points in 2015-16 and a terrible 46.8 Corsi For Percentage. Kulikov had one year remaining with the Sabres at $4.3 MMl, and posted a 5 points and a -26 through 47 games. And yet, he was part of the group that propelled the team into the post-season and a Game 7 that could’ve gone either way. He’s a smooth skating 26 year-old defenseman who moves the puck with a decent offensive hockey IQ. He makes mistakes in his own zone, but he pushed the pace of the game in a way that is difficult to replace. His contract would be dirt-cheap and there is always the possibility he finds his groove back in the Sunshine State.
F – Matt Duchene – Colorado Avalanche
Matt Duchene is another talented player who had a truly down year. Duchene was rumored to be moved for months, but come deadline, GM Joe Sakic didn’t find the pieces he was looking for. In Florida, there is a definite fit if the Panthers are willing to take the risk. They have the defensive pieces the Avalanche would want in return, and Duchene would provide another dynamic offensive force to a struggling offense. Sakic is almost certain to pull the trigger eventually, so the Panthers GM will simply need to be persistent. Duchene can set up plays with the best of them when he is on his game. His speed and infectious energy would also fit in well with the group of youngsters down south.
F – Justin WIlliams – UFA
WIlliams is almost certain to be a top commodity in a weak UFA class. However, his wealth of playoff experience would come in quite handy for this team and hasn’t showed signs of slowing down. He would add an element of grit to the lineup, as well, rounding out their offense. He would be a wonderful mentor for the likes of Barkov, Trochec, and oothers. He can slot up and down the roster and is practically a lock to score at least 20 goals as a 35 year-old. If the Panthers find their way into the first round, a player of his mold would be certainly welcome in close contests. The main obstacle to this getting done is of course the price, which may prove too steep for a team in rebuild, low-cost mode. He also could want term at this stage of his playing career, and that could be a risky proposal if longer than 2 or 3 years.
Sabres Notes: Botterill, Head Coach Options
With Jason Botterill officially leaving the Pittsburgh Penguins organization to assume the GM duties in Buffalo, the rookie manager faces the tall task of turning a Sabres team that has failed to qualify for the postseason since 2010-11 into a legitimate Stanley Cup threat. His job is a little easier given the presence of franchise center Jack Eichel and a talented blue liner in Rasmus Ristolainen, who has the potential to be a top-pair defender for many years. However, the challenge that confronts Botterill is still daunting. Along those lines, Sportsnet’s Luke Fox identifies six high priority items he believes the new GM must tackle in his quest to build a winning organization.
First, and perhaps most obvious, the Sabres will have to hire a coach and given the reportedly tumultuous relationship former head coach Dan Bylsma had with many of his charges, getting the right guy behind the bench is critical to Buffalo’s future. Fox lists several names that have been floated in the media, with current Pittsburgh assistants Rich Tocchet and Jacques Martin standing out due to their prior working relationship with Botterill. Both men have prior head coaching experience and given the recent success each has enjoyed as members of the Penguins staff, either would be able to bring a winning mentality to Buffalo.
Additionally, Fox points out that Botterill will have to fix a defense corps that was a glaring weakness last season and is slated to see two regulars, Cody Franson and Dmitry Kulikov, depart as free agents. There will be options available this summer in free agency, Karl Alzner, Kevin Shattenkirk and Trevor Daley are among those specifically mentioned by the scribe, but likely won’t come cheap. Given the team’s salary cap situation – less than $23MM in projected space – and with Eichel and Sam Reinhart each needing new deals ahead of 2018-19, Botterill will have to be judicious with his cap dollars in the offseason.
All told, it’s an interesting take on Botterill’s situation with the Sabres, and well worth a full read.
In other Sabres news:
- Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News also has a suggestion for Botterill’s head coaching search, identifying Washington assistant coach Todd Reirden as “the perfect fit,” for the Sabres. Kennedy references that prior to joining the Capitals, Reirden served on Dan Bylsma‘s coaching staff in Pittsburgh where Botterill would have had a chance to get to know the former NHL defenseman. Additionally, the first-time GM is on record as saying he wants Buffalo to play an up-tempo brand of hockey that focuses on puck possession. As Kennedy points out, Reirden’s former employer, Washington, has been one of the league’s top teams in terms of possession in recent seasons. Reirden also guided one of the NHL’s top defense corps, with the Capitals allowing the fewest goals in the league in 2016-17. Botterill also said he is looking for a teacher and as Kennedy points out, Reirden has earned rave reviews in Washington with his help developing Nate Schmidt and Dmitry Orlov into quality defenseman. It’s also worth noting that with Buffalo believed to be in the market for blue liners, hiring Reirden might give them a leg up on the competition should they pursue pending Washington UFA defenders Karl Alzner and/or Kevin Shattenkirk.
- Lastly, Bill Hoppe of Buffalo Hockey Beat writes that Botterill intends to prioritize icing a competitive team in Rochester, believing that success in the AHL is a great tool in developing young talent. Botterill was a key figure for three seasons with Rochester and played with future Sabres Ryan Miller, Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy and Paul Gaustad with the Amerks. Those players would help guide the Sabres to back-to-back appearances in the Conference Final after the 2006-07 and 2007-08 campaigns. That was the last time Buffalo won even a playoff round, and they’ve made the postseason just twice in the 10 years since. Botterill also saw a strong feeder team payoff while in Pittsburgh, with young players like Conor Sheary, Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel, just to name a few, coming up from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton and making an immediate impact with the big club. Sheary and Rust won a Stanley Cup last season with Pittsburgh and the Penguins have a chance to repeat that feat as they begin their Eastern Conference final match against Ottawa later today.
East Notes: Crouse, Lappin, Addison
When the Florida Panthers shipped Lawson Crouse off to Arizona in exchange for a pair of draft picks and the Coyotes taking on Dave Bolland‘s cap hit, many people were shocked. Bolland was (and remains) on long-term injured reserve, without a clear picture on whether he’ll ever play hockey again. Crouse on the other hand was a 19-year old blue-chip prospect who looked like he had a long NHL career ahead of him as a prototypical power forward. Speaking to George Richards of the Miami Herald, Panthers GM Tom Rowe admitted it was tough to lose him:
We got criticized for giving up on a great young prospect but we had to. That contract was strangling us, cap-wise. When we traded him, our scouts were furious. I’m not going to lie. But we had to do something and that was trade Lawson.
Crouse has just 11 points this season for the Coyotes, but he’s gaining valuable experience as a teenager and still has a bright future ahead of him. Meanwhile the Panthers have already essentially used that cap space, as extensions for Aaron Ekblad, Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Huberdeau and Derek MacKenzie kick in next year.
- The New Jersey Devils have assigned Nick Lappin to the AHL today, after their loss last night to the Toronto Maple Leafs. The team is headed home for the next three games, as they continue to battle for position in the draft lottery. The team now sits 28th in the league, meaning they’ll have a solid shot at a top-5 pick in the draft this year.
- Montreal has signed Jeremiah Addison to a three-year, entry-level contract. The Windsor Spitfires forward is still in the OHL playoffs and will be playing at the Memorial Cup this year regardless of the outcome. Windsor hosts the tournament, and therefor gets an entry even without winning the OHL championship.
- The Buffalo Sabres will lose Rasmus Ristolainen for three games following his suspension, but as John Vogl of the Buffalo News writes, won’t actually be shorthanded in their next game. That’s because Kyle Okposo, William Carrier and Dmitry Kulikov are all ready to enter the lineup after being held out with various injuries. The Sabres take on the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday night.